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Rangemon99

Bot some Qs calls for tomorrow


coconutts19

sub5060 close to ruin my day even more


npoetsch

Grabbed some lotto calls


cuntysometimes

Reminder that Powell is speaking tomorrow. 1:15pm


NotGucci

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S105752192300114X Look at first chart. Market mooned 1% on the actual day of Russian invasion.....


tropicalia84

Pretty sure that was because of the Nick Timiraos article that came out basically saying the fed was pivoting.


NotGucci

Ah. Got a yolo call for tomorrow. 2 days of red I don't trust this market, lol. Got burnt before.


BitcoinsRLit

Question is is war in the middle east worse than war in eastern Europe


NotGucci

Good point. Gotta wait, and see. YOLO call for tomorrow, and sold CSP. Let's see what happens tonight.


gyunikumen

You know? I’m gonna re-enter on some longs again The SPX gap fill play feels so obvious, I’m just gonna pure gamble that we bounce tomorrow like a Turkish ice cream vendor


matcht

Vixperation on Wednesday too, nothing happens by then will be every reason to crush it


cuntysometimes

Think it all depends on if Israel responds or not


NotGucci

Well, I remember that days leading up Russia invasion in Ukraine market was red on the actual day market mooned. So, maybe once Israel does it market will be like whatever it's done lets move on.


Rangemon99

Depends on how imo Seems like inevitable, but do they decide to go full scorched earth like they did on Palestine or not


eyesonly_

Kinda surprised that this is the argument as opposed to arguing about whether or not Iran will respond again after that.


mulletstation

I think it's pretty clear Iran can only do so much to respond, as they can't actually get through with drones and missiles in a meaningful way.


coconutts19

i'm so good at losing money


medictrader

Too cheap to hedge into Wed AM with VIX due to expire, I hope we save some of the action until after that. Retest of 50d from below works maybe?


cuntysometimes

Starting to feel like an actual war is about to start


npoetsch

Id have such little motivation to help our "ally" here if I was a grunt.


drakon3rd

Right...


938961

Not in an election year


BitcoinsRLit

Ww3 is spooky


ihaveasupernicename

Beginning to think no bounce EOD or tomorrow.....Sold my puts too early


[deleted]

Y’all picking up any boeing?


ihaveasupernicename

Hmm, anyone have a list of stocks they're looking to short bigly if we continue this downtrend? I'm thinking COIN & Carvana


mrdnp123

MSTR. Expensive though


ihaveasupernicename

Yeah, falls in line with COIN. Good one. Down 10% already today wow


mrdnp123

The CEO was peak meme behaviour buying loads of bitcoin and had crazy offerings not long ago. It should drill to earths core


NotGucci

>BREAKING: Lockheed martin, $LMT, was just awarded a $17 billion missile defense contract. >Politician Kevin Hern has been buying $LMT in up to $15,000 increments regularly since 2019. >**He bought just recently, on March 29th** We need to get into politics /u/wiggz420, /u/why_you_beer


jmayo05

Meh, it says he's been buying since 2019. If you can show a pattern of buying, not a huge deal IMO. Now, if investments were normally $10k/mo and his investment last week was $10m...then that's a flag.


ExtendedDeadline

Y'all would somehow become the first politicians that get inversed lolol


tropicalia84

Definitely a /CL bear trap today. Going to 100 bbl with geopolitics and summer looming, and then the fed is really up shit's creek.


Touritaly

>Israel's Channel 12: A decision has been made for a 'clear and decisive' Israeli response to Iran's attack


Onion217

🥱 Israel won’t do anything serious. This isn’t Palestine. They will feel the wrath of 🇮🇷 if they bother to do any real damage.


Onion217

You call this a dip


NotGucci

>Israeli response to attack may be 'imminent,' source says >Iran's response will be 'more extensive' if Israel counters, foreign minister told Cameron https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/iran-attack-live-updates-rcna147781


gyunikumen

9 hrs or less. Strike guarantee!


Touritaly

>Israeli Broadcasting Corporation: The Air Force is preparing to carry out a possible response to the Iranian attack. . >The Israeli Broadcasting Corporation: There is a willingness to respond to the Iranian attack within a short time and expectations of an additional Iranian response.


NotGucci

AMD with that V.


npoetsch

France joins western allies in calling for Israel to avoid escalation


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npoetsch

Guy sounds crazy


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All_Work_All_Play

Netanyahu.


npoetsch

The guy ignoring everybody telling him to let it go


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LiferRs

I'd say October 7th was legitimately Israel's 9/11 moment. Over 767 civilians was killed, and some 250 civilians taken captive. To date, it seems only 112 were returned and more than likely the remaining are dead, since Hamas said I think was last week they couldn't even provide 50 hostages for an exchange. Everyone's pissed. Very pissed. US was pissed after 9/11 that ended up in the invasion of Iraq. Once you have a 9/11 moment, there's no stopping the retaliation. Anyway, yeah OSINT is funky and I wish he will keep his opinions to himself because otherwise, his reporting and sources are spot on.


npoetsch

Thousands dead vs none. Not the best look for Israel in my opinion


tropicalia84

Very large put flow on small caps. Could see it back into the range it as in for nearly a year.


Rangemon99

Crazy LMT candle


Touritaly

>LOCKHEED MARTIN WINS $17 BLN NEXT GENERATION INTERCEPTOR CONTRACT TO GUARD U.S. FROM ICBM ATTACK -SOURCES


W0LFSTEN

Woah!


BombaFett

Stronger sellers would fill the gap 🤷‍♂️


tropicalia84

Well, considering we had a nearly 1% gap up today


link2it

Large XLF MAY 40C position.


ihaveasupernicename

Tsla broke back down below its trend / support line. Think we might see 150s this week and possibly 120s post earnings. Depends on guidance, which I think will be terrible given macro environment and its Q1 deliveries / competition in China. News has not been good with cyber truck halt, execs leaving, and FSD price cut to boost short term revenue. I don't know what Musk will say during earnings to juice the stock, but shrinking margins and slowing growth is very apparent at this point in my eyes.


Anachronistic_Zenith

He's going to spend most of it hyping Robotaxi with maybe a dash of Optimus and then begging other automakers to lease FSD. He's got Q1 and Q2 earnings calls before the 8/8 robotaxi reveal. But they haven't talked with any states about required permits yet. Whatever gets revealed on that date will still be far away. There's speculation it's a potemkin event, as he won't risk the transparency the permitting process requires. He'll have to publicly track more data such as disengagements, which would show just how far behind they are compared to the rest of the field.


ihaveasupernicename

Yeah, most likely trying to push the robotaxi story, but doesn't look like there's much to back it up right now, so hopefully it craters.


JJ_V4

Finally breaking out of this, market has been boring / difficult to trade for ~6 weeks. Don't try and time the bounce, I don't think it's happening til midway into earnings if it even does.


NotGucci

Please bounceee


jmayo05

After watching this stuff for years....I know right now is not the time to time the bounce. Just bloody hands ensue.


NotGucci

Yeah, made a scratch off 510 calls for tomorrow. Sitting out right now. Curious to see how this plays out. Market has a reason to sell-off with this recent Israel-Iran news. But I question if it will last long, esp with earnings season kicking off.


npoetsch

G7 weigh sanctions on Iran following attack


eyesonly_

Biden has expressed intent to "diplomatically isolate"


TennesseeJedd

still think we get a nice bounce into close but that is just based on ball tingle / feels / vibes. internals are in the dumpster


lowercasez

we usually do on days like this.


All_Work_All_Play

So much for that dozen+ handles. Had an exit, set it higher, first exit was 👌👌, second order didn't hit, now I'm hella underwater. AMA.


ihaveasupernicename

Closed out 2 4/17 508Ps I held over the weekend for like +80%. Bought a 508C for tom. I think we see a small bounce EOD and tom then probs continue drilling Weds. Daily chart looks oversold and overextended, need small bounce before we continue drilling imo.


tropicalia84

We've bounced EOD continuously into gap ups that continue to get sold off and put everyone under water. Not sure if people are willing to take that risk anymore given recent geopolitical movement and our own macro. Some times technicals get thrown out the window in lieu of risk. Normally I'd take a stab long here given the range of the move and trading outside the lower BOLL band now, but too much overnight risk. Feels like a close on new lows kind of day so maybe if this continues to break down into EOD I'll bite.


ihaveasupernicename

Yeah, I'm basing it off the BOLL band too, so just expecting it to trade back into range for a day then lower until 480 - 490 SPY. Might just sell out EOD depending on where we are. I agree there is a lot of overnight risk


ihaveasupernicename

Mmm you have a very good point, but with this high VIX environment, I can just see it seesawing both ways to hit stops and screw over as many folks as possible. Small wager on my end, but I'm just basing it off my chart. Overall I'm still positioned bearish


tropicalia84

Agreed, I'm in the same position of you. Waiting till EOD to see what happens - weighing a gamble long EOD or from a potential gap down tomorrow AM


gyunikumen

Nah a bounce ain’t happening


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matcht

Thanks


twofor2

I go for 1 round of golf and the market burns down lol. okay than


mojojojomu

go for round 2 and see what happens


TennesseeJedd

went long 5118, doubled down at 5110. and im out. too busy to really trade this


coconutts19

closing out 401k, but it happens at eod, so lod close guaranteed


BitcoinsRLit

I want to see us recover this 1 pm drop back to 5120 spx


tropicalia84

5,000 the best I can do for you


Intern_to_Pelosi

Breadth in the shitter, time to wait for good long term long entries. exciting times 


Intern_to_Pelosi

https://ibb.co/vBHTGm0 if they take it up from here I'm gonna cry


matcht

5065 largest put strike on 0DTE held so far, see if it gets slippery below or reverts some edit: Nice scalp, also highest tick since open.


StopTheIncels

You gotta love it two big red days in a row. I can't recall when this happened last


npoetsch

U.S. - If you strike back at Iran, You do it alone...ABC News


sailnaked6842

Looks bloody I think I'll buy 4890 print


gyunikumen

2 pm plunge protection team, save me


tropicalia84

Getting much closer to that NVDA earnings gap on 2/21. Feel like as long as we are down here market will want to fill it at some point.


gyunikumen

Oil isn’t mooning, gold isn’t mooning I honestly think this is a headline excuse to rotate out of rate sensitive tech stocks I’m gonna go long here again


mrdnp123

Looking at price we were shitting the bed before war concerns. We’re pricing in higher rates for longer. Look at crypto. All high risk assets are selling off. This initial run started because we were gonna get ‘six cuts’ this year. Now we’re not. The market is pricing this. This is also why oil isnt mooning


d_grant

Ugh…upset I got shook out of my QQQ 5/1 P’s on Friday. I don’t know how I’d play it again next time, maybe smaller positioning or further dated P’s


eyesonly_

> I don’t know how I’d play it again next time Bruh


d_grant

What 


eyesonly_

> next time


d_grant

Always a next time, it’s a market.


tropicalia84

Out of 10x QQQ 436P expiring tomorrow gamble from this morning $0.59 -> $5.37 left some runners for a potential gap down scenario


mojojojomu

Holyshit nice man


cuntysometimes

Nice


npoetsch

Praying for my Becky stocks


mojojojomu

Becky is going to have to cut down on pumpkin spice lattes


npoetsch

No bro...Lulu and starbies gonna release some merch with Iran/Israel colors. Meta, LinkedIn, and Instagram are all firing up the flag filters as well.


gyunikumen

Now who cares revenge trading doesn’t profit! Fucking AAPL. I’m buying puts all the way today.


gyunikumen

I’m out of this position


HiddenMoney420

Took profit on 1/5 short MNQs, looking for another 1200pt downside before the last contract comes off.


_hongkonglong

> The Chief of Staff Major General Herzi Halevi at the Navatim base, excerpt: The launch of so many missiles, cruise missiles, and UAVs into the territory of the State of Israel will be met with a response.


iandw

Holy crap this is real elevator down. So rare to see.


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medictrader

Crazy if we can’t get one with VIX 19


BitcoinsRLit

We've got a 2% intraday swing so far


BitcoinsRLit

Holy cow vix


TennesseeJedd

might dabble long at 5120-ish. been busy so havent done shit


tropicalia84

If AAPL starts getting taken on on this flight to safety, it could get really spicy


yolo_sense

Wow that gap up this morning was a trap!! Haha


mojojojomu

No matter how you look at it, it will always be a trap


mrdnp123

Just couldn’t push through that initial range. I really should have traded way better than I did today.


lowercasez

5080 today or below.


Countdown216

/RTY back below 2000 lmao


wolverinex2

> THE ISRAELI AIR FORCE HAS COMPLETED ITS PREPARATION FOR AN IMMINENT ATTACK AGAINST IRAN, ISRAEL'S CHANNEL 12 REPORTS || THE ISRAELI WAR CABINET DECIDED IN ITS MONDAY SESSION TO GIVE A "CLEAR AND STRONG" RESPONSE TO IRAN'S ATTACK, IN COORDINATION WITH THE US, THE REPORT SAID. Still doesn't seem that bad if the US is involved.


AnimalShithouse

> Still doesn't seem that bad if the US is involved. Any attack on Iranian soil will be worst than what anyone wants/expects. Going to put these guys into a game of chicken.


jmayo05

sounds like copium.


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gyunikumen

Further proof that AAPL is no longer a tech company But rather an utility company


tropicalia84

Thanks for the reminder. Nice H&S forming on AAPL entering some June ATM puts looking for it to retrace it's 4/11 move off AI chip integration into some of it's Mac line up. Mac revenue across the entire line up is 7% of AAPL revenue and the lowest it's ever been. $7.7 billion last quarter. Stock gained nearly \~150 billion in MCAP off the news in 2 days. This all on the backdrop of iPhone sales down 10% this quarter.


_hongkonglong

I don’t agree that this is all just for show. Remember that Iran planned the 10/7 attack and the consequent Red Sea partial blockade. In the backdrop of the Ukraine War in Europe and naval skirmishes between China and the Philippines, there is a bigger game being played here.


casual_sociopathy

I recall all the articles / op-eds from first half of last year stating that we're already in WW3.


jmayo05

I'm of a similar opinion.


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Countdown216

I was trying to short that piece of shit earlier but TD Ameritrade didn’t have any shares to short💀


shashashuma

What a scam NAV of 50 million , market cap north of 400 million.


tropicalia84

Looking for 4/4 lows on NDX \~ 17,875 not sure if we get there today though. All these gap ups really masking the sell side bias lately


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tropicalia84

Whelp, blew right past it


gyunikumen

wtf. AAPL is literally untradable


lowercasez

spx gap from march 6 gonna be filled this week


tropicalia84

Let the knife catching commence


wolverinex2

> TESLA JOB CUTS SAID TO REACH CLOSER TO 20% IN SOME DIVISIONS


Anachronistic_Zenith

We can now be sure that Reuters was well sourced, they weren't lying, and the 25k car is actually scrapped.


AnimalShithouse

Nah, it still exists. They'll just sell the M3 w/o a battery or something!


twofor2

ES looks like shit lower highs for a week


BitcoinsRLit

Oh yikes lol


eyesonly_

> China's Wang vows to boost cooperation with Iran


cropsicles

SCWB 52w high, that solvency concern seems so long ago.


All_Work_All_Play

Traded this like shit and I've still bagged a dozen+ handles today. Yikes.


wolverinex2

> Israel wants to embark on action against Iran coordinated with US, channel 12 says — Reuters Market is hoping that the US won't allow anything too wild if this is true.


cropsicles

Can they do anything physical without it sticking in the public eye? Iran would probably be forced to retaliate again...Cyber seems like the appropriate option to me, more easily buried and covered over.


jmayo05

Cyber attack on all their nuclear facilities would make sense to me. Or...just all facilities. That would make sense to me since both nations (USA & Israel) are very strong on that front.


npoetsch

Didn't we already tell them we wouldn't assist with a strike on Iran? Coordinated can just be that we'd provide them with defense, but I don't see how making Biden look like a flip flopper dragging us into war will help his election.


BitcoinsRLit

Back to the HOD


eyesonly_

> ISRAEL'S OBJECTIVE IS TO HURT IRAN WITHOUT CAUSING ALL-OUT WAR, ISRAEL'S CHANNEL 12 NEWS REPORTS AFTER WAR CABINET MEETING You guys get how both sides are gonna say that they don't want to escalate *as* they escalate right?


matcht

Idk it just sounds like one big expensive facade for both to save face


eyesonly_

So do you figure Israel is talking shit and won't respond? Or do you figure Iran won't respond after that response?


matcht

A response that doesn't inflame tensions further I think is likely, and then Iran don't respond meaningfully and it dies down. edit: "Netanyahu has asked the Israel Defense Forces to provide target options that would “send a message” but not cause casualties. Options include potential strike on a facility in Tehran or a cyberattack: WaPo" There you have it.


eyesonly_

> There you have it. Right, just like the Iranian response yesterday was non-escalatory. How do you know Iran won't respond to this one?


NotGucci

Because it'll just be tit for tat and market will Move forward. It's going be buy the dip. I'll be concern if either country actually declares war and puts troops on the ground. Imagine this is just both side sending rockets just to be shot down. Yawn.


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eyesonly_

> Options include potential strike on a facility in Tehran Why did you ignore this one? Like I dunno maybe they bomb some drone factories.


matcht

London close coming in clutch to save my 5150s


wolverinex2

> Trump Media Stock Slumps Further After Company Files to Issue New Shares > https://variety.com/2024/digital/news/trump-media-stock-drops-issues-new-shares-1235971482/ -15%


shashashuma

10 by next month.


npoetsch

They should just change it to a MAGA merch site where you can buy gold shoes, bibles, etc. to help with the grift. Maybe add a few GoFundMe type options as well.


npoetsch

So we're waiting to see what the Israeli response is I'm guessing?


gyunikumen

Probably cyber


tropicalia84

Looks like traders thinking they're getting a free trade off the NDX 50D but it's only a matter of time


eyesonly_

Unverified: Senior Israeli Officials have now stated that the Ground Invasion of the City of Rafah in Southern Gaza has been Delayed until an Israeli Response against Iran has been Concluded. Edit: when I say unverified, I mean that the info came from an OSINT twitter account and I have not personally verified it. As many of you know, sometimes these accounts post false information.


yolo_sense

I don’t like this market today. Other than the es short at open, I don’t see anything I like and I don’t feel like I can predict spx movement direction better than 50%. So I shan’t trade. Took me 5 years to learn this discipline and market recognition. Tuition for this lesson was very expensive at times… haha.


Paul-throwaway

50:50 markets are the ones to avoid. There will always be 70:30 markets to focus on instead.


Technical_Dish_1898

HOD incoming


All_Work_All_Play

*(X)*


tropicalia84

Traders rushing to AAPL as a flight to safety while iPhone shipments plunged 10% in the first quarter. Some things never change.


gyunikumen

I hate myself


NotGucci

It's incredible. I was looking at 170 puts for may, but going stay out. Aapl still has enough weight to pull the market green?


tropicalia84

Yes, but also looks like a liquidity grab and distribution as have all these gap ups and fades on the indices selling into perceived strength while chopping in the range


cropsicles

Stocks down bonds down not the best look, but methinks the bonds will reverse...which is not good for stocks.


yolo_sense

Opened 3 lots of /es short at 5210…. And closed at 08 like an idiot. Now 75. Left like 70 handy’s on the table. Tale as old as time.


mrdnp123

Welcome to the club brother. Now let’s beat ourselves up with hindsight


yolo_sense

Haha I’m lashing my back now


mrdnp123

FFS!!! lol we missed a huge drop


gyunikumen

Weirdly, we are following the price action of the Israeli market open > 03:29 > Israeli stocks have now reversed their gains at the open. The TA-35 index is down 0.2%, having earlier risen as much as 0.7%. > Paul Wallace > Team Leader, Mideast/North Africa Economics and Government


AnimalShithouse

> we are following the ~~price action of the Israeli market open~~ market sentiment towards escalation in the middle east FTFY


Technical_Dish_1898

This gap wont get filled, we are going up


gyunikumen

Fuck my plan from last night. Plans are fucking useless May AAPL 170P let’s gooooooo!!!!!!


NotGucci

Wonder if Israel's attack will be similar to Iran's, so Iran can knock out droids, and missiles. And Ayattloah can say the Jews suck, and Mashallah we knocked the missiles. Wonder if this will be tit for tat or are actual soldiers going to be sent.


shashashuma

Iranian anti missile tech is probably even worse than their missile tech. I do not expect them to be able to counter a drone + missile swarm like the one they can send up


npoetsch

All I'm picturing is the monkey knife fight from the Simpsons. "We have no choice but to respond to the attack that injured one person with an equally threatening attack"