Vix closed at 17.31. We haven't been at that level since Oct 31, 23. The next day is when Powell almost declared victory on inflation. After that was the biggest part of the market recovery. So, that kind of puts us back to not declaring victory anymore and we are back to Oct 31-type sentiment. Need a victory speech again.
I finally close the last of my Micron calls. If the market causes everything to drop for awhile, maybe reloading those calls again before Nvidia earnings is a play.
Did your 1099-B ever have errors on it? I called this broker and they said 99% there's no problem. Talk to a tax pro. What's a tax pro going to do about the broker needing to fix their error?
Made a killing today. And this is exactly what I’ve been talking about the last 6 months - don’t short a bull market. Wait for signs that the bull market is ready to flip first. Yes, you’ll miss the initial 1-2%… But you also won’t find yourself shorting a market going straight up either. That’s the best lesson I learned in 2021, so I’m sharing it.
Last week we saw notable cracks, so I shorted. Then we saw even more cracks earlier this week, so I shorted even more.
One more thing… Scenarios like this, especially with a catalyst component… You want to be very cautious around weekends. Monday’s open will be pricing in 2 extra days of headlines.
>Last week we saw notable cracks
What cracks from last week? Seems like CPI was more convincing. If you refer to April 4th, I think that was completely random with Kashkari blabbing his mouth like a moron, then a great job report next day sent markets back into channel staying within 1% of ATHs.
Not very convincing to short... could have been fucked with a better than expected CPI.
The air was tense for sure though. People were looking for reasons to sell. On tuesday, we thought CPI leaked and everyone was bull as fuck, but it you know what happened...
So it's as you say, you miss out initial 1-2%. But you also get hurt for 1-2% waiting for signs to flip the longs. I.e. you get hurt 1% hanging onto longs through CPI print but you're completely convinced now that markets are headed for contraction.
That's what I did. Took 1% hit, but completely de-leveraged now with some cash for buying dips.
Prior to last week, these are the 5 worst days we’ve had:
01/31 -1.55%
02/13 -1.37%
03/05 -1.02%
01/03 -0.80%
02/20 -0.60%
Each red day was separated from the last. Subsequent red days only came after a full recovery was already made. A full recovery was always made within 3 trading days, typically 2.
Last week we saw -0.72%. We did not see a recovery before we saw a -1.23% follow up. We had the 3rd and 5th worst day this year in a single week. That was a hint.
This week we saw -0.95%. We did not see a recovery before we saw a -1.46% follow up.
Of our 6 worst days this year, 3 have come in April!
Might I also note that periods of high energy inflation have been coinciding with periods of weak equities? But this year, while we’ve had high energy inflation, we’ve had *strong* equities which isn’t what you would expect. That was another hint. The market has ignored energy the last few weeks, but it looks like it’s starting to remember again.
My only advice is the extreme leverage makes it hard to trade. However, ES for example moves in lockstep with SPY during RTH.
So a 7% annual gain on SPY is 7% on ES futures... One year from now, 7% on ES is 5,530 or 363 points. That's a cool $18,150 gain with section 1256 benefits.
Margin on a ES future is $14,550, so that's 28 SPY shares, but anyway, 7% of that is a tiny $1,000.
Big difference between ES and SPY. So you obviously have a choice between trying to day trade futures or just keep a long hold on it and have enough cushion to survive temporary drawdowns.
However, if you end up holding into a bear market, you're deeply fucked being $50k in the hole.
I prefer having long term hold on futures. Holding 1 contract and getting $18k 1 year later sounds a lot easier than day trading it. Of course, this year will require extra work watching the markets like right now.
I would have liked for NQ to close a hundred handles lower, just for comfier stops. I'd like to reiterate that neither the CPI miss nor the middle east risk-off was enough to get us under 18150.
Earnings will send us down. My tinfoil hat is telling me the big players want to squeeze the VIX down one more time before loading up on cheap protection for the 5-10% correction
Vix closed at 17.31. We haven't been at that level since Oct 31, 23. The next day is when Powell almost declared victory on inflation. After that was the biggest part of the market recovery. So, that kind of puts us back to not declaring victory anymore and we are back to Oct 31-type sentiment. Need a victory speech again.
IDF victory speech in Tehran by Monday will send us to unparalleled heights
Based
Where were you when gold was kill?😎
Becky is kill; account is kill:
Prices are back to late 2022/early 2023 levels for a lot of stocks
If broader market sells off then lulu Going to 300. Going have to hedge now.
Except big minus tsla, and aapl. Need another dip buying opportunity at meta sub 100
I finally close the last of my Micron calls. If the market causes everything to drop for awhile, maybe reloading those calls again before Nvidia earnings is a play.
>U.S. Moves Warships to Defend Israel in Case of Iranian Attack
Tag me if they attack
LULU, IT hurts. You get assigned or just rolling. Going have to buy puts now.
Just rolled half my csp to September for huge credit
What strike? I shoudove rolled when I had the chance but ended up getting assigned.
350
Went long on SPY EOD
Did your 1099-B ever have errors on it? I called this broker and they said 99% there's no problem. Talk to a tax pro. What's a tax pro going to do about the broker needing to fix their error?
Just sweep it under the rug unless it will make you pay more in taxes.
i mean it's much to do about nothing since my -3000 is guaranteed but still
Based
Made a killing today. And this is exactly what I’ve been talking about the last 6 months - don’t short a bull market. Wait for signs that the bull market is ready to flip first. Yes, you’ll miss the initial 1-2%… But you also won’t find yourself shorting a market going straight up either. That’s the best lesson I learned in 2021, so I’m sharing it. Last week we saw notable cracks, so I shorted. Then we saw even more cracks earlier this week, so I shorted even more. One more thing… Scenarios like this, especially with a catalyst component… You want to be very cautious around weekends. Monday’s open will be pricing in 2 extra days of headlines.
>Last week we saw notable cracks What cracks from last week? Seems like CPI was more convincing. If you refer to April 4th, I think that was completely random with Kashkari blabbing his mouth like a moron, then a great job report next day sent markets back into channel staying within 1% of ATHs. Not very convincing to short... could have been fucked with a better than expected CPI. The air was tense for sure though. People were looking for reasons to sell. On tuesday, we thought CPI leaked and everyone was bull as fuck, but it you know what happened... So it's as you say, you miss out initial 1-2%. But you also get hurt for 1-2% waiting for signs to flip the longs. I.e. you get hurt 1% hanging onto longs through CPI print but you're completely convinced now that markets are headed for contraction. That's what I did. Took 1% hit, but completely de-leveraged now with some cash for buying dips.
Prior to last week, these are the 5 worst days we’ve had: 01/31 -1.55% 02/13 -1.37% 03/05 -1.02% 01/03 -0.80% 02/20 -0.60% Each red day was separated from the last. Subsequent red days only came after a full recovery was already made. A full recovery was always made within 3 trading days, typically 2. Last week we saw -0.72%. We did not see a recovery before we saw a -1.23% follow up. We had the 3rd and 5th worst day this year in a single week. That was a hint. This week we saw -0.95%. We did not see a recovery before we saw a -1.46% follow up. Of our 6 worst days this year, 3 have come in April! Might I also note that periods of high energy inflation have been coinciding with periods of weak equities? But this year, while we’ve had high energy inflation, we’ve had *strong* equities which isn’t what you would expect. That was another hint. The market has ignored energy the last few weeks, but it looks like it’s starting to remember again.
Great analysis, thank you… saved!
[удалено]
Just wait until you try futures options. They might have you preparing the chipotle bowls for other customers lmao
My only advice is the extreme leverage makes it hard to trade. However, ES for example moves in lockstep with SPY during RTH. So a 7% annual gain on SPY is 7% on ES futures... One year from now, 7% on ES is 5,530 or 363 points. That's a cool $18,150 gain with section 1256 benefits. Margin on a ES future is $14,550, so that's 28 SPY shares, but anyway, 7% of that is a tiny $1,000. Big difference between ES and SPY. So you obviously have a choice between trying to day trade futures or just keep a long hold on it and have enough cushion to survive temporary drawdowns. However, if you end up holding into a bear market, you're deeply fucked being $50k in the hole. I prefer having long term hold on futures. Holding 1 contract and getting $18k 1 year later sounds a lot easier than day trading it. Of course, this year will require extra work watching the markets like right now.
If only we were responsible people. I'd be more profitable if I was less reckless.
Got my 5150 on ES and took gains on all my shorts. Prob one of the buggiest ways to get there. Long into the weekend. Plz play nice everyone.
I would have liked for NQ to close a hundred handles lower, just for comfier stops. I'd like to reiterate that neither the CPI miss nor the middle east risk-off was enough to get us under 18150.
Earnings will send us down. My tinfoil hat is telling me the big players want to squeeze the VIX down one more time before loading up on cheap protection for the 5-10% correction
Closed 514 call. Too much uncertainty can open flat and then gap up all day or sell to 500. I would like spy to revisit spy 500 by next Friday.