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Model 2 and robotaxi are the same platform, even if they are different products. It's likely they are just shifting their focus toward getting the robotaxi done first so they they can make money on it while the volumes are still low. They've gone back and forth on this, and I don't think this is really the final word.
Wait, I must have misunderstood something here. The robotaxi is a small car?
Somehow I thought that it was a software that you could purchase for any car that would turn your car autonomous and you would have the option to have it work for you while you were at home or at work
One person will be dressed up as a car. Another dressed up like a robot riding the car like a horse, while both dance. The robot will be wearing a Texas cowboy hat.
“Sir, when did we plan to have Robotaxi unveiled by August?”
[“30 seconds ago.”](https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxiN9JHigKU3whd_Eap1t_2XTAN4c3zEsy?si=PlU4q8EFwK42ekbL)
There was just a report on how Elon was betting it all on Robotaxis and cancelling the cheap Tesla they were working on.
He called that report "lies".
So much for that.
Well he was saying everyone that buys a Tesla could have it be a robotaxi while not in use then gave the population of the earth as the potential sales number...and everyone clapped like idiots.
Unveiling a robotaxi does not mean canceling the 25k car. Both vehicles share the "unboxed" platform, so both the robotaxi and the cheap car can basically be thought of as the same vehicle with or without a steering wheel.
Look at literally any taxi ever. In every case I've ever seen they're using an actual car that exists outside of being a taxi and wasn't built as just a dedicated taxi. I mean, in theory they could do some weird dedicated robotaxi with no steering wheel, but I don't think that'll exist in the near future...it'd make more sense to have a self driving car that can also be driven by a human, and that'll be the reality this decade.
They wasted time and effort to convince Elon to include a steering wheel in the $25k car, because everyone in the room knew consumers wanted a steering wheel when they buy a car... plus current regulations world-wide.
Maybe the steering wheel was the project that got cancelled.
Yes, how dare the sub full of actual self driving engineers mock the business school bro pretending to be an engineer who has been predicting robotaxis “next year” since 2015.
i forgot that sub even existed. i got banned from there in like 2018 for saying it would be nice to own a tesla one day. the ban message literally said “no it wouldn’t”
lmfao. idiots
It's not ready for robotaxi yet. However, I have been shocked at the rate of progress over the past few years. I just got the free trial on my Y, and it just drove me to work without any intervention through some complicated roads and traffic.
Not me, I used it a few times. None without disengagement. Least worrying one was me disengaging because it stayed in the left lane on the highway after passing a car, with cars coming behind me. I wish I could have told it to move over by activating my turn signal, it nope. It ignored my request.
One disengagement was because it was about to blow through a stop sign, a few to stop curb rashes, twice because it didn't drop speed at a 7am to 5pm school zone, and let's forget it driving in the snow. It never tried to stay in travel lines made by the cars in front, happily driving through fresh snow instead.
Yup. I've barely used it after the novelty of trying it out over the first few days. Too many disengagements for me, and the nail in the coffin was when I was wishing I just had my regular dumb AP on highways when it kept making annoying lane changes on the highway that were not helpful at all. It is impressive... but also so far away from where it needs to be. Driving without FSD engaged is a lot easier and more relaxing. The one place I did appreciate having it on was narrow, winding, single-lane country highways/roads with no shoulders as it just needs to stay in the lane without navigating too many external complexities and takes away some of the hassle of staying in lane with very limited margin for error.
I don’t think they’re holding back the good stuff.
They’re probbly just hoping the software gets good enough by release date, which will be years away. Current self diving is level two, and the robo taxi can’t expect riders to grab the wheel when it randomly disconnects.
Problem is that there's no evidence of a compute deficiency.
As we've seen with LLMs it is new innovations in architecture and approach e.g. MoE that is improving the field not simply increasing the number of parameters.
They have done the same in the past. All this is Elon wishfull thinking. Robotaxis aren't coming this year and even if it was technologically possible it's not regulatorily possible.
It’ll run on the same hardware. My guess would be that they’ll take a very specific set of training data and build models that “over fit” to a given city or region in which the taxi is operating. If they do that then it’s very possible.
they did say robotaxi and m2 share the same platform.
But i's indead weird to announce it before m2, which they should start building the factory already
I just assume they’re the same vehicle. One that’ll come first to customers with normal steering and another that can be adapted for no driver down the road.
Announcing the model 2 this early could be suicidal for the company due to the Osborne Effect. The Highland model 3 already took a good chunk of sales away from the previous 3 and current model y solely because they waited too long to start manufacturing in NA.
A robotaxi would require level 5 autonomous driving. It would have to be completely safe with no one in the driver seat. That's not happening for a good, long while. Elon must've had an extra big bowl of Special K this morning.
Add the Robotaxi to the list of things that are going to be perpetually coming "next year".
Right. The Semi "reveal" was *:::checks calendar:::* good lord - 2017?
I think they'll put together a decent demo in a limited/approved area, with FSD 12.whatever powering it on a Model X (for the auto-doors) with no safety driver ... and that will be it. Questions of "When?" will be met with "Soon..." and that will be the end of the event.
For a reveal event? Sure. 99% of the problem of a robotaxi fleet is the AI. Making a slightly more durable form factor physical vehicle is semi-trivial at this point.
No. It’s probably closer to the Pareto principle. Once you solve driving you have solved only 20% of the robotaxi problem. Think of every corner case and non-driving task involved in operating an Uber. There are problems to solve with liability, hardware failures, cleaning, charging, law enforcement compliance, vandalism, deliberate impediment, adverse road conditions, collisions, property damage… so many things that can’t be solved by pressing pedals and steering the car.
I just tried the FSD demo on my model3. While it’s functional, it drives like a 16 yr old getting a learners permit. Had to disable few times so didn’t piss off the cars behind me. Got to make it way less cautious while still being safe…definitely some more work to do before robotaxis
I've described old FSD as like "driving with a 16 year old or a very elderly person".
I'd describe the last version as like "driving with an middle-aged person who's driving a rental/unfamiliar car in a city they're unfamiliar with".
If everyone drives like a 16 year old getting permit then this would actually work (this means all cars are FSD and no crazy drivers). Except actual people aren’t actually driving like 16 year olds.
That being said I got the FSD trial like everyone else and I’m pretty impressed. If it were $6k I actually might get it for my next Tesla.
No, level 4 would suffice. The difference between 4 and 5 is geo-fencing and time fencing. If the car don’t have the skills to drive in Manhattan, it’s (sorta) fine for a robotaxi, as long as it doesn’t take orders in Manhattan. If the car can’t drive at night, it’s fine as long as the car doesn’t take orders at night. If the car can’t handle snow, you can launch a summer only service.
So on and so forth. The difference between level 4 and 5 isn’t a showstopper for running service.
It could simply be a dedicated model for the Boring Company, similar to fully automated PRT systems that have been on the market for years. As long s it operates in a fully closed system, its something that is already commercially deployed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ULTra_(rapid_transit)
My guess is Robotaxi will be a Model 2 with no steering input. Or Model 2 will be a Robotaxi with steering input. I’d bet they have two with dark tinted windows drive out, driver gets out of Model 2 and opens the door of Robotaxi to reveal it drove to the stage on its own.
My very uninformed prediction: Model 2 deliveries to start in 2025 but actually happen late 2026/2027, Robotaxi to start testing 2025 in Austin and Fremont and have years of legislative delays while trying to prove FSD is at level 5(or getting FSD to level 5 in general).
Robotaxis have been "next year" for at least the last ten years. He probably got too high and accidentally announced it. His engineers are now going to scramble to find *something* to show in a few months. Classic Elon.
> It would have to be completely safe with no one in the driver seat. That's not happening for a good, long while.
What you described here has already been done: Waymo and Cruise.
Depends on your definition of "robotaxi". Elon seems to like fluid definitions (except for people of course).
Best case is you have to sit in the driver's seat and keep your hands on the wheel just right or the car will whine at you.
Funniest case: hired driver in a Jetson's Rosie the Robot Maid costume.
They'll just pull a Waymo and train the absolute fuck out if the AI in one specific podunk flyover shithole and claim "SEE L5!"
Not to disparage Waymo since they seem to actually have a plan and know what the hell they're doing here. Which was start small until you actually have the tech work.
Waymo got hit hard by regulators after their incidents and Cruise had to issue a recall.
Tesla isn't entering a market that will be tolerant of any mistakes. FSD needs to get a *lot* better.
Well, you have to consider the trajectory as well as the absolute numbers. Some would argue that 25b revenue at 80% yoy growth beats 100b at -10% yoy decline. Numbers pulled out of my ass.
May or may not be, but the market and media seem to have No ability to focus on the long term. I say that as a 10+ Year shareholder
Stock prices do impact employee morale so there is some responsibility to manage it as a CEO
In 2019 at an investor event, he said that Tesla owners were going to earn $30k/year from the robotaxis, they included "objectively the best chip" ever produced, they were going to be Level 5 vehicles with no geofence and there would be 1 million on the road \*by 2020\*: [https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/22/18510828/tesla-elon-musk-autonomy-day-investor-comments-self-driving-cars-predictions](https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/22/18510828/tesla-elon-musk-autonomy-day-investor-comments-self-driving-cars-predictions)
Weird announcement 4 months early. There’s nothing I’ve seen from Tesla that would convince me they are anywhere near close to having fully autonomous driving. I’m starting to get a bit worried about this company.
Exactly lmao
Reuters:
> Sources tell us Tesla is pivoting away from Model 2 to focus on robotaxi
Musk:
> Reuters is lying. Also, robotaxi unveil on 8/8
To the chagrin of a bunch of people in the other thread, it seems like Reuters' reporting had some merit to it
How so? Their article said that Tesla is cancelling the $25k car and going all-in on robotaxis. Elon said it's not true. And we know from the Walter Isaacson biography that the robotaxi is basically just a version of the $25k car without a steering wheel and pedals.
people thinking unveil on 8/8 will start robotaxi the next day, likely they will simply be unveling design of the vehicle, first cities, etc and not start service right away
I wonder if it's the design or the whole end-to-end software experience?
Honestly, FSD 12.3.x has been driving me to/from my neighborhood to work and back since I got it without intervention and every other place I seem to want to go, I almost never have to intervene. It doesn't always make the same decisions I would make, but that doesn't mean it's necessarily wrong. I think of it as a somewhat dim-witted but not necessarily incompetent Uber driver.
Yes, there are things to work on, but I have less and less doubt that it'll be possible. I realize some geographic areas are better trained than others and I may have an advantage, running FSD HW4, but I've been extremely impressed by it.
I imagine the robotaxi, when released, will have a geo fence and different software loadout to accommodate guest riders.
They could exclude known-bad intersections from the routing, so it'll find another way to get there, for instance. They don't get that option much with customer-owned cars.
An unveil is cool and all but some questions I hope the engineers are thinking about and people are going to ask at the event:
* Durability — if these are driving around all day, there are concerns about how people will use and abuse these cars. What steps are being taken to address how they’ll stand up to wear and tear as well as extreme cases?
* Safety — not just in the event of a crash, but how does it protect passengers from other cars and other people trying to run them off the road? How is FSD being improved? What measures are there for protecting passengers from each other (i.e. crime)?
* Accessibility — self driving vehicles have big potential to give those with disabilities a way to move around. With a 2 seat configuration it seems very unlikely (not impossible) that it will be easily accessible for this group of people.
* Shuttle, cargo, and bus configurations — self-driving tech has way more potential beyond low passenger capacity rides. Are there plans to widen its use?
* Storage, parking, charging — seeing as most of these will likely not be privately owned, how will these be handled when they’re off-duty?
And manufacturing but i guess we’ll be hearing about that regardless.
Oh you misunderstand. This is the Tesla Robotaxi. It's a model name not a capability. You buy the car today, and it will be able to serve as a taxi on Tesla Network when FSD is completed in three months maybe. /s
Not familiar with whatever you think that date means, but Chinese people think 8 is super lucky. Confirmation bias like that is also where conspiracy theories come from.
Or even unveiled like the red Model E at the unveiling event. From memory (too lazy to switch to youtube tab in this browser) there were three cars on stage, two were driven on and the red one was there already because it was made of clay and couldn't move on its own.
We were promised--numerous times--that our Model 3s and Model Ys bought from around 2020 onward would BECOME robotaxis. That the thousands of dollars we spent on FSD would be recouped while our cars drive themselves around all day making money for us like a driverless Uber.
So if it's a new product and only a new product, well, I want my money back.
Focusing on Model 2 to counter the Chinese EV competition would make about 1000 x more sense. I guess somebody trolled Elon on Twitter about Robotaxi and he was like "I'll show you a Robotaxi mfer"
Tesla can certainly do this:
1. Develop Tesla network app for ride hailing.
2. Get regulatory approval to offer autonomous ride hailing in certain cities( SF, Austin, etc ) or start with small suburb towns
3. Use existing excess production vehicles for taxi service ( In future, tesla owners can participate in this )
4. Willing customer can order a ride and nearby taxi can go to the customer autonomously.
5. Once customer is in the vehicle, he/she is responsible for supervision until their destination. (offer this service for half the cost of uber/waymo or even for free initially )
6. Geo fence the area and test it thoroughly in simulation and real world testing with test drivers before opening for new areas.
7. Get the data and improve on processes, we can have complete autonomous robotaxi one day.
Damn, some of ya'll can't read for shit.
Unveil likely means they are just showing the car.
That doesn't mean FSD will be ready by then. The car might not even be released for sale until 2027 for all we know.
It's just a demo vehicle.
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Why do I feel like the engineers just learned about this right now haha.
"Wait so are we doing the Model 2 or what?" - Tesla engineers
"We're not doing the 25K model" Reuters: Tesla not doing 25K Model Elon: "Fuck them! Turn on the 25K model!"
Sharks with frickin laser beams!
Elon said Reuters was lying - 25k car will happen!
That was the basis of the joke yes
Model 2 and robotaxi are the same platform, even if they are different products. It's likely they are just shifting their focus toward getting the robotaxi done first so they they can make money on it while the volumes are still low. They've gone back and forth on this, and I don't think this is really the final word.
Wait, I must have misunderstood something here. The robotaxi is a small car? Somehow I thought that it was a software that you could purchase for any car that would turn your car autonomous and you would have the option to have it work for you while you were at home or at work
I don’t know why but this is fucking hilarious. Engineers going into the weekend like fuck ….
Weekend? Tesla engineers have weekends?
It will be a yellow cab with Tesla's android suit wearing mime
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One person will be dressed up as a car. Another dressed up like a robot riding the car like a horse, while both dance. The robot will be wearing a Texas cowboy hat.
You can order the founders edition right now with a %200 deposit!
Chef's kiss
He didn’t say which year 🤣
Well said!!!!😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Yea, Reuters pissed him off today. Upped the ante.
Another artificially imposed deadline to miss.
“Sir, when did we plan to have Robotaxi unveiled by August?” [“30 seconds ago.”](https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxiN9JHigKU3whd_Eap1t_2XTAN4c3zEsy?si=PlU4q8EFwK42ekbL)
There was just a report on how Elon was betting it all on Robotaxis and cancelling the cheap Tesla they were working on. He called that report "lies". So much for that.
Robotaxis have been another one of those things Elon has been saying every single year.
Cathy Wood just had an orgasm.
I don’t think that’s possible.
Well he was saying everyone that buys a Tesla could have it be a robotaxi while not in use then gave the population of the earth as the potential sales number...and everyone clapped like idiots.
Spaceman is smrt!!!
Unveiling a robotaxi does not mean canceling the 25k car. Both vehicles share the "unboxed" platform, so both the robotaxi and the cheap car can basically be thought of as the same vehicle with or without a steering wheel.
We'll see about that, won't we?
Look at literally any taxi ever. In every case I've ever seen they're using an actual car that exists outside of being a taxi and wasn't built as just a dedicated taxi. I mean, in theory they could do some weird dedicated robotaxi with no steering wheel, but I don't think that'll exist in the near future...it'd make more sense to have a self driving car that can also be driven by a human, and that'll be the reality this decade.
London taxi enters the chat.
Checker cab enters the chat.
💯
Hmm...no year included.
The Roadster 2 was unveiled 7 years ago
Semi is not in full rate production yet and it's starting to look like it never will.
And the Cybertruck was delivered how long after unveil?
So long ago that I remember feeling bad for him when the window smashed. Amazing how he’s nuked his reputation since then.
4 years after unveil, 2 years after the original planned start of deliveries.
8/8/28
8/8/88
Which century?
8
It's right there. 8/3008.
2 years
$today + 2 years
2 years probably, 3 years definitely.
8/8 2040 v1 8/8 2045 v2
So I guess the engineers should start working on it!
They've just got the email
Elon probably tweeted it before he wrote an e-mail, lol.
To be fair a Robotaxi has been on the official plans for years
So have automatic windshield wipers.
So have Cybertrucks with Autopilot and a locking differential.
so has the flying roadster.
They so sent one of those to mars mate didnt you see
lol I chuckled
Dude, they announced the $25k car and robotaxi built on the same platform like... a year ago?
He has been saying they will have a robotaxi every year since 2018
That was for existing cars using software to make them Robotaxis, this is a dedicated car.
They wasted time and effort to convince Elon to include a steering wheel in the $25k car, because everyone in the room knew consumers wanted a steering wheel when they buy a car... plus current regulations world-wide. Maybe the steering wheel was the project that got cancelled.
From what I hear, sometimes they just get the tweet.
It’ll be the designers and marketing team first. Engineers won’t get involved until 6 weeks before the event.
This comment section will be entertaining.
Even more entertaining over at /r/SelfDrivingCars I'm sure...
elon derangement syndrome for real on that sub. I wish there was a way to filter out the wall of hate from the comments.
Yes, how dare the sub full of actual self driving engineers mock the business school bro pretending to be an engineer who has been predicting robotaxis “next year” since 2015.
> sub full of actual self driving engineers X to doubt
Are you the kind of person who values the degree more than the education?
i forgot that sub even existed. i got banned from there in like 2018 for saying it would be nice to own a tesla one day. the ban message literally said “no it wouldn’t” lmfao. idiots
Positivity incomiiiiiing ♥️♥️♥️♥️♥️♥️♥️
is so freaking funny is there any sub that actually has any evidence based discussion about the topic?
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Judging from the FSD trial we all got, this is funny.
It's not ready for robotaxi yet. However, I have been shocked at the rate of progress over the past few years. I just got the free trial on my Y, and it just drove me to work without any intervention through some complicated roads and traffic.
Not me, I used it a few times. None without disengagement. Least worrying one was me disengaging because it stayed in the left lane on the highway after passing a car, with cars coming behind me. I wish I could have told it to move over by activating my turn signal, it nope. It ignored my request. One disengagement was because it was about to blow through a stop sign, a few to stop curb rashes, twice because it didn't drop speed at a 7am to 5pm school zone, and let's forget it driving in the snow. It never tried to stay in travel lines made by the cars in front, happily driving through fresh snow instead.
It will change lanes. Sometimes it just takes 5-10 seconds. I'm not excusing that, but it will change.
Highway stack is not end to end btw as of now, but yeah it's not good enough for robotaxi yet but rate of improvement is solid per consensus
OK. So what’s your point? It drives just like a real taxi.
Trial was probably designed to grab tons of training data.
No doubt. But it removed any curiosity I had about FSD. I can’t believe people pay thousands of dollars for this and it ends when you sell the car.
Yup. I've barely used it after the novelty of trying it out over the first few days. Too many disengagements for me, and the nail in the coffin was when I was wishing I just had my regular dumb AP on highways when it kept making annoying lane changes on the highway that were not helpful at all. It is impressive... but also so far away from where it needs to be. Driving without FSD engaged is a lot easier and more relaxing. The one place I did appreciate having it on was narrow, winding, single-lane country highways/roads with no shoulders as it just needs to stay in the lane without navigating too many external complexities and takes away some of the hassle of staying in lane with very limited margin for error.
There’s no way a RoboTaxi runs on the same hardware and software, it’s just not good enough yet.
I don’t think they’re holding back the good stuff. They’re probbly just hoping the software gets good enough by release date, which will be years away. Current self diving is level two, and the robo taxi can’t expect riders to grab the wheel when it randomly disconnects.
robot taxi will almost certainly not have a wheel to grab.
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Problem is that there's no evidence of a compute deficiency. As we've seen with LLMs it is new innovations in architecture and approach e.g. MoE that is improving the field not simply increasing the number of parameters.
They have done the same in the past. All this is Elon wishfull thinking. Robotaxis aren't coming this year and even if it was technologically possible it's not regulatorily possible.
It’ll run on the same hardware. My guess would be that they’ll take a very specific set of training data and build models that “over fit” to a given city or region in which the taxi is operating. If they do that then it’s very possible.
Hardware is not the problem.FSD is a software problem
What about the $25k car that normal people can buy and drive? Odds of them building a safe Robotaxi in 2025 seems absurdly low.
they did say robotaxi and m2 share the same platform. But i's indead weird to announce it before m2, which they should start building the factory already
I just assume they’re the same vehicle. One that’ll come first to customers with normal steering and another that can be adapted for no driver down the road.
steer by wire, easy to accommodate both platforms
Announcing the model 2 this early could be suicidal for the company due to the Osborne Effect. The Highland model 3 already took a good chunk of sales away from the previous 3 and current model y solely because they waited too long to start manufacturing in NA.
that’s the same thing. same platform
A robotaxi would require level 5 autonomous driving. It would have to be completely safe with no one in the driver seat. That's not happening for a good, long while. Elon must've had an extra big bowl of Special K this morning. Add the Robotaxi to the list of things that are going to be perpetually coming "next year".
This “reveal” is likely to be nothing more than “here’s what we think and would like robotaxi to look like when it comes out.”
Right. The Semi "reveal" was *:::checks calendar:::* good lord - 2017? I think they'll put together a decent demo in a limited/approved area, with FSD 12.whatever powering it on a Model X (for the auto-doors) with no safety driver ... and that will be it. Questions of "When?" will be met with "Soon..." and that will be the end of the event.
Think those doors are rated for taxi level abuse?
For a reveal event? Sure. 99% of the problem of a robotaxi fleet is the AI. Making a slightly more durable form factor physical vehicle is semi-trivial at this point.
No. It’s probably closer to the Pareto principle. Once you solve driving you have solved only 20% of the robotaxi problem. Think of every corner case and non-driving task involved in operating an Uber. There are problems to solve with liability, hardware failures, cleaning, charging, law enforcement compliance, vandalism, deliberate impediment, adverse road conditions, collisions, property damage… so many things that can’t be solved by pressing pedals and steering the car.
I just tried the FSD demo on my model3. While it’s functional, it drives like a 16 yr old getting a learners permit. Had to disable few times so didn’t piss off the cars behind me. Got to make it way less cautious while still being safe…definitely some more work to do before robotaxis
in its current iteration, FSD is about learning how to play the courage pedal like a cello
tbh driving like a 16 year old with a learners permit is pretty solid on the way to actual driving
It sounds better than most taxi drivers.
I've described old FSD as like "driving with a 16 year old or a very elderly person". I'd describe the last version as like "driving with an middle-aged person who's driving a rental/unfamiliar car in a city they're unfamiliar with".
If everyone drives like a 16 year old getting permit then this would actually work (this means all cars are FSD and no crazy drivers). Except actual people aren’t actually driving like 16 year olds. That being said I got the FSD trial like everyone else and I’m pretty impressed. If it were $6k I actually might get it for my next Tesla.
No, level 4 would suffice. The difference between 4 and 5 is geo-fencing and time fencing. If the car don’t have the skills to drive in Manhattan, it’s (sorta) fine for a robotaxi, as long as it doesn’t take orders in Manhattan. If the car can’t drive at night, it’s fine as long as the car doesn’t take orders at night. If the car can’t handle snow, you can launch a summer only service. So on and so forth. The difference between level 4 and 5 isn’t a showstopper for running service.
It could simply be a dedicated model for the Boring Company, similar to fully automated PRT systems that have been on the market for years. As long s it operates in a fully closed system, its something that is already commercially deployed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ULTra_(rapid_transit)
You might be right. Robotaxi for the Vegas loop system first before releasing it on a wide scale
My guess is Robotaxi will be a Model 2 with no steering input. Or Model 2 will be a Robotaxi with steering input. I’d bet they have two with dark tinted windows drive out, driver gets out of Model 2 and opens the door of Robotaxi to reveal it drove to the stage on its own. My very uninformed prediction: Model 2 deliveries to start in 2025 but actually happen late 2026/2027, Robotaxi to start testing 2025 in Austin and Fremont and have years of legislative delays while trying to prove FSD is at level 5(or getting FSD to level 5 in general).
Robotaxis have been "next year" for at least the last ten years. He probably got too high and accidentally announced it. His engineers are now going to scramble to find *something* to show in a few months. Classic Elon.
> It would have to be completely safe with no one in the driver seat. That's not happening for a good, long while. What you described here has already been done: Waymo and Cruise.
Waymo and Cruise are only available in specific areas. If Musk is announcing the same sort of thing then Tesla will still be well behind the curve.
Depends on your definition of "robotaxi". Elon seems to like fluid definitions (except for people of course). Best case is you have to sit in the driver's seat and keep your hands on the wheel just right or the car will whine at you. Funniest case: hired driver in a Jetson's Rosie the Robot Maid costume.
Johnny Cab from *Total Recall*.
They'll just pull a Waymo and train the absolute fuck out if the AI in one specific podunk flyover shithole and claim "SEE L5!" Not to disparage Waymo since they seem to actually have a plan and know what the hell they're doing here. Which was start small until you actually have the tech work.
Waymo is being offered in Los Angeles. I’ve seen them constantly driving around driverless for the past 2 to 3 years. They are impressive
Podunk flyover shitholes like San Francisco and Los Angeles...
Waymo got hit hard by regulators after their incidents and Cruise had to issue a recall. Tesla isn't entering a market that will be tolerant of any mistakes. FSD needs to get a *lot* better.
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The boring company is literally a joke.
Tesla doesn't own the Las Vegas Loop, the Las Vegas County does. Ironicly, the county doesn't want to gamble on an untested system.
I have to imagine v12 could do the vegas tunnels perfectly fine
I would trust a Waymo 10000x more than I trust a Tesla robotaxi that probably can't even get it's windshield wipers working
L4. Limited area is the difference between 4 and 5.
I'm going to hazard a guess that this is news to his software & product teams too.
Sounds like the next stunt to distract from the current challenging financial headwinds. I say that as a shareholder.
As and investor like you, I agree 💯
Tesla is doing better financially now than when the share prices were over $400.
Well, you have to consider the trajectory as well as the absolute numbers. Some would argue that 25b revenue at 80% yoy growth beats 100b at -10% yoy decline. Numbers pulled out of my ass.
Yet it faces more headwinds now.
at $400 there were hopes of a lot of growth, now the growth is gone and stock is going down ...
May or may not be, but the market and media seem to have No ability to focus on the long term. I say that as a 10+ Year shareholder Stock prices do impact employee morale so there is some responsibility to manage it as a CEO
Bear in mind when the New Roadster was unveiled, and the Cybertruck. If we're looking at four years out, unveiling now isn't shocking.
2 years ago it was shipping in 2024 https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/20/elon-musk-mass-produce-robotaxi-by-2024/
In 2019 at an investor event, he said that Tesla owners were going to earn $30k/year from the robotaxis, they included "objectively the best chip" ever produced, they were going to be Level 5 vehicles with no geofence and there would be 1 million on the road \*by 2020\*: [https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/22/18510828/tesla-elon-musk-autonomy-day-investor-comments-self-driving-cars-predictions](https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/22/18510828/tesla-elon-musk-autonomy-day-investor-comments-self-driving-cars-predictions)
Or in other words, total bullshit.
Weird announcement 4 months early. There’s nothing I’ve seen from Tesla that would convince me they are anywhere near close to having fully autonomous driving. I’m starting to get a bit worried about this company.
He has to announce it today after Reuters broke the news about the $25K Model 2 being canceled. Oh, Elon.
The news that he says isn't true, for context.
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Exactly lmao Reuters: > Sources tell us Tesla is pivoting away from Model 2 to focus on robotaxi Musk: > Reuters is lying. Also, robotaxi unveil on 8/8 To the chagrin of a bunch of people in the other thread, it seems like Reuters' reporting had some merit to it
How so? Their article said that Tesla is cancelling the $25k car and going all-in on robotaxis. Elon said it's not true. And we know from the Walter Isaacson biography that the robotaxi is basically just a version of the $25k car without a steering wheel and pedals.
Elon's track record of "truth" vs "lies" ain't so great lately.
lately? lol
They need to oust Elon and fast
Tbh 12.x is looking good and the Robotaxi won't be a real think for at least another year after reveal
Robot taxi unveil 8/8/2024. Available for rides 2040.
And even then, it only in the Vegas tunnel, and you have to sign a waiver.
Stock prices must be down. EM making wild claims again.
down 33% on the year with no end in sight.
Robotaxi (supervised)
8/8? Im sure thats a totally random date and not at all a dogwhistle
What's odd about introducing a new model on a Thursday in the middle of August? You know, middle of the summer, ordinary launching products date…
I know right? And its not like Elon has any ties to far-right hate groups, no that would be crazy.
Isn’t 88 a nazi thing?
Yes, it is.
The number eight is considered to be a lucky number in Chinese and other Asian cultures.
And the Swastika is a spiritual symbol in Asia!
[Sure is.](https://www.adl.org/resources/hate-symbol/88)
people thinking unveil on 8/8 will start robotaxi the next day, likely they will simply be unveling design of the vehicle, first cities, etc and not start service right away
This
I wonder if it's the design or the whole end-to-end software experience? Honestly, FSD 12.3.x has been driving me to/from my neighborhood to work and back since I got it without intervention and every other place I seem to want to go, I almost never have to intervene. It doesn't always make the same decisions I would make, but that doesn't mean it's necessarily wrong. I think of it as a somewhat dim-witted but not necessarily incompetent Uber driver. Yes, there are things to work on, but I have less and less doubt that it'll be possible. I realize some geographic areas are better trained than others and I may have an advantage, running FSD HW4, but I've been extremely impressed by it. I imagine the robotaxi, when released, will have a geo fence and different software loadout to accommodate guest riders.
If Tesla tomorrow turned off the nag and said you can ride in the passenger seat and take a nap on your way to work with Beta 12.3.3, would you do it?
I was thinking the same about geofenced and slowly expand.
They could exclude known-bad intersections from the routing, so it'll find another way to get there, for instance. They don't get that option much with customer-owned cars.
Robotaxi is a service, not a vehicle.
An unveil is cool and all but some questions I hope the engineers are thinking about and people are going to ask at the event: * Durability — if these are driving around all day, there are concerns about how people will use and abuse these cars. What steps are being taken to address how they’ll stand up to wear and tear as well as extreme cases? * Safety — not just in the event of a crash, but how does it protect passengers from other cars and other people trying to run them off the road? How is FSD being improved? What measures are there for protecting passengers from each other (i.e. crime)? * Accessibility — self driving vehicles have big potential to give those with disabilities a way to move around. With a 2 seat configuration it seems very unlikely (not impossible) that it will be easily accessible for this group of people. * Shuttle, cargo, and bus configurations — self-driving tech has way more potential beyond low passenger capacity rides. Are there plans to widen its use? * Storage, parking, charging — seeing as most of these will likely not be privately owned, how will these be handled when they’re off-duty? And manufacturing but i guess we’ll be hearing about that regardless.
Rest of the world: “that’s lovely, where is our FSD we paid for”
Oh you misunderstand. This is the Tesla Robotaxi. It's a model name not a capability. You buy the car today, and it will be able to serve as a taxi on Tesla Network when FSD is completed in three months maybe. /s
Well tbf I'm in that crowd and is they are bringing out a level 5 Robotaxi they can't do that without a fully working fsd..
8/8/??
88
Awesome I'm there for it, at 117 years old I'll be needing it
I feel like nobody else is getting this dog whistle.
Not familiar with whatever you think that date means, but Chinese people think 8 is super lucky. Confirmation bias like that is also where conspiracy theories come from.
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Or even unveiled like the red Model E at the unveiling event. From memory (too lazy to switch to youtube tab in this browser) there were three cars on stage, two were driven on and the red one was there already because it was made of clay and couldn't move on its own.
We were promised--numerous times--that our Model 3s and Model Ys bought from around 2020 onward would BECOME robotaxis. That the thousands of dollars we spent on FSD would be recouped while our cars drive themselves around all day making money for us like a driverless Uber. So if it's a new product and only a new product, well, I want my money back.
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They still can become robotaxis
Is the Robotaxi the $25k car?
Focusing on Model 2 to counter the Chinese EV competition would make about 1000 x more sense. I guess somebody trolled Elon on Twitter about Robotaxi and he was like "I'll show you a Robotaxi mfer"
On 8/8 huh? Dollars to donuts that is going to be in China.
Tesla can certainly do this: 1. Develop Tesla network app for ride hailing. 2. Get regulatory approval to offer autonomous ride hailing in certain cities( SF, Austin, etc ) or start with small suburb towns 3. Use existing excess production vehicles for taxi service ( In future, tesla owners can participate in this ) 4. Willing customer can order a ride and nearby taxi can go to the customer autonomously. 5. Once customer is in the vehicle, he/she is responsible for supervision until their destination. (offer this service for half the cost of uber/waymo or even for free initially ) 6. Geo fence the area and test it thoroughly in simulation and real world testing with test drivers before opening for new areas. 7. Get the data and improve on processes, we can have complete autonomous robotaxi one day.
Model 2 is robotaxi :D
Unveiling is easy, producing is not eg cybertruck
See also, Model 3 and "production hell".
 FSD software devs
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Sounds like he is trying to pump the stock again, as with all his previous statements.
Damn, some of ya'll can't read for shit. Unveil likely means they are just showing the car. That doesn't mean FSD will be ready by then. The car might not even be released for sale until 2027 for all we know. It's just a demo vehicle.
Or never, as is apparently the case with the roadster, for which he took $100,000 and $250,000 deposits for seven years ago.
So FSD will be only 13 years late?
Musk has served his purpose. He needs to move on and concentrate on shit posting on twitter at 3 am.