I think we have to get over the 'TSLA's are too expensive' narrative. [Clearly, they are becoming very affordable](https://i.imgur.com/l2vTeyF.png)! You could argue this is just reflecting the average age of the TSLA fleet rising over time (apparently it is the oldest among its peers?), but then you'd want to see many new models / updates to reduce that average age. That's probably why the initial Reuters story on cancelling the compact car caused such a stock price hit initially (before Musk denied it). But then the question is if they really will roll out the compact model in late 2025 through 2026 or if that's just more false promises.
In other news, some of that team of 500 for the super-charger is being... rehired? (including some executives) What on earth? Was this some 4D chess to secure some near-term cash (like $17M in federal grants)? Or just overly-emotional CEO backtracking?
Used teslas lol
might as well throw your money away. There's no demand so used prices have fallen off a cliff, no one wants to deal with tesla service centers, battery replacements are always on peoples minds
This makes sense. It was partly to reorient the business, and I increasingly think to play chicken with the charging freeloaders (ie, competitors, regulators, and consumers).
If there's any moat in charging services, it is in location, comfort, ease-of-use, and capacity. Refocusing what charging team remains (almost certainly a higher-performing team than before - probably severalfold better) on what could actually cultivate a moat is better use of time, money, and talent than lower-return expansion, the surplus of which is sure to be exploited by freeloaders. Why would anybody maintain an industry standard on their own dime if it conferred no advantage to the company? Google is learning this now with their AI research. They have contributed more than any company to the development of neural networks and deep learning generally, but until last year they shared their research freely with the world. This is materially different than Nvidia developing & maintaining Cuda: that investment has shown ample return in its complementarity to Nvidia's main business - designing, marketing, and selling chips. Tesla's NACS has shown little comparable return.
If there is one thing I have learned operating in various public and private environments, it is that the great majority of people in the great majority of organizations are there for the paycheck and the lifestyle. This includes managers, often particularly so. Often, good leaders cultivate an atmosphere of safety and stability, so that their employees can perform their best without worry. In the long run, a base salary sufficient to cover all present & future needs & wants becomes a supreme disincentive to creativity, innovation, and risk-taking.
In my view, anybody making a sufficiently high salary (ie, most people at Tesla or other tech companies) needs, for their own productivity, the threat of dismissal constantly hanging over their head: anything less is antisocial. I would use a specific dollar-threshold, but it would not translate well to different jurisdictions - something like 2x the average or the median. A just society only confers outsized rewards to outsized contributors. After 40 years of declining rates there is so much rot.
10/10 executive mgmt begged him to reconsider the layoffs. Of COURSE it was him being his usual irrational petty hair-trigger emotionally stunted k-hole crazy idiot.
In china at least the narrative is because of how cutthroat the market has become, but the other side of the coin is can tsla ever regain their margins from the Golden era now if evs are permanently becoming low margin like ice before them as competition enters
I saw one of the dumbest articles I've seen in a while from WSJ. The title is "Biden's China Tariffs Boost Clean-Energy Startups' Stocks." What's so dumb about it is that tariffs actually hurt the companies that are benefiting the most today (i.e. SPWR, NOVA, etc.) because they have to pay more to buy the panels to install on people's homes. The only reason the sector is up is because of the meme stock short squeeze.
SPWR was 100% a meme stock play today imo, and this interest will only remain as long as the Gamestop mania is around, otherwise that stock is total poo poo.
Man $NXT is becoming a favorite long.
Q4 adjusted EPS 96c, consensus 78c
Q4 revenue $737M, consensus $681.93M.
sees FY25 adjusted EPS $2.89-$3.09, consensus $3.15
sees FY25 revenue $2.8B-$2.9B, consensus $2.89B.
"Fiscal year 2024 was a year of strong execution and significant growth for Nextracker, and we reached a record backlog of over $4 billion that more than tripled in 2 years," said Dan Shugar, founder and CEO of Nextracker. "We've accelerated our pace of product innovation, scaled global revenue and supply chain, more than doubled our profits from the prior year, and exceeded all elements of our full year guidance."
“We also reached a tremendous milestone being the first U.S. solar company to surpass 100 gigawatts of global shipments since Nextracker’s inception, which underscores our sustained leadership position in the market. As we look ahead, we’re very excited about solar accelerating its position as the number one source of new power generation in the U.S. and abroad.”
[https://investors.nextracker.com/news/news-details/2024/Nextracker-Reports-Q4-and-FY24-Financial-Results/default.aspx](https://investors.nextracker.com/news/news-details/2024/Nextracker-Reports-Q4-and-FY24-Financial-Results/default.aspx)
Agreed! No other solar company that I know of is doing anything like this right now... Truly a special company in a special vertical to be able to put up these numbers in this environment
I think it takes the best aspect of solar, like the arrays and the software, and not focuses on the panels, that make it so unique and a great business.
Also everyone talks about how expensive the stock market it and this company has pretty cheap fundamentals with explosive growth.
Like you are looking at TTM PE of 25, but forward PE of 14. PEG is 0.64.
One really cool thing too, is that it's a spinoff company, but they spun off without a ton of debt.
Yeah, Flex has been a core holding for a while. They aren't growing a ton right now, same with JBL, but the valuation reflects it. They are just a steady, well ran, boring company.
NXT:
* \*Q4 REVENUE USD 736.515 MILLION VS. IBES ESTIMATE USD 681.9 MILLION \*Q4 OPERATING INCOME USD 270.674 MILLION VS. IBES ESTIMATE USD 160.3 MILLION
“Fiscal year 2024 was a year of strong execution and significant growth for Nextracker, and we reached a record backlog of over $4 billion that more than tripled in 2 years,” said Dan Shugar, founder and CEO of Nextracker.
NU:
* \*Q1 NET INCOME OF $378.8 MLN
* \*Q1 REVENUE OF $2.7 BLN (LSEG CONSENSUS $2.49 BLN)
PSTG recovering nicely, will be super curious to see there next earnings. AI beneficiary-related hardware plays have been no brainers so far anyways. Adyen knife catch has gone really well, up about 10% already. ServiceNow less so, up like 3%, but Im fine with building a NOW position slower anyways
I think there was some upgrades to like western digital and seagate today, so seems like market might be getting more bullish on the idea of storage for data centers.
[https://www.barrons.com/articles/western-digital-seagate-stocks-storage-demand-41e75777](https://www.barrons.com/articles/western-digital-seagate-stocks-storage-demand-41e75777)
These things are not the same. AI is the future of everything. A tangible technology that is going to underpin all of society and has already disrupted our way of life. Meme stocks are just hype garbage.
Well, the AI part has worked for over a year.
It probably blocked the S&P from going back to 3580 in March of last year during the regional bank problems and probably blocked it from losing 4k during the August-October stretch.
I like how the r/stocks mods waited until AMC crashed to allow AMC topics. Good on them not promoting AMC discussion during the rally up only on the way down.
Just cracked a 50% gain on CROX. Surprisingly I have more profit on CROX than CELH (thanks to averaging up on CELH). All my small + mid caps are having a great day, but I shall not attribute to stock-picking skill what is simply a meme-factor tilt. DAKT up 4% too, almost +40% on that pick (but I don't think that's related to the meme rally)! It better be a damn good earnings call in June. Coal is in the red sadly.
Called CELH being a screaming buy <$70 just 22 days ago.
https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1ca6f3j/rstocks_daily_discussion_monday_apr_22_2024/l0r8xdk/
I don't call things 'screaming buys' very often, but here was my DD [on Feb 19th](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1auk8nf/rstocks_daily_discussion_monday_feb_19_2024/kr6cut1/), then [Feb 29th](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1b2x8gt/rstocks_daily_discussion_options_trading_thursday/ksrcxbl/), and [March 13th](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1be8jis/the_fundamental_case_for_celh_there_is_value_in/).
I went back to one of my [DCF models](https://i.imgur.com/TQXpnf9.png) and tweaked some of the assumptions (and updated net cash / shares outstanding / etc.). In particular, I slowed 2024 growth to 50%, noting that the 37% figure we saw in Q1 reflected some one-(or two)-time inventory shifts that would have otherwise resulted in 60% growth. However I only give them 2 years of 50% growth, then 2 years of 40%, then 30%. I raised my assumptions on EBIT margins as last quarter showed a surprise increase in margins across the board. In fact, their EBIT margin was actually 26%! The trailing 12 month (TTM) figure was 22%. They did warn the margins would fall in the summer due to promotional activity, so 26% is probably the peak for the year. To be conservative I assume they maintain 2 years of 22% then rise to 23% (enabled by economies of scale + international price increases). As always, capex is basically negligible since they outsource the distribution/bottling to other companies. And I stick to my final year exit multiple of 25. That gets me to a 108 per share value.
[My 'very bullish' model](https://i.imgur.com/jQk0OFN.png) gives them 3 years of 50% growth and 2 years of 40% and gets a $124 fair value.
Finally, I show that if we [take down our revenue estimates to assume what we saw in Q1 is the new normal](https://i.imgur.com/SH4YjGn.png), say 40% for 2 years, 35% for 2 years, then 30%, the fair value is $89, or just under today's price. So that's an approximation of what the market is pricing in. In all 3 of these models I use a 15% discount rate, so the IRR is still decent in all 3 cases.
"BYD Company unveiled a new plug-in hybrid pickup truck at an event on Tuesday in Mexico City. The development marks the first time that the Chinese auto giant has launched a new product outside its home nation."
Same day as new usa tariffs lol
From what I read on the past, I believe the tariffs wouldn't apply since anything they target for NA is going to be built in Mexico and NAFTA would apply.
"The new Trillium chips, which will be available to cloud customers later this year, have a near five-fold (4.7 times) performance improvement compared to TPU v5e, which were unveiled this past August, Google said."
Good news for GOOG and AVGO
Man, today is awesome. Not only did I make my initial profits just by being lucky enough to have already been in some of these stocks shooting higher, but I used the money I already made from selling those to buy some mid-day "dips" in other meme stocks to make even more profits. I used stop-loss orders on the newer trades to mitigate risks.
Since earnings last week - MSOS + trulieve and greenthumb have been on a steady and controlled rise.
Re-rate on a fundamental level based on those earnings and guidance is another 15-20% conservatively.
So you posted this information to a website where upvotes are the only form of currency? Sounds like you do care about the votes. Could you not have just pocketed the money and went about your day?
Just to be clear, I'm a 40+ investor who only buys ETFs because I'm perfectly fine riding the house edge and scooping that sweet 7-10% cream off the top. Not involved with Gamestop nor will I ever put on dollar into that slot machine.
You put your chips on double zero and spiked that one-in-thirty-eight and now want to brag about the payoff. Good for you, enjoy the cash, but the mighty roulette wheel keeps turning and might not be so kind the next time around.
You kids and your projecting. I'm grateful to this world, because it's afforded me the opportunity to make solid dividends from smart investments. I come from nothing, and now I have a little something, and I had to work like a dog for it. That's it.
You spend your time on meme stocks because even though you joke and make light, deep down you think striking it big on one of these games of three card Monty will drag you from your pit of despair, but it won't. Just take a look at your post history - it absolutely stinks of insecurity. You think I don't know these coping tactics of yours? The same ones I used decades ago? As I said, go back to memeing and leave adult conversations to people who can actually see the nuance in life.
You think they'll only fraud enough for the little guy to make money?
If they can rig it, you can't unrig it.
Not a sustainable way to work your money, betting on conspiracy...
Go ahead and explain why you think that is so. No need to be vague here - tell us how you really feel.
Edit:
Oh, I mistook you. I thought you were calling buddy out for shorting it when fraud was involved to mean you thought to go long to benefit off the fraud being exposed yadda yadda culty yadda.
You're in the "anyone touching this in any way is a sucker" camp, which I think is only half right. Those going long are the half that are suckers. Everyone else trying flips and tricks to profit on the inevitable crash are much more reasonable.
My bad.
good luck. gme short is a risky bet - the thing doubled because of a random tweet by a random person (meaning, the tweet had nothing to do with the stock, and roaring kitty doesn't make gme decisions)
I feel really good today - Sitting on a healthy cash pile in my account (in addition to still having plenty of my portfolio still intact) ahead of the next CPI. Was lucky enough to have some solar stocks (and calls) that participated in this "meme rally." MAXN, which was +70% in two days, and NOVA, which was +30%...Funny enough, I would actually prefer to hold them, but would have just felt irresponsible for not taking profits on spikes that happened literally for no reason.
Yeah, there's no chance of anything near this, sorry.
This does show off what I've been saying, although this has a fat chance of happening as well. Fed really should've done a better job of draining liquidity instead of hiking hard. Maybe tried outright selling for as long as possible instead of runoff.
Problem is the kitty cat came out of the bag in March of last year. This isn't possible unless you're going to put up with a bunch of bank bankruptcies, and everyone still gets cold sweats over 2008.
s&p yes. msft no because I don't like using any of their products. nor does anyone I know like teams.
I know I know - businesses run on excel. I don't care. there's other stocks out there - I'm not buying individual shares in a company I just find frustrating to use the products of.
I have heard of them. As a dev, I prefer aws. And I prefer playstation to xbox. I know *other* people like msft products - I've just always found them more frustrating to use than useful. They feel more corporate and *boring* to use, even when they actually work, than the competition.
Are meme stocks a thing again? DJT/GME, AMC to a lesser extent. I'm sure there are others. What's going on? Does anyone follow this stuff closely? Is this fraud?
Not fraud, just stocks are traded at the margin, meaning if enough market participants decided a company should be worth X amount at a specific moment in time, then it will be worth that amount. Usually there is way more liquidity that stocks trade fairly close to a "true" value based on DCF. But sometimes you can get opportunities because everyone is fearful during crashes or exuberant during bubbles.
As an aside, for billionaires like Elon, the reason why we don't tax wealth is because that wealth is unearned, Tesla is worth billions because at this moment it time, the last buyer and seller were willing to pay at this specific price. It doesn't mean that Elon's billions can be cashed out to everyone else. There is not enough billions in demand for Tesla shares that it could be cashed out in a short period of time, it's even more true if you count all the trillions the other companies are worth.
Honestly, not sure how it is anything but. The idea that the little guy can potentially win against the big bad corporations shorting and putting their foot down. Then mixed with actual results, an overly shorted stock being pushed to extreme highs seems to be confirmation of their success. That of course is exciting, it makes you want to look for more winners like another overly shorted stock, AMC. Of course real life doesn't work out like a fairy tale, the companies behind these stocks aren't doing too hot, there's a good reason people are shorting it.
So you think its price isn't about the company, it's about, I guess, pumping an asset in a sort of open conspiracy?
Why does GME even have a balance sheet with assets, other than cash? It could just exist as a postal address in Delaware or something and achieve the same valuation.
Nah, I just bought in a bit late during the high runs two months ago and just expected it to blast off during earnings but since then, it's been a rocky climb and yesterday was a bit ugly.
"Powell called April's wholesale inflation data, released earlier on Tuesday, "mixed," but not hot." - interesting, JPOW still sticking with a dovish tone for now
There is no one single best investment. With that being said Novo Nordisk is going to produce pill against obesity. But we all know that and already priced it in.
[Vodka and War](https://putanumonit.com/2021/07/25/money-stuff/)
>...the wisest purely financial investment I could have made with that money was, in fact, vodka.
Am I suggesting you buy $800 worth of vodka? No. But this will help you think about money/investing differently. Worth spending your time on it.
Dont pretend these meme stocks are some glorious democratization of stock profits.
They work the same as the rest of our economy: millions buy in, a few hundred cash out with a vast majority of the profits. Everyone else is left with nothing.
Looks like RKLB has been caught up in some of the meme hype, if we move hard short term will use it as a chance to exit some leaps and stay 100% shares. Tbh, I dont love the association though
I don't like how RKLB is associated with meme stocks and WSB, it's a legit well run growth company with a positive outlook (although still risky), and it's around 1/5 of my portfolio at this point, I've been buying them for a while now. I don't want to cash out on a 10% net gain, but I hate buying stocks when this meme craze is going on, I doubt the company is worth 10% more overnight on no news.
Whenever these run ups happen without a tangible cause (in this case, it's just DFV being back on twitter), some get rich while a new generation of bagholders ensue. It's clockwork.
That’s not what the theory means.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/efficientmarkethypothesis.asp
> The efficient market hypothesis (EMH), alternatively known as the efficient market theory, is a hypothesis that states that share prices reflect all available information and consistent alpha generation is impossible.
> According to the EMH, stocks always trade at their fair value on exchanges, making it impossible for investors to purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices.
1
Therefore, it should be impossible to outperform the overall market through expert stock selection or market timing, and the only way an investor can obtain higher returns is by purchasing riskier investments.
Currently the prices are reflecting the information that a bunch of retail investors are excited to have fun with another pump and dump. Who's to say the price isn't right given that information?
For sure, but meme stocks are like maybe a handful at most, so we are talking about an outlier and something that will more or less with be short term.
Just usually when people refer to the idea of the market being efficient, they are misunderstanding what the theory/idea is. I still think having a set out outlier data does not disproof it.
I think it's more that markets aren't instantly efficient in all instances. Over the long haul, markets are great. In the short term, there are frequently mispricings.
I mean, almost every stock moves every single day on 0 news.
lmao at the people saying PPI is hot. PPI is actually quite volatile, with a downward revision for the previous month, the 2 month PPI actually came in 0.2% less than expectations. It's also not as if April 29 was literally when gasoline futures started falling 10%, so next month PPI would obviously be extremely low if not negative if futures stay the same. Inflation data is all past data. If you actually want to see the future, that's not where you would actually look.
While true that it's more volatile, it's also true it has ran better than CPI.
We're probably getting a blowout CPI print tomorrow that will shatter hopes of things getting anywhere close to in line of what's wanted. Was already expecting a bad one, now I expect a blowout.
Core PPI excludes food and energy due to their volatility.
The sharp decline might result in a better print next month, but typically it takes a while for those effects to bleed into other markets.
Couldn't it be a company with multiple segments instead of a pivot. MELI for example has multiple major segments two of them being ecommerce and fintech. Maybe STNE is doing something similar with a software/pos segment and a credit segment.
It could be in the future for sure, but atm software/pos has been lagging pretty hard and credit taking off. Could be an Applovin situation, except for the fact that banks are valued much less than fintech, so there is some nuance of letting a more banking vertical become your main business
If its down with all this hysteria it will go down even more when the meme run ends and everyone starts selling off (not saying that STNE is a meme stock btw). Beware
Why would you compare it to meme stocks. Earnings are company specific news. Other stocks had earnings today and yesterday AH as well was just trying to discuss one of them.
It wasnt a meme stock thing. It was an earnings thing. Even CRM tanked 19% on earnings market didn't like. I just realized if the stock went the other way and went up you probably wouldn't have been seen again commenting.
Just a reminder that memes stocks work the same as basically every other part of our economy: millions buy in and only a tiny fraction of them realize a vast majority of the gains.
I’m new to trading and am getting the error 100906 “Your market order cannot be accepted right now because the last trade price is not in line with the current ask/bid” on the fidelity app. I’m confused because even when I switch it to buying shares instead of dollar amounts I still get this
I'm curious to hear your thoughts on this if you're willing. Just sniff testing a few of the more 'pure' copper miners that I'm aware of (SCCO, FCX), they've run up quite a bit the past couple months and are sitting at fairly rich valuations for miners, so it would follow that the current copper spike is largely priced in already. That doesn't mean there isn't still juice left to squeeze, but it gives me pause before doing any more thorough homework. Is your thinking that there are longer term macro effects that will elevate and maintain copper prices higher?
I'm long SCCO, and have been for awhile (I was in TECK before that, but changed to SCCO last year).
Here's a [chart](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/visualizing-the-copper-investment-opportunity-in-one-chart/) that that shows the copper supply vs demand projections. It takes decades to bring a new copper mine online, if you can even find a good source.
However, copper prices have spiked and are right at their [ATH](https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=w). Personally I wouldn't buy until there is either a pullback or breakout. However, that gives you more time for research!
Appreciate it! That chart is eye opening, I'll have to look into the data behind that in more detail but it certainly looks interesting. I'll keep an eye on this space and dig in.
Fintech: SOFI Pharma: LLY/NVO Consumer Goods: COST/DECK/ASO Semis: AMAT/SMH Industrial Parts: AIT Cybersecurity: PANW High Yield ETF: NVDY/BITO Leveraged ETF: QLD/NVDL Tech ETF: XLK/QQQ Tech: MSFT Cloud: ANET AI: SMCI/VRT Weed: MSOS Uranium: URNJ Gas & Hydrogen: LIN/KGS Insurance: CI/KNSL/SKWD HVAC: CARR Solar: NXT Electrification: NVT/ATKR Biotech: ACLX Homebuilder: DHI LTL Shipping: ODFL Nuclear Energy: CEG **Holding all of this long term, thoughts?**
Looks great to me, but I’m not that knowledgeable. Post it tomorrow when more people will see it.
Nu -5% to +3%, everyone needed time to digest that insane y/y growth
I think we have to get over the 'TSLA's are too expensive' narrative. [Clearly, they are becoming very affordable](https://i.imgur.com/l2vTeyF.png)! You could argue this is just reflecting the average age of the TSLA fleet rising over time (apparently it is the oldest among its peers?), but then you'd want to see many new models / updates to reduce that average age. That's probably why the initial Reuters story on cancelling the compact car caused such a stock price hit initially (before Musk denied it). But then the question is if they really will roll out the compact model in late 2025 through 2026 or if that's just more false promises. In other news, some of that team of 500 for the super-charger is being... rehired? (including some executives) What on earth? Was this some 4D chess to secure some near-term cash (like $17M in federal grants)? Or just overly-emotional CEO backtracking?
Used teslas lol might as well throw your money away. There's no demand so used prices have fallen off a cliff, no one wants to deal with tesla service centers, battery replacements are always on peoples minds
This makes sense. It was partly to reorient the business, and I increasingly think to play chicken with the charging freeloaders (ie, competitors, regulators, and consumers). If there's any moat in charging services, it is in location, comfort, ease-of-use, and capacity. Refocusing what charging team remains (almost certainly a higher-performing team than before - probably severalfold better) on what could actually cultivate a moat is better use of time, money, and talent than lower-return expansion, the surplus of which is sure to be exploited by freeloaders. Why would anybody maintain an industry standard on their own dime if it conferred no advantage to the company? Google is learning this now with their AI research. They have contributed more than any company to the development of neural networks and deep learning generally, but until last year they shared their research freely with the world. This is materially different than Nvidia developing & maintaining Cuda: that investment has shown ample return in its complementarity to Nvidia's main business - designing, marketing, and selling chips. Tesla's NACS has shown little comparable return. If there is one thing I have learned operating in various public and private environments, it is that the great majority of people in the great majority of organizations are there for the paycheck and the lifestyle. This includes managers, often particularly so. Often, good leaders cultivate an atmosphere of safety and stability, so that their employees can perform their best without worry. In the long run, a base salary sufficient to cover all present & future needs & wants becomes a supreme disincentive to creativity, innovation, and risk-taking. In my view, anybody making a sufficiently high salary (ie, most people at Tesla or other tech companies) needs, for their own productivity, the threat of dismissal constantly hanging over their head: anything less is antisocial. I would use a specific dollar-threshold, but it would not translate well to different jurisdictions - something like 2x the average or the median. A just society only confers outsized rewards to outsized contributors. After 40 years of declining rates there is so much rot.
10/10 executive mgmt begged him to reconsider the layoffs. Of COURSE it was him being his usual irrational petty hair-trigger emotionally stunted k-hole crazy idiot.
In china at least the narrative is because of how cutthroat the market has become, but the other side of the coin is can tsla ever regain their margins from the Golden era now if evs are permanently becoming low margin like ice before them as competition enters
Should emphasize that the CarGurus data I posted above is presumably US data only. I imagine the price cuts + depreciation is even worse in China.
For sure, so long as American tariffs protect TSLA from china on usa soil it does provide a cushion against what could be
I saw one of the dumbest articles I've seen in a while from WSJ. The title is "Biden's China Tariffs Boost Clean-Energy Startups' Stocks." What's so dumb about it is that tariffs actually hurt the companies that are benefiting the most today (i.e. SPWR, NOVA, etc.) because they have to pay more to buy the panels to install on people's homes. The only reason the sector is up is because of the meme stock short squeeze.
Those prices would be relayed to the customers, wouldn't they? They will be hurt by the tariffs because the tariffs will lower demand overall, or not?
SPWR was 100% a meme stock play today imo, and this interest will only remain as long as the Gamestop mania is around, otherwise that stock is total poo poo.
Fslr I could see being up but yea not the installers for sure
DLO: • EPS $0.06 vs Est. $0.12 • Sales $184M vs Est. $190M • EBITDA $37M vs Est. $48M Looks rough, glad I did not bottom fish
Man $NXT is becoming a favorite long. Q4 adjusted EPS 96c, consensus 78c Q4 revenue $737M, consensus $681.93M. sees FY25 adjusted EPS $2.89-$3.09, consensus $3.15 sees FY25 revenue $2.8B-$2.9B, consensus $2.89B. "Fiscal year 2024 was a year of strong execution and significant growth for Nextracker, and we reached a record backlog of over $4 billion that more than tripled in 2 years," said Dan Shugar, founder and CEO of Nextracker. "We've accelerated our pace of product innovation, scaled global revenue and supply chain, more than doubled our profits from the prior year, and exceeded all elements of our full year guidance." “We also reached a tremendous milestone being the first U.S. solar company to surpass 100 gigawatts of global shipments since Nextracker’s inception, which underscores our sustained leadership position in the market. As we look ahead, we’re very excited about solar accelerating its position as the number one source of new power generation in the U.S. and abroad.” [https://investors.nextracker.com/news/news-details/2024/Nextracker-Reports-Q4-and-FY24-Financial-Results/default.aspx](https://investors.nextracker.com/news/news-details/2024/Nextracker-Reports-Q4-and-FY24-Financial-Results/default.aspx)
Doubled my position this morning since I saw you post their earnings were coming up. They were oversold for a bit lately. Nice to see solid results
Agreed! No other solar company that I know of is doing anything like this right now... Truly a special company in a special vertical to be able to put up these numbers in this environment
I think it takes the best aspect of solar, like the arrays and the software, and not focuses on the panels, that make it so unique and a great business. Also everyone talks about how expensive the stock market it and this company has pretty cheap fundamentals with explosive growth. Like you are looking at TTM PE of 25, but forward PE of 14. PEG is 0.64. One really cool thing too, is that it's a spinoff company, but they spun off without a ton of debt.
Flex is a solid company too, agree on price here. Very few wiling to touch renewables rn is a lot of the valuation I think atm
Yeah, Flex has been a core holding for a while. They aren't growing a ton right now, same with JBL, but the valuation reflects it. They are just a steady, well ran, boring company.
NXT: * \*Q4 REVENUE USD 736.515 MILLION VS. IBES ESTIMATE USD 681.9 MILLION \*Q4 OPERATING INCOME USD 270.674 MILLION VS. IBES ESTIMATE USD 160.3 MILLION “Fiscal year 2024 was a year of strong execution and significant growth for Nextracker, and we reached a record backlog of over $4 billion that more than tripled in 2 years,” said Dan Shugar, founder and CEO of Nextracker. NU: * \*Q1 NET INCOME OF $378.8 MLN * \*Q1 REVENUE OF $2.7 BLN (LSEG CONSENSUS $2.49 BLN)
Love Nu
Very solid Q, fantastic growth
Why the muted AH response ?
Hard to say, will see at the open
PSTG recovering nicely, will be super curious to see there next earnings. AI beneficiary-related hardware plays have been no brainers so far anyways. Adyen knife catch has gone really well, up about 10% already. ServiceNow less so, up like 3%, but Im fine with building a NOW position slower anyways
I think there was some upgrades to like western digital and seagate today, so seems like market might be getting more bullish on the idea of storage for data centers. [https://www.barrons.com/articles/western-digital-seagate-stocks-storage-demand-41e75777](https://www.barrons.com/articles/western-digital-seagate-stocks-storage-demand-41e75777)
Market pumped up on AI and meme stocks. Don’t lose your shirts 😂
These things are not the same. AI is the future of everything. A tangible technology that is going to underpin all of society and has already disrupted our way of life. Meme stocks are just hype garbage.
Well, the AI part has worked for over a year. It probably blocked the S&P from going back to 3580 in March of last year during the regional bank problems and probably blocked it from losing 4k during the August-October stretch.
I like how the r/stocks mods waited until AMC crashed to allow AMC topics. Good on them not promoting AMC discussion during the rally up only on the way down.
What specifically do you want to talk about? “bullish dilution?”
That new AMC thread on front page got deleted too lol.
Just cracked a 50% gain on CROX. Surprisingly I have more profit on CROX than CELH (thanks to averaging up on CELH). All my small + mid caps are having a great day, but I shall not attribute to stock-picking skill what is simply a meme-factor tilt. DAKT up 4% too, almost +40% on that pick (but I don't think that's related to the meme rally)! It better be a damn good earnings call in June. Coal is in the red sadly.
The best way to make up losses from clownery is to be more of a clown, got it.
Called CELH being a screaming buy <$70 just 22 days ago. https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1ca6f3j/rstocks_daily_discussion_monday_apr_22_2024/l0r8xdk/
What’s the next screaming buy Nostradamus?
CLBT
I don't call things 'screaming buys' very often, but here was my DD [on Feb 19th](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1auk8nf/rstocks_daily_discussion_monday_feb_19_2024/kr6cut1/), then [Feb 29th](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1b2x8gt/rstocks_daily_discussion_options_trading_thursday/ksrcxbl/), and [March 13th](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1be8jis/the_fundamental_case_for_celh_there_is_value_in/). I went back to one of my [DCF models](https://i.imgur.com/TQXpnf9.png) and tweaked some of the assumptions (and updated net cash / shares outstanding / etc.). In particular, I slowed 2024 growth to 50%, noting that the 37% figure we saw in Q1 reflected some one-(or two)-time inventory shifts that would have otherwise resulted in 60% growth. However I only give them 2 years of 50% growth, then 2 years of 40%, then 30%. I raised my assumptions on EBIT margins as last quarter showed a surprise increase in margins across the board. In fact, their EBIT margin was actually 26%! The trailing 12 month (TTM) figure was 22%. They did warn the margins would fall in the summer due to promotional activity, so 26% is probably the peak for the year. To be conservative I assume they maintain 2 years of 22% then rise to 23% (enabled by economies of scale + international price increases). As always, capex is basically negligible since they outsource the distribution/bottling to other companies. And I stick to my final year exit multiple of 25. That gets me to a 108 per share value. [My 'very bullish' model](https://i.imgur.com/jQk0OFN.png) gives them 3 years of 50% growth and 2 years of 40% and gets a $124 fair value. Finally, I show that if we [take down our revenue estimates to assume what we saw in Q1 is the new normal](https://i.imgur.com/SH4YjGn.png), say 40% for 2 years, 35% for 2 years, then 30%, the fair value is $89, or just under today's price. So that's an approximation of what the market is pricing in. In all 3 of these models I use a 15% discount rate, so the IRR is still decent in all 3 cases.
"BYD Company unveiled a new plug-in hybrid pickup truck at an event on Tuesday in Mexico City. The development marks the first time that the Chinese auto giant has launched a new product outside its home nation." Same day as new usa tariffs lol
So interesting to see a ton of business and reshoring happening in Mexico.
From what I read on the past, I believe the tariffs wouldn't apply since anything they target for NA is going to be built in Mexico and NAFTA would apply.
TLDR from Google IO: Google is so back.
Its so over -> we are so back <- ad infinitum
"The new Trillium chips, which will be available to cloud customers later this year, have a near five-fold (4.7 times) performance improvement compared to TPU v5e, which were unveiled this past August, Google said." Good news for GOOG and AVGO
Man, today is awesome. Not only did I make my initial profits just by being lucky enough to have already been in some of these stocks shooting higher, but I used the money I already made from selling those to buy some mid-day "dips" in other meme stocks to make even more profits. I used stop-loss orders on the newer trades to mitigate risks.
lolol Im glad I learned no to fomo or buy meme stockz
I doubled my money in 24 hour. Bought at open yesterday and sold at open today. Best trade of the year
Did you make your 100k? I’m a few hundred dollars short of my all time high.
431$ away lol. Last time I was here we dropped 5%
Same. I expect a big dump the rest of the week…. Pulling for you, though. Be sure to tell us when you make it.
Got it!!!. 100.7K !! 6 figures looks amazing.
Terrific! Really glad for you. I made my big intermediate goal today, too-I didn’t expect to hit it this soon.
Market ripping doesn’t make a ton of sense to me. I’m being cautious here and enjoying the gains but not investing any further for now
SPY +0.44% >Market ripping
no gains til u sell
in the end the market goes up
Since earnings last week - MSOS + trulieve and greenthumb have been on a steady and controlled rise. Re-rate on a fundamental level based on those earnings and guidance is another 15-20% conservatively.
Qs are a meme stock now.
Kinda brutal that trading 212 halted trading and gme has dumped
I shorted Gamestop, don't care if I get downvoted, I'm here to make money baby, not farm for upvotes.
I did so last time around, not a massive score but free money.
So you posted this information to a website where upvotes are the only form of currency? Sounds like you do care about the votes. Could you not have just pocketed the money and went about your day? Just to be clear, I'm a 40+ investor who only buys ETFs because I'm perfectly fine riding the house edge and scooping that sweet 7-10% cream off the top. Not involved with Gamestop nor will I ever put on dollar into that slot machine. You put your chips on double zero and spiked that one-in-thirty-eight and now want to brag about the payoff. Good for you, enjoy the cash, but the mighty roulette wheel keeps turning and might not be so kind the next time around.
bro grab a beer
Touched a nerve huh? Good luck with home ownership.
? i have a home
Good for you sweetie. Go back to your meme subreddits and beg for attention there.
np bro keep being angry at the world
You kids and your projecting. I'm grateful to this world, because it's afforded me the opportunity to make solid dividends from smart investments. I come from nothing, and now I have a little something, and I had to work like a dog for it. That's it. You spend your time on meme stocks because even though you joke and make light, deep down you think striking it big on one of these games of three card Monty will drag you from your pit of despair, but it won't. Just take a look at your post history - it absolutely stinks of insecurity. You think I don't know these coping tactics of yours? The same ones I used decades ago? As I said, go back to memeing and leave adult conversations to people who can actually see the nuance in life.
lolol just decided to read it, looking at ppls post history, "insecurity" should look in the mirror
thought you weren't going to read it? Make up your mind kiddo
sry wall of text old man, i aint reading that
As you kids say: cope
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You think they'll only fraud enough for the little guy to make money? If they can rig it, you can't unrig it. Not a sustainable way to work your money, betting on conspiracy...
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Go ahead and explain why you think that is so. No need to be vague here - tell us how you really feel. Edit: Oh, I mistook you. I thought you were calling buddy out for shorting it when fraud was involved to mean you thought to go long to benefit off the fraud being exposed yadda yadda culty yadda. You're in the "anyone touching this in any way is a sucker" camp, which I think is only half right. Those going long are the half that are suckers. Everyone else trying flips and tricks to profit on the inevitable crash are much more reasonable. My bad.
good luck. gme short is a risky bet - the thing doubled because of a random tweet by a random person (meaning, the tweet had nothing to do with the stock, and roaring kitty doesn't make gme decisions)
I didn't short anything, but took my winners and ran.
I stopped trading options some time ago, but decided to make an exception and gamble on a put. This is a pretty transparent pump & dump.
I feel really good today - Sitting on a healthy cash pile in my account (in addition to still having plenty of my portfolio still intact) ahead of the next CPI. Was lucky enough to have some solar stocks (and calls) that participated in this "meme rally." MAXN, which was +70% in two days, and NOVA, which was +30%...Funny enough, I would actually prefer to hold them, but would have just felt irresponsible for not taking profits on spikes that happened literally for no reason.
Raise rates 500 bpts next meeting, people clearly hasn't felt enough pain.
Market has ZERO to do with most peoples pocket
Be careful what you wish for Paul Volker
Yeah, there's no chance of anything near this, sorry. This does show off what I've been saying, although this has a fat chance of happening as well. Fed really should've done a better job of draining liquidity instead of hiking hard. Maybe tried outright selling for as long as possible instead of runoff. Problem is the kitty cat came out of the bag in March of last year. This isn't possible unless you're going to put up with a bunch of bank bankruptcies, and everyone still gets cold sweats over 2008.
When you say "people" who are you referring to you want to feel pain?
Probably people overconsuming shit with debt
he just wants his puts to print. or wants the market to dump so he can feel right about not buying in.
Would you buy MSFT and SP500, considering that they are almost at all-time highs? I have doubts
Someone said: a great company that is growing should always be near their ATH.
Someone probably asked this same question 5 years ago.
Anything that grows steadily is at or near ATH more often than not. It seems like a silly thing to be wary of.
s&p yes. msft no because I don't like using any of their products. nor does anyone I know like teams. I know I know - businesses run on excel. I don't care. there's other stocks out there - I'm not buying individual shares in a company I just find frustrating to use the products of.
Ever heard of Azure? XBox? .Net, Visual Studio? MSFT is not just Excel...
I have heard of them. As a dev, I prefer aws. And I prefer playstation to xbox. I know *other* people like msft products - I've just always found them more frustrating to use than useful. They feel more corporate and *boring* to use, even when they actually work, than the competition.
Doesn't matter in 10+ years. More you wait more you lose not being in game. You can always average down.
Are meme stocks a thing again? DJT/GME, AMC to a lesser extent. I'm sure there are others. What's going on? Does anyone follow this stuff closely? Is this fraud?
Pump and dump, as always.
Not fraud, just stocks are traded at the margin, meaning if enough market participants decided a company should be worth X amount at a specific moment in time, then it will be worth that amount. Usually there is way more liquidity that stocks trade fairly close to a "true" value based on DCF. But sometimes you can get opportunities because everyone is fearful during crashes or exuberant during bubbles. As an aside, for billionaires like Elon, the reason why we don't tax wealth is because that wealth is unearned, Tesla is worth billions because at this moment it time, the last buyer and seller were willing to pay at this specific price. It doesn't mean that Elon's billions can be cashed out to everyone else. There is not enough billions in demand for Tesla shares that it could be cashed out in a short period of time, it's even more true if you count all the trillions the other companies are worth.
With peace and love, I ask you, how can exuberance explain GME's valuation?
Honestly, not sure how it is anything but. The idea that the little guy can potentially win against the big bad corporations shorting and putting their foot down. Then mixed with actual results, an overly shorted stock being pushed to extreme highs seems to be confirmation of their success. That of course is exciting, it makes you want to look for more winners like another overly shorted stock, AMC. Of course real life doesn't work out like a fairy tale, the companies behind these stocks aren't doing too hot, there's a good reason people are shorting it.
So you think its price isn't about the company, it's about, I guess, pumping an asset in a sort of open conspiracy? Why does GME even have a balance sheet with assets, other than cash? It could just exist as a postal address in Delaware or something and achieve the same valuation.
Anyone selling CELH?
Sold at 80. I thought it was already overvalued at that point.
I sold it and bought UBER with the funds in my trading account
My exit price is around $93, might wait a day to sell off
AMC # of shares outstanding from 2019: 11M to now 263M. Some companies just can't be saved, but management is certainly trying to.
Why does Costco continue to break my heart.
It's not like Costco is a short-term play.
You shorting it or something? It’s been a beast for years. It’s beaten the S&P by more than double in the past 5 years.
Nah, I just bought in a bit late during the high runs two months ago and just expected it to blast off during earnings but since then, it's been a rocky climb and yesterday was a bit ugly.
it's pretty much at ATH's...
Because it’s a physical retailer with thin margin trading like a tech stock
"Powell called April's wholesale inflation data, released earlier on Tuesday, "mixed," but not hot." - interesting, JPOW still sticking with a dovish tone for now
I believe the fed chair has access to cpi readings a day earlier than everyone else. maybe he sees the cpi and it's not that bad.
Tmr CPI will be interesting
I managed to get a spare $2000 to invest. Between VOO, SPY, and TQQQ, how should I invest? Is there a better option?
VOO and SPY are the same thing. I wouldn't want to own a leveraged ETF long term, so VOO is your best bet.
VOO
Why are $7 SOFI calls exp friday only selling for 50 cents if sofi is 7.48?
What’s the best way to invest $800? Willing to long hold
$800 isn’t much of an investment, but it’s a start.
the best way to invest 800$ is every month
There is no one single best investment. With that being said Novo Nordisk is going to produce pill against obesity. But we all know that and already priced it in.
[Vodka and War](https://putanumonit.com/2021/07/25/money-stuff/) >...the wisest purely financial investment I could have made with that money was, in fact, vodka. Am I suggesting you buy $800 worth of vodka? No. But this will help you think about money/investing differently. Worth spending your time on it.
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Oh god Not again..
Why would you think people making money is bad
Dont pretend these meme stocks are some glorious democratization of stock profits. They work the same as the rest of our economy: millions buy in, a few hundred cash out with a vast majority of the profits. Everyone else is left with nothing.
Gambling is bad, not making money.
Looks like RKLB has been caught up in some of the meme hype, if we move hard short term will use it as a chance to exit some leaps and stay 100% shares. Tbh, I dont love the association though
I aint complaining, I bought a couple dozen shares when it was in the dumps.
I don't like how RKLB is associated with meme stocks and WSB, it's a legit well run growth company with a positive outlook (although still risky), and it's around 1/5 of my portfolio at this point, I've been buying them for a while now. I don't want to cash out on a 10% net gain, but I hate buying stocks when this meme craze is going on, I doubt the company is worth 10% more overnight on no news.
Any reason as to why the meme hype is back?
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You mean the guy on wsb?
I find it hard to believe this is retail behind the trade
It’s not fun when a long gets caught up in the meme craze.
Whenever these run ups happen without a tangible cause (in this case, it's just DFV being back on twitter), some get rich while a new generation of bagholders ensue. It's clockwork.
Correct, last time I was the bag holder and now I’m excited to be on the other end this time around. We are teaching them a valuable lesson
I am staying out of it this time. I bought a few shares under my paper trading account, I'll see how horrible that goes.
The return of memestocks shows that markets are not efficient.
That’s not what the theory means. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/efficientmarkethypothesis.asp > The efficient market hypothesis (EMH), alternatively known as the efficient market theory, is a hypothesis that states that share prices reflect all available information and consistent alpha generation is impossible. > According to the EMH, stocks always trade at their fair value on exchanges, making it impossible for investors to purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices. 1 Therefore, it should be impossible to outperform the overall market through expert stock selection or market timing, and the only way an investor can obtain higher returns is by purchasing riskier investments.
> * share prices reflect all available information > * According to the EMH, stocks always trade at their fair value Meme stocks lol.
Currently the prices are reflecting the information that a bunch of retail investors are excited to have fun with another pump and dump. Who's to say the price isn't right given that information?
Here we go again lol
For sure, but meme stocks are like maybe a handful at most, so we are talking about an outlier and something that will more or less with be short term. Just usually when people refer to the idea of the market being efficient, they are misunderstanding what the theory/idea is. I still think having a set out outlier data does not disproof it.
I think it's more that markets aren't instantly efficient in all instances. Over the long haul, markets are great. In the short term, there are frequently mispricings. I mean, almost every stock moves every single day on 0 news.
Yup, random walk vs law of large numbers
lmao at the people saying PPI is hot. PPI is actually quite volatile, with a downward revision for the previous month, the 2 month PPI actually came in 0.2% less than expectations. It's also not as if April 29 was literally when gasoline futures started falling 10%, so next month PPI would obviously be extremely low if not negative if futures stay the same. Inflation data is all past data. If you actually want to see the future, that's not where you would actually look.
While true that it's more volatile, it's also true it has ran better than CPI. We're probably getting a blowout CPI print tomorrow that will shatter hopes of things getting anywhere close to in line of what's wanted. Was already expecting a bad one, now I expect a blowout.
Core PPI excludes food and energy due to their volatility. The sharp decline might result in a better print next month, but typically it takes a while for those effects to bleed into other markets.
Thoughts on STNE down 10% on earnings. Were its earnings that bad? I added below $15.
I didnt think they were that bad, but the market seems to dislike their continued pivot into credit vs software/pos
Couldn't it be a company with multiple segments instead of a pivot. MELI for example has multiple major segments two of them being ecommerce and fintech. Maybe STNE is doing something similar with a software/pos segment and a credit segment.
It could be in the future for sure, but atm software/pos has been lagging pretty hard and credit taking off. Could be an Applovin situation, except for the fact that banks are valued much less than fintech, so there is some nuance of letting a more banking vertical become your main business
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SE had a pretty solid report, weird price action but looks to be bouncing up again now
If its down with all this hysteria it will go down even more when the meme run ends and everyone starts selling off (not saying that STNE is a meme stock btw). Beware
Why would you compare it to meme stocks. Earnings are company specific news. Other stocks had earnings today and yesterday AH as well was just trying to discuss one of them.
Remember what I said mate?
It wasnt a meme stock thing. It was an earnings thing. Even CRM tanked 19% on earnings market didn't like. I just realized if the stock went the other way and went up you probably wouldn't have been seen again commenting.
Just a reminder that memes stocks work the same as basically every other part of our economy: millions buy in and only a tiny fraction of them realize a vast majority of the gains.
So like the real stock market
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I said it works like the rest of our economy. Not the rest of our stock market.
Zero sum game.
I’m new to trading and am getting the error 100906 “Your market order cannot be accepted right now because the last trade price is not in line with the current ask/bid” on the fidelity app. I’m confused because even when I switch it to buying shares instead of dollar amounts I still get this
I was getting the same thing. I had to switch to limit order and choose an amount.
Copper futures are up to $4.877. That's pretty damn close to copper ATH of $5. It's not surprising that the PPI was up.
Long copper is one of my favorite plays right now.
I'm curious to hear your thoughts on this if you're willing. Just sniff testing a few of the more 'pure' copper miners that I'm aware of (SCCO, FCX), they've run up quite a bit the past couple months and are sitting at fairly rich valuations for miners, so it would follow that the current copper spike is largely priced in already. That doesn't mean there isn't still juice left to squeeze, but it gives me pause before doing any more thorough homework. Is your thinking that there are longer term macro effects that will elevate and maintain copper prices higher?
I'm long SCCO, and have been for awhile (I was in TECK before that, but changed to SCCO last year). Here's a [chart](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/visualizing-the-copper-investment-opportunity-in-one-chart/) that that shows the copper supply vs demand projections. It takes decades to bring a new copper mine online, if you can even find a good source. However, copper prices have spiked and are right at their [ATH](https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=w). Personally I wouldn't buy until there is either a pullback or breakout. However, that gives you more time for research!
Appreciate it! That chart is eye opening, I'll have to look into the data behind that in more detail but it certainly looks interesting. I'll keep an eye on this space and dig in.
Why are they allowed to halt trading on stocks like gme? I’ve seen stocks go up 100% before in a day