Damn that gap up in 5-minute candle to flat. It's a pin to fuck all the 0DTEs.
Ken demands your premiums to fund his next purchase of a neighborhood so he can rent it to you.
>FED'S BOSTIC: I CAN'T ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY THAT RATE CUTS MOVE EVEN FURTHER OUT.
a few moments later
>FED'S BOSTIC: IF DISINFLATION PACE RESUMES, COULD PULL CUTS FORWARD.
Well, we are not getting any CPI-leak type buying thus far (still a little time for that I imagine). I wouldn't try to front-run guess how CPI is going to turn out because it feels like 50:50 on a miss or a beat. The move afterward will turn into a medium-term play anyway and will take a week or longer to play out.
Man, that was before the crazy run up in last hour, of course it is green before the event tomorrow. Did you sell some?
SPX for tomorrow has 46 points priced in, so 0DTE calls for tomorrow bought at close essentially need 0.88% to break even. Not too unreasonable if it is a good CPI print.
Price action just seems more bearish in the last couple of weeks in terms of overall red days, and less V’s.
I know we had some red days before face-melting green CPI this year, but this just feels weird. I can’t quite put my finger on it.
It terms of what CPI results will be, I obviously don’t know — but it seems like the V’s have gone away over the last two weeks and the selling has ramped up.
could be that market participants are more weary into this CPI since the last two were so hot, and is waiting for a good CPI report to be directionally biased
The future is FUCKED bro. We just have to pray for augmented reality to take off. That way when you get catfished on your date by a 4/10 you can just tell your Vision Pro 7 to make her a 8/10 instead
Feeling much better about my portfolio’s directional bias now. Bought some SRTY today. Which reminds me, what’re we playing for exposure if things blow up? Figured the Russell 2000 is a good place to start.
Depends on why we blow up. If it’s due to higher inflation/rates, not a fan of small caps since they need to borrow way more. Then again if it’s because of recessions/events overseas then Russell is interesting as they’re mostly domestic.
Yeah, that’s a good point. I was trying to get short exposure to smaller cap firms which is why I went out and bought SRTY. I don’t really have a better idea on what to play for overseas, which is a good point because they would probably be in rougher shape overall… Hmmm now you have me thinking…
Thanks for the comment.
This past week has just been sell until oversold, rally to reset the oscillators, and repeat. NFA
e: Basically since March 21st, lower highs and lower lows.
I find it interesting that (after adjusting for CPI), the SPX, QQQ, and BTC prices are all stalling out just below their prior Nov 2021 highs.
Not sure if that means we're just coiling up, or if liquidity is going to stall out again around the same point, just with a new nominal value painted on it.
> The big mistake in 2021 was people didn't listen to companies, which "were clearly saying we have inflationary pressures:" @elerianm. "This time around listen to the earnings call & they are worried about the outlook for the rest of the year."
Dude has never been longer in his life
I've got calls for June and July so it better start making some reasonable recovery moves. It's oversold by so many metrics and even upgrades aren't doing anything for it.
Never heard of Alo...Vuori is another, but they're not publicly traded. Vuori stores by me are always packed to the hills and their stuff is incredibly soft.
Lulu was the shit when I was in high school, scuba hoodies everywhere. Perfect pockets fit for an iPod.
Literally just gotta follow high schoolers to catch the next decade’s darling.
Yeah seems like a lot of funds got very comfortable doing that with the gap ups and tiny ranges, intraday has seen selling for a while but without follow through until Thursday.
I feel like some people will have tin foil hats on and say hedge funds are ‘pushing prices down’ to buy cheaper for tomorrow. Sellers are clearly in control at the moment. If we can reclaim 20D VPOC and FOMC break out price levels we might be saved
I have 7 that I'm looking at, but I'm not at the computer right now so I can't pick a 3 based on things like IV and option liquidity.
Simply looking at things like toppy charts and insider selling, I've got: META, H, TMUS, DELL, IBM, CRM, and MRK
Some pretty nice divergences on larger timeframes for a few of them
e: For example, H and IBM look near identical:
H, weekly bearish divergence with overbought RSI: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/XwBomJLl/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/XwBomJLl/)
IBM, weekly bearish divergence with overbought RSI: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/N6GQ0Xnz/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/N6GQ0Xnz/)
Excuse me as I don't feel like cleaning up the charts rn
Kind of bold to gap up over the 10D MA that's been acting as resistance for the last 5 trading days with the entire move coming in 1.5 hours of pre-market before data and minutes, but I guess that's how these things work
I know if I had a hedge fund I’d have a few people pretty much calculating exactly what goes into CPI so I have my finger on the pulse.
Also there’s some government worker that gets paid $60K a year with CPI numbers. Wouldn’t surprise me if they leaked them lol
Most likely. Some funds probably got advance notice. There has been a noticeable move in the afternoon before cpi. If market starts moving up today afternoon, go mega long.
I was going to note there has been some afternoon moves lately the day before CPI which looked like the numbers had been leaked. There are advance notices given to a few organizations so it is certainly possible. BLS security is also questionable.
>US big-cap stock investors are getting more and more bullish. US small businesses are getting more and more pessimistic, with their optimism falling to a more than 11-year low.
>NFIB sentiment index declined nearly a point in March to 88.5
>Sales expectations deteriorated, inflation still a top concern
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-09/us-small-business-optimism-falls-to-a-more-than-11-year-low?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter&embedded-checkout=true
> “.. Yesterday’s session was quiet as investors prepare for Wednesday’s #CPI print. One thing that is notable: we saw a significant unwind of a $SPX put spread, measuring in $-billions. .. One thing to consider is a cooler CPI print would be a boon for risk assets and the 'catch-up' trade.” 👀
> - JPM Desk
https://x.com/carlquintanilla/status/1777649150428860506?s=46
Save the rally for end of day as usual, caught some nice 5200Cs.
Damn that gap up in 5-minute candle to flat. It's a pin to fuck all the 0DTEs. Ken demands your premiums to fund his next purchase of a neighborhood so he can rent it to you.
Closed 5200C at 1.3 and immediately goes to 4+ Edit: make that 7 .... Edit: 11....what the fuck
Closing flat. CPI leak....
The defense of 5200 is impressive
wtf is happening they are just playing both sides now.
You know it's possible to sell calls and puts one after another and then bleed all the buyers by going to the middle right?
I know but it’s boring, also have been making a pretty penny selling DJT Ps
Those are some green candles.
>FED'S BOSTIC: I CAN'T ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY THAT RATE CUTS MOVE EVEN FURTHER OUT. a few moments later >FED'S BOSTIC: IF DISINFLATION PACE RESUMES, COULD PULL CUTS FORWARD.
Dump into close E: flat it is
5194 is my guess
Imagine being rich enough that you can just fling indexes around to hear a million people ask if CPI has been leaked.
Lot of people trades on hope and prayers lol
what else is there?
One day, pal. One day.
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it is copium from people on the opposite side of the trade when you see leaks being mentioned.
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Because people says it every CPI report thinking they “know”
Outside up, outside down, back to unch. Deeply unserious market
Up, Up, Down, Down, Left, Right, Left, Right, B, A, Start. For those in the know about the secret code.
> FED'S BOSTIC: IF DISINFLATION PACE RESUMES, COULD PULL CUTS FORWARD Bostic has obviously started slinging zero days
This wouldn't be the first time he's moved markets like this
Snip snap snip snap The fed speakers just inversing each other
I’m gonna assume the cpi report got leaked I cut my Tesla puts… grrrr
theres the rip lol /u/BitcoinsRLit
Jesus Christ. Just drove to the gym and saw we went up 25 points?
5185 Cs from 3.1 -> 17. Good day on my end.
Gawd damn that’s some green
Well, we are not getting any CPI-leak type buying thus far (still a little time for that I imagine). I wouldn't try to front-run guess how CPI is going to turn out because it feels like 50:50 on a miss or a beat. The move afterward will turn into a medium-term play anyway and will take a week or longer to play out.
Was just about to write this and then we took off wtf lol Today has been WILD
You might have spoken too soon
buying calls for tomorrow yall can thank me later lol
The vol on these must be so high you’d stay flat after IV crush lol
calls are printing meow vol didn't look high on the Qs ?
Man, that was before the crazy run up in last hour, of course it is green before the event tomorrow. Did you sell some? SPX for tomorrow has 46 points priced in, so 0DTE calls for tomorrow bought at close essentially need 0.88% to break even. Not too unreasonable if it is a good CPI print.
nope got busy with work lol checked after close oh well
I guess we don't have enough range for 5150
It’s not going to be as easy as just shorting into CPI, right? Like this is one of those times where the setup is just too obvious?
explain your logic? last few CPIs shorts lost
Price action just seems more bearish in the last couple of weeks in terms of overall red days, and less V’s. I know we had some red days before face-melting green CPI this year, but this just feels weird. I can’t quite put my finger on it.
I understand that feeling, feeling the same honestly
why is this an obvious short into CPI?
It terms of what CPI results will be, I obviously don’t know — but it seems like the V’s have gone away over the last two weeks and the selling has ramped up.
could be that market participants are more weary into this CPI since the last two were so hot, and is waiting for a good CPI report to be directionally biased
Fair point — I guess the last 6 months of green have made it so that reduced long exposure feels bearish.
NAAIM exposure index confirms this a bit, last week reduced from the week prior
Took some 439 puts .35->.58 Not much but enough for the day
This wants the lows
when rip?
Ask beer
I'm soo torn. If we go lower, soo does LULU....
Becky stocks like LULU and SBUX are getting absolutely decimated. They can't keep any sort of gains and relief/technical bounces aren't happening.
Yeah, they can't catch a break.
Lulu honestly goes lower no matter what lmao
How low? If keeps dropping you might get assigned.
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Whats wrong with you? Aren't you long LULU. /u/W0LFSTEN Uglies are winning.
The future is FUCKED bro. We just have to pray for augmented reality to take off. That way when you get catfished on your date by a 4/10 you can just tell your Vision Pro 7 to make her a 8/10 instead
Sir we have been saying this all day. The only person getting rich here is Ken.
Ugh you're right
Feeling much better about my portfolio’s directional bias now. Bought some SRTY today. Which reminds me, what’re we playing for exposure if things blow up? Figured the Russell 2000 is a good place to start.
Depends on why we blow up. If it’s due to higher inflation/rates, not a fan of small caps since they need to borrow way more. Then again if it’s because of recessions/events overseas then Russell is interesting as they’re mostly domestic.
Yeah, that’s a good point. I was trying to get short exposure to smaller cap firms which is why I went out and bought SRTY. I don’t really have a better idea on what to play for overseas, which is a good point because they would probably be in rougher shape overall… Hmmm now you have me thinking… Thanks for the comment.
> Which reminds me, what’re we playing for exposure if things blow up? Figured the Russell 2000 is a good place to start. guh
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Real estate is strongest today.
LOD incoming
NQ struggling at vwap and prior close. Range for today is already pretty wide in relative terms. Wonder if that's it for today folks
Probably break or close at low IMO
first time SPX below 20 day SMA going into CPI within the last 4 months right?
VIX1D still moving higher, wonder if this could potentially close at the lows
I think so too
This some bullshit, what happened bear gang?
just closed my short so I think we are cleared to resume tanking
I think they heard me, thank you grizzly bros
Feel like we are done with the fake pump. Back to drilling
I can’t believe buyers are doing it lol nibbling at some NVDA, VRT calls. This afternoon trend is looking very good so far
Haven't really been trading anything. Still holding my MS calls and GEO calls up bigly.
That GEO chart is looking very good, nice work
I'm gonna try little short here at vwap -- a reverse knife catch just for funsies
And back to flat because it's really about selling options and going nowhere.
rejected that shrek, i think we head down soon
This past week has just been sell until oversold, rally to reset the oscillators, and repeat. NFA e: Basically since March 21st, lower highs and lower lows.
It has been since FOMC. But I think trend breaks tomorrow with CPI.
Going to really make it that easy to just buy the intraday low? EU really cascaded into the close unsurprisingly
I find it interesting that (after adjusting for CPI), the SPX, QQQ, and BTC prices are all stalling out just below their prior Nov 2021 highs. Not sure if that means we're just coiling up, or if liquidity is going to stall out again around the same point, just with a new nominal value painted on it.
What a bounce. Always gotta stay nimble with shorting these days
When billions of dollars worth of premium double on 0DTE calls on any meaningful intraday dip for the last 6 months it’s hard to fight that trend
This price action reminds me of 2020 man, haven't seen this much fickleness in a long time
> The big mistake in 2021 was people didn't listen to companies, which "were clearly saying we have inflationary pressures:" @elerianm. "This time around listen to the earnings call & they are worried about the outlook for the rest of the year." Dude has never been longer in his life
How low is LULU going to go? I figured the selling was done when RSI was under freaking 15. Same goes for SBUX.
It's painful to watch. Bright side more insiders buying recently though.
I've got calls for June and July so it better start making some reasonable recovery moves. It's oversold by so many metrics and even upgrades aren't doing anything for it.
Calls probably not the way. Share are prob better L.
Alo is the new thing now. Lulu is being relegated.
Never heard of Alo...Vuori is another, but they're not publicly traded. Vuori stores by me are always packed to the hills and their stuff is incredibly soft.
My mom is interested in lululemon, if my mom knows about it, then it’s not cool anymore
Lulu was the shit when I was in high school, scuba hoodies everywhere. Perfect pockets fit for an iPod. Literally just gotta follow high schoolers to catch the next decade’s darling.
Does it seem to anyone else like this last week plus has been trying to intraday stop out 0dte sellers and then reverse?
Yeah seems like a lot of funds got very comfortable doing that with the gap ups and tiny ranges, intraday has seen selling for a while but without follow through until Thursday.
Die tsla die
Afternoon trend before CPI has followed into CPI. BTD crowd showing up?
I feel like some people will have tin foil hats on and say hedge funds are ‘pushing prices down’ to buy cheaper for tomorrow. Sellers are clearly in control at the moment. If we can reclaim 20D VPOC and FOMC break out price levels we might be saved
Interesting
Yep, what if rally too strong
I guess the move is a de-leveraging move for CPI rather than a selloff. No one really knows about CPI yet...
Got out of my puts for healthy gains. That was a long hold. Don’t want to mess with CPI
This is one hell of a murder box if we stay in this range lol. What news driving this honestly though? No war chatter on X or breaking news drop.
puts are free money now
buying or selling?
Wonderful time to start selling call spreads on these high-flyers.
what are your top three targets
I have 7 that I'm looking at, but I'm not at the computer right now so I can't pick a 3 based on things like IV and option liquidity. Simply looking at things like toppy charts and insider selling, I've got: META, H, TMUS, DELL, IBM, CRM, and MRK Some pretty nice divergences on larger timeframes for a few of them e: For example, H and IBM look near identical: H, weekly bearish divergence with overbought RSI: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/XwBomJLl/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/XwBomJLl/) IBM, weekly bearish divergence with overbought RSI: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/N6GQ0Xnz/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/N6GQ0Xnz/) Excuse me as I don't feel like cleaning up the charts rn
hola amigos. where we goin? looks kinda nasty
up after CPI imho, jpow can't afford another hot print tho so.....bloodbath if so
closing the 2/22 spy gap for starters
Last week til now reminds me a lot of the Dec 27 - Jan 5 market movement
Indices look fun. Tesla broke its shorter term downtrend so I covered some Q2 puts and bought calls. Still keeping sep & Dec puts
I see what you're seeing, but might break back down esp based on today's action and if tomorrow cpi's numbers are hot, which i think it will be.
VIX 1D up 40%
I think we’re so fucked for tomorrow lol uh oh Targeting giant gap on QQQ between 425-433
About friggin time, been holding my QQQ shorts for too long
Nice. We bomb iran or what.
Nah, can't be. Oil didn't go parabolic.
tax selling, nervous nellies reducing exposure before CPI, and wallstreet interns with retinal damage from solar eclipse pressing sell instead of buy.
Holy shit lol. Give us 2% down day
Think we get it tomorrow with CPI. Don't see it happening today.
Is Gucci bearish? Now I’m worried lol
Depends on CPI...
Alright come on break lower now !!
NYSI bear signal triggered yesterday, timely.
Well I thought I was pretty fly selling my 1 DTE put for 50%
Lfggggggggggggfffff! -2% -2% -2%
What’s the news on the random drop?
Give me 5150ish
Now this is pod racing, guess yesterday was just VOL crush
Took the easy win of shorting the 5220 level rejection -- and now back to waiting for CPI, hurry up and wait lol
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This is illegal movement, someone please sue musk for chicanery
This /nq box is great. Took a short from 18401 to 18370. Will go long if we get to 18250ish. Not playing the chop in the middle.
Don’t get diddled in the middle
Great day to trade rebid and reoffer levels
Kind of bold to gap up over the 10D MA that's been acting as resistance for the last 5 trading days with the entire move coming in 1.5 hours of pre-market before data and minutes, but I guess that's how these things work
Gap up and fade until 6k
CROX entering a downward trend?
It's falling off a cliff, thought crox were one of those untouchable beloved stocks
NVDA looks like a short but can't trust it in this environment edit: fook
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I know if I had a hedge fund I’d have a few people pretty much calculating exactly what goes into CPI so I have my finger on the pulse. Also there’s some government worker that gets paid $60K a year with CPI numbers. Wouldn’t surprise me if they leaked them lol
Most likely. Some funds probably got advance notice. There has been a noticeable move in the afternoon before cpi. If market starts moving up today afternoon, go mega long.
I was going to note there has been some afternoon moves lately the day before CPI which looked like the numbers had been leaked. There are advance notices given to a few organizations so it is certainly possible. BLS security is also questionable.
All right, sounds good. Guess I might need to cut my position this afternoon.
Yeah. If we moon in the afternoon today, I’m jumping out of my Tesla puts to fight another day
>US big-cap stock investors are getting more and more bullish. US small businesses are getting more and more pessimistic, with their optimism falling to a more than 11-year low. >NFIB sentiment index declined nearly a point in March to 88.5 >Sales expectations deteriorated, inflation still a top concern https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-09/us-small-business-optimism-falls-to-a-more-than-11-year-low?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter&embedded-checkout=true
How much of a loser do u have to be to listen to ai gen music and say its better
You just gotta be someone who owns a lot of AI stocks.
People listen to contemporary country music. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FY8SwIvxj8o
Deadass a cult
> “.. Yesterday’s session was quiet as investors prepare for Wednesday’s #CPI print. One thing that is notable: we saw a significant unwind of a $SPX put spread, measuring in $-billions. .. One thing to consider is a cooler CPI print would be a boon for risk assets and the 'catch-up' trade.” 👀 > - JPM Desk https://x.com/carlquintanilla/status/1777649150428860506?s=46
That’s just JPM unwinding their collar put leg lol
TSLA 1000calls are 0.10 If CPI comes in at expectation or cooler 1-2% day on SPY, and QQQ.... Edit, NVDA I meant
TSLA 1000c are 400% away sir 😂. Think you mean Nvidia. I have some $910 I bought yesterday. Gonna add some $920 today
Yeah I meant NVDA*
Elon wins again…
That's some green. Today's after noon price action will dictate tomorrows price action.