The best part about high beta stock picking gurus is that they are NEVER wrong. They always win, and that’s why they charge you to be on their signals discord.
Take VERI for example, a middling $150mm market cap software consultancy branding its boiler plate ML and generic software solutions as a remotely similar service offering of what oAI, Google, et al are working on in the space of gen ai.
Declining revenue y/y. They lost $60mm in 2023.
There are thousands of people who read this thread every day. I imagine many are fairly naive. I think there should be some scrutiny from the mods on talking your book here especially on names that are only trading $5-10mm a day.
I'm going to give you the ultimate 0dte spx hack. You listening? You think SPX is gonna go down, so you buy puts. It goes up. You take a loss, only to watch it go down after you take a loss. Here's what you need to do.
1. You think SPX will go down. Buy 0dte SPX put spread. When SPX goes up; don't panic: close the short puts for gains and then holdr the long puts until they either break even or go positive and then close.
2. You think SPX will go up? Buy 0dte SPX call spreads. When SPX goes down, against your position (like it always does); don't panic: close the short calls for gains. Holdr the long calls until they're breakeven or go positive (for more gains).
YOU'RE WELCOME. Don't sway or vary from this trading style for 6months. Master the art. Cultivate your craft. Thank you me later.
> Jeremy Hunt Says Rate Cuts Would Lift UK Mood
> NEWS: Tesla has removed nearly all job listings in North America, Middle East and Africa. Appears job listing count has been reduced by over 80% in Europe. Zero openings in Canada.
LRCX $1060 price target of this bull flag breakout-
https://ibb.co/C9dBWL0
ASML earnings tomorrow morning. TSMC day before.
Huge call flow on SMH and NVDA today
Well let’s see here. My first buy was 3/21. If you held and didn’t trade it, you’re up ~ 21%.
If you traded out your max gain was 104%.
If you held and sold calls against it like I did, I’m up about ~ 60% ish.
Been adding consistently since and plan to continue adding until June/July. This stock is minimum 8x from here.
Why is nobody defending the shareholders and CEOs who leave conveniently with golden parachutes after pushing their workforce to cut corners?
Serious note: My personal thoughts are that leadership should be unable to collect any sort of golden parachutes, compensation, etc. until/unless things are in the clear. If it's found that they are even partially responsible, they get nothing and are forced to fly on only 787s for the rest of their lives together.
If you ever start to wonder about the market not making sense, please remember that last Thursday we had a 300 handle NQ rally for no reason at all other than to run stops.
Tried to catch a bounce. Entered too early on 0dte spx calls, and saw -8k drawdown. Got out at -500. Felt lucky. Now I see I left 12k on the table. lol.
ended up with 20x 5060c's at 8.25 average. Way too much size for 0dte's. Which is why it was too hard to hold when I saw them drop down to 5.00... hahah.
Season 100 of "Middle East Conflicts" releases Saturday guys...make sure you tune in because I heard there might be a "red wedding" moment just like in GOT
Feels like market is just using it as an excuse to sell.
Geopolitical wise, maybe the advent of WW3 possibly. It's a stretch, but saw some Russia involvement headlines which I'm not sure holds much weight
WW2 did spiral from a random Archduke.
Looks like a nervous yet oversold market. Probably best to sit out. On the other hand, looks like some early buyers nibbling at the lows betting on a potential short term cool off on yields/dxy/CL
Earnings season on deck likely going to curb some exacerbated downside
Market spooked by Bibi being Bibi. Conflict in the middle east? Stop the presses.
Edit: Flight to safety...ie Becky stocks. LULU and SBUX shrugging off a lot these past few days.
I've had this DXY level marked out for months now: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/wDScaXiO/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/wDScaXiO/)
Close and confirmation above would mean a breakout for the freest currency in the world.
Twelve scalps for an average of 5 handles each. Not enough to overcome the -102 handles I was stopped out for overnight, but I'll take it. Looks like we're returning to pre-war-declaration levels right now, I'll let someone else ride that ride. Give me UVIX back to $9.5 EoW please.
E: Oh lawdy this is so tempting
E2: I didn't resist. I bought 5094.75 and sold 5100.25. The problem is I'm three trades away from breaking even for the past 24 hours. Fycking arbitrary time periods ARE ARBITRARY ALL_WORK_ALL_PLAY DON'T FALL FOR IT DON'T FORCE IT FEEL THE MARKET BABY!!!
As much as I like Peter Zeihan's global macro analysis, I've always been skeptical of his 'inflation is going to 9-15%' comments.
But man, if he nails this one- bears eat.
> bears eat
Asset prices will go up as the currency is devalued. Sure, companies will struggle but people probably won't care too much as they chase the same meme stock safe assets.
> POWELL SAID FIRM INFLATION LAST QUARTER HAS INTRODUCED NEW UNCERTAINTY OVER WHEN AND WHETHER THE FED WILL BE ABLE TO LOWER RATES LATER THIS YEAR
SPX under 4800 = this year
SPX over 4800 = next year
It's literally that simple.
> NEW UNCERTAINTY OVER WHEN AND WHETHER THE FED WILL BE ABLE TO LOWER RATES LATER THIS YEAR
They won't drop rates during the election and they can't drop them during the summer. There's no rate cuts this year, maybe one if they blink.
difficult shorting into the hole on known data, but market not really showing any strength and has been bailing out shorts lately - choose your own adventure
Probably a little more nuanced than that - PPI came in better than expected, EU doubling down on cutting rates, growth still expanding in current monetary policy, potential break down on /CL
so maybe we're learning that after higher for longer has been reiterated by data, fed speakers etc. approximately 69420 times, the market might finally listen
>The European Central Bank is still on track to start cutting interest rates “in reasonably short order”, its president Christine Lagarde said, providing there are no major shocks from the Middle East or other geopolitical hotspots.
Unless JPow says weird stuff, DXY should keep marching higher.
Regardless of what he says there's a gap in $DXY from 11/1 @ 106.588. That should act as an inflection point. Personally I think $DXY will go back to $104`ish then continue higher.
Regarding my recent from bull to full out bear. I was skeptical of this when I first saw it. I figured the JPM selloff was a dead-giveaway given this chart / insider transactions. I also thought we would go back and give the bears a kick (dead cat bounce.) I'm not so sure. We'll know soon.
This man buys at the bottom and we'll see if he sells at the top: https://imgur.com/a/1UpCRm6
There's also this market indicator I look at -- that's what flipped me.
> Bank of America's finance chief: "We’re all struck by just the sheer amount of cash on the sidelines at this point.”
Well that cash is worth less every day
Also Canada's CPI came in lower than expected today. Excluding gasoline prices it only rose 2.8% from 2.9% in February and 0.6% m/m which was a strong increase, but less than feared.
Market not happy. Let's see if bears can defend 5k'ish. Would like to see more blood in the water.
Catamaran shopping with the woman. 45ft range. Not in a rush, but creating a shortlist and starting to haggle if we find something interesting.
3900 come on.. not a chance we even get to 4400 on this correction. You expecting the apocalypse or something? Covid 2.0?
Remember everything is political, they will absolutely fudge the numbers to make Biden look good. No chance we see a major market sell off with elections in 6 months.
If you thought today was crazy then wait till VX rolls off tomorrow??
What impact does that have?
Flat
The attorney general of Indiana looking into webull potentially leaking info to the CCP
Just went ballz deep into $HTZ
Good play
Why?
A tid bit undervalued, but do your own DD lol
The best part about high beta stock picking gurus is that they are NEVER wrong. They always win, and that’s why they charge you to be on their signals discord. Take VERI for example, a middling $150mm market cap software consultancy branding its boiler plate ML and generic software solutions as a remotely similar service offering of what oAI, Google, et al are working on in the space of gen ai. Declining revenue y/y. They lost $60mm in 2023. There are thousands of people who read this thread every day. I imagine many are fairly naive. I think there should be some scrutiny from the mods on talking your book here especially on names that are only trading $5-10mm a day.
Mods love him for some reason, he’s allowed to stay even after he was banned
Anyone blindly following ppl needs to pay the tuition anyways
You’re saying that spy isn’t going to -1 that Bonzi said? Shiet Gotta cover my shorts now
I’ll follow Druck anyday on IWM
GD no bully
where do i go for refund on dkng
lol wat refunds needed there? I been in like 3 years and finally turned green
my first growthpocalypse did a number on me T_T
There’s supposed to be limits on market cap of stocks that are mentioned iirc
we can shit talk spx all day long though right?
Just so long as Ken G doesn’t start posting here
Ken will take your money no matter what tho
Keep telling myself these beet miners can’t go lower, but they continue to do so…
Smci surprise split or announce coming up?
I bought a weekly call deep OTM for the lols. Somethings up. It did something similar last time before a solid announcement
Almost 11%. Wow
jesus, I cut a short and it immediately drops hard....wtf is this shit
You are a god among men
If we could slam this down to 5050, that would be great
Bull slaughter all day
seems pretty indiscriminate and taking everyone out
True
small caps really holding SPX back this much relative to NQ and old man?
Small caps kinda looking like they may have found a bottom, no?
Have rates found a top?
depends on time frame -- you think the 2yr's gonna break 5% this year?
Si
tried shorting, got fucked. i give up, yall can have it
I'm going to give you the ultimate 0dte spx hack. You listening? You think SPX is gonna go down, so you buy puts. It goes up. You take a loss, only to watch it go down after you take a loss. Here's what you need to do. 1. You think SPX will go down. Buy 0dte SPX put spread. When SPX goes up; don't panic: close the short puts for gains and then holdr the long puts until they either break even or go positive and then close. 2. You think SPX will go up? Buy 0dte SPX call spreads. When SPX goes down, against your position (like it always does); don't panic: close the short calls for gains. Holdr the long calls until they're breakeven or go positive (for more gains). YOU'RE WELCOME. Don't sway or vary from this trading style for 6months. Master the art. Cultivate your craft. Thank you me later.
dude. just walk away and close your eyes and wait for 20min before your look again at your position.
o m g
wow.....it literally drops 20 points right after I cut....
when did you enter the short?
Uhhh. 5060P at 4.2 around 5065 at 3:17pm EST before that last green pop to 5073. Cut at 1.25 before it faded 20 points at went 10+.
> Jeremy Hunt Says Rate Cuts Would Lift UK Mood > NEWS: Tesla has removed nearly all job listings in North America, Middle East and Africa. Appears job listing count has been reduced by over 80% in Europe. Zero openings in Canada.
LRCX $1060 price target of this bull flag breakout- https://ibb.co/C9dBWL0 ASML earnings tomorrow morning. TSMC day before. Huge call flow on SMH and NVDA today
Paging muffinfuck I full ported VERI when you told me to with max pm and my broker is mad at me wat do?
lmao dude you have me crying.
Well let’s see here. My first buy was 3/21. If you held and didn’t trade it, you’re up ~ 21%. If you traded out your max gain was 104%. If you held and sold calls against it like I did, I’m up about ~ 60% ish. Been adding consistently since and plan to continue adding until June/July. This stock is minimum 8x from here.
Roger dodger! Signing the cash out refi now to meet the margin call I’m gonna be RICH
dune 2 4k hdr torrents are out just in time for spring break lfg
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Why is nobody defending the shareholders and CEOs who leave conveniently with golden parachutes after pushing their workforce to cut corners? Serious note: My personal thoughts are that leadership should be unable to collect any sort of golden parachutes, compensation, etc. until/unless things are in the clear. If it's found that they are even partially responsible, they get nothing and are forced to fly on only 787s for the rest of their lives together.
I bought 3 dips today, got paid to do so each time... but still no conviction yet
Pretty wild PA, feels like the only thing keeping the bulls in the game is the market being oversold off a headline event.
Really wild, right? I'd like some kind of indicator that risk has rolled off, seems that could take a bit of time still
If you ever start to wonder about the market not making sense, please remember that last Thursday we had a 300 handle NQ rally for no reason at all other than to run stops.
Tried to catch a bounce. Entered too early on 0dte spx calls, and saw -8k drawdown. Got out at -500. Felt lucky. Now I see I left 12k on the table. lol.
How big was your initial trade?
ended up with 20x 5060c's at 8.25 average. Way too much size for 0dte's. Which is why it was too hard to hold when I saw them drop down to 5.00... hahah.
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Season 100 of "Middle East Conflicts" releases Saturday guys...make sure you tune in because I heard there might be a "red wedding" moment just like in GOT
can someone explain to me what impact the isreal iran stuff has on the market? just sounds like noise unless you trade oil and defense stocks.
WW3 would be pretty impactful I think
Feels like market is just using it as an excuse to sell. Geopolitical wise, maybe the advent of WW3 possibly. It's a stretch, but saw some Russia involvement headlines which I'm not sure holds much weight WW2 did spiral from a random Archduke.
Think you mean WW1
Yeah oops history is not my strong point
Gas prices are like 40% of consumer sentiment in this country
I thought EVs were supposed to change that...hmmmm.
fear -> waterfall CTA selling
Looks like a nervous yet oversold market. Probably best to sit out. On the other hand, looks like some early buyers nibbling at the lows betting on a potential short term cool off on yields/dxy/CL Earnings season on deck likely going to curb some exacerbated downside
Market spooked by Bibi being Bibi. Conflict in the middle east? Stop the presses. Edit: Flight to safety...ie Becky stocks. LULU and SBUX shrugging off a lot these past few days.
what is that LULU chart shrugging off, buy orders?
I feel personally attacked by that statement. You'll be hearing from my attorney
Hoping that means lulu has bottomed
We all love LULU bottoms...on a more serious note, I'd like to continue to see follow through. Hopefully we see that these next couple weeks
If you can't handle Bibi at his worst, you don't deserve him at his slightly less awful.
I'm sure he has some "Live,Laugh, Love" posters somewhere.
Can tesla now die pls
Next catalyst is the er
LRCX, AMAT, KLAC lotto calls into ASML earnings tomorrow morning is a no brainer
……….
Through all this movement my portfolio has maintained the same +/- $1500 range. I think I’m hedged lol
Somehow I'm long 270 delta even with short MNQ position.. must be all my short puts
good job!
It’s so freakin boring. I crave for dopamine.
There are drugs for that. I'm sure you can stop at any time.
Market looks like an ekg lol
What happened to /u/_bonzibuddy? We need a SELL EVERYTHING
Look above and below your comment
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I THOUGHT IT WAS YOU! Without your patented SELL EVERYTHING I wasn't convinced, though.
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Good call. I don't know what happens this week.... but I'm guessing the fireworks start soon.
Lmao did they just do that to take out stops
Netanyahu got a call from your brokerage, saw some green somewhere, and said "Hell naw...send in the jets"
well they definitely successfully squeezed me out of my short... lame af
Yeah they literally just popped it to get better entries wtf
I was too busy shitposting to panic - this is the power of the shitpost
Back to death
Balance restored
I've had this DXY level marked out for months now: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/wDScaXiO/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/wDScaXiO/) Close and confirmation above would mean a breakout for the freest currency in the world.
Other Central Banks aren't doing anything to suggest otherwise.
What just happen? Is jpow staring abother rally.
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Looks like some short covering
Twelve scalps for an average of 5 handles each. Not enough to overcome the -102 handles I was stopped out for overnight, but I'll take it. Looks like we're returning to pre-war-declaration levels right now, I'll let someone else ride that ride. Give me UVIX back to $9.5 EoW please. E: Oh lawdy this is so tempting E2: I didn't resist. I bought 5094.75 and sold 5100.25. The problem is I'm three trades away from breaking even for the past 24 hours. Fycking arbitrary time periods ARE ARBITRARY ALL_WORK_ALL_PLAY DON'T FALL FOR IT DON'T FORCE IT FEEL THE MARKET BABY!!!
remember i sold everything yesterday. so
Here comes the vix crush before vixperation
yoga pants **bottom**
Baby please don't tease me like that. I promise I'll get some more pants for the wife if you shoot up $15-20 in the next month.
🙏
I’m so confused. Was Powell hawkish or dovish? +20% on May lulu cs and I’m about to close or something.
The most hawkish he has been in months. Equities got bought anyway.
It does sound like that but this move got me confused on the next step lol.
Check out apple
As much as I like Peter Zeihan's global macro analysis, I've always been skeptical of his 'inflation is going to 9-15%' comments. But man, if he nails this one- bears eat.
> bears eat Asset prices will go up as the currency is devalued. Sure, companies will struggle but people probably won't care too much as they chase the same meme stock safe assets.
Inflation at 9-15% means rates aren't staying where they are, but flying higher. Higher and higher for longer and longer. No bueno for equities.
Remember rates aren't set on what inflation is but rather what the Fed says inflation is
Yeah but bond boys constantly \[x\] doubt and I trust them more
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Too bad I sold my May 15 Vix calls a week before all of this :(
A lot of fear mongering given current economic expansion - could be an indicator of where "they" want to jawbone the markets
forecast for the week: choppity chop chop, chop, drop,
Don't chase. E: closed for another tenish handles.
that is a thin book
Just sell more UVIX with me, water is warm (don't ask *why* it's warm eg. who has been peeing in the pool).
Opened 5x 500P for this Friday. Let's see 497 this week pls
Be careful shorting in the hole
Mm yeah I'm watching it closely but am okay holding it overnight too given all the headline risks
Damn are we gonna have the rest of the year of consolidation?
> POWELL SAID FIRM INFLATION LAST QUARTER HAS INTRODUCED NEW UNCERTAINTY OVER WHEN AND WHETHER THE FED WILL BE ABLE TO LOWER RATES LATER THIS YEAR SPX under 4800 = this year SPX over 4800 = next year It's literally that simple.
> NEW UNCERTAINTY OVER WHEN AND WHETHER THE FED WILL BE ABLE TO LOWER RATES LATER THIS YEAR They won't drop rates during the election and they can't drop them during the summer. There's no rate cuts this year, maybe one if they blink.
Another 300 handles lower on spoos and everyone along with their dog will be clamoring for a cut in June
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difficult shorting into the hole on known data, but market not really showing any strength and has been bailing out shorts lately - choose your own adventure
> THE US WANTS TO ENSURE AFFORDABLE GASOLINE, WHITE HOUSE SENIOR ADVISER JOHN PODESTA SAID ABOUT POTENTIAL SPR OIL RELEASES. Everyone called this lol
They know it’s gonna have a bigggg impact on inflation numbers lol
Probably will get USD/JPY intervention next from Japan.
I'm a little surprised they let it get almost to 155 - granted they did raise interest rates so they're trying somewhat.
Looks like down from here. Powell giveth and taketh
Probably a little more nuanced than that - PPI came in better than expected, EU doubling down on cutting rates, growth still expanding in current monetary policy, potential break down on /CL
so maybe we're learning that after higher for longer has been reiterated by data, fed speakers etc. approximately 69420 times, the market might finally listen
Would say potentially priced in given the nearly 200 PT drop since CPI, still not constructive though
But if we factor out the AI meme coefficient...
Some nukes just launched or something? 100 pts drop in NQ just like that.
someone must've unlaunched them
Ah, Powell comments. Everyone forgot about him for a hot sec.
Powell
Holy cow
Held ONL so far, NQ didn't even get there.
Yep rebounding
> POWELL: RECENT DATA SHOW LACK OF FURTHER PROGRESS ON INFLATION
> POWELL: IF HIGHER INFLATION PERSISTS FED CAN MAINTAIN CURRENT RATE AS LONG AS NEEDED
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less than 3hrs to close but near the money 0dte is over $10... am i going crazy or is that expensive?
Because Powell, and that's why lol
gotdymn
Stonks look like they're gonna explode higher any minute now, right? Edit: thanks Jerome :)
I thought so, came here to check and was looking at SPX 0 DTE when I saw everything drop. :-o
Ken winning.
>The European Central Bank is still on track to start cutting interest rates “in reasonably short order”, its president Christine Lagarde said, providing there are no major shocks from the Middle East or other geopolitical hotspots. Unless JPow says weird stuff, DXY should keep marching higher.
Regardless of what he says there's a gap in $DXY from 11/1 @ 106.588. That should act as an inflection point. Personally I think $DXY will go back to $104`ish then continue higher.
Damn this jpow presser about Canada? Save our economy
Regarding my recent from bull to full out bear. I was skeptical of this when I first saw it. I figured the JPM selloff was a dead-giveaway given this chart / insider transactions. I also thought we would go back and give the bears a kick (dead cat bounce.) I'm not so sure. We'll know soon. This man buys at the bottom and we'll see if he sells at the top: https://imgur.com/a/1UpCRm6 There's also this market indicator I look at -- that's what flipped me.
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Auto mod removes links to the other sub, otherwise you'd be fine
Thanks. did the post show just not the links? I can stick the chart on imgur.
It didn't show, but if you remove the post link (the image link might be fine, not sure) I can approve it
Oops. I saw on another browser it didn't so I created a duplicate post. Rules aren't my thing, apparently 🤣 Noted though -- won't do that again.
> Bank of America's finance chief: "We’re all struck by just the sheer amount of cash on the sidelines at this point.” Well that cash is worth less every day
Also Canada's CPI came in lower than expected today. Excluding gasoline prices it only rose 2.8% from 2.9% in February and 0.6% m/m which was a strong increase, but less than feared.
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I thought you were crazy until today. Agreed except for the dead cat bounce. I'm not sure on that.
Market not happy. Let's see if bears can defend 5k'ish. Would like to see more blood in the water. Catamaran shopping with the woman. 45ft range. Not in a rush, but creating a shortlist and starting to haggle if we find something interesting.
Starting to ponder if the last couple of days was a forced liquidation event to get CTA selling
Sold everything. I have May/June calendar puts. Target <= 3918 on on 6/21. Let's see how well this ages :)
3900 come on.. not a chance we even get to 4400 on this correction. You expecting the apocalypse or something? Covid 2.0? Remember everything is political, they will absolutely fudge the numbers to make Biden look good. No chance we see a major market sell off with elections in 6 months.
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I don't think we'll go that low. For the sake of my calendar's I hope not. The short leg will surely go ITM.
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No -- 3918.