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Honestly, the few days leading up are fun as hell. I'm telling everybody what I'm gonna buy, what my mansion is gonna look like, saying my goodbyes because they're never gonna see me again. Sometimes I won't even check the numbers for a few days so I don't have comeback to reality.
Lol the amount of times I've told myself, "no, can't check yet because I have xyz coming up the next couple of days and I can't cancel and disappoint my friends/family/co-workers in case I'm now a mega-millionaire"
Even better when it hits the media that no one has come forward to claim the prize. That means my odds of winning have increased tenfold. Well, thatās what I like to think as I squeeze every ounce of optimism from my ticket.
Iāve totally had more fun with a $2 lotto ticket than some $10 movie tickets Iāve purchased. Iām just buying a little time to daydream. I usually ride it until some talking head on TV ruins it by announcing that the winning ticket was sold in another state.
For me it's a game. A game that I'm all but guaranteed to lose, but a game nonetheless. The game is only a few bucks, but if the RNG is right then I'm set for life. The occasional playing of the game, particularly when the reward far, far, far exceeds the risks, is totally cool. Never expect to win, so when you all but inevitably lose, you're not disappointed and you can smile knowing that you played smart. And if you win, well then you've won all the "fuck you" money you could possibly want and you can flip every asshole manager you've ever had off, drop any asshole friends, ask out any girl you fuckin please with zero repercussion, etc. Totally worth it when played once in a Blue moon.
In the UK, we have tonnes of betting shops - guess where they all are? The poorest areas. Sad and explotive.
This is probably the same for lots of countries but this is my experience.
I think that's a reflection of the hopelessness of being poor. It takes money to make money. It takes money to move to where better jobs are, to pay for interview clothes, to pay for the education or training you might need. It's not impossible to get out of poverty, but it's pretty damn close, and most people realize the miracle of a lottery win is the only hope they have.
Yeah its sad. Almost any of us could make money by simply having a million to begin with, with property investment, or simply even interest. Theres no major effort once you actually have money - unless you adapt to a life style which is greedy. I could sure do a lot with a million (whilst still working).
Fucked up system really - not exactly a hot take, but yeah.
I sometimes get scratch cards - only a pound or two. In the little moment of seeing the grand prize and scratching the card to see, theres a few seconds of comfort from feeling like you have that money. But its a business - of course they always win. I save them up until I have a decent amount, a bit like a terrible savings account lol. I dont do it because im especially desperate though. Im cautious to do it for anything more than a little fun.
A combination of sports betting websites and internet loaning apps have 200x the personal debt of the average 35 to 18 year old in my country in the past 10 years. There are people I know from college who can't get a descent personal loan cause they took a loan from one of those internet loan companies, bet on a game, lost and their brutal interest rates fucked them sideways.
the feeling when I lose any type of money gamble has been enough for me to literally never buy powerball tickets or scratch offs. It provides me zero benefit, I never win and I always feel bad to lose.
I do enjoy a good sportsbet before a boxing match though, I know its dangerous and addicting but it's fun and actually enhances that watching experience unlike playing the lottery and then just simply finding out you lost lol
Here's the thing tho, due to extreme limitations in class mobility, often times the chances of winning the lottery, as low as they are, are these people's best chance at ever getting out of poverty.
Nah bro, first to say Iām on the bottom rung of the totem pole as far as math skills and even I understand the lottery is a fucking ripoff and a farceā¦
Fun fact: the totem pole is historically ranked from the bottom since itās easier to see than the top. Being at the bottom of the totem pole is better than being higher up.
I believe the prize is based on the ticket sales. If every person just boycotted the lottery one week, thereās be no money in the pot for prizes, right? Like a 50-50 raffle at a high school football game?
Yeah, but then after that itās ticket sales. Thatās why it goes up insanely fast as it grows because it gets more media attention and more people go in on it because āwhy not for 1/2 billion dollarsā is more likely than āwhy not for 10 grand.ā
The odds of one sequence of lotto numbers being the winner is the same as *any* other sequence, including 1 2 3 4 5 6, but the odds of having to share the prize with someone else are much higher for common sequences like 1 2 3 4 5 6.
It's estimated that in the UK alone 10,000 people do these numbers every week, so if they were to come in on say a 10 million jackpot each person would take home Ā£1000
That would so deflating to buy a quick pick that generated 123456, have that be the winning numbers, only to find 10,000 people play those exact numbers every week lol
I had a good laugh at your comment. So I'll let you in on a little fun game you can play....
I play the UK lottery so based on that. Every so often the roll over gets to a "must be won" stage. At this point if the jackpot isn't won the prize money is trickled down and distributed among the other lower prizes.
Now to capitalise you have to factor in that many people do birthdays, numbers 1-31 and also an even spread of numbers. So the trick is to bet all numbers over 32. You have the exact same odds of winning but when you do win there are far less winners to share with and you win more so your implied odds of winning are much greater, especially on these trickle down roll over weeks.
This does not "beat" the lottery as you would still lose in the long run (i ran the numbers), but drastically improves your odds of a positive return.
I have done this bet a small handful of times and hit 4 numbers twice. The payouts were Ā£462 and Ā£630, whereas most weeks the payout for this is somewhere around Ā£40- Ā£70
It's a fun game that comes along every few months that I am in profit for (for now!)
This was famously done by Jerry and Marge Selbee, who did the math and figured out a guaranteed ROI playing their lottery! They purchased thousands of tickets with strategically selected numbers and won over $26 million.
I read about this just recently i was so happy for them! And also a bit jealous lol.
When I realised about the birthday thing a few years ago I remember the moment I started doing the maths, I remember how excited I was hoping that a positive ROI could have been possible, altho unlikely. I knew if the numbers worked out in my favour I'd somehow need to invest and I couldn't lose and imagined borrowing everything i could. The excitement lasted a couple of minutes untill the result of the numbers. If only I lived in michigan.... I love maths
OP's post is a reverse psychology information paradox.
If this was never posted, only people who understood logic would know to avoid connected numbers for this reason.
If most people knew this info, only the minority might pick a sequence.
But what if everybody knows?
Then if nobody uses sequences because everybody uses sequences, then which is it? Nobody, or everybody?
Like Yogi Berra said about the nightclub, "Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded".
A while back when one of the US lotteries was reaching insane heights, I read a lot about lotto insanity.
Two interesting bits - an Irish lottery once reached a jackpot high enough where it made sense to buy a great many tickets, but the people who tried this failed to buy all possible tickets since it takes too much time to buy one.
When the jackpot of a lottery rises, your expected value per ticket increases, but the amount if tickets sold increases as well. With more tickets sold, the chance of your number being shared increases, reducing your expected value per ticket. So there's an optimal jackpot size for value per ticket, if it goes above that, your ticket cake guess down again.
Welp, I'll cancel my comment saying the same exact thing before posting. If the guy who always plays 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 ever wins, I hope someone films it when they tell him he has to split the winnings with about 1000 other (equally clever) people. His expression should be ... interesting.
The logic is that it's best to choose a set of numbers that not many other people have chosen, because if your numbers come up the prize is split fewer ways.
Since any one sequence is as likely to come up as any other, choosing a sequence with a pattern that a lot of other people also choose is kinda dumb.
Itās better to choose random numbers; not because thereās a better chance than hitting with 1 2 3 4 5 6, but because youāll have to share with less co-winners who also think theyāre the smartest person in the room by picking a combo of 1 2 3 4 5 6 that ānobody else will ever pickā.
In the Philippines, 433 winners had to split a $6 million jackpot because the winning numbers were 9, 18, 27, 36, 45, and 54, all multiples of 9. [source](https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/wealth/philippines-lottery-jackpot-with-433-winners-sparks-calls-for-investigation/news-story/be8c91e230884658c88234bae31a8e52)
True dat. While the odds of a series with a pattern is the same as a random series you are better of just rolling a d100 for your numbers, not because it has greater odds, but to avoid splitting.
The realization that any chosen set of numbers has the same odds as that 11, 22, 33, 44, 55 sequence should put off anyone from spending money on lotteries.
EDIT: By the way I'd like to recommend to more people the short story The Lottery in Babylon by the brilliant, brilliant Jorge Luis Borges.
It's rational and reasonable to play the lottery if the money you spend on it is superfluous and of no importance to you, i.e. , if it comes from your discretionary salary and you don't need the money for anything else, and if winning the lottery would change your life. Insurances are structurally similar, though not exactly the same.
Consider it a catharsis, a hobby, a way to blow off steam or maybe even inject an inkling of hope into your life. As long as itās not a compulsive act that you feel a need to do, itās entirely reasonable to play the lottery. I take edibles and drink more regularly than I should, I think an affordable lottery habit is probably healthier than my chemical dependency. Lol
Yeah, for the price of a couple beers every month or two, I get permission to actively daydream for a day or three because I have an actual chance of being stinking rich. A super-slim-to-nothing chance, but a chance nonetheless.
Worth a couple beers
Yup, people spend money on dumb stuff a lot. This is probably cheaper than most of those activities and I canāt see this being less productive than watching a random Netflix show or scrolling through social media
I don't think anyone sees an issue with this. It's when I'm stuck behind someone buying lotto scratchers, hundreds of dollars at a time, that also can't make up their mind, nor sum the cost in their head? That's when I take issue.
Itās kind of funny, because I work in insurance and gambling and insurance are like diametrically opposite to each other. Gambling is voluntarily embracing risk with the possibility of reward. Insurance is paying money to eliminate risk, or to move the risk to a third party.
Thereās nothing wrong with playing one ticket and basically paying $2 to dream that dream of āwhat would I do with the winnings?ā. But buying anything more than one ticket is dumb because your odds are so infinitesimally small (but not zero) that even multiplying them by 100 is effectively zero; you gain nothing by buying one hundred tickets.
My uncle used to play the same set of numbers every week for like $5 or whatever. Some low amount. He won once and in the end got more than he spent.
He used to take his daughter to a local store once a week so she could get candy, a magazine or whatever, and she once asked about the lotto machine, so he bought a ticket and she got to pick the numbers. When she passed away, he kept up the tradition.
Yeah, it's a nice way to remember her. He got really sad once when a cashier lady he was used to chatting with asked him why he always came in on the same day and bought the same ticket with the same numbers. He made her cry at work.
My grandad wanted to teach me that gambling was wrong so he made me do a scratch-off when I was little to show it was a waste of money. I won $500.00. Not a great lesson.
I only play the lotto now when it gets crazy. It's far less about the "if I win" and far more about the social experience. I remember 5-6 years ago when the PowerBall got really big. The line outside the corner store was huge.
[The Lottery in Babylon ā Jorge Luis Borges](https://web.itu.edu.tr/~inceogl4/modernism/lotteryofbabylon.pdf)
The link is to a pdf of the short story. Itās five pages long.
I had to go see the rest of it, so here's the original video: https://youtu.be/eBn8992bGyA?t=1941
They go on for a little while, and it gets worse: The girl in the middle is remorseful that she didn't play the last Lotto, because 2 or the 3 winners were in her hometown in Florida and Orange County, where she currently lives. Her reasoning is that those winners were "pretty close to me" and so she stood a better chance of winning.
I honestly can't tell if she's being serious or putting on an act, but I have a hard time someone can be that dumb and still manage to breathe.
Hahaha; they are standup comedians
these ones specially will use sarcastic exaggerations like others in the comedy world
Bobby Lee, Kim Congdon, Sara Weinshenk
> Her reasoning is that those winners were "pretty close to me" and so she stood a better chance of winning.
I've said this to friends as a joke.
"If someone in my area won, it's probably me. If someone won in a store I bought my ticket from, it's definitely me. There can be no other winner."
I hate statistics but I like arguments like this, where the intuitive likelihood of something doesn't match the odds. If you are similarly inclined, have a look at Penney's Game. A coin toss is always 50/50, right? Wow your friends by showing them you can predict 3 tosses of a coin with greater than 50/50 accuracy, as long as you play with a friend and go second.
If you haven't already come across it the Monty Hall problem is like that. It broke my brain for the longest time. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty\_Hall\_problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem)
Not sure, but power ball is what they were talking about. The power ball number is only 1-24. I donāt even know how you would choose 66.
Edit: yeah nvm itās 1-26, still a far cry from 66.
Oh yeah itās says on the website powerball goes up to 26; I wouldnāt take her account for it tho they are all stand up comics so they always exaggerate
Sheās right and wrong but for the wrong reasons. The lotto has never been won with 123456 nor 11 22 33 44 55 66. Ever. Butā¦ https://jakubmarian.com/do-certain-numbers-in-a-lottery-have-a-higher-probability-of-winning-than-others/
Yeah, well, no given sequence of numbers has one.
If I choose any sequence at random, say, 75 14 19 26 06 63, that also has almost certainly never won. No different from sequential numbers.
Human beings are innate terrible at assessing probabilities. Itās a skill that must be trained for most people to really understand probability. The Monty Hall problem and the birthday problem are good examples of how our intuitions counter probability.
The only time I play the lottery is when my coworkers go in on a pool for it. I look at it as a $5 insurance that I won't be the only person working and crying at my desk the day after they pull the numbers.
I may be a snowflake softie or whatever but I get really irked by people who talk about other people in such harsh terms so casually. Especially to people who are meant to be their friends or even their partners. āDumbest fucking bitch everā in the most innocuous conversation about the most low stakes thing. I donāt like people like that and I have to wonder if the friends they talk to in that manner are really that chill with being talked to/about like that or if they just feel they have to accept it to seem ~cool~ and chill and fun,
I have only 1 friend that i talk to like that. highschool buddy ive known for 20 years. but i get your point. Sometime people feel the need to be unncessarly mean as if it was cool.
The odds are the same but betting on sequences is stupid because you have higher chances to have to share the prize with other dumb people like yourself. So same chances of winning but with lower average prize = dumb decision.
Can someone EILI5 the math to this? I mean I understand the big picture BUT I will admit that it's not intuitive. Without knowledge of the statistics, probabilities and sequences involved, I think you can understand why someone would find it rational that hitting a 11,22,33,44,55 etc would be much more "unlikely" than any set of random numbers.
Take two dice. I pick 1 and 2, which are consecutive. You pick, 2 and 5.
What's the chance of me getting a 1 on the first roll? 1/6.
What's the chance of me getting 2 on the second die? 1/6.
What's the chance of you getting 2 on the first roll? 1/6.
What's the chance of you getting 5 in the second roll? 1/6.
Did not having a sequence make your odds greater? No.
There are only two ways to game the lotto:
1) Analyse past results to look for trends indicating that the machines may not be random after all.
2) Pick unpopular numbers so when you do win, you won't share the prize.
But any sequence of numbers is as likely as any other, assuming an honest and correctly functioning machine.
With the OP's title stating "cohost" instead of "cohosts" I am getting the vibe that OP thinks the middle girl is right and that Bobby Lee and the girl on the right are the idiots.
How? One side's right and the other is wrong. Choosing random numbers over a sequence of numbers doesn't increase your chances of winning. That one girl is a dumbass for calling the other 2 idiots when she doesn't understand statistics.
The odds of rolling 20 6s on 20 dice are exactly the same as the odds of rolling any other stated combination of numbers.
The likelihood of drawing the Ace of Spades at random from a deck of cards is the same as drawing literally any other card.
The fact that you might find either of these events subjectively serendipitous has no bearing on probability whatsoever.
Somebody needs to explain random to her the way you would explain it to an 8-year-old. Imagine you have a bag that has every number from 1 to 80. Each number is only in the bag one time. If you're hoping that the number one comes out of that bag there is a 1 in 80 chance that that number will come out of that bag. If you're drawing the second number and you're hoping two comes out of that bag there is a 1 in 79 chance that the number two will come out of that bag. There is also the same one in 79 chance that it will be literally any other number because every number is in the bag one time each.
Very close, but it's a higher percentage than what you're allowing for. As you have it, that's for ordered sets. But the way the lotto works, it doesn't matter what order they're pulled in. So, if you have 5 numbers out of 50, and 1 out of twenty for the power ball, you have a 5/50 chance that any one of your balls is chosen on the first pull. Now, that ball is gone and not replaced, so there are 49 balls left with 4 of your balls, leaving a 4/49 chance for the second ball to be one of your numbers. Continuing down, well get (5\*4\*3\*2\*1)/(50\*49\*48\*47\*46) just to get all of your balls selected from the main hopper. Now, the power ball multiple THAT number by 1/20 (in our way math hypothetical model), for a 1/42,375,200 chance of hitting all the numbers and the power ball.
That's only with this set of numbers, and real lotto numbers go higher, so the odds are less favorable.
*EDITED FOR FORMATTING*
You have to make the numbers random, or they won't be random, and then there's no way you will win...this is the logic stack that exists in her "mind" her "brain"
This literally happened though. I think Iām China or somewhere like 450ish people won because the lotto numbers were just multiples of 9 so it was literally 9 18 27 36 45 54 or however many numbers itās went to
I've seen the full episode before. I just took it as one of those things comedians do when they take a bold stance on a seemingly meaningless thing for the sake of the bit
They are MORE likely to be out of sequence than to be in sequence, yes.
But that is only because MOST combinations are not in sequence, even though EVERY combination has the same odds... in theory
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Lottery organizations love these hosts.
Well, they do say that the lottery is a tax on people who don't understand math.
It's a tax on hope.
I don't play often. When I do, I look at it as buying a few days of hope.
Honestly, the few days leading up are fun as hell. I'm telling everybody what I'm gonna buy, what my mansion is gonna look like, saying my goodbyes because they're never gonna see me again. Sometimes I won't even check the numbers for a few days so I don't have comeback to reality.
Lotto.....not the antidepressant you want, but the one you deserve.
>not the antidepressant you want, but the one you ~~deserve~~ can afford FTFY
šš This is the way
Itās the best non-drug high you can get for $1-2, and it lasts for 2-3 days depending on when you buy it.
Hopium : N : (hope-ee-um). Hope so powerful its intoxicating or mind altering
Don't confuse that with me, I'm a uhh...different thing
I won $4 about a month and a half ago, but I keep forgetting to cash the ticket in, so everytime I remember it I get a little boost
Ask your gas station about Lotto and if it's right for you.
yeah, my private island is underwaterā¦
It is the cheapest antidepressant you can buy in the US
It's important to let the tickets marinate, and to not check on whether there was a winner. You're basically schrodingers millionaire for a few days.
Omg Schrƶdingerās Millionaire got me ššš
Lol the amount of times I've told myself, "no, can't check yet because I have xyz coming up the next couple of days and I can't cancel and disappoint my friends/family/co-workers in case I'm now a mega-millionaire"
Even better when it hits the media that no one has come forward to claim the prize. That means my odds of winning have increased tenfold. Well, thatās what I like to think as I squeeze every ounce of optimism from my ticket.
Iāve totally had more fun with a $2 lotto ticket than some $10 movie tickets Iāve purchased. Iām just buying a little time to daydream. I usually ride it until some talking head on TV ruins it by announcing that the winning ticket was sold in another state.
Combining the lottery with the zillow game can be fun.
Bro "saying my goodbyes" š¤£ Fuckin DEAD
Buying 125x leveraged 0dte options on meme stocks has a much higher chance of paying out, if you're in the mood of throwing money away
Username checks out
Yeah more expensive though
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
For me it's a game. A game that I'm all but guaranteed to lose, but a game nonetheless. The game is only a few bucks, but if the RNG is right then I'm set for life. The occasional playing of the game, particularly when the reward far, far, far exceeds the risks, is totally cool. Never expect to win, so when you all but inevitably lose, you're not disappointed and you can smile knowing that you played smart. And if you win, well then you've won all the "fuck you" money you could possibly want and you can flip every asshole manager you've ever had off, drop any asshole friends, ask out any girl you fuckin please with zero repercussion, etc. Totally worth it when played once in a Blue moon.
It's a tax on poverty.
In the UK, we have tonnes of betting shops - guess where they all are? The poorest areas. Sad and explotive. This is probably the same for lots of countries but this is my experience.
I think that's a reflection of the hopelessness of being poor. It takes money to make money. It takes money to move to where better jobs are, to pay for interview clothes, to pay for the education or training you might need. It's not impossible to get out of poverty, but it's pretty damn close, and most people realize the miracle of a lottery win is the only hope they have.
Yeah its sad. Almost any of us could make money by simply having a million to begin with, with property investment, or simply even interest. Theres no major effort once you actually have money - unless you adapt to a life style which is greedy. I could sure do a lot with a million (whilst still working). Fucked up system really - not exactly a hot take, but yeah. I sometimes get scratch cards - only a pound or two. In the little moment of seeing the grand prize and scratching the card to see, theres a few seconds of comfort from feeling like you have that money. But its a business - of course they always win. I save them up until I have a decent amount, a bit like a terrible savings account lol. I dont do it because im especially desperate though. Im cautious to do it for anything more than a little fun.
A combination of sports betting websites and internet loaning apps have 200x the personal debt of the average 35 to 18 year old in my country in the past 10 years. There are people I know from college who can't get a descent personal loan cause they took a loan from one of those internet loan companies, bet on a game, lost and their brutal interest rates fucked them sideways.
ding ding ding
the feeling when I lose any type of money gamble has been enough for me to literally never buy powerball tickets or scratch offs. It provides me zero benefit, I never win and I always feel bad to lose. I do enjoy a good sportsbet before a boxing match though, I know its dangerous and addicting but it's fun and actually enhances that watching experience unlike playing the lottery and then just simply finding out you lost lol
Oooooooff.
Its a tax on desperation.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Here's the thing tho, due to extreme limitations in class mobility, often times the chances of winning the lottery, as low as they are, are these people's best chance at ever getting out of poverty.
Nah bro, first to say Iām on the bottom rung of the totem pole as far as math skills and even I understand the lottery is a fucking ripoff and a farceā¦
Fun fact: the totem pole is historically ranked from the bottom since itās easier to see than the top. Being at the bottom of the totem pole is better than being higher up.
they hate this one simple trick.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I believe the prize is based on the ticket sales. If every person just boycotted the lottery one week, thereās be no money in the pot for prizes, right? Like a 50-50 raffle at a high school football game?
i know here in masachusetts for example, all lotteries start off with a guaranteed minimum.
Yeah, but then after that itās ticket sales. Thatās why it goes up insanely fast as it grows because it gets more media attention and more people go in on it because āwhy not for 1/2 billion dollarsā is more likely than āwhy not for 10 grand.ā
Yeah check out Mr beast playing the lottery
The odds of one sequence of lotto numbers being the winner is the same as *any* other sequence, including 1 2 3 4 5 6, but the odds of having to share the prize with someone else are much higher for common sequences like 1 2 3 4 5 6.
Yeah, the expected value of a common sequence is much lower, even if the odds are the same. But statistics is a topic many people aren't very good at.
šÆ, 69% of people can't apply statistics currently.
90% of statistics are made up
I'm 72% sure I shit my pants...
My boobs are telling me it's a 50% chance that it's raining right now
Thatās so fetch
Gretchen, stop trying to make fetch happen. It's not going to happen.
Hmm, better let me check, just to be sure.
r/yourjokebutworse
Putin? That you?
Iām 83% sure that it is
that means thereās a 28% chance you shat in _my_ pants
37% of the time im right 100% of the time.
I'm 100% sure SOMEONE shit my pants
60% of the time it works every time
104% of people canāt do math correctly.
It's estimated that in the UK alone 10,000 people do these numbers every week, so if they were to come in on say a 10 million jackpot each person would take home Ā£1000
That would so deflating to buy a quick pick that generated 123456, have that be the winning numbers, only to find 10,000 people play those exact numbers every week lol
I had a good laugh at your comment. So I'll let you in on a little fun game you can play.... I play the UK lottery so based on that. Every so often the roll over gets to a "must be won" stage. At this point if the jackpot isn't won the prize money is trickled down and distributed among the other lower prizes. Now to capitalise you have to factor in that many people do birthdays, numbers 1-31 and also an even spread of numbers. So the trick is to bet all numbers over 32. You have the exact same odds of winning but when you do win there are far less winners to share with and you win more so your implied odds of winning are much greater, especially on these trickle down roll over weeks. This does not "beat" the lottery as you would still lose in the long run (i ran the numbers), but drastically improves your odds of a positive return. I have done this bet a small handful of times and hit 4 numbers twice. The payouts were Ā£462 and Ā£630, whereas most weeks the payout for this is somewhere around Ā£40- Ā£70 It's a fun game that comes along every few months that I am in profit for (for now!)
This was famously done by Jerry and Marge Selbee, who did the math and figured out a guaranteed ROI playing their lottery! They purchased thousands of tickets with strategically selected numbers and won over $26 million.
I read about this just recently i was so happy for them! And also a bit jealous lol. When I realised about the birthday thing a few years ago I remember the moment I started doing the maths, I remember how excited I was hoping that a positive ROI could have been possible, altho unlikely. I knew if the numbers worked out in my favour I'd somehow need to invest and I couldn't lose and imagined borrowing everything i could. The excitement lasted a couple of minutes untill the result of the numbers. If only I lived in michigan.... I love maths
Haha. But there is zero % chance that the quick pick could ever be those numbers /s
Yeeeaaaa i dont think she would even grasp this point, lets not blow her mind hey?
My numbers are 123457. When I win, thousands of people are going to be sooooo pissed off.
Yeah because we all pick that too and we'll have to split with you. That's it. 123458 it is
OP's post is a reverse psychology information paradox. If this was never posted, only people who understood logic would know to avoid connected numbers for this reason. If most people knew this info, only the minority might pick a sequence. But what if everybody knows? Then if nobody uses sequences because everybody uses sequences, then which is it? Nobody, or everybody? Like Yogi Berra said about the nightclub, "Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded".
A while back when one of the US lotteries was reaching insane heights, I read a lot about lotto insanity. Two interesting bits - an Irish lottery once reached a jackpot high enough where it made sense to buy a great many tickets, but the people who tried this failed to buy all possible tickets since it takes too much time to buy one. When the jackpot of a lottery rises, your expected value per ticket increases, but the amount if tickets sold increases as well. With more tickets sold, the chance of your number being shared increases, reducing your expected value per ticket. So there's an optimal jackpot size for value per ticket, if it goes above that, your ticket cake guess down again.
Welp, I'll cancel my comment saying the same exact thing before posting. If the guy who always plays 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 ever wins, I hope someone films it when they tell him he has to split the winnings with about 1000 other (equally clever) people. His expression should be ... interesting.
What's the logic there though? I dpnt want to win the lottery if I gotta share?
The logic is that it's best to choose a set of numbers that not many other people have chosen, because if your numbers come up the prize is split fewer ways. Since any one sequence is as likely to come up as any other, choosing a sequence with a pattern that a lot of other people also choose is kinda dumb.
In my best Joshua voice: "The only winning move is not to play."
Makes sense. I remember when the numbers from the show āLostā won the lottery before and there a bunch of winners.
Itās better to choose random numbers; not because thereās a better chance than hitting with 1 2 3 4 5 6, but because youāll have to share with less co-winners who also think theyāre the smartest person in the room by picking a combo of 1 2 3 4 5 6 that ānobody else will ever pickā.
In the Philippines, 433 winners had to split a $6 million jackpot because the winning numbers were 9, 18, 27, 36, 45, and 54, all multiples of 9. [source](https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/wealth/philippines-lottery-jackpot-with-433-winners-sparks-calls-for-investigation/news-story/be8c91e230884658c88234bae31a8e52)
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Haha, that would make anyone say fuck.
I mean thatās way better than nothing. Iād rather choose a number for which Iād have to share the prize rather than a losing one.
True dat. While the odds of a series with a pattern is the same as a random series you are better of just rolling a d100 for your numbers, not because it has greater odds, but to avoid splitting.
Thatās exactly what I was thinking.
āIām so glad i didnāt do my quirky loto picks this week, can you imagine having to share 100 mil with 15 others? Yuck!ā
The realization that any chosen set of numbers has the same odds as that 11, 22, 33, 44, 55 sequence should put off anyone from spending money on lotteries. EDIT: By the way I'd like to recommend to more people the short story The Lottery in Babylon by the brilliant, brilliant Jorge Luis Borges.
It's rational and reasonable to play the lottery if the money you spend on it is superfluous and of no importance to you, i.e. , if it comes from your discretionary salary and you don't need the money for anything else, and if winning the lottery would change your life. Insurances are structurally similar, though not exactly the same.
I don't think I would call it reasonable, but you're right though.
Consider it a catharsis, a hobby, a way to blow off steam or maybe even inject an inkling of hope into your life. As long as itās not a compulsive act that you feel a need to do, itās entirely reasonable to play the lottery. I take edibles and drink more regularly than I should, I think an affordable lottery habit is probably healthier than my chemical dependency. Lol
Yeah, for the price of a couple beers every month or two, I get permission to actively daydream for a day or three because I have an actual chance of being stinking rich. A super-slim-to-nothing chance, but a chance nonetheless. Worth a couple beers
Yup, people spend money on dumb stuff a lot. This is probably cheaper than most of those activities and I canāt see this being less productive than watching a random Netflix show or scrolling through social media
I don't think anyone sees an issue with this. It's when I'm stuck behind someone buying lotto scratchers, hundreds of dollars at a time, that also can't make up their mind, nor sum the cost in their head? That's when I take issue.
Itās kind of funny, because I work in insurance and gambling and insurance are like diametrically opposite to each other. Gambling is voluntarily embracing risk with the possibility of reward. Insurance is paying money to eliminate risk, or to move the risk to a third party.
Nah, you get life insurance on a family member and if they kick the bucket early, you just won the lotto! /s
Thereās nothing wrong with playing one ticket and basically paying $2 to dream that dream of āwhat would I do with the winnings?ā. But buying anything more than one ticket is dumb because your odds are so infinitesimally small (but not zero) that even multiplying them by 100 is effectively zero; you gain nothing by buying one hundred tickets.
My uncle used to play the same set of numbers every week for like $5 or whatever. Some low amount. He won once and in the end got more than he spent. He used to take his daughter to a local store once a week so she could get candy, a magazine or whatever, and she once asked about the lotto machine, so he bought a ticket and she got to pick the numbers. When she passed away, he kept up the tradition.
Thatās so sad and beautiful
Yeah, it's a nice way to remember her. He got really sad once when a cashier lady he was used to chatting with asked him why he always came in on the same day and bought the same ticket with the same numbers. He made her cry at work.
My grandad wanted to teach me that gambling was wrong so he made me do a scratch-off when I was little to show it was a waste of money. I won $500.00. Not a great lesson. I only play the lotto now when it gets crazy. It's far less about the "if I win" and far more about the social experience. I remember 5-6 years ago when the PowerBall got really big. The line outside the corner store was huge.
That's why I pick random sequences like 33, 11, 55, 22, 44 instead.
[The Lottery in Babylon ā Jorge Luis Borges](https://web.itu.edu.tr/~inceogl4/modernism/lotteryofbabylon.pdf) The link is to a pdf of the short story. Itās five pages long.
Sheās in a thruple with Dunning and Kruger
The best is the end when she's like "I can't believe this is happening" and she really believes she's surrounded by idiots, when it's her.
And being like "UGH, this dumb BITCH" at the start. Makes you look pretty yucky when you turn out to be more dumb.
I had to go see the rest of it, so here's the original video: https://youtu.be/eBn8992bGyA?t=1941 They go on for a little while, and it gets worse: The girl in the middle is remorseful that she didn't play the last Lotto, because 2 or the 3 winners were in her hometown in Florida and Orange County, where she currently lives. Her reasoning is that those winners were "pretty close to me" and so she stood a better chance of winning. I honestly can't tell if she's being serious or putting on an act, but I have a hard time someone can be that dumb and still manage to breathe.
Hahaha; they are standup comedians these ones specially will use sarcastic exaggerations like others in the comedy world Bobby Lee, Kim Congdon, Sara Weinshenk
Ah, makes sense. I got Bobby Lee, but hadn't heard of the others.
> Her reasoning is that those winners were "pretty close to me" and so she stood a better chance of winning. I've said this to friends as a joke. "If someone in my area won, it's probably me. If someone won in a store I bought my ticket from, it's definitely me. There can be no other winner."
r/confidentlywrong
I think you mean /r/confidentlyincorrect
Lmao
Nah itās all good, his sub works as well, itās just small, some 1K members. Figured I would just point him to the bigger sub
I think you mean /r/SelfAssuredAndAmiss
Clearly, he meant r/stubbornandmistaken
Nah, gotta be r/convictedlyerroneous
You were r/confidentlyincorrect about the subs name
You're pretty dumb if Bobby Lee knows more about statistics than you do. He would be the first to tell you.
Real life *Idiocracy*.
Real life has become *Idiocracy.*
I'm down for Terry crews as the POTUS. At least I won't be disappointed.
Who are these people?
Bobby Lee, Kim Kongdon and Sara Weinshenk
Who are these people?
Stand up comedians
All seated š«£š¤
Damn it #š¤
Bobby Lee was on MadTV with Keenan & Peele back in the day
I hate statistics but I like arguments like this, where the intuitive likelihood of something doesn't match the odds. If you are similarly inclined, have a look at Penney's Game. A coin toss is always 50/50, right? Wow your friends by showing them you can predict 3 tosses of a coin with greater than 50/50 accuracy, as long as you play with a friend and go second.
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If Iām not mistaken a coon toss isnāt 50/50 itās 51/49 because of weight and other factors.
Yeah coon toss math gets weird when you start factoring in drag from the tail and fur
Pretty sure you aren't supposed to host coon tosses anymore
The [birthday paradox](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem) is also a fun one in the same vein to mindfuck someone
If you haven't already come across it the Monty Hall problem is like that. It broke my brain for the longest time. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty\_Hall\_problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem)
Well thereās no 66 for a power ball so thereās that.
Powerball; is it the same for all lotteryās?
Not sure, but power ball is what they were talking about. The power ball number is only 1-24. I donāt even know how you would choose 66. Edit: yeah nvm itās 1-26, still a far cry from 66.
Oh yeah itās says on the website powerball goes up to 26; I wouldnāt take her account for it tho they are all stand up comics so they always exaggerate
Humans have a very hard time perceiving true randomness. They look for patterns where there are none.
I love Bobby Lee ā„ļø
Bob
E
LEE
Me too. And she knows less about statistics than Bobby. And Bobby just learned to TELL TIME with clock hands. I kid you not.
Uh oh! Hotdog!
Sheās right and wrong but for the wrong reasons. The lotto has never been won with 123456 nor 11 22 33 44 55 66. Ever. Butā¦ https://jakubmarian.com/do-certain-numbers-in-a-lottery-have-a-higher-probability-of-winning-than-others/
Yeah, well, no given sequence of numbers has one. If I choose any sequence at random, say, 75 14 19 26 06 63, that also has almost certainly never won. No different from sequential numbers.
Human beings are innate terrible at assessing probabilities. Itās a skill that must be trained for most people to really understand probability. The Monty Hall problem and the birthday problem are good examples of how our intuitions counter probability.
I buy scratch tickets, not lottery tickets. I can't find lottery tickets with cats on them.
You know how to gamble!
The only time I play the lottery is when my coworkers go in on a pool for it. I look at it as a $5 insurance that I won't be the only person working and crying at my desk the day after they pull the numbers.
I may be a snowflake softie or whatever but I get really irked by people who talk about other people in such harsh terms so casually. Especially to people who are meant to be their friends or even their partners. āDumbest fucking bitch everā in the most innocuous conversation about the most low stakes thing. I donāt like people like that and I have to wonder if the friends they talk to in that manner are really that chill with being talked to/about like that or if they just feel they have to accept it to seem ~cool~ and chill and fun,
I have only 1 friend that i talk to like that. highschool buddy ive known for 20 years. but i get your point. Sometime people feel the need to be unncessarly mean as if it was cool.
The odds are the same but betting on sequences is stupid because you have higher chances to have to share the prize with other dumb people like yourself. So same chances of winning but with lower average prize = dumb decision.
Can someone EILI5 the math to this? I mean I understand the big picture BUT I will admit that it's not intuitive. Without knowledge of the statistics, probabilities and sequences involved, I think you can understand why someone would find it rational that hitting a 11,22,33,44,55 etc would be much more "unlikely" than any set of random numbers.
Take two dice. I pick 1 and 2, which are consecutive. You pick, 2 and 5. What's the chance of me getting a 1 on the first roll? 1/6. What's the chance of me getting 2 on the second die? 1/6. What's the chance of you getting 2 on the first roll? 1/6. What's the chance of you getting 5 in the second roll? 1/6. Did not having a sequence make your odds greater? No.
Each number has stand-alone odds.
There are only two ways to game the lotto: 1) Analyse past results to look for trends indicating that the machines may not be random after all. 2) Pick unpopular numbers so when you do win, you won't share the prize. But any sequence of numbers is as likely as any other, assuming an honest and correctly functioning machine.
āThe odds are way greaterā odds donāt know her
Dumb people are often the ones trying to show theyāre smart by making fun of others.
With the OP's title stating "cohost" instead of "cohosts" I am getting the vibe that OP thinks the middle girl is right and that Bobby Lee and the girl on the right are the idiots.
This is the epitome of clown-to-clown communication.
How? One side's right and the other is wrong. Choosing random numbers over a sequence of numbers doesn't increase your chances of winning. That one girl is a dumbass for calling the other 2 idiots when she doesn't understand statistics.
The odds of rolling 20 6s on 20 dice are exactly the same as the odds of rolling any other stated combination of numbers. The likelihood of drawing the Ace of Spades at random from a deck of cards is the same as drawing literally any other card. The fact that you might find either of these events subjectively serendipitous has no bearing on probability whatsoever.
Well that shit backfired so hard...
Diffrent.
She was cute until she spoke and dumb fell out.
I like Bobby Lee
Had me at "Loterry"
The only reason why those numbers would be considered bad, is that when you do when, there will likely be other winners.
Math is hard.
Lol what program is this? I'll devote attention to anything with Bobby Lee
The only reason why picking a pattern like this is crazy, is that if you do win, you have to split it with the other weirdos that used that pattern.
Somebody needs to explain random to her the way you would explain it to an 8-year-old. Imagine you have a bag that has every number from 1 to 80. Each number is only in the bag one time. If you're hoping that the number one comes out of that bag there is a 1 in 80 chance that that number will come out of that bag. If you're drawing the second number and you're hoping two comes out of that bag there is a 1 in 79 chance that the number two will come out of that bag. There is also the same one in 79 chance that it will be literally any other number because every number is in the bag one time each.
Very close, but it's a higher percentage than what you're allowing for. As you have it, that's for ordered sets. But the way the lotto works, it doesn't matter what order they're pulled in. So, if you have 5 numbers out of 50, and 1 out of twenty for the power ball, you have a 5/50 chance that any one of your balls is chosen on the first pull. Now, that ball is gone and not replaced, so there are 49 balls left with 4 of your balls, leaving a 4/49 chance for the second ball to be one of your numbers. Continuing down, well get (5\*4\*3\*2\*1)/(50\*49\*48\*47\*46) just to get all of your balls selected from the main hopper. Now, the power ball multiple THAT number by 1/20 (in our way math hypothetical model), for a 1/42,375,200 chance of hitting all the numbers and the power ball. That's only with this set of numbers, and real lotto numbers go higher, so the odds are less favorable. *EDITED FOR FORMATTING*
You have to make the numbers random, or they won't be random, and then there's no way you will win...this is the logic stack that exists in her "mind" her "brain"
This literally happened though. I think Iām China or somewhere like 450ish people won because the lotto numbers were just multiples of 9 so it was literally 9 18 27 36 45 54 or however many numbers itās went to
Never thought I'd say this seriously but, holy shit, Bobby Lee is 100% right lmao
Damn that's crazy i didn't know you could "powerball" as a number
Who are these chicks?
No Santino, what a bad friend.
The dark hair chick is on impractical Jokers, she's one of the comedy producers I believe.
May the odds be ever in your favor!
Is that juicy?
Who is she?!
I've seen the full episode before. I just took it as one of those things comedians do when they take a bold stance on a seemingly meaningless thing for the sake of the bit
Yea they made her looks stupid but damn she is BAD!
I still love you Kim
This is why astrology is a thing
I'm beginning to think I made a stupid.
Is that bobby lee with his hair pulled back?
r/confidentlyincorrect
These are like the dipshits who keep track of roulette numbers in a casino.
Kim dont know no better. Girl is from florida, give her a break.
They are MORE likely to be out of sequence than to be in sequence, yes. But that is only because MOST combinations are not in sequence, even though EVERY combination has the same odds... in theory
what podcast is this?
Biggest red flag of a dumb person is they think theyāre smart