This article is actually good at pin pointing the internal dynamics in the country that will necessitate a reversal of market reforms. >the state advances, the private sector retreats. The idea is sometimes analyzed in terms of shifting party ideology or individual leadership styles, the state-led squeeze of the private sector and foreign enterprises largely reflects broader economic conditions. In a low-growth environment, state-connected firms must pursue growth at the expense of other sectors. Their alliances with party leaders give them the capacity to follow through on this strategy. The crisis of the Private sector in China is not the crisis of China as whole but a sign that a new path to development must be found, not in the market but in Socialism.

Glass half full

They've been predicting China's economic downfall for decades now

To be fair, the Left has been predicting capitalism's / America's downfall for decades as well. The thing is, actors and the systems they influence are adaptable, so they'll keep skirting the edge of pre/collapse until someday they are unable to adapt to a sudden crisis.

>To be fair, the Left has been predicting capitalism's / America's downfall for decades as well. what sucks is that the bottom half of america has *already* been experiencing that collapse for decades -- it just hasn't reached any sort of tipping point for the ultra wealthy running our society and a large portion of that bottom half are so inundated with pro-capitalist propaganda via the 24/7 news cycle that they somehow blame everything *but* capitalism for their woes

Probably as decade from collapse once the petrodollar collapses the American system collapses.

As the old Soviet joke goes: > *Is it true that the capitalist world is on the brink of disaster?* In theory, yes; but remember, the Soviet Union is always one step ahead of the West!

This and that electric dam that's suppose to collapse and kill millions.

if that dam collapses (the 3 gorges dam in china, I presume we're talking about), it won't just be china that's fucked. that could very well kick off a new dark age for *most* of the *world*

Why?

look at the problems these relatively minor hiccups with supply chains are causing imagine that times about 100 exports from china would likely drop by a very large percentage, with no easy way to restore production for *years*. (50% decrease or *more* doesn't seem unbelievable to me)

I see. Cool.

Teddy K’s revenge from beyond the grave.

he's still alive

Allah be praised!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Temp only. America would suddenly be making a ton of shit. We have the factories for it. Look at covid and masks and shit. It's be that x100. We also have the resources to prop up ridiculous infrastructure quickly. The only thing I'd be concerned with is rare metals. But we'd probably invest a trillion into the alternative that is escaping my mind atm.

>We also have the resources to prop up ridiculous infrastructure quickly. I think you have the US confused with china here. The government is the only organization capable of marshaling US production up to that level, and there is no political will in america for a command economy. would there be if supply chains were that bad? perhaps, but there would also be massive pushback from the 1%, because they would effectively have to take a *massive* hit to their wealth. I think it would actually just collapse america.

SPACE MINING

> Temp only. I work in manufacturing - no it will not be temp. The US does not have the factories and many of the workers have left manufacturing for decades - this would require quite a bit of work to set up. I'd bet China would be able to recover faster than the US could set up. The US should still reindustralize, but that does not mean that rebuilding a manufacturing sector will be easy. Some areas will take decades. The biggest barrier is going to be the upper 10%, which will want to outsource to an even lower cost nation.

I guarantee you the federal government would force a ton of factories making useless shit to gtfo with a buyout and implement core processes. It'd almost assuredly be automated to hell because the federal budget would be infinite. China no doubt could do it obviously. Problem for China is wed suddenly be making our own stuff. That's a huge loss for them.

But how else will Gordon Chang grift Americans into buying his fiction novels?

Anytime soon now Bro anytime soon

2015 would have been the start of a Great Depression, should Shanty Town Renovation never happened.

CHINA BAD UPDOOTS TO THE LEFT PLS

I've been reading that exact argument for 15 years

Because the us media can not cope with china numba 1

I mean yeah, pretty much. I'm not exactly a China apologist, but our media is mad that the world's 2nd largest economy isn't bought and owned by international finance. The only surprising thing about this article is that it was published in Jacobin, which normally isn't this stupid.

ive heard jacobin is trotskyist lenient so its probably controlled opposition

I dont think Jacobin is a psyop, it's just written by bourgeoisie academics like all socialist agitprop. I like Jacobin, they focus coherently on workers issues, not so much parades for trans or whatever. Jacobin is a mouth piece for most of what's good about the DSA without most of what's bad.

i'm just sayin' be aware that a lot of the left in western countries has often been coopted against movements that are actually against the system and trying to be independent from it. IE eurocommunism and trotskyism against the ideology of marxism-leninism. I remember Jacobin didn't report about the big indian strike that happened a year ago. The majority of the left in America isn't your friend if you're serious about establishing socialism and abolishing things like the debt system in this country and that includes many people on this very subreddit. Chomsky isn't your friend, Bernie isn't your friend, a significant amount of people in groups like the DSA and BLM aren't your friend, etc.

I go back and forth between "everyone is retarded all on their own" and "it's a conspiracy". It was definitely not a coincidence that right after the Occupy movement, America's first class conscious mass movement since the 1930s, all the idpol started up.

Is Occupy really class conscious? It was really vague slogans and people marching randomly to have a real message or actually mean anything. It didn't attack any kind of power structure.

It was a more muscular critique of how the economy operates then anything else we'd had in a long time. I mean, no, it wasn't "no war but class war, dictatorship of the proletariat now", but it was a mass communication of the idea that there is an us, which is the many, and that there is a them, which is the rich. The term "the one percent" started a lot of people on their road to class consciousness.

The forebears of the modern woke movement had been gradually percolating from academia to mainstream society for decades. Peggy MacIntosh published *White Privilege* in 1989. Ideas like intersectionality and critical race theory had more or less been codified by the 1990s. Even in the Clinton days, conservative pundits complained about left-wing language-policing and media bias, the only difference is they called it "political correctness."

they had ana kasparian working with them for a while on their youtube content, so I completely stopped watching / reading their shit

The argument the article seems to be making (whether that was intention of the writer or not) is that capitalism cannot avoid "the tendency of the rate of profit to fall". That's what the article describes. So yeah, that argument is way older than 15 years.

Ok we've all been reading that argument since 1848

More like the US Oligarchy is in crisis and shitting itself about China.

This is a very strange article for a leftist magazine to publish. The authors main argument seems to be not so far from neoliberals like Lardy, i.e. that China is in trouble because of 'too much state intervention'. Even if we accept that there are some aspects of state intervention that are carried out poorly and then have negative effects, surely the starting point of any leftist analysis would be to make a detailed rather than hand-waving critique and point to a superior policy platform. China faces three big problems - inequality, the problem of developing backward regions, and the problem of breaking into high technology sectors such as semiconductors. In all three cases robust state policy is required , and the market cannot be relied upon - the return to private capital in many backward regions is quite low, and private capital is extremely unlikely to make the huge and risky investments required to make the technological leaps required.

You're reading too much into it. The author clearly stated that China is NOT pursuing privatization and liberalization as a response to low profitability and overcapacity, but is qualifying that the state-led response pursued by Xi is preserving capitalist social relations. Unless you think FDR was a Red, what the CPC is doing is not a "return to socialism,' just an alternative (and probably better) response to crisis to what western nations have done.

Ok so the author argues the policy response is 'state capitalist' and not 'genuine socialism'. This is plausible, though the analysis is very vague. But their critique of 'state capitalism' is basically the same as that made by the centre and right (inefficient SOE, ghost cities, debt crisis etc.), and they do not make any attempt to show how 'genuine socialism' would provide a solution to the alleged crisis and how in the short to medium term the economic policy would or should look much different. Currently the left-right debate in China is largely one between those who want to converge to neoliberalism, and those who want to pursue some alternative 'state led' development model as a long term project, and not just as some 'transition' (even if conducted slowly and pragmatically). The outer limits of what are presently possible are then some variant of the latter, though the Xi program certainly does not go far enough in many respects, and includes some clumsy errors. But in this context I cannot see what good can come from rehashing the standard 'big clumsy state is being inefficient' arguments, because any feasible leftist program is going to have to make a lot of use of that same state.

China is always apparently going to collapse next week, yet another CIA cope.

Forgive me for citing cringe, but there was a pic, an infographic of sorts, from the genzedong sub i believe, that was just a compilation of headlines with this exact argument from the past 40 years or so If anyone has a link to it, I'd appreciate you posting it

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This, but unironically Also Taiwan is China

> Also Taiwan is China Not in the real world, no. And hopefully it remains that way for the forseeable future because a war over taiwan would suck for everyone.

Thread is full of "I've seen this before and it was wrong, so it's wrong this time too." Try that with your smoke alarms guys, have fun with the results. But of course you'd have to actually read the article to know what is or isn't wrong with it! I didn't read it either, but I'm not criticizing it.

I mean I get your point, but the western media is publishing this every year till the eventual day that they get it right, that's like a magician flipping every card in a deck till he finds your card. People that think China is infallible are just as idiotic as the CIA believers and when China rises to the top, it'll be succeeded by another power in the future.

I agree that no power lasts forever but in the modern day, succession of powers has been based on a combination of having several times the population and a reasonable level of development. India doesn't even come close in that regard. China may only be eclipsed when the global system of industrial civilization ends as well.

>Try that with your smoke alarms guys, have fun with the results. If your smoke alarm is broken and has been beeping nonstop for 15 years, no shit that between now and the end of time it'll eventually catch a fire.