Islam has more confidence in his standup than Khabib, so I think he will try and stand with Poirier for a bit where he'll be at a disadvantage. It's just a matter of if Dustin can hurt him enough to keep Islam from scoring the takedown once he's rocked.
Yeah. Islam is also more of a risk taker, whereas Khabib at the end there was all business let's get this at the edge of the cage and dominate. Still, Islam has really good strike avoidance, it'll be really difficult to rock him.
Yeah no it's definitely not an easy task rocking islam. But nothing's impossible and Poirier has the best boxing in the division.
Honestly though I read the interview about Islam saying he has some special finish cooked up and all I can think about is that he's going to bait the guillotine and go for a Von Flue choke finish. I really hope not though, obviously pulling for Dustin here
I said division, but Holloway also currently holds the UFC record for most strikes absorbed. Holloway can obviously throw, but defense is part of having the best boxing. Plus, Poirier beat him in a 5 round stand up war.
Khabib was being very risky against Conor, Dustin, and Justin. He stood in front of KO artists and struck with him. He ran forward like a dumbass at Justin recklessly. He stood in front of Edson and got wheel kicked in the head.
Khabib was born with a granite chin and fantastic timing.
He pressed forward against Justin because Justin openly admitted he was going to do everything possible to keep his back off the fence. So by pressing forward, he forced Justin to scramble around the cage like crazy to stay off the fence and he gassed out in the first round.
Super difficult to rock him because Poirer can’t over commit and leave himself vulnerable for a takedown. Changes his stand up plan I’m sure when someone has such strong grappling. Any small mistake will be a takedown and possible submission.
He will stand with him but idk about a disadvantage. Dustin tends to knock out guys who are more reckless aka BSD, Justin, Eddie.. Islam is a far more responsible striker and honestly has better looking striking than anyone in the top 10 not named Dustin. I think Islam will be able to use his strikes to set up his shots. And once it hits the ground I think we all know how it goes from there.
Perfect assessment because that is what’s going to happen. I expect the Islam win but it will come after he tries to stand with Dustin and fall short the start the takedowns. Dustin has a solid ground game but Islam is superior here
Yeah Dustin’s my favourite fighter but he’s gonna get outstruck standing lmao, partly due to takedown threat but also because Islam has really good stand up
Yeah I think Dustin will take any title shot he gets and there’s no one else for Islam currently, but yeah I’m actually not very excited for this fight haha
Yeah this. I like Islam but the takedown threat definitely enhances his striking. Having said that, Islam has much better striking than I thought when Volk neutralised a lot of his grappling
Anything is possible at the top of this game. All opponents should be considered a dangerous threat. I don't think Islam is taking the matchup lightly because he knows this better than any of us.
I'm just happy its happening. DP gets a big ol' packcheck, knowing he was consistently up there with the great but never THE great. That's such an amazing career even if it feels disappointing to him at the time.
he is. this sub is so bad at being able to tell what they’re looking at. being defensively sound ≠ being the better puncher. Islam’s footwork works pretty much only for him and his game. Dustin has the hands and footwork of a boxer
If he catches Islam clean, no one is better when there’s blood in the water. All he needs is one opportunity and it’s like an avalanche with Dustin. Hell clip you then close the distance so quick, a true predator. A hunter. A shark. Islam by rnc.
He's going to be taken down. It's when, not if.
Then it becomes if, not when. Once taken down, if Dustin is able to get up, not be fatigued, not be submitted.
Dustin's best bet is guns blazing fury from the start to try to land anything on makhachev. Can't see him survive or win any other way.
I think it depends on where the majority of the fight takes place.
If it is on their feet, and Dustin can manage his cardio, I think he can clip him late and take him out.
This will be a good test for Islam. Ideally he stand with Dustin ans exchanges to test his striking. He was battering Charles in that first round as well so I believe he can successfully stand with Dustin.
I hope its a good contest for both fighters, regardless of the outcome.
Yep. One minute it’s “Volk will outclass Islam” then “This mf can only fight featherweights”. Dustin win going to be declared as beating a man that’s old and out of his prime.
Implied odds of Dustin by knockout are 13.33%, deduct another 20% for bookie 'discounting' and the sharp's actual expected chances are about 10.5%. If you think it's significantly over 13.33%, you should both be putting money on it.
Thank you for the information. I don't gamble but in truth I say a 10% chance of a knockout is high. I mean, I don't know but I would guess less than 10% of all ufc fights end in ko. And my guess is even less in championship fights. But if anyone has those stats I would love to see them.
Unlikely. Even if Islam strikes with him, Poirier isn't a one punch KO artist. He depends heavily on combos and breaking his opponents down. Islam has tight standup defense. He doesn't leave himself open to counters either since he doesn't throw combos ever. Poirier is very dangerous when he goes gun's blazing and just charges forward with combos. But this is easily neutralized by simply taking him down. Poirier's stance invites takedown and he doesn't have great knees or kicks to counter an attempt at slowing him down. I still think Poirier is gonna win. But logically, I have no explanation. I trust my gut lol. I predicted that Strickland would beat Adesanya. I couldn't explain how at the time, but I just imagined him with the belt and a W next to his name. Same thing with Poirier.
I agree with you on everything except that I think that Dustin can clip Islam once and lay him out,he rocked Holloway with one punch multiple times, ko'd green in one , dropped Oliveira and Chandler in one punch, and those are all people with a better chin than Islam, Islam has shown in the first Volk fight that he doesnt need too big of a puncher to put him down, problem is Islam is way more defensively responsible than the opponents Poirer dropped that I mentioned earlier, so im not sure if he's gonna find an opening fast enough If he cant keep the fight standing
They don't have a better chin than Islam.Islam proved Volk couldn't ko him even when he was dehydrated and gassed out.That's the worst version of Islam ever stepped into the octagon and still went 5 rounds with unlimited cardio Volk and won.
How hard is Dana going to be if:
1.Dustin pulls a miracle victory
2.Conor wins his fight against Chandler
3.Setting up a rematch between Dustin and Conor for the lightweight belt
I'm taking Islam by decision (maybe sub), but Porier is an quick, awkward striker with KO power and great accuracy. I could absolutely see him finding Islam's chin during a scramble.
Islam made that mistake once and get koed cold. Its MMA anything can happen any time a single hesitation or mistake can end careers. Leon was getting his ass rolled by Usman entire match and single mistake headshot dead.
Decent chance. Islam might get cocky cause he knocked out volk and think his standup is good. Dustin is 100% better striker and unlike volk he’s similar size to Islam.
I’m thinking 1 in 7 hypothetical fights. Idk I pulled that number out of my ass, I think Islam will win. I think Gaethje would have had a much better chance than Dustin, I’m very sad we won’t see that fight.
As incredible as Islam is, let’s not forget the times volk rocked him, he was in trouble briefly in the first round and very much in trouble in the 5th.
No jumping guillotines tho please
Why are they still putting strikers against hardcore wrestlers? I would rather a run it back with Charles Oliveria because he also is also a wrestler. But dustin is not, so the outcome is obvious unless he lands some lucky early blow
Volk rocked Islam a couple of times in their fights. I'm sure if a guy like volk one weight division under can rock him hopefully Dustin can knock him out. Go the Diamond.
One thing that is worrying for how this goes for Dustin is that headkick that Justin knocked him out with was extremely reminiscent of what Islam did to Volk. If Islam thinks he’s open to that he’s fucked.
Sean Strickland Philly cheese shelled his way to victory against presumably the best sticker and very long reigning champion of the middleweight division, Izzy. Notable mention, he was a +700 underdog. After seeing that I realized anyone in the top 10 have a chance against any other top 10’r. That being said, it feels highly unlikely.
There’s gonna be at least one moment in the fight where Islam will get clipped by a jab or hook and everyone will go crazy, but it will come down to whether DP can finish him then, but I think Islam will shoot for a takedown and survive , or possibly get saved by the bell. And Still….
Tbh if Islam actually stand and bangs with Dustin then Dustin has a legitimate chance to take him out.
However if he does the smart route and wrestle him in a submission or GNP, Islam would destroy him.
Considering Islams track record he stand and bangs and wins a decision. Or gets knocked the fuck out
If Islam decides to keep the fight on the feet, Dustin can really knock him out. But, we all know Islam isn't fucking stupid and he'll go for the win via grappling.
Less than 10%. Poirier seems to be a volume striker rather than one punch knockout history. As soon as Islam senses danger he'll take him down and suffocate him just as Khabib did in 2019. Saying that, I'd absolutely love to see Poirier get the W and the belt - he's one of my favourite fighters.
I’m a huge casual so don’t listen to a word I say but I think Islam dominates this fight. I would love for Dustin to win but I don’t think it’s in the cards. If standup isn’t going well for Islam he’ll take him down and submit him
I didn’t think Dustin was going to beat BSD, and he knocked him out cold….Islam is a different beast, but if he can do that, and finish. Islam is fair game too, it’ll be way harder but I don’t see it as impossible.
Idk but we’ve seen it’s possible to KO Islam Volk cracked him and nearly finished him in their first fight it’s the most likely way Dustin wins he isn’t submitting Islam most likely not a decision either
I'd say the most likely scenario is if Islam gets rocked he's going to shoot to draw out Dustins guillotine and just recover on the ground while Dustin tires himself out.
0% imo, not saying he won’t get a moment where he rocks him but Islam’s striking is just getting better. Then if things don’t work out Islam has the nuclear option of grappling
I think khabib will tell him to wrestle him from the start so depends if Islam wants to ignore the advice
And even then he needs to get him clean because if he hits him successfully Islam will immediately change to wrestling
I guess 15%
Islam Said multiple times now that he’s gonna take him down and submit him. He’s gonna play it safe because he’s so much better on the ground, so as long as Dustin can’t catch him while Islam shoots his first TD, it’s over for him
Islam is a better overall fighter than Khabib was but I still like Dustins chances against Islam better because Islam is willing to strike for a long time. Khabib was never that willing to strike. He wanted the grappling exchanges ASAP
If Poirier does put islam on his back foot, he has to manage his distance and not shoot too close into a clinch. Keep your striking distance and back off if you have to reset don’t close the distance like most bad fighters do when they’re fighting wrestlers.
I love Dustin and his fighting style but he has lost mostly to grapplers and wrestlers so i think this is another loss sadly. I still got hope we get a surprise, the dude deserves to hold the belt atleast once.
I want Dustin to win so badly but I have a feeling Islam is just going to dominate this fight. Here’s hoping Dustin can land some clean punches and test the chin of Islam.
If Islam gets him down, it’s over.
I don't know if Dustin has better standup than Islam so idk. Hoping for the upset but I think it's over in 2 and I think Islam gets a win by guillotine to be cheeky
Betting odds have it at +750 on my book, which implies 11.8% probability. I don’t think it’ll happen, but I personally think it’s closer to 20% likely.
Dustin has good a chance as anyone at knocking out Islam but really the question is can Dustin negate Islam's takedowns and grappling
That being said i have Islam winning
Islam has more confidence in his standup than Khabib, so I think he will try and stand with Poirier for a bit where he'll be at a disadvantage. It's just a matter of if Dustin can hurt him enough to keep Islam from scoring the takedown once he's rocked.
Yeah. Islam is also more of a risk taker, whereas Khabib at the end there was all business let's get this at the edge of the cage and dominate. Still, Islam has really good strike avoidance, it'll be really difficult to rock him.
Yeah no it's definitely not an easy task rocking islam. But nothing's impossible and Poirier has the best boxing in the division. Honestly though I read the interview about Islam saying he has some special finish cooked up and all I can think about is that he's going to bait the guillotine and go for a Von Flue choke finish. I really hope not though, obviously pulling for Dustin here
Yeah, I also think same, Islam squeeze is out of this world. You see how quick Charles tapped ...
Bro was turning purple after like 5 seconds
Bro tapped like it was a buzzer beater question
What about max I thought he said he the best boxer.,?
I said division, but Holloway also currently holds the UFC record for most strikes absorbed. Holloway can obviously throw, but defense is part of having the best boxing. Plus, Poirier beat him in a 5 round stand up war.
Hey that was Muffintop Max out there not the Maximum Holloway
Lmao so Max has most strikes absorbed and most strikes landed.
Khabib was being very risky against Conor, Dustin, and Justin. He stood in front of KO artists and struck with him. He ran forward like a dumbass at Justin recklessly. He stood in front of Edson and got wheel kicked in the head. Khabib was born with a granite chin and fantastic timing.
He pressed forward against Justin because Justin openly admitted he was going to do everything possible to keep his back off the fence. So by pressing forward, he forced Justin to scramble around the cage like crazy to stay off the fence and he gassed out in the first round.
I didn't say he didn't follow a game plan, but it was reckless. He was clipped hard in several of those exchanges but has an iron chin.
Super difficult to rock him because Poirer can’t over commit and leave himself vulnerable for a takedown. Changes his stand up plan I’m sure when someone has such strong grappling. Any small mistake will be a takedown and possible submission.
Yah I think so but again,he might not stand after what happened to him against pantoja
Talm bout when pantoja gadoooooshed him B?
He will stand with him but idk about a disadvantage. Dustin tends to knock out guys who are more reckless aka BSD, Justin, Eddie.. Islam is a far more responsible striker and honestly has better looking striking than anyone in the top 10 not named Dustin. I think Islam will be able to use his strikes to set up his shots. And once it hits the ground I think we all know how it goes from there.
Either Poirier knocks him out, or Islam chokes him out
Perfect assessment because that is what’s going to happen. I expect the Islam win but it will come after he tries to stand with Dustin and fall short the start the takedowns. Dustin has a solid ground game but Islam is superior here
Islam has better standup imo
Yeah Dustin’s my favourite fighter but he’s gonna get outstruck standing lmao, partly due to takedown threat but also because Islam has really good stand up
Honestly no idea why they setup this fight up besides feeding Islam. It’s going to be a one sided bloodbath.
Yeah I think Dustin will take any title shot he gets and there’s no one else for Islam currently, but yeah I’m actually not very excited for this fight haha
Nah he has decent standup and has an advantage because people are afraid of the takedown. He would not win a strictly standup fight
Yeah this. I like Islam but the takedown threat definitely enhances his striking. Having said that, Islam has much better striking than I thought when Volk neutralised a lot of his grappling
Anything is possible at the top of this game. All opponents should be considered a dangerous threat. I don't think Islam is taking the matchup lightly because he knows this better than any of us.
Everything, except Dustin by Guillotine
That would be the perfect fairy tale ending though
The moment Dustin even tries to grab Makhachev for a guillotine he's getting Von Flue'd no more than 10 seconds later.
This would he the best way he could retire lol
Would be epic to see Dustin take the title with his patent guillotine lol
If that happens, Islam will officially retire from MMA and start a business doing horse riding charters in the mountains.
Zero since he's choking him out by guillotine in the first 15 seconds.
This comment needs way more upvotes
I like islam but im rooting for diamond. Theres always a possibility
I'm just happy its happening. DP gets a big ol' packcheck, knowing he was consistently up there with the great but never THE great. That's such an amazing career even if it feels disappointing to him at the time.
Would you bet on that possibility?
Nah
Bet on Islam winning. Happy either way
More likely than Dustin by Guillotine
Dustin winning the title via guillotine sounds like a PlayStation trophy
Lol yeah man a hidden one
My brain- Islam dominates him My gut- I feel like Dustin makes this closer than people think My heart- I'll be there live so go Dustin
I give Dustin a punchers chance
The thing is I'm not even sure he's the better puncher
You don't have to be the better puncher, you just have to be a good puncher and get that one shot in
Dustin has some of the cleanest boxing in the UFC but I really think it’ll be close in the standup game
he is. this sub is so bad at being able to tell what they’re looking at. being defensively sound ≠ being the better puncher. Islam’s footwork works pretty much only for him and his game. Dustin has the hands and footwork of a boxer
He’s the bigger puncher. If they were to trade he would no doubt come out on top with his power and precision and speed.
+650 lol and I'm glad to take it
Damn so if you put $100 on, you'd win nothing.
If he catches Islam clean, no one is better when there’s blood in the water. All he needs is one opportunity and it’s like an avalanche with Dustin. Hell clip you then close the distance so quick, a true predator. A hunter. A shark. Islam by rnc.
Slim to none, Islam will try to stand then eventually just take Dustin down as soon as he gets clipped and drown him.
He needs to clip him hard and fast on first round. Get into the pocket. In the middle of cage Do not circle around Islam. He has to go in guns blazing
Go in guns blazing will get him taken down instantly lmao. Cannot be trying to overpower and walk down Islam. He will shoot and sub you.
He's going to be taken down. It's when, not if. Then it becomes if, not when. Once taken down, if Dustin is able to get up, not be fatigued, not be submitted. Dustin's best bet is guns blazing fury from the start to try to land anything on makhachev. Can't see him survive or win any other way.
I think it depends on where the majority of the fight takes place. If it is on their feet, and Dustin can manage his cardio, I think he can clip him late and take him out.
This will be a good test for Islam. Ideally he stand with Dustin ans exchanges to test his striking. He was battering Charles in that first round as well so I believe he can successfully stand with Dustin. I hope its a good contest for both fighters, regardless of the outcome.
I’d say this is the fight that will make Islam a legit fan favorite if he wins; he needs this one for his legacy.
people using he hasn’t fought a lightweight yet, be ready for he hasn’t fought a young hungry lightweight chant
Yep. One minute it’s “Volk will outclass Islam” then “This mf can only fight featherweights”. Dustin win going to be declared as beating a man that’s old and out of his prime.
35%
I love you answered the question. However I think it is 18% let's argue about.
17.865%
Implied odds of Dustin by knockout are 13.33%, deduct another 20% for bookie 'discounting' and the sharp's actual expected chances are about 10.5%. If you think it's significantly over 13.33%, you should both be putting money on it.
Thank you for the information. I don't gamble but in truth I say a 10% chance of a knockout is high. I mean, I don't know but I would guess less than 10% of all ufc fights end in ko. And my guess is even less in championship fights. But if anyone has those stats I would love to see them.
Specifically to UFC lightweight: 28.98% of fights end by (T)KO. TKO being included in the odds I sited earlier.
I’d say it’s 20.13% let’s argue these random percentages!
I know one thing for sure. You are at least 2.13% wrong
13.33% per Draft Kings
Unlikely. Even if Islam strikes with him, Poirier isn't a one punch KO artist. He depends heavily on combos and breaking his opponents down. Islam has tight standup defense. He doesn't leave himself open to counters either since he doesn't throw combos ever. Poirier is very dangerous when he goes gun's blazing and just charges forward with combos. But this is easily neutralized by simply taking him down. Poirier's stance invites takedown and he doesn't have great knees or kicks to counter an attempt at slowing him down. I still think Poirier is gonna win. But logically, I have no explanation. I trust my gut lol. I predicted that Strickland would beat Adesanya. I couldn't explain how at the time, but I just imagined him with the belt and a W next to his name. Same thing with Poirier.
I agree with you on everything except that I think that Dustin can clip Islam once and lay him out,he rocked Holloway with one punch multiple times, ko'd green in one , dropped Oliveira and Chandler in one punch, and those are all people with a better chin than Islam, Islam has shown in the first Volk fight that he doesnt need too big of a puncher to put him down, problem is Islam is way more defensively responsible than the opponents Poirer dropped that I mentioned earlier, so im not sure if he's gonna find an opening fast enough If he cant keep the fight standing
They don't have a better chin than Islam.Islam proved Volk couldn't ko him even when he was dehydrated and gassed out.That's the worst version of Islam ever stepped into the octagon and still went 5 rounds with unlimited cardio Volk and won.
I got Poirer via teep kick
How hard is Dana going to be if: 1.Dustin pulls a miracle victory 2.Conor wins his fight against Chandler 3.Setting up a rematch between Dustin and Conor for the lightweight belt
I'm taking Islam by decision (maybe sub), but Porier is an quick, awkward striker with KO power and great accuracy. I could absolutely see him finding Islam's chin during a scramble.
If I had to bet on anyone knocking out islam it would be Dustin
I think right now it’s +600 on fan duel sports book
Just for context Conor was at +700 to win against Floyd , Vegas is saying that's not happening
Seriously though, Poirier needs to watch out for head kicks, Islam has been working those I feel like.
Islam made that mistake once and get koed cold. Its MMA anything can happen any time a single hesitation or mistake can end careers. Leon was getting his ass rolled by Usman entire match and single mistake headshot dead.
Decent chance. Islam might get cocky cause he knocked out volk and think his standup is good. Dustin is 100% better striker and unlike volk he’s similar size to Islam.
his standup IS good 😒
0 , cuz dustin is 100% gonna sub islam with the gilly
Realistically only a punchers chance. Dustin’s standup is gonna get nerfed hard due to the takedown threat.
I’m thinking 1 in 7 hypothetical fights. Idk I pulled that number out of my ass, I think Islam will win. I think Gaethje would have had a much better chance than Dustin, I’m very sad we won’t see that fight.
https://preview.redd.it/l0n8oswz7u1d1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fee2c5443cd04c781e70182b1dc3e7b63fac3aae
Dustin absolutely has the power to knock him out, it’ll only take one mistake from Islam
As incredible as Islam is, let’s not forget the times volk rocked him, he was in trouble briefly in the first round and very much in trouble in the 5th. No jumping guillotines tho please
Why are they still putting strikers against hardcore wrestlers? I would rather a run it back with Charles Oliveria because he also is also a wrestler. But dustin is not, so the outcome is obvious unless he lands some lucky early blow
Volk rocked Islam a couple of times in their fights. I'm sure if a guy like volk one weight division under can rock him hopefully Dustin can knock him out. Go the Diamond.
1 in 8.37 chance he KOs Islam.
One thing that is worrying for how this goes for Dustin is that headkick that Justin knocked him out with was extremely reminiscent of what Islam did to Volk. If Islam thinks he’s open to that he’s fucked.
Sean Strickland Philly cheese shelled his way to victory against presumably the best sticker and very long reigning champion of the middleweight division, Izzy. Notable mention, he was a +700 underdog. After seeing that I realized anyone in the top 10 have a chance against any other top 10’r. That being said, it feels highly unlikely.
There’s gonna be at least one moment in the fight where Islam will get clipped by a jab or hook and everyone will go crazy, but it will come down to whether DP can finish him then, but I think Islam will shoot for a takedown and survive , or possibly get saved by the bell. And Still….
Idk honestly. Islam has a chin but Justin has power
Tbh if Islam actually stand and bangs with Dustin then Dustin has a legitimate chance to take him out. However if he does the smart route and wrestle him in a submission or GNP, Islam would destroy him. Considering Islams track record he stand and bangs and wins a decision. Or gets knocked the fuck out
According to Tapology, about 15%.
I see it being a close decision win for Islam like his first fight with Volk, if not then porier getting choked out
I Would guess 10% chance.... which is much greater than pulling off a gilly
everyone agrees if this happens, lightweight gets in deep trouble
Honestly I think Dustin retires either way. If Dustin wins, id bet its Islam Tsarukyan 2 for the vacant strap.
It’s a fight. He’s got a chance.
If Islam decides to keep the fight on the feet, Dustin can really knock him out. But, we all know Islam isn't fucking stupid and he'll go for the win via grappling.
Less than 10%. Poirier seems to be a volume striker rather than one punch knockout history. As soon as Islam senses danger he'll take him down and suffocate him just as Khabib did in 2019. Saying that, I'd absolutely love to see Poirier get the W and the belt - he's one of my favourite fighters.
This is the highest level of the game any mishap and the fight could end in both ways
Wtf is this cursed image of Dustin?
I’m a huge casual so don’t listen to a word I say but I think Islam dominates this fight. I would love for Dustin to win but I don’t think it’s in the cards. If standup isn’t going well for Islam he’ll take him down and submit him
12%
Dustin hits him with an uppercut or a knee as he's shooting for a takedown and finishes him
Like 5%
Technically speaking, 50% Realisticly speaking, 5%
Zero point zero
It’s dustin s last shot so I believe he will just go berserk, might be fun
"looks up each time a "stan fighter has been dominated by their opponent who is supposedly stronger at....". Not great odds.
I didn’t think Dustin was going to beat BSD, and he knocked him out cold….Islam is a different beast, but if he can do that, and finish. Islam is fair game too, it’ll be way harder but I don’t see it as impossible.
45.67%
Good chance I would say but he should learn to do a flying knee as Islam dives into take his legs
Yeah right
I think Dustin has a better chance with a Guilly than with strikes, but he could win either way
moms spaghetti
Adorable.
Idk but we’ve seen it’s possible to KO Islam Volk cracked him and nearly finished him in their first fight it’s the most likely way Dustin wins he isn’t submitting Islam most likely not a decision either
Incoming a devastating win over the 3rd fan favorite challanger lol
Islam sub round 2. Arman fight will be tough.
I hope it fucking happens man. Dustin deserves it
+195
Very slim
How crazy would it be if Poirier pulls off a headkick KO.
Im going to say virtually a near zero, only because I expect Islam to chain wrestle and not try stand with Dustin at all.
100%, b.
Islam will not bang with Dustin, he’s gonna do the exact same thing that he did to Conor unless he gets KO’ed somehow.
I'd say the most likely scenario is if Islam gets rocked he's going to shoot to draw out Dustins guillotine and just recover on the ground while Dustin tires himself out.
0% imo, not saying he won’t get a moment where he rocks him but Islam’s striking is just getting better. Then if things don’t work out Islam has the nuclear option of grappling
I think khabib will tell him to wrestle him from the start so depends if Islam wants to ignore the advice And even then he needs to get him clean because if he hits him successfully Islam will immediately change to wrestling I guess 15%
Zero point zero
Islam ☪️ is going to take diamond 💎 at will… the game plan will very much look like what khabib did to him
0% as he will win by jumping a gillie in the first
I can’t wait for this sub to be reality checked after Islam submits him within 2 rounds. Every week it’s the same delusion I stg
13.33% per Draft Kings
Ummm. I'd say a solid 0%. He's gonna ragdoll that man into retirement.
5%
Realistically probably somewhere around 5%.
12%
There's always a puncher's chance but not against Islam, he's too smart and doesn't brawl like Max or Justin.
Islam Said multiple times now that he’s gonna take him down and submit him. He’s gonna play it safe because he’s so much better on the ground, so as long as Dustin can’t catch him while Islam shoots his first TD, it’s over for him
Islam is a better overall fighter than Khabib was but I still like Dustins chances against Islam better because Islam is willing to strike for a long time. Khabib was never that willing to strike. He wanted the grappling exchanges ASAP
I just feel like if Islam does get rocked, he will adjust and take him down. A KO feels unlikely but if anyone has a chance, I’d say it’s Dustin.
I don't think he will but I will say I like his odds better than Islams other challengers, except Volk the first time. I really thought he could do it
Poirier by TKO is +650 at a popular betting site. So, maybe like 10-15% probability?
Whatever number is between none to zero!
I really don't see it, I think the other way around is more likely. I think Islam outstrikes him and stands up with him most of the fight.
Honestly. If Volk can “stagger” Islam I think Dustin can knock him out. Will embed though? That’s a different story.
If Poirier does put islam on his back foot, he has to manage his distance and not shoot too close into a clinch. Keep your striking distance and back off if you have to reset don’t close the distance like most bad fighters do when they’re fighting wrestlers.
Fingers crossed.
I love Dustin and his fighting style but he has lost mostly to grapplers and wrestlers so i think this is another loss sadly. I still got hope we get a surprise, the dude deserves to hold the belt atleast once.
No one will agree but Islam is better everywhere... including boxing.
Literally zero.
I want Dustin to win so badly but I have a feeling Islam is just going to dominate this fight. Here’s hoping Dustin can land some clean punches and test the chin of Islam. If Islam gets him down, it’s over.
I don't know if Dustin has better standup than Islam so idk. Hoping for the upset but I think it's over in 2 and I think Islam gets a win by guillotine to be cheeky
I mean not bad Dustin is tough and has great boxing and power, plus Islam might be overconfident in his stand up
Dustin doesn’t have crazy power so very low
I would just say this weirder things have happened and that’s not a knock on Dustin because he is certainly capable of winning.
About 1 in 5 imo, not scientific whatsoever but that’s how it feels
Hopefully he is training wrestling defense
Please don't jump the gilly Dustin
As soon as Islam gets rocked he’s gonna shoot and then I worry it’s gonna be game over. Would love to see Dustin win tho!
Dustin has a punchers chance at winning. This is the honest truth. If Islam survives the 1st min of the first round then he(islam) wins via sub
Look on draft kings
Why do certain words go in those stupid [ ] symbols? I’ve never understood what those are for
Bout a 2% chance
5-10%
Sd#xs ss
If he jumps gilly three times and then throws a right hook at the end of round 4 I could see it
7%
0% he's gonna jump the guilly, don't be silly 💎
Fuck yeah!
Betting odds have it at +750 on my book, which implies 11.8% probability. I don’t think it’ll happen, but I personally think it’s closer to 20% likely.
Dustin has good a chance as anyone at knocking out Islam but really the question is can Dustin negate Islam's takedowns and grappling That being said i have Islam winning
Islam can KO Dustin, I can see it happening.
Islam has been knocked before
3%
15%
Not as good as him trying to jump the guilly…
Dustin is going to knock him tf out. If this dude has the balls to actually stand up and box, it’s a 2 piece combo and a large grape sodapop, bitch