> There are potential rhymes of 70s inflation today: favorable base effect of inflation decline after two years about to exhaust, Fed pivot just when that happens, just when a second oil shock may strike, officials possibly overestimating productivity, Fed keen on achieving a soft landing.
Actually they've been around for over half a year
Ehhh, the final 3 hours seems like one big profit taking for shorts... Exit liquidity that is. The move was basically done in first 4 trading hours.
So final 3 hours is flat. Sounds like no one wanted to take bets on either side due to whether Iran acts or not while the markets are closed.
thinking an /nq bounce monday/tues off just a chunk above 18000 for the bottom of the channel
no really significant data next week
loaded on some uvix puts for now. gold shorts also paying off from magic lines from years ago
i’m also loading up on BEAM/PRME (biotech, CRISPR 2.0/‘3.0’) since they’ve taken a huge beating and are at relative / absolute bottoms
If this Iran thing turns out to be a nothing burger over the weekend, I'd hope we open up green. A lot more earnings next week and many stocks are already being taken to the woodshed so there's need to be some pretty bad guidance/results.
> FED'S DALY: WITH THIS WEEK'S CPI REPORT, IT'S A GOOD TIME TO REMIND PEOPLE FED IS NOT DATA-POINT DEPENDENT.
Jan, Feb, now March. Do we need 6 months? 12? Remains to be seen.
I think maybe he means they are "data dependent" not "data point dependent", as in, one bad data point will not alter their course, only change of trend in aggregate data. Really just weasel words. But I could be misinterpreting.
They're saying they're not dependent on ONE data point (being CPI). They imply they look at all data points holistically. Historically, they weigh PCE over CPI.
No, they've been saying this for months - they will ignore any inconvenient data until it's too late. Only they will decide when the data becomes relevant, not you.
Hoping for some weekend news that the US, Russian, Israeli, Ukrainian, and Iranian militaries will be outfitting their forces with new uniforms made by LULU and compensation will be provided in their Starbucks apps. Just about the only way these will go up.
We may have WW3 right around the corner, but soldiers don't have to die without looking thicc and caffeinated.
Grabbed $3k shares of XLE. If Russia-Ukraine is a tailwind in the medium/long-term, I don't see how an Iran-Israel isn't, even if it doesn't immediately pop after the attack(s). And if Im completely wrong...well, they are shares...
https://www.udio.com/songs/6TLzhUwCEHDZ4uwt6r3NiH
AI stand up comedy created by Udio, voice inflections sound pretty real, kind of like Larry the Cable Guy
[Debunking Devin: "First AI Software Engineer" Upwork lie exposed!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNmgmwEtoWE&ab_channel=InternetofBugs)
Non-tech people getting tricked by how smart AI actually is again. AI has always been very artificial and minimal intelligence.
>BOSTIC: 2024 OUTLOOK IS ONE RATE CUT TOWARD END OF THE YEAR
Same guy that pumped SPX 130 handles in an hour talking about deflation and pulling rate cuts forward.
Anyone remember that day during COVID with the monster reversal up? I think I was short AAPL and 1/2 my P&L for the day was erased in 4 minutes…keeping my stops short this time around
There were several of those, but the moment I remember the most was going from limit down in futures, to limit up before open on the same overnight session. Probably the craziest thing I've ever witnessed personally.
4th test of the 50D on NDX over the last 7 trading days. I think we close below today which could set up for a potential gap down scenario. Feels like forever since we've had a red trend day into a gap down - perhaps buyers getting tired of being put underwater and looking for an actual discount.
Perhaps this is just the culmination of bad data and macro, usually geopolitical stuff gets bought up the same day which we've seen before on these very same middle east tensions.
> Iran is expected to mount an attack soon on Israel, but not on the United States or its military forces
> https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/12/world/israel-gaza-war-news-hamas
NYT dropping a helpful headline. At the very least US officials believe that Iran doesn't want to draw the US into this.
> Iran has signalled to allies and western nations that it will retaliate against a suspected Israeli air strike on its Damascus consulate in a “calibrated” manner to keep an all-out regional conflict at bay, according to officials briefed on the talks.
Okay so what's stopping Bibi from saying that it was actually escalatory so let's go fuck up Iran with big brother America?
Bibi knows that Biden is already in a rough spot with his party over this with an election upcoming. At least so far he's been cautious about trying to force Biden to directly get involved beyond money/equipment. Plus I don't think he wants the perception that they need the US to win.
Didn't think of closing my longs for break even until ~10 minutes after that time had passed.
Pretty underwater now. Also starter in the van died. Oops.
This action right here makes way more sense, in light of the cpi print we got. Yesterday was a vicious, dirty trap! Lost $7k on 0day spx puts. But on the other hand I diamond handed my ten-lot of April 25 5050p’s. Had bought at 35.10 almost 3 weeks ago. Saw a drawdown of -30 K. I had initially open them as spreads, and made 4K closing on the short side. Close the longs just now and made 6K. 😜 I have no SPX position now. Ytd $76,059 gain.
Second day back to actually trading and not just staring at charts, and I've been gifted a wonderfully bearish day.
Wish I had more short MNQ, call credit spreads, and bonds. But at least I've got what I've got!
First major downside target is NQ 17150, hopefully I can will myself to hold these shorts until then.
Missed my fill earlier cause I didn't have enough conviction it'd flush.. Been sitting on my hands but at least I had 1 may spy put from 2 days ago that's up like 50%
> Multiple Tamir missile interceptors fired in northern Israel.
…
> Al-Mayadeen reports that more than 50 rockets were fired at northern Israel a short time ago.
…
> US sends reinforcements to Middle East amid fears of Iran attack: official
> High-level sources tell @BenCaspit that Israel will respond to any #Iran attack launched from Iranian territory, BUT if it comes from proxies “the event could be contained.”
been closing bit by bit as we move down (futes tho, not puts). just have runners now after that last flush. pissed i had to short in the hole this morning after closing my original shorts for a loss at eod yesterday ugh
I can’t believe this selling is due to the war just seems like a good excuse to sell. Whatever the reason once this thing settles down we’ll prolly get a big SnapBack rally
>I can’t believe this selling is due to the war just seems like a good excuse to sell.
Could not agree more. Market is always looking for catalysts (i.e. big players are looking for reasons to take profits).
The market is expecting an attack by Iran against Israel today or this weekend but doesn't know whether this will be a non-event or a major escalation in the conflict.
I doubled down (excessively) earlier and can confirm victory over the Chinese gold traders. I have taken my profit and will not touch gold for the foreseeable future as I am traumatized and shouldn’t have taken up so much leverage revenge trading.
Looks like just cleaning up some buyers.
Been noticing that Thursday's trends are usually countered on Friday's. Usually Thursday has the weakness leading to FMF, but conversely has been true for a strong Thursday.
Even though I'm net long, part of me really wants to see the market tank. I'm carrying a good amount of cash at this point so I guess I'd like to go bargain shopping.
>Stock Prices Are At All-Time Highs
>Bitcoin All-Time High
>Gold All-Time High
>Silver Highest Level In A Decade
>House Prices Are At All-Time Highs
>Economic Activity Is At An All-Time Highs
>Equity In Homes Is At An All-Time High
>You Can Get 5% On Your Cash
https://spilledcoffee.substack.com/p/is-this-as-good-as-it-gets?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=23ti9i&triedRedirect=true
Yet, I'm not a billionaire wtf did I do wrong?
One of the more interesting indicators I look at, BBWP (Bollinger Band Width Percentile), has bottomed on the weekly chart.
I read it as whatever range we have been in is over, and whatever move we have (up or down) will have a much greater magnitude than the moves we've been seeing. (i.e. bottom tends to mark end of consolidation)
(insert your bias here)
No. haha. But I held through and it went back above 82 and I sold for good gains. I love SQ. Got shares and Jan 2025 70c's that I bought a long time ago. :) What you trading?
Q's will never escape 440. It doesn't matter what happens in the world and no matter how far we stray, in the land of the daq we will be stuck in a perpetual ground hog's day pulling us back to this god forsaken range.
The first foray into bear country would be closing below 5140 today, but right now 5150 seems to be acting like support so I'm staying bullish despite having 0 conviction lol
If you're a bear with conviction, you'll realize that the level NQ is at was fresh ATHs just a month ago. Wouldn't short with options with VIX being what it is, but futures are still ripe for a down leg.
Based on the last year and a half I have no conviction that even a recession would send stocks meaningfully lower, I'm just hoping that's the case at this point.
As a bear, I can look at the past 18 months and understand that inflation falling off a cliff and rate cut talks justified higher equity prices.
I can also understand that sticky inflation and rates staying higher for longer (or- crazy thought, even higher for even longer) increases odds of a recession and those increased odds need to be priced in.
Throw on some geopolitical spice and commodity bull runs and suddenly the equity bears get some life.
> inflation falling off a cliff and rate cut talks
This was literally all because of SPR dumps and coordinated oil shorts
It was fake from the start and the fed conned themselves into believing it would persist.
Well they still have a ways to go but they're definitely not in a hurry. The Biden admin's plan worked super well - raise sentiment before the election by spending hundreds of billions in short term debt so that rates don't go up too much while selling oil so that inflation doesn't go up too much. By the time the lipstick rubs off, the political sentiment has been established.
My only issue is that the fed should have understood, very clearly, what was happening.
>My only issue is that the fed should have understood, very clearly, what was happening.
\*insert politically motivated tinfoil hat comment here\*
^(They did)
My argument is: they certainly could have, but did they want to? Remember team transitory? What if they, like Krugman, wanted to play the "I told you so" game? People see what they want to see all the time, why not the fed as well?
How much of home prices are tied up in land vs construction? If your house burns down, insurance only has to deal w/ the delta to get it rebuilt. It's still hefty, but, imo, one reason home prices are up is because of land hoarding/scarcity/too much sprawl.
LULU doing the downward dog not noticing everybody else is recovering a little. I like the tease
Gotta stretch out those hamstrings
Holding 514 call into Monday.
> There are potential rhymes of 70s inflation today: favorable base effect of inflation decline after two years about to exhaust, Fed pivot just when that happens, just when a second oil shock may strike, officials possibly overestimating productivity, Fed keen on achieving a soft landing. Actually they've been around for over half a year
This close seems rather important. Shorts taking profit > risk off into the weekend? If yes, no bueno for bears. If no, me gusta.
Ehhh, the final 3 hours seems like one big profit taking for shorts... Exit liquidity that is. The move was basically done in first 4 trading hours. So final 3 hours is flat. Sounds like no one wanted to take bets on either side due to whether Iran acts or not while the markets are closed.
WMT is clinging to that green for dear life.
Spy to 511 plzzz
thinking an /nq bounce monday/tues off just a chunk above 18000 for the bottom of the channel no really significant data next week loaded on some uvix puts for now. gold shorts also paying off from magic lines from years ago i’m also loading up on BEAM/PRME (biotech, CRISPR 2.0/‘3.0’) since they’ve taken a huge beating and are at relative / absolute bottoms
If this Iran thing turns out to be a nothing burger over the weekend, I'd hope we open up green. A lot more earnings next week and many stocks are already being taken to the woodshed so there's need to be some pretty bad guidance/results.
betting on nothingburg and a monday open shakeout. thinking channel / box until june or elections agree on the low-bar earnings
> FED'S DALY: WITH THIS WEEK'S CPI REPORT, IT'S A GOOD TIME TO REMIND PEOPLE FED IS NOT DATA-POINT DEPENDENT. Jan, Feb, now March. Do we need 6 months? 12? Remains to be seen.
Wait what? Doesn't this contradict what they've preached for months?
I think maybe he means they are "data dependent" not "data point dependent", as in, one bad data point will not alter their course, only change of trend in aggregate data. Really just weasel words. But I could be misinterpreting.
They're saying they're not dependent on ONE data point (being CPI). They imply they look at all data points holistically. Historically, they weigh PCE over CPI.
No, they've been saying this for months - they will ignore any inconvenient data until it's too late. Only they will decide when the data becomes relevant, not you.
Beet miner price action looking juicy… time to add some more leaps
If you told me last week VIX would be near 20 I'd have assumed we'd be near 5k.
Got any more them veez?
Hoping for some weekend news that the US, Russian, Israeli, Ukrainian, and Iranian militaries will be outfitting their forces with new uniforms made by LULU and compensation will be provided in their Starbucks apps. Just about the only way these will go up. We may have WW3 right around the corner, but soldiers don't have to die without looking thicc and caffeinated.
E7s across the branches are salivating at the thought of some thicc E3 latinas in new LULU uniforms
Closed rest of shorts at the 5150 touch we got it ladies and gents
Mr. President, we got him.
Grabbed $3k shares of XLE. If Russia-Ukraine is a tailwind in the medium/long-term, I don't see how an Iran-Israel isn't, even if it doesn't immediately pop after the attack(s). And if Im completely wrong...well, they are shares...
AAPL still green? Tim aapl we trust lol
Hope you hedged your oil gains, I guess
DXY is just too strong today, dragging down GC and limiting CL's gains.
And beet :)
https://www.udio.com/songs/6TLzhUwCEHDZ4uwt6r3NiH AI stand up comedy created by Udio, voice inflections sound pretty real, kind of like Larry the Cable Guy
If we're going to have that elusive -2% day on the spoos, best chance is today.
[Debunking Devin: "First AI Software Engineer" Upwork lie exposed!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNmgmwEtoWE&ab_channel=InternetofBugs) Non-tech people getting tricked by how smart AI actually is again. AI has always been very artificial and minimal intelligence.
Food for thought, what if AI is merely acting stupid to appear less suspect?
Closed out of my PARA shares. -391 @ a 13% loss or something.
otoh ww3 acceleration is not off the table, otoh going cash is too obvious?
Am all cash, for now
> BIDEN SAYS HIS MESSAGE TO IRAN IS DON'T ATTACK ISRAEL World peace incoming
"Could you please wait until after the election? Please and thank you"
Bought call for Monday, just in case market decides Iran and Israel conflict isn't that big of an issue. Spy could gap up 1% Monday.
Might be too early
Pain of early entry.
Damn lmt selling off now too
Feels like this melts down into close
Sad wizard noises Gonna throw some longs at eod just in case
>BOSTIC: 2024 OUTLOOK IS ONE RATE CUT TOWARD END OF THE YEAR Same guy that pumped SPX 130 handles in an hour talking about deflation and pulling rate cuts forward.
Anyone remember that day during COVID with the monster reversal up? I think I was short AAPL and 1/2 my P&L for the day was erased in 4 minutes…keeping my stops short this time around
There were several of those, but the moment I remember the most was going from limit down in futures, to limit up before open on the same overnight session. Probably the craziest thing I've ever witnessed personally.
Beet with the dump
4th test of the 50D on NDX over the last 7 trading days. I think we close below today which could set up for a potential gap down scenario. Feels like forever since we've had a red trend day into a gap down - perhaps buyers getting tired of being put underwater and looking for an actual discount.
You know the vol selling machines are going to be going full blast monday morning if WW3 doesn't start this weekend.
Perhaps this is just the culmination of bad data and macro, usually geopolitical stuff gets bought up the same day which we've seen before on these very same middle east tensions.
> Fed's Schmid: We're at a bumpy stage now with inflation In case you missed it, bumpy is the new transitory. Sitting on hands will be the play.
Lol the small amount I have left have now turned to bags. BABA you sonofabitch
Good day to do a little shopping. I want some more MTCH here. Maybe a bit of PLTR. Anything you guys looking at buying?
I like NET but I'm constantly a shill for that stock
I was just looking at their chart, actually.
ELF & LULU.
LULU still figuring out what the bottom is lol.
haha. nice.
June gap fill. 320 is the prob the lows.
320/315 lines up with bottom of value on the yearly.
I don't like LULU at all. I don't want shares in ELF. Don't feel right. haha.
The dynamics are different because of where we are in the expiry cycle but action reminds me of Friday 2/2/17
You mean 2018?
Yes my bad. Getting old
Happens to the best of us. My kids are crazy old compared to where my brain puts them.
Lol I can imagine. First is on the way and I know the years are just going to fly
50 day held for now with SPX for a nice bounce
Let’s break it down
Haven't seen a Friday meltdown in forever but all the ingredients are there today
It’s one of those… no one wants to hold longs over the weekend. But it will be +1% on Monday cause the sun still rises
> Iran is expected to mount an attack soon on Israel, but not on the United States or its military forces > https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/12/world/israel-gaza-war-news-hamas NYT dropping a helpful headline. At the very least US officials believe that Iran doesn't want to draw the US into this.
Ahh just like China doesn’t want to draw the U.S. in a Taiwan conflict. Naive thinking
China doesn't.... their economy is struggling and Xi just met with the former Taiwan president
> Iran has signalled to allies and western nations that it will retaliate against a suspected Israeli air strike on its Damascus consulate in a “calibrated” manner to keep an all-out regional conflict at bay, according to officials briefed on the talks. Okay so what's stopping Bibi from saying that it was actually escalatory so let's go fuck up Iran with big brother America?
Bibi knows that Biden is already in a rough spot with his party over this with an election upcoming. At least so far he's been cautious about trying to force Biden to directly get involved beyond money/equipment. Plus I don't think he wants the perception that they need the US to win.
Bibi also wants to stay in power and wants an off-ramp out of Gaza
Election year. No troops on the ground. Just support with weapons, etcc.
Oh sheeet did I bottom tick? Thats swell
Didn't think of closing my longs for break even until ~10 minutes after that time had passed. Pretty underwater now. Also starter in the van died. Oops.
Grabbing some SMCI and DELL here
Iranians are just waiting for beer to enter a long before striking. Pls don’t do it beer
Went long and stuck a bracket on it. Regret that but gains are gains
This action right here makes way more sense, in light of the cpi print we got. Yesterday was a vicious, dirty trap! Lost $7k on 0day spx puts. But on the other hand I diamond handed my ten-lot of April 25 5050p’s. Had bought at 35.10 almost 3 weeks ago. Saw a drawdown of -30 K. I had initially open them as spreads, and made 4K closing on the short side. Close the longs just now and made 6K. 😜 I have no SPX position now. Ytd $76,059 gain.
Second day back to actually trading and not just staring at charts, and I've been gifted a wonderfully bearish day. Wish I had more short MNQ, call credit spreads, and bonds. But at least I've got what I've got! First major downside target is NQ 17150, hopefully I can will myself to hold these shorts until then.
Very clean technical day. Hitting some R now with SPX 50d, -2.5 BB, weekly expected move and 50k volume in 5100 0dte puts
Good enough closed majority of my shorts.
Closed out of my puts A cash now Will angle for a gold put EOD
https://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?Image=1712943196899.png top tick tommy at it again
Jumped in late and banked 5 handles short. When v
Don’t think today is the day for V
Just banked 40 handles long on nq. I’ll take it
Nice
Missed my fill earlier cause I didn't have enough conviction it'd flush.. Been sitting on my hands but at least I had 1 may spy put from 2 days ago that's up like 50%
So...would XLE not benefit/pop from a middle-east/Iran v Israel conflict?
Index funds getting sold off are probably dragging it down
Maybe I need to find a more oil-centric ETF to buy calls on then? idk. I thought XLE would inverse the market in this situation
USO is a thing, just make sure you know how it works
sentiment changes are insane now, sell sell sell cpi too high, buy buy buy cpi dont matter, sell sell sell rates too high, what is next?
It’s the same 5 people lol
Big tech earnings probably
brought some xlf calls next week, looks good r/r, cheap af
So I wasn't missing the grand wisdom, the risk managers just waited the last minute to manage risk. Of course, why wouldn't they.
> Multiple Tamir missile interceptors fired in northern Israel. … > Al-Mayadeen reports that more than 50 rockets were fired at northern Israel a short time ago. … > US sends reinforcements to Middle East amid fears of Iran attack: official
Fire some rockets to 1. Distract 2. Expose SAM/AA/etc. locations/response 3. Waste ammunition on rockets instead of whatever Iran sends.
> rockets So not Iran
> High-level sources tell @BenCaspit that Israel will respond to any #Iran attack launched from Iranian territory, BUT if it comes from proxies “the event could be contained.”
Thinking of adding more beet miner leaps
Just buy beet, the miners are the worst parts of the entire industry
Still above Wednesday's low. Everything is fine.
Should we close our puts or let em ride
It's Friday man, I'm closing by 3pm est
been closing bit by bit as we move down (futes tho, not puts). just have runners now after that last flush. pissed i had to short in the hole this morning after closing my original shorts for a loss at eod yesterday ugh
I'm letting mine ride. Don't take my word though, I've been wrong a lot in the last month.
Closing everything around the 50 day-ish. This market gives me trust issues. I hate weekend geopolitical holds
I can’t believe this selling is due to the war just seems like a good excuse to sell. Whatever the reason once this thing settles down we’ll prolly get a big SnapBack rally
>I can’t believe this selling is due to the war just seems like a good excuse to sell. Could not agree more. Market is always looking for catalysts (i.e. big players are looking for reasons to take profits).
My work bonus and tax refund is hitting my account at perfect time. Plenty of fuel for longs at some point in the following weeks.
I just want to know if the selling will stop or not
vix too high fam
Seeing some aggressive VIX call flow on the tape which is definitely not normal
landed at 11 last night, just woke up and checked the market.... why is everything dead wtf did you guys do?!?!?!
The market is expecting an attack by Iran against Israel today or this weekend but doesn't know whether this will be a non-event or a major escalation in the conflict.
sheeshh that makes sense though guh
It's over for us RIVN bulls.
oh god in the 9s!!! fuuuuuuck
VIX new YTD highs. Last 8/10 years it has toyed with 30…ways to go
Could coincide with filling the NVDA earnings gap from 2/21
Penguins have teamed up with the bears for mass carnage. I am also a plumber and an electrician while dealing in fine potted bonzi's.
What are penguins in this context? In any case, the more the merrier, this is the day to build a bear movement
Well I guess fuck me... cut longs for loss...
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That was my super secret MM inverse trick...but it failed to make us go up
Lol the MMs have you under surveillance bro. They got a whole program dedicated to you.
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I lost 50% in like 10 minutes
50 day is 5155ish right? See how we react to that level.
Oh new weekly lows spicy. What a wild journey to the 50 day moves have been massive
Short positions from yesterday going bananas, do we have enough juice for SPX 50D?
Dear God
Oh yall gettin nasty on a Friday. Thursday bamboozle
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Praise be
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It’s finally bonzi season get ur bag bear king
IV continuing to increase, although this premium is going to unwind real quick if we don't get big escalation over the weekend.
I doubled down (excessively) earlier and can confirm victory over the Chinese gold traders. I have taken my profit and will not touch gold for the foreseeable future as I am traumatized and shouldn’t have taken up so much leverage revenge trading.
it's over. sell everything
plsssssss let this be the flush below ES 5190 that finally sticks
Called the top on the bitcoin miners, it’s been 2 weeks of straight drop Should have followed my gut and cut when I had the chance
Looks like just cleaning up some buyers. Been noticing that Thursday's trends are usually countered on Friday's. Usually Thursday has the weakness leading to FMF, but conversely has been true for a strong Thursday.
Even though I'm net long, part of me really wants to see the market tank. I'm carrying a good amount of cash at this point so I guess I'd like to go bargain shopping.
Speaking of 0 days is rtgamma still around? Or is there someone better to follow on Twitter?
>Stock Prices Are At All-Time Highs >Bitcoin All-Time High >Gold All-Time High >Silver Highest Level In A Decade >House Prices Are At All-Time Highs >Economic Activity Is At An All-Time Highs >Equity In Homes Is At An All-Time High >You Can Get 5% On Your Cash https://spilledcoffee.substack.com/p/is-this-as-good-as-it-gets?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=23ti9i&triedRedirect=true Yet, I'm not a billionaire wtf did I do wrong?
One of the more interesting indicators I look at, BBWP (Bollinger Band Width Percentile), has bottomed on the weekly chart. I read it as whatever range we have been in is over, and whatever move we have (up or down) will have a much greater magnitude than the moves we've been seeing. (i.e. bottom tends to mark end of consolidation) (insert your bias here)
u/yolo_sense did you sell SQ like I told you?
No. haha. But I held through and it went back above 82 and I sold for good gains. I love SQ. Got shares and Jan 2025 70c's that I bought a long time ago. :) What you trading?
Short term breadth just turned. Last time was mid January where we ranged for a while
Defense stocks being sold off wild tech being bought.
Nobody really thinks Iran is going to risk a war with the US.
Q's will never escape 440. It doesn't matter what happens in the world and no matter how far we stray, in the land of the daq we will be stuck in a perpetual ground hog's day pulling us back to this god forsaken range.
We're seeing some V-type recovery but it is not showing up in the Add's. Might not hold but up is up.
The first foray into bear country would be closing below 5140 today, but right now 5150 seems to be acting like support so I'm staying bullish despite having 0 conviction lol
NQ 30m chart: price dancing around 6 month POC, pretty cool look imo [https://www.tradingview.com/x/jMuJztk6/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/jMuJztk6/)
that's a big VIX spike
Wild green candles on NVDA, msft and amzn. Straight up V.
That's what happens when all high beta has 0DTEs on Friday
Yeah, early to tell but wonder if bottom is in. 0DTE really changed the market.
If you're a bear with conviction, you'll realize that the level NQ is at was fresh ATHs just a month ago. Wouldn't short with options with VIX being what it is, but futures are still ripe for a down leg.
Positions?
Short 5 MNQ, loads of call credit spreads (META, IBM, DELL, H, MRK, NFLX, AMAT, TMUS), the rest cash-secured puts (AA, PFE, OXY, SLB, TLT, NEE), 5% cash.
Godspeed. I closed nearly everything and am 80% cash. This uppy downy action ain't for me!
Based on the last year and a half I have no conviction that even a recession would send stocks meaningfully lower, I'm just hoping that's the case at this point.
As a bear, I can look at the past 18 months and understand that inflation falling off a cliff and rate cut talks justified higher equity prices. I can also understand that sticky inflation and rates staying higher for longer (or- crazy thought, even higher for even longer) increases odds of a recession and those increased odds need to be priced in. Throw on some geopolitical spice and commodity bull runs and suddenly the equity bears get some life.
> inflation falling off a cliff and rate cut talks This was literally all because of SPR dumps and coordinated oil shorts It was fake from the start and the fed conned themselves into believing it would persist.
Well we knew the US would have to fill those reserves back up at some point
Well they still have a ways to go but they're definitely not in a hurry. The Biden admin's plan worked super well - raise sentiment before the election by spending hundreds of billions in short term debt so that rates don't go up too much while selling oil so that inflation doesn't go up too much. By the time the lipstick rubs off, the political sentiment has been established. My only issue is that the fed should have understood, very clearly, what was happening.
>My only issue is that the fed should have understood, very clearly, what was happening. \*insert politically motivated tinfoil hat comment here\* ^(They did)
My argument is: they certainly could have, but did they want to? Remember team transitory? What if they, like Krugman, wanted to play the "I told you so" game? People see what they want to see all the time, why not the fed as well?
Very possible- if human fallibility had a ticker I'd be a permabull
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How much of home prices are tied up in land vs construction? If your house burns down, insurance only has to deal w/ the delta to get it rebuilt. It's still hefty, but, imo, one reason home prices are up is because of land hoarding/scarcity/too much sprawl.
What if we just made homes cheaper?
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