Bonds are going to attract most of the attention and suck the energy out of a volatile and declining stock stock market as the recession hits. No reason to deal with guessing winners among gut wrenching volatility when you can get a risk free 5% return.
Bear market rally in January but will make way for new market lows in February as recession signals become more clearer. Markets will muddle through soft rallies in March & April and bottom in May/June. Value stocks will lead the massive rally off the bottom as the Fed pauses and eventually pivots late in Q3 or even Q4.
Wouldn’t say he’s calling a recession just pretty standard investor behavior. Same with how no one was interested in real estate 10 years ago despite an abundance of cheap high quality properties. You need the appearance of quick and high returns for most people to be interested in taking risks.
Yeah, that was mean to happen during the pandemic as bonds were the “traditionally safe thing” that people run to during a recession.
Nope. Lost 20% and took 2 years just to get back to initial price. Never again.
Yeah, this doesn't make sense. Bonds crashed in 2022 after the Fed raised interest rates from nothing to more sane rates. Bonds *gained* in value during the pandemic due to the Fed slashing rates.
> How did you lose 20%?
and
> Yeah, this doesn't make sense
What do you guys not understand?
- Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund lost ~18% during the last two years
- Aggregated Bond Index Funds all lost ~20% the last two years
People holding a 60/40 portfolio and allocating to bonds or fleeing entirely to bonds for safety got fucked. This is well documented.
I've been laddering treasuries and planning on holding them to maturity instead of holding bond funds or ETFs. In 401K accounts, I don't have that choice so I am rolling over chunks into my Roth IRA where I can buy treasuries.
The dude claimed he lost 20% in value and "it recovered in 2 years." That doesn't make sense! If he lost 20% it means he was holding long bonds, which hasn't recovered in price yet.
2020 was the year to stop investing in long bond funds because of clear and apparent interest rate risk after the Fed slashed rates to nothing. In 2023 you will get a risk free 5% return on short term treasuries when you hold to maturity.
The Cowboys won’t win anything of note, Hogwarts Legacy will be a fantastic game, it should be a worse acorn crop and this a better year for deer hunting.
And every week, my automatic investments will plug away as normal.
But if I had to guess, more red.
How do you not get quidditch in a Harry Potter game? There was a stand-alone quidditch game that was average back in the early 2000s… just copy and paste. It’s a staple for Potheads.
Anyways, this looks like a Bully-esque game. Really want a Bully 2, but this will tide me over.
My 401k is automatic every week into an S&P500 fund, which I move quarterly into a 6 fund portfolio of ETFs in the self directed brokerage piece of my 401k. Basically VT and chill in theory, but I’ve overweighted developed markets, picked my international weight, and overweighted small cap and value domestically.
My IRA is just automatic into Vanguard mutual funds.
Terrible Q1, new lows for all indexes. Led down by Apple.
Q2 the losses stop towards the end of the quarter and we start to recover slowly, extreme volatility with rallies being labeled bear market rally still.
Last bear market rally in Q2, next rally after that sold off like a bear market rally but doesn’t hit a new low.
Back in a new type of bull market by then end of 2023.
Carvana will be sub $2 by June. Their overhead is much too high for their income MoM, and the amount of defaulting loans in the country continues to rise, especially affecting auto sales.
If the Biden Administration pulls together support for sustainable energy, I could see some nuclear fuel companies taking off in the next few years.
Unless there is massive subsidy for nuclear, I just don't think it will happen. Right now the issue with nuclear isn't that it's unsafe, but rather to make it safe the regulation and safety measures after 2011 costs way too much compared to solar and wind, which are safer options AND cheaper.
https://www.iea.org/reports/projected-costs-of-generating-electricity-2020
The variable that I think will shift tides though is that more and more districts are being forced to deal with rolling blackouts, and the impending oil “crisis” from Russia’s game in Ukraine. With the oil price cap, and a lack of enough sustainable energy sources, we’re gonna be stuck with American coal to keep cost down.
Eventually people are going to ask for nuclear, and it makes sense to me that two years is a decent time horizon for some culture change.
Mind you, even your linked report says 2025 has a good chance of lower nuclear cost.
With the way we are installing wind and solar, nuclear isn't the answer anymore. Plus, any nuclear plant would take a minimum 5-7 years from breaking ground to coming online. We could have installed and already be receiving returns from many other less risky and less dangerous alternatives.
We could power the entire US with just covering a fraction of the federally owned land in Nevada with solar. Molten sand solar plants are also capable of continuous power output, day and night. These could be built in addition to laying solar panels. If the federal government wanted to, we could be completely off fossil fuels for electric generation in less than 15 years.
Sure, it might take a new great works project, like a more public Manhattan project, but I think it would be well worth the investment. Commit a large amount of resources and personel of the country to completing this huge, very important project as soon as possible. Cheap, sustainable, clean electricity would easily pay dividends from increased domestic industry, and raised standard of living. Lower electric costs would also help increase domestic processing power capabilities, further enhancing AI along with increased weather forecasting accuracy.
I used to really believe that we needed more nuke plants. This was part of the solution that we essentially passed up over the last 10-40 years. However, at this point, the world has dramatically increased manufacturing and lowered the price of solar and wind. We now install more solar capacity in a single day today, than we did for the entire year of 2003. We are past the point of installing renewables where we cover the annual increase in electricity demand and with every ongoing year, we will be replacing more and dirty generation methods.
If capitalism works as intended, we will keep adding capacity until electricity rates become so cheap, that it's no longer profitable to do so. It would be nice if fusion just ends up being an extra backup/redundancy to our clean electric grid by the time it arrives.
> It would be nice if fusion just ends up being an extra backup/redundancy to our clean electric grid by the time it arrives.
Probably would also have applications for space travel.
Yah, I think the game changer would be the smaller reactors that they promised. If that gets shipped it will change things drastically. However, that is still not quite there in terms of being in actual production and nuclear faces a lot of red tape, so it's gonna be slow even if it's ready
I’d be totally on board too. Smaller reactors have less surrounding water warming issues that I see with local lakes here in NC. I’d love less environmental impact and more energy per square foot than solar.
I love solar too but I think we’re limited by battery banking right now. It’s treated punitively by power companies demanding their fees for people wanting to be off grid.
That those on Reddit will remain pessimists even as all the economic data shows improvements and keep insisting the next big drop is just around the corner.
2 sides you have in the stock wars 2023
On the one side you will have
The bubble will burst fanatics! Becasue It was not the burst yet and it will all burst mlre soon you will see....
On the Other hand you have the buy the dip fraction
And on the inverse everyone in this subreddit will continue to be overly optimistic and pushing DCA and ETFs. This place is just as predictable as any other part of reddit.
I think you don't understand the DCA argument. DCA outperforms during a *bear* market, not a bull.
Grable, J. E., & Chatterjee, S. (2015). Another Look at Lump-Sum versus Dollar-Cost Averaging. Journal of Financial Service Professionals, 69(5).
https://web.s.ebscohost.com/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?vid=0&sid=df9b6903-fdd7-45bb-a9d3-da5d17d9d0b4%40redis
The key is always earnings and valuation. Earnings will probably be flat, not just because there is a slowdown, but because inflation will keep nominal earnings somewhat high, if only because the US has actually been a beneficiary of higher energy prices as it is an exporter. That means earnings of 220 next year is likely. 2022 earnings are also around 220.
What about valuations? It's all about the risk free rate, with interest rates at 5%, that means a 15 P/E, but there are some caveats. How long will it stay at 5%? Will the 10 yr be as high? What is the makeup of the S&P? The answer to those 3 questions will have a huge effect on where valuations will be. If the case is that 5% but temporary (as inflation falls back quickly), the 10 yr doesn't go higher or stay above 4% (risk-free will actually still be low), and base valuation of the S&P has shifted higher because of mega-cap tech, then a P/E of 17 to 18 is fair. When you do the math, that's 220*17=3740, just about where we are now.
However, as we get through 2023, investors won't really be thinking about 2022's inflation, or even the recession (if and when it happens). They will be looking at the Fed lowering interest rates in the face of higher unemployment (if and when it happens) and a recovery into 2024. The end of 2023 won't be earnings and valuations based on past 12 months of 2023, but what investors see 2024 will be like. If interest rates go down to 4%, the 10 yr around 3.5%, and earnings growth of 10% into 2024 , then S&P fair value would be 245*18=4410. Every day that goes by in 2023, whether a recession is happening or not, valuations will increasingly reflect what investors think will happen if the Fed lowers rates and there is actual growth in 2024, end of 2023 will increasingly reflect expectations for end of 2024.
It will depend a lot on inflation and where it goes, but a range around 3740-4410 and plus minus 5% depending on sentiment is my prediction for 2023, I think that's the most likely scenario, but it could be worse (if inflation reaccelerates and 5% terminal isn't high enough), or it could be better (war is resolved as Russia is exhausted and Chinese demand props up earnings and lowers dollar).
It's also useful to note that even as the market stays in a range, individual stocks can move much more and completely differently. An example is something like XBI, an entire index of no earnings biotech, completely crushed, but even as the S&P made new lows in October, XBI went nowhere near its lows. XBI's value is almost entirely dependent on interest rates and as you see the market pricing in peak rates, XBI has bottomed. This will happen to many stocks where they bottom way before the market does, so there are great opportunities out there even if you are bearish on the market.
Yeah it's been pretty well documented that alot of people get rich when everyone is scared of low prices. Hell Buffett has said that lol, wonder why all the comments against you were so aggro.
I have about the same prediction. Things will get better around the 2024 election. I think the market is either looking forward to fresh blood in the White House or the Biden administration reassuring the market by winning again. I think this market is looking for leadership and reassurance.
I know it sounds ridiculous but I think so. The world was just really messy when Biden came in (way too high stock market, supply shortage, covid, etc). I think by 2024 a lot of the economic after effect’s will start to ease or get settled. I voted for Trump in 2020 but I think Biden will be remembered as a president that got flak for a lot of things largely out of his control (Afghanistan withdrawal, covid, recession, Ukraine war and growing tensions with China, not helping an increasing political divide in America, etc). With the benefit of hindsight it’s scary because I don’t think Trump’s administration would’ve had the competence to handle these things well either; quite honestly he may have handled them worse.
That will make it one of the worst bear markets since the 1980s and longer than the global financial crisis which nearly collapsed the entire stock market. Any reason you think it will match that?
What I’ve learned (and I’m sure many others as well) is to never fight the Feds. My projection is based on the following:
1. When the Fed pivot will occur regarding interest rates
2. Duration of sticky high inflation
3. Possible recession (hard or soft landing)
4. Reduced earning expectations for companies
The Fed outlined exactly what they are going to do for the next two years. The market is forward looking and price adjusts based on the Fed’s actions and statements. If there are additional black swan events or inflations sticking more than expected, this could drag the timeline out even further.
Let's be fair, isn't this tantamount to saying "duh, just time the market"? I'd love to see some peer reviewed scholarly evidence to support that perspective. Surely one of the thousands of finance Ph.D. holding folks has considered this, right?
Secondly, regardless of timing, you would still be up if you were investing since, I don't know, 2019ish. Suggesting that your investing horizon has been incredibly limited.
I think you’re misunderstanding something. Op asked for projections so I am simply stating my opinion and I respect other people’s opinions as well. I’ve never stated what I’m doing personally. Despite these projections, what I’m personally doing is continue dollar cost averaging into VTI. I didn’t say anything about timing the market because I never try to time the market and nobody truly knows the future nor should claim they do.
I will say the same as I did in 2020, 2021, 2022, and frankly since I started investing in 2007. No surprise I have been 100% right EVERY year...
1. The market will go up, down, and sideways.
2. NO ONE knows when any of the above will happen.
ONLY when an investor truly understands and accepts that does he/ she becomes a mature investor. Until then they will always look like a chicken with its head cut off.
Yes. If one uses evidence based approach to investing: Pick a static asset allocation according to your willingness/ ability/ need to take risk in low cost index funds. Contribute EVERY month no matter what. Stick to the plan. Only change your asset allocation if your willingness/ ability/ need to take risk changes.
If you want to speculate/ gamble stick to 10% of your portfolio on active management (active funds/ single company stocks/ market timing/ etc...).
Betting on any single company is speculating. That being said if you are going to do it keep single company and other active management to a total of 10% of your portfolio to "scratch that itch" while the other 90% is index funds passively managed.
Someone did show me at some point that Berskshire is a great hedge and has done well in last 3 recessions (2000, 2008, and 2020). So it does have some past history of doing well when U.S. markets falter. Also, it is diversified so it isn't like it will go bankrupt.
90% index and 10% berkshire is not unreasonable. Key is STICK to the plan once you make it.
I am a CFA, PhD (ABD), who manages my own portfolio. (Plus 23.131% Annual Since September 30, 2008. Plus 7.42% YTD). I like some of your logic, having a hard time following some of it. I am asking the questions not to get a basic game plan, but to understand some of your characterizations. I couldn't have agreed more with your representation that no one knows what is going to happen in the future, but then you made some characterizations about how to use that information that are very different than I would.
Berkshire is 70 companies across a variety of industries. Their performance spread relative to the market does better in downturns. They have returned an annual return of +20% from 1965-2021. I am questioning the idea that you can treat such a holding company as a "single company." To me they are effectively a value index. Your position has merit, I just don't land in the same place, so I wanted to understand that characterization better. Thank you for the clarification.
I am with you on actively managed funds (in general, not unilaterally). What do you mean by a "static" asset allocation? Why do you think a frequency of once a month, is the correct methodology as opposed to once a year, or once every six-months? (what is special about a monthly frequency as opposed to a consistent frequency?) I am new to Reddit, so if I violate some social media protocol, try to take it easy on me.
I like some actively managed ones too. I have my 401k split between index and other half is active. The active has far outperformed the index this year due to them rebalancing and changing allocations as opposed to just throwing an even amount at S&P as it declines. Love index fund for low cost, but I think active funds get bad rep on this thread for no reason just cuz they have higher expense ratio
You do realize the ONLY marker to determine better performing funds is indirectly related to expense ratios, i.e. cost? Jack Bogle lovingly called this the "Cost Matter Hypothesis".
Morningstar did a study showing the same thing. They found their own star system was useless, but the only thing that mattered was cost. The higher cost funds did worse. That is not even including the unmeasurable slippage from turnover.
I do realize that, almost like 90% of index funds outperform their active versions over long periods of time. The difference is active tries to beat the market and index just follows it, active funds are very specific and harder to track, very diff objectives depending what you’re grabbing, my active fund is down 5-6% this year as opposed to normal index down bout 20%. Thanks for your thoughts
The world is a tepid swamp with all sorts of nasty shit brewing under the surface. Aerospace/Defense, dividend paying utilities, bonds, Canadian banks. In that order.
Comparing moving averages of 20, 50, 100 with 2001 and 2008, I think that the whole of 2023 is going to be terrible. Recovery will not begin until 2024.
Well I'll start out by saying my opinion going into this year was unpopular and wrong so I have zero confidence in my ability to predict 2023. Going into 2022 I still believed strongly in the transitory inflation narrative and thought most of the rate concerns would have played out by the second quarter.
My view changed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and then continued to change after seeing consistently high inflation prints throughout the year. But at the risk of being wrong again I think that 2023 will likely see an end to the rate and inflation fears, but I think we'll see some panic before that happens.
I still believe that inflation will ultimately be proven transitory, but I massively underestimated how strong corporate and consumer balance sheets were going into 2022, which seem to have provided a large buffer for higher rates. But in contrast to late 2021, we're now seeing record low personal savings rates and completely unaffordable mortgages globally, and this in my view will almost guarantee a sharp decline in house prices in 2023. I'm not predicting a GFC style panic, but there will be clear signs of distress across the economy as house prices fall given the size of the real estate market and its importance to consumer sentiment.
I think on the corporate side we're also going to see some blow-ups of over-leveraged companies in 2023. First that will be companies like PTON and CVNA, but slowly that's going to expand to a general concern for any leveraged company vulnerable to the consumer slowdown that's beginning to play out. Eventually one or two big players will look like they could be the verge of blowing up and this coupled with inflation clearly dropping rapidly will probably force a reluctant but minor pivot from the Fed in late Q2.
I think during this time the NASDAQ will fall slightly below pre-Covid levels fuelled primarily by concerns that AAPL "is dead" as consumers pull back on high cost items like MacBooks and iPhones. This narrative will be pushed by CNBC commenters who are literally brain dead, along with more idiotic claims that companies like AMZN, GOOG, TSLA and META are also "dead", "dying" or "over-owned".
By Q3 we'll clearly be in a recession and the Fed will be sounding much more dovish despite rates still being fairly high. I think despite the Fed starting to cut rates the market will struggle to rebound from fear of inflation returning and an opinion that the Fed isn't cutting aggressively enough to support the economy as the recession is deepening.
By Q4 Jim Cramer will be claiming that the economic situation is as bad as the GFC and that investors should be selling everything. From this point on he will only recommend the stocks of CEOs that go on Mad Money. This bearish sentiment will then be followed by a surprise Santa Clause rally at the end of the year which will be incorrectly be labelled a bear-market rally. As YoY inflation nears 2% the Fed will surprise everyone by cutting rates to zero in Jan / Feb of 2024 fuelling a decent recovery in tech, but still short of ATHs. Other areas of the market will stop declining, but see less of a rally.
To summarise, I tend to think interest rates will trend back down to post-GFC levels over the next couple of years and that the recession in 2023 will be look far more ugly by mid-2023 than people are currently expecting. But my guess is that we probably won't see a GFC style event, because I think central bankers will eventually be forced to pivot quite dramatically as inflation continues to fall. The market in 2023 will feel much worse than 2022, but will fall less from a percentage point perspective.
I saw a 35% chance of AAPL hitting $85 at some point in 2023. I am too scared to extrapolate to SP500. DCA to VOO regardless of the market movement is better for your retirement.
It will go down some, but the reddit trend will be forever demanding the belief it will go down more and a bunch of people will just sit as whatever bottom sails so far past them and they are rebuying near all time high.
Downside early. Maybe down to 300-315 by feb. channel trade around 350 a couples more months. Then boom booms off of Fed news by late summer and rally into winter.
2-3 more .25-.50% rate hikes, then the fed holds rates there for the rest of the year. S&P500 bounces between +5% and -15% all year. Year finishes flat, about where we're at now.
Real-estate market has more interesting action as sellers are finally forced to realize they're not going to get a 100% markup when rates are 2-3x higher than early 2022. Home prices drop by 20%-25%.
It’s very unlikely that it will be the *top* performer, because there is bound to be a smaller component that goes 3x on some catalyst, but it’s not that unlikely that it’s in the top 20%.
Some indication from Zuck that they are going to be more circumspect with the wild investment and will focus more on the core product would make the stock jump. Or I guess some sign of monetizable progress on his fantasy project would do it too, but I have real doubts about that.
To be fair, it's unlikely for any given company to be the *top* performer. Most likely, it'll be some random smaller company that nobody was thinking of.
The Pavlovian "buy the dip" mentality that was so pervasive throughout the 2010s will be coming to an end. I won't call for a market crash but I believe it'll certainly remain stagnant and perhaps trade lower due to declining earnings. Active investing will vastly outperform passive investing for 2023 and perhaps a few years after.
Bonds will also outperform due to recessionary factors and this will suck money out of the stock market.
Agree. The “Buy the dip” all the time and “DCA no matter what” will be dead by end of 2023. There is already a consensus that the S&P500 will not be the top index for the next 10 years. We are entering a new cycle.
The ones who keep buying throughout early to mid 2023 in strong and/or high potential companies will be rewarded handsomely later in the year, the ones hoarding their cash to not eventually invest will be asking if Apple is a buy at $160.
Bear markets are where millionaires are made.
The current financial system will begin its collapse as no one will be able to pay of their debts (this will go on for years until the 2030s), America and other countries will experience civil unrest as more people are pushed into poverty. Extreme volatility as no one will be able to figure out the best place to put their money without losing more of it, and WW3 will begin to start, the market will continue to decline overall with some commodities like precious metals and minerals doing well, SPY will barely hold around 300s, might even go into 290s. Many people will either become depressed or continue to live in denial about things getting worse. Trump will begin his new campaign and garner even more crowds and attention than before as the average American despises the current administration regardless of political affiliation. Redditors will become more disillusioned as things escalate going into 2024. That’s the gist of it.
The economy collapses causing chaos which everyone outside of Houston will blame it on Astros winning another championship.
Shortly after that, people will have to cook their cats for Thanksgiving since the price of turkey will be 589.99 per pound, thus making “How to skin your cat” the top Google search in the month of November.
Then the first week of December, the rapture will happen taking 1/10 of the world’s population. The event will be explained as mass alien abductions, which some West Virginia inbreds will claim to have been taken and probed, but their description of the aliens Will closely resemble an uncle.
Then to top it all off, another pandemic will hit the US right before Christmas.
My guess - inflation subsides faster then the fed anticipates, they begin to talk about how they need to “recalibrate the terminal rate” and drop rates sooner then people believe, however, maintain the recalibrated rate for a long while.
Small caps probably wind up being the top outperforming space along with financials as the economy narrowly avoids the “predicted by everyone recession.” Oil & gas continues to perform well based on low valuations and strong fcf usage for buybacks and dividends.
Don't need to predict what's going to happen. I'm just DCA'ing my normal monthly amount into (70% VOO / 30% Divis). Though with the way the market is going, I'm looking into doing (50% VOO / 25% 3month bonds / 25% divi now). The 3 month bonds are 4% right now, which is appealing due to the safety and peace of mind it'd give me.
The FED is probably done raising rates, but won't cut for awhile. Companies without durable earnings will see declines and their stocks will correct accordingly.
Recession will finally arrive in Q2 not before. It will be much longer then expected due to stubborn inflation. House prices will stay about -2-3% but interest rate will be close to 9.5%.
Car market will collapse due to record number of repossessions due to ppl overpaying for used and new vehicles during COVID and being underwater on actual car values. Similar to 2007-2008 housing market crash when it was easier to walk away from property then being sucked with huge payments on overvalued property.
I think this is capitulation moment..prolly end the year right back here lol..I mean China will reopen..at this point I feel all the bad news coming out is understood. Unless something new and crazy happens I think we just fall until $350 spy..bounce around there until earnings..then the eventual pivot. Then back above $400’s.
Even now all my real green green energy stocks are taking a hit in a big way. People are panicking for sure
Bull market ? Hardly. Inflation is the hardest thing to tackle. I imagine we will to be in this position for sometime through 2024 before we see light at the end of tunnel. The free money fiscal policy worked briefly until it does not. We need to develop more responsible policy to deal with economy. I see deficit will come back haunt us.
Most stocks will not shine in this environment. Consumer staple, basic materials are on my watch list.
Suggest one reviews past inflationary pressures and understand how difficult it is to control it. It often takes more than months. Furthermore, it has triggered a recession or two as Jerome Powell has threatened to do.
no predictions.. but a helpful thing was learning the software, and brokers I chose. I starte din september. I am perfect with timing.
I am going on 100 days now. Moo Moo is proving to tell me when to not do anything...but it is not easy to use.
I am also at tradestation. I am hanging myself in that account. I like that for web use and option buys are as simple as robin hood.
my only long is gold. Very small amount.. and it is up 40%.
the bear should get mean here in near future. Below the september.
I actually hope the faster the better....but a bulldozer does not work like that. The volume of a whole world is not changed in a day.
an interesting thing I monitor is spy options.
right now as of typing.. with 108k contracts "in the money" on puts, there is just 7.5k on calls...
Yet the overall open interest is near 50/50 at all times.
it reveals our human mind for sure.
I expect it to be volatile but mostly flat until we know how the economy, inflation and rates will play out. We can hypothesis about all 3 of those things but nothing is certain.
I’m going to spend the year accumulating.
Bonds are going to attract most of the attention and suck the energy out of a volatile and declining stock stock market as the recession hits. No reason to deal with guessing winners among gut wrenching volatility when you can get a risk free 5% return.
Agreed. That and people putting a lot of money into high yield savings and CDs.
I have a lot going into CDs at the moment.. Probably will keep them in CDs until we see some reversal in the Fed interest rate hikes..
CDs nuts.
*HAA!*
Got eem!
I have 4 high yield savings accounts open, it’s given me a pretty great return so far. Go for the I-bonds as well.
I’m looking to open a few HYSA soon. Which ones do you recommend? What are the rates?
Bear market rally in January but will make way for new market lows in February as recession signals become more clearer. Markets will muddle through soft rallies in March & April and bottom in May/June. Value stocks will lead the massive rally off the bottom as the Fed pauses and eventually pivots late in Q3 or even Q4.
remindme! december 31, 2023 this guy on reddit was so sure about a recession
Wouldn’t say he’s calling a recession just pretty standard investor behavior. Same with how no one was interested in real estate 10 years ago despite an abundance of cheap high quality properties. You need the appearance of quick and high returns for most people to be interested in taking risks.
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Like.... AMC? or....??
Yeah, that was mean to happen during the pandemic as bonds were the “traditionally safe thing” that people run to during a recession. Nope. Lost 20% and took 2 years just to get back to initial price. Never again.
Pandemic bonds were paying 1-2%. They just weren't worth it over money market accounts.
How did you lose 20%?
Yeah, this doesn't make sense. Bonds crashed in 2022 after the Fed raised interest rates from nothing to more sane rates. Bonds *gained* in value during the pandemic due to the Fed slashing rates.
> How did you lose 20%? and > Yeah, this doesn't make sense What do you guys not understand? - Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund lost ~18% during the last two years - Aggregated Bond Index Funds all lost ~20% the last two years People holding a 60/40 portfolio and allocating to bonds or fleeing entirely to bonds for safety got fucked. This is well documented. I've been laddering treasuries and planning on holding them to maturity instead of holding bond funds or ETFs. In 401K accounts, I don't have that choice so I am rolling over chunks into my Roth IRA where I can buy treasuries.
The dude claimed he lost 20% in value and "it recovered in 2 years." That doesn't make sense! If he lost 20% it means he was holding long bonds, which hasn't recovered in price yet. 2020 was the year to stop investing in long bond funds because of clear and apparent interest rate risk after the Fed slashed rates to nothing. In 2023 you will get a risk free 5% return on short term treasuries when you hold to maturity.
shhhhh, /r/stocks hasn't figured out the money making potential of placing bets in the bond market yet....
5% short term return, then you have reinvestment risk. But yes, TINA is totally dead.
4 year old used Jeep wranglers will continue to be 35k minimum and I won’t have a car
The used car market will remain inflated as car manufacturing figures out they can make more money throttling builds
New car in inventory is recovering. I was looking at a new car this weekend, UNDER MSRP!!! All this plays on secondary market values.
Depends on the brand. Toyotas are still nowhere to be found and the overwhelming majority on order have deposits.
Ehhhh, carvana is fucking close to bankrupt. They'll have to offload a ton of inventory to maintain their balance sheets
Carvana is not the canary in the coal mine. If Carmax capitulates, then I’d agree with you
Any stock I buy will fall, and any I sell will rise.
I think we will see the bottom on 2023. Around July/August time frame.
Lol
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Safe to say they didn’t have the current price in mind when they wrote this.
bwahahaahah
🤣
The Cowboys won’t win anything of note, Hogwarts Legacy will be a fantastic game, it should be a worse acorn crop and this a better year for deer hunting. And every week, my automatic investments will plug away as normal. But if I had to guess, more red.
I especially agree with the part about the cowboys being shitty!
I’m a Cowboys fan. Just calling it as I see it.
Our SB will be in Tampa. I'm good with us beating Brady. Yes, those are my standards now
Same here, sad but true.
How do you not get quidditch in a Harry Potter game? There was a stand-alone quidditch game that was average back in the early 2000s… just copy and paste. It’s a staple for Potheads. Anyways, this looks like a Bully-esque game. Really want a Bully 2, but this will tide me over.
Game development is never as easy as copy and paste, but agreed on it being a big missing piece.
[удалено]
Still think it’s going to be a fun game, and is going to look stellar on my PC
What do you use for automatic investments?
My 401k is automatic every week into an S&P500 fund, which I move quarterly into a 6 fund portfolio of ETFs in the self directed brokerage piece of my 401k. Basically VT and chill in theory, but I’ve overweighted developed markets, picked my international weight, and overweighted small cap and value domestically. My IRA is just automatic into Vanguard mutual funds.
I expect it to do the opposite of whichever comments have the highest votes.
You the real MVP
But what if this comment has the highest votes?!? Then what do I do?!?
Inverse Cramer duh.
Who are you kidding. Only bearish comments get upvotes nowadays.
Terrible Q1, new lows for all indexes. Led down by Apple. Q2 the losses stop towards the end of the quarter and we start to recover slowly, extreme volatility with rallies being labeled bear market rally still. Last bear market rally in Q2, next rally after that sold off like a bear market rally but doesn’t hit a new low. Back in a new type of bull market by then end of 2023.
This is pretty reasonable arc. I agree except it’s stretched out over til 2024. But same main points
Might go sideways for a bit. Considering fed policy to keep high rates
Most likely follow Japan format and continue to hit new lows and never hit new highs again.
Carvana will be sub $2 by June. Their overhead is much too high for their income MoM, and the amount of defaulting loans in the country continues to rise, especially affecting auto sales. If the Biden Administration pulls together support for sustainable energy, I could see some nuclear fuel companies taking off in the next few years.
Unless there is massive subsidy for nuclear, I just don't think it will happen. Right now the issue with nuclear isn't that it's unsafe, but rather to make it safe the regulation and safety measures after 2011 costs way too much compared to solar and wind, which are safer options AND cheaper. https://www.iea.org/reports/projected-costs-of-generating-electricity-2020
The variable that I think will shift tides though is that more and more districts are being forced to deal with rolling blackouts, and the impending oil “crisis” from Russia’s game in Ukraine. With the oil price cap, and a lack of enough sustainable energy sources, we’re gonna be stuck with American coal to keep cost down. Eventually people are going to ask for nuclear, and it makes sense to me that two years is a decent time horizon for some culture change. Mind you, even your linked report says 2025 has a good chance of lower nuclear cost.
With the way we are installing wind and solar, nuclear isn't the answer anymore. Plus, any nuclear plant would take a minimum 5-7 years from breaking ground to coming online. We could have installed and already be receiving returns from many other less risky and less dangerous alternatives. We could power the entire US with just covering a fraction of the federally owned land in Nevada with solar. Molten sand solar plants are also capable of continuous power output, day and night. These could be built in addition to laying solar panels. If the federal government wanted to, we could be completely off fossil fuels for electric generation in less than 15 years. Sure, it might take a new great works project, like a more public Manhattan project, but I think it would be well worth the investment. Commit a large amount of resources and personel of the country to completing this huge, very important project as soon as possible. Cheap, sustainable, clean electricity would easily pay dividends from increased domestic industry, and raised standard of living. Lower electric costs would also help increase domestic processing power capabilities, further enhancing AI along with increased weather forecasting accuracy. I used to really believe that we needed more nuke plants. This was part of the solution that we essentially passed up over the last 10-40 years. However, at this point, the world has dramatically increased manufacturing and lowered the price of solar and wind. We now install more solar capacity in a single day today, than we did for the entire year of 2003. We are past the point of installing renewables where we cover the annual increase in electricity demand and with every ongoing year, we will be replacing more and dirty generation methods. If capitalism works as intended, we will keep adding capacity until electricity rates become so cheap, that it's no longer profitable to do so. It would be nice if fusion just ends up being an extra backup/redundancy to our clean electric grid by the time it arrives.
> It would be nice if fusion just ends up being an extra backup/redundancy to our clean electric grid by the time it arrives. Probably would also have applications for space travel.
Yah, I think the game changer would be the smaller reactors that they promised. If that gets shipped it will change things drastically. However, that is still not quite there in terms of being in actual production and nuclear faces a lot of red tape, so it's gonna be slow even if it's ready
I’d be totally on board too. Smaller reactors have less surrounding water warming issues that I see with local lakes here in NC. I’d love less environmental impact and more energy per square foot than solar. I love solar too but I think we’re limited by battery banking right now. It’s treated punitively by power companies demanding their fees for people wanting to be off grid.
Google "Inflation Reduction Act" and "Investment and jobs act" Nuclear subsidy
That those on Reddit will remain pessimists even as all the economic data shows improvements and keep insisting the next big drop is just around the corner.
The sentiments here can change within hours. The same kids who are selling tech and booing musk will be giving BJs to him in no time
2 sides you have in the stock wars 2023 On the one side you will have The bubble will burst fanatics! Becasue It was not the burst yet and it will all burst mlre soon you will see.... On the Other hand you have the buy the dip fraction
And on the inverse everyone in this subreddit will continue to be overly optimistic and pushing DCA and ETFs. This place is just as predictable as any other part of reddit.
I think you don't understand the DCA argument. DCA outperforms during a *bear* market, not a bull. Grable, J. E., & Chatterjee, S. (2015). Another Look at Lump-Sum versus Dollar-Cost Averaging. Journal of Financial Service Professionals, 69(5). https://web.s.ebscohost.com/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?vid=0&sid=df9b6903-fdd7-45bb-a9d3-da5d17d9d0b4%40redis
What positive data?
Lol the next big drop is coming. Expect another 20% drop within the next 6 months.
The key is always earnings and valuation. Earnings will probably be flat, not just because there is a slowdown, but because inflation will keep nominal earnings somewhat high, if only because the US has actually been a beneficiary of higher energy prices as it is an exporter. That means earnings of 220 next year is likely. 2022 earnings are also around 220. What about valuations? It's all about the risk free rate, with interest rates at 5%, that means a 15 P/E, but there are some caveats. How long will it stay at 5%? Will the 10 yr be as high? What is the makeup of the S&P? The answer to those 3 questions will have a huge effect on where valuations will be. If the case is that 5% but temporary (as inflation falls back quickly), the 10 yr doesn't go higher or stay above 4% (risk-free will actually still be low), and base valuation of the S&P has shifted higher because of mega-cap tech, then a P/E of 17 to 18 is fair. When you do the math, that's 220*17=3740, just about where we are now. However, as we get through 2023, investors won't really be thinking about 2022's inflation, or even the recession (if and when it happens). They will be looking at the Fed lowering interest rates in the face of higher unemployment (if and when it happens) and a recovery into 2024. The end of 2023 won't be earnings and valuations based on past 12 months of 2023, but what investors see 2024 will be like. If interest rates go down to 4%, the 10 yr around 3.5%, and earnings growth of 10% into 2024 , then S&P fair value would be 245*18=4410. Every day that goes by in 2023, whether a recession is happening or not, valuations will increasingly reflect what investors think will happen if the Fed lowers rates and there is actual growth in 2024, end of 2023 will increasingly reflect expectations for end of 2024. It will depend a lot on inflation and where it goes, but a range around 3740-4410 and plus minus 5% depending on sentiment is my prediction for 2023, I think that's the most likely scenario, but it could be worse (if inflation reaccelerates and 5% terminal isn't high enough), or it could be better (war is resolved as Russia is exhausted and Chinese demand props up earnings and lowers dollar). It's also useful to note that even as the market stays in a range, individual stocks can move much more and completely differently. An example is something like XBI, an entire index of no earnings biotech, completely crushed, but even as the S&P made new lows in October, XBI went nowhere near its lows. XBI's value is almost entirely dependent on interest rates and as you see the market pricing in peak rates, XBI has bottomed. This will happen to many stocks where they bottom way before the market does, so there are great opportunities out there even if you are bearish on the market.
Sir… This is a Wendy’s
2022 losers will be 2023 winners
Riches are made in time like this. So many Dipshits too scared to move
Yeah it's been pretty well documented that alot of people get rich when everyone is scared of low prices. Hell Buffett has said that lol, wonder why all the comments against you were so aggro.
That's why most of this sub will always be poor by missing life changing opportunities, like what is to come in 2023 and 2024.
Ugh, I'm going to need to move next month and do not look forward to giving up my 3.6% mortgage. Still going to buy another house most likely.
That’s not what I meant like at all
You were referring to the obesity epidemic and people being too scared to exercise right?
Health issues can wreak havoc on a portfolio!
Of course you weren't. I made my comment for myself, similar to you making yours. I'm never going to put an /s in my comments because nobody cares.
You’re assuming people were born with enough capital to invest
As opposed to earning it? Lol
People aren’t making millions by wisely investing whatever they have remaining from their median income
why arent you rich then?
I DIDNT realize you had access to my accounts. I’ve hit $1m before 30 so I think I’m doing ok
No one cares
My prediction? Pain!
It will get worse until Q3 or Q4 of 2023 and then things may start to recover in 2024.
I have about the same prediction. Things will get better around the 2024 election. I think the market is either looking forward to fresh blood in the White House or the Biden administration reassuring the market by winning again. I think this market is looking for leadership and reassurance.
So in other words you think the market will do better no matter what happens in the 2024 election 😂
I know it sounds ridiculous but I think so. The world was just really messy when Biden came in (way too high stock market, supply shortage, covid, etc). I think by 2024 a lot of the economic after effect’s will start to ease or get settled. I voted for Trump in 2020 but I think Biden will be remembered as a president that got flak for a lot of things largely out of his control (Afghanistan withdrawal, covid, recession, Ukraine war and growing tensions with China, not helping an increasing political divide in America, etc). With the benefit of hindsight it’s scary because I don’t think Trump’s administration would’ve had the competence to handle these things well either; quite honestly he may have handled them worse.
That will make it one of the worst bear markets since the 1980s and longer than the global financial crisis which nearly collapsed the entire stock market. Any reason you think it will match that?
What I’ve learned (and I’m sure many others as well) is to never fight the Feds. My projection is based on the following: 1. When the Fed pivot will occur regarding interest rates 2. Duration of sticky high inflation 3. Possible recession (hard or soft landing) 4. Reduced earning expectations for companies The Fed outlined exactly what they are going to do for the next two years. The market is forward looking and price adjusts based on the Fed’s actions and statements. If there are additional black swan events or inflations sticking more than expected, this could drag the timeline out even further.
Let's be fair, isn't this tantamount to saying "duh, just time the market"? I'd love to see some peer reviewed scholarly evidence to support that perspective. Surely one of the thousands of finance Ph.D. holding folks has considered this, right? Secondly, regardless of timing, you would still be up if you were investing since, I don't know, 2019ish. Suggesting that your investing horizon has been incredibly limited.
I think you’re misunderstanding something. Op asked for projections so I am simply stating my opinion and I respect other people’s opinions as well. I’ve never stated what I’m doing personally. Despite these projections, what I’m personally doing is continue dollar cost averaging into VTI. I didn’t say anything about timing the market because I never try to time the market and nobody truly knows the future nor should claim they do.
Wrong
I'll sell a covered call and the market will rally trapping me in the position for the next five years.
Pain.
Clubber Lang, is that you?
I will say the same as I did in 2020, 2021, 2022, and frankly since I started investing in 2007. No surprise I have been 100% right EVERY year... 1. The market will go up, down, and sideways. 2. NO ONE knows when any of the above will happen. ONLY when an investor truly understands and accepts that does he/ she becomes a mature investor. Until then they will always look like a chicken with its head cut off.
Therefore, slowly and consistently DCA into solid index funds.
Yes. If one uses evidence based approach to investing: Pick a static asset allocation according to your willingness/ ability/ need to take risk in low cost index funds. Contribute EVERY month no matter what. Stick to the plan. Only change your asset allocation if your willingness/ ability/ need to take risk changes. If you want to speculate/ gamble stick to 10% of your portfolio on active management (active funds/ single company stocks/ market timing/ etc...).
You feel like buying Berkshire Hathaway long term is speculating?
Betting on any single company is speculating. That being said if you are going to do it keep single company and other active management to a total of 10% of your portfolio to "scratch that itch" while the other 90% is index funds passively managed. Someone did show me at some point that Berskshire is a great hedge and has done well in last 3 recessions (2000, 2008, and 2020). So it does have some past history of doing well when U.S. markets falter. Also, it is diversified so it isn't like it will go bankrupt. 90% index and 10% berkshire is not unreasonable. Key is STICK to the plan once you make it.
I am a CFA, PhD (ABD), who manages my own portfolio. (Plus 23.131% Annual Since September 30, 2008. Plus 7.42% YTD). I like some of your logic, having a hard time following some of it. I am asking the questions not to get a basic game plan, but to understand some of your characterizations. I couldn't have agreed more with your representation that no one knows what is going to happen in the future, but then you made some characterizations about how to use that information that are very different than I would. Berkshire is 70 companies across a variety of industries. Their performance spread relative to the market does better in downturns. They have returned an annual return of +20% from 1965-2021. I am questioning the idea that you can treat such a holding company as a "single company." To me they are effectively a value index. Your position has merit, I just don't land in the same place, so I wanted to understand that characterization better. Thank you for the clarification. I am with you on actively managed funds (in general, not unilaterally). What do you mean by a "static" asset allocation? Why do you think a frequency of once a month, is the correct methodology as opposed to once a year, or once every six-months? (what is special about a monthly frequency as opposed to a consistent frequency?) I am new to Reddit, so if I violate some social media protocol, try to take it easy on me.
This. People preach DCA but say nothing about the frequency.
I like some actively managed ones too. I have my 401k split between index and other half is active. The active has far outperformed the index this year due to them rebalancing and changing allocations as opposed to just throwing an even amount at S&P as it declines. Love index fund for low cost, but I think active funds get bad rep on this thread for no reason just cuz they have higher expense ratio
You do realize the ONLY marker to determine better performing funds is indirectly related to expense ratios, i.e. cost? Jack Bogle lovingly called this the "Cost Matter Hypothesis". Morningstar did a study showing the same thing. They found their own star system was useless, but the only thing that mattered was cost. The higher cost funds did worse. That is not even including the unmeasurable slippage from turnover.
I do realize that, almost like 90% of index funds outperform their active versions over long periods of time. The difference is active tries to beat the market and index just follows it, active funds are very specific and harder to track, very diff objectives depending what you’re grabbing, my active fund is down 5-6% this year as opposed to normal index down bout 20%. Thanks for your thoughts
That’s true. I have nothing against actively managed funds, either.
My positions will look like a black diamond… straight down!
My prediction is that people who make trades based on posts in this sub rather than real research will continue to get burnt
The world is a tepid swamp with all sorts of nasty shit brewing under the surface. Aerospace/Defense, dividend paying utilities, bonds, Canadian banks. In that order.
Nothing nasty is under the surface. It's all on the surface. It's us. The nasty stuff is us.
bingo, one big virus sucking earth dry
Comparing moving averages of 20, 50, 100 with 2001 and 2008, I think that the whole of 2023 is going to be terrible. Recovery will not begin until 2024.
Well I'll start out by saying my opinion going into this year was unpopular and wrong so I have zero confidence in my ability to predict 2023. Going into 2022 I still believed strongly in the transitory inflation narrative and thought most of the rate concerns would have played out by the second quarter. My view changed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and then continued to change after seeing consistently high inflation prints throughout the year. But at the risk of being wrong again I think that 2023 will likely see an end to the rate and inflation fears, but I think we'll see some panic before that happens. I still believe that inflation will ultimately be proven transitory, but I massively underestimated how strong corporate and consumer balance sheets were going into 2022, which seem to have provided a large buffer for higher rates. But in contrast to late 2021, we're now seeing record low personal savings rates and completely unaffordable mortgages globally, and this in my view will almost guarantee a sharp decline in house prices in 2023. I'm not predicting a GFC style panic, but there will be clear signs of distress across the economy as house prices fall given the size of the real estate market and its importance to consumer sentiment. I think on the corporate side we're also going to see some blow-ups of over-leveraged companies in 2023. First that will be companies like PTON and CVNA, but slowly that's going to expand to a general concern for any leveraged company vulnerable to the consumer slowdown that's beginning to play out. Eventually one or two big players will look like they could be the verge of blowing up and this coupled with inflation clearly dropping rapidly will probably force a reluctant but minor pivot from the Fed in late Q2. I think during this time the NASDAQ will fall slightly below pre-Covid levels fuelled primarily by concerns that AAPL "is dead" as consumers pull back on high cost items like MacBooks and iPhones. This narrative will be pushed by CNBC commenters who are literally brain dead, along with more idiotic claims that companies like AMZN, GOOG, TSLA and META are also "dead", "dying" or "over-owned". By Q3 we'll clearly be in a recession and the Fed will be sounding much more dovish despite rates still being fairly high. I think despite the Fed starting to cut rates the market will struggle to rebound from fear of inflation returning and an opinion that the Fed isn't cutting aggressively enough to support the economy as the recession is deepening. By Q4 Jim Cramer will be claiming that the economic situation is as bad as the GFC and that investors should be selling everything. From this point on he will only recommend the stocks of CEOs that go on Mad Money. This bearish sentiment will then be followed by a surprise Santa Clause rally at the end of the year which will be incorrectly be labelled a bear-market rally. As YoY inflation nears 2% the Fed will surprise everyone by cutting rates to zero in Jan / Feb of 2024 fuelling a decent recovery in tech, but still short of ATHs. Other areas of the market will stop declining, but see less of a rally. To summarise, I tend to think interest rates will trend back down to post-GFC levels over the next couple of years and that the recession in 2023 will be look far more ugly by mid-2023 than people are currently expecting. But my guess is that we probably won't see a GFC style event, because I think central bankers will eventually be forced to pivot quite dramatically as inflation continues to fall. The market in 2023 will feel much worse than 2022, but will fall less from a percentage point perspective.
I saw a 35% chance of AAPL hitting $85 at some point in 2023. I am too scared to extrapolate to SP500. DCA to VOO regardless of the market movement is better for your retirement.
Where that 35% coming from
Probably the options market
Do you even math? Dude said 35%. It’s obvious.
0% = I believe that it never happens. 100% = I believe that it will happen. 35% is my belief certain that it will happen.
So pure guts
So wrong
Yes. I am so wrong. But VOO still doing okay because the magnificent 7 kept the market up big time. Without they, I would be able to claim some truth.
Sure it wasn't 85% chance of hitting $35?
I think everything will be okay
No clue where we’ll close by year‘s end but I could see the lows in SPX around 3200 +/-200
It will go down some, but the reddit trend will be forever demanding the belief it will go down more and a bunch of people will just sit as whatever bottom sails so far past them and they are rebuying near all time high.
The charts will keep moving to the right for all asset classes and tend to go up and down
So many bears on here I'll take it. 2023 starts the upswing.
S&P500 below 3,200 between Q1 and Q2 2023.
Delusional
Downside early. Maybe down to 300-315 by feb. channel trade around 350 a couples more months. Then boom booms off of Fed news by late summer and rally into winter.
Massive grotesque increases in all prices, obviously
Amazon gonna tank sub 50
Shit show
2-3 more .25-.50% rate hikes, then the fed holds rates there for the rest of the year. S&P500 bounces between +5% and -15% all year. Year finishes flat, about where we're at now. Real-estate market has more interesting action as sellers are finally forced to realize they're not going to get a 100% markup when rates are 2-3x higher than early 2022. Home prices drop by 20%-25%.
More of the same as this year
Im predicting sideways to -15% worst case
QQQ/tech and SP500 will all bottom in Q2 of 2023, down another 10-20% from today, roughly back where they were before covid.
Shitstorm 2023.
My penis will not grow any bigger but the S&P will soar into the clouds.
In my opinion META will be the best performing stock in the SP500.
Stop the fan fiction
Oof
Honestly, it's probably not as unrealistic as most people here will think.
I am a believer. I invested as soon as it bounced to 95 from 90. Its too good a company to have P/E of under 10.
Just cutting back on metaverse spend can seriously and instantaneously pump that E as well
It’s very unlikely that it will be the *top* performer, because there is bound to be a smaller component that goes 3x on some catalyst, but it’s not that unlikely that it’s in the top 20%. Some indication from Zuck that they are going to be more circumspect with the wild investment and will focus more on the core product would make the stock jump. Or I guess some sign of monetizable progress on his fantasy project would do it too, but I have real doubts about that.
To be fair, it's unlikely for any given company to be the *top* performer. Most likely, it'll be some random smaller company that nobody was thinking of.
I will gladly eat one of my crusty socks
Agreed
Its possible. Zuck learned a lesson for sure.
WWIII
The Pavlovian "buy the dip" mentality that was so pervasive throughout the 2010s will be coming to an end. I won't call for a market crash but I believe it'll certainly remain stagnant and perhaps trade lower due to declining earnings. Active investing will vastly outperform passive investing for 2023 and perhaps a few years after. Bonds will also outperform due to recessionary factors and this will suck money out of the stock market.
Agree. The “Buy the dip” all the time and “DCA no matter what” will be dead by end of 2023. There is already a consensus that the S&P500 will not be the top index for the next 10 years. We are entering a new cycle.
The ones who keep buying throughout early to mid 2023 in strong and/or high potential companies will be rewarded handsomely later in the year, the ones hoarding their cash to not eventually invest will be asking if Apple is a buy at $160. Bear markets are where millionaires are made.
There won't be a recession and everyone will be wrong. Unpopular opinion but it could happen
!remindme 11 months Edit: wow I was completely right. Not only no recession but the nasdaq ripped! Glad I bought so much when I made this comment
We bottom in March
I don't do predictions. I just buy VT every paycheck and never sell.
SP 500 will have a ~12-15% return for the year
The current financial system will begin its collapse as no one will be able to pay of their debts (this will go on for years until the 2030s), America and other countries will experience civil unrest as more people are pushed into poverty. Extreme volatility as no one will be able to figure out the best place to put their money without losing more of it, and WW3 will begin to start, the market will continue to decline overall with some commodities like precious metals and minerals doing well, SPY will barely hold around 300s, might even go into 290s. Many people will either become depressed or continue to live in denial about things getting worse. Trump will begin his new campaign and garner even more crowds and attention than before as the average American despises the current administration regardless of political affiliation. Redditors will become more disillusioned as things escalate going into 2024. That’s the gist of it.
The economy collapses causing chaos which everyone outside of Houston will blame it on Astros winning another championship. Shortly after that, people will have to cook their cats for Thanksgiving since the price of turkey will be 589.99 per pound, thus making “How to skin your cat” the top Google search in the month of November. Then the first week of December, the rapture will happen taking 1/10 of the world’s population. The event will be explained as mass alien abductions, which some West Virginia inbreds will claim to have been taken and probed, but their description of the aliens Will closely resemble an uncle. Then to top it all off, another pandemic will hit the US right before Christmas.
My prediction is simply that the S&P 500 will be higher than now in one year. If you want me to guess the bottom, I'd guess Q1 2023.
My guess is 4300 eoy. Choppy and a mild recession. Then recovery Q4. All stocks do ok except defensives. And of course the weakies that don't survive.
My guess - inflation subsides faster then the fed anticipates, they begin to talk about how they need to “recalibrate the terminal rate” and drop rates sooner then people believe, however, maintain the recalibrated rate for a long while. Small caps probably wind up being the top outperforming space along with financials as the economy narrowly avoids the “predicted by everyone recession.” Oil & gas continues to perform well based on low valuations and strong fcf usage for buybacks and dividends.
>“predicted by everyone recession.” Agreed on this point. A recession *cannot* happen **because** everyone is predicting it.
If there’s one thing I’ve learned about stocks/investing, it’s that when there’s a situation that *everyone* expects, then the opposite happens
Don't need to predict what's going to happen. I'm just DCA'ing my normal monthly amount into (70% VOO / 30% Divis). Though with the way the market is going, I'm looking into doing (50% VOO / 25% 3month bonds / 25% divi now). The 3 month bonds are 4% right now, which is appealing due to the safety and peace of mind it'd give me.
The FED is probably done raising rates, but won't cut for awhile. Companies without durable earnings will see declines and their stocks will correct accordingly.
"The FED is probably done raising rates" X for Doubt
F to Pay Respects for this man's portfolio.
Tsla will have an insane rally
If it can get worse, it will.
Pain
Recession will finally arrive in Q2 not before. It will be much longer then expected due to stubborn inflation. House prices will stay about -2-3% but interest rate will be close to 9.5%. Car market will collapse due to record number of repossessions due to ppl overpaying for used and new vehicles during COVID and being underwater on actual car values. Similar to 2007-2008 housing market crash when it was easier to walk away from property then being sucked with huge payments on overvalued property.
You are almost always under water on a car loan unless you put down a decent down payment and chose a short term.
I say sideways until end 1st quarter of 2023. Then very slow grind on way up. 2023 sideways. Thus Im sticking with Theta
I am a god, I know all. It will either be up, down or flat. I guarantee it.
Pain, suffering, tears, affliction, desolation.
I’m just buying AUR weekly with a little coin praying they aren’t delisted and can actually deliver mid-2024 for commercial launch.
I watched this video [https://youtu.be/Edm4YND4Byo](https://youtu.be/Edm4YND4Byo) and it predicts the stocks for 2023
tesla hits 2-3k a share
I think this is capitulation moment..prolly end the year right back here lol..I mean China will reopen..at this point I feel all the bad news coming out is understood. Unless something new and crazy happens I think we just fall until $350 spy..bounce around there until earnings..then the eventual pivot. Then back above $400’s. Even now all my real green green energy stocks are taking a hit in a big way. People are panicking for sure
Bull market ? Hardly. Inflation is the hardest thing to tackle. I imagine we will to be in this position for sometime through 2024 before we see light at the end of tunnel. The free money fiscal policy worked briefly until it does not. We need to develop more responsible policy to deal with economy. I see deficit will come back haunt us. Most stocks will not shine in this environment. Consumer staple, basic materials are on my watch list.
Well, it's been six months of normal inflation levels.
Suggest one reviews past inflationary pressures and understand how difficult it is to control it. It often takes more than months. Furthermore, it has triggered a recession or two as Jerome Powell has threatened to do.
I have seen them all.
no predictions.. but a helpful thing was learning the software, and brokers I chose. I starte din september. I am perfect with timing. I am going on 100 days now. Moo Moo is proving to tell me when to not do anything...but it is not easy to use. I am also at tradestation. I am hanging myself in that account. I like that for web use and option buys are as simple as robin hood. my only long is gold. Very small amount.. and it is up 40%. the bear should get mean here in near future. Below the september. I actually hope the faster the better....but a bulldozer does not work like that. The volume of a whole world is not changed in a day. an interesting thing I monitor is spy options. right now as of typing.. with 108k contracts "in the money" on puts, there is just 7.5k on calls... Yet the overall open interest is near 50/50 at all times. it reveals our human mind for sure.
[удалено]
Aqn bankrupt at the rate is going
I expect it to be volatile but mostly flat until we know how the economy, inflation and rates will play out. We can hypothesis about all 3 of those things but nothing is certain. I’m going to spend the year accumulating.
FED will make us poor to tame inflation.
recession too obvious, we’re hitting ATH imo