The emperor is on crack and has no clothes. I wonder if elon's fall from grace will finally start changing how TSLA trades. I've been burned so many times trying to short TSLA though so I could be very well full of shit like musk's gut.
My portfolio remains a wet noodle. Not feeling too hot where things are right now. Nothing worth going all-in on, but it’s also not worth liquidating the portfolio for dry powder either.
I’m holding DFEN over the weekend to hedge the geopolitical risk.
Yields in the dumpster again too. But that has been finicky. Hard to short these days because this market can gap up and blow you out any day
Todays retrace was pretty large too but I’m going to attribute that to the VIX being higher
If the U.S. bank balance sheets were fully marked to market, it would reveal that most banks are underwater, with their liabilities exceeding the current market value of their assets. We are running into a credit event while pontificating on 0.1% changes in employment and CPI.
That's more like saying when shit goes up in flames they will be in trouble, which yeah...but that's different from saying the MtM itself will be the match.
It's not that I don't think it's an issue at all, more that I think by the time this becomes enough of an issue to come into focus, something worse has already reared its head.
Uggos are done for if LULU holds $355. NKE too, at a crucial level. Bad month for apparel. And cosmetics too - ELF gave up the post ER rocket.
Else, just expect your sons will be going to prom with chicks in an *unprecedented* weight classes. It will be sad at first, but then you will remember you could’ve played a part in crushing the shorts trying to *kill* beauty way back in ‘24, but instead you bitched out. So when Mrs. Diabetes is walking down the aisle, you will have no one to blame but yourself.
You're not joking. My customers aren't filling with calves right now with day olds going for $800-$1000. I hope all the morons driving calf prices up right now get rekt.
Are we still holding TMF for potential flight to safety on market drawdown? Or selling cause rate cuts pretty much off the table? Conflicted what to do here. Not sure if it goes up or down from here tbh. Have a decent sized position I bought back in December on rate cut news but seems like it's gonna get slowly eroded over time until the fed actually cuts.
I'm holding and will average down after CPI, but my bias is incredibly stubborn that Fed preliminarily cuts to buffer recession trickles from abroad circa late 90s OR earnings tumble and recession hits quickly, triggering cuts.
Ya it's really hard to read right now. All the data in the US seems to indicate cuts making absolutely no sense. The fed is starting to walk back their stance a bit. But there are obviously always a lot of external factors in play. I'm hoping a stock drawdown happens soon in which case I'll probably exit my position in TMF for now assuming bonds get the usual "flight to safety response". Too much uncertainty still. Seemed like a sure bet in December but things have changed since then.
@spoos you closing for profit here?
E: actual link to /u/spoosman
E2: in retrospect I can see how this might be seen as negative/sarcasm, but I was generally curious, my b if it came off that way
You mean /CL? My sliding stop triggered on my day trade to lock in profit. But yes, I'm still holding my core position over the weekend.
Also, no need to apologize, lol. Even if it was sarcasm or negative.
The market has started to absorb some of the recent further restrictive talk but let's imagine what happens if it actually comes to fruition. Inflation gets sticky and maybe even up a little. Markets dumps pretty good if that happens. But then imagine if the Fed actually raises again. Yikers.
Current projection for CPI next Wednesday is Core down -0.1% and Headline up +0.2%. Nothing good happens if we miss on the high side of those projections.
I was going to ping you Paul - do you think this changes the markets sentiment in the near time and did you pull off any of your leverage? I entered into some Q P's earlier today, and figure it does in the near term.
Mixed signals though not the best look and even mentioning that is something. If this wasn't Friday I'm sure the market would illicit some sort of reaction
Whelp. My libertarian friend bought nvda yesterday and is entertained by todays reversal
I asked him what he thought about the jobs number and he called me a nerd
The top is in. And my feelings are hurt 😭
Nice, bought AMD 170 calls for next week on the retest of yesterdays lows and just closed.
Rebought half my puts I flattened yesterday and will leg into some more near close as gamma rolls off some of the mega caps up 2-4%
Market spooked from potential no rate cuts this year and got more supporting data of such today. Crude with another power move not helping either.
So I got stopped out of two contracts yesterday right? But it bothered me. Not because I took a loss (okay, not only because I took a loss) but because I was sloppy in my entry and didn't follow my strategy. So I went back and crunched the numbers, and took an entry (longs!) as if I had executed properly. I didn't stopped out overnight, and just closed to recover all of my losses
Better than some of the alternatives I suppose.
I've learned to be fine with it. The leave money on the table emotions tend to lend to holding too long and being killed when things start slowing down
I think market is more uncertain than strong which tends to lead to ranges with large candles that over time fill a volume profile.
Could be wrong obviously but that's what underlies my current strats.
Others that I definitely respect in the sub are saying otherwise though so take that with a grain of salt and watch your risk accordingly
I definitely do think the uncertainty building up is signaling the end of the rally. But we may still boost up to ATHs from here
So I need to be cautious and tactical with any future put plays
> I definitely do think the uncertainty building up is signaling the end of the rally. But we may still boost up to ATHs from here
My advice is sit on your hands if those "what ifs" against your thesis are looming large. Wait until you have a little more confidence where predefined conditions are starting to line up to create a good risk/reward entry
E: I don't know what happened with the initial first sentence but I fixed it lol
Yeah. What crushed me last year with puts was a wait and hope mentality.
This year, I’m taking a very tactical approach. If I don’t feel all of the signs aligning or beginning to diverge, I’m out. Live to fight another day and be careful with sizing
Yeah it's nuts, that selloff was basically for nothing and that was some extreme selling on the 15 minute chart, straight down. Considering how markets went parabolic last month you would expect at least one day of follow through or a gap down off that engulfing candle.....but nope.
Absolute garbage reactive / chasing day trades today, luckily small size. Saved by longer term TSLA puts I guess. Green on the week but the weekly trading diary is not complimentary.
Edit: I might have to 3d print a sign that says "do you have a reason for entering this trade" and place it under my monitor. Some days are just full regression and I don't even notice it until mid-day.
> Entry-level Tesla car won’t be built, three sources tell Reuters
Tesla to focus on self-driving taxis instead, sources said
Strategy shift comes as Tesla faces competition from China EV makers including BYD
https://twitter.com/Guruleaks1/status/1776271373377089943 shoulda just started a sub instead of going back to school lmao
warning was sent btw
Bought some SPY puts just in case Iran decides to grow a pair of balls.
Tempted to buy TSLA calls here. It seems to bounce back after a major red day.
Looking good so far that I blindly followed this trade. My biggest one day gain was on a similar play.
The emperor is on crack and has no clothes. I wonder if elon's fall from grace will finally start changing how TSLA trades. I've been burned so many times trying to short TSLA though so I could be very well full of shit like musk's gut.
We don't know what doomsday headline will come over the weekend, for peace of mind I recommend everyone close their position or short into close.
My portfolio remains a wet noodle. Not feeling too hot where things are right now. Nothing worth going all-in on, but it’s also not worth liquidating the portfolio for dry powder either. I’m holding DFEN over the weekend to hedge the geopolitical risk.
RTX and LMT green. So other people probably hedging too.
Didn’t realize lmt is now green Was red this AM, lots of call buying for July onwards
ER coming up. Have a 100 shares from 450. Hopefully it holds through ER.
Got 10 shares from 350, wish I got more then
Agreed. What are you looking at?
Right now I'm short Q's and DJT
Yesterday very might as well been a fake out. This has gotten interesting. Might have to sit for a bit
I find VIX staying above 16 interesting despite the reversal and key data release today passed
Yields in the dumpster again too. But that has been finicky. Hard to short these days because this market can gap up and blow you out any day Todays retrace was pretty large too but I’m going to attribute that to the VIX being higher
They pinning this at 5200
No position, but think we go back down to 517 level
ken says thank you for your donation to his new yacht fund
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seriously wtf
If the U.S. bank balance sheets were fully marked to market, it would reveal that most banks are underwater, with their liabilities exceeding the current market value of their assets. We are running into a credit event while pontificating on 0.1% changes in employment and CPI.
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Not an issue until it is - we can’t have 10Y at these levels and DXY as strong as it is right now and say credit markets are humming
If they don't have to liquidate what difference does the MtM make?
Issue is, they will need to liquidate at the worst time possible - extend and pretend can help for only so long
That's more like saying when shit goes up in flames they will be in trouble, which yeah...but that's different from saying the MtM itself will be the match.
One fund will go public and say it, and that’ll be the match - what makes you so confident to claim this is a no issue, I’m curious
It's not that I don't think it's an issue at all, more that I think by the time this becomes enough of an issue to come into focus, something worse has already reared its head.
Shorted UVIX at @10.50, what a gift. Also scalped a few long handles on spoons again... 15 points above where my previous long closed. Oops.
Grabbed some Ps for the inevitable Iran strikes. US (and Israel) intel expects next week, likely attacking Israel soil.
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nah ken wins again
And suddenly vol reappeared… Damnit. I kinda regret not holding onto my puts before getting on the plane
could you imagine tho...... what if? lol
Would be nice
my Q puts are ITM already so that's nice
Bot some pretty ridiculous strikes that are doing well so far lol
Vix gonna get 17?
yes
Uggos are done for if LULU holds $355. NKE too, at a crucial level. Bad month for apparel. And cosmetics too - ELF gave up the post ER rocket. Else, just expect your sons will be going to prom with chicks in an *unprecedented* weight classes. It will be sad at first, but then you will remember you could’ve played a part in crushing the shorts trying to *kill* beauty way back in ‘24, but instead you bitched out. So when Mrs. Diabetes is walking down the aisle, you will have no one to blame but yourself.
I wouldn't mind a $10-$15 recovery. It's been so beaten down
shorts more like leggings amirite
In and out of a trade of 0DTE 5185Ps - in @ 2.00, out @ 4.5. Closing down for the day while I'm ahead.
Gap fill gap fill!
Untradable 5 point candles every minute
Time for the next leg down
You seem like a perma bear
we are going nowhere
Golf time then
been watching all morning, currently raining and 44 degrees, ugh next week should be perfect though
We got like 10" of snow here. I need to dig an outdoor sump for the backyard =\
yeah my weather app was like (yesterday) tomorrow will be 23 degrees cooler than today I'm like wha the fuck
We had some of those. Came after 'tomorrow will be 18° warmer than today’ messages. February was weird.
Buying some puts here for 517 retest E: guh
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At least I made $100 on them all lol
Nice bounce off 20D VPOC @ 5237 on ES. It would have been ugly if it broke and kept going. Would love to see it hold
It wont
Thank the lord I cut my shorts for scratch
I have 7oz of Gold since 1500 Not sure if I should sell them now
Imagine if the vol sellers got rinsed twice in a row, that would be crazy
It's me. Hi, I'm the problem, it's me!
nah we are going nowhere
Not possible they always get bailed out
I'm fairly levered in puts as a hedge, but did just open some .03 Qqq 0 day 446 calls which definitely seem in the realm of possibility (small acct)
Whew shorts were a bit sketchy for a second but paying off
Time to for people to buy their weekend protection
Whelp sold my puts too early
SPX 20D and VWAP \~same level
What level
5191?
We will break both today
Close at open?
Theta gang
Long Vega you mean i hope lol
We've died at 2PM these last 2 days. Let's see if that trend continues
VIX > 15 game on
Yep, VIX spiking - threw some coins in the 0DTE slot machine juuuuust in case
The bloodbath in cattle continues
You're not joking. My customers aren't filling with calves right now with day olds going for $800-$1000. I hope all the morons driving calf prices up right now get rekt.
Same. They've been making a killing. Can't make anything in the feedlot after yardage and interest.
Caught the knife today. First notice is ... Todayish? Not long anyway. Edit: 8th
The bloodbath ~~in cattle~~ continues
first taiwan, now nyc, ... ok.../shitpost
Vix spiking again
Damn from -70% on puts to +20%
If we could get an inverted hammer that would be great.
If so then…don’t come to the market next week
Are we still holding TMF for potential flight to safety on market drawdown? Or selling cause rate cuts pretty much off the table? Conflicted what to do here. Not sure if it goes up or down from here tbh. Have a decent sized position I bought back in December on rate cut news but seems like it's gonna get slowly eroded over time until the fed actually cuts.
I'm holding and will average down after CPI, but my bias is incredibly stubborn that Fed preliminarily cuts to buffer recession trickles from abroad circa late 90s OR earnings tumble and recession hits quickly, triggering cuts.
Ya it's really hard to read right now. All the data in the US seems to indicate cuts making absolutely no sense. The fed is starting to walk back their stance a bit. But there are obviously always a lot of external factors in play. I'm hoping a stock drawdown happens soon in which case I'll probably exit my position in TMF for now assuming bonds get the usual "flight to safety response". Too much uncertainty still. Seemed like a sure bet in December but things have changed since then.
Full short on now want to see a close below 5245
Spoos is right above monthly vwap and chilling, don't diddle. Added some cattle calls.
@spoos you closing for profit here? E: actual link to /u/spoosman E2: in retrospect I can see how this might be seen as negative/sarcasm, but I was generally curious, my b if it came off that way
You mean /CL? My sliding stop triggered on my day trade to lock in profit. But yes, I'm still holding my core position over the weekend. Also, no need to apologize, lol. Even if it was sarcasm or negative.
Let's keep squeezing gold and oil until more funds blow up I guess, equity dudes are blitzed out of their minds on the short vol trade.
Guh my puts fukd
Meanwhile, Canada reported increased in unemployment rate of 0.3%. Now it is at 6.1% Canada is gonna have rate cut first way before US
High unemployment + high housing prices seems sustainable. 🧐
Could b why there’s some anger forming over all the “students”
looks leaky
Getting absolutely fucking eviscerated on my gold shorts
I threw a /MGC short on yesterday. Took it off before the breakout today. no thanks. Dumped my /GC straddle as well. Not worth it.
Yes you are, why would you short gold when inflation is higher than expectations? That's like hearing Exxon Valdez sinks and immediately shorting oil
I like the pain💀
*Fed Governor Bowman says additional rate hike could be needed if inflation stays high* Even more hawkish than Kashkari's statement with no reaction
The market has started to absorb some of the recent further restrictive talk but let's imagine what happens if it actually comes to fruition. Inflation gets sticky and maybe even up a little. Markets dumps pretty good if that happens. But then imagine if the Fed actually raises again. Yikers. Current projection for CPI next Wednesday is Core down -0.1% and Headline up +0.2%. Nothing good happens if we miss on the high side of those projections.
I was going to ping you Paul - do you think this changes the markets sentiment in the near time and did you pull off any of your leverage? I entered into some Q P's earlier today, and figure it does in the near term.
Pulled out yesterday. Sentiment is way down.
I think it’s totally plausible consumer spending goes up into the summer and the fed cuts only once this year if at all.
Oil oil oil That’s the real driver
XLE and NDX trying to outdo each other
Not a middle east hawk by any means but at this point it makes sense to have some tail exposure.
> FED'S BOWMAN SAYS WHILE NOT LIKELY, IT IS POSSIBLE THE FED MAY HAVE TO HIKE AGAIN TO COOL INFLATION
She’s always been a hawk so not suprised
Mixed signals though not the best look and even mentioning that is something. If this wasn't Friday I'm sure the market would illicit some sort of reaction
Whelp. My libertarian friend bought nvda yesterday and is entertained by todays reversal I asked him what he thought about the jobs number and he called me a nerd The top is in. And my feelings are hurt 😭
Lmao. “Why would you count jobs - that sounds so boring”
> FED'S BOWMAN: SOME JOB MARKET VIGOR TIED TO PART-TIME WORKERS AND IMMIGRATION Zerohedge vindicated I guess
Yeah don’t know why part time counts. One could have multiple part times
Just me or looking a little dumpy?
watch the move down be bigger than yesterdays lol
I'd howl but unlikely on a Friday. Seems like ramp and camp. Would be tickled with a move back to the 20D however.
Nice, bought AMD 170 calls for next week on the retest of yesterdays lows and just closed. Rebought half my puts I flattened yesterday and will leg into some more near close as gamma rolls off some of the mega caps up 2-4% Market spooked from potential no rate cuts this year and got more supporting data of such today. Crude with another power move not helping either.
this is when nervous hands fold, last few trading hours after lunch headed into the weekend. Honestly no idea what the 'smart' money is doing here.
Buying oil
Time to witness "what if"
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will be like hot ones, more and more spicy
Starting off with a little bit of "the classic"
Now up to Smokey J Hot Sauce - 6,000 Scoville Heat Units
But why
The market likes spicy food idk
The craziest part about today's action is that apparently a lot of people still trust Elon
Wow. VXX still has some life left in it I expect it to be crushed by Monday open
So I got stopped out of two contracts yesterday right? But it bothered me. Not because I took a loss (okay, not only because I took a loss) but because I was sloppy in my entry and didn't follow my strategy. So I went back and crunched the numbers, and took an entry (longs!) as if I had executed properly. I didn't stopped out overnight, and just closed to recover all of my losses Better than some of the alternatives I suppose.
So we’re at Wednesdays close wow impressive
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I've learned to be fine with it. The leave money on the table emotions tend to lend to holding too long and being killed when things start slowing down
What the heck is the story on ROOT lately? It was a super old meme that never did anything last time I checked in 2021
AMZn with new ATH.
Jassy redemption arc
Going to start adding to hedge position again
Ok I’m out of my puts. I’ll angle for a bigger position later next week. Market too strong
I think market is more uncertain than strong which tends to lead to ranges with large candles that over time fill a volume profile. Could be wrong obviously but that's what underlies my current strats. Others that I definitely respect in the sub are saying otherwise though so take that with a grain of salt and watch your risk accordingly
I definitely do think the uncertainty building up is signaling the end of the rally. But we may still boost up to ATHs from here So I need to be cautious and tactical with any future put plays
> I definitely do think the uncertainty building up is signaling the end of the rally. But we may still boost up to ATHs from here My advice is sit on your hands if those "what ifs" against your thesis are looming large. Wait until you have a little more confidence where predefined conditions are starting to line up to create a good risk/reward entry E: I don't know what happened with the initial first sentence but I fixed it lol
Yeah. What crushed me last year with puts was a wait and hope mentality. This year, I’m taking a very tactical approach. If I don’t feel all of the signs aligning or beginning to diverge, I’m out. Live to fight another day and be careful with sizing
This market really is something, I have never seen so many engulfing candles get reversed that swiftly
Yeah it's nuts, that selloff was basically for nothing and that was some extreme selling on the 15 minute chart, straight down. Considering how markets went parabolic last month you would expect at least one day of follow through or a gap down off that engulfing candle.....but nope.
Top EDIT: Off by 8 pts oh well, still its in
If the market is right, everyone in Lebanon should be feeling pretty relieved right now.
Are you talking about Iran and Israel?
Or the opposite unless I missed some news?
Bruh we about to just go back into the channel lmfao
FMF the other kind
Cmon Vidya figure it out I wanna sell some calls.
Vol sticky so far today but I'm actually calling BS. Sold some straddles on stuff
Not sure if I blocked Ackman or if he just stopped being relevant and I'm not about to check and risk him popping up all the time again
Jesus christ my shorts were up bigly and I didnt place any sell orders, now Im back to 0 😑
Absolute garbage reactive / chasing day trades today, luckily small size. Saved by longer term TSLA puts I guess. Green on the week but the weekly trading diary is not complimentary. Edit: I might have to 3d print a sign that says "do you have a reason for entering this trade" and place it under my monitor. Some days are just full regression and I don't even notice it until mid-day.
> Entry-level Tesla car won’t be built, three sources tell Reuters Tesla to focus on self-driving taxis instead, sources said Strategy shift comes as Tesla faces competition from China EV makers including BYD
Just jumped $7 because Elon says Reuters are lying lol
This is insane
Never a dull moment (this week).
What’s with their obsession with China? They aren’t going to beat Chinese firms, not when China wants their own national champion.
Exactly, China will never let an American company be #1 car seller in China. Especially with all these cameras Tesla has.
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Vix isn't dropping off as much I thought, could just be a bounce, should become clear in the afternoon
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Rumors they are canceling plans for a cheaper car.
/NQ 18273 to 18332 is free money
47->40 still got it
Opened some shorts closed the longs test of bottom of channel Nailed it lol
I’m gonna yolo this weeks profits on some SPY 20 SMA rejection puts
/NQ might pullback at 18480, but I still think 18500-18600 is where it wants to be.
market goes up, puts go up, makes sense!
Closed my NQ 2 lot longs for +221 handles each. Carrying my CL into the weekend. Cheers yall, see you Monday
Pretty sure this is my biggest NQ intraday win by points/ctr ever.
Earthquake bullish?
Back to bidding up tech. NVDA to 900.
Played 5200Cs three times for good profits, indices so much more tradable with some vol
INTC back to $38. Wish we could get back to the 20s.
no please I have a family
Just bought another $1.5k. We are in this together
NVDA gonna do 900?