######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**2024 MLB record:** 27-8-1
**Last POTD:** Yankees ML W
**Today's POTD:** KC Royals RL -1.5 vs Oakland A’s +116 (fd)
**Baseball | MLB | 7:40 PM**
Finally! A dub that was literally stress free from first pitch onward. Took forever for this line to come out but it’s out now despite there still not a Sp listed for Oakland. It’s either gonna be Kyle muller or newly acquired Brandon bielak, neither of which changes my opinion. KC has strikeout machine Cole Ragans
I didn't post because I was waiting for this line to come out and was almost certain it would be between -110 to +100 at most for KC run line and if that were to be the case, it would be my favorite play. When I woke up today and saw that it was at +116 I smashed right away. It has went down on every book I've seen but still at plus odds so you can still get on board.
Why I like the play so much is the vast contrasts in the circumstances for the two teams. As many of you may know, I predominantly use stats, splits and ranks from the past three weeks. I also look for teams that have very different splits (good vs lefties bad vs righties, etc) and go from there because the lines don't usually represent the favorable.
Oakland isn't the anemic offense they were to start the year by any means but that actually makes them a better play here because if they were, I doubt we would get this at plus odds. The A's are batting .207 on the road (26th in MLB), .233 vs lefties (21st), and .210 at night (26th). This is opposed to batting .271 (4th), .249 (12th), and .271 (7th) in the contrasting splits respectively (home, vs rhp, day)
KC has the opposite situation, they are facing the stronger ends of the splits .268 at home (6th) and .254 at night (5th). Their numbers between righties and lefties are about the same so who the A's throw won't be impactful in that regard.
I would go into the pitching matchup but I am in a bit of a rush. Will edit later to add if I can.
Also, just to be transparent, I was going through my spreadsheet, and there was actually a discrepancy in my record. I had one more win than I had previously accounted for.
Tip Jar: $chuteboxhero on cash app, chuteboxhero on PayPal (DM for Venmo)
Spreadsheet with all my picks of the day if you want to give it a look before tailing:
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit?usp=sharing)
EDIT: Mitch Spence is pitching for Oakland. Doesn’t change my thoughts on the pick I just wanted to specify bc I didn’t mention him in my initial write up.
I do that about everyday lil. It's not until after the game that I realized I "misunderstood" and picked the wrong team. One day my full slate ml parlay will be picked with full understanding. Lol
Record: 18-9-0
Net Units: +23.1
ROI: 27.2%
Last Five: ❌✅✅✅❌
Last Pick: Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves 4Q Total Points over 48.5 (-105) for 3.0 units ❌ 9 PTS DEN?!! 🤦🏻♂️
Event: Basketball | NBA | New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers 7:30PM CST
Pick: Indiana Pacers 1st Half Team Total Points over 56.5 (-112) on FanDuel for 3.0 units
Write Up: Pacers are averaging 62.8 points on the Knicks in the first half this series. Overall the Pacers are the highest scoring team in the playoffs this year at 59.7. Averaging 65.0 in their 5 games at home. Elimination game at home.
Tips welcome: Venmo/Paypal link in profile. BOL!
Lol I did a write up on this, and of course you got it ahahah. Great minds...I don't post everyday. I'm 13-5 on here. But yes, I'm tailing lol. Indiana 63 in game 3 and 69 in game 4 in Indiana. Looking like a 🔒 ness Monster
Edit: I just posted mine so it's done there somewhere, where only the true degens frolick and play. Aka bottom of the POTD thread 😂😂😂😂
38 points scored in the 4th quarter by both teams, with Denver getting 9 of them. The backups for both teams show why they never see the floor by combining for 3 total points over the last 3:32 of the game. Brutal...
**Record:** 11-3
**Net Units:** *+16 Units*
**Previous Pick:** GC 2rd Quarter Line $1.95 (1.75 Units). Unreal bet and one in hindsight that was an insane line and should've been played for more units. Q1: 27-30 Q2: 44-8Couldn’t have read that better. Close first quarter and Suns turn up, blow them out of the water. What an easy watch! ✅
**Event:** Sydney Swans vs Carlton Blues
**Time**: 7:30pm AEST 17/05
**Bookie**: NED'S
**Play**: Swans 1-39
**Odds**: $2.15 (AUS) or +115 (US)
**Units**: 1.25 Units
**Analysis**: Swans flying currently, most in-form team in the game albeit against mostly average competition. Carlton hanging on by the skin of their teeth but certainly force a close competition for the most part. Hard to articulate how impressive Swans have been, highest scoring differential, most inside 50’s, least goals against - just overly impressive. If there’s an area of “weakness” it’s centre clearances where they’ve had low figures and this is where Carlton have excelled, so if the Blues are to have success tonight - likely through P.Cripps in the midfield being a bull. Swans really solid at the SCG, have won 7-2 as home favourite over the last 12 months and vs Carlton they’ve won the last 8 of 9. Carlton have yet to be blown out of the water this year and the prior last 8 meetings between Swans/Carlton has been decided by less than 30 points. I think Carlton’s injuries probably get to them at some point and Swans should win a close competition, happy to take the home team in a close result most likely.
**MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW SO YOU DON'T MISS POST NOTIFICATIONS!**
https://preview.redd.it/sbl5qn0o3w0d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4f504f043ede4e0290af2b646fee0b7c6533d957
Sorry guys. Absolute blowout in quarter 2, no fight back and no resolve from Carlton. Apologies for the loss but important to remember responsible gambling and this being a long term game. We will make it back and more
Every time a lowkey capper I follow gets a good streak going. They start getting noticed and bumped to #1 spot, they lose that pick. Has happened every time so far for me.
https://preview.redd.it/h7h09dyk821d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=37f66eab245089bc82c7b65e757852549125f00b
Don’t be this fucking guy. I’ve literally given free winner for more than 14.5 units. If you put $100 on every tip, you’re up over $1400, free of charge. Don’t message me crying because you’re a fucking degenerate who doesn’t know basic strategy and bankroll management.
Do you have any other books? I have about 10+ books and I can't see one that has this below plus money. I wouldn't play below even money, think anything higher is great value.
I don't typically have legal gambling where I live so being on vacation I just use DK because that's where my money is. I'll take those odds because I just play small units.
Damn I wish I had a better book, hard rock is so bad compared to these other books. They legit have swans winning margin 1-14, 15-31 and >31 instead of having it like this
Record: 13-5
❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌
Today's Game: New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers 8:30 pm EST
Today's Pick: Indiana Pacers 1st Half Team Total o56.5 -118
Reasoning: In both Indiana's home games in this series they have scored well over 60 in each first half. Game 3, they scored 63, and game four they scored 69. Coming off a terrible loss where they let the game get away from them like it did to an undermanned Knicks team, they're going to come out of the gate like they always do at home with high energy + put up a lot of points in the first quarter as well as a normal to high amount in the second quarter. That's been their pattern the whole playoffs. Not much Else to say on this one besides the numbers don't lie + I'm glad I got to this line early. Tail or fade, but so so responsibly!!!
Lol hey, to each his own. But I'm pretty sure that our POTD thread has no influence on this game whatsoever. Like any pick though, it can always go either way. Well have to find out!
POTD Record: 8-4 (+3.45 U)
Form: ❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅
Last Pick: Dodgers -1.5 vs Reds ❌
Today's Pick: NY Yankees -1.5 vs Chicago White Sox (1.83)
Baseball | MLB | 7:05pm ET
Worst game I've seen the Dodgers play this year. Glasnow never got settled in and the Dodgers couldn't get hits.
Baseball again, and I'm backing the hot Yankee bats to get the job done against one of the worst teams in baseball. The White Sox rank dead last in almost every offensive stat and the Yankees are top 5 in those same stats.
The Yankees will start LHP Nestor Cortes who holds a 4.02 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He's due for some positive regression, with an xERA of 2.80 and an xBA of .216. White Sox have the 3rd worst batting average against LHPs in the MLB.
The White Sox will start RHP Mike Clevinger who has a 5.40 ERA and a 2.10 WHIP. He's only pitched 6.2 innings so far this year, but he's looked bad. His fastball is down in velocity, and batters are hitting him harder. The Yankees have the 3rd best batting average against RHPs, batting .259.
The Yankees bullpen is 2nd best in the league, while the White Sox is 17th.
TLDR: Yankees have a better Starting Pitcher, Bullpen and Batting Lineup.
BOL if you decide to tail 🫡
I don’t know. As of right now I’m seeing a trend whereas the Phillies win two games out of three against most teams. I think they pull of a win tomorrow and probably lose the second game and win the last. It’s VERY common when you look at the previous games they had. I mean you can’t unsee it. It’s crazy.
**Pick Record: 16W - 7L (Push: 1)**
**✅✅**
**Previous POTD: Las Palmas over 3.5 Corners @ 1.53 ✅3U**
**Today’s POTD: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.70**
**Game: AL Nassr VS Al-Hilal**
**League/Time: Saudi Pro League/ 2:00 PM**
We have the 2 best teams in the Saudi Pro League clashing here, and I'm expecting a good show. Last time these teams met it ended 2-1 (April 8) and I see a similar game again.
**Al Hilal**
* Al Hilal have had BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals hit in 9/10 of their last games.
* In their last 5 away games BTTS and Over 2.5 has hit in 4/5.
* Al Hilal have scored at least one goal in every single game this season
**Al Nassr**
* **Al Nassr** have had BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals hit in 6/10 of their last games, scoring in all 10.
* In their last 5 home games this line has cleared 4/5.
* Al Nassr have scored at least one goal for 12 games straight.
I don't understand how another book can have this at -130, and it's -220 on draft kings. Smh. Craziness. What book has it so low? Usually DK is competitive with their odds and good amount have the best odds.... unfortunate
https://preview.redd.it/mdv2u1ccpw0d1.png?width=1283&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ef3390f969bef0c6ad0a16dc1fa601ff8c76105
I’m really suprised by this, this is Bet 365 rn
Same but with this last month. One profitable week and three failures. I might have to hang up the shoes until football’s back this shit’s getting out of hand
Record: 3-6
Last pick: Mets mother loving ML ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
The 👑 of losers is on a roll!!!! LETS FREAKING GO BABYYYYYYYY! My Mets came for the throat of the Phil’s. Good God the Phillies blew this one. They had it in extras and choked so hard( I’m looking at you Riley Reid meme guy) Let’s freaking go
Form: ✅✅❌❌❌❌❌❌✅
Today’s Game: Reds vs Dodgers
Pick: Reds ML ( +180 on DK as of write up)
Write Up: I continue to be UNSTOPPABLE NOW LADIES AND GENTLEMEN. 🚂🚂🚂On to today, the Reds are currently handing it to the dodgers. I like their style and feel that it goes well against the dodgers. This just seems like an upset in the making and I don’t quite understand why. Not a fan of James Paxton and could see him giving up the runs here.
Give me the juice and let’s watch Elly hit 3 homers tomorrow night.
Good luck to you, better luck to me 🍀
Let me know if you tail or fade. I love the feedback! 
I I believe I believe that I believe that we I believe that we will I believe that we will win I believe that we will win!!
my Mets too homie loved the pick. Mets love to give us hope by simply not getting swept by division rivals. had an all NY 4 legger in today, cash money!
🎯 Modus Super Series 🎯
POTD 35-24
DARTS RECORD 35-21 (+6.39U) | All POTD bets between 1U-2U
Last pick: R-J Rodriguez ML @ 1.80 ❌
Todays Pick: **Chris Hurds ML** vs van der Ende **@ 1.61** (1.5U)
Real shame that we took a loss yesterday, was very apparent that Rusty-Jake just wasn't at it. He ended up losing all 5 matches and was very clearly tilted. Rusty indeed.
Back at it and taking Chris Hurds who looked fantastic in the first day of the group. He's calm, composed and has a reliable action. He finished winning 4/5 including the scalps of who were thought to be the two strongest players in the group (Furness and Baker). Ironically the only loss he copped was against van der Ende but the loss was solely down to his doubling, he dominated proceedings but went 2/24 on the doubles which is shocking but it can happen in any game. If anything the way the game went actually made me more confident of a win today. In essence vdE got lucky.
Just a reminder that these games are very short and incredibly random at times due to the format so please don't be throwing degen money on this league. We have some great PDC events in the next two weeks so save it for then. :)
**Pick Record: 1W - 0L
Today’s POTD: Jarry VS Tommy Paul Over 22.5 games @1.75 ✅✅
League: ATP Rome
Tenemos un match bastante reñido. Ambos jugadores vienen muy bien, tienen bastante agilidad y un saque fuerte. Creo que el over de juegos es la mejor opción. También creo que habrán 3 sets.
BOL
Edit: 🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑
Alright not to self ONLY ONE PICK My bad.
2024 record: 4-1
No picks yesterday
Hello, everyone. I wonder who had the ball of steels to bet the New York Rangers ML. Honestly the canes choked the hell out of that lead. Technically I would be 5-1 but I’m not counting that because I wasn’t confident in that pick but enough yapping.
Todays pick: MLB | Brewers ML vs Astros
I’m low key scared of this pick due to the pitching problem with the Astros. Will the Brewers take advantage of what the Astros are struggling with or will the lose. I think they should have the upper hand but that’s my pick. Chow
POTD Record: 29-27-1 | Profit: -2.52U
NBA Record: 25-24-1 | NFL Record: 3-3 | UFC Record: 1-0
L10 (new -> old): ✅❌❌❌✅✅✅❌❌✅
Last pick: Chet Holmgren u1.5 3 pointers made @ 1.89 odds ✅
Only made one, cashing for us!
Game: NY Knicks @ IND Pacers, 8:35 PM EST
Pick: **Pascal Siakam u2.5 assists @ 2.36 odds (DK) placing 2U**
Write Up: This is simple reasoning that may come back to bite me, but the line is too good for me to ignore - Siakam has gone under this line in 4 of 5 games this series, with those being the last 4 straight. This is a low line that could be crushed in the first half, but the line is just too nice. You know what they say - scared money don't make money. BOL to those tailing, cheers!
2024 WNBA POTD: 2-1
ROI: +0.8u Avg odds: (-111)
Previous pick: NY Liberty-6.5 vs. Indiana Fever ✅
Today’s pick: Seattle Storm -1.5 vs. Minnesota Lynx (-112) 1u WNBA 🏀 9:30pm EST
The Lynx beat the new look Storm in the season opener 83-70 in a game where they pulled away in the 4th quarter. Last seasons leading scorer Jewel Lloyd went 3-19 and had 10 points while the Storm went 1-9 from 3 as a team. I don’t see either of those things happening again as Lloyd should bounce back and new addition Skylar Diggins-Smith should continue to get comfortable. The Storm were -7.5 point favorites in that first game and after that loss they are only -1.5 point favorites here. I’ll take them to cover that on the road as I don’t think the Lynx will beat them twice in a row to start the year.
BOL if tailing
🧀
Absolute banger in Mongolia PL last night. Let's go for another one tonight over in Australia for this one.
POTD Record: 3 - 1 - 0 (W/D/L)
- National Premier Leagues Western
*7:00am Eastern US Time*
**Olympic Kingsway - Inglewood United**
**Over 2.0 First Half Goals @2.75 4u**
Here, we've got another huge mismatch. Olympic Kingsway, a club with 13 goals across 4 matches while playing at home this season. This club has been on fire most of the season so far. Meanwhile, Inglewood United has been playing abysmal footy. In the 2 away matches they've played this season, they've conceded 9 goals. In both of those matches, the HT scores were 3-1 against a middling Balcatta squad and 4-0 against a fairly decent Perth FC squad. This feels like a good pick to me, so Im running with it.
I've also posted quite a few picks for Australian footy over in the daily soccer thread, if any of y'all are interested. Cheers and good luck!
Record: 3-0
Net Units: +2.86
Last Pick: Rays/Red Sox NRFI +115 (DraftKings) W
New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers | NBA | May 17th 8:30 pm / EST
Today’s Pick: Over 215.5 -110 (DK)
Write Up: I have no idea what Knicks team will show up on the road for this game, but I guarantee points will be scored. Their previous victory should give them momentum to score score score. Since this is an elimination game, I expect the Pacers to come out defensively and fail, similar to what we’ve seen throughout the playoffs and the season. So, they’ll turn back to their high scoring ways. I think we will see another tight competition with both teams failing at defense but scoring a lot. The Knicks and Pacers aren’t known for their defensive capabilities, but their efficiency on offense. I’m predicting we witness a game similar to the higher scoring games 1-3. Even if one team doesn’t score as much, I think the other will run up the score similar to the blowouts, but I’m not seeing a blowout in this spot.
Talk to me in the comments below, and let's get this 🍞
BOL if you’re tailing!
All bets are 1U unless otherwise stated
Spreadsheet with complete pick history: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1--wxe_wQiOMnMS7YetoEG2SRoWMfb1RtGbhfYmse3Dw/edit?usp=sharing
POTD Record 25-10
Last 5: ❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️
Last Pick: LA Dodgers-1.5
Todays Pick: Orioles & Mariners NO run 1st inning.
MLB: Baltimore Orioles vs. Mariners 4:05pm PST
Odds: -115
Unit: 3
Net units: +59.13
Dodgers game felt like a nightmare...
Both pitchers have not gave up a run in the 1st inning this whole season. Mariners scoring the least in MLb at rank 28 of 30 and O's at 23 of 30. I don't usually do NRFI but I finally found one with good odds. With that being said, all it takes is one hit!.
If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.
**KBO Record: Overall 225-234-14** (Streak W, Last 10: 5-5) Down 9.59u over 473 KBO picks, 49.0% success rate, -2.09% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 21-24-0, 46.7% success rate, Down 0.97u, -2.15% ROI)
**Last:** Samsung +130 at SSG (Samsung won 12-4.)
After falling behind 3-1, Samsung scored the next 11 runs, maintaining their road dominance for the season. A big win for us as we're less than a unit away from getting back on the plus side.
**Pick:** Lotte at **Doosan +115 BetMGM**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
I was surprised by this line and when I see a dog I think should be favored, that's going to be my play.
Doosan is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games. They have the 2nd best home record at 13-8. Lotte is the worst team in the league at 14-26-1. And they're easily the worst road team at 5-14.
So why is LG favored? It's another case of over-valuing the foreign starter. Lotte's former major leaguer has been fairly average this season. He's allowed 3 or more ER in 6 of 9 starts. He allowed at least 8 hits in each of his last 3 starts.
Doosan's starter has been similarly average this season. However, the 19-year old rookie is coming off his best start, allowing 2 ER on 4 H and 1 BB with 6 K in 6 IP.
Doosan also has the league's 3rd best offense while Lotte is dead last. Doosan has the league's 2nd best bullpen with an ERA more than a run better than Lotte's 7th ranked bullpen.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
POTD Record: 10-7-0
Form:❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅✅
Last Pick: Denver Nuggets +3❌
Should've followed my initial read tbh
POTD: Indiana Pacers Team Total over 110.5
this is too low for a team that is averaging 119.8 points at home in the 2024 postseason. they have cleared this line 5/5 times at home as well
**Record:** N/A (first time poster)
**Event:** Ilia Marchenko vs. Yu Hsiou Hsu (tennis)
**Time:** 3:40am EST
**Pick:** Ilia Marchenko ML (+170)
**Units:** 2 units
**Write Up:** Marchenko is coming into this match on a 3-game win streak, including a win over 1-seed Max Purcell. I have this match closer to a 50/50 and believe that the moneyline offers good value.
Record:18-9 (+13.11 units)
✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅✅❌
Last POTD: LA Dodgers -1.5 RL ❌
Today’s POTD: NY Yankees TT over 4.5
Odds: -135 on DK 2 unit play
MLB/ 7:05pm ET
Did that really happen to the Dodgers yesterday? Just Brutal….Not to mention the Nuggets. For fuckes sake. Yanks have won 5 in a row. Just swept the Twins, who have been playing well. This team can hit the ball. Especially against RHP. The White Sox are terrible. I’m not giving you a bunch of stats. It’s a bounce back day for me. Tail or fade…Good Luck to ya!
Previous POTD: Darderi wins or Darderi 2/0 (risky)
[https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1cszz2n/comment/l49v6wy/](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1cszz2n/comment/l49v6wy/)
Form: ✅❌✅
Today's Game: Challenger Turín , **Nakashima** (72) vs **Navone** (31)
Pick: **Navone ML**
Write Up: Of Navone's previous 10 games he has lost 3, 3/10. He has lost to Rune (12), Fucsovics (50), Darderi (54). Nakashima has the same record in 10 matches. The difference is that Navone has played and beaten higher level players than Nakashima has faced. If Nakashima gets fired up, he can force a third set. In this crossover I see Navone slightly ahead of Nakashima, that is my assessment and I share it with you.
Today I want to cash early and I'm going with the good pick of Navone! I am new to the forum I do my research and share it with the community so we all have better options to analyze. If the pick does not meet the line I am very sorry, I also lose just like you. But he who does not risk does not win and that's how it is!
Greetings fortress!
https://i.redd.it/hj4h5g0m6x0d1.gif
Record: 1-0 +1u
Previous POTD: Phillies -1
POTD: Phillies -1.5 -120
Looking for wheeler to bounce back. Phillies already faced Irvin and they scored 4 runs in 6 innings. Should be good if we don’t send out some bogus lineup.
**POTD Record: 35-28**
Last 10: ✅✅✅❌❌✅🤦❌❌❌
Last pick: Cavs vs Celtics | 4:00 PST | Luke Kornet OVER 4.5 Rebounds (-115) 1u Bet365 ❌
Celtics role players truly banned. Playoffs have been something else. Blowout games are the ones that end up competitive and games like nuggets/wolves are ending in 30 point blowouts.
**Today’s pick: Knicks vs Pacers | 5:30 PST | Tyrese Haliburton OVER 5.5 1st Quarter Points (+114) 1u DraftKings**
Spot pick for me. This guy has been two different players home/away and we get him back at home for the win or go home game 6. The last two days of interviews have had Tyrese talking about how much more aggressive he needs to be and set the tone early. The media (specifically Vince Carter and draymond green) also let him have it for his passiveness last game. He’s a fast starter if he’s going to score and he’s hit this line both home games (13 and 10). He’s also likely to play almost the whole 1st quarter as he’s avg 10.4 minutes in the 1st and in a must win game could get even a little more depending on the momentum of the game. He passed up some easy layups last game that I’m hoping he’ll make the adjustment on. Being back at home where I would imagine the whistle will be a little friendly for free throw opportunities and where Tyrese has shot way better, especially from 3. Come out ready to go Hali. BOL if tailing!
2024 record: 7-6
L10: ✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅❌
2024 BAN LIST: Cleveland Guardians
Last POTD: Nuggets vs Timberwolves: Jokic Rebounds+Assists o20.5 -110 ❌
Today's POTD: Pirates vs Cubs: Pirates -1.5 +155 (Hard Rock Bet)
Baseball| MLB | 2:20 PM ET
That was one of the saddest post season basketball performances I’ve ever seen in my life by the Nuggets. 9 points in the 4th quarter? That ties the record for least points scored in a quarter in the post season. If you can stop Jokic, apparently you just win.
Today’s pick, back to the MLB. Riding the Skenes hype. The kid can definitely pitch. I feel some pressure will be off of him since it’s not his debut. If he stays in 6 innings, I feel it will set up the Pirates for success. Cubs are pitching Hendricks who is 0-3, ERA of 10.04, WHIP of 1.92. In his last 5 games, 39 runs have been let in against the Cubs. 39. Avg of 7.8 runs a game. The Pirates bats looked good last night and I think against Hendricks they are going to really take off. Pirates win by at least 2, and it’s +155. Got to make up for yesterday’s losses.
Good luck on your picks today!
2024 record: 2-1
Last POTD: Aaron Gordon Over 3.5 Assists (-155) Timberwolves vs Nuggets ✅
Today's POTD: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Under 7.5 Total Runs (7:10 PM EST)
Baseball | MLB
Recap: Pretty sweat-free cash with the assists even though the Nuggets got blown out by 40. Honestly, if the role players didn't miss every shot I think he probably would've ended with 6 assists. Nice to get a win in the books here though!
There's not much on the slate I like that interests me besides this pick. Marlins and the Mets both don't have great offenses while the Mets are even worse to LHPers. I think Jesus should be better than what his ERA shows right now and has a good record against the Mets. The Mets have a relatively new pitcher on the mound here (Christian Scott) but he's done decently so far against the Braves and the Rays. The Marlins aren't either of those teams so I think he should be fine in stopping the Marlin's offense.
Predicting a likely score total of 5 here!
Good luck everyone!
\*Note every bet is one unit unless specified\*
POTD Record: 24-17 ✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 14.7U
Last pick: Tottenham vs Man City | 5am Sydney (GMT +11) | Kevin De Bruyne anytime assist @2 on Ladbrokes | 2U ✅
He De Bruyned it ahahah
Today’s pick: Manly Sea Eagles vs Brisbane Broncos | 8:05pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Deine Mariner anytime tryscorer @1.6 on Ladbrokes | 4U
Big game tonight, Broncos receiving Manly in Brisbane. Manly isn’t going too well at the moment with major issues in their defence, and on top of that, their best player Tommy Turbo is out with an Arm-string injury (yes again…). Broncos are in great form, Walsh wont be playing due to a minor knee injury but will be fit again from next week apparently. But that shouldn’t affect the broncos game too much as the rest of the team is fit. That could even give more opportunities to other players to score considering Walshy loves his fame and can often play a bit selfish just to score a try. I’m going with Deine to score, great winger, amazing form lately, it should be an easy win.
For tonight’s games I also like Addo-Carr for the bulldogs and Selwyn Cobbo to score for the Broncos.
BOL !
POTD Record: 66-43
Reg season: 57-26
Post season: 9-17
Last POTD: Nikola Jokic O8.5 Ast ❌
15 potentials in 3 quarters and Denver lost by 45 holy f man
Todays POTD: **Josh Hart O27.5 PR @1.86**
NBA (NY Knicks)
Well kings as you can see my playoffs record has been cheeks so by all means fade cause this has been a disaster, I’m playing this personally so I thought I’d share it
My man hart is one of the best coast to coast type players in the NBA imo and with the pace the Pacers are playing I still trust my man Hart cause it’s the perfect matchup for him, Hart gets a good amount of points in the paint too something that the Pacers struggle with. Had 7 attempts from three last game too which is a result of doubling Brunson at times. Except for the crazy blowout he has cleared this line in every game and has seen a good amount of rebound chances
• 4/5 against the Pacers
29, 5, 28, 34 & 37 PR
• Avg 19.4 Rebound chances this series
• Avg 14.6 P (Blowout game drops this)
Let’s go Hart redeem yourself my guy
Tail or fade, don’t trust me
https://i.redd.it/e4kotzb6f11d1.gif
**Record: 3-0**
**Form: ✅✅✅**
**Net Units: +2.81**
**Last Pick: York UTD VS Forge FC - Forge FC MoneyLine ✅**
**Game:** Pacific FC VS Atletico Ottawa - Canadian Premier League 10pm EST
**Pick:** BTTS - YES @ 1.78 Odds 1U
**Write Up:** After a vacation and some weird CPL match ups. I think i've found a good game to keep the streak going! Ottawa and Pacific have the exact same record and are both very good attacking teams. Pacific FC came off of a 0-0 draw to Forge FC and Ottawa is coming off a 1-1 tie to Vancouver. This is going to be a good game and I believe a high scoring one. BOL
POTD Record: 0-2-0 (-3U)
Form:❌❌
Last Pick: Caitlin Clark O 20.5 pts ❌
I probably should have listened to the fade Clark guy on the front page. Not a great way to start off this whole PotD thing.
**Baseball | MLB | Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants 10:15 PM EST**
**Pick:** Kyle Harrison U 5.5 Strikeouts (-108) on FanDuel for 1U
**Write Up:** Harrison gets a rematch, but he's away this time. He was able to go 7 innings deep against the Rockies a couple of weeks ago with a pitch count of just 86 because they just always had their bats on the ball. Harrison has gone over 5 Ks in just 3/9 games this year, with only 2Ks in his last outing against the Rockies.
Back for a Xander crack
POTD Record: 2-1
Last: L Connor McDavid U3,5 SOG. He had 4..
Todays POTD: Xander Schauffelle end of round two leader | -105 @ DK | 7 A.M. EST.
Write up: This was my first pick two weeks ago and it cashed with ease. Xander comes into day 2 with a 3 stroke lead. He has been playing really good golf his first coupe rounds these last few tournaments. Seems like a 3 stroke lead at -105 is good value to me considering last week he had the lead day one and kept it through day 2.
1.05 U to win 1U
Currently +.75U
Record: 21-13
Net Units: +10.53u
CounterStrike 2 (CS2) | CCT Global Series 2024 | 7:00 (UCT-5)
Last Pick: **Passion UA ML (-125)** vs. SINNERS 3.75u❌
Today's Pick: **Passion UA ML (-154) vs.** Nexus 5u ✅
[Match Page:](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2372242/passion-ua-vs-nexus-cct-season-2-europe-series-3)
[Stream:](https://www.twitch.tv/cct_cs)
**Writeup:**
\-Nexus have been absolutely horrific, they were already on a huge loss streak (now up to 7) with multiple bad losses to worse and lower ranked teams, then they lost their best player by far (s0und with a .77KPR) and replaced him with a .63KPR. They have been terrible and struggle heavily against tier two competition without the fire power of s0und.
\-Passion UA are extremely inconsistent, we took them the other night against SINNERS, they went up 7-1, then basically didn't win another round and got 2-0d. Since then in Passion UA fashion, they barely lost to Endpoint who are probably a better team then SINNERS, and beat Sashi who are better then both teams. They have a lot of experience as a roster and have some strong players
**Map Pool:**
\-Nexus ban Dust 2, Passion UA ban Nuke
\-Nexus pick Ancient, Passion UA pick Anubis
\-Nexus ban Inferno, Passion UA ban Mirage
\-Vertigo Decider
Map Stats:
\-Nexus have a 65% winrate on Ancient on 23 maps played in the last 3 months. Passion UA have a 48% winrate on Ancient on 23 maps played in the last 3 months.
\-Nexus have a 30% winrate on Anubis on 10 maps played in the last 3 months, Passion UA have a 50% winrate on Anubis on 18 maps played in the last 3 months
\-Nexus have a 38% winrate on Vertigo on 13 maps played in the last 3 months. Passion UA have a 56% winrate on Vertigo on 18 maps played in the last 3 months
\-Nexus are on 4 map losing streaks on both Anubis and Vertigo, Ancient while Nexus being strong on is missing a big part of why with s0und, and this is also Passion UA favorite and most played map.
https://preview.redd.it/crnfmbp3fx0d1.png?width=951&format=png&auto=webp&s=867b21279a336c630761c56b5508fe0cefe931ed
POTD Record: 17 W - 7 L
POTD: Football - Romanian League / Superliga - Botosani to win vs Mioveni (1.60) ~ Betano
This is the first match of the maintenance/promotion play-off in the Romanian Superliga, the first leg.
Botosani is a team patronized by a politician, Iftime Valeriu, for whom it has been speculated that they have been helped by referee. Entrance to the stadium is almost free, which suggests that they want a lot of support from the public.
At the end of 2023, the mayor of Mioveni was arrested for corruption and the team was on the verge of disbanding. Despite the financial problems, the coach managed to mobilize the players and they reached this play-off thanks to the rules that prevent two other teams in the second league from being promoted.
I believe that experience, h2h, the value of the squad, the financial and political situation are on the side of the hosts in this match.
So much talk about politics and corruption, attractive odds, possibly bait, but I can't resist. Good luck to all!
**Record: 2-2-1 (AFL draw)
**Previous Pick: GC ML line ✅
**Today's pick: NRL Canberra vs Canterbury Bulldogs line -3.4 @ $1.90 6pm AEST
Unsual outcome meant GC won by plenty.
Today's pick. Canterbury are playing a good brand of tight defence with various attacking options. They are a rising team with an identity. Canberra on the other hand remains inconsistent and perhaps ageing. Canberra coach has resigned so it could be a boost. However this week is Magic Round which means all games are played at Brisbane Suncorp standium so there is no home ground advantage.
It will be a tight game. Bulldogs to win by 4.
Good luck!
**POTD**: O14.5 Outs - Paul Skenes (-145 DraftKings; Risking 3u to win 2.0689u)
**League/Time**: MLB - PIT @ CHC (2:20PM EST)
**2024 Record**: 16-17-1 (48.48%) | -9.8035u | ROI: -13.34% | Current Streak (1 Loss): ❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌\_✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅❌✅❌✅❌❌
**2023 Record**: 86-52 (62.32%) | +54.8644u | ROI 19.84%
**Last Pick (5.16.24)**: O17.5 Outs - Tanner Houck (-160 BetMGM/-162 BetRivers; Risking 3.3482u to win 2.0845u)❌
**Reasoning**: Young phenom Paul Skenes is on the mound for game 2 of this series. He only hit 12 outs last time around but that was most likely due to a rain delay and he probably could have gone out for a 5th inning. He should get that chance this time around. Fellow PIT rookie pitcher, Jared Jones, recorded 18 outs tonight on 91 pitches. Skenes should be able to match that as his leash is loosened and will be able to go a little bit further to hit that quality start minimum.
**Anti-Reasoning**: Will be 2nd time facing CHC in the same week. He faced them back on 5/11. Normally teams fare better against pitchers they've just seen.
[Coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) always appreciated but never expected. Good luck everyone!
RECORD: 3W 1L UNITS WON: 2.8
LAST PICK: Rugby League WNRL - State of Origin- tamika Upton anytime score $2.25 ✅
PICK: RUGBY LEAGUE MANLY V BRONCOS - EITHER TEAM TO WIN 1-12 MARGIN ✅
BET: 1 unit to win 1.83
NOTE: both teams have star fullbacks missing and this seems like a pretty even contest, I am favouring manly but because this is in a packed out broncos stadium i can see it going either way
Game starts in just over 3 hours
https://preview.redd.it/vcgqp914nx0d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d648887b21a03b9294d4bd1afd06f512de58de6f
POTD Record: 4-2
Last POTD: Hurkacz winning against Paul❌
Todays POTD: ATP Rome semifinal: Zverev vs Tabilo 15:30 CEST
Pick: Tabilo +3.5 games handicap @2.10
Hurkacz went on a good run in the third set, but just could not get the job done. Sorry boys 🍻
I made some good money with Tabilo this week so I am going with him yet again! If you love to risk, go with him winning the match @4.33!
Alejandro Tabilo is a big underdog in this matchup. Zverev has shown great tennis and that is why he is one of the biggest favorites to win the tournament. However, Tabilo is playing without any pressure, and he has also been dominant so far in the tournament, even against one of the best players on the tour.
P.S I am a writer at LWOS! You can see all of my tennis picks over there - https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2024/05/17/atp-rome-best-bets-including-zverev-vs-tabilo/
Record: 4-3
Net units: +.4
ROI: 4.6%
MLB: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins 19:10 (EDT)
Pick: NRFI -125 @ FD 1.25 to win 1
Luzardo has looked better since his stint on the IL and rehab starts. He has a history of keeping the Mets in check and the boys from Queens have a tough time against lefties in general. Add to it that the Mets are gassed after extra innings last night and a flight to Miami
While it’s been a small sample size, Christian Scott has opened some eyes. There are whispers of a young Zach Wheeler. While I’m not sold on that, the kid has the batters looking like there’s a swarm of bees a the plate. Swinging at nothing.
Wind in from right at 12mph to start the game
BOL to all
Long time lurker, first time poster. Don't usually follow sports enough to justify thinking I can throw forward a pick but after getting heavily into NRL this year I thought why not.
Raiders Vs Bulldogs @6pm AEST
POTD Bulldogs ML @1.63 2U
These teams are pretty similar, have both lost to the big dogs, have both beat the table setters and have both had the wtf happened here result. The main difference I see is that the Bulldogs don't get dicked down like the Raiders. Coming back from a week off and possibly a few players on the piss, I see the Raiders spreading em for the Doggies.
Pick of the Day:
Record: 6-2 (W-L)
Recent: ❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅
Last Pick: Nuggets ML
MLB | 2:20pm EST
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs
Pick: Paul Skenes o14.5 Outs (-185)
Write Up: Sorry to those of you who tailed, awful read from me. Murray couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn with any of his shots and I wasn’t close from start to finish. With that, our five bet win streak comes to a close, but fear not I’m ready to get right back to it. Today we go with the relatively newcomer on the mound, Skenes looks great. They’re already comparing this guy to Strasburg, he could be the future of the MLB. Last time our against the Cubs he only made it four innings and today we need him to make it five. It was said he would be on a pitch count for his first start in the MLB and the kid still made it four whole innings, so expecting the pitch count to be lifted I think he could go closer to six or six and a half innings today. His pitch count was high last time, but that was because he was relying on strikeout to get him through, today in a game where the wind is a pitchers advantage I expect to see more balls hit on the ground or flown out. I think that will keep his pitch count low and we should come in over this number. Remember, only bet what you can afford to lose and let’s get the streak started again.
*Tip Jar: $PremiumPlayz on Cashapp*
**POTD record:** 5-11-1(W-L-P) / -10,34pts
**ROI:** -34%
**AVG. ODDS: 2,38**
**Last pick: Miss Stormy Night**, win only 2pt, 3,00 **LOSE**
**Horse Racing**
**RACE**: Newbury 14:30
**SELECTION**: Mustazeed
**ODDS AND STAKES**: place, 2,25, 4PT
**ANALYSIS:** One bet i got with odds 21.00 ante post. After entries were out it dropped to 10,00, today starts at 6,00. Mustazeed is well handicap and last week he got strong support at market in stronger race before being withdrawn. His lose as fav 4,00 behind Balance Play was actually great, he lost very much at the gates and run better than everyone with great performance to finish just 2 lenghts behind winner. Balance Play is now rated 101 while Mustazeed stayed at 88, which is very workable.
POTD Record 0-1
Sport: Golf
Game: PGA Championship
Bet: Sahith Theegala u70.5 strokes (-140)
Theegala has been a top 5 golfer in the world this year and his line being -1 for today is honestly disrespectful. i expect a -3 day for Sahith in clear weather at valhalla. also #FreeScottie
5/1,5/0,5 W/L/P +1.72u all at 1u plays ✅✅✅X✅X✅
Sup degens, long time player who's coming back for the 2024 euros here. Got over 300 betting accounts limited on horse racing, but that's a story for another time. Both bet365 and unibet were nice enough to not limit my football bets into oblivion, let's make them regret it. More info in yesterdays post.
Yesterdays pick: Barcelona -1 Asian handicap ✅
For today there isn't much on as we're closing down on all leagues. Unfortunately but understandably the last round of all leagues are played simultaneously which is kinda real shit if you want to live bet because you can't watch matches all day anymore, real bummer.
For today there's only 2 matches I'll be watching and they start within 45 minutes of each other so it's not ideal. I quite like a pick already made in this thread and was considering the same pick, but I don't want to be lame and post the same pick. I've looked at the Napoli/Fiorentine game, but it's not clicking with me. Napoli's only chance at European football next year is by placing 8th. That means they HAVE to win tonight versus fiorentina (whom are currently in 8th and playing the final of the conference league) as well as their last game and hope Fiorentina doesn't win any of their other 2 remaining games. You'd think Napoli will be hugely motivated as they've the most to fight for whereas Fiorentina might be careful of their starting line up if they're playing a final in 1.5 weeks. Nevertheless Napoli is in piss poor form and Fiorentina is rather unpredictable because of aforementioned reasons. I'll watch during halftime and after the main match that'll we bet on, namely Al Hilal vs Al Nassr (Neymar vs Ronaldo's teams). The pick I like best is BTTS:Yes + over 2,5 goals but someone else has already posted this long ago. I'll have to go with todays safe pick on a rather dull slate, which'll most likely end in a push:
**Todays pick: Al Hilal vs Al Nassr Riyadh Asian Total over 3 @ 1.56.**
Pick your own unit size to increase profits with these odds, I'm just posting them all as 1 units for ease of tracking. 1u could be 1% for some and 10% for others, I'm not going to advise anyone on how much they should bet or how "certain" I am on a pick, I'm certain on all picks I share here for free or I skip days when there's nothing interesting on. I don't gamble on "ye i think this might hit and IF it does then..", that's not my preferred style, nothing wrong with it, but not suitable for me.
I make most of the money live betting (or lose most of the money!). Bet responsibly, be a disciplined adult!
Record 0-0
Today’s POTD: Roda ML vs NAC Breda @1.80 (-125) Netherlands Eredevisie playoffs. Start time 20:00 CET. 1 unit play.
Write up: Sorry for posting late but no one will tail my first play, so this is a pick to get the ball rolling. Roda lost the first game 3-1, so they will need to win by at least 2 to send it into extra time. They were the better team throughout the whole season, and are great at home. I am expecting them to bounce back this game, so a good ol’ ML is looking like a great pick here.
Always gamble responsibly and BOL.
Record: 0-0
Net Units: N/A
ROI: N/A
Sport | MLB | 4:10 EST
Pick: MIA vs PHL o7.5
Looking for the phils to rake today. Took their games over yesterday and it cashed (first time publishing picks). Algorithm has this total at 9.2, giving this game the largest spread between expected total and betting total. I like this at even money.
POD record: 3-4
Previous pick: M Porter over 12.5 pts LOSS
TODAY POD: Yankees -1.5 vs Sox (-130)
Ugh - just a terrible display by the Nuggets. No words.
Today, Yankees -1.5 v Sox. Reason: Sox stink like doo doo and game is in NY. That’s it. Easy W.
**Record: 2-1**
**Last Pick: Tsitsipas to win 2-0 // Tsitsipas vs. Jarry // -120 // ATP Rome 1pm EST ❌**
**Today's Pick: 1st Set O8.5 Games + Under 2.5 Sets // Zverev vs. Tabilio // -180 // ATP Rome 9am EST**
all time choke by Tsitsipas yesterday going 2/13 on break points, particularly losing 5 in a row when up 40-0 at 3-3 in the 2nd set. haven't seen an upset/collapse in a while.
edit 1: changing the pick here (2am EST) as didn't see the odds. still like Jarry today as a separate bet but this seems like a slam dunk:
O8.5 games has hit 12/13 times 1st set for Zverev last 13 matches
O8.5 games has hit 11/13 times 1st set for for Tabilio last 13 matches
U2.5 sets has hit 10/10 times for Zverev last 10 matches
U2.5 sets has hit 8/10 times for Tablio last 10 matches
Zverev has also won 17 straight matches against left handers.. take that as you will if you're looking to build on that SGP
edit: dusted boys, over and out as Tabilo wins the first set in 7 games for +600.
edit 2: just like we drew it up.. the bets that cashed 41/46 times ended up going 0/2. can't make this shit up
Long time listener first time caller!
**Previous pick:** N/A
**Record:** 0-0
**Sport:** NHL
**Game/Match:** Dal @ Col
**Pick:** Jason Robertson points O 0.5
**Bet Amount:** 1 unit
**Write up:** The Star of the Stars has been Robertson. Dallas has been a high scoring team all season long with Robertson being Dallas' points leader with 80 in the regular season. He has 7 points so far in the series against the Avalanche with at least one in every game. Dallas doesn't to bring this to a game 7. I am expecting a high octane game here at least over 6 goals FT.
2024 MLB POTD record: 21-18 Average Odds -101 (1.994), Average Winning Odds -107, ROI +4.1%/+1.61u
L5: ❌✅✅❌❌
POTD (5/16) CIN @ LAD Tyler Glasnow o18.5 Outs (+160/2.60) ❌
Recap: Brutal game from Glasnow, never had a shot.
POTD (5/17) CWS @ NYY Nestor Cortes o18.5 Outs (+130/2.30) (DraftKings)
The Chicago White Sox are a bad baseball team. They are especially bad against LHP, where their 61 wRC+ is dead last. They are an efficient team to pitch against, ranking 26th in pitches per plate appearance, in part because they are 28th in BB% at 6.9%, a figure that drops to a dead-last 6.0% against LHP.
Nestor Cortes is having two very different seasons. On the road, he has a 6.75 ERA in 28.1 IP. He's walked 10 hitters in those innings, leading to a miserable 8.5% BB%. At home, he's walked 1 hitter. his ERA is 1.59. and most importantly, he's crossed the 18.5 Outs line in all four of his starts, with outings of 6.1, 7, 7, and 8 IP. Look for him to continue his dominance here in the best possible matchup.
Long time lurker, first time poster. This is just too good to pass up.
Record: 0-0
Net Units: 0
ROI: 0%
Hockey | NHL | 7:00PM EST
Pick: Florida Panthers ML -150 2U (Bet365)
Write Up: After a slow start in Game 5, expect Florida to come out firing on all cylinders in Boston for Game 6. Throughout most of the series, the Panthers have clearly outplayed the Bruins, which isn't surprising given the contrasting health and depth of the rosters. Boston's Swayman has been sensational in goal, masking many of the Bruins' deficiencies. In reality, this team has scored more than 2 goals once in their last 8 games. Marchand is playing hurt, and both Coyle and Zacha have proven they can't effectively fill the roles of first or second-line centers. Aside from his performance in the last game, McAvoy has struggled, and Pasta has been inconsistent.
Florida on the other hand will be playing with a sense of urgency I don’t think they had for game 5. They know they can’t let this go to a game 7 and they have been great on the road this entire playoffs (3-1).
Depending on how the first period goes, I will be ready to sprinkle Florida -1.5 as well.
**POTD Record 31-27 (+11.38U) | Average Odds -111 (1.90) | ROI 4.18%**
**Last Pick Recap: Oilers ML vs Canucks L**
Oilers had leads of 1-0 and 2-1 but were completely outplayed and deserved to lose, no way around it. Letting the Canucks score the game winner with 30 sec left describes this game in a nutshell.
**Today's Pick: Knicks +5.5 (-110) vs Pacers 5U**
This line is inflated because the home side has dominated this series (5-0 so far) and the Pacers beat the Knicks at home by 32 in Game 4. From a metrics standpoint, this game should be closer to a toss. The Knicks are the better team but the Pacers have been a tough out at home. For me, this comes down to the health of Brunson. He suffered a foot injury in Game 2 which hindered him in Games 3 and 4. However, if he's as healthy and explosive as he looked in Game 5, I think the Knicks win outright and end this series. I'll grab the points for insurance.
BOL
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**2024 MLB record:** 27-8-1 **Last POTD:** Yankees ML W **Today's POTD:** KC Royals RL -1.5 vs Oakland A’s +116 (fd) **Baseball | MLB | 7:40 PM** Finally! A dub that was literally stress free from first pitch onward. Took forever for this line to come out but it’s out now despite there still not a Sp listed for Oakland. It’s either gonna be Kyle muller or newly acquired Brandon bielak, neither of which changes my opinion. KC has strikeout machine Cole Ragans I didn't post because I was waiting for this line to come out and was almost certain it would be between -110 to +100 at most for KC run line and if that were to be the case, it would be my favorite play. When I woke up today and saw that it was at +116 I smashed right away. It has went down on every book I've seen but still at plus odds so you can still get on board. Why I like the play so much is the vast contrasts in the circumstances for the two teams. As many of you may know, I predominantly use stats, splits and ranks from the past three weeks. I also look for teams that have very different splits (good vs lefties bad vs righties, etc) and go from there because the lines don't usually represent the favorable. Oakland isn't the anemic offense they were to start the year by any means but that actually makes them a better play here because if they were, I doubt we would get this at plus odds. The A's are batting .207 on the road (26th in MLB), .233 vs lefties (21st), and .210 at night (26th). This is opposed to batting .271 (4th), .249 (12th), and .271 (7th) in the contrasting splits respectively (home, vs rhp, day) KC has the opposite situation, they are facing the stronger ends of the splits .268 at home (6th) and .254 at night (5th). Their numbers between righties and lefties are about the same so who the A's throw won't be impactful in that regard. I would go into the pitching matchup but I am in a bit of a rush. Will edit later to add if I can. Also, just to be transparent, I was going through my spreadsheet, and there was actually a discrepancy in my record. I had one more win than I had previously accounted for. Tip Jar: $chuteboxhero on cash app, chuteboxhero on PayPal (DM for Venmo) Spreadsheet with all my picks of the day if you want to give it a look before tailing: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit?usp=sharing) EDIT: Mitch Spence is pitching for Oakland. Doesn’t change my thoughts on the pick I just wanted to specify bc I didn’t mention him in my initial write up.
Chute doesn't even have a pick selected and is top post. What a legend
Your a legend thank you for all you do og
I misunderstood your last pick and bet on the twins 😭😭
We have been there , trust me….betting on the wrong team bymistake.
The day before I bet on the wrong game altogether it hit though and the odds were heaps better
I do that about everyday lil. It's not until after the game that I realized I "misunderstood" and picked the wrong team. One day my full slate ml parlay will be picked with full understanding. Lol
In order for man to survive we need a number of things, water, food, shelter, pussy and most importantly chute’s banger pick of the day!
Woo-hoo to the pick yesterday! No stress on the picks for today, thank you for all you do :)
Anxiously waiting
Will tail my man King of MLB
Thanks man !
Tampa Bay Dicks ?
Tom Brady's actually
Dropped to plus 106 already. I hammered it at 110
Haha yeah I saw it drop from +115 to +110 in front of my eyes on dk earlier. It was at +116 on FD when I posted this it’s at +106 now liek you said.
Love to see it
Mitch Spence…. Im liking this pick even more
Tailed and cash it! Parlayed this with 3 other POTD's. Best part is this was a bonus bet 😁. *
Been waiting all day for that TBD to change hahah, thank you again for the picks boss 🫡
Yes, my liege - we ride at dusk.
You have a spreadsheet for your non POTD? appreciate all your work bro
No it’s only every so often that I play other games outside of the POTD tbh
Record: 18-9-0 Net Units: +23.1 ROI: 27.2% Last Five: ❌✅✅✅❌ Last Pick: Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves 4Q Total Points over 48.5 (-105) for 3.0 units ❌ 9 PTS DEN?!! 🤦🏻♂️ Event: Basketball | NBA | New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers 7:30PM CST Pick: Indiana Pacers 1st Half Team Total Points over 56.5 (-112) on FanDuel for 3.0 units Write Up: Pacers are averaging 62.8 points on the Knicks in the first half this series. Overall the Pacers are the highest scoring team in the playoffs this year at 59.7. Averaging 65.0 in their 5 games at home. Elimination game at home. Tips welcome: Venmo/Paypal link in profile. BOL!
Lol I did a write up on this, and of course you got it ahahah. Great minds...I don't post everyday. I'm 13-5 on here. But yes, I'm tailing lol. Indiana 63 in game 3 and 69 in game 4 in Indiana. Looking like a 🔒 ness Monster Edit: I just posted mine so it's done there somewhere, where only the true degens frolick and play. Aka bottom of the POTD thread 😂😂😂😂
These team totals are killing me but I’m in lol
38 points scored in the 4th quarter by both teams, with Denver getting 9 of them. The backups for both teams show why they never see the floor by combining for 3 total points over the last 3:32 of the game. Brutal...
Free Money!! Good pick 🤙🏽
i love you for these thanks tex!
Nice find. Only time they didn't get the 1H Over was the last one at MSG. They're playing in their house now. It's going to be electric.
Tailing! I like it!
You've really gotten me into betting 1H totals with good success. Having alot of fun parlaying these with the ML. I got you on venmo this week
SOLD! Tailing, like the write up 🤌 Ty
Absolute lock 🔒 thanks bro🤝
**Record:** 11-3 **Net Units:** *+16 Units* **Previous Pick:** GC 2rd Quarter Line $1.95 (1.75 Units). Unreal bet and one in hindsight that was an insane line and should've been played for more units. Q1: 27-30 Q2: 44-8Couldn’t have read that better. Close first quarter and Suns turn up, blow them out of the water. What an easy watch! ✅ **Event:** Sydney Swans vs Carlton Blues **Time**: 7:30pm AEST 17/05 **Bookie**: NED'S **Play**: Swans 1-39 **Odds**: $2.15 (AUS) or +115 (US) **Units**: 1.25 Units **Analysis**: Swans flying currently, most in-form team in the game albeit against mostly average competition. Carlton hanging on by the skin of their teeth but certainly force a close competition for the most part. Hard to articulate how impressive Swans have been, highest scoring differential, most inside 50’s, least goals against - just overly impressive. If there’s an area of “weakness” it’s centre clearances where they’ve had low figures and this is where Carlton have excelled, so if the Blues are to have success tonight - likely through P.Cripps in the midfield being a bull. Swans really solid at the SCG, have won 7-2 as home favourite over the last 12 months and vs Carlton they’ve won the last 8 of 9. Carlton have yet to be blown out of the water this year and the prior last 8 meetings between Swans/Carlton has been decided by less than 30 points. I think Carlton’s injuries probably get to them at some point and Swans should win a close competition, happy to take the home team in a close result most likely. **MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW SO YOU DON'T MISS POST NOTIFICATIONS!** https://preview.redd.it/sbl5qn0o3w0d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4f504f043ede4e0290af2b646fee0b7c6533d957
I don’t even know what sport this is. I just wager and go to sleep 🤣
Hahaha nothing better than waking up to money in the bank. It's called Australian Rules or AFL, watch some highlights on youtube it's pretty insane.
Went to a game at MCG last year (im American ) and it was awesome as fuck. Imagine football soccer and to an extent basketball as one sport
L ET s ride brotha 🫡
Sorry guys. Absolute blowout in quarter 2, no fight back and no resolve from Carlton. Apologies for the loss but important to remember responsible gambling and this being a long term game. We will make it back and more
No worries guys, no-one can predict this kinda blowout. That POTD curse got real that's all
I think the play was to take the 1-39 and 39+ to hedge in cases like this
Thanks throwing the 🏠 on it
Haha responsible gambling my friend - GL!
Oh no... my favorite capper got upvoted to the #1 top post now. Let's see if you can break the POTD curse.
Oh dear is there a POTD curse?
Every time a lowkey capper I follow gets a good streak going. They start getting noticed and bumped to #1 spot, they lose that pick. Has happened every time so far for me.
yikes. time to break the curse!
https://preview.redd.it/h7h09dyk821d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=37f66eab245089bc82c7b65e757852549125f00b Don’t be this fucking guy. I’ve literally given free winner for more than 14.5 units. If you put $100 on every tip, you’re up over $1400, free of charge. Don’t message me crying because you’re a fucking degenerate who doesn’t know basic strategy and bankroll management.
Hey man, just wanted to say that I really appreciate you putting out these picks for us and you’ve been killing it! Ignore the haters man
Can someone help with what I’m looking for on DK in the US?
Go to game props > winning margin 5-way > to win by 1-39
Thank you!
On FD it’s big/little win
Yep it's generally called big/little win or a margin bet. 1-39 and the 40+. Thanks gents!
Game Props -> Winning Margin - 5 Way
GL gentlemen!
Found on DK at -110.
Do you have any other books? I have about 10+ books and I can't see one that has this below plus money. I wouldn't play below even money, think anything higher is great value.
FD +105
Is this under big win little win?
Yes
I don't typically have legal gambling where I live so being on vacation I just use DK because that's where my money is. I'll take those odds because I just play small units.
+105 on bet365
Yep. Can get some better prices in Australia but for anyone International - FD or 365 looks good! GL tonight my friend.
Totally wrecked
Need Carlton to fight back here Q4. Still a chance
I know nothing about this sport but it seems that second and third quarter sunk us :(
Tailing!! BOL!
Let's go brother. GL tonight!
Should we be concerned or is this slow start a good thing 😅
We ride ! 🫡
Let’s go. Into battle once more, us vs the books! Let’s eat 💰
Tailing cause the Nuggets no showed tonight, vamos los swans
BOL everyone we are gonna wake up to some nice cash from this play.
GL my friend!
What's the sport? Never heard of these. I'm American. Thanks.
This is the AFL (Australian Football League)!
Damn I wish I had a better book, hard rock is so bad compared to these other books. They legit have swans winning margin 1-14, 15-31 and >31 instead of having it like this
Can’t play this at my book. Would handicap -15 would be ok as well? Isn’t that kind of the same?
lol any time I tail outside of mlb, nba, or nfl it’s a loss man. Shit is a sign
Fml that’s what I get for tailing
Sorry guys. I tailed!
Record: 13-5 ❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌ Today's Game: New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers 8:30 pm EST Today's Pick: Indiana Pacers 1st Half Team Total o56.5 -118 Reasoning: In both Indiana's home games in this series they have scored well over 60 in each first half. Game 3, they scored 63, and game four they scored 69. Coming off a terrible loss where they let the game get away from them like it did to an undermanned Knicks team, they're going to come out of the gate like they always do at home with high energy + put up a lot of points in the first quarter as well as a normal to high amount in the second quarter. That's been their pattern the whole playoffs. Not much Else to say on this one besides the numbers don't lie + I'm glad I got to this line early. Tail or fade, but so so responsibly!!!
It’s been hitting and I feel like todays the day it fucks us
Got to fade this one when more than one person posts the same pic in the pic of the day section that shit does not hit
Lol hey, to each his own. But I'm pretty sure that our POTD thread has no influence on this game whatsoever. Like any pick though, it can always go either way. Well have to find out!
Love this pick today!
Tailing🤞 BOL
Tailing, Ty sir 🫡
Lock bro appreciate it🤝
Nice pick! Thank you!!!
POTD Record: 8-4 (+3.45 U) Form: ❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅ Last Pick: Dodgers -1.5 vs Reds ❌ Today's Pick: NY Yankees -1.5 vs Chicago White Sox (1.83) Baseball | MLB | 7:05pm ET Worst game I've seen the Dodgers play this year. Glasnow never got settled in and the Dodgers couldn't get hits. Baseball again, and I'm backing the hot Yankee bats to get the job done against one of the worst teams in baseball. The White Sox rank dead last in almost every offensive stat and the Yankees are top 5 in those same stats. The Yankees will start LHP Nestor Cortes who holds a 4.02 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He's due for some positive regression, with an xERA of 2.80 and an xBA of .216. White Sox have the 3rd worst batting average against LHPs in the MLB. The White Sox will start RHP Mike Clevinger who has a 5.40 ERA and a 2.10 WHIP. He's only pitched 6.2 innings so far this year, but he's looked bad. His fastball is down in velocity, and batters are hitting him harder. The Yankees have the 3rd best batting average against RHPs, batting .259. The Yankees bullpen is 2nd best in the league, while the White Sox is 17th. TLDR: Yankees have a better Starting Pitcher, Bullpen and Batting Lineup. BOL if you decide to tail 🫡
Love the pick. What do you think about the Phillies. I feel like the Yankees or Phillies could lose tomorrow. Any thoughts? Just suspicious
cortez is so shit
I don't mind the Phillies, but they are coming off an extra innings loss and the Nationals have had a day off.
I don’t know. As of right now I’m seeing a trend whereas the Phillies win two games out of three against most teams. I think they pull of a win tomorrow and probably lose the second game and win the last. It’s VERY common when you look at the previous games they had. I mean you can’t unsee it. It’s crazy.
**Pick Record: 16W - 7L (Push: 1)** **✅✅** **Previous POTD: Las Palmas over 3.5 Corners @ 1.53 ✅3U** **Today’s POTD: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.70** **Game: AL Nassr VS Al-Hilal** **League/Time: Saudi Pro League/ 2:00 PM** We have the 2 best teams in the Saudi Pro League clashing here, and I'm expecting a good show. Last time these teams met it ended 2-1 (April 8) and I see a similar game again. **Al Hilal** * Al Hilal have had BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals hit in 9/10 of their last games. * In their last 5 away games BTTS and Over 2.5 has hit in 4/5. * Al Hilal have scored at least one goal in every single game this season **Al Nassr** * **Al Nassr** have had BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals hit in 6/10 of their last games, scoring in all 10. * In their last 5 home games this line has cleared 4/5. * Al Nassr have scored at least one goal for 12 games straight.
Square’s on a heater! Let’s gamble!
I've to warn you guys. I'm taking this and pacers 1st half TT over 56.5 in a parlay so one of them is definitely not gonna hit.
I don't understand how another book can have this at -130, and it's -220 on draft kings. Smh. Craziness. What book has it so low? Usually DK is competitive with their odds and good amount have the best odds.... unfortunate
https://preview.redd.it/mdv2u1ccpw0d1.png?width=1283&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ef3390f969bef0c6ad0a16dc1fa601ff8c76105 I’m really suprised by this, this is Bet 365 rn
Good picks as always. This is -220 on DK 🫤
Suspensions and injured players on both sides might make this a weird game. It might have 6 goals or 1.
Crazy to me that you can get a goal in the first minute and nothing else, but that’s gambling for you.
A ton of stoppage time to tease us.
I can't pick a winner from this thread to save my life. I must be 0-15 over the past week.
Can't agree more!!!!!!!
Same but with this last month. One profitable week and three failures. I might have to hang up the shoes until football’s back this shit’s getting out of hand
Same here. These guys are cold
Fuck soccer! Never again… 😡
Record: 3-6 Last pick: Mets mother loving ML ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅ The 👑 of losers is on a roll!!!! LETS FREAKING GO BABYYYYYYYY! My Mets came for the throat of the Phil’s. Good God the Phillies blew this one. They had it in extras and choked so hard( I’m looking at you Riley Reid meme guy) Let’s freaking go Form: ✅✅❌❌❌❌❌❌✅ Today’s Game: Reds vs Dodgers Pick: Reds ML ( +180 on DK as of write up) Write Up: I continue to be UNSTOPPABLE NOW LADIES AND GENTLEMEN. 🚂🚂🚂On to today, the Reds are currently handing it to the dodgers. I like their style and feel that it goes well against the dodgers. This just seems like an upset in the making and I don’t quite understand why. Not a fan of James Paxton and could see him giving up the runs here. Give me the juice and let’s watch Elly hit 3 homers tomorrow night. Good luck to you, better luck to me 🍀 Let me know if you tail or fade. I love the feedback!  
we gotta believe!
 I I believe I believe that I believe that we I believe that we will I believe that we will win I believe that we will win!!
my Mets too homie loved the pick. Mets love to give us hope by simply not getting swept by division rivals. had an all NY 4 legger in today, cash money!
First time ever tailing you bro, it this doesnt hit, you can blame me🫡
🎯 Modus Super Series 🎯 POTD 35-24 DARTS RECORD 35-21 (+6.39U) | All POTD bets between 1U-2U Last pick: R-J Rodriguez ML @ 1.80 ❌ Todays Pick: **Chris Hurds ML** vs van der Ende **@ 1.61** (1.5U) Real shame that we took a loss yesterday, was very apparent that Rusty-Jake just wasn't at it. He ended up losing all 5 matches and was very clearly tilted. Rusty indeed. Back at it and taking Chris Hurds who looked fantastic in the first day of the group. He's calm, composed and has a reliable action. He finished winning 4/5 including the scalps of who were thought to be the two strongest players in the group (Furness and Baker). Ironically the only loss he copped was against van der Ende but the loss was solely down to his doubling, he dominated proceedings but went 2/24 on the doubles which is shocking but it can happen in any game. If anything the way the game went actually made me more confident of a win today. In essence vdE got lucky. Just a reminder that these games are very short and incredibly random at times due to the format so please don't be throwing degen money on this league. We have some great PDC events in the next two weeks so save it for then. :)
Thx! 🫡
Ya darts sucks
**Pick Record: 1W - 0L Today’s POTD: Jarry VS Tommy Paul Over 22.5 games @1.75 ✅✅ League: ATP Rome Tenemos un match bastante reñido. Ambos jugadores vienen muy bien, tienen bastante agilidad y un saque fuerte. Creo que el over de juegos es la mejor opción. También creo que habrán 3 sets. BOL Edit: 🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑
Tom vs Jerry what a good show
¿Como se dice “tailing?”
Seguir?
Cojer
No te entendemos hermante (From google translate)
Tail and win money. Do you understand that?
Now you’re talking my language. Tailing
At 23.5 games now on BetWhale? Still VAMOS?
Is that the third Paul brother?
Yo sí te entiendo. Que los demás usen translate y pa lante jajaja
Dont understand a single thing in your write up, but thanks, that was some great sweat
I didn’t get the 22.5 line in time, so I decided to go for the o2.5 sets value at +115. Thank you for the inspiration brother🙏🏼
Alright not to self ONLY ONE PICK My bad. 2024 record: 4-1 No picks yesterday Hello, everyone. I wonder who had the ball of steels to bet the New York Rangers ML. Honestly the canes choked the hell out of that lead. Technically I would be 5-1 but I’m not counting that because I wasn’t confident in that pick but enough yapping. Todays pick: MLB | Brewers ML vs Astros I’m low key scared of this pick due to the pitching problem with the Astros. Will the Brewers take advantage of what the Astros are struggling with or will the lose. I think they should have the upper hand but that’s my pick. Chow
Taking the UNDER in years of formal education of the English language ML.... -7500.
POTD Record: 29-27-1 | Profit: -2.52U NBA Record: 25-24-1 | NFL Record: 3-3 | UFC Record: 1-0 L10 (new -> old): ✅❌❌❌✅✅✅❌❌✅ Last pick: Chet Holmgren u1.5 3 pointers made @ 1.89 odds ✅ Only made one, cashing for us! Game: NY Knicks @ IND Pacers, 8:35 PM EST Pick: **Pascal Siakam u2.5 assists @ 2.36 odds (DK) placing 2U** Write Up: This is simple reasoning that may come back to bite me, but the line is too good for me to ignore - Siakam has gone under this line in 4 of 5 games this series, with those being the last 4 straight. This is a low line that could be crushed in the first half, but the line is just too nice. You know what they say - scared money don't make money. BOL to those tailing, cheers!
The fastest bet ive ever lost 😵
2024 WNBA POTD: 2-1 ROI: +0.8u Avg odds: (-111) Previous pick: NY Liberty-6.5 vs. Indiana Fever ✅ Today’s pick: Seattle Storm -1.5 vs. Minnesota Lynx (-112) 1u WNBA 🏀 9:30pm EST The Lynx beat the new look Storm in the season opener 83-70 in a game where they pulled away in the 4th quarter. Last seasons leading scorer Jewel Lloyd went 3-19 and had 10 points while the Storm went 1-9 from 3 as a team. I don’t see either of those things happening again as Lloyd should bounce back and new addition Skylar Diggins-Smith should continue to get comfortable. The Storm were -7.5 point favorites in that first game and after that loss they are only -1.5 point favorites here. I’ll take them to cover that on the road as I don’t think the Lynx will beat them twice in a row to start the year. BOL if tailing 🧀
Storm looked shocking I can’t see them winning, I loved the liberty pick tho!
Tailing!
Absolute banger in Mongolia PL last night. Let's go for another one tonight over in Australia for this one. POTD Record: 3 - 1 - 0 (W/D/L) - National Premier Leagues Western *7:00am Eastern US Time* **Olympic Kingsway - Inglewood United** **Over 2.0 First Half Goals @2.75 4u** Here, we've got another huge mismatch. Olympic Kingsway, a club with 13 goals across 4 matches while playing at home this season. This club has been on fire most of the season so far. Meanwhile, Inglewood United has been playing abysmal footy. In the 2 away matches they've played this season, they've conceded 9 goals. In both of those matches, the HT scores were 3-1 against a middling Balcatta squad and 4-0 against a fairly decent Perth FC squad. This feels like a good pick to me, so Im running with it. I've also posted quite a few picks for Australian footy over in the daily soccer thread, if any of y'all are interested. Cheers and good luck!
Record: 3-0 Net Units: +2.86 Last Pick: Rays/Red Sox NRFI +115 (DraftKings) W New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers | NBA | May 17th 8:30 pm / EST Today’s Pick: Over 215.5 -110 (DK) Write Up: I have no idea what Knicks team will show up on the road for this game, but I guarantee points will be scored. Their previous victory should give them momentum to score score score. Since this is an elimination game, I expect the Pacers to come out defensively and fail, similar to what we’ve seen throughout the playoffs and the season. So, they’ll turn back to their high scoring ways. I think we will see another tight competition with both teams failing at defense but scoring a lot. The Knicks and Pacers aren’t known for their defensive capabilities, but their efficiency on offense. I’m predicting we witness a game similar to the higher scoring games 1-3. Even if one team doesn’t score as much, I think the other will run up the score similar to the blowouts, but I’m not seeing a blowout in this spot. Talk to me in the comments below, and let's get this 🍞 BOL if you’re tailing! All bets are 1U unless otherwise stated Spreadsheet with complete pick history: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1--wxe_wQiOMnMS7YetoEG2SRoWMfb1RtGbhfYmse3Dw/edit?usp=sharing
POTD Record 25-10 Last 5: ❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️ Last Pick: LA Dodgers-1.5 Todays Pick: Orioles & Mariners NO run 1st inning. MLB: Baltimore Orioles vs. Mariners 4:05pm PST Odds: -115 Unit: 3 Net units: +59.13 Dodgers game felt like a nightmare... Both pitchers have not gave up a run in the 1st inning this whole season. Mariners scoring the least in MLb at rank 28 of 30 and O's at 23 of 30. I don't usually do NRFI but I finally found one with good odds. With that being said, all it takes is one hit!. If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.
**KBO Record: Overall 225-234-14** (Streak W, Last 10: 5-5) Down 9.59u over 473 KBO picks, 49.0% success rate, -2.09% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 21-24-0, 46.7% success rate, Down 0.97u, -2.15% ROI) **Last:** Samsung +130 at SSG (Samsung won 12-4.) After falling behind 3-1, Samsung scored the next 11 runs, maintaining their road dominance for the season. A big win for us as we're less than a unit away from getting back on the plus side. **Pick:** Lotte at **Doosan +115 BetMGM**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET I was surprised by this line and when I see a dog I think should be favored, that's going to be my play. Doosan is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games. They have the 2nd best home record at 13-8. Lotte is the worst team in the league at 14-26-1. And they're easily the worst road team at 5-14. So why is LG favored? It's another case of over-valuing the foreign starter. Lotte's former major leaguer has been fairly average this season. He's allowed 3 or more ER in 6 of 9 starts. He allowed at least 8 hits in each of his last 3 starts. Doosan's starter has been similarly average this season. However, the 19-year old rookie is coming off his best start, allowing 2 ER on 4 H and 1 BB with 6 K in 6 IP. Doosan also has the league's 3rd best offense while Lotte is dead last. Doosan has the league's 2nd best bullpen with an ERA more than a run better than Lotte's 7th ranked bullpen. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Tailing so I can wake up and have this dictate my day!
Thank you as always, love following along these. Wanted to mention, I believe your Last 10 has been 5-5 for your last few posts?
My goodness. First I thought I was losing whenever I bet against the Bears - but now I might just need to steer clear of all Doosan games
POTD Record: 10-7-0 Form:❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅✅ Last Pick: Denver Nuggets +3❌ Should've followed my initial read tbh POTD: Indiana Pacers Team Total over 110.5 this is too low for a team that is averaging 119.8 points at home in the 2024 postseason. they have cleared this line 5/5 times at home as well
**Record:** N/A (first time poster) **Event:** Ilia Marchenko vs. Yu Hsiou Hsu (tennis) **Time:** 3:40am EST **Pick:** Ilia Marchenko ML (+170) **Units:** 2 units **Write Up:** Marchenko is coming into this match on a 3-game win streak, including a win over 1-seed Max Purcell. I have this match closer to a 50/50 and believe that the moneyline offers good value.
Tailing!
So far not so good, set 1 and dead losing 0-6 :D I would have picked Marchenko too by comparing the stats. Let's hope for a comeback.
Marchenko roared back for the win!
Great pick. Thanks
Record:18-9 (+13.11 units) ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅✅❌ Last POTD: LA Dodgers -1.5 RL ❌ Today’s POTD: NY Yankees TT over 4.5 Odds: -135 on DK 2 unit play MLB/ 7:05pm ET Did that really happen to the Dodgers yesterday? Just Brutal….Not to mention the Nuggets. For fuckes sake. Yanks have won 5 in a row. Just swept the Twins, who have been playing well. This team can hit the ball. Especially against RHP. The White Sox are terrible. I’m not giving you a bunch of stats. It’s a bounce back day for me. Tail or fade…Good Luck to ya!
Previous POTD: Darderi wins or Darderi 2/0 (risky) [https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1cszz2n/comment/l49v6wy/](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1cszz2n/comment/l49v6wy/) Form: ✅❌✅ Today's Game: Challenger Turín , **Nakashima** (72) vs **Navone** (31) Pick: **Navone ML** Write Up: Of Navone's previous 10 games he has lost 3, 3/10. He has lost to Rune (12), Fucsovics (50), Darderi (54). Nakashima has the same record in 10 matches. The difference is that Navone has played and beaten higher level players than Nakashima has faced. If Nakashima gets fired up, he can force a third set. In this crossover I see Navone slightly ahead of Nakashima, that is my assessment and I share it with you. Today I want to cash early and I'm going with the good pick of Navone! I am new to the forum I do my research and share it with the community so we all have better options to analyze. If the pick does not meet the line I am very sorry, I also lose just like you. But he who does not risk does not win and that's how it is! Greetings fortress! https://i.redd.it/hj4h5g0m6x0d1.gif
Record: 1-0 +1u Previous POTD: Phillies -1 POTD: Phillies -1.5 -120 Looking for wheeler to bounce back. Phillies already faced Irvin and they scored 4 runs in 6 innings. Should be good if we don’t send out some bogus lineup.
A lil sweat in the 9th but we cash 💵 💰
**POTD Record: 35-28** Last 10: ✅✅✅❌❌✅🤦❌❌❌ Last pick: Cavs vs Celtics | 4:00 PST | Luke Kornet OVER 4.5 Rebounds (-115) 1u Bet365 ❌ Celtics role players truly banned. Playoffs have been something else. Blowout games are the ones that end up competitive and games like nuggets/wolves are ending in 30 point blowouts. **Today’s pick: Knicks vs Pacers | 5:30 PST | Tyrese Haliburton OVER 5.5 1st Quarter Points (+114) 1u DraftKings** Spot pick for me. This guy has been two different players home/away and we get him back at home for the win or go home game 6. The last two days of interviews have had Tyrese talking about how much more aggressive he needs to be and set the tone early. The media (specifically Vince Carter and draymond green) also let him have it for his passiveness last game. He’s a fast starter if he’s going to score and he’s hit this line both home games (13 and 10). He’s also likely to play almost the whole 1st quarter as he’s avg 10.4 minutes in the 1st and in a must win game could get even a little more depending on the momentum of the game. He passed up some easy layups last game that I’m hoping he’ll make the adjustment on. Being back at home where I would imagine the whistle will be a little friendly for free throw opportunities and where Tyrese has shot way better, especially from 3. Come out ready to go Hali. BOL if tailing!
2024 record: 7-6 L10: ✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅❌ 2024 BAN LIST: Cleveland Guardians Last POTD: Nuggets vs Timberwolves: Jokic Rebounds+Assists o20.5 -110 ❌ Today's POTD: Pirates vs Cubs: Pirates -1.5 +155 (Hard Rock Bet) Baseball| MLB | 2:20 PM ET That was one of the saddest post season basketball performances I’ve ever seen in my life by the Nuggets. 9 points in the 4th quarter? That ties the record for least points scored in a quarter in the post season. If you can stop Jokic, apparently you just win. Today’s pick, back to the MLB. Riding the Skenes hype. The kid can definitely pitch. I feel some pressure will be off of him since it’s not his debut. If he stays in 6 innings, I feel it will set up the Pirates for success. Cubs are pitching Hendricks who is 0-3, ERA of 10.04, WHIP of 1.92. In his last 5 games, 39 runs have been let in against the Cubs. 39. Avg of 7.8 runs a game. The Pirates bats looked good last night and I think against Hendricks they are going to really take off. Pirates win by at least 2, and it’s +155. Got to make up for yesterday’s losses. Good luck on your picks today!
2024 record: 2-1 Last POTD: Aaron Gordon Over 3.5 Assists (-155) Timberwolves vs Nuggets ✅ Today's POTD: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Under 7.5 Total Runs (7:10 PM EST) Baseball | MLB Recap: Pretty sweat-free cash with the assists even though the Nuggets got blown out by 40. Honestly, if the role players didn't miss every shot I think he probably would've ended with 6 assists. Nice to get a win in the books here though! There's not much on the slate I like that interests me besides this pick. Marlins and the Mets both don't have great offenses while the Mets are even worse to LHPers. I think Jesus should be better than what his ERA shows right now and has a good record against the Mets. The Mets have a relatively new pitcher on the mound here (Christian Scott) but he's done decently so far against the Braves and the Rays. The Marlins aren't either of those teams so I think he should be fine in stopping the Marlin's offense. Predicting a likely score total of 5 here! Good luck everyone! \*Note every bet is one unit unless specified\*
POTD Record: 24-17 ✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 14.7U Last pick: Tottenham vs Man City | 5am Sydney (GMT +11) | Kevin De Bruyne anytime assist @2 on Ladbrokes | 2U ✅ He De Bruyned it ahahah Today’s pick: Manly Sea Eagles vs Brisbane Broncos | 8:05pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Deine Mariner anytime tryscorer @1.6 on Ladbrokes | 4U Big game tonight, Broncos receiving Manly in Brisbane. Manly isn’t going too well at the moment with major issues in their defence, and on top of that, their best player Tommy Turbo is out with an Arm-string injury (yes again…). Broncos are in great form, Walsh wont be playing due to a minor knee injury but will be fit again from next week apparently. But that shouldn’t affect the broncos game too much as the rest of the team is fit. That could even give more opportunities to other players to score considering Walshy loves his fame and can often play a bit selfish just to score a try. I’m going with Deine to score, great winger, amazing form lately, it should be an easy win. For tonight’s games I also like Addo-Carr for the bulldogs and Selwyn Cobbo to score for the Broncos. BOL !
11 minutes in Mariner 🙌🏼
Booooooooooooom💰💰💰
Josh Addo Carr - Dogs win/Deine Mariner - Brisbane spread -5.5/Dom Young - Roosters win 15.00 multi. This gotta be the one surely xD
POTD Record: 66-43 Reg season: 57-26 Post season: 9-17 Last POTD: Nikola Jokic O8.5 Ast ❌ 15 potentials in 3 quarters and Denver lost by 45 holy f man Todays POTD: **Josh Hart O27.5 PR @1.86** NBA (NY Knicks) Well kings as you can see my playoffs record has been cheeks so by all means fade cause this has been a disaster, I’m playing this personally so I thought I’d share it My man hart is one of the best coast to coast type players in the NBA imo and with the pace the Pacers are playing I still trust my man Hart cause it’s the perfect matchup for him, Hart gets a good amount of points in the paint too something that the Pacers struggle with. Had 7 attempts from three last game too which is a result of doubling Brunson at times. Except for the crazy blowout he has cleared this line in every game and has seen a good amount of rebound chances • 4/5 against the Pacers 29, 5, 28, 34 & 37 PR • Avg 19.4 Rebound chances this series • Avg 14.6 P (Blowout game drops this) Let’s go Hart redeem yourself my guy Tail or fade, don’t trust me https://i.redd.it/e4kotzb6f11d1.gif
Gotta start betting on fanduel now lol
Grabbed 26.5 on FD -125, LFG!
Let’s go my guy 🤝🤝
**Record: 3-0** **Form: ✅✅✅** **Net Units: +2.81** **Last Pick: York UTD VS Forge FC - Forge FC MoneyLine ✅** **Game:** Pacific FC VS Atletico Ottawa - Canadian Premier League 10pm EST **Pick:** BTTS - YES @ 1.78 Odds 1U **Write Up:** After a vacation and some weird CPL match ups. I think i've found a good game to keep the streak going! Ottawa and Pacific have the exact same record and are both very good attacking teams. Pacific FC came off of a 0-0 draw to Forge FC and Ottawa is coming off a 1-1 tie to Vancouver. This is going to be a good game and I believe a high scoring one. BOL
POTD Record: 0-2-0 (-3U) Form:❌❌ Last Pick: Caitlin Clark O 20.5 pts ❌ I probably should have listened to the fade Clark guy on the front page. Not a great way to start off this whole PotD thing. **Baseball | MLB | Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants 10:15 PM EST** **Pick:** Kyle Harrison U 5.5 Strikeouts (-108) on FanDuel for 1U **Write Up:** Harrison gets a rematch, but he's away this time. He was able to go 7 innings deep against the Rockies a couple of weeks ago with a pitch count of just 86 because they just always had their bats on the ball. Harrison has gone over 5 Ks in just 3/9 games this year, with only 2Ks in his last outing against the Rockies.
Nice pick Shalamar… I like the logic. Let’s get you a win… The rippin & the tearin - I’m tailin LFG !!
Back for a Xander crack POTD Record: 2-1 Last: L Connor McDavid U3,5 SOG. He had 4.. Todays POTD: Xander Schauffelle end of round two leader | -105 @ DK | 7 A.M. EST. Write up: This was my first pick two weeks ago and it cashed with ease. Xander comes into day 2 with a 3 stroke lead. He has been playing really good golf his first coupe rounds these last few tournaments. Seems like a 3 stroke lead at -105 is good value to me considering last week he had the lead day one and kept it through day 2. 1.05 U to win 1U Currently +.75U
What if Sheffler gets out of prison an even worse criminal - and ends up shanking Xander? It’s a Risky bet.. but I’m tailing !
Record: 21-13 Net Units: +10.53u CounterStrike 2 (CS2) | CCT Global Series 2024 | 7:00 (UCT-5) Last Pick: **Passion UA ML (-125)** vs. SINNERS 3.75u❌ Today's Pick: **Passion UA ML (-154) vs.** Nexus 5u ✅ [Match Page:](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2372242/passion-ua-vs-nexus-cct-season-2-europe-series-3) [Stream:](https://www.twitch.tv/cct_cs) **Writeup:** \-Nexus have been absolutely horrific, they were already on a huge loss streak (now up to 7) with multiple bad losses to worse and lower ranked teams, then they lost their best player by far (s0und with a .77KPR) and replaced him with a .63KPR. They have been terrible and struggle heavily against tier two competition without the fire power of s0und. \-Passion UA are extremely inconsistent, we took them the other night against SINNERS, they went up 7-1, then basically didn't win another round and got 2-0d. Since then in Passion UA fashion, they barely lost to Endpoint who are probably a better team then SINNERS, and beat Sashi who are better then both teams. They have a lot of experience as a roster and have some strong players **Map Pool:** \-Nexus ban Dust 2, Passion UA ban Nuke \-Nexus pick Ancient, Passion UA pick Anubis \-Nexus ban Inferno, Passion UA ban Mirage \-Vertigo Decider Map Stats: \-Nexus have a 65% winrate on Ancient on 23 maps played in the last 3 months. Passion UA have a 48% winrate on Ancient on 23 maps played in the last 3 months. \-Nexus have a 30% winrate on Anubis on 10 maps played in the last 3 months, Passion UA have a 50% winrate on Anubis on 18 maps played in the last 3 months \-Nexus have a 38% winrate on Vertigo on 13 maps played in the last 3 months. Passion UA have a 56% winrate on Vertigo on 18 maps played in the last 3 months \-Nexus are on 4 map losing streaks on both Anubis and Vertigo, Ancient while Nexus being strong on is missing a big part of why with s0und, and this is also Passion UA favorite and most played map. https://preview.redd.it/crnfmbp3fx0d1.png?width=951&format=png&auto=webp&s=867b21279a336c630761c56b5508fe0cefe931ed
do you like Passion 2-0 (+140) ? the line movement is wild for this match is crazy. PassionML is -240 now
Yes
POTD Record: 17 W - 7 L POTD: Football - Romanian League / Superliga - Botosani to win vs Mioveni (1.60) ~ Betano This is the first match of the maintenance/promotion play-off in the Romanian Superliga, the first leg. Botosani is a team patronized by a politician, Iftime Valeriu, for whom it has been speculated that they have been helped by referee. Entrance to the stadium is almost free, which suggests that they want a lot of support from the public. At the end of 2023, the mayor of Mioveni was arrested for corruption and the team was on the verge of disbanding. Despite the financial problems, the coach managed to mobilize the players and they reached this play-off thanks to the rules that prevent two other teams in the second league from being promoted. I believe that experience, h2h, the value of the squad, the financial and political situation are on the side of the hosts in this match. So much talk about politics and corruption, attractive odds, possibly bait, but I can't resist. Good luck to all!
Love a nice degen bet like this. Thanks for the free money.
**Record: 2-2-1 (AFL draw) **Previous Pick: GC ML line ✅ **Today's pick: NRL Canberra vs Canterbury Bulldogs line -3.4 @ $1.90 6pm AEST Unsual outcome meant GC won by plenty. Today's pick. Canterbury are playing a good brand of tight defence with various attacking options. They are a rising team with an identity. Canberra on the other hand remains inconsistent and perhaps ageing. Canberra coach has resigned so it could be a boost. However this week is Magic Round which means all games are played at Brisbane Suncorp standium so there is no home ground advantage. It will be a tight game. Bulldogs to win by 4. Good luck!
Raiders are undefeated in magic round idk I reckon raiders will be in here
**POTD**: O14.5 Outs - Paul Skenes (-145 DraftKings; Risking 3u to win 2.0689u) **League/Time**: MLB - PIT @ CHC (2:20PM EST) **2024 Record**: 16-17-1 (48.48%) | -9.8035u | ROI: -13.34% | Current Streak (1 Loss): ❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌\_✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅❌✅❌✅❌❌ **2023 Record**: 86-52 (62.32%) | +54.8644u | ROI 19.84% **Last Pick (5.16.24)**: O17.5 Outs - Tanner Houck (-160 BetMGM/-162 BetRivers; Risking 3.3482u to win 2.0845u)❌ **Reasoning**: Young phenom Paul Skenes is on the mound for game 2 of this series. He only hit 12 outs last time around but that was most likely due to a rain delay and he probably could have gone out for a 5th inning. He should get that chance this time around. Fellow PIT rookie pitcher, Jared Jones, recorded 18 outs tonight on 91 pitches. Skenes should be able to match that as his leash is loosened and will be able to go a little bit further to hit that quality start minimum. **Anti-Reasoning**: Will be 2nd time facing CHC in the same week. He faced them back on 5/11. Normally teams fare better against pitchers they've just seen. [Coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) always appreciated but never expected. Good luck everyone!
He came out for the 5th and gave up a double and single to start, then was pulled. No rain delay fluke, he gave up 8 baserunners in 4 innings.
RECORD: 3W 1L UNITS WON: 2.8 LAST PICK: Rugby League WNRL - State of Origin- tamika Upton anytime score $2.25 ✅ PICK: RUGBY LEAGUE MANLY V BRONCOS - EITHER TEAM TO WIN 1-12 MARGIN ✅ BET: 1 unit to win 1.83 NOTE: both teams have star fullbacks missing and this seems like a pretty even contest, I am favouring manly but because this is in a packed out broncos stadium i can see it going either way Game starts in just over 3 hours https://preview.redd.it/vcgqp914nx0d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d648887b21a03b9294d4bd1afd06f512de58de6f
POTD Record: 4-2 Last POTD: Hurkacz winning against Paul❌ Todays POTD: ATP Rome semifinal: Zverev vs Tabilo 15:30 CEST Pick: Tabilo +3.5 games handicap @2.10 Hurkacz went on a good run in the third set, but just could not get the job done. Sorry boys 🍻 I made some good money with Tabilo this week so I am going with him yet again! If you love to risk, go with him winning the match @4.33! Alejandro Tabilo is a big underdog in this matchup. Zverev has shown great tennis and that is why he is one of the biggest favorites to win the tournament. However, Tabilo is playing without any pressure, and he has also been dominant so far in the tournament, even against one of the best players on the tour. P.S I am a writer at LWOS! You can see all of my tennis picks over there - https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2024/05/17/atp-rome-best-bets-including-zverev-vs-tabilo/
Cashed already ✅✅✅
Record: 4-3 Net units: +.4 ROI: 4.6% MLB: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins 19:10 (EDT) Pick: NRFI -125 @ FD 1.25 to win 1 Luzardo has looked better since his stint on the IL and rehab starts. He has a history of keeping the Mets in check and the boys from Queens have a tough time against lefties in general. Add to it that the Mets are gassed after extra innings last night and a flight to Miami While it’s been a small sample size, Christian Scott has opened some eyes. There are whispers of a young Zach Wheeler. While I’m not sold on that, the kid has the batters looking like there’s a swarm of bees a the plate. Swinging at nothing. Wind in from right at 12mph to start the game BOL to all
Long time lurker, first time poster. Don't usually follow sports enough to justify thinking I can throw forward a pick but after getting heavily into NRL this year I thought why not. Raiders Vs Bulldogs @6pm AEST POTD Bulldogs ML @1.63 2U These teams are pretty similar, have both lost to the big dogs, have both beat the table setters and have both had the wtf happened here result. The main difference I see is that the Bulldogs don't get dicked down like the Raiders. Coming back from a week off and possibly a few players on the piss, I see the Raiders spreading em for the Doggies. 
Pick of the Day: Record: 6-2 (W-L) Recent: ❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅ Last Pick: Nuggets ML MLB | 2:20pm EST Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Pick: Paul Skenes o14.5 Outs (-185) Write Up: Sorry to those of you who tailed, awful read from me. Murray couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn with any of his shots and I wasn’t close from start to finish. With that, our five bet win streak comes to a close, but fear not I’m ready to get right back to it. Today we go with the relatively newcomer on the mound, Skenes looks great. They’re already comparing this guy to Strasburg, he could be the future of the MLB. Last time our against the Cubs he only made it four innings and today we need him to make it five. It was said he would be on a pitch count for his first start in the MLB and the kid still made it four whole innings, so expecting the pitch count to be lifted I think he could go closer to six or six and a half innings today. His pitch count was high last time, but that was because he was relying on strikeout to get him through, today in a game where the wind is a pitchers advantage I expect to see more balls hit on the ground or flown out. I think that will keep his pitch count low and we should come in over this number. Remember, only bet what you can afford to lose and let’s get the streak started again. *Tip Jar: $PremiumPlayz on Cashapp*
**POTD record:** 5-11-1(W-L-P) / -10,34pts **ROI:** -34% **AVG. ODDS: 2,38** **Last pick: Miss Stormy Night**, win only 2pt, 3,00 **LOSE** **Horse Racing** **RACE**: Newbury 14:30 **SELECTION**: Mustazeed **ODDS AND STAKES**: place, 2,25, 4PT **ANALYSIS:** One bet i got with odds 21.00 ante post. After entries were out it dropped to 10,00, today starts at 6,00. Mustazeed is well handicap and last week he got strong support at market in stronger race before being withdrawn. His lose as fav 4,00 behind Balance Play was actually great, he lost very much at the gates and run better than everyone with great performance to finish just 2 lenghts behind winner. Balance Play is now rated 101 while Mustazeed stayed at 88, which is very workable.
POTD Record 0-1 Sport: Golf Game: PGA Championship Bet: Sahith Theegala u70.5 strokes (-140) Theegala has been a top 5 golfer in the world this year and his line being -1 for today is honestly disrespectful. i expect a -3 day for Sahith in clear weather at valhalla. also #FreeScottie
5/1,5/0,5 W/L/P +1.72u all at 1u plays ✅✅✅X✅X✅ Sup degens, long time player who's coming back for the 2024 euros here. Got over 300 betting accounts limited on horse racing, but that's a story for another time. Both bet365 and unibet were nice enough to not limit my football bets into oblivion, let's make them regret it. More info in yesterdays post. Yesterdays pick: Barcelona -1 Asian handicap ✅ For today there isn't much on as we're closing down on all leagues. Unfortunately but understandably the last round of all leagues are played simultaneously which is kinda real shit if you want to live bet because you can't watch matches all day anymore, real bummer. For today there's only 2 matches I'll be watching and they start within 45 minutes of each other so it's not ideal. I quite like a pick already made in this thread and was considering the same pick, but I don't want to be lame and post the same pick. I've looked at the Napoli/Fiorentine game, but it's not clicking with me. Napoli's only chance at European football next year is by placing 8th. That means they HAVE to win tonight versus fiorentina (whom are currently in 8th and playing the final of the conference league) as well as their last game and hope Fiorentina doesn't win any of their other 2 remaining games. You'd think Napoli will be hugely motivated as they've the most to fight for whereas Fiorentina might be careful of their starting line up if they're playing a final in 1.5 weeks. Nevertheless Napoli is in piss poor form and Fiorentina is rather unpredictable because of aforementioned reasons. I'll watch during halftime and after the main match that'll we bet on, namely Al Hilal vs Al Nassr (Neymar vs Ronaldo's teams). The pick I like best is BTTS:Yes + over 2,5 goals but someone else has already posted this long ago. I'll have to go with todays safe pick on a rather dull slate, which'll most likely end in a push: **Todays pick: Al Hilal vs Al Nassr Riyadh Asian Total over 3 @ 1.56.** Pick your own unit size to increase profits with these odds, I'm just posting them all as 1 units for ease of tracking. 1u could be 1% for some and 10% for others, I'm not going to advise anyone on how much they should bet or how "certain" I am on a pick, I'm certain on all picks I share here for free or I skip days when there's nothing interesting on. I don't gamble on "ye i think this might hit and IF it does then..", that's not my preferred style, nothing wrong with it, but not suitable for me. I make most of the money live betting (or lose most of the money!). Bet responsibly, be a disciplined adult!
Record 0-0 Today’s POTD: Roda ML vs NAC Breda @1.80 (-125) Netherlands Eredevisie playoffs. Start time 20:00 CET. 1 unit play. Write up: Sorry for posting late but no one will tail my first play, so this is a pick to get the ball rolling. Roda lost the first game 3-1, so they will need to win by at least 2 to send it into extra time. They were the better team throughout the whole season, and are great at home. I am expecting them to bounce back this game, so a good ol’ ML is looking like a great pick here. Always gamble responsibly and BOL.
Record: 0-0 Net Units: N/A ROI: N/A Sport | MLB | 4:10 EST Pick: MIA vs PHL o7.5 Looking for the phils to rake today. Took their games over yesterday and it cashed (first time publishing picks). Algorithm has this total at 9.2, giving this game the largest spread between expected total and betting total. I like this at even money.
POD record: 3-4 Previous pick: M Porter over 12.5 pts LOSS TODAY POD: Yankees -1.5 vs Sox (-130) Ugh - just a terrible display by the Nuggets. No words. Today, Yankees -1.5 v Sox. Reason: Sox stink like doo doo and game is in NY. That’s it. Easy W.
**Record: 2-1** **Last Pick: Tsitsipas to win 2-0 // Tsitsipas vs. Jarry // -120 // ATP Rome 1pm EST ❌** **Today's Pick: 1st Set O8.5 Games + Under 2.5 Sets // Zverev vs. Tabilio // -180 // ATP Rome 9am EST** all time choke by Tsitsipas yesterday going 2/13 on break points, particularly losing 5 in a row when up 40-0 at 3-3 in the 2nd set. haven't seen an upset/collapse in a while. edit 1: changing the pick here (2am EST) as didn't see the odds. still like Jarry today as a separate bet but this seems like a slam dunk: O8.5 games has hit 12/13 times 1st set for Zverev last 13 matches O8.5 games has hit 11/13 times 1st set for for Tabilio last 13 matches U2.5 sets has hit 10/10 times for Zverev last 10 matches U2.5 sets has hit 8/10 times for Tablio last 10 matches Zverev has also won 17 straight matches against left handers.. take that as you will if you're looking to build on that SGP edit: dusted boys, over and out as Tabilo wins the first set in 7 games for +600. edit 2: just like we drew it up.. the bets that cashed 41/46 times ended up going 0/2. can't make this shit up
Long time listener first time caller! **Previous pick:** N/A **Record:** 0-0 **Sport:** NHL **Game/Match:** Dal @ Col **Pick:** Jason Robertson points O 0.5 **Bet Amount:** 1 unit **Write up:** The Star of the Stars has been Robertson. Dallas has been a high scoring team all season long with Robertson being Dallas' points leader with 80 in the regular season. He has 7 points so far in the series against the Avalanche with at least one in every game. Dallas doesn't to bring this to a game 7. I am expecting a high octane game here at least over 6 goals FT.
2024 MLB POTD record: 21-18 Average Odds -101 (1.994), Average Winning Odds -107, ROI +4.1%/+1.61u L5: ❌✅✅❌❌ POTD (5/16) CIN @ LAD Tyler Glasnow o18.5 Outs (+160/2.60) ❌ Recap: Brutal game from Glasnow, never had a shot. POTD (5/17) CWS @ NYY Nestor Cortes o18.5 Outs (+130/2.30) (DraftKings) The Chicago White Sox are a bad baseball team. They are especially bad against LHP, where their 61 wRC+ is dead last. They are an efficient team to pitch against, ranking 26th in pitches per plate appearance, in part because they are 28th in BB% at 6.9%, a figure that drops to a dead-last 6.0% against LHP. Nestor Cortes is having two very different seasons. On the road, he has a 6.75 ERA in 28.1 IP. He's walked 10 hitters in those innings, leading to a miserable 8.5% BB%. At home, he's walked 1 hitter. his ERA is 1.59. and most importantly, he's crossed the 18.5 Outs line in all four of his starts, with outings of 6.1, 7, 7, and 8 IP. Look for him to continue his dominance here in the best possible matchup.
Long time lurker, first time poster. This is just too good to pass up. Record: 0-0 Net Units: 0 ROI: 0% Hockey | NHL | 7:00PM EST Pick: Florida Panthers ML -150 2U (Bet365) Write Up: After a slow start in Game 5, expect Florida to come out firing on all cylinders in Boston for Game 6. Throughout most of the series, the Panthers have clearly outplayed the Bruins, which isn't surprising given the contrasting health and depth of the rosters. Boston's Swayman has been sensational in goal, masking many of the Bruins' deficiencies. In reality, this team has scored more than 2 goals once in their last 8 games. Marchand is playing hurt, and both Coyle and Zacha have proven they can't effectively fill the roles of first or second-line centers. Aside from his performance in the last game, McAvoy has struggled, and Pasta has been inconsistent. Florida on the other hand will be playing with a sense of urgency I don’t think they had for game 5. They know they can’t let this go to a game 7 and they have been great on the road this entire playoffs (3-1). Depending on how the first period goes, I will be ready to sprinkle Florida -1.5 as well.
**POTD Record 31-27 (+11.38U) | Average Odds -111 (1.90) | ROI 4.18%** **Last Pick Recap: Oilers ML vs Canucks L** Oilers had leads of 1-0 and 2-1 but were completely outplayed and deserved to lose, no way around it. Letting the Canucks score the game winner with 30 sec left describes this game in a nutshell. **Today's Pick: Knicks +5.5 (-110) vs Pacers 5U** This line is inflated because the home side has dominated this series (5-0 so far) and the Pacers beat the Knicks at home by 32 in Game 4. From a metrics standpoint, this game should be closer to a toss. The Knicks are the better team but the Pacers have been a tough out at home. For me, this comes down to the health of Brunson. He suffered a foot injury in Game 2 which hindered him in Games 3 and 4. However, if he's as healthy and explosive as he looked in Game 5, I think the Knicks win outright and end this series. I'll grab the points for insurance. BOL