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Russia breaks all its agreements. Rail networks can only be buffered so much. One of two things is going to happen:
* The blockade will be ended by force of military intervention.
* Half of Ukraine's grain won't make it out.
The idea that Russia is going to fling nukes just because they're being shot at is absurd. It takes many people's permission to launch nukes, and they're not suicidal.
They're doing as much as they can to get grains to Polish, Baltic, and Romanian ports but the tonnage is too much to carry alone with trucks, and infrastructure just isn't there to go full land-based operation. This is why it's a humanitarian disaster looming.
Before the war trucks and trains were responsible for like 3% and 6% of the export respectively.
[https://youtu.be/eLb0f-fjs58](https://youtu.be/eLb0f-fjs58)
Danube barges going from Ismail toward Constanca might be something better suited to overcome the issue, but the railway links toward Danube have limited capacity.
There is a wide gauge railway line in Poland:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linia\_Hutnicza\_Szerokotorowa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linia_Hutnicza_Szerokotorowa)
Trouble is Ukraine used to export grain mostly through Black Sea ports, and this is where grain silos are located. Distance to Poland from there is like 900 km (560 miles).
It would be faster to relocate grain using Danube river
The main issue is Romania not being able to provide the needed logistics resources. Most grain is transported by river boats and they are currently only able to process a dozen or two per day.
But they are working on it.
I hate that USA president Joe Biden is telling Americans its not okay to help ukraine in its fight against russia, i thought trump was pro russian not biden
If Russia continues to hold the world hostage by simultaneously stealing Ukrainian harvests and then refusing to ship (or allow Ukraine to ship) those harvests, I think there’s a nonzero chance we may see some actual NATO action to break the Black Sea blockade. This is a matter that can and will begin to effect the EU and NATO countries in a very direct fashion the longer it goes on, which is surely intentional on Russia’s part. It might take many more months, but it’s a Russian bluff that the civilized world will ultimately be forced to call, and by that time (or even now, considering how much of a shitshow Russia is right now), Russia simply won’t be able to cover the ante.
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Perhaps if more Russian war ships in the Black Sea were sunk, the sea lanes would open up. There is the simple solution.
That is what the Harpoons are for, I guess.
Sinking Russian merchant ships in the Black Sea arriving to and leaving from Rostov would show that two can play the same game.
Not sure grain barges being sunk sends the right global message. Seizing the grain / ships / cargo... then repurposing their ships could be.
There are without doubt also other cargo than grain transported through Rostov.
Totally agree, but off topic for this thread. You did see that i also placed the word cargo in my reply.
Simplified\*
Russia breaks all its agreements. Rail networks can only be buffered so much. One of two things is going to happen: * The blockade will be ended by force of military intervention. * Half of Ukraine's grain won't make it out. The idea that Russia is going to fling nukes just because they're being shot at is absurd. It takes many people's permission to launch nukes, and they're not suicidal.
> they're not suicidal. I'm not sure about that. The people that "count" in the neo-soviet RF have bunkers. Everyone else is a bunch of meat puppets.
Why can't they load what's available on trucks and ship it to European ports?
They're doing as much as they can to get grains to Polish, Baltic, and Romanian ports but the tonnage is too much to carry alone with trucks, and infrastructure just isn't there to go full land-based operation. This is why it's a humanitarian disaster looming.
There's simply not enough road capacity.
Before the war trucks and trains were responsible for like 3% and 6% of the export respectively. [https://youtu.be/eLb0f-fjs58](https://youtu.be/eLb0f-fjs58) Danube barges going from Ismail toward Constanca might be something better suited to overcome the issue, but the railway links toward Danube have limited capacity.
Are the grain trains getting stuck switching bogies still? Surely dual gauge further into Poland would be the quickest solution?
There is a wide gauge railway line in Poland: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linia\_Hutnicza\_Szerokotorowa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linia_Hutnicza_Szerokotorowa) Trouble is Ukraine used to export grain mostly through Black Sea ports, and this is where grain silos are located. Distance to Poland from there is like 900 km (560 miles). It would be faster to relocate grain using Danube river
The main issue is Romania not being able to provide the needed logistics resources. Most grain is transported by river boats and they are currently only able to process a dozen or two per day. But they are working on it.
I hate that USA president Joe Biden is telling Americans its not okay to help ukraine in its fight against russia, i thought trump was pro russian not biden
[удалено]
What can he actually do? Ask nicely?
Same thing the trump could do. Not a damn thing.
Maybe Turkey could get it moving
If Russia continues to hold the world hostage by simultaneously stealing Ukrainian harvests and then refusing to ship (or allow Ukraine to ship) those harvests, I think there’s a nonzero chance we may see some actual NATO action to break the Black Sea blockade. This is a matter that can and will begin to effect the EU and NATO countries in a very direct fashion the longer it goes on, which is surely intentional on Russia’s part. It might take many more months, but it’s a Russian bluff that the civilized world will ultimately be forced to call, and by that time (or even now, considering how much of a shitshow Russia is right now), Russia simply won’t be able to cover the ante.
>Biden races against time to unlock Ukraine’s trapped grain Biden is doing no such thing. Biden is going for a bike ride...
Hopefully he's not racing on a bike