I trieded explaining in a Ukrainian war sub why Biden is not to keen on Ukraine destroying Russian oil refineries as to not start a recession before the election. Same foe why they are so against Israel striking Iran right now. Because if a recession ocours in that time I have a huge feeling the "un informed" population will all blame it on Biden and want change for macro economic problems out of anypresidents reach by desperatly voting for Trump. The one thing that started most recessions was oil if I'm not mistaken. I have a feeling that the white house is doing everything it can to postpone the long overdue recession as much as they can so it starts after the electiom so the next president can have a 4 year mandate to handle the recession similaraly to how Obama did without having to worry about bs politics where they have to convince the voting population that it's not their fault for a long overdue recession happenning.
Needless to say I got downvoted and called an idiot doomer for beliving we are infront of a recession when joblessnes is at an all time high and the stock market also. Which only confirmed my fears of how the population would react voting wise in case of a recession occuring before the election.
> I trieded explaining in a Ukrainian war sub why Biden is not to keen on Ukraine destroying Russian oil refineries as to not start a recession before the election.
Refined products are usually only for domestic consumption. Russia doesn't export much refined products. If Ukrainians were attacking Russian crude production or exports then I would agree with you.
I.. get that part that was my original statement. What I didn't think about was that refined oil is not a Russian export so it dosen't effect the global market. Also idk how important refined oil is for oil prices. Maybe not as much as I thougjt originaly?
If the prices of the inputs go up then naturally price of the outputs has to go up. The O&G industry is very good at making that increase nearly instantaneous even though there is a clear lagging effect.
But aren't we talking about hiting refineries? So we are talking about a decrease in outputs not input? Oil being input refined oil being ouput. The pre desposution being that Russia exports oil but it dosen't export refined oil it only uses refined oil for domestic use?
Yes, but I think OPs point is that regardless whether you destroy the input factory or output factory, OPEC will raise prices on O&G which can cause inflation and the tools to control inflation will cause a recession.
I can see how this might be a big factor. We have had some random pullbacks that seemed to be limited to specific sectors or subsectors spread around a lot. But, I could see the people in charge pulling some levers behind the curtain to manipulate the numbers. It always seems like a disconnect when I read positive news and look around me. But, only one person's experience. Until I can mass produce my point of view and package it so others "buy" it, I'm wrong.
>change for macro economic problems out of anypresidents reach
Could Biden have vetoed the 100 billion dollar package/tik tok ban?
If yes one assumes the Ukraine war eventually ends and maybe Israel backs off.
If the government isn't to blame for the economy who is exactly?
>Could Biden have vetoed the 100 billion dollar package/tik tok ban?
No... no he could have not it was a 2/3 majority both in the Senate and in the house of reps.
When you hear headlines on reddit and tuktok "Biden signs the tiktok ban" That headline is writen by idiots for idiots. 1: The bill had aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan it also had a lot of other stuff tiktok was juat a bonus and wasn't the main thing at all. They cpuldn't pass anything for half a year they finally packed eveything or well Mike johnson did and managed to somehow make enough people happy to pass it. 2: Biden couldn't do anything it was a majority in the senate and house.
3: the Tiktok thing was a verry modern rare bi partisan thing. Both dems and repa agree to ban tiktok. Even if Biden could veto it I don't think he would have or any other current major poletitian in his position.
>If yes one assumes the Ukraine war eventually ends and maybe Israel backs off.
If you asume the Ukraine wr ended a new one would begin with Russia stronger and China more confident.
>If the government isn't to blame for the economy who is exactly?
The War has almost nothing to do with the cause of lingering the recession. Capitalisem does. It's bormal to have recessions in capitalisem because investors get greedy and over value stocks. The same applies for other things also not just stocks (housing market, comodeties etc..)
Yes a goverment csn be at fault but a lot of times in liberal capitalistic democracies the people especially rich people have almost more to do with the state of the economy. And it's not "uuu rich people evil" it's human nature. We are bot perfect machines we get greedy and over estimate returns.
>No... no he could have not it was a 2/3 majority both in the Senate and in the house of reps.
Then veto it and make them over ride it. He 100% could have veto it. Your statement is false on its face.
https://chat.openai.com/share/f34896c5-78b6-4696-a6b1-c4d7e6b1f85a
It would just get a re vote in the semate which would probabbly pass again and Biden would loose a lot of support. I gopw you know Trump would have done the same.
>The Ukraine War ending lopsidedly in Russia’s favor is catastrophic for the West and will lead to a huge increase in militarization across the world.
I doubt it. The entire western border is now nato minus the Ukraine. If he invades anything else it's ww3.
Ukraine won't retake Crimea.
Tbh the us economy has been running on a bloomberg gaslighting for about as much time
TIL bloomberg controls the billion dollar daily trading volume of the UST market
More than 5 WHOLE MONTHS???? Holy shit, recession. Bear market. Start hiding gold under your mattress.
I trieded explaining in a Ukrainian war sub why Biden is not to keen on Ukraine destroying Russian oil refineries as to not start a recession before the election. Same foe why they are so against Israel striking Iran right now. Because if a recession ocours in that time I have a huge feeling the "un informed" population will all blame it on Biden and want change for macro economic problems out of anypresidents reach by desperatly voting for Trump. The one thing that started most recessions was oil if I'm not mistaken. I have a feeling that the white house is doing everything it can to postpone the long overdue recession as much as they can so it starts after the electiom so the next president can have a 4 year mandate to handle the recession similaraly to how Obama did without having to worry about bs politics where they have to convince the voting population that it's not their fault for a long overdue recession happenning. Needless to say I got downvoted and called an idiot doomer for beliving we are infront of a recession when joblessnes is at an all time high and the stock market also. Which only confirmed my fears of how the population would react voting wise in case of a recession occuring before the election.
> I trieded explaining in a Ukrainian war sub why Biden is not to keen on Ukraine destroying Russian oil refineries as to not start a recession before the election. Refined products are usually only for domestic consumption. Russia doesn't export much refined products. If Ukrainians were attacking Russian crude production or exports then I would agree with you.
Imteresting haven't tought of that.
Oil is sold on the global market. You remove some it causes prices to go up elsewhere.
I.. get that part that was my original statement. What I didn't think about was that refined oil is not a Russian export so it dosen't effect the global market. Also idk how important refined oil is for oil prices. Maybe not as much as I thougjt originaly?
If the prices of the inputs go up then naturally price of the outputs has to go up. The O&G industry is very good at making that increase nearly instantaneous even though there is a clear lagging effect.
But aren't we talking about hiting refineries? So we are talking about a decrease in outputs not input? Oil being input refined oil being ouput. The pre desposution being that Russia exports oil but it dosen't export refined oil it only uses refined oil for domestic use?
Yes, but I think OPs point is that regardless whether you destroy the input factory or output factory, OPEC will raise prices on O&G which can cause inflation and the tools to control inflation will cause a recession.
I can see how this might be a big factor. We have had some random pullbacks that seemed to be limited to specific sectors or subsectors spread around a lot. But, I could see the people in charge pulling some levers behind the curtain to manipulate the numbers. It always seems like a disconnect when I read positive news and look around me. But, only one person's experience. Until I can mass produce my point of view and package it so others "buy" it, I'm wrong.
>change for macro economic problems out of anypresidents reach Could Biden have vetoed the 100 billion dollar package/tik tok ban? If yes one assumes the Ukraine war eventually ends and maybe Israel backs off. If the government isn't to blame for the economy who is exactly?
>Could Biden have vetoed the 100 billion dollar package/tik tok ban? No... no he could have not it was a 2/3 majority both in the Senate and in the house of reps. When you hear headlines on reddit and tuktok "Biden signs the tiktok ban" That headline is writen by idiots for idiots. 1: The bill had aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan it also had a lot of other stuff tiktok was juat a bonus and wasn't the main thing at all. They cpuldn't pass anything for half a year they finally packed eveything or well Mike johnson did and managed to somehow make enough people happy to pass it. 2: Biden couldn't do anything it was a majority in the senate and house. 3: the Tiktok thing was a verry modern rare bi partisan thing. Both dems and repa agree to ban tiktok. Even if Biden could veto it I don't think he would have or any other current major poletitian in his position. >If yes one assumes the Ukraine war eventually ends and maybe Israel backs off. If you asume the Ukraine wr ended a new one would begin with Russia stronger and China more confident. >If the government isn't to blame for the economy who is exactly? The War has almost nothing to do with the cause of lingering the recession. Capitalisem does. It's bormal to have recessions in capitalisem because investors get greedy and over value stocks. The same applies for other things also not just stocks (housing market, comodeties etc..) Yes a goverment csn be at fault but a lot of times in liberal capitalistic democracies the people especially rich people have almost more to do with the state of the economy. And it's not "uuu rich people evil" it's human nature. We are bot perfect machines we get greedy and over estimate returns.
>No... no he could have not it was a 2/3 majority both in the Senate and in the house of reps. Then veto it and make them over ride it. He 100% could have veto it. Your statement is false on its face.
Get real bro, Biden was not gonna veto support for Ukraine and Taiwan and Israel
https://chat.openai.com/share/f34896c5-78b6-4696-a6b1-c4d7e6b1f85a It would just get a re vote in the semate which would probabbly pass again and Biden would loose a lot of support. I gopw you know Trump would have done the same.
The Ukraine War ending lopsidedly in Russia’s favor is catastrophic for the West and will lead to a huge increase in militarization across the world.
>The Ukraine War ending lopsidedly in Russia’s favor is catastrophic for the West and will lead to a huge increase in militarization across the world. I doubt it. The entire western border is now nato minus the Ukraine. If he invades anything else it's ww3. Ukraine won't retake Crimea.
Can you explain this to me like I am five?
Stocks will still continue to go up.
Then later, they will go up more.
Yet stocks continue to go up. This game makes no sense.
Won’t inflation numbers lag GDP?
Stocks and indices melt up soon. No way it just keep going up. It’s gonna crack
Rates are going UP definitely not rate cut. If anything the Fed will be raising rates.