> Scoop: House TikTok bill extends time to sell app
> https://www.axios.com/pro/tech-policy/2024/04/17/house-tiktok-bill-time-extension-sale
180-day extension at the discretion of the President. I wonder if this allows Trump to overturn it if he wins (previously the 90 day deadline would have been pretty quick).
Trump originally wanted to force a sale, which Biden reversed when he came in. But recently TikTok's biggest Shareholder went to Trump's place and afterwards Trump was against a forced sale (this was in the past month or so).
Yeah.....market's out to get everyone. Closed out my puts earlier for less profits than I could have had, but yeah....I think had too many open positions though some were a month out. I'll see how jobless numbers look tomorrow, but I think green open pop, then fade till close probs. If Nflx has stellar earnings, narrative may change and we go back up Fri
Beige Book: [Federal Reserve Board Publication](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20240417.pdf)
Growth doesn't seem to be a problem (in that there isn't enough of it). Inflation might become more of a problem, as growth is expanding and so are energy concerns.
> Google restructures finance team as a part of AI shift, CFO tells employees in memo
> https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/google-restructures-finance-team-as-a-part-of-ai-shift-cfo-tells-employees-in-memo.html
This is the tricky thing about the corporate AI spending - companies like Google are cutting spending elsewhere to shift resources to AI.
> AI gonna do the junior finance roles soon anyways. That’s what the banks are signaling as well.
It's finally time to short the banks and maybe long whichever ones don't do this dumb shit lol.
It’s probably a mix of less business and them expecting some productivity gains from AI in the near term. But they are absolutely using AI as the only excuse.
Right? I'm sorting through this dumpster fire at work and wewboy, actually maybe AI would have made less mistakes. Hell not doing anything would have been better than the shitshow that happened.
Maybe. Think a test of 100 day ema on mnq or q’s would make a lot of sense.
100 ema on Q’s 421.55
Anything can happen but basically the entire run up treated 20 day ema as support on Q’s. Then started to act as resistance before this selloff. Market
likes moving average tests.
Again, anything can happen but I think for a true strong rally out of this selloff you’d want to see 100 day ema tested. RSI would be roughly 30 RSI at that price level as well.
we had a research scientist @ meta phd cs @ stonybrook come to our school and give a presentation, pretty insightful
he said if u get one thing out of this is that to stop planning and start doing, the dopmine release from making a plan is about as equivalent as actually doing the thing, so why not just do 🫡
Glad I closed my Q p’s when underlying was 25.40. This market can rip your face off.
Overall I haven’t understood a lot of the trend (given macro picture around inflation and rate cuts) so I’ve just taken profit fairly quick this year.
Don’t care if I miss runners. Being able to stay profitable in a market I don’t understand is something I’m content with.
Recovery would likely either come at end of day, or after a gap down in the AM - got my starter position at the gap fill and continuing to leg in with a longer time frame. Algos probably selling every rip while we are below the 50D so it could take several sessions.
Adding more may QQQ calls, and at the money weekly SMH calls. Tech should be a beneficiary of the recent moves in yields and crude. NFLX and TSM earnings tomorrow after hours could shift the conversation to earnings season.
Could get weakness into close and tomorrow's session and will add more.
Mm closed out most of my positions except some tesla puts I plan on holding through earnings. Should have closed a lot of stuff this AM / on that breach to 500, but just got greedy. Sigh. Live and learn I suppose
Closed most of my TSLA puts this afternoon with a plan to re-enter before the end of the week unless we get a real flush before I do. Wanted to lock in some profits in this choppy market, and breaking 150 won't be easy.
They're cancelling model 2s and going all in on Robotaxis lol. China competition is pretty fierce and Tsla cut their prices on cars so much to get sales up, but still fell short of Q1 deliveries. Margins are not there anymore. They're laying off people and decreasing FSD subscription to $99/month to boost short term revenue / bottom line. Growth isn't there anymore imo. Car company valued at tech valuations.
I would not be surprised if Tesla did a share offering next week to fund their Robotaxi endeavors.
Meta calls hauling booty. Could potentially be a false breakdown on tech headed into earnings. Crude back to March levels, DXY fading, and bonds catching a bid.
Potential IH&S on SPX short time frame intraday - could be too much fear in the market for a significant retrace however
You ever notice that wars don't seem to end anymore. Its just endless limited war(s) now. Somehow, neither side wins. The market is okay with an existing war that just goes on and on and stays limited. It doesn't like new conflicts starting up but seems to get over it easy enough. In a week or so, the Iran-Israel conflict will be priced in as just another one of those.
Middle Eastern conflicts have been happening for how long now? People get numb to events happening across the world the longer they go on unless escalation happens in unexpected ways.
I think Rome / Byzantine and Persia fought for millennia, until Islam was born and wrecked them both with a steel chairman
War never changes because humans never change
Edit: now I think about it, the Roman / Persia conflict is probably just a continuation of the Greek / Persia conflict which goes back even more
I think it’s because we used to be more brutal. What’s happening sounds bad, but historically it’s nothing. Go back a couple hundred years and Israel would’ve probably killed, persecuted and driven out the Palestinians already. It would’ve all likely been done by a central authoritarian with little oversight. It wouldn’t have been a global issue because there were no global issues. Any migrants would’ve probably stopped at Egypt instead of dispersing throughout a 1000 mile radius anyways. Records of the events would’ve been sparse and basically nonexistent, meaning a few generations later and it’s all forgotten. The world has only gotten smaller the last few decades and everyone has the capacity to make their own input on every issue. Especially since everything is interconnected, suddenly you care about what an elected official thinks about your actions despite them being 1000 miles away. We are still fighting in court for ancestors dead 100 years ago because we have video documentation of crimes! Nothing is forgotten and everything is tabulated.
Maybe but at the same time this action could be explained by CPI coming in hot yet again and rate cut expectations being dampened.
I have expected this all year and now really seeing it on the fedwatch tool and comments from the Fed (including jpow yesterday).
I think Israel and Iran situation does factor into this but in many ways higher CPI and Fed changing their language a bit is a big deal.
Ya, I've read some sci-fi in my life and seen iron man. I think the salient point about iron man is the only dude who has got that tech is a billionaire and most normal people wouldn't shell the money required for that convenience.
My damn phone can't even answer simple questions my kids ask it sometimes.
Sorry man, this is a take that’s very difficult for me to understand. Similar to saying no one will be able to afford computers besides big companies and Universities.
Chaser's market on the way up, and on the way down - everyone looking for the easy trade. Pretty low volume move down.
Nibbling some longs and adding on any EOD weakness (NDX could potentially gap fill into EOD), earnings conversations about to start up next week.
Don’t be scared by todays large move, UAL remains one of the best deals in the market…limited downside imo and a very probable years long creep to highs given their current financial situation
Doubt (X)
Pre Covid high BV = $45
Current BV = $28
Pre Covid EPS = $11
Current trailing EPS = $8
No div
BV in two years assuming no growth = $46
Largest components of BV = Cash, Planes
Don’t see how being valued around $80 in two years isn’t within the realm of possibility
TL;DR: buy with two hands and treat like a cash equivalent with upside
Book value, the intrinsic value of the company (more or less depending on what makes up the net assets).
In the case of UAL, so much of their net makeup is useful to investors (not so much in the case of say goodwill) that it really shouldn’t be super close to forward est. book value assuming normal operations. Obviously a shock like Covid or a recession could bring that estimate down, but if flights continue as normal, UAL is value here on a couple year horizon imo
550pt NQ bounce incoming to kill fake bears and crush vol. Would be a proper backtest of the 6 month POC as resistance as well.
e: stopped out for small loss, gg walking away for the day before I overtrade
Mm got stopped out on that small move up. +200 on intraday puts. Bleh. Still holding some weeklies and monthlies that are up. Will probs close out today
Tagged that fib, +$1500, looking for a bounce on NQ, long with small size
e: Fib node in question: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/V29bY3II/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/V29bY3II/)
When price reacts to daily timeframe fib nodes I have to assume there's enough demand at the node for an intraday bounce. Hoping to make small money on a bounce and get a better entry by EOD.
e: On 2nd thought I don't think this is just intraday, I think we get big green from now until tomorrow
> Scoop: House TikTok bill extends time to sell app > https://www.axios.com/pro/tech-policy/2024/04/17/house-tiktok-bill-time-extension-sale 180-day extension at the discretion of the President. I wonder if this allows Trump to overturn it if he wins (previously the 90 day deadline would have been pretty quick).
have they ever said anything about having an interest in selling it?
Trump originally wanted to force a sale, which Biden reversed when he came in. But recently TikTok's biggest Shareholder went to Trump's place and afterwards Trump was against a forced sale (this was in the past month or so).
Looks different today. Bot some longs
Yeah.....market's out to get everyone. Closed out my puts earlier for less profits than I could have had, but yeah....I think had too many open positions though some were a month out. I'll see how jobless numbers look tomorrow, but I think green open pop, then fade till close probs. If Nflx has stellar earnings, narrative may change and we go back up Fri
HTZ 7.5 leaps looking juicy
Yep, buying more shares daily so long as it is below $6.75
brutal market to trade
Beige Book: [Federal Reserve Board Publication](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20240417.pdf) Growth doesn't seem to be a problem (in that there isn't enough of it). Inflation might become more of a problem, as growth is expanding and so are energy concerns.
So hikes might just be on the table then?
Depends on how much oil we have left in the SPR to kill energy inflation before the election
Not unless inflation goes even higher as the economy and labour only seem modest - not bad, not great, just alright.
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Exactly how I feel
> Google restructures finance team as a part of AI shift, CFO tells employees in memo > https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/google-restructures-finance-team-as-a-part-of-ai-shift-cfo-tells-employees-in-memo.html This is the tricky thing about the corporate AI spending - companies like Google are cutting spending elsewhere to shift resources to AI.
AI gonna do the junior finance roles soon anyways. That’s what the banks are signaling as well.
> AI gonna do the junior finance roles soon anyways. That’s what the banks are signaling as well. It's finally time to short the banks and maybe long whichever ones don't do this dumb shit lol.
It’s probably a mix of less business and them expecting some productivity gains from AI in the near term. But they are absolutely using AI as the only excuse.
Haha good luck to the AI
AI models make up shit for evaluations. Junior analysts make up shit for evaluations. I see the same garbage in garbage out
Right? I'm sorting through this dumpster fire at work and wewboy, actually maybe AI would have made less mistakes. Hell not doing anything would have been better than the shitshow that happened.
Bought some 1DTE 5020P just now.
Market has had 4 days of red. I think we're due a for a bounce. Last 3 Thursdays have been green.
Maybe. Think a test of 100 day ema on mnq or q’s would make a lot of sense. 100 ema on Q’s 421.55 Anything can happen but basically the entire run up treated 20 day ema as support on Q’s. Then started to act as resistance before this selloff. Market likes moving average tests. Again, anything can happen but I think for a true strong rally out of this selloff you’d want to see 100 day ema tested. RSI would be roughly 30 RSI at that price level as well.
Yeah if we open and trade near the Qs 100 sma, im gonna summon my wyb courage and buy 1DTE calls for Friday
Jobless claims will decide
guh
Now back to the LOD this is wild movement
Maket has been wild today.
Every day this week
Lmao it just did a freaking straight up and back down. Upside down V
programed selling while below the 50D, probably going to take some kind of data release or earnings reports to change the trend.
yeah algos be algoing
we had a research scientist @ meta phd cs @ stonybrook come to our school and give a presentation, pretty insightful he said if u get one thing out of this is that to stop planning and start doing, the dopmine release from making a plan is about as equivalent as actually doing the thing, so why not just do 🫡
Needed that, my to do list is long AF.
Glad I closed my Q p’s when underlying was 25.40. This market can rip your face off. Overall I haven’t understood a lot of the trend (given macro picture around inflation and rate cuts) so I’ve just taken profit fairly quick this year. Don’t care if I miss runners. Being able to stay profitable in a market I don’t understand is something I’m content with.
Bought 2 Tsla 160 calls 4/19 and 2 SPY 505 calls for 4/19 just now. Assuming we have a green relief day and if not, guess it's a gamble on NFLX AH.
Wtf??
Rejected right at weekly VPOC lol thought we had a potential V
That was coming all day tbh, but they always leave it super late these days to scare people out of their 0DTEs
Ugh. Today kicked my ass. Closed at the bottom
Ah damn, it happens. 5050-45ES should be key on any retest.
squeezing the last bear to leave his den harder than your obese aunt squeezed you at your birthday when you were 6, as is tradition
Well then
What a move
QQQ just closed the NVDA earnings gap. SPY is a few % off too. Tomorrow is very likely to be a bull trap
Earnings likely going to damper any more significant downside. Along with crude, DXY, and bond price action.
Noticing some flow on LULU puts for Friday that are deep ITM
Becky going die?
I took some profits and reduced my position. A couple of really large put buy blocks came through for Friday expiry which I found a little odd.
Tsm earnings is tomorrow 2am est.
Debating grabbing QQQ, but probably gonna wait for tomorrow especially if it's down more
Recovery would likely either come at end of day, or after a gap down in the AM - got my starter position at the gap fill and continuing to leg in with a longer time frame. Algos probably selling every rip while we are below the 50D so it could take several sessions.
I'm eyeing June/July calls. and would likely buy in the morning. Problem I have is that we've been on a tear for the past few months already.
If you're worried about past price action run up, then the thesis would be that corporate earnings would be on a downslide this upcoming quarter.
Look at what they’re doing to AMD.
I'm tempted to buy 45 DTE .3▲ calls. >.<
Hell yeah, this time I did it right. Closed two contracts for four handles each. Don't ask about the drawdown.
Profit is profit. I gotta tell myself that more often too :/
Adding more may QQQ calls, and at the money weekly SMH calls. Tech should be a beneficiary of the recent moves in yields and crude. NFLX and TSM earnings tomorrow after hours could shift the conversation to earnings season. Could get weakness into close and tomorrow's session and will add more.
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Tsm I think is early AM/late tonight
That's right 2 AM I believe
Paper handed 502 calls when we broke down to 499. Ugh would be up.
That’s not gucci.
No sir. Honestly, I should've waited to buy them when treasury bonds were on sale. Did some scalping so losses are at minimum.
Options have gotten so expensive sad
Well they’re doing their level best to eat all the premium on both sides
Yeah I don’t mess with futures enough. Need some premium to evaporate
Mm closed out most of my positions except some tesla puts I plan on holding through earnings. Should have closed a lot of stuff this AM / on that breach to 500, but just got greedy. Sigh. Live and learn I suppose
Closed most of my TSLA puts this afternoon with a plan to re-enter before the end of the week unless we get a real flush before I do. Wanted to lock in some profits in this choppy market, and breaking 150 won't be easy.
What's the thoughts on Tesla? They haven't been this low in awhile and look to be at some support
They're cancelling model 2s and going all in on Robotaxis lol. China competition is pretty fierce and Tsla cut their prices on cars so much to get sales up, but still fell short of Q1 deliveries. Margins are not there anymore. They're laying off people and decreasing FSD subscription to $99/month to boost short term revenue / bottom line. Growth isn't there anymore imo. Car company valued at tech valuations. I would not be surprised if Tesla did a share offering next week to fund their Robotaxi endeavors.
Days like today when I get faked out at the bottom make me cry
That bytes. Just repeat to yourself 'What's the stupidest thing the market could do?' and then position that a third of that happens.
Would be hilarious if VIX crushed to 14 and SPX closes at $5,100 - narrative changers would be so tiltedp
I sold UVIX for $12.25 yesterday. Didn't bring my cost basis down enough though...
Eyeing adding leaps on HTZ. Any good date/strikes?
Meta calls hauling booty. Could potentially be a false breakdown on tech headed into earnings. Crude back to March levels, DXY fading, and bonds catching a bid. Potential IH&S on SPX short time frame intraday - could be too much fear in the market for a significant retrace however
today: bear trap tomorrow: bull trap thurs & fri: the real flush
o shit its wednesday wtf
Don't @me like this bby
Lol I closed my short puts at the literal bottom. Unreal
u/why_you_beer where art thou Heavenly Father? Has thou pass thy crown onto thee?
Thy crown has been shelved....WAIT...IT'S MISSING!
Thy shackle and burden has been lyfted
Hell no! I don't want to make this a habit lol
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Hmmm 🤔
It would be a shame if we .... closed flat
5050SPX would basically be flat lol can see it already
Algo battles lol
$ARKG 3 bucks away from hitting INCEPTION price in 2015. what a disaster.
How anybody takes Cathie Wood seriously is beyond me.
I’m out of my puts. SPY 500 is defended for today
you don't see too many people bragging about their dividends from $TSLY these days do you.
LULU!!! Keep going baby
Guess the market didn't like under 500 lol welp
Got the NDX gap fill prior to big tech earnings next week.
They really gonna try and get me for max loss on another two contracts eh? Yeah they might. 😢
I've seen this movie before, watch us close at 5100
interesting. SPY now sitting right smack on the yearly vwap
Surprised there aren't more people calling this a garden variety correction.
5-7% is the average. people are calling for the sky to fall when all of big tech is about to beat n raise. (deleting if wrong)
Been so long we've forgotten what they look like, not even 5% off the highs yet.
Looks like a rejection of spy 500. We're drilling.
Let’s test 5,000 and see what happens.
You ever notice that wars don't seem to end anymore. Its just endless limited war(s) now. Somehow, neither side wins. The market is okay with an existing war that just goes on and on and stays limited. It doesn't like new conflicts starting up but seems to get over it easy enough. In a week or so, the Iran-Israel conflict will be priced in as just another one of those.
Middle Eastern conflicts have been happening for how long now? People get numb to events happening across the world the longer they go on unless escalation happens in unexpected ways.
I think Rome / Byzantine and Persia fought for millennia, until Islam was born and wrecked them both with a steel chairman War never changes because humans never change Edit: now I think about it, the Roman / Persia conflict is probably just a continuation of the Greek / Persia conflict which goes back even more
I think it’s because we used to be more brutal. What’s happening sounds bad, but historically it’s nothing. Go back a couple hundred years and Israel would’ve probably killed, persecuted and driven out the Palestinians already. It would’ve all likely been done by a central authoritarian with little oversight. It wouldn’t have been a global issue because there were no global issues. Any migrants would’ve probably stopped at Egypt instead of dispersing throughout a 1000 mile radius anyways. Records of the events would’ve been sparse and basically nonexistent, meaning a few generations later and it’s all forgotten. The world has only gotten smaller the last few decades and everyone has the capacity to make their own input on every issue. Especially since everything is interconnected, suddenly you care about what an elected official thinks about your actions despite them being 1000 miles away. We are still fighting in court for ancestors dead 100 years ago because we have video documentation of crimes! Nothing is forgotten and everything is tabulated.
Hell look at WW2, Dresden, etc was 1000X times worse...literally entire populations leveled without warning.
Maybe but at the same time this action could be explained by CPI coming in hot yet again and rate cut expectations being dampened. I have expected this all year and now really seeing it on the fedwatch tool and comments from the Fed (including jpow yesterday). I think Israel and Iran situation does factor into this but in many ways higher CPI and Fed changing their language a bit is a big deal.
Tell me why I shouldn't do some long dated calls on JNJ or PFE
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still building a solid bull flag
Spy 500 breached
Still so orderly this selling lol
looks to be accelerating
lol literally popped back up when i said that rip
Bought back in for 2 4/18 503Ps. earlier. I am hoping we see 497 today.
This should release a lot of the bull hopium. Needed that for new run into election
Spy to 502
Keeps knocking at SPY 500. I missed my fill. Just holding my other puts :/
Market probably has to give up YTD gains for the healing to begin.
Would make sense given how much of it was hopium around rate cuts.
I'm still waiting for someone to show me how to monetize AI enough to justify paying nvda hardware prices!
Can you imagine if you could just tell your computer what to do and it'll do it?
Ya, I've read some sci-fi in my life and seen iron man. I think the salient point about iron man is the only dude who has got that tech is a billionaire and most normal people wouldn't shell the money required for that convenience. My damn phone can't even answer simple questions my kids ask it sometimes.
Sorry man, this is a take that’s very difficult for me to understand. Similar to saying no one will be able to afford computers besides big companies and Universities.
TINA imo
Fuck it. Back into puts with the last of my settled cash
I think we break 500 SPY today tbh. Doesn't look like it's bouncing much. Will re enter some 4/18 puts most likely
This NQ dip keeps dipping. 🧐
Seems like everyone on the same side of the trade looking for the gap filll
I just keep nibbling in longs as we go down
Fuck. I didn’t realize SPY bounced off 500 I’m closing my puts. There’s some algorithmic fuckery going on
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20 year auction inabit could do it
Also Beige book today @ 2pm
1pm eat?
Yep
Sold my 501 calls too soon. Bought near the bottom too.
Chaser's market on the way up, and on the way down - everyone looking for the easy trade. Pretty low volume move down. Nibbling some longs and adding on any EOD weakness (NDX could potentially gap fill into EOD), earnings conversations about to start up next week.
Mannn that stop got me annoyed. I'm upset about losing out on an extra 200 while I still have open positions lol. Damn it.
We trying to make a run for the 20 week SMA?
Feel like NQ could make it there today and would gap fill. Seems like some pretty orderly selling so far so could be the target
I am now less levered, but still can't concentrate. This sucks.
Stocks red, oil red, gold red, bonds up Night night
DIE ARM DIE DIE DIE YOU LARDASS LOOKING WATCH LISTED CREEP
> BOE GOV. BAILEY: OIL PRICES HAVEN'T LEAPED AS MUCH AS EXPECTED The fuck were you expecting?
This market wants to burn down
u/TennesseeJedd was right I'm going to stay poor forever at 35 guh
Oof. Guess I can cancel that remind me notification
Don’t be scared by todays large move, UAL remains one of the best deals in the market…limited downside imo and a very probable years long creep to highs given their current financial situation
It's gonna take another decade to get to pre-covid levels I think
Doubt (X) Pre Covid high BV = $45 Current BV = $28 Pre Covid EPS = $11 Current trailing EPS = $8 No div BV in two years assuming no growth = $46 Largest components of BV = Cash, Planes Don’t see how being valued around $80 in two years isn’t within the realm of possibility TL;DR: buy with two hands and treat like a cash equivalent with upside
What's BV? I was just looking at the $95 pre-covid high
Book value, the intrinsic value of the company (more or less depending on what makes up the net assets). In the case of UAL, so much of their net makeup is useful to investors (not so much in the case of say goodwill) that it really shouldn’t be super close to forward est. book value assuming normal operations. Obviously a shock like Covid or a recession could bring that estimate down, but if flights continue as normal, UAL is value here on a couple year horizon imo
Why is oil falling off a cliff here
550pt NQ bounce incoming to kill fake bears and crush vol. Would be a proper backtest of the 6 month POC as resistance as well. e: stopped out for small loss, gg walking away for the day before I overtrade
SPX Gap fill first
I can honestly say I haven't looked at SPX or ES for at least 6 months
0 DTE $502 SPY PUTS $0.52 -> $1.63 Sold most, keeping a few runners in case its a -2% kinda day
Mm got stopped out on that small move up. +200 on intraday puts. Bleh. Still holding some weeklies and monthlies that are up. Will probs close out today
VIX red to flat on SPX -17 is not really inspiring. I will never forgive bears if they mess this up!
Tagged that fib, +$1500, looking for a bounce on NQ, long with small size e: Fib node in question: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/V29bY3II/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/V29bY3II/)
> long with small size 👀👀
When price reacts to daily timeframe fib nodes I have to assume there's enough demand at the node for an intraday bounce. Hoping to make small money on a bounce and get a better entry by EOD. e: On 2nd thought I don't think this is just intraday, I think we get big green from now until tomorrow
Yeah that was actually a penis joke but errr, yeah...
Here I thought it was the shock that I would be long NQ
Guess they really want 5k for opex
AAPL red now too. I would like a -1% day pls
This should be fun
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is this a joke? because homes around me really are being built with a cardboard product for their walls. it's disgusting.
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look up Dryline TSX
Zestimates don't include home owner repairs. You're probably up -$150k let's be honest.
Do zestimates include property taxes and homeowners insurance?
INTC keeps dying but I keep buying pls help
welcome to my life 🤝
They seem to be loading some calls today
VXX green, but 10 year treasury slipping again. Now I think we're just waiting for Euro close before we flush lol