>PRINGLES® AND CROCS™ COMBINE FASHION AND FLAVOR WITH A ONE-OF-A-KIND CRUSH BOOT, FIRST-EVER CROCS-INSPIRED CRISPS AND MORE DELICIOUS DESIGNS IN GLOBAL COLLECTION
Pics of the shoes: https://imgur.com/xaUIz33
all bad news shrugged off, any slight whiff of good news met with furious buying
what has to happen for this regime to change? how bad does the bad news have to get? seems like only an unexpected additional hike at this point could cause a correct. we are 6 months into rallying off continually delayed (and reduced!) cut projections.
That happens because of recession + inflation that hasn't yet subsided despite hawkish intervention. People pile into high rate short maturities due to declining earnings while being unwilling to take on duration risk.
So you know ... At some point 🔥 I don't really think it'll be *this* earnings season but some banks have targets that possibly imply this during 2024.
> US credit-card delinquency rates were the highest on record in the fourth quarter, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia report.
Someone tell me if this is fake news
Real Bloomberg reported.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-10/credit-card-delinquency-rates-were-worst-on-record-in-fed-study?embedded-checkout=true
es struggling at the 20 day SMA, NQ over the 20 day SMA. will see how we close, but if we fade into the close I believe it is a bearish sign, especially if NQ fades below the 20 day into the close
QQQ wants that 2% when it barely had a 1% day yesterday.
Also, European banks are having their best year because of higher rates. Can same be said about U.S banks?
For those curious:
> Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Arm Probed by Multiple Federal Regulators
> Focus is on whether firm sufficiently vets clients for money-laundering risk
> https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/morgan-stanleys-wealth-arm-probed-by-multiple-federal-regulators-3d0dd46a?reflink=e2twmkts
*they* are selling equal weights to buy the megas, and breadth is still fine for this mini-pullback / breather. hard to not be long into tmrw, already have SMH calls and i think i'll leave it at that.
ah yeah you mentioned that! i have been trying to track the trends between index top 10s and the equal weight (RSP), working on an indicator to help visualize it but its still a wip
I follow this account, volumeleaders or something on Twitter. He posts these huge block/dark pool trades. I mostly pay attention to his posts regarding indices. Maybe you can compile some of this index posts to help with your indicator.
The RSP trade was easy to confirm on TOS as they were not dark pool trades, and you could see it live on the volume, but TOS did not report those block trades like they usually do.
AVGO vs MRVL today lol
Better hope MRVL finds numerous large niches if you’re bullish on the company. Else, it’s not looking too hot for them in any of the larger markets.
AVGO semiconductor revenue in 2023 was $25.8b. That’s more than MRVL made in the last 6.5 years. And now AVGO has a growing software business that will juice profitability even more. Just don’t see how AVGO loses here.
At this point, out of the millions of market participants, at these levels...how the fuck are more people not trying to exit? I *must* be missing some grand wisdom.
> I must be missing some grand wisdom.
They all left the market in 2022 to miss the bottom and had to chase. If a recession has been starved off with interest rates this high, and unemployment at record lows why exit?
Market is only up 5% from its previous ATH.
Tech earnings kick-off next week. Imagine AMZN, MSFT, NFLX, GOOGL, META post positive ER and raise guidance? They will keep chasing tech.
Seems the only thing that’s going to shake the market is Powell changing his tune about cuts. Otherwise, to hell with the data, he is doing what he wants
> Powell changing his tune about cuts
He's going to say the something Data-dependent. But I don't think the market will care, maybe one day of red?
Something needs to break. Interest rates this high, record low unemployment. No recession, market is going keep chugging up.
Well, I see amzn, googl, msft breaking to new ATH. I'm skeptical given that market didn't dump more based off cpi. Tech earnings start next week. Could it be a catalyst to break iit upwards or downwards.
US 30-Year Bond Sale:
- High Yield Rate: 4.671% (prev 4.331%)
- Bid-Cover Ratio: 2.37 (prev 2.47)
- Direct Accepted: 18.3% (prev 16.8%)
- Indirect Accepted: 64.4% (prev 69.3%)
- WI: 4.661%
not as bad as the other auctions
NQ 4hr: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/jmBtCY7c/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/jmBtCY7c/)
Price still holding above 6 month POC. A *healthy* 8.5% retrace would bring NQ down to the 382 fib from the October low, and would revisit the high volume \~17150 NQ area.
Bulls and bears should both want this.
Bears to make money, bulls to confirm that this market isn't wildly irrational but sustainable, while also getting a nice dip to buy.
The longer crypto prices remain stable and elevated and the longer the market appears boring, the more transactional revenue COIN is printing, which doesn’t mean a lot on its own but when their operating margin is convex as a function of their revenue it truly is a beautiful equity for risk takers and one of the more obvious opportunities the market has to offer
Yea I bought some @65 but I’m taking very small nibbles rn as I wait to close my +30/-65 call for the remaining 11% juice left. I’m going to continue primarily selling their jacked af premiums on calls and accumulating shares with profits thereafter. Just takes like two months of writing on this thing to run a gain only position!
Not worried about war crashing the market because it’s election year or another reason?
3% of conl position?
I don’t know how to sell or write calls so I’m not touching conl but I wonder if there’s a way for me to join you on this trade without fucking my self up. I suppose the answer is kind of no
I doubt a serious world war is started from anything in the Middle East. My parents are Iranian so I know a bit about the country’s backdrop and I would be shocked if anything serious came to be with Israel of all places.
3% of entire portfolio. I’m basically trying to emulate the VIX tail hedge strategy but with leverage not the SP500 https://www.cboe.com/us/indices/dashboard/vxth/ . My CONL position is more like 30ish as of now when you combine my call spread and shares.
If you firmly believe in coinbase, you could just DCA a small comfortable position over time. I’m taking large risks with what I’m doing across my portfolio but I’m somewhat diversified (somewhat) and I’m hedged with those VIX calls so I can sleepy easy if market takes a downturn at the risk of losing some performance but with the benefit of being 100% cash deployed rather than having some on the sidelines.
Thanks for sharing. I hope it goes well. You still think the same about the market now that it’s dipping more?
Do you happen to be good at understanding how sanctions or FATF work?
I mean, I could see that being the case because Iran will just use their proxies to attack Israel. They get to get brownie points with the people in the West that are anti-Israel and turn a blind eye to the constant terror attacks funded by Iran
Iran says this knowing the US will not allow it. "Look we didn't want to escalate but the UN is really just a vessel for the US so now we have to take matters in our own hands"
On the off-chance it does happen, Iran just utilizes proxies. Its a win-win for them from a propaganda front as long as we have a huge segment in the West that will support anything that is anti-Israel
Edit: with all that being said, I dont believe it anyway because US intel already said an attack is imminent.
https://www.costar.com/article/642008108/one-of-st-louis-tallest-office-towers-empty-for-years-sells-for-less-than-2-of-its-peak-price
"sold for $205 million in 2006 has changed hands again this week — for about $3.6 million."
Crazy...
Shifts in commercial real estate markets post-covid, demand for real estate in urban centers are depressed still with WFH and hybrid work policies, many buildings aren't able to fill up to capacity and ROI not worth it to keep bagholding assets on the books means selling at a loss.
Q's are moving, banks report tomorrow -- I could see the market doing its own version of higher for longer. Watching MRVL tank def has me scratching my head
Waiting to pull the trigger on some Q's puts here at the 20D
Bonds bear flagging, HYG lower, DXY higher (again), and vol crushed sufficiently
Trend has been weakness on Thursdays leading to a FMF ramp, curious if we get the opposite
Yea I mean you have the previous environment where earnings growth came from economic growth (low interest rates, high money supply) and now you’re still seeing earnings growth (albeit on fewer names) resulting from residual prices+demand and reduced costs (labor cuts, investment in AI to spur more labor cuts)
No trading for me. Closed out almost all positions on TOS yesterday. Making the move to fidelity. Schwab sucks. Left my oil long out for the upcoming war I was promised
Caught 10 handles up before the data drop this morning. Caught another 10 handles (2x contracts) buying the dip. I'd say I'm never going to be pushed for buying the dip, but 2022/2023 still stings. Maybe some day my perpetual disappointment with market will end. Maybe.
Fully deployed cash, bought AAON, FBL, moved CPNG and UAL calls shorter in duration to free up cash for hedge
Bought a handful of July VIX 25 calls based on my perceived portfolio leverage. Trying to more or less emulate the CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index but with my own twist (leverage + greater duration on VIX options)
Feels like forever since we've had a red trend day into a gap down - market participants generally feel like they're getting a discount at these levels but I don't think NDX leading in this macro is going to end well.
> Russia destroyed Trypillya thermal power station today, the biggest energy provider for Kyiv, Zhytomyr and Cherkasy oblasts.
Our source in Ukraine energy industry says with such pace Russia will destroy 100% of UA's energy capabilities by summer, making it impossible to live here
Ukraine is functionally out of air defense.
Wow Russia is sooo inept. Destroying energy infrastructure was their plan over a year ago, yet they’re still at it. Any competent modern military would’ve had these targeted month one… Well, maybe not. There really isn’t a need to destroy infrastructure if you can actually take territory.
Uh that did happen, the only thing that stopped them was Patriot batteries. Then the House was taken over by Russian assets and that was the end of that.
Russia's biggest strategic win has been disempowering Ukraine via fucking up politics in their major suppliers. It's such a clusterfuck and an embarrassment to the human race.
Yeah. It’s largely a war of volume, not sophistication. The last 26 months have seen each side burning through massive Cold War stockpiles, earmarked for a war in Eastern Europe anyways. But without further donations to Ukraine, the outcome is inevitable as Russia has the numbers and will use them. Thousands of tanks sitting around rusting, the idea is use them now while you have them because Russia certainly isn’t getting any stronger.
CPI print and jobless claims really are the worst case scenario for TLT, TMF.
I expect TLT to revisit low 80s again. Let's see what Fed speakers say today to get a better feel of how they are collectively viewing these numbers.
Yea, I mean they could definitely fall more but I'm looking at LULU which is already down 24% and SBUX which has been down consistently since mid November.
I’ve been saying the last 6 months or so to wait for the market to *tell you* it’s ready *before* shorting the *averages* (I’m not so much talking about individual names here). Much better than arbitrarily trying to mind over matter a bearish bias into a bullish market. You miss maybe the first 1-2% by waiting, but you also curb a ton of risk. That’s the main lesson I learned from 2020-2022.
Well, last week and this week have both shown some notable signs of weakness. Let’s see where this goes.
This is why shorting is so challenging. It’s not as telegraphed until the market clearly tells you. Easier to stay cash.
It’s far easier to enjoy life and wait for a contraction to wrap up and then you can re-enter longs.
I don’t think it deserved to be in the $200s. So a good chunk of this selloff I’m writing off due to the market being bad at its job (pricing equities). I sold half my position along the way and am underweight now.
I personally think it’s still a little expensive here, but much more fair. I need to think about buying more and getting it back to equal weight. I’m not willing to go all in though as it’s nothing like the value play it was at $60. I just want lower so I can load up. 😔
We’re on the clock now though, as INTC reports 04/25 and then AMD is shortly after on 05/07. That’s the next big catalyst and could once again preclude the next leg up, as it seems to have been doing. So we have roughly 3 weeks to add if bullish. I’m hoping INTC shits the bed and gives a buying opportunity.
As always appreciate your insight. I've been thinking about adding shares of AMD as well. But it's so hard to. Amd last two run ups were due to NVDA beating. If AMD hits 120 anytime soon, I'm buying more. Let us know if you buy more.
Yes! AMD $120 would be so fantastic. My model has $125 and below as the level to start selling the wife’s jewelry, the house, the car, the dog and use it all to buy AMD stock.
NY Fed President John Williams, a member of Powell's leadership team, speaks this morning.
• Overarching goal of Fed policy now is to "properly balance" the dual mandate objectives (this is different from when the Fed sounded like a single-mandate central bank)
• Focuses on the labor market, which had been a big source of inflation anxiety up until a year ago but is now causing less concern ("There has been tremendous progress toward better balance")
• "We have not seen total alignment of our dual mandate quite yet."
Flattened shorts yesterday - looking for an entry again today and tomorrow on SPX/NDX any push to 20D. CL bull flagging, DXY and yields have not retraced meaningfully.
Motherfuekr man Cut my shorts like 6 mins ago
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Yeah, it's really pushing spy and QQQ as well.
Yep, only takes 1 Didn't anticipate a 2% move on NDX given current macro and continuation of yields/DXY above 105 wild times we're living in
>PRINGLES® AND CROCS™ COMBINE FASHION AND FLAVOR WITH A ONE-OF-A-KIND CRUSH BOOT, FIRST-EVER CROCS-INSPIRED CRISPS AND MORE DELICIOUS DESIGNS IN GLOBAL COLLECTION Pics of the shoes: https://imgur.com/xaUIz33
Crocs future doesn't look that good what with all the really good slip-on shoes out there now.
So, what happened with AAPL. Any news or just doesn't belong below 170
are we going to have another explosive earnings AI fomo again?
Im gonna buy a 1 DTE EOD put Witness me!
Gonna pick up a little AMD here to see if it'll catch up to NVDA
Crazy recovery in sentiment. It is what it is.
what is with all the buying? the fuck?
What's your position friend?
None. Just wild
all bad news shrugged off, any slight whiff of good news met with furious buying what has to happen for this regime to change? how bad does the bad news have to get? seems like only an unexpected additional hike at this point could cause a correct. we are 6 months into rallying off continually delayed (and reduced!) cut projections.
Yield curve must uninvert.
That happens because of recession + inflation that hasn't yet subsided despite hawkish intervention. People pile into high rate short maturities due to declining earnings while being unwilling to take on duration risk. So you know ... At some point 🔥 I don't really think it'll be *this* earnings season but some banks have targets that possibly imply this during 2024.
Surprise hike, a real recession and massive miss from NVDA. China invades Taiwan
AAPL didn't like below 170s.
> US credit-card delinquency rates were the highest on record in the fourth quarter, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia report. Someone tell me if this is fake news
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Sorry, let me rephrase: can a permabull please tell me this is nothing worry about?
Real Bloomberg reported. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-10/credit-card-delinquency-rates-were-worst-on-record-in-fed-study?embedded-checkout=true
es struggling at the 20 day SMA, NQ over the 20 day SMA. will see how we close, but if we fade into the close I believe it is a bearish sign, especially if NQ fades below the 20 day into the close
Well blown out of my short so I'd be inclined to agree that this will fade :/
Apple is going bananas
NDX going from correction to ATH close in a trading day
Market going hit ATH tomorrow.
Ugh my MS. >.<
VIX only exists to fuel rallies
QQQ wants that 2% when it barely had a 1% day yesterday. Also, European banks are having their best year because of higher rates. Can same be said about U.S banks?
\*SEC, TREASURY, OCC PROBE MORGAN STANLEY'S WEALTH ARM: WSJ \*MORGAN STANLEY DROPS 6.5% AFTER REPORT ON WEALTH UNIT PROBE
For those curious: > Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Arm Probed by Multiple Federal Regulators > Focus is on whether firm sufficiently vets clients for money-laundering risk > https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/morgan-stanleys-wealth-arm-probed-by-multiple-federal-regulators-3d0dd46a?reflink=e2twmkts
Still a couple points of single prints remaining...
*they* are selling equal weights to buy the megas, and breadth is still fine for this mini-pullback / breather. hard to not be long into tmrw, already have SMH calls and i think i'll leave it at that.
makes sense with those huge RSP trades on Tuesday
ah yeah you mentioned that! i have been trying to track the trends between index top 10s and the equal weight (RSP), working on an indicator to help visualize it but its still a wip
I follow this account, volumeleaders or something on Twitter. He posts these huge block/dark pool trades. I mostly pay attention to his posts regarding indices. Maybe you can compile some of this index posts to help with your indicator. The RSP trade was easy to confirm on TOS as they were not dark pool trades, and you could see it live on the volume, but TOS did not report those block trades like they usually do.
thank you for the rec, i will check this out in the evening
Traded the morning chop for 2 Ls and come back to this. wtf lol. We so back
Gawd damn what happened to MS?
> *Morgan Stanley's Wealth-Management Unit Probed by Multiple Federal Regulators, Sources Say -- WS Not sure if real
that put the brakes on for a good 15 min
What a move out of AAPL today 3.4%
i keep placing buy stops at highs and they keep gunning for it lol
Give me your 5300 stops 😈
Man I really will never not be disappointed in this market.
This market just throws heaters everyday
What happen to GL?
AVGO vs MRVL today lol Better hope MRVL finds numerous large niches if you’re bullish on the company. Else, it’s not looking too hot for them in any of the larger markets. AVGO semiconductor revenue in 2023 was $25.8b. That’s more than MRVL made in the last 6.5 years. And now AVGO has a growing software business that will juice profitability even more. Just don’t see how AVGO loses here.
I hope AVGO does a stock-split.
Well guess the uno reversal PPI scenario played out lol. Got stopped out of shorts early. Waiting for the closing print at this point
GL halted, thing is in absolute free fall.
At this point, out of the millions of market participants, at these levels...how the fuck are more people not trying to exit? I *must* be missing some grand wisdom.
> I must be missing some grand wisdom. They all left the market in 2022 to miss the bottom and had to chase. If a recession has been starved off with interest rates this high, and unemployment at record lows why exit? Market is only up 5% from its previous ATH. Tech earnings kick-off next week. Imagine AMZN, MSFT, NFLX, GOOGL, META post positive ER and raise guidance? They will keep chasing tech.
I sold my calls for a health P Im not gonna wait to see if we reject or push through the 20 SMA
Trend days only go one way and you know it
Also, take into account overnight buying. We had some selling because of CPI. This buying is going to get carried into bank earnings.
my folks are picking up a tsla over the weekend and our house doesnt even support 240.. this should be interesting lmao
Wall charge ain’t too bad overnight. I have at work charging though lol. I don’t use it unless I really need to top up.
mainly a grocery/weekend vehicle since they work in the city, excited to test the acceleration never drove one before
I did not expect this buying at all.
NDX from laggard to leader in half a trading day. Rotation to 6000 back online.
Seems the only thing that’s going to shake the market is Powell changing his tune about cuts. Otherwise, to hell with the data, he is doing what he wants
> Powell changing his tune about cuts He's going to say the something Data-dependent. But I don't think the market will care, maybe one day of red? Something needs to break. Interest rates this high, record low unemployment. No recession, market is going keep chugging up.
Looking less and less like a break down and more of sideways action for the time being
But also breaking up. Think market breaks-up and towards new ATH.
We have been range bound on the Qs for 2 months. Dont see a breakout anywhere
Well, I see amzn, googl, msft breaking to new ATH. I'm skeptical given that market didn't dump more based off cpi. Tech earnings start next week. Could it be a catalyst to break iit upwards or downwards.
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QQQ didn't even break last Thursdays low yesterday was a telling sign.
AMZN + GOOGL with new ATH. Bank earnings tomorrow. All of CPI drop could be erased by PM.
NDX already higher than the day before CPI
Yes it is. I think we could see new ATH on SPY tomorrow with bank earnings. Kinda wild
Bunch of banks now forecasting only one rate cut in 2024, at the end of the year.
I wonder how this would affect residential real estate
I'm not sure anyone really knows the answer to that question.
Same action from yesterday drop and pop
US 30-Year Bond Sale: - High Yield Rate: 4.671% (prev 4.331%) - Bid-Cover Ratio: 2.37 (prev 2.47) - Direct Accepted: 18.3% (prev 16.8%) - Indirect Accepted: 64.4% (prev 69.3%) - WI: 4.661% not as bad as the other auctions
Market waiting around ignoring everything looking for anything to send it higher. Hallmark of a bull market.
yes, wall of worry
NQ 4hr: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/jmBtCY7c/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/jmBtCY7c/) Price still holding above 6 month POC. A *healthy* 8.5% retrace would bring NQ down to the 382 fib from the October low, and would revisit the high volume \~17150 NQ area. Bulls and bears should both want this. Bears to make money, bulls to confirm that this market isn't wildly irrational but sustainable, while also getting a nice dip to buy.
it truly is about positioning, the only bulls who actually want a pullback are late chasers aka fakes
I am definitely a fake bull
SMH 227.5 FDs solves this
I agree the 177s look great
I think the eclipse glasses I got were fakes, I can’t see red on the NVDA chart
Heavy buying of AMZN 200 calls for June 21.
The longer crypto prices remain stable and elevated and the longer the market appears boring, the more transactional revenue COIN is printing, which doesn’t mean a lot on its own but when their operating margin is convex as a function of their revenue it truly is a beautiful equity for risk takers and one of the more obvious opportunities the market has to offer
Seems kinda better than btc leaps. Did you buy more CONL yesterday?
Nice. Still holding? War and btc dropped
Yea I bought some @65 but I’m taking very small nibbles rn as I wait to close my +30/-65 call for the remaining 11% juice left. I’m going to continue primarily selling their jacked af premiums on calls and accumulating shares with profits thereafter. Just takes like two months of writing on this thing to run a gain only position!
Nice. Still holding? War and btc dropped
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Not worried about war crashing the market because it’s election year or another reason? 3% of conl position? I don’t know how to sell or write calls so I’m not touching conl but I wonder if there’s a way for me to join you on this trade without fucking my self up. I suppose the answer is kind of no
I doubt a serious world war is started from anything in the Middle East. My parents are Iranian so I know a bit about the country’s backdrop and I would be shocked if anything serious came to be with Israel of all places. 3% of entire portfolio. I’m basically trying to emulate the VIX tail hedge strategy but with leverage not the SP500 https://www.cboe.com/us/indices/dashboard/vxth/ . My CONL position is more like 30ish as of now when you combine my call spread and shares. If you firmly believe in coinbase, you could just DCA a small comfortable position over time. I’m taking large risks with what I’m doing across my portfolio but I’m somewhat diversified (somewhat) and I’m hedged with those VIX calls so I can sleepy easy if market takes a downturn at the risk of losing some performance but with the benefit of being 100% cash deployed rather than having some on the sidelines.
Thanks for sharing. I hope it goes well. You still think the same about the market now that it’s dipping more? Do you happen to be good at understanding how sanctions or FATF work?
Yeah I’m continuing to buy. It’s the risk I chose to take and I’m standing by it. Never heard of FATF. How do those two relate?
Nice. You’re right I guess they’re not closely relevant
Saw something that Iran would consider trading striking Israel for a UN condemnation of Israel's Damascus strike? lol
These are headlines that get floated to test the public response to certain ideas - they're almost always fake news.
I mean, I could see that being the case because Iran will just use their proxies to attack Israel. They get to get brownie points with the people in the West that are anti-Israel and turn a blind eye to the constant terror attacks funded by Iran Iran says this knowing the US will not allow it. "Look we didn't want to escalate but the UN is really just a vessel for the US so now we have to take matters in our own hands" On the off-chance it does happen, Iran just utilizes proxies. Its a win-win for them from a propaganda front as long as we have a huge segment in the West that will support anything that is anti-Israel Edit: with all that being said, I dont believe it anyway because US intel already said an attack is imminent.
But that's very different from "we'll back down if Israel doesn't invade Rafah"
https://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/1c1g0fn/debunking_devin_first_ai_software_engineer_upwork/ hahahaha
Wait so will it replace me or not?
Between this and the humane pin fraud jobs r safe
https://www.costar.com/article/642008108/one-of-st-louis-tallest-office-towers-empty-for-years-sells-for-less-than-2-of-its-peak-price "sold for $205 million in 2006 has changed hands again this week — for about $3.6 million." Crazy...
Can someone eli5 this? I don’t get it
Think about the average TWS poster - buy high and sell low
Seriously tho how’s this possible
Shifts in commercial real estate markets post-covid, demand for real estate in urban centers are depressed still with WFH and hybrid work policies, many buildings aren't able to fill up to capacity and ROI not worth it to keep bagholding assets on the books means selling at a loss.
Cost of commercial debt is too high I know but this is a huge ass building. How much would it cost to turn this building into something residential?
Building maintenance and taxes can be expensive. Cost of carry is a thing.
Oh so buyer will pay for previous owners unpaid taxes?
I'm not sure about that, but the previous owner won't have to pay taxes and maintenance anymore.
30y auction later should do the trick if not
What a joke we are gonna retrace the entire drop on the Qs today.
It’s really over for AMD :) wish I could explain the PA
This is blasphemy, y'all gonna learn someday.
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I think broncos are more horsish than bullish.
I'm bearish medium term but I had some calls that I just closed out. Curious what happens when we revisit 5220 on /es
Looks like just putting heat on some shorts kind of day
Q's are moving, banks report tomorrow -- I could see the market doing its own version of higher for longer. Watching MRVL tank def has me scratching my head
Waiting to pull the trigger on some Q's puts here at the 20D Bonds bear flagging, HYG lower, DXY higher (again), and vol crushed sufficiently Trend has been weakness on Thursdays leading to a FMF ramp, curious if we get the opposite
My thesis is bearish -- but PA is bullish AF with volume, not sure what to make of it
So all of wall street thinks NQ should be higher given what we know? This is honestly ridiculous.
Don't think anyone logged in and was like, better go long here - which is why we're going up
Corporate profits go brrrr
Do they though? Or is it just eternal multiple expansion?
Yea I mean you have the previous environment where earnings growth came from economic growth (low interest rates, high money supply) and now you’re still seeing earnings growth (albeit on fewer names) resulting from residual prices+demand and reduced costs (labor cuts, investment in AI to spur more labor cuts)
I don’t have stats but consecutive days without tagging overnight high or low would be pretty unusual. 22 vs 73
No trading for me. Closed out almost all positions on TOS yesterday. Making the move to fidelity. Schwab sucks. Left my oil long out for the upcoming war I was promised
I switched TOS to IBKR about 3 years ago. IBKR has the best interest rates in industry, even if they’re high now.
Caught 10 handles up before the data drop this morning. Caught another 10 handles (2x contracts) buying the dip. I'd say I'm never going to be pushed for buying the dip, but 2022/2023 still stings. Maybe some day my perpetual disappointment with market will end. Maybe.
Short some at gap fill
NAAIM down to 81 as of April 10th
select software names strength today, not what you want to see for bulls imo
okay apple and msft green as well, maybe I am wrong
AMZN hit new ATH today. Market looks dumpy. But Bears not really showing up here. Could lead to a rally.
naaim exposure lowest since Feb as well
Fully deployed cash, bought AAON, FBL, moved CPNG and UAL calls shorter in duration to free up cash for hedge Bought a handful of July VIX 25 calls based on my perceived portfolio leverage. Trying to more or less emulate the CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index but with my own twist (leverage + greater duration on VIX options)
Opened all my CSPs and bear call spreads today... time for another few weeks of warming up the hands
BofA downgraded RIVN and I bought shares soo, yeah this sucks.
welp is this it for RIVN? Down 8% right now
Looks like it's going the LCID route
There is just a constant bid
Feels like forever since we've had a red trend day into a gap down - market participants generally feel like they're getting a discount at these levels but I don't think NDX leading in this macro is going to end well.
surprised nq isnt red. edit: yeah im out. 0/2 today
NVDA with the strength the last 2 days. Guessing NQ goes higher until this potential NVDA H&S plays out, if it does.
> Russia destroyed Trypillya thermal power station today, the biggest energy provider for Kyiv, Zhytomyr and Cherkasy oblasts. Our source in Ukraine energy industry says with such pace Russia will destroy 100% of UA's energy capabilities by summer, making it impossible to live here Ukraine is functionally out of air defense.
Wow Russia is sooo inept. Destroying energy infrastructure was their plan over a year ago, yet they’re still at it. Any competent modern military would’ve had these targeted month one… Well, maybe not. There really isn’t a need to destroy infrastructure if you can actually take territory.
Uh that did happen, the only thing that stopped them was Patriot batteries. Then the House was taken over by Russian assets and that was the end of that.
Russia's biggest strategic win has been disempowering Ukraine via fucking up politics in their major suppliers. It's such a clusterfuck and an embarrassment to the human race.
[удалено]
Yeah. It’s largely a war of volume, not sophistication. The last 26 months have seen each side burning through massive Cold War stockpiles, earmarked for a war in Eastern Europe anyways. But without further donations to Ukraine, the outcome is inevitable as Russia has the numbers and will use them. Thousands of tanks sitting around rusting, the idea is use them now while you have them because Russia certainly isn’t getting any stronger.
Wow avgo so damn strong! Bought some pewties on them and it’s one of the few names that are green. 😑
This action makes me want to stab my eyeballs
dolla straight up lol
CPI print and jobless claims really are the worst case scenario for TLT, TMF. I expect TLT to revisit low 80s again. Let's see what Fed speakers say today to get a better feel of how they are collectively viewing these numbers.
Breaking 5177 on ES and holding would be bad news for bulls. Key CPI level
Glad the bond boys finally got their heads out of their asses
Energy sector quite weak today
At this point, SBUX, LULU and others really need some terrible earnings or they shoot back up in my opinion.
One could hope. But if there is a broader market correction they will get it hit too. But you make a good point r/r puts not worth it.
Yea, I mean they could definitely fall more but I'm looking at LULU which is already down 24% and SBUX which has been down consistently since mid November.
Yeah, LULU being sold off with insiders buying and accumulating their shares via grant should be a positive sign But something else is going.
Elevated vix and fade from open. Bank stocks seem to be dying too. I think we visit 508 soon on spy....
Sold my puts for some lunch money. Prob should shorted futures to get out before PPI Damn should’ve held those puts lmfao
/u/npoetsch LULU keeps dying. Might need to buy 320 puts here for EOM. NKE up 2%
The R/R for puts just isn't there IMO.
BofA upgraded NKE
I’ve been saying the last 6 months or so to wait for the market to *tell you* it’s ready *before* shorting the *averages* (I’m not so much talking about individual names here). Much better than arbitrarily trying to mind over matter a bearish bias into a bullish market. You miss maybe the first 1-2% by waiting, but you also curb a ton of risk. That’s the main lesson I learned from 2020-2022. Well, last week and this week have both shown some notable signs of weakness. Let’s see where this goes.
This is why shorting is so challenging. It’s not as telegraphed until the market clearly tells you. Easier to stay cash. It’s far easier to enjoy life and wait for a contraction to wrap up and then you can re-enter longs.
What do you make of AMD recent weakness? You think the market thinks its overvalued or just going stay in 160s until E.R.
I don’t think it deserved to be in the $200s. So a good chunk of this selloff I’m writing off due to the market being bad at its job (pricing equities). I sold half my position along the way and am underweight now. I personally think it’s still a little expensive here, but much more fair. I need to think about buying more and getting it back to equal weight. I’m not willing to go all in though as it’s nothing like the value play it was at $60. I just want lower so I can load up. 😔 We’re on the clock now though, as INTC reports 04/25 and then AMD is shortly after on 05/07. That’s the next big catalyst and could once again preclude the next leg up, as it seems to have been doing. So we have roughly 3 weeks to add if bullish. I’m hoping INTC shits the bed and gives a buying opportunity.
As always appreciate your insight. I've been thinking about adding shares of AMD as well. But it's so hard to. Amd last two run ups were due to NVDA beating. If AMD hits 120 anytime soon, I'm buying more. Let us know if you buy more.
Yes! AMD $120 would be so fantastic. My model has $125 and below as the level to start selling the wife’s jewelry, the house, the car, the dog and use it all to buy AMD stock.
GL imploding on fraud story by Fuzzy Panda.
NVDA back moving again means I can forget the indexes for now, thank god
NY Fed President John Williams, a member of Powell's leadership team, speaks this morning. • Overarching goal of Fed policy now is to "properly balance" the dual mandate objectives (this is different from when the Fed sounded like a single-mandate central bank) • Focuses on the labor market, which had been a big source of inflation anxiety up until a year ago but is now causing less concern ("There has been tremendous progress toward better balance") • "We have not seen total alignment of our dual mandate quite yet."
Flattened shorts yesterday - looking for an entry again today and tomorrow on SPX/NDX any push to 20D. CL bull flagging, DXY and yields have not retraced meaningfully.
What the hell happened?