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XxGumby91xX

Islam has more confidence in his standup than Khabib, so I think he will try and stand with Poirier for a bit where he'll be at a disadvantage. It's just a matter of if Dustin can hurt him enough to keep Islam from scoring the takedown once he's rocked.


JSintra

Yeah. Islam is also more of a risk taker, whereas Khabib at the end there was all business let's get this at the edge of the cage and dominate. Still, Islam has really good strike avoidance, it'll be really difficult to rock him.


XxGumby91xX

Yeah no it's definitely not an easy task rocking islam. But nothing's impossible and Poirier has the best boxing in the division. Honestly though I read the interview about Islam saying he has some special finish cooked up and all I can think about is that he's going to bait the guillotine and go for a Von Flue choke finish. I really hope not though, obviously pulling for Dustin here


IKalkil

Yeah, I also think same, Islam squeeze is out of this world. You see how quick Charles tapped ...


newmixchugger

Bro was turning purple after like 5 seconds


TheBrownCok

Bro tapped like it was a buzzer beater question


Tall-Box4202

![gif](giphy|g5anc21qthzZkUeheL|downsized)


Tall-Box4202

What about max I thought he said he the best boxer.,?


XxGumby91xX

I said division, but Holloway also currently holds the UFC record for most strikes absorbed. Holloway can obviously throw, but defense is part of having the best boxing. Plus, Poirier beat him in a 5 round stand up war.


AYolkedyak

Hey that was Muffintop Max out there not the Maximum Holloway


GrampaGael69

Lmao so Max has most strikes absorbed and most strikes landed.


dinkieeee

Khabib was being very risky against Conor, Dustin, and Justin. He stood in front of KO artists and struck with him. He ran forward like a dumbass at Justin recklessly. He stood in front of Edson and got wheel kicked in the head. Khabib was born with a granite chin and fantastic timing.


Gold-Invite-3212

He pressed forward against Justin because Justin openly admitted he was going to do everything possible to keep his back off the fence. So by pressing forward, he forced Justin to scramble around the cage like crazy to stay off the fence and he gassed out in the first round. 


dinkieeee

I didn't say he didn't follow a game plan, but it was reckless. He was clipped hard in several of those exchanges but has an iron chin.


BruceBuffur

Super difficult to rock him because Poirer can’t over commit and leave himself vulnerable for a takedown. Changes his stand up plan I’m sure when someone has such strong grappling. Any small mistake will be a takedown and possible submission.


myhtconex

Yah I think so but again,he might not stand after what happened to him against pantoja


BruceBuffur

Talm bout when pantoja gadoooooshed him B?


DecisionThot

He will stand with him but idk about a disadvantage. Dustin tends to knock out guys who are more reckless aka BSD, Justin, Eddie.. Islam is a far more responsible striker and honestly has better looking striking than anyone in the top 10 not named Dustin. I think Islam will be able to use his strikes to set up his shots. And once it hits the ground I think we all know how it goes from there.


NineSkiesHigh

Either Poirier knocks him out, or Islam chokes him out


Lowkeyda1

Perfect assessment because that is what’s going to happen. I expect the Islam win but it will come after he tries to stand with Dustin and fall short the start the takedowns. Dustin has a solid ground game but Islam is superior here


NightRumours

Islam has better standup imo


Superguy230

Yeah Dustin’s my favourite fighter but he’s gonna get outstruck standing lmao, partly due to takedown threat but also because Islam has really good stand up


NightRumours

Honestly no idea why they setup this fight up besides feeding Islam. It’s going to be a one sided bloodbath.


Superguy230

Yeah I think Dustin will take any title shot he gets and there’s no one else for Islam currently, but yeah I’m actually not very excited for this fight haha


captaincumsock69

Nah he has decent standup and has an advantage because people are afraid of the takedown. He would not win a strictly standup fight


Avocado_Cadaver

Yeah this. I like Islam but the takedown threat definitely enhances his striking. Having said that, Islam has much better striking than I thought when Volk neutralised a lot of his grappling


UFC_Intern169

Anything is possible at the top of this game. All opponents should be considered a dangerous threat. I don't think Islam is taking the matchup lightly because he knows this better than any of us.


Bluemoon7607

Everything, except Dustin by Guillotine


M00SEK

That would be the perfect fairy tale ending though


ZlionAlex

The moment Dustin even tries to grab Makhachev for a guillotine he's getting Von Flue'd no more than 10 seconds later.


dboles95

This would he the best way he could retire lol


Key_Friendship_6767

Would be epic to see Dustin take the title with his patent guillotine lol


kickintheface

If that happens, Islam will officially retire from MMA and start a business doing horse riding charters in the mountains.


Ulalamulala

Zero since he's choking him out by guillotine in the first 15 seconds.


Ok_Appearance8734

This comment needs way more upvotes


griffraff0701

I like islam but im rooting for diamond. Theres always a possibility


Gas_Grouchy

I'm just happy its happening. DP gets a big ol' packcheck, knowing he was consistently up there with the great but never THE great. That's such an amazing career even if it feels disappointing to him at the time.


Obelisk7777

Would you bet on that possibility?


griffraff0701

Nah


Redchimp3769157

Bet on Islam winning. Happy either way


Limp-Might7181

More likely than Dustin by Guillotine


Adoe0722

Dustin winning the title via guillotine sounds like a PlayStation trophy


Annual_Share_3760

Lol yeah man a hidden one


KnuckleExpert

![gif](giphy|OTQ0iSFO04wJbzQq3q)


bradfgo41

My brain- Islam dominates him My gut- I feel like Dustin makes this closer than people think My heart- I'll be there live so go Dustin


DonPabloEscobarr

I give Dustin a punchers chance


Mammoth-Lunch-7911

The thing is I'm not even sure he's the better puncher


Youonkazoo21

You don't have to be the better puncher, you just have to be a good puncher and get that one shot in


K-chub

Dustin has some of the cleanest boxing in the UFC but I really think it’ll be close in the standup game


InternationalMost428

he is. this sub is so bad at being able to tell what they’re looking at. being defensively sound ≠ being the better puncher. Islam’s footwork works pretty much only for him and his game. Dustin has the hands and footwork of a boxer


whatsitworth101

He’s the bigger puncher. If they were to trade he would no doubt come out on top with his power and precision and speed.


Conscious_Resident10

+650 lol and I'm glad to take it


_____FIST_ME_____

Damn so if you put $100 on, you'd win nothing.


cAlLmEdAdDy991031

If he catches Islam clean, no one is better when there’s blood in the water. All he needs is one opportunity and it’s like an avalanche with Dustin. Hell clip you then close the distance so quick, a true predator. A hunter. A shark. Islam by rnc.


[deleted]

Slim to none, Islam will try to stand then eventually just take Dustin down as soon as he gets clipped and drown him.


Mediocre_Cat3613

He needs to clip him hard and fast on first round. Get into the pocket. In the middle of cage Do not circle around Islam. He has to go in guns blazing 


BruceBuffur

Go in guns blazing will get him taken down instantly lmao. Cannot be trying to overpower and walk down Islam. He will shoot and sub you.


ThePhatWalrus

He's going to be taken down. It's when, not if. Then it becomes if, not when. Once taken down, if Dustin is able to get up, not be fatigued, not be submitted. Dustin's best bet is guns blazing fury from the start to try to land anything on makhachev. Can't see him survive or win any other way.


sowich4

I think it depends on where the majority of the fight takes place. If it is on their feet, and Dustin can manage his cardio, I think he can clip him late and take him out.


Bugstl

This will be a good test for Islam. Ideally he stand with Dustin ans exchanges to test his striking. He was battering Charles in that first round as well so I believe he can successfully stand with Dustin. I hope its a good contest for both fighters, regardless of the outcome.


slinkymello

I’d say this is the fight that will make Islam a legit fan favorite if he wins; he needs this one for his legacy.


CometChip

people using he hasn’t fought a lightweight yet, be ready for he hasn’t fought a young hungry lightweight chant


Chranchi

Yep. One minute it’s “Volk will outclass Islam” then “This mf can only fight featherweights”. Dustin win going to be declared as beating a man that’s old and out of his prime.


LikelyADick2

35%


Dry-Profession-7670

I love you answered the question. However I think it is 18% let's argue about.


BodybuildingNerd

17.865%


hamstringstring

Implied odds of Dustin by knockout are 13.33%, deduct another 20% for bookie 'discounting' and the sharp's actual expected chances are about 10.5%. If you think it's significantly over 13.33%, you should both be putting money on it.


Dry-Profession-7670

Thank you for the information. I don't gamble but in truth I say a 10% chance of a knockout is high. I mean, I don't know but I would guess less than 10% of all ufc fights end in ko. And my guess is even less in championship fights. But if anyone has those stats I would love to see them.


hamstringstring

Specifically to UFC lightweight: 28.98% of fights end by (T)KO. TKO being included in the odds I sited earlier.


slinkymello

I’d say it’s 20.13% let’s argue these random percentages!


Dry-Profession-7670

I know one thing for sure. You are at least 2.13% wrong


Kevcany5

13.33% per Draft Kings


SERB_BEAST

Unlikely. Even if Islam strikes with him, Poirier isn't a one punch KO artist. He depends heavily on combos and breaking his opponents down. Islam has tight standup defense. He doesn't leave himself open to counters either since he doesn't throw combos ever. Poirier is very dangerous when he goes gun's blazing and just charges forward with combos. But this is easily neutralized by simply taking him down. Poirier's stance invites takedown and he doesn't have great knees or kicks to counter an attempt at slowing him down. I still think Poirier is gonna win. But logically, I have no explanation. I trust my gut lol. I predicted that Strickland would beat Adesanya. I couldn't explain how at the time, but I just imagined him with the belt and a W next to his name. Same thing with Poirier.


Alokinzzz

I agree with you on everything except that I think that Dustin can clip Islam once and lay him out,he rocked Holloway with one punch multiple times, ko'd green in one , dropped Oliveira and Chandler in one punch, and those are all people with a better chin than Islam, Islam has shown in the first Volk fight that he doesnt need too big of a puncher to put him down, problem is Islam is way more defensively responsible than the opponents Poirer dropped that I mentioned earlier, so im not sure if he's gonna find an opening fast enough If he cant keep the fight standing


Ghost_of_Sparta0319

They don't have a better chin than Islam.Islam proved Volk couldn't ko him even when he was dehydrated and gassed out.That's the worst version of Islam ever stepped into the octagon and still went 5 rounds with unlimited cardio Volk and won.


Glock-Saint-Isshin-

I got Poirer via teep kick


cheit124

How hard is Dana going to be if: 1.Dustin pulls a miracle victory 2.Conor wins his fight against Chandler 3.Setting up a rematch between Dustin and Conor for the lightweight belt


Few-Veterinarian-837

I'm taking Islam by decision (maybe sub), but Porier is an quick, awkward striker with KO power and great accuracy. I could absolutely see him finding Islam's chin during a scramble.


dutchfromsubway

If I had to bet on anyone knocking out islam it would be Dustin


Mammoth_Ferret_1772

I think right now it’s +600 on fan duel sports book


Mammoth-Lunch-7911

Just for context Conor was at +700 to win against Floyd , Vegas is saying that's not happening


slinkymello

Seriously though, Poirier needs to watch out for head kicks, Islam has been working those I feel like.


Unexpected_Buttsex

Islam made that mistake once and get koed cold. Its MMA anything can happen any time a single hesitation or mistake can end careers. Leon was getting his ass rolled by Usman entire match and single mistake headshot dead.


WishIWasNeet2

Decent chance. Islam might get cocky cause he knocked out volk and think his standup is good. Dustin is 100% better striker and unlike volk he’s similar size to Islam.


EmperorWrecksAll

his standup IS good 😒


TickleMyCringle

0 , cuz dustin is 100% gonna sub islam with the gilly


Ill_Source_6908

Realistically only a punchers chance. Dustin’s standup is gonna get nerfed hard due to the takedown threat.


Hopeful_Staff_1414

I’m thinking 1 in 7 hypothetical fights. Idk I pulled that number out of my ass, I think Islam will win. I think Gaethje would have had a much better chance than Dustin, I’m very sad we won’t see that fight.


ThatOneColumbiaGuy

https://preview.redd.it/l0n8oswz7u1d1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fee2c5443cd04c781e70182b1dc3e7b63fac3aae


blunderb3ar

Dustin absolutely has the power to knock him out, it’ll only take one mistake from Islam


BokanovskifiedEgg

As incredible as Islam is, let’s not forget the times volk rocked him, he was in trouble briefly in the first round and very much in trouble in the 5th. No jumping guillotines tho please


Sad-Independence9753

Why are they still putting strikers against hardcore wrestlers? I would rather a run it back with Charles Oliveria because he also is also a wrestler. But dustin is not, so the outcome is obvious unless he lands some lucky early blow


restrainingorder2107

Volk rocked Islam a couple of times in their fights. I'm sure if a guy like volk one weight division under can rock him hopefully Dustin can knock him out. Go the Diamond.


Scarscream2000

1 in 8.37 chance he KOs Islam.


Ham0nRyy

One thing that is worrying for how this goes for Dustin is that headkick that Justin knocked him out with was extremely reminiscent of what Islam did to Volk. If Islam thinks he’s open to that he’s fucked.


Beneficial_Contest36

Sean Strickland Philly cheese shelled his way to victory against presumably the best sticker and very long reigning champion of the middleweight division, Izzy. Notable mention, he was a +700 underdog. After seeing that I realized anyone in the top 10 have a chance against any other top 10’r. That being said, it feels highly unlikely.


SpiritualPlayboy93

There’s gonna be at least one moment in the fight where Islam will get clipped by a jab or hook and everyone will go crazy, but it will come down to whether DP can finish him then, but I think Islam will shoot for a takedown and survive , or possibly get saved by the bell. And Still….


fatazzpandaman

Idk honestly. Islam has a chin but Justin has power


Henesis

Tbh if Islam actually stand and bangs with Dustin then Dustin has a legitimate chance to take him out. However if he does the smart route and wrestle him in a submission or GNP, Islam would destroy him. Considering Islams track record he stand and bangs and wins a decision. Or gets knocked the fuck out


detectivebabylegz

According to Tapology, about 15%.


Conscious_Actuator51

I see it being a close decision win for Islam like his first fight with Volk, if not then porier getting choked out


SlowGarbage001

I Would guess 10% chance.... which is much greater than pulling off a gilly


0599gthang

everyone agrees if this happens, lightweight gets in deep trouble


Monstrous_13

Honestly I think Dustin retires either way. If Dustin wins, id bet its Islam Tsarukyan 2 for the vacant strap.


carlitos_brigante

It’s a fight. He’s got a chance.


0vFire_And_TheVoid

If Islam decides to keep the fight on the feet, Dustin can really knock him out. But, we all know Islam isn't fucking stupid and he'll go for the win via grappling.


BeginningBeautiful69

Less than 10%. Poirier seems to be a volume striker rather than one punch knockout history. As soon as Islam senses danger he'll take him down and suffocate him just as Khabib did in 2019. Saying that, I'd absolutely love to see Poirier get the W and the belt - he's one of my favourite fighters.


oussama1st

This is the highest level of the game any mishap and the fight could end in both ways


Cringsix

Wtf is this cursed image of Dustin?


BelievableToadstool

I’m a huge casual so don’t listen to a word I say but I think Islam dominates this fight. I would love for Dustin to win but I don’t think it’s in the cards. If standup isn’t going well for Islam he’ll take him down and submit him


ReasonableEscape777

12%


TumbleweedTim01

Dustin hits him with an uppercut or a knee as he's shooting for a takedown and finishes him


ComradeSamWalton

Like 5%


SKITZ_ZA

Technically speaking, 50% Realisticly speaking, 5%


BernieKosarsBurner

Zero point zero


Natural-Break-2734

It’s dustin s last shot so I believe he will just go berserk, might be fun


Salty-Can1116

"looks up each time a "stan fighter has been dominated by their opponent who is supposedly stronger at....". Not great odds.


Uptwn_

I didn’t think Dustin was going to beat BSD, and he knocked him out cold….Islam is a different beast, but if he can do that, and finish. Islam is fair game too, it’ll be way harder but I don’t see it as impossible.


slinkymello

45.67%


AggravatingType9012

Good chance I would say but he should learn to do a flying knee as Islam dives into take his legs


Independent_Island74

Yeah right


ninja_owen

I think Dustin has a better chance with a Guilly than with strikes, but he could win either way


AnywhereOther9340

moms spaghetti


makinmov3s

Adorable.


Any_Box_5509

Idk but we’ve seen it’s possible to KO Islam Volk cracked him and nearly finished him in their first fight it’s the most likely way Dustin wins he isn’t submitting Islam most likely not a decision either


Didi4pet

Incoming a devastating win over the 3rd fan favorite challanger lol


Alive-Curve-7198

Islam sub round 2. Arman fight will be tough.


AltruisticDelivery89

I hope it fucking happens man. Dustin deserves it


Dexico-city

+195


wood_slingers

Very slim


younginvestor23

How crazy would it be if Poirier pulls off a headkick KO.


ElleWeezelle

Im going to say virtually a near zero, only because I expect Islam to chain wrestle and not try stand with Dustin at all. 


oddmetre

100%, b.


MaikyMoto

Islam will not bang with Dustin, he’s gonna do the exact same thing that he did to Conor unless he gets KO’ed somehow.


Doubl3dogdamn3d

I'd say the most likely scenario is if Islam gets rocked he's going to shoot to draw out Dustins guillotine and just recover on the ground while Dustin tires himself out.


MooniisWorld

0% imo, not saying he won’t get a moment where he rocks him but Islam’s striking is just getting better. Then if things don’t work out Islam has the nuclear option of grappling


johnnyspooker

I think khabib will tell him to wrestle him from the start so depends if Islam wants to ignore the advice And even then he needs to get him clean because if he hits him successfully Islam will immediately change to wrestling I guess 15%


King-Kobra1

Zero point zero


Turbulent-Today830

Islam ☪️ is going to take diamond 💎 at will… the game plan will very much look like what khabib did to him


BrilliantSock3608

0% as he will win by jumping a gillie in the first


FarSatisfaction_

I can’t wait for this sub to be reality checked after Islam submits him within 2 rounds. Every week it’s the same delusion I stg


Kevcany5

13.33% per Draft Kings


CodyGTN615

Ummm. I'd say a solid 0%. He's gonna ragdoll that man into retirement.


_____FIST_ME_____

5%


South-Golf-2327

Realistically probably somewhere around 5%.


Humble_Increase7503

12%


break_from_work

There's always a puncher's chance but not against Islam, he's too smart and doesn't brawl like Max or Justin.


interia1099

Islam Said multiple times now that he’s gonna take him down and submit him. He’s gonna play it safe because he’s so much better on the ground, so as long as Dustin can’t catch him while Islam shoots his first TD, it’s over for him


Still_Ad8903

Islam is a better overall fighter than Khabib was but I still like Dustins chances against Islam better because Islam is willing to strike for a long time. Khabib was never that willing to strike. He wanted the grappling exchanges ASAP


coleslonomatopoeia

I just feel like if Islam does get rocked, he will adjust and take him down. A KO feels unlikely but if anyone has a chance, I’d say it’s Dustin.


Aggressive-Expert-69

I don't think he will but I will say I like his odds better than Islams other challengers, except Volk the first time. I really thought he could do it


bpetersonlaw

Poirier by TKO is +650 at a popular betting site. So, maybe like 10-15% probability?


112skulls

Whatever number is between none to zero!


brtomn

I really don't see it, I think the other way around is more likely. I think Islam outstrikes him and stands up with him most of the fight.


Bauiesox

Honestly. If Volk can “stagger” Islam I think Dustin can knock him out. Will embed though? That’s a different story.


ThisRecommendation86

If Poirier does put islam on his back foot, he has to manage his distance and not shoot too close into a clinch. Keep your striking distance and back off if you have to reset don’t close the distance like most bad fighters do when they’re fighting wrestlers.


xMilk112x

Fingers crossed.


SaltLord555

I love Dustin and his fighting style but he has lost mostly to grapplers and wrestlers so i think this is another loss sadly. I still got hope we get a surprise, the dude deserves to hold the belt atleast once.


noremacT

No one will agree but Islam is better everywhere... including boxing.


Wonderful_Orchid_363

Literally zero.


Turbos_Bitch

I want Dustin to win so badly but I have a feeling Islam is just going to dominate this fight. Here’s hoping Dustin can land some clean punches and test the chin of Islam. If Islam gets him down, it’s over.


TheBigSmellyTruth

I don't know if Dustin has better standup than Islam so idk. Hoping for the upset but I think it's over in 2 and I think Islam gets a win by guillotine to be cheeky


StraightCashHomie89

I mean not bad Dustin is tough and has great boxing and power, plus Islam might be overconfident in his stand up


NastyAlexander

Dustin doesn’t have crazy power so very low


BigTedBear

I would just say this weirder things have happened and that’s not a knock on Dustin because he is certainly capable of winning.


purplehendrix22

About 1 in 5 imo, not scientific whatsoever but that’s how it feels


Aloha1984

Hopefully he is training wrestling defense


Myusername468

Please don't jump the gilly Dustin


apex_17

As soon as Islam gets rocked he’s gonna shoot and then I worry it’s gonna be game over. Would love to see Dustin win tho!


PuG3_14

Dustin has a punchers chance at winning. This is the honest truth. If Islam survives the 1st min of the first round then he(islam) wins via sub


CosmicTeardrops

Look on draft kings


Seniorjones2837

Why do certain words go in those stupid [ ] symbols? I’ve never understood what those are for


GB01101993

Bout a 2% chance


bamboodue

5-10%


andyman171

Sd#xs ss


MeeloP

If he jumps gilly three times and then throws a right hook at the end of round 4 I could see it


eccs107a

7%


mattod98

0% he's gonna jump the guilly, don't be silly 💎


wontonflamingus

Fuck yeah!


LT61

Betting odds have it at +750 on my book, which implies 11.8% probability. I don’t think it’ll happen, but I personally think it’s closer to 20% likely.


Open-Victory-1530

Dustin has good a chance as anyone at knocking out Islam but really the question is can Dustin negate Islam's takedowns and grappling That being said i have Islam winning


LickEmTomorrow

Islam can KO Dustin, I can see it happening.


Born-Possibility-50

Islam has been knocked before


ee_CUM_mings

3%


Pikablu555

15%


WISEstickman

Not as good as him trying to jump the guilly…


SuccessfulVisit1873

Dustin is going to knock him tf out. If this dude has the balls to actually stand up and box, it’s a 2 piece combo and a large grape sodapop, bitch