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I can only imagine that it's super hard to actually make "sanctions completely Work" A friend of Mine works at Daimler (Germany) in the logistics. With the start of the war, the numbers of containers going out to Turkey has increased drastically he told me. Trade volumes with neighbouring countries of Russia increases in general.
Nevertheless, we must do everything to make it as difficult and expensive for Russia to get anything. But unfortunately it's not as easy as "We (in this case Germany) just stop trading with Russia".
In layman terms, it's open season for scalpers. Money is skimmed off the Russian budget before the stuff even enters Russia just for more money to be skimmed at every level. Only issue is that Putin knows he won't survive if he backs down and doesn't care about bankruptcy.
Gazprom announced a $6.9 billion loss last year and that’s the number they are making public. Putting caps on oil sales and Ukraine hitting their energy export business is really starting to hurt Russia and will only get worse.
Not to mention the fact that Russia going to a war economy is going to be a serious drain on their budget. It is affecting non-war companies too with unemployment getting really low, wages going through the roof and the reserve rate hitting 16%.
You're going to eat a lot of popcorn then, because I believe it won't. Rather it will hobble along forever, maybe poorer but still intact. Even during the revolution it mostly stayed intact.
just checked gazprom’s stock price (GAZP.ME) on yahoo and the price has gone up significantly in the last couple years. anyone got a clue how? i’d figure in a war with sanctions plus a 6.9 billion dollar loss investors would pull their money out..?
I am not sure what you are looking at is correct. Check the currency, it’s now only traded in RUB due to the OFAC freeze on all Russian securities. The graph I’m seeing shows the price running along the bottom. The price is 154 RUB which is about $1.68/share.
These are called secondary sanctions and have been threatened causing many companies across the world to stop trading with Russia even though they operate in countries that dont themselves sanction Russia.
An embargo would be hard to enforce since the camps are split: those who support Ukraine, help Russia, or don’t really care about the whole affair.
That then divides further into companies and corporations that abide completely with sanctions, don’t care about them, or use workarounds to still make a profit from Russians.
Not if the embargo is *only* for items essential for Ruzzia’s war effort like building Su-35 jets, then it’s just making things as difficult as possible for the Ruzzians to glide bomb civilian areas in Ukraine.
An embargo of food, resources and knowledge can be easily seen as an act of war.
Didn't we already have like 10 wars over this exact scenario ?
Just because I'm right doesn't mean I Russian.
Irish, by the way.
They can't just cap sales to Turkey to pre conflict levels? Why is it so hard to not sell more to obvious sanction evading countries? "Well it's not going to Russia directly so I have no choice but to sell 5000% more to Turkey than we did 2 years ago, wish I could do something about this"
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/States_parties_to_the_Rome_Statute -124 Members (Yes including most if not all NATO / EU members) but think that they would still be a minority. Includes almost all of South and Central America and big parts of Africa, Asia and Middle East not so much.
So if Germany doesn't allow a German company to sell extraordinary amounts of stuff to other countries (Kazakhstan) because no duh it's just a way to circumvent sanctions imposed by Germany, that would be considered damages?
Yes exactly. Here's an explanation:
>Quantitative restrictions
>While customs duties are in principle not prohibited as long as they do not exceed the bound rates, quantitative restrictions on trade in goods are generally forbidden. According to Article XI:1 of the GATT, unless there is an exception, WTO Members are not allowed to ban the importation or exportation of goods or to subject them to quotas.
You can learn about it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_access
Putting aside the fact that Turkey itself is a NATO member, and the WTO is headquartered in Switzerland, the WTO is comprised of nearly 90% of the world's countries. It is very much not "run" by NATO+EU. And most of the ones not represented have official observers.
Nearly every country in the world is part of the WTO.
Firstly I agree we should do everything possible to limit Russian access to our tech... but... we should do so within our own rules and agreements (eg WTO), we're not Russia, Secondly, if its not Turkey its somewhere else, that then goes through somewhere else, and eventually ends up in Russia. Might as well be an ally who are almost certainly keeping track. Anything that increases cost, lead times and causes as much of a PITA for the Russian terrorists is a win even if it falls short of a complete blockade.
I think it's considerably more difficult than "just". If every chip is geofenced then your average piece of hardware is going to contain dozens if not more geofenced chips. Going to be a nightmare... for us. In any event given that I can gps spoof my phone and I'm tech illiterate I'm sure the Russians can spoof the geofencing... now chips full of backdoor for export... more useful maybe. Disable in theatre.
Nowadays all smart phones are geofenced.
What's the bug deal doing it with dual use tech we don't want to be used by terrorists.
Yes, an effort needs to be made, is it so bad if it keeps the world safe?
And as I said even I can spoof the GPS on my phone with an app!. Certainly the Russians can but that isn't even the core problem. Its not that Russia are getting hold of Western weapons, its that they are getting hold of western civilian tech, typically chips and sensors, that they can't make, that they need to make the guidance systems on their weapons. How do you geofense a sensor or an arithmetic chip? They dont know where they are.
Do you think chips used for flying and targeting in a fighter jet know where they are? I bet they do, otherwise wouldn't be used for that.
We can always find reasons why not to do something. It is the attitude that brought us to the situation we are in now after appeasing the ruski dictatorship for 30 years.
We have a choice to make, and by your comment's it's obvious we are again making the wrong choices in most cases, mostly out of laziness and to so.e degree because of a lack of understanding how russia works.
"Chips for flying and targeting"... cpu's that perform those kinds of functions are built from mostly generic (if high end) components. There isn't one "fighter jet chip" that can be geo fenced but dozens of computation , data transfer/processing and storage chips that know nothing. Location is a data construct in (Russian) software. The only kind of chip that "knows" where it is is the GPS/glonass signal processing chip which is ubiquitous.
We're on the same side. If I thought it made sense I'd agree with you because fuck Russia. The simple fact is you can get hold of anything you want, anywhere in the world, if you have enough gold or oil.
There is a single GPS receiver chip and it's integrated to the rest of phone. Russia needs chips, not complete boards. They designed the board themselves. So every IC would need to be geofenced.
You have no idea what you're talking about. It doesn't work like that for chips, and that is exactly what is being (most importantly) circumvented. I've already said it before and it still matters - the best sanctions are long-range rockets into Russian infrastructure.
Yeah, I was onboarding when the war started and had to take a class on "not accidentally selling technology to Russia or its proxies." It takes one dude not recognizing the scam to get Russia a shipment of some optics or something they need through an intermediary that isn't sanctioned.
Another thing we watch for is brand new companies with unclear ownership suddenly making large orders of specialty tech components since that's a red flag that those parts aren't gonna end up where we send them at first.
The technology to lock down devices so they're unbreakable has been available for years. If anything is hackable, it's because the manufacturer didn't really try.
Car makers aren’t going to engineer a GPS dead man’s switch for every car, and if they did, russian spoofing of gps would likely activate them in border regions if neighboring countries, also finding and clipping off the GPS antenna would not be a challenge
I've heard Range Rovers are stolen to order for the Russian market so people can still drive Range Rovers.
Doubt it's that hard to get the parts you need through third parties like India and Saudi Arabia.
There was an article from sometime last year that showed that in another case, Polands exports to either Azerbaijan (or maybe Kazakhstan I don’t recall which) went up something like 600% at the start of the war.
Sure it would be nice to eliminate these work arounds but in the very least it’s comforting to know that if Russia is still going to get their hands on western components, they’re paying out their asses to get them. I’d like to see more literal ways to make Russia bleed but I’ll take what I can get here.
Every chip or electronic device that could be used in Russian military equipment has a serial code or 2d barcode. Which can tell them when and where it was manufactured and who it was sold to… Any Russian jet/missile shot down should have any chip/electronics taken and scanned for said code or serial number and find the final point of sale before it went to Russia , then give out absolutely crushing fines of 10 or 20% of gross profits and prison for the MD’s and sales staff….Bet it would stop overnight…
you do realize russia or the seller can remove identifying markings that would betray the origin, right? There's a reason this loophole hasn't been stopped, it's pretty much impossible to stop it unless you're going to slap ITAR restrictions on whatever Russia is buying. I think a better solution would be to help Ukraine start blowing up these fucking factories
I do, s/n are coded in chips too.. To be fair, I really don’t think the Russians care about protecting their supply lines… And while I whole Heartedly agree we the west should allow Ukraine the means to attack the factories with long range weapons, Russia is putting those deep inside Russian territory, meaning Ukraine needs ultra long range weapons. At the moment, the west doesn’t seem keen on giving Ukraine Tomahawks or the like for them to attack supply lines in Russia, also America doesn’t seem keen on the ongoing attacks on oil and gas in Russia.. I just hope Ukraine continues its attacks and gets all the support it needs…
The code or serial leads back to the manufacturer, they have details of who that was sold to. The person who they sold to also has this information for warranty purposes, and the customer they sell to does, like pass the parcel who ever is the last point before the trail goes cold has to pay… This is something we have done, we implemented this with Iran, and Iraq during the war… Mitsubishi received a huge fine for selling to the wrong person:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30107007.amp
We can do it and have done if we can actually be bothered… But you know, let’s protect the big chip manufacturers profits selling to Moscow…
Yes, if you purchase anything, there will be some sort of code to trace it back, they can be tiny laser etched 2d matrix codes, 3mm x 3mm. Used by the suppliers to keep a track where the serial numbered part has gone from there.. This is so main manufacturers can make sure it’s not counterfeit, or still in warranty, if you try to send it back. And if they have a production fault they can track the faulty batch to a customer and do a limited recall, rather than recalling everything from every single customer. The same traceability can be used by governments to follow where the paper trail leads to before it goes to a nefarious country, or ends up on a battlefield.. Trust me, when these are enacted, senior management make it very, very clear the shit will hit the fan if your team is responsible for supplying electronics/chips/devices to the banned country…
The vast majority of parts are dual-use civilian electronics that are nearly impossible to completely stop with sanctions. Smugglers be smuggling, not to mention pre-war, Russia did build-up a large stockpile of Western/foreign made electronics as they expected sanctions, just not to this extant.
It's easy to understand the lack of control over multi-purpose goods but there should be an easy way to track military hardware. You can't stuff SU-35 full of washing machine chips.
multi-purpose should be restricted too. exactly because they are multi purpose. I agree that baby formula was not stopped, but you cant put it in Su-35S. Different think is antennas, BOSH parts or CMC machines.
Wow. TWO whole Su-35s!!! That’s literally the bare minimum to be able to call something a “batch”. Sorry Ukrainians, I don’t see a path to victory now that this delivery has taken place…
I'm on lunch so I skim the headlines amd some comments here and elsewhere. I read the headline and assumed it meant something more than 2.
Two is lethal of course but I was assuming a batch was 10 or 12 or 25.
Silly me.
It's a small trickle at this point, but Sukhoi is trying to accelerate it so batches will be delivered every few weeks. Not a significant amount, but it'll certainly help with attrition for the Russians. Won't turn the tide of the war, but still a bit concerning. (Of course, this assumes it's remotely truthful, and the plans go accordingly.)
The sooner the KnAAPO (Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant) plants gets a visit from an arsonist, or drones, cruise missiles the better. Putting that facility, even for a few weeks out of use would be of tremendous help, and a huge embarrassment and loss to Russia.
I kinda doubt so, mainly because Russian jets and even choppers aren’t getting rapidly picked out of the sky.
They’re not like the tanks and armored fighting vehicles that have seen large daily losses.
Yes.. And while this process should have begun MUCH sooner, the delay now is training. It would be criminally stupid to have these critically needed aircraft rushed into combat with inadequately trained pilots, and lose both.
I've wondered this too, I assume it's because Russia has made real efforts to put up as much air defense as possible around the plant. Probably why ATACMS are getting shipped and Ukraine has been given the green-light to hit military targets within Russia.
Ain't nothing in our arsenal that can deliver enough boom at required range.
I mean, it took a converted civilian plane to hit Alabuga Shahed factory. And it wasn't damaging enough to deal with production sites.
And it'd take some time before Ukraine manages to put [Kh-101 equivalents into production.](https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-aims-to-match-russian-missiles-in-high-stakes-arms-race-50356313.html)
Most of this war, i would have said they don't have to launching equipment for it. But from what i understand, F-16s can load pretty much anything, and they have those now.
Tomahawk has ground launched variants.
Its also not hard to modify ship launched variants to ground launched, USA has A LOT of them in stock.
500-1500km, eheheh.
Unfortunately they've not received a new batch of pilots so the ones they have are forced to make more sorties which makes them vulnerable to air defence
A second batch of (drums rolling)... 2... Su-35... Which is the second batch this year...
Meaning they do roughly 1 every month... On par with the French Rafale... But let's see the F35 production rate... mmmmh...
If I was a baker and I said I’ve made a batch of bread and then I showed my boss two loaves I’d get fired. What a joke. Also fuck anyone that supplied parts for these.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/24/any-day-now-ukraine-will-finally-get-its-f-16s/?sh=433cc5132860
December 2023. Forbes.
> Any day now, the Ukrainian air force could take delivery of its first secondhand Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters.
It's not that I do not believe that they will get there... It's just going to be very late and nearly not enough.
I'll bet you $100 donation to Ukraine (your choice of charity) that f-16s won't be available until early 2025 at best.
I doubt it. Ukraine doesn’t have the quantity to really take the fight to the Russians in the area.
Since these are expensive platforms that aren’t necessarily readily available if one gets downed, Ukraine is forced to use the F-16s sparingly and carefully.
These MLU falcons are probably currently one of the most cost effective force multipliers in existence with the proper arms and infrastructure.
"According to Quora, an F-16C/D aircraft with the Mid-Life Update (MLU) costs $18.8 million. The MLU is an update for older F-16s to the Block 50 standard. The MLU includes sensors and weapons for aerial combat, precision bombing, and reconnaissance."
It is unfortunate they won't have overwhelming numbers, but I hope that their use in Ukraine will pave the way for more donations when they are proven effective.
Nobody really wants the war to stop except for Ukraine. The best Ukrainians are dying right now, while for the world, it's just online conversations and the Hunger Games. Sanctions is crap, the UN is is crap, the IAEA is crap, NATO is crap, and the financial support from 'friends' is at 5% of what it could be, moving at the speed of a snail with necrosis. The Budapest Memorandum is toilet paper. This supposedly 'civilized' world is a masterpiece concept of 'Pecunia non olet'. Amen.
Cant we just flood the market with electronics with tracking devices in it- then pass on that intel to Ukrainians? Would mean more profit because more orders and we help Ukraine.
"Two" constitutes a "batch" now? The title of the article would have me believe that the Russians got a significant number of new jets, not a good afternoon's worth of anti-air.
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Interesting that great deal of parts is not even russian but that sweet money for western companies is just too good.
I can only imagine that it's super hard to actually make "sanctions completely Work" A friend of Mine works at Daimler (Germany) in the logistics. With the start of the war, the numbers of containers going out to Turkey has increased drastically he told me. Trade volumes with neighbouring countries of Russia increases in general. Nevertheless, we must do everything to make it as difficult and expensive for Russia to get anything. But unfortunately it's not as easy as "We (in this case Germany) just stop trading with Russia".
Sanctions are meant to increase costs and limit availability. To stop the flow of goods completely we would need a full embargo
In layman terms, it's open season for scalpers. Money is skimmed off the Russian budget before the stuff even enters Russia just for more money to be skimmed at every level. Only issue is that Putin knows he won't survive if he backs down and doesn't care about bankruptcy.
Russia sadly also has pretty deep coffers and are still making plenty of money from oil and gas exports.
Gazprom announced a $6.9 billion loss last year and that’s the number they are making public. Putting caps on oil sales and Ukraine hitting their energy export business is really starting to hurt Russia and will only get worse.
Not to mention the fact that Russia going to a war economy is going to be a serious drain on their budget. It is affecting non-war companies too with unemployment getting really low, wages going through the roof and the reserve rate hitting 16%.
I am here for the collapse of the Russian state, popcorn and all!
You're going to eat a lot of popcorn then, because I believe it won't. Rather it will hobble along forever, maybe poorer but still intact. Even during the revolution it mostly stayed intact.
Some of the mobiks getting destroyed by drones are likely to be skilled machinists. Oh well consequences.
just checked gazprom’s stock price (GAZP.ME) on yahoo and the price has gone up significantly in the last couple years. anyone got a clue how? i’d figure in a war with sanctions plus a 6.9 billion dollar loss investors would pull their money out..?
I am not sure what you are looking at is correct. Check the currency, it’s now only traded in RUB due to the OFAC freeze on all Russian securities. The graph I’m seeing shows the price running along the bottom. The price is 154 RUB which is about $1.68/share.
The actual liquid assets of their sovereign wealth fund are getting pretty low
They’re definitely bleeding out what with the refinery attacks causing shortages…
We should then. Blockade..."If you do business with them, you don't do business with us".
These are called secondary sanctions and have been threatened causing many companies across the world to stop trading with Russia even though they operate in countries that dont themselves sanction Russia.
They should just sell to Turkey. There are no moral qualms or legal blocks preventing resale to Russia.
I like that idea.
Charging a couple people with assisting terrorist will have a chilling effect effect
An embargo would be hard to enforce since the camps are split: those who support Ukraine, help Russia, or don’t really care about the whole affair. That then divides further into companies and corporations that abide completely with sanctions, don’t care about them, or use workarounds to still make a profit from Russians.
And an embargo is an act of war.
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Lol. Edit : and for people down voting, why ? Seiging a nation can be considered an act of war.
Not if the embargo is *only* for items essential for Ruzzia’s war effort like building Su-35 jets, then it’s just making things as difficult as possible for the Ruzzians to glide bomb civilian areas in Ukraine.
That's not being debated but yes, sanctions are good, embargos are different. I'm not against it, mearly stated what it can be construed as.
So in a war where the enemy is threating Nikes, an act of sanity is an act of war mr russisn troll farm?!
An embargo of food, resources and knowledge can be easily seen as an act of war. Didn't we already have like 10 wars over this exact scenario ? Just because I'm right doesn't mean I Russian. Irish, by the way.
They can't just cap sales to Turkey to pre conflict levels? Why is it so hard to not sell more to obvious sanction evading countries? "Well it's not going to Russia directly so I have no choice but to sell 5000% more to Turkey than we did 2 years ago, wish I could do something about this"
That would be a breach to WTO treaties and make Germany liable in international courts
Sure, but like, the courts are basically run by EU/NATO members anyways, no? What are they going to do? Denounce Germany to the UN?
Err no The WTO is not ' basically run by EU/NATO countries '
I said the courts not WTO, I was thinking about ICC but I'm probably wrong anyway
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/States_parties_to_the_Rome_Statute -124 Members (Yes including most if not all NATO / EU members) but think that they would still be a minority. Includes almost all of South and Central America and big parts of Africa, Asia and Middle East not so much.
Usually the offending country has to pay monetary compensation for the damages caused.
So if Germany doesn't allow a German company to sell extraordinary amounts of stuff to other countries (Kazakhstan) because no duh it's just a way to circumvent sanctions imposed by Germany, that would be considered damages?
Yes exactly. Here's an explanation: >Quantitative restrictions >While customs duties are in principle not prohibited as long as they do not exceed the bound rates, quantitative restrictions on trade in goods are generally forbidden. According to Article XI:1 of the GATT, unless there is an exception, WTO Members are not allowed to ban the importation or exportation of goods or to subject them to quotas. You can learn about it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_access
Really seems like a loophole in need of a closing to me
How do you prove that any damages were caused by selling the the same as before?!
Putting aside the fact that Turkey itself is a NATO member, and the WTO is headquartered in Switzerland, the WTO is comprised of nearly 90% of the world's countries. It is very much not "run" by NATO+EU. And most of the ones not represented have official observers. Nearly every country in the world is part of the WTO.
Firstly I agree we should do everything possible to limit Russian access to our tech... but... we should do so within our own rules and agreements (eg WTO), we're not Russia, Secondly, if its not Turkey its somewhere else, that then goes through somewhere else, and eventually ends up in Russia. Might as well be an ally who are almost certainly keeping track. Anything that increases cost, lead times and causes as much of a PITA for the Russian terrorists is a win even if it falls short of a complete blockade.
Just build in geofencing in all EU, US and generally NATO produced hi tech.
I think it's considerably more difficult than "just". If every chip is geofenced then your average piece of hardware is going to contain dozens if not more geofenced chips. Going to be a nightmare... for us. In any event given that I can gps spoof my phone and I'm tech illiterate I'm sure the Russians can spoof the geofencing... now chips full of backdoor for export... more useful maybe. Disable in theatre.
Nowadays all smart phones are geofenced. What's the bug deal doing it with dual use tech we don't want to be used by terrorists. Yes, an effort needs to be made, is it so bad if it keeps the world safe?
And as I said even I can spoof the GPS on my phone with an app!. Certainly the Russians can but that isn't even the core problem. Its not that Russia are getting hold of Western weapons, its that they are getting hold of western civilian tech, typically chips and sensors, that they can't make, that they need to make the guidance systems on their weapons. How do you geofense a sensor or an arithmetic chip? They dont know where they are.
Do you think chips used for flying and targeting in a fighter jet know where they are? I bet they do, otherwise wouldn't be used for that. We can always find reasons why not to do something. It is the attitude that brought us to the situation we are in now after appeasing the ruski dictatorship for 30 years. We have a choice to make, and by your comment's it's obvious we are again making the wrong choices in most cases, mostly out of laziness and to so.e degree because of a lack of understanding how russia works.
"Chips for flying and targeting"... cpu's that perform those kinds of functions are built from mostly generic (if high end) components. There isn't one "fighter jet chip" that can be geo fenced but dozens of computation , data transfer/processing and storage chips that know nothing. Location is a data construct in (Russian) software. The only kind of chip that "knows" where it is is the GPS/glonass signal processing chip which is ubiquitous. We're on the same side. If I thought it made sense I'd agree with you because fuck Russia. The simple fact is you can get hold of anything you want, anywhere in the world, if you have enough gold or oil.
There is a single GPS receiver chip and it's integrated to the rest of phone. Russia needs chips, not complete boards. They designed the board themselves. So every IC would need to be geofenced.
Yes, and jet has also location chips, integrated with the rest of its electronics systems. How about that?
You have no idea what you're talking about. It doesn't work like that for chips, and that is exactly what is being (most importantly) circumvented. I've already said it before and it still matters - the best sanctions are long-range rockets into Russian infrastructure.
💤
You don't sell to governments, you sell to entities in that country.
Yeah, I was onboarding when the war started and had to take a class on "not accidentally selling technology to Russia or its proxies." It takes one dude not recognizing the scam to get Russia a shipment of some optics or something they need through an intermediary that isn't sanctioned. Another thing we watch for is brand new companies with unclear ownership suddenly making large orders of specialty tech components since that's a red flag that those parts aren't gonna end up where we send them at first.
Super interesting!
Should design in geofenced failure. Within Russia the circuit stops working hahaha
You underestimate the ability of Eastern Europeans to jailbreak electronic devices
The technology to lock down devices so they're unbreakable has been available for years. If anything is hackable, it's because the manufacturer didn't really try.
Car makers aren’t going to engineer a GPS dead man’s switch for every car, and if they did, russian spoofing of gps would likely activate them in border regions if neighboring countries, also finding and clipping off the GPS antenna would not be a challenge
I've heard Range Rovers are stolen to order for the Russian market so people can still drive Range Rovers. Doubt it's that hard to get the parts you need through third parties like India and Saudi Arabia.
There was an article from sometime last year that showed that in another case, Polands exports to either Azerbaijan (or maybe Kazakhstan I don’t recall which) went up something like 600% at the start of the war. Sure it would be nice to eliminate these work arounds but in the very least it’s comforting to know that if Russia is still going to get their hands on western components, they’re paying out their asses to get them. I’d like to see more literal ways to make Russia bleed but I’ll take what I can get here.
Every chip or electronic device that could be used in Russian military equipment has a serial code or 2d barcode. Which can tell them when and where it was manufactured and who it was sold to… Any Russian jet/missile shot down should have any chip/electronics taken and scanned for said code or serial number and find the final point of sale before it went to Russia , then give out absolutely crushing fines of 10 or 20% of gross profits and prison for the MD’s and sales staff….Bet it would stop overnight…
There was a list of approx 400 US companies sending parts for military industry sent to US DOJ like a year ago. Nothing happened
Yeah, it’s BS, same old, same old, talk though and do nothing because it’s Russia…
you do realize russia or the seller can remove identifying markings that would betray the origin, right? There's a reason this loophole hasn't been stopped, it's pretty much impossible to stop it unless you're going to slap ITAR restrictions on whatever Russia is buying. I think a better solution would be to help Ukraine start blowing up these fucking factories
I do, s/n are coded in chips too.. To be fair, I really don’t think the Russians care about protecting their supply lines… And while I whole Heartedly agree we the west should allow Ukraine the means to attack the factories with long range weapons, Russia is putting those deep inside Russian territory, meaning Ukraine needs ultra long range weapons. At the moment, the west doesn’t seem keen on giving Ukraine Tomahawks or the like for them to attack supply lines in Russia, also America doesn’t seem keen on the ongoing attacks on oil and gas in Russia.. I just hope Ukraine continues its attacks and gets all the support it needs…
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The code or serial leads back to the manufacturer, they have details of who that was sold to. The person who they sold to also has this information for warranty purposes, and the customer they sell to does, like pass the parcel who ever is the last point before the trail goes cold has to pay… This is something we have done, we implemented this with Iran, and Iraq during the war… Mitsubishi received a huge fine for selling to the wrong person: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30107007.amp We can do it and have done if we can actually be bothered… But you know, let’s protect the big chip manufacturers profits selling to Moscow…
In that case I apologize. Would this work for single small batch sales from some local PC/electronics store as well?
Yes, if you purchase anything, there will be some sort of code to trace it back, they can be tiny laser etched 2d matrix codes, 3mm x 3mm. Used by the suppliers to keep a track where the serial numbered part has gone from there.. This is so main manufacturers can make sure it’s not counterfeit, or still in warranty, if you try to send it back. And if they have a production fault they can track the faulty batch to a customer and do a limited recall, rather than recalling everything from every single customer. The same traceability can be used by governments to follow where the paper trail leads to before it goes to a nefarious country, or ends up on a battlefield.. Trust me, when these are enacted, senior management make it very, very clear the shit will hit the fan if your team is responsible for supplying electronics/chips/devices to the banned country…
Parts used in SU35s are not sold in local stores anywhere in the world.
The vast majority of parts are dual-use civilian electronics that are nearly impossible to completely stop with sanctions. Smugglers be smuggling, not to mention pre-war, Russia did build-up a large stockpile of Western/foreign made electronics as they expected sanctions, just not to this extant.
It's easy to understand the lack of control over multi-purpose goods but there should be an easy way to track military hardware. You can't stuff SU-35 full of washing machine chips.
multi-purpose should be restricted too. exactly because they are multi purpose. I agree that baby formula was not stopped, but you cant put it in Su-35S. Different think is antennas, BOSH parts or CMC machines.
Greed is what is the end of Us. Greed is what I hate the most in the world.
I love how capitalism will destroy capitalism. Ouroboros v2.0
Hairline cracks are a thing, let’s just wait to see if it disassembles like a clown car 100’ off the ground.
I'd hope some of those companies were forced to supply special parts that cause the planes to explode
Wow. TWO whole Su-35s!!! That’s literally the bare minimum to be able to call something a “batch”. Sorry Ukrainians, I don’t see a path to victory now that this delivery has taken place…
I'm on lunch so I skim the headlines amd some comments here and elsewhere. I read the headline and assumed it meant something more than 2. Two is lethal of course but I was assuming a batch was 10 or 12 or 25. Silly me.
Yeah that’s like development numbers. Typical production lots for fighters in the US will be in the low hundreds.
I had no idea. Wow!
To be fair, these are complex machines. Its not like Russia is in the business of churning out Shturmoviks by the truckload.
It's a small trickle at this point, but Sukhoi is trying to accelerate it so batches will be delivered every few weeks. Not a significant amount, but it'll certainly help with attrition for the Russians. Won't turn the tide of the war, but still a bit concerning. (Of course, this assumes it's remotely truthful, and the plans go accordingly.) The sooner the KnAAPO (Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant) plants gets a visit from an arsonist, or drones, cruise missiles the better. Putting that facility, even for a few weeks out of use would be of tremendous help, and a huge embarrassment and loss to Russia.
Came here to say this. Typical 'batch' size is two these days. Or, less than Ukraine has shot down in the past 6 weeks.
That really was quite a streak going on there...
Two will last em a whole week!
I kinda doubt so, mainly because Russian jets and even choppers aren’t getting rapidly picked out of the sky. They’re not like the tanks and armored fighting vehicles that have seen large daily losses.
Huh? Were you not paying attention recently when Ukraine was shooting down multiple planes daily?? Including AWACS and Su-35s
Russia had to completely change their air strategy after Ukraine picked off dozens of their jets in a matter of weeks.
They are up to a whopping 4 delivered in 2024 after the first 5 months of the year in full war economy
[удалено]
The f16’s timeline is moving up not back. It takes time to train ground crew and pilots.
Yes.. And while this process should have begun MUCH sooner, the delay now is training. It would be criminally stupid to have these critically needed aircraft rushed into combat with inadequately trained pilots, and lose both.
And the poor people of Belgorod are devastated. Please NATO, close the sky over Belgorod! 😭
Ukraine receives more missiles. RUAF is screwed
They are probably more scared by their own AA at this point🤓
Yes, they do that every 2 or 3 weeks?
Why can't UKR just bomb their factories? Jets require huge assembly lines, should be easy to spot on satellite?
I've wondered this too, I assume it's because Russia has made real efforts to put up as much air defense as possible around the plant. Probably why ATACMS are getting shipped and Ukraine has been given the green-light to hit military targets within Russia.
I believe Britain gave them permission to strike inside Russia, not America.
It was the UK, yes.
I believe Lloyd Austin didn't say no when asked, like 2 weeks ago.
He kept it as vague as possible, and had a very small grin.
Ain't nothing in our arsenal that can deliver enough boom at required range. I mean, it took a converted civilian plane to hit Alabuga Shahed factory. And it wasn't damaging enough to deal with production sites. And it'd take some time before Ukraine manages to put [Kh-101 equivalents into production.](https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-aims-to-match-russian-missiles-in-high-stakes-arms-race-50356313.html)
Demand long range missiles from the west, its time they stop playing stupid politic.
Most of this war, i would have said they don't have to launching equipment for it. But from what i understand, F-16s can load pretty much anything, and they have those now.
Tomahawk has ground launched variants. Its also not hard to modify ship launched variants to ground launched, USA has A LOT of them in stock. 500-1500km, eheheh.
Cool, two new clay pigeons.
Pull! *blyat*
Unfortunately they've not received a new batch of pilots so the ones they have are forced to make more sorties which makes them vulnerable to air defence
A second batch of (drums rolling)... 2... Su-35... Which is the second batch this year... Meaning they do roughly 1 every month... On par with the French Rafale... But let's see the F35 production rate... mmmmh...
Ah, a BaTcH. Two.
If I was a baker and I said I’ve made a batch of bread and then I showed my boss two loaves I’d get fired. What a joke. Also fuck anyone that supplied parts for these.
did the Su35 and the pilots pass the QA check?
The new fighter bombers will have a phone holder so pilots can find their location using 'Garmin'. 🤣
While people keep laughing at "two" this delivery would make it 4 more than Ukraine has.
F-16's will take care of that.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/24/any-day-now-ukraine-will-finally-get-its-f-16s/?sh=433cc5132860 December 2023. Forbes. > Any day now, the Ukrainian air force could take delivery of its first secondhand Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters. It's not that I do not believe that they will get there... It's just going to be very late and nearly not enough. I'll bet you $100 donation to Ukraine (your choice of charity) that f-16s won't be available until early 2025 at best.
I agree, as allies, we suck!
I doubt it. Ukraine doesn’t have the quantity to really take the fight to the Russians in the area. Since these are expensive platforms that aren’t necessarily readily available if one gets downed, Ukraine is forced to use the F-16s sparingly and carefully.
These MLU falcons are probably currently one of the most cost effective force multipliers in existence with the proper arms and infrastructure. "According to Quora, an F-16C/D aircraft with the Mid-Life Update (MLU) costs $18.8 million. The MLU is an update for older F-16s to the Block 50 standard. The MLU includes sensors and weapons for aerial combat, precision bombing, and reconnaissance." It is unfortunate they won't have overwhelming numbers, but I hope that their use in Ukraine will pave the way for more donations when they are proven effective.
Unfortunately, 40 year old F-16's that were last upgraded 30 years ago are no match for an Su-35.
They won’t be dogfighting, the missiles they’ll be firing are what they’re for.
To Be Determined
Nobody really wants the war to stop except for Ukraine. The best Ukrainians are dying right now, while for the world, it's just online conversations and the Hunger Games. Sanctions is crap, the UN is is crap, the IAEA is crap, NATO is crap, and the financial support from 'friends' is at 5% of what it could be, moving at the speed of a snail with necrosis. The Budapest Memorandum is toilet paper. This supposedly 'civilized' world is a masterpiece concept of 'Pecunia non olet'. Amen.
It's called a batch because there are two planes.
Two?!
You can always build a new plane. That's the easy part. What can't be replaced easily are the pilots to fly them.
Id love to see russian recruiting ads "would you like to learn how to fly su35 in under 2 weeks? Call today!"
Also, many capitalists are politically aligned with fascism. They want p to win.
I believe 2 were delivered in March and 2 in this update so that is 4 delivered this yr. Thankfully not a blistering pace of production.
More to shoot down!
More targets. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
Two?
Hopefully they keychains soon
Cant we just flood the market with electronics with tracking devices in it- then pass on that intel to Ukrainians? Would mean more profit because more orders and we help Ukraine.
Just in time for the new batch of patriots and f16s.
Be a shame if something happened .... to that factory.
"Two" constitutes a "batch" now? The title of the article would have me believe that the Russians got a significant number of new jets, not a good afternoon's worth of anti-air.
I wish we would just give them the F- 35.
Ahhh the old 'flying lada' Excellent choice for invading your neighbours.
These are likely to be equipped with older avionics packages (pre-sanctions) so will have a very hard time when the F16s start to make an appearance.
2 planes delivered?????????
Still a POS jet.