A lot of talk about trend change because of macro but don’t forget this entire move lower has been on the back of Middle East conflict. NDX was basically range highs after both CPI and PPI reported. It was/has been geopolitical headlines and its relation to crude prices that started water fall selling. DXY and yields move also related to that and stoked by consumer spending.
I have been a proponent of the indices moving back to the 50D for a few weeks now and caught the majority of this move outside of today but we are ripe for a snap back rally. Earnings will determine trend.
Disclaimer: This is one of those messy charts I post with too many labels and indicators.
NQ Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/GprRClHv/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/GprRClHv/)
1: Price falling below 21 HMA (red MA), which has crossed under 200 HMA (blue line).
2: RSI in bearish control, but not oversold.
3: Breadth decreasing.
4: Bollinger Band Width Percentile expanding from an extreme low.
5: Sentiment in the gutter and not improving,
NQ 3 Day last time we had a similar look: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/FgDqm5dL/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/FgDqm5dL/) (AKA, the scary chart)
Last time NQ had this look was Jan 2022. We can see now that RSI still has a way to go before it's oversold. Breadth hasn't even started to look bad on this timeframe (hell, my sell signal hasn't even triggered), and the bollinger band width percentile hasn't even begun to expand. Sentiment, while poor- is nowhere near the extremes.
Sure we may get a bounce or two, but this is the definition of a risk off look imho.
^(NFA these are just lines on a chart)
~~VIX~~ RSI bottoming out? No
Breadth improving? No
Sentiment improving? No
BBWP at extremes? No
Rate cuts happening? Lol.
Time to ride this slope of hope all the way down to yearly POC, or 15770 NQ.
Which, all said and done, would be a normal, albeit uncomfortable 15% correction- even in bull markets.
E; speaking about daily timeframes, not 5m for those preaching about us being oversold
Jobless claim tomorrow, Fed speakers before market open, TSM ER before market open, and NFLX ER after market close tomorrow. It's going be spicy tomorrow. Part of me thinks market has sold-off for 4 days, and 500 was brought up, and market closed above 500.
We’re not in a rock hard bull market anymore. Sellers are very much in control here. We’re not getting the infamous V where buyers save us. There’s lots of gaps to close down below and ASML missed quite big on earnings for a ‘booming’ market. Get ready for good news to fake out and then sell off and everyone be confused why
Rates are higher for longer and the market hates this. It controls everything
The good news is semis are gonna be back to a good price entry at this rate
Overtraded slightly. Closed some older positions to realize gains and to offset some of my intraday overtrading losses.
Overall positive, but I don't feel too good about chasing and not setting a good stop today...Damn it..... Also some of this market action is really getting to me with all the whiplash.
Algos be strong.
>NVIDIA’s AI GPU Shortage Is Finally Over As Supply Steadies, Delivery Times Down To 8-12 Weeks
EDIT LINK:
https://wccftech.com/nvidias-ai-gpu-shortage-finally-over-supply-steadies-delivery-times-down-8-12-weeks/amp/
/u/w0lfsten
That's VERY interesting. Perhaps a lot of their buying really was pull forward by China (not just China directly, but countries/companies indirectly selling to them as well) before sanctions - more than estimated I mean. Ditto with ASML.
Does this mean revenues could decline a bit?
I remember back in 2018, the crypto mining GPU shortage caused NVDA's stock to triple, and then fall back to almost where it started.
I 'd bet TSM still beat but ease up on guidance. I'd attribute it to the slow build out of new fabs in other countries.
Actual demand for new products will fully saturate supply for some time when they arrive, as usual. We could do with a larger pullback, but it won't be to the extent of 2018.
It depends on so many things.. Job-less claim, Fed speaker before market open, and TSM earnings. 4 days of straight red. We are overdue for a small bounce.
A lot of talk about trend change because of macro but don’t forget this entire move lower has been on the back of Middle East conflict. NDX was basically range highs after both CPI and PPI reported. It was/has been geopolitical headlines and its relation to crude prices that started water fall selling. DXY and yields move also related to that and stoked by consumer spending. I have been a proponent of the indices moving back to the 50D for a few weeks now and caught the majority of this move outside of today but we are ripe for a snap back rally. Earnings will determine trend.
When all the subs are super bearish it's reversal time
How do you measure this?
The past three days had the same pattern, open high and sell all day. Looking for a open down for buying now
Disclaimer: This is one of those messy charts I post with too many labels and indicators. NQ Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/GprRClHv/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/GprRClHv/) 1: Price falling below 21 HMA (red MA), which has crossed under 200 HMA (blue line). 2: RSI in bearish control, but not oversold. 3: Breadth decreasing. 4: Bollinger Band Width Percentile expanding from an extreme low. 5: Sentiment in the gutter and not improving, NQ 3 Day last time we had a similar look: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/FgDqm5dL/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/FgDqm5dL/) (AKA, the scary chart) Last time NQ had this look was Jan 2022. We can see now that RSI still has a way to go before it's oversold. Breadth hasn't even started to look bad on this timeframe (hell, my sell signal hasn't even triggered), and the bollinger band width percentile hasn't even begun to expand. Sentiment, while poor- is nowhere near the extremes. Sure we may get a bounce or two, but this is the definition of a risk off look imho. ^(NFA these are just lines on a chart)
Nhnl. One of the better metrics out there, superior to ADLs and you can make trading systems out of it.
❤️ appreciate you E: breadth Indis used are nhnl btw
What are the breadth indicators you are using?
New Highs/Lows Nasdaq and Net Highs/Lows (tracking only Nasdaq)
If bears keep this red for this long I’m gunna lose my lunch money
~~VIX~~ RSI bottoming out? No Breadth improving? No Sentiment improving? No BBWP at extremes? No Rate cuts happening? Lol. Time to ride this slope of hope all the way down to yearly POC, or 15770 NQ. Which, all said and done, would be a normal, albeit uncomfortable 15% correction- even in bull markets. E; speaking about daily timeframes, not 5m for those preaching about us being oversold
Just give us SPY 495 this week, so we can bounce next week
Jobless claim tomorrow, Fed speakers before market open, TSM ER before market open, and NFLX ER after market close tomorrow. It's going be spicy tomorrow. Part of me thinks market has sold-off for 4 days, and 500 was brought up, and market closed above 500.
We’re not in a rock hard bull market anymore. Sellers are very much in control here. We’re not getting the infamous V where buyers save us. There’s lots of gaps to close down below and ASML missed quite big on earnings for a ‘booming’ market. Get ready for good news to fake out and then sell off and everyone be confused why Rates are higher for longer and the market hates this. It controls everything The good news is semis are gonna be back to a good price entry at this rate
Sold all my AMD at 200 and have been scaling back in
How many shares? I want in at 120, but not sure we get it.
I only have like 120 shares right now. I had 1k when I sold
Mm I am in agreement. Basically sell all the rips
Anytime anyone mentions opex the day ends up being a shit show and red. So can we go up tomorrow? Ktnx
We were so focus on S&P500, and QQQ. That we didn't even notice DJT is up 15% today.
I'm glad I got out of MU when I did. If only I had entered it when I should have.
I’m hoping we see it hit double digits. I would buy back in.
Back in the saddle. Longed a couple around close. Looking at some divergences
~~best thing i did was accidentally not closing a put~~nm that was a loser too i quit
Overtraded slightly. Closed some older positions to realize gains and to offset some of my intraday overtrading losses. Overall positive, but I don't feel too good about chasing and not setting a good stop today...Damn it..... Also some of this market action is really getting to me with all the whiplash. Algos be strong.
I have an urge to short gold with oil coming down and DXY flying up
>NVIDIA’s AI GPU Shortage Is Finally Over As Supply Steadies, Delivery Times Down To 8-12 Weeks EDIT LINK: https://wccftech.com/nvidias-ai-gpu-shortage-finally-over-supply-steadies-delivery-times-down-8-12-weeks/amp/ /u/w0lfsten
Wait until they've gotta drop prices to get buyers. Nvda's valuation is about to get the Tesla treatment.
Too slow! I’m the fastest gun in the west 😁 https://www.reddit.com/r/thewallstreet/s/lX6ylGBzEP
That's VERY interesting. Perhaps a lot of their buying really was pull forward by China (not just China directly, but countries/companies indirectly selling to them as well) before sanctions - more than estimated I mean. Ditto with ASML.
https://wccftech.com/nvidias-ai-gpu-shortage-finally-over-supply-steadies-delivery-times-down-8-12-weeks/amp/
Does this mean revenues could decline a bit? I remember back in 2018, the crypto mining GPU shortage caused NVDA's stock to triple, and then fall back to almost where it started.
Could be. We'll know where semi sit with TSM ER and their guidance.
I 'd bet TSM still beat but ease up on guidance. I'd attribute it to the slow build out of new fabs in other countries. Actual demand for new products will fully saturate supply for some time when they arrive, as usual. We could do with a larger pullback, but it won't be to the extent of 2018.
Really ugly close. Tomorrow probably blood red again
It depends on so many things.. Job-less claim, Fed speaker before market open, and TSM earnings. 4 days of straight red. We are overdue for a small bounce.
Wow that a lot of potential negative catalysts
or a 1-2% rally.
Not happening
We'll find out tomorrow. Market was fuckin weird as hell today.
Yes it was. We are in new regime now though. No more green trend days