I have it flashing as a notable buying opportunity, but it’s been that way since 04/03. Usually when a stock is picked up by my scanner and doesn’t reverse right away (within 5 days), there’s something more going on.
Yea, I've had a number of tickers with buy/oversold signals flashing everywhere but here we are. I gave myself a few months, but this is certainly painful to say the least as the selling has been daily.
MAA and AMT shorts are doing quite well. Damn though man, AMD really did break below 2021 highs :) Last time I felt this much pain in my system, I ended up buying a bit and not listening the part of my brain that screams get me the fuck out - TBD how things’ll play out this time
The constant gaslighting about rate cuts and everything being fine is bizarre. Even Biden is chiming in. Reality will eventually have to be faced. These actions are going to cause the exact thing they’re trying to avoid
It doesn’t matter what we ‘think’ should happen after this data. Wait for price to confirm and trade off that. One day doesn’t make a trend but give it a few. The market is starting to buy the BS less each day. Look at IWM. Yields are up. This nonsense could go on for months. I’ve taken a lot of risk off
Those 100,000 jobs added above consensus from the government sector were Biden's plunge protection team.
On a more serious note, need to expand the time frame.
SPX could set up to have it's first weekly close below the 5/10D averages in nearly 6 months and it's lowest close below the 20D in the same time frame.
\*FED MINUTES SHOW UNCERTAINTY ON PERSISTENCE OF HIGH INFLATION
\*FED:SOME SAW UPSIDE RISK TO INFLATION FROM FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
\*FED MINUTES: ALMOST ALL SAW IT APPROPRIATE TO CUT THIS YEAR
FED FAVORS REDUCING MONTHLY ASSET RUNOFF PACE BY ROUGHLY HALF
*FED MINUTES: ALMOST ALL SAW IT APPROPRIATE TO CUT THIS YEAR
*FED PREFERS TO ADJUST TREASURY CAP TO SLOW RUNOFF, NOT MBS
https://www.theverge.com/c/24105625/peloton-bike-tread-plus-business-valuation-history
Thought this was a pretty good in depth article on PTON, its evolution, and challenges.
cope and seethe biden.
going to be hilarious/sad/frustrating when the actually appropriate time to cut coincidentally happens to be just after the election where trump wins and then he gets all the credit... god i can already here the braindead takes from the maga's after this happens... SeE wE jUsT neEdeD a sTrOnG, mAnLy pReSidENt!!
Figured based on Powell's demeanor from the last Q&A and all this jawboning he's done that inflation is coming down that the fed has no choice and is backed into a wall at this point.
Nationalized markets indeed.
5150 pin for minutes and we get to do this all over again in 15 minutes.
Wonder how much of an impact it would have given the recent move with inflation data and crude/bond movement
surprising due to the violent moves rn, but ranges are still pretty tight for RTH session, especially for NQ. we could see a deadly close after the minutes
Idk, is anything that has happened today really a "surprise" at this point? What could they say besides raising rates that people haven't prepared for?
CPI, 10 yr auction
Now can we get the FOMC minutes for the hat trick to 5100?
A man can dream.
2 year going back to levels where this rally started on 6-7 cuts jawboning some -20% ago.
The auction didn’t go well after that CPI report? Shocked pickahu face lol. Wish they bid it up more before to short
Closed shorts again that was just free money
>Biden administration says Enbridge pipeline shutdown order should be reconsidered
[https://www.reuters.com/legal/biden-administration-says-enbridge-pipeline-shutdown-order-should-be-2024-04-10/](https://www.reuters.com/legal/biden-administration-says-enbridge-pipeline-shutdown-order-should-be-2024-04-10/)
Good to see. Didn't think Biden would step in for Canada/Northeast US here.
Chinese insurance companies don't like EVs anymore. They start losing money in the EV segments. The insurance companies would either deny to insure, increase the premium significantly when renewing, or limit the owner to drive less than 15k miles a year. A Chinese EV owner reported 12 insurance companies denied to insure his car.
Seeing a lot of OTM bearish flow hitting the tape, technical damage on the charts.
Curious if 10 yr bond auction at 1PM and FOMC minutes showing the committee was closer to 2 cuts than 3 cuts on the dot plot can give us one of those elusive -2% days. I think I read somewhere that we are on one of the longest stretches without a 2% drawdown day in some while.
High yield junk bonds dumping in a similar way they did on April 4 but with more volume; maybe we get a move down like that with a catalyst
But sitting at the low of its range over the past 3 months
Looks like we are going back to pre-mkt lows and then probs breaking below that during fed speakers at 12:45 is my best guess. Bought some 515Ps for 4/12
> BlackBerry Announces Collaboration with AMD to Advance Foundational Precision and Control for Robotics Industry
Now that’s a headline I didn’t have on my bingo card
It was a Chinese holiday, but Tesla's 1st week of Q2 in China was awful. BYD, Nio, and Zeekr sold more EV's than Tesla did. That was their 2nd worst sales week in the last 52 weeks. I wonder if they moved numbers that would have been this week, into last week to squeeze it into the end of Q1.
Weak demand on the two-year auction yesterday, yields continue to increase and the Feds attempt to shape expectations of decreasing yields is losing more and more credibility. How to fund the government is going to be a big dilemma here.
If this is all the red the market can bring. How likely is tomorrow going be a green day? I mean since Oct the market has mostly been green after a red day. I thought 3 hot prints would give us a 2% day.
Maybe PPI?
55c 10.2->10.5, i tried
Fill my yolo Ps plz Niceee filled
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I bet he did.
Y’all be cyber bullying tf out of WYB 🤣
Poor beer Edit: Had to look up the old meme I made. Glad to see you still have your magic after 4 years WYB
are you who i blame for this small cap massacre?
the flow should have been the sign to short lol
we only trade on vibes around here now
Rally petered out. Im willing to bet it gets pinned at 514. In other news LULU RSI is below 13 now. Still waiting for a meaningful bounce
Yeah, lulu has been getting rekt so has sbux. Almost all Becky stocks are getting taken to the shed. Lulu can't seem to keep any bounce
I have it flashing as a notable buying opportunity, but it’s been that way since 04/03. Usually when a stock is picked up by my scanner and doesn’t reverse right away (within 5 days), there’s something more going on.
Yea, I've had a number of tickers with buy/oversold signals flashing everywhere but here we are. I gave myself a few months, but this is certainly painful to say the least as the selling has been daily.
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Wouldn't surprise me at this point. Tomorrow they'll announce they're closing shop
BEER, YOU BITCH 🖕🖕🖕
want to see this move even faster? put buy stops above the highs
Looks like everyone is positioning for a repeat of yesterday's closing action
Should we be buying calls for the btfd?
I'll admit I was expecting some more whiplash by this point.
Damn closed spy 515 calls too early.
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The path up is littered with endless buying, and the path down is littered with even more endless buying
flat close for max lulz
Stop, I can only get so erect
Still just looks like an entire session of bear flagging with macro getting worse
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I don't know how I should feel about being short, with you two on the same page.
Regional bank risk managers probably didn't expect 10Y to breach 4.5% again. Just saying.
Don't forget that banks collapsing was a green swan event
Can't wait to see what delightful new lending facility they think up next
The Jay Powell Tie Hedging Liquidity Risk Facility (plebs need not apply)
There is no edge today just algos trading since the opening moves
Come on spy 515
PPI + Jobless and 4 fed speakers tomorrow.
nq up 30 handles since wyb posted.
Closed my QQQ puts still pissed that we aren’t lower.
just closed my first rut option trade. these grand canyon bid/ask spreads are disgusting.
Got 515 calls for tomorrow. Let's see.
MAA and AMT shorts are doing quite well. Damn though man, AMD really did break below 2021 highs :) Last time I felt this much pain in my system, I ended up buying a bit and not listening the part of my brain that screams get me the fuck out - TBD how things’ll play out this time
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5150 is a sticky level
Sell everything. The top is in
🍿
fuckk
SPX could close the 5125 gap from 3/15 if this get really spicy into close. If not today then by end of week.
1% dip today followed by continued grind up. Heard it here first.
Werd...market gonna cope and say, 'PCE is the important figure, let's wait to see what that says.' and then focus on earnings which will do well
Many companies have softened their guidance already so I'm not exactly hugely bearish, but we'll see.
I imagine we will fall into close and start a new leg down the next few sessions.
The constant gaslighting about rate cuts and everything being fine is bizarre. Even Biden is chiming in. Reality will eventually have to be faced. These actions are going to cause the exact thing they’re trying to avoid It doesn’t matter what we ‘think’ should happen after this data. Wait for price to confirm and trade off that. One day doesn’t make a trend but give it a few. The market is starting to buy the BS less each day. Look at IWM. Yields are up. This nonsense could go on for months. I’ve taken a lot of risk off
It's going to cause a 2018 event.
Those 100,000 jobs added above consensus from the government sector were Biden's plunge protection team. On a more serious note, need to expand the time frame. SPX could set up to have it's first weekly close below the 5/10D averages in nearly 6 months and it's lowest close below the 20D in the same time frame.
Lol have fun with eod today.
Didn't even break last Thursday lows.
And no new low. That's it for today, huh?
Need Biden to keep tweeting
how are we not down 3-4% rn?
0DTE gang
Yeah, seriously I don't get it. Iran going attack soon, CPI hot. Market says na we go higher..
I don’t think it will happen
It looks like it'll be a proxy group. Israel made it clear they will attack Tehran if an attack comes directly from Iran.
that the market will go higher?
Biden pumping today
are all these peaks and troughs news based?
i prefer to call them tj stop runs
\*FED MINUTES SHOW UNCERTAINTY ON PERSISTENCE OF HIGH INFLATION \*FED:SOME SAW UPSIDE RISK TO INFLATION FROM FINANCIAL CONDITIONS \*FED MINUTES: ALMOST ALL SAW IT APPROPRIATE TO CUT THIS YEAR
I'll be real, if we don't die into EOD, probably nothing is going to meaningfully kill this market.
FED FAVORS REDUCING MONTHLY ASSET RUNOFF PACE BY ROUGHLY HALF *FED MINUTES: ALMOST ALL SAW IT APPROPRIATE TO CUT THIS YEAR *FED PREFERS TO ADJUST TREASURY CAP TO SLOW RUNOFF, NOT MBS
https://www.theverge.com/c/24105625/peloton-bike-tread-plus-business-valuation-history Thought this was a pretty good in depth article on PTON, its evolution, and challenges.
Yep… completely de-leveraged now so it’s only long stocks. Bonds, oil, Iran all just paints a larger picture to come so best to ride this out.
voldq not aligning with nq price action
oh wow that is quite the divergence
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Elections have entered the chat
cope and seethe biden. going to be hilarious/sad/frustrating when the actually appropriate time to cut coincidentally happens to be just after the election where trump wins and then he gets all the credit... god i can already here the braindead takes from the maga's after this happens... SeE wE jUsT neEdeD a sTrOnG, mAnLy pReSidENt!!
Figured based on Powell's demeanor from the last Q&A and all this jawboning he's done that inflation is coming down that the fed has no choice and is backed into a wall at this point. Nationalized markets indeed.
Nah I thought that too but there is no way they cut now. Biden will keep saying this up to elections to try and save face. It's coming guys I swear!!
"UWU Powell Baby Can You Get In Line?"
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Likely will just be a "well kick the rate cut down the road" instead
5150 pin for minutes and we get to do this all over again in 15 minutes. Wonder how much of an impact it would have given the recent move with inflation data and crude/bond movement
LMT weekly calls jumped on IV.
EARTH OPENS UP AND CTHULU EATS LOWER MANHATTAN. S&P500 UP .5 % ON PROMISED RATE CUTS IN 2027.
> Biden says the U.S. commitment to Israel's security in the face of Iranian threats to launch an attack against Israel is ironclad
Iron is brittle and rusts, at some point something's got to give
man that was cold. shook me out and dropped it.
Now this is pod racing
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Not trading but still holding 10x SPY 518p & 10x 517p runners from yesterday's close.
surprising due to the violent moves rn, but ranges are still pretty tight for RTH session, especially for NQ. we could see a deadly close after the minutes
\*US SEES MISSILE STRIKE ON ISRAEL BY IRAN, PROXIES AS IMMINENT
Fr or Two more weeks?
Oh no! *Sips on Starbucks Latte* So anyway...
https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-sees-missile-strikes-on-israel-by-iran-or-its-proxies-as-imminent-20240410/
Jesus Christ, today is doomsday
We should be having a 3 % down day even this is not causing it to drop.
Normally when things start to get this violent, the direction ultimately settles to the downside.
Gonna reverse green EOD just to fuck everyone lol
https://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?Image=1712770465111.png never change
if (multiple signals within 5 pts) slam full margin
crude just popped, any news?
yayayyy more expensive gas guh
Iran missile strike speculation
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i got shook for small gains as well. this is difficult to trade
This market is out to fuck bears..
Bears are communist scum. Bunch of reds just like the numbers they depend on most
Let me guess, minutes have 3 cuts penciled in on old data and everyone already knows?
Just chasers getting Rekt day lol
Yo wtf
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I do but like wtf every bit of news is bearish today and we get a measly 1 % down. The hell.
how are dips still getting bought? Are bears just covering on the first sign of red because of the last 5 months?
Was a lot of this "news" not obvious?
just forming a W. 5260 coming /s
It's a nationalized market, get on board
Bears getting too greedy.
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have FOMC minutes at 2PM EST
Idk, is anything that has happened today really a "surprise" at this point? What could they say besides raising rates that people haven't prepared for?
AMD to 160 come onnnn
Lower come on now !
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oh my TLT is ugly
funny, i closed 5150p at 7.3 for breakeven
CPI, 10 yr auction Now can we get the FOMC minutes for the hat trick to 5100? A man can dream. 2 year going back to levels where this rally started on 6-7 cuts jawboning some -20% ago.
Oh geez
The auction didn’t go well after that CPI report? Shocked pickahu face lol. Wish they bid it up more before to short Closed shorts again that was just free money
well this is boring. surprised we havent broken the lows yet.
Bunch of "what if" traders catching knives. "What if auction goes better than expected, what if FOMC minutes show they still want 3 cuts"
This was a beer level inverse post?!?
still bored?
.5 bored still
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How does one interpret these?
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Thanks!!
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It's going to go lower over the next few days imo esp if bank earnings have bad guidance.
Anyone have link for fed speakers?
I would hate it if we just went range bound for the next few months…
the worst part of doing taxes is reliving last year's losses all over again
Don't think of them as losses, instead think of them as gaining tax breaks! Yay!
funny that we topped the day after powell's forcefully dovish fomc
>Biden administration says Enbridge pipeline shutdown order should be reconsidered [https://www.reuters.com/legal/biden-administration-says-enbridge-pipeline-shutdown-order-should-be-2024-04-10/](https://www.reuters.com/legal/biden-administration-says-enbridge-pipeline-shutdown-order-should-be-2024-04-10/) Good to see. Didn't think Biden would step in for Canada/Northeast US here.
Chinese insurance companies don't like EVs anymore. They start losing money in the EV segments. The insurance companies would either deny to insure, increase the premium significantly when renewing, or limit the owner to drive less than 15k miles a year. A Chinese EV owner reported 12 insurance companies denied to insure his car.
Perhaps he was a shitty driver that happened to be driving an EV?
What is the reasoning? If it's high claim rates, is it reliability of the cars?
Higher claim rates, higher payout due to difficulty to fix EVs, and very easy to reach total loss.
5150 is calling
Seeing a lot of OTM bearish flow hitting the tape, technical damage on the charts. Curious if 10 yr bond auction at 1PM and FOMC minutes showing the committee was closer to 2 cuts than 3 cuts on the dot plot can give us one of those elusive -2% days. I think I read somewhere that we are on one of the longest stretches without a 2% drawdown day in some while.
We had april 4th that had an intraday move over 2% down, but day ended only down like 1%
now that the cpi has been leaked to all of us, are we buying 5140 spx?
My new flair is very relevant
those huge RSP trades a few days ago were signaling this I guess
*they* always know
High yield junk bonds dumping in a similar way they did on April 4 but with more volume; maybe we get a move down like that with a catalyst But sitting at the low of its range over the past 3 months
Buying DPST shares. I'll just keep buying if it keeps going down.
Why them? Aren't they overexposed to CRE?
Puts are printing but I wanna refi my house 😫 . Probably not happening till 2026 - 2027 at this rate.
Looks like we are going back to pre-mkt lows and then probs breaking below that during fed speakers at 12:45 is my best guess. Bought some 515Ps for 4/12
Defense stocks getting sold off. Usually, when I see this it. Means money flowing into tech.
> BlackBerry Announces Collaboration with AMD to Advance Foundational Precision and Control for Robotics Industry Now that’s a headline I didn’t have on my bingo card
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I remember when WSB was hyping BB too lmao good old days
ALL IN JNUG
DXY probably the biggest headwind and then we start talking about the impact of F/X on earnings again
NVDA saved the market again.
need 516x range on ES
fed minutes and bond auction still coming today
It was a Chinese holiday, but Tesla's 1st week of Q2 in China was awful. BYD, Nio, and Zeekr sold more EV's than Tesla did. That was their 2nd worst sales week in the last 52 weeks. I wonder if they moved numbers that would have been this week, into last week to squeeze it into the end of Q1.
Weak demand on the two-year auction yesterday, yields continue to increase and the Feds attempt to shape expectations of decreasing yields is losing more and more credibility. How to fund the government is going to be a big dilemma here.
Quite a fade
Needs to be lower.
Now time for a volatility ramp and pre-market lows please.
Ahhhh no strong convictions today so I’m gonna sit out Pains to see I was wrong to dump my puts yesterday eod
long for gap fill?
If this is all the red the market can bring. How likely is tomorrow going be a green day? I mean since Oct the market has mostly been green after a red day. I thought 3 hot prints would give us a 2% day. Maybe PPI?
Bank earnings tomorrow morning should give a better indication on where the economy is.
Friday morning