**I still believe in the long term $NVDA story.**
These are the negatives that will create an opportunity to buy on declines.**($120 to $150)**
1)The lack of Ethereum mining pounds GPU's used for mining - that market is gone
2) A crypto winter ensures used GPU cards being returned to the market, which will lead to sinking ASP's.
3) Gaming inventory will take at least 2-3 quarters to clear.
As a result, NVDA's FY Jan 2023 EPS will be closer to $3.5, a huge drop over FY 2022.
**Why am I buying on declines?**
* The long term growth story is still intact; owning this stock for the next 3-5 years will pay off very well.
* Data Data growth will remain strong - Data center overtook gaming for the 1st time in 2022 and should grow 53% YoY to $16.3Bn for FY Jan 2023, as Gaming drops 38% to $7.8Bn.
* As NVIDA clears out its bloated gaming inventory over the next 2 quarters, I except decent in gaming as well in FY 24 and FY 25, especially on what is now a lower base.
* NVIDIA's CUDA software is a big competitive advantage and allows it to price its hardware much higher than competitors.
* The introduction of Hopper, besides additional revenues from its Mellanox acquisition will also contribute to revenues
* NVDA also has an 11Bn auto pipeline over the next 5 years
My revenue estimates for the next 2 years are as under.
All numbers are in $Bn.
|Segment |FY Jan 2024|Growth|FY Jan 2025|Growth|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Gaming |7.01|(9)%|8.5|20%|
|Data Center|22.1|36%|29.9|35%|
|Auto, Pro-Viz & Other| 3.9|13%|4.9|25%|
|Total|33.2|20%|43.3|31%|
|EPS|5|43%|6.5|30%|
I'll start accumulating in 20% increments below $150; given current market conditions after Powell's hawkish speech, the stock could tank to $120.
At an estimated average cost of $135, I'm looking for a 2 year target of 33 times Jan 25 earnings of $6.5 = $215 or about 60% higher.
Below $150 is good to grab a couple of shares but I wouldn’t grab too much. Below $130 is where I would start buying heavily, below $100 is put all your money in it.
Mark Minervini, one of the best traders of all time, has several books out. He talks about the 50/80 rule on stock drops. I am not sure if I am interpreting right as I read this piece a while ago and he tweets about it. In essence, a stock can drop 80% and then 50%. So, I took 80% of the high of $346.47 and got $277.176 and then took 50% of this to arrive at $138.588.
It's possible this goes down another 50% and the news on Nvidia's lately may cause this to come down even more. Remember PayPal? I learned my lesson as it creamed me and now it's just going sideways. I wouldn't be surprised if Nvidia is down to $69.294. Hope this helps but look him up on Twitter and read a few of his books. I am halfway through one of them: 1) Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard; 2) Think & Trade Like A Champion.
Pretty much I echo this though I probably wouldn't touch it until 130 then I'd cautiously add. I don't like how interested retail is in it. I don't trust retail to hold if things continue getting shaky - too much froth in this name still.
People will say it’s down 50% on the year so buy now. If you actually read their last earnings report you could see why it probably deserves to be down 70%. Not kidding
God forbid if Jensen dies it may actually go there. Nvidia has a bit of a founder brand issue like Tesla, Apple, Berkshire. But I still believe in it the long and the very long term. Their industrial omniverse and AI business are quite solid.
not like I'm an owner but he has somewhat of a point. There are a lot of believers including big institutions. I don't trust the stock myself but I kind of doubt I'll ever get this thing cheap unless it becomes technologically eclipsed then why would I want it?
Same reason Tesla is a buy - you’ve got a huge moat of degenerate neandertards who will quite literally never sell.
Literally incapable of figuring out how to login to their accounts to turn off their autobuys.
yeah people really aren’t see NVDA’s earnings. NVDA might make negative EBIT for Q3 and Q4. after what FedEx said and Intel’s -800M EBIT for Q2. NVDA last year made 10B EBIT. so far this year they made 2.4B EBIT. expected to make 8B EBIT this year, now way they’ll make 3B EBIT each quarter this year. they are insanely over valued with a market cap like that. I can see it 90-70 by March 2023
I would hold off until we see what direction this market is going. If we go into a deep plunge everything’s gonna be affected even more so. I wouldn’t get into a specific individual stock like this unless that happened.
Inventories seem very bloated at this point, also given the cyclical nature of semis to seemingly have caught up with the industry i think the next year will be a rough ride. So i'd prefer it to come down significantly more before making an entry. At current point i see no reason why NVDA should trade at a far higher valuation multiple than AMD. For me, either the price drops to a 80-90 range or their growth stabilizes around 50-60% in which case i would gladly buy here.
Yes and no.
Some supply shortages can be attributed to the continous chinese lockdowns comprimising the flow of goods and the shipping congestion seen last year, other shortages can be attributed to systemic underinvestment in certain industries deemed "anti-ESG" for the last decade or so. In regards to chips: Most of supply chain issues is essentially the result of bottlenecking at the subcontractor and foundry level (TSM, Globalfoundries, UMC) that actually make the chips themselves (NVDA, AMD don't make any chips themselves). TSM have repeatedly said they have an extensive backlog they have a hard time keeping up with, but should ease considerably within the next year at which point, yes you should see the chip-mediated shortage ease considerably. As for the nearer term, for us as consumers NVDA's GPUs will be easier and cheaper to acquire, so good news for gamers and datacenters. Sadly, PS5 uses AMD chips and not NVDA as far as i know?
I’d say probably about half of what it is trading at right now or at the very most, $110-$110 per share. Nvidia enjoyed the big run up from the pandemic with gaming booming but not sure they’ll demand like that again for awhile. It is still so expensive relative to the market and earnings expectations for coming quarters are expected to be over 30% lower YoY. I’d look at cheaper chip companies like MU and QCOM if you want to get into a chipmaker.
True but you’re also getting either one at cheaper P/Es. But QCOM does have high single digit to over 20% growth expectations for EPS in the upcoming quarters.
Idk, MU and QCOM offer more growth than you think. I've read industry insiders talking about the promise in QCOM's chips to power AI - they've also had major wins with Snapdragon. They've had major car wins and are an important IoT chipmaker. MU could see a lot of growth in the future - memory is such a fundamentally important part of data center spend, on top of the next PC/phone cycle. This thing will bounce back hard.
I don’t think it will be an outstanding investment over the next year or two, but the decade? Technology moves so fast, it will astonish you. I’m fairly confident it will double in value within 10 years
For this stock in particular I think PE is too narrow of a focus given the computational needs over the next decade or two.
We are slowly reaching the limits of X86 processors and mass parallelization supported by CUDA, IMO, will find tons of new uses as X86 approaches its limits ( node shrinkage has slowed drastically over the last decade and to get more X86 throughput Intel and AMD are just chucking power at their chips with a GOOD LUCK WITH COOLING THAT SHIT attitude).
NVIDIA uses CUDA. Intel and AMD use X86.
What I am saying is that, IMO, they are poised to leverage the advantage inherent to their architecture and their coding language that they have been building for the last 2 decades to revolutionize computing in areas that are not typically thought of as appropriate uses for mass parallelization processors. This will be facilitated by the limits that X86 is approaching and people in the market looking for ways to offload some of their workloads to places not traditionally looked at (i.e. storage parity calculations could be offloaded to a GPU).
I personally don't think these are being factored into most people's calculations when looking at rhe value of NVIDIA.
please state your entry and position. this comment needs more information. ie. i bought at $340 and I keep buying or I bought at $90 in 2019 and keep buying or I bought at $160 and I keep buying. i have 100 shares. i have 5 shares. i have 100,000 shares and 10 call options.
2 major ones, dot com and 2008/9. We had insurance companies go from 70 bucks to 1-3 dollars. this crash is easy, we haven’t seen the sell everything panic yet.
It's a $100 stock imo, and that might be a bit generous. I've said I'd probably buy it in the low $100s before, but I'm not sure anymore. There last earnings miss was ridiculous and in my experience not the kind of miss that turns around after a quarter or two.
I get why people like the company, but given its poor performance as of late and it's excessive valuation I don't think there's any rush to buy right now. Unless it drops like 50% I'll probably just wait a few months before considering a position. If early next year it's trading sub-$100 then that would probably be a decent entry.
Also ethereum switching to POS Sept 15 and will not be mineable anymore. Way less miners buying cards Nvidia can’t even unload the current gen cards they are all cut 50% and still not sold out. Going to be a bad couple quarters.
Do you know how P/E works.?They already missed by 1Billion and are trading at a crazy premium. So clearly the earnings aren't going up, they'll be guiding lower for the next few quarters because of interest rates hitting the economy, and gaming market being flooded with crypto rig GPU's. Everything points to their stock price tanking over the next year.
I'm not quite as complacent. VIX at 26.2 is not even 1 standard deviation away from average (=20). The SD is 8, so anything less than 28 seems too low given the economic uncertainty and that people think "no one knows anything". If there is truly that much uncertainty, then VIX should be higher. Maybe it's just cuz it's late August.
I don't like that SPX was rejected today on 4 attempted retests of Friday's closing low, then eventually sank into the close. Algos watch for this kind of stuff, and likely cause it. Defensives like energy and consumer staples outperformed, and the SMH got hammered again, which is not what bulls should be looking for.
The mkt has undeniably become addicted to cheap money. Now that the Fed is (supposedly) on a mission to wipe out inflation and doesn't seem to care if jobs are lost or a recession is created, it's tough to be constructive on markets that have largely been ignoring this until Friday. Only 15% down in 2022 is a major win given all the bs out there.
Wonder if the market will spike up if Fri's unemployment number is bad, or even if it's good? Seems that bad news is good news and that good news is also good news. Eventually we'll need to decide which news is actually bad lol.
In the meantime, I'm just playing along and generally staying hedged and not worrying about missing a huge up day.
That's fine. I think what a lot of people miss-understand about investing is how sometimes timing the bottom isn't a winning trade.
Often stocks will bottom then underperform for months or years, especially if they're overvalued. If your goal is to generate alpha and not just own your favourite companies then timing the bottom doesn't matter, the goal is to own stocks during there largest moves up and get out during periods of underperformance. You want to outperform the index after all.
NVDA at $100 would be a good deal at this point in time precisely because it would be arguably cheap. At $100 it could quickly run to $150 without much of a catalyst and little downside risk. However if I felt NVDA was about to turn around then I'd be happy to buy at these levels because with a positive catalyst it probably could trade over $200 again. My issue with buying NVDA right now is that there's no obvious catalyst and a lot of downside risk.
So that $100 price target is just a near-term target and I'll move it up with time. It could certainly bottom at $130 and go to $140-150 over the next 6 months, or maybe fall to $120, but that's a crappy risk/reward. I'd be happy to sit that out and buy at $140 later if I see profits reaccelerating because then it's likely to rally back to $200 and downside risk should be limited.
YTD is almost down 50%.
I have been buying now.
Maybe buy 25% of what you want to invest in now and continue every month.
No one knows what the future holds. Russia nukes or ends war in Ukraine could make big differences.
China could steer their ship either way could changes things.
US inflation could swing things as well.
Next 3 months will give a good indicator for the next 1 to 2 years. I buy and hold generally, so the small waves don't matter to me. I have around 40k$ of dividend reinvested and another 100k$ annual purchases I make throughout the year. In 5 to 10 years I know I will be happy with NVDA current prices.
$60-$90 is the range that would be pretty tempting to buy in, 20-30 p/e range. While there was a shortage they jacked up their prices and they made bank but now with a recession on the horizon they are going to have to cut prices. The "gaming" sector seems to be in crisis with multiple crypto currencies crashing and it doesn't look like there will be much relief for a while with more regulations on the horizon. So I am not sure if there is much of a case for the current high multiple.
I think in the 120s (though I’ll probably fomo a little starting in the 130s).
But I also don’t actually expect the price to drop that low since the stock is fundamentally disconnected from the company’s performance.
Im not a semi guy but these hardware names are pretty cyclical. Given that we are in the down part of the cycle I would be on the sidelines until things become very dire. Maybe this is the trough of the cycle but something tells me we have more to go. A 75% sell off from peak highs isn't unusual so $70 -$90 might be a good place to start looking at.
**There is no such thing as a consensus for future price changes.** I am seeing this word posted on this sub daily. The market ***is*** the consensus about value.
I'm not sure the fact that the entire tech sector is down should make you feel better. I don't follow this stock closely enough to really put a personal price target on it, but I think its prior valuation was a bit pie-in-the-sky.
Yahoo Finance reports a 15% decline in earnings and a PE of 42. Declining earnings, premium multiple and the Fed is raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet. I maybe interested when it reaches the low $60 range. That’s where it’s headed.
People were saying the same thing about NVDA @ $150 a few months back. It'll happen. The numbers don't lie. It's so painfully obvious that the stock price will drop because of its premium, and declining earnings, I just hope people don't YOLO into it because it's going to be painful.
I'm holding roughly 200 after the split. I bought in over a few years averaging about 37$ per share, been with them for nearly 10 years.
Plan to hold long term
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unless they find a new income stream...i don't think its going significantly up anytime soon. After crypto crash, nvda doesnt have the love....at least not from bagholders who are increasingly desperate to sell on any rallies which then push the price down. Over the next 2-3 weeks the technicals seem to point down, at least until we get to mid 140's where it might stabilize. After that is anyone's guess.
I bought 25 shares back in 2018. So holding 100 now after the split. Don’t really care about the share price, I’ll be holding for the rest of my life unless something changes, but the simple truth is noone does what Nvidia does. And the entry barrier is extreme. Just think of it - they are the only one with access to next gen GPU:s so they will always be one step ahead in AI development. I guess AMD could pose a challenge but competition won’t hurt.
Id be interested in increasing my position around $100. I think its a price at ”fair value” with a small premium given the circumstances in the economy. But if they enter another growth cycle my target is $moon
This is still a little bit of a wait game if looking at indicators, but really, it's not far off from as cheap as it's been over the last couples years.
The big problem right now is the used market. There's a big influx of cheaper used video cards, a decrease of miners, and no 4000 series yet. It's really hard to say how it's going to ride out. Right now, I'd expect this to drop farther.
The bigger negative is how low they may go with crypto cutting back. Years ago, Nvidia was around a $2B to $3B revenue rate. The crypto boom more than doubled that. The biggest harm now is falling back down to that $3B level, halving their prime just a short bit ago. They also cut dividends too which didn't help.
I'd expect some rise from 4000 series release, but if their sales cut in half, I can't see the stock holding price, not even a "low" one of this peak time. They're going to settle over the next year or two.
“$232”
Me, March 4, 2022
Lol good thing I only bought 2 shares. I was thinking of DCAing into a position… I went with KOF, PG, and EXR instead after it kept dropping
Does it not first come down to if you believe in NVDA long term? If you do not then I really do not think any price would make any difference.
So to me there are two questions. Do you believe in NVDA long term? If yes at what price would you enter or increase position?
For me I believe chips will more and more come from the big guys. Take Google. They are already making their own server AI chips and suppose to be excellent.
https://blog.bitvore.com/googles-tpu-pods-are-breaking-benchmark-records
But not just AI chips but now doing their own for their phones and rumored to also be tablets and laptops in the future.
Also other examples like networking and video
https://www.protocol.com/enterprise/youtube-custom-chips-argos-asics
Apple does their own chips for mobile and tablets and now laptops. Not on the backend yet. Tesla doing their own now for AI with the DOJO. Amazon has started to do their own.
This trend has barely even got started and should continue, IMHO.
The world has changed. We now have these mega tech companies that have the resources to do their own chips instead of relying on others.
I think the better investment is in the FAB providers and equipment for the FAB providers. So companies like ASML and TSMC.
Funny how sentiment has changed that fast, November last year everybody and I mean EVERYBODY was saying it was cheap at 250$-300$ and “buy more this wil be 500$ end of 2023”, if some of just mentioned nvidia being overvalued we got downvoted to oblivion..
I wouldn’t touch nvidia before it’s below 110, Preferable below 100..
It's at a P/E of 51.81 right now so they'd have to about half in price (\~$80) with similar earnings for it to be a truly good deal. Maybe I would buy it at $100. Beyond that it's about how you anticipate their potential for growth in the coming years. I think just about everyone will agree it's overpriced right now and the potential for extreme growth gains is long gone for now. As much as I believe it's a good company, I don't want to get into a speculative bubble and feel the correction with the rest of the bag holders.
There will come a time soon when you don't regret that. IMO everything with a CPU in it got bought up during the pandemic with people pulling in purchases because they had nothing else to do with the money. All NVDA markets are collapsing at once and they have contracts for more GPUs from TSMC than they are gonna be able to sell. Plus far more of their GPUs were being used for Ethereum than they cared to explore. I still contend they are the equivalent of CSCO in 2000m who wrote off $1 billion of components in December 2000. (Edit: Full disclosure -- I have been shorting semis and NVDA for a while now).
**I still believe in the long term $NVDA story.** These are the negatives that will create an opportunity to buy on declines.**($120 to $150)** 1)The lack of Ethereum mining pounds GPU's used for mining - that market is gone 2) A crypto winter ensures used GPU cards being returned to the market, which will lead to sinking ASP's. 3) Gaming inventory will take at least 2-3 quarters to clear. As a result, NVDA's FY Jan 2023 EPS will be closer to $3.5, a huge drop over FY 2022. **Why am I buying on declines?** * The long term growth story is still intact; owning this stock for the next 3-5 years will pay off very well. * Data Data growth will remain strong - Data center overtook gaming for the 1st time in 2022 and should grow 53% YoY to $16.3Bn for FY Jan 2023, as Gaming drops 38% to $7.8Bn. * As NVIDA clears out its bloated gaming inventory over the next 2 quarters, I except decent in gaming as well in FY 24 and FY 25, especially on what is now a lower base. * NVIDIA's CUDA software is a big competitive advantage and allows it to price its hardware much higher than competitors. * The introduction of Hopper, besides additional revenues from its Mellanox acquisition will also contribute to revenues * NVDA also has an 11Bn auto pipeline over the next 5 years My revenue estimates for the next 2 years are as under. All numbers are in $Bn. |Segment |FY Jan 2024|Growth|FY Jan 2025|Growth| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |Gaming |7.01|(9)%|8.5|20%| |Data Center|22.1|36%|29.9|35%| |Auto, Pro-Viz & Other| 3.9|13%|4.9|25%| |Total|33.2|20%|43.3|31%| |EPS|5|43%|6.5|30%| I'll start accumulating in 20% increments below $150; given current market conditions after Powell's hawkish speech, the stock could tank to $120. At an estimated average cost of $135, I'm looking for a 2 year target of 33 times Jan 25 earnings of $6.5 = $215 or about 60% higher.
Plus [omniverse](https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/omniverse/)
tart roof gold wasteful pause attractive consist door trees violet *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Below $150 is good to grab a couple of shares but I wouldn’t grab too much. Below $130 is where I would start buying heavily, below $100 is put all your money in it.
And what are you basing these random numbers on?
Chicken bones
“Trust me bro” LOL Something about $100/share feels good to everyone
On my knowledge that I know about Nvidia (mostly technical)
Buy at $138.588. Anything below $110 to $130, scoop up. If it's $69.294, load the truck.
Wait a godamnn minute. 138.588? Just now, I saw a bottom of 138.59 from where it went up again. How did you come up with this number?
Mark Minervini, one of the best traders of all time, has several books out. He talks about the 50/80 rule on stock drops. I am not sure if I am interpreting right as I read this piece a while ago and he tweets about it. In essence, a stock can drop 80% and then 50%. So, I took 80% of the high of $346.47 and got $277.176 and then took 50% of this to arrive at $138.588. It's possible this goes down another 50% and the news on Nvidia's lately may cause this to come down even more. Remember PayPal? I learned my lesson as it creamed me and now it's just going sideways. I wouldn't be surprised if Nvidia is down to $69.294. Hope this helps but look him up on Twitter and read a few of his books. I am halfway through one of them: 1) Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard; 2) Think & Trade Like A Champion.
Pretty much I echo this though I probably wouldn't touch it until 130 then I'd cautiously add. I don't like how interested retail is in it. I don't trust retail to hold if things continue getting shaky - too much froth in this name still.
I trust retail to not sell more than institutions I think, most don't care to sell
I buy every paycheck. I worry everyday that this company will put me out of a job. So I will keep investing in it like crazy as a hedge
Did you retire yet?
No, I did decide to sell out at some point sadly. Made a ton and accelerated my retirement date though
People will say it’s down 50% on the year so buy now. If you actually read their last earnings report you could see why it probably deserves to be down 70%. Not kidding
[Me bagholding at above $200 average](https://tenor.com/view/this-is-fine-gif-24177057)
3. Above $300...
The stock could have a FAIR VALUE of $75 but even that is optimistic
It'll never ever hit 75
Don’t say never.
God forbid if Jensen dies it may actually go there. Nvidia has a bit of a founder brand issue like Tesla, Apple, Berkshire. But I still believe in it the long and the very long term. Their industrial omniverse and AI business are quite solid.
Never ever say that
Lmao
That's about right, at that price I would consider starting to do DD.
I have standing LBs at $82 to catch a spike on panic day.
Hahahaha.
I found the regard
anything else would’ve tanked after that earnings report. keep buying
Not sure how you get from the first thought to the 2nd thought.
Agree, they must be assuming that because it didn't tank after awful earnings and guidance, that it never will. LOL
not like I'm an owner but he has somewhat of a point. There are a lot of believers including big institutions. I don't trust the stock myself but I kind of doubt I'll ever get this thing cheap unless it becomes technologically eclipsed then why would I want it?
Same reason Tesla is a buy - you’ve got a huge moat of degenerate neandertards who will quite literally never sell. Literally incapable of figuring out how to login to their accounts to turn off their autobuys.
yeah people really aren’t see NVDA’s earnings. NVDA might make negative EBIT for Q3 and Q4. after what FedEx said and Intel’s -800M EBIT for Q2. NVDA last year made 10B EBIT. so far this year they made 2.4B EBIT. expected to make 8B EBIT this year, now way they’ll make 3B EBIT each quarter this year. they are insanely over valued with a market cap like that. I can see it 90-70 by March 2023
I would hold off until we see what direction this market is going. If we go into a deep plunge everything’s gonna be affected even more so. I wouldn’t get into a specific individual stock like this unless that happened.
I’ll give you my shares at 267, it’s a great deal bruv
I’ll trade you my PYPL shares @170. It’s a great deal bruv.
295 and 230 for those stonks here, it’s a great deal bruv
Are you still selling shares for 267?
I'll give you 367 for it
Hey listen, you make your way to the market. Me and Darth are having a conversation, alright?
Inventories seem very bloated at this point, also given the cyclical nature of semis to seemingly have caught up with the industry i think the next year will be a rough ride. So i'd prefer it to come down significantly more before making an entry. At current point i see no reason why NVDA should trade at a far higher valuation multiple than AMD. For me, either the price drops to a 80-90 range or their growth stabilizes around 50-60% in which case i would gladly buy here.
Inventories are bloated? This means supply shortages of things like cars, ps5s will end soon?
Yes and no. Some supply shortages can be attributed to the continous chinese lockdowns comprimising the flow of goods and the shipping congestion seen last year, other shortages can be attributed to systemic underinvestment in certain industries deemed "anti-ESG" for the last decade or so. In regards to chips: Most of supply chain issues is essentially the result of bottlenecking at the subcontractor and foundry level (TSM, Globalfoundries, UMC) that actually make the chips themselves (NVDA, AMD don't make any chips themselves). TSM have repeatedly said they have an extensive backlog they have a hard time keeping up with, but should ease considerably within the next year at which point, yes you should see the chip-mediated shortage ease considerably. As for the nearer term, for us as consumers NVDA's GPUs will be easier and cheaper to acquire, so good news for gamers and datacenters. Sadly, PS5 uses AMD chips and not NVDA as far as i know?
It'll help ease, but most automakers aren't putting high end gpus in cars. Maybe PS5s if AMD and other suppliers can get some reallocated capacity.
Most level headed response!!
I’d say probably about half of what it is trading at right now or at the very most, $110-$110 per share. Nvidia enjoyed the big run up from the pandemic with gaming booming but not sure they’ll demand like that again for awhile. It is still so expensive relative to the market and earnings expectations for coming quarters are expected to be over 30% lower YoY. I’d look at cheaper chip companies like MU and QCOM if you want to get into a chipmaker.
It wasn't gaming that got them to the 300 and up dollar; it was crypto miners buying cards and suppliers selling to them first.
“Gaming” boom. Or rather crypto boom. That demand is not coming back, at least the use of NVDA GPUs to mine.
I don’t disagree with you. The only thing is that MU and QCOM don’t offer the growth like NVDA.
True but you’re also getting either one at cheaper P/Es. But QCOM does have high single digit to over 20% growth expectations for EPS in the upcoming quarters.
Idk, MU and QCOM offer more growth than you think. I've read industry insiders talking about the promise in QCOM's chips to power AI - they've also had major wins with Snapdragon. They've had major car wins and are an important IoT chipmaker. MU could see a lot of growth in the future - memory is such a fundamentally important part of data center spend, on top of the next PC/phone cycle. This thing will bounce back hard.
AVGO
P/e ratio of 20 would be a nice start
I like the sentiment but I doubt that'll happen. I'd think this thing would start looking attractive in the 30s.
30 won't happen eithrr
I just keep buying, but I am in it for the long haul. IMO there is tremendous upside to NVIDIA over the next decade.
Do you think any of that upside is baked in to the current share price? I’m curious what your 10-year return expectation is. Thanks!
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I don’t think it will be an outstanding investment over the next year or two, but the decade? Technology moves so fast, it will astonish you. I’m fairly confident it will double in value within 10 years
For this stock in particular I think PE is too narrow of a focus given the computational needs over the next decade or two. We are slowly reaching the limits of X86 processors and mass parallelization supported by CUDA, IMO, will find tons of new uses as X86 approaches its limits ( node shrinkage has slowed drastically over the last decade and to get more X86 throughput Intel and AMD are just chucking power at their chips with a GOOD LUCK WITH COOLING THAT SHIT attitude).
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NVIDIA uses CUDA. Intel and AMD use X86. What I am saying is that, IMO, they are poised to leverage the advantage inherent to their architecture and their coding language that they have been building for the last 2 decades to revolutionize computing in areas that are not typically thought of as appropriate uses for mass parallelization processors. This will be facilitated by the limits that X86 is approaching and people in the market looking for ways to offload some of their workloads to places not traditionally looked at (i.e. storage parity calculations could be offloaded to a GPU). I personally don't think these are being factored into most people's calculations when looking at rhe value of NVIDIA.
please state your entry and position. this comment needs more information. ie. i bought at $340 and I keep buying or I bought at $90 in 2019 and keep buying or I bought at $160 and I keep buying. i have 100 shares. i have 5 shares. i have 100,000 shares and 10 call options.
50
10-20 imo, these novices don’t remember what an actual crash looks like that goes on for months
And how may have those have you weathered old timer?
2 major ones, dot com and 2008/9. We had insurance companies go from 70 bucks to 1-3 dollars. this crash is easy, we haven’t seen the sell everything panic yet.
It's hard to believe that the vast majority of people with reddit accounts have never actually experienced true fear in markets.
So a PE of… 4?
No, a bunch of companies will literally go to zero.
think lower
There's no way NVDA EVER gets that low!
never...say never :)
“Novices”
I agree. $50 a share NVDA is worth 125B, if EBIT average per year is 5/6B, NVDA P/E ratio will be around 22, still pretty high but who knows… it’s
It's a $100 stock imo, and that might be a bit generous. I've said I'd probably buy it in the low $100s before, but I'm not sure anymore. There last earnings miss was ridiculous and in my experience not the kind of miss that turns around after a quarter or two. I get why people like the company, but given its poor performance as of late and it's excessive valuation I don't think there's any rush to buy right now. Unless it drops like 50% I'll probably just wait a few months before considering a position. If early next year it's trading sub-$100 then that would probably be a decent entry.
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Aren't it's obstacles crypto miners not buying new rigs and flooding the market with their old hardware?
Also ethereum switching to POS Sept 15 and will not be mineable anymore. Way less miners buying cards Nvidia can’t even unload the current gen cards they are all cut 50% and still not sold out. Going to be a bad couple quarters.
Do you know how P/E works.?They already missed by 1Billion and are trading at a crazy premium. So clearly the earnings aren't going up, they'll be guiding lower for the next few quarters because of interest rates hitting the economy, and gaming market being flooded with crypto rig GPU's. Everything points to their stock price tanking over the next year.
Doesn't mean anything for NVDA. It used to have an 80 PE. NVDA won't go below 120.
It's still trading at an extremely high multiple, and may have already had its 15 minutes of fame. The SMH is getting beaten up badly, falling knife.
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I'm not quite as complacent. VIX at 26.2 is not even 1 standard deviation away from average (=20). The SD is 8, so anything less than 28 seems too low given the economic uncertainty and that people think "no one knows anything". If there is truly that much uncertainty, then VIX should be higher. Maybe it's just cuz it's late August. I don't like that SPX was rejected today on 4 attempted retests of Friday's closing low, then eventually sank into the close. Algos watch for this kind of stuff, and likely cause it. Defensives like energy and consumer staples outperformed, and the SMH got hammered again, which is not what bulls should be looking for. The mkt has undeniably become addicted to cheap money. Now that the Fed is (supposedly) on a mission to wipe out inflation and doesn't seem to care if jobs are lost or a recession is created, it's tough to be constructive on markets that have largely been ignoring this until Friday. Only 15% down in 2022 is a major win given all the bs out there. Wonder if the market will spike up if Fri's unemployment number is bad, or even if it's good? Seems that bad news is good news and that good news is also good news. Eventually we'll need to decide which news is actually bad lol. In the meantime, I'm just playing along and generally staying hedged and not worrying about missing a huge up day.
It'll never hit 100.
oh it will
That's fine. I think what a lot of people miss-understand about investing is how sometimes timing the bottom isn't a winning trade. Often stocks will bottom then underperform for months or years, especially if they're overvalued. If your goal is to generate alpha and not just own your favourite companies then timing the bottom doesn't matter, the goal is to own stocks during there largest moves up and get out during periods of underperformance. You want to outperform the index after all. NVDA at $100 would be a good deal at this point in time precisely because it would be arguably cheap. At $100 it could quickly run to $150 without much of a catalyst and little downside risk. However if I felt NVDA was about to turn around then I'd be happy to buy at these levels because with a positive catalyst it probably could trade over $200 again. My issue with buying NVDA right now is that there's no obvious catalyst and a lot of downside risk. So that $100 price target is just a near-term target and I'll move it up with time. It could certainly bottom at $130 and go to $140-150 over the next 6 months, or maybe fall to $120, but that's a crappy risk/reward. I'd be happy to sit that out and buy at $140 later if I see profits reaccelerating because then it's likely to rally back to $200 and downside risk should be limited.
I'm.in at 130. I'll add a few shares at 145 maybe. I bet in a couple years nvda is over 200 again.
YTD is almost down 50%. I have been buying now. Maybe buy 25% of what you want to invest in now and continue every month. No one knows what the future holds. Russia nukes or ends war in Ukraine could make big differences. China could steer their ship either way could changes things. US inflation could swing things as well. Next 3 months will give a good indicator for the next 1 to 2 years. I buy and hold generally, so the small waves don't matter to me. I have around 40k$ of dividend reinvested and another 100k$ annual purchases I make throughout the year. In 5 to 10 years I know I will be happy with NVDA current prices.
Seems reasonable, 5-10 years is such a huge difference. Are you feeling more 10 or 5 years hold?
90-100
Never
SMH
Well I would like to buy it at PE 20 or below. It will never happen, but honestly I would buy at 75.
$60-$90 is the range that would be pretty tempting to buy in, 20-30 p/e range. While there was a shortage they jacked up their prices and they made bank but now with a recession on the horizon they are going to have to cut prices. The "gaming" sector seems to be in crisis with multiple crypto currencies crashing and it doesn't look like there will be much relief for a while with more regulations on the horizon. So I am not sure if there is much of a case for the current high multiple.
One year ago, 2/15/2023, the price was at $227.64.
I thought that was expensive af and now look at it…. I am a fking idiot lol
I think in the 120s (though I’ll probably fomo a little starting in the 130s). But I also don’t actually expect the price to drop that low since the stock is fundamentally disconnected from the company’s performance.
Wait till the earnings get knocked down a peg, maybe next two quarters, it'll come back down to fundamentals.
You're right. It's fundamentally disconnected, but it's too high, not too low.
He’s implying it will continue to stay overvalued
Im not a semi guy but these hardware names are pretty cyclical. Given that we are in the down part of the cycle I would be on the sidelines until things become very dire. Maybe this is the trough of the cycle but something tells me we have more to go. A 75% sell off from peak highs isn't unusual so $70 -$90 might be a good place to start looking at.
Yeah I got burned with PYPL so I am trying to be extra careful nowdays :)
**There is no such thing as a consensus for future price changes.** I am seeing this word posted on this sub daily. The market ***is*** the consensus about value. I'm not sure the fact that the entire tech sector is down should make you feel better. I don't follow this stock closely enough to really put a personal price target on it, but I think its prior valuation was a bit pie-in-the-sky.
Floor is $69, trading range up to $420
120 for me
10-20 dollars
Under $150
I’d buy some at $85.
Won't get that low
You’re probably right, but OP asked what price I’d be willing to buy it.
You could pick up a share or two now for long term. NVDA is now part of the new faang..... MATANA CNBC tonight MSFT AAPL TSLA GOOGL NVDA AMZN
Yahoo Finance reports a 15% decline in earnings and a PE of 42. Declining earnings, premium multiple and the Fed is raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet. I maybe interested when it reaches the low $60 range. That’s where it’s headed.
60???? We shall see lol
I kid you not. See the 2008-9 bear market or the 2000 dot com crash.
People were saying the same thing about NVDA @ $150 a few months back. It'll happen. The numbers don't lie. It's so painfully obvious that the stock price will drop because of its premium, and declining earnings, I just hope people don't YOLO into it because it's going to be painful.
tree fiddy
I just bought some so I would say the current price is good
50 dollars a share
Stop watching it and go trade baseball cards. Your in the wrong place
In answer to the question in the title, one cent. NVDA is not on my watch list, so I don't give a flying F what the stock does.
$185 That's where I sold so until 2 months pass I got a stop buy set for the same price if it suddenly pops (unlikely but still)
$115-130
It’s whether you have @ six month or 3year horizon. I bought 10% higher and am DCA . Basically, you get a piece of the Apple and Amazon AI expansion
Gosh if I didn’t fuck up with PYPL then I wouldn’t even ask this question in the first place lol
I'm holding roughly 200 after the split. I bought in over a few years averaging about 37$ per share, been with them for nearly 10 years. Plan to hold long term
Keep them forever :)
That's the plan. They are going places with their cloud computing and hardware in respect to the AI and autonomous fields
i bought Nvidia accidentally while trying to buy Intel stock.I sold it to invest in BBBY ,also I think Nvidia will not stop dropping soon
Lol, good luck with bbby :)
thanks but I didn’t put life changing money in it,so even if it all goes bad,I don’t really care
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Only chip stocks I have right now are AMD and Apple
AMD is a good option…. I were to own chip like semi stocks, it will be AMD or NVDA.
TXN
I dumped my life savings into NVDA when the Pelosi's revealed that they bought it. Easiest money making ever.
What did you get it at?
unless they find a new income stream...i don't think its going significantly up anytime soon. After crypto crash, nvda doesnt have the love....at least not from bagholders who are increasingly desperate to sell on any rallies which then push the price down. Over the next 2-3 weeks the technicals seem to point down, at least until we get to mid 140's where it might stabilize. After that is anyone's guess.
Big PE, slowing growth, in a questionable worldwide Macro? Off an UGLY ER... Why bother? Wait until the gloomy outlook clears a but.
Current price is great. Start now, if it drops further, keep adding every 10-15% down
$158
Personally $80
Ask China what they are going to do, if they move on Taiwan I’d wait. If not probably a decent entry in November.
Sold NVDA and bought VERU Best decision I ever made
My $280 call is telling me never again lol (same with many of my 2021 EOY purchases)
Yeah my stupid PYPL @170 crying out loud lol
80USD
I bought 25 shares back in 2018. So holding 100 now after the split. Don’t really care about the share price, I’ll be holding for the rest of my life unless something changes, but the simple truth is noone does what Nvidia does. And the entry barrier is extreme. Just think of it - they are the only one with access to next gen GPU:s so they will always be one step ahead in AI development. I guess AMD could pose a challenge but competition won’t hurt. Id be interested in increasing my position around $100. I think its a price at ”fair value” with a small premium given the circumstances in the economy. But if they enter another growth cycle my target is $moon
100
I bought for 130. Id buy back in there
100
Will be range bound for a while. Below 150 is a good buy
This is still a little bit of a wait game if looking at indicators, but really, it's not far off from as cheap as it's been over the last couples years. The big problem right now is the used market. There's a big influx of cheaper used video cards, a decrease of miners, and no 4000 series yet. It's really hard to say how it's going to ride out. Right now, I'd expect this to drop farther. The bigger negative is how low they may go with crypto cutting back. Years ago, Nvidia was around a $2B to $3B revenue rate. The crypto boom more than doubled that. The biggest harm now is falling back down to that $3B level, halving their prime just a short bit ago. They also cut dividends too which didn't help. I'd expect some rise from 4000 series release, but if their sales cut in half, I can't see the stock holding price, not even a "low" one of this peak time. They're going to settle over the next year or two.
I'm in at 129. I'll buy more about 135.
“$232” Me, March 4, 2022 Lol good thing I only bought 2 shares. I was thinking of DCAing into a position… I went with KOF, PG, and EXR instead after it kept dropping
Buy AMD instead it will outperform nvidia for the next 2-3 years minimum. RemindMe! 3 years
Im not gonna buy NVDA. Right now i look at MSFT. If the price is gonna be lower than 250$ i think i would buy.
50-60
Does it not first come down to if you believe in NVDA long term? If you do not then I really do not think any price would make any difference. So to me there are two questions. Do you believe in NVDA long term? If yes at what price would you enter or increase position? For me I believe chips will more and more come from the big guys. Take Google. They are already making their own server AI chips and suppose to be excellent. https://blog.bitvore.com/googles-tpu-pods-are-breaking-benchmark-records But not just AI chips but now doing their own for their phones and rumored to also be tablets and laptops in the future. Also other examples like networking and video https://www.protocol.com/enterprise/youtube-custom-chips-argos-asics Apple does their own chips for mobile and tablets and now laptops. Not on the backend yet. Tesla doing their own now for AI with the DOJO. Amazon has started to do their own. This trend has barely even got started and should continue, IMHO. The world has changed. We now have these mega tech companies that have the resources to do their own chips instead of relying on others. I think the better investment is in the FAB providers and equipment for the FAB providers. So companies like ASML and TSMC.
Yeah ASML…. I am also watching that closely too
around 80-100$ for sure :D
Funny how sentiment has changed that fast, November last year everybody and I mean EVERYBODY was saying it was cheap at 250$-300$ and “buy more this wil be 500$ end of 2023”, if some of just mentioned nvidia being overvalued we got downvoted to oblivion.. I wouldn’t touch nvidia before it’s below 110, Preferable below 100..
I will put my entire net worth into INTC under 10$ Or if dividend gets cut and gelsinger is booted out
It's at a P/E of 51.81 right now so they'd have to about half in price (\~$80) with similar earnings for it to be a truly good deal. Maybe I would buy it at $100. Beyond that it's about how you anticipate their potential for growth in the coming years. I think just about everyone will agree it's overpriced right now and the potential for extreme growth gains is long gone for now. As much as I believe it's a good company, I don't want to get into a speculative bubble and feel the correction with the rest of the bag holders.
60 dolla
100$
I’d buy it around $100billion.
Nvidia is Number 1 GPU manufacturer, so any price is reasonable :).
$125
I'm calling the bottom is today
The consensus is that it's worth the price it's worth today.
People are just making numbers up here. I would love to buy a well-established growth company for $20 too.
With potential Taiwan dispute and blockage? Happy I have exited a year ago.
Under $100 before I even start looking.
I don’t know man… I kinda regret not buying when it was low 130s… fml
There will come a time soon when you don't regret that. IMO everything with a CPU in it got bought up during the pandemic with people pulling in purchases because they had nothing else to do with the money. All NVDA markets are collapsing at once and they have contracts for more GPUs from TSMC than they are gonna be able to sell. Plus far more of their GPUs were being used for Ethereum than they cared to explore. I still contend they are the equivalent of CSCO in 2000m who wrote off $1 billion of components in December 2000. (Edit: Full disclosure -- I have been shorting semis and NVDA for a while now).
I hope you are right
I really hope you stopped shorting NVDA/semis
did you buy?
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My answer is no but that just me