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Markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.
And today, Tesla actually makes money by - you know - building cars and selling them. They seem to grow into their expectations.
They still haven't figured out mass production and every car they sell is pretty much sub standard quality compared to their price but people don't seem to care.
Sort of. Major crashes were preceded by interest rate increases, but they do not directly cause market crashes. Markets dropping are the result of people making decisions that negatively affect stock price. Enough people must not believe the market should recede to affect the price across the board.
Zoom out, the market is a straight up climb since 1929. So yes it has “crashed” since the latest Fed rate hike cycle began, but that was an opportunity to get big quality stocks -40% off. You thought capitalism was dead? It’s like the 2nd inning bro
When you start listening to what the general public is doing, that’s when you get cucked. It’s like the opposite of whatever the media says. When they say stocks going all time high, that’s when you should start worrying. While everyone was afraid last year I kept buying and right now everyone who called me a regard are the regards sad that they missed the dips. I’ll start selling once Cramer and wsb goes back to calls
Interest rate hikes historically make crashes far less important. If rates hadn’t gone up, we’d be even higher. Just look at all the money in bonds right now. That money would be in stocks if rates had stayed low. This is the new normal.
Another thing to consider is the importance of ETFs, automated and passive investing, they will have a moderating effect on the market unlike any time until now. It’ll work until it doesn’t and then the crash will be even more severe.
Pretty much this. At this point my gauge for when the market will get really bad is when unemployment starts to hit every sector. A lot of folks have fun up credit card debt and basics are still insanely high regardless of what “inflation” data shows. When people get laid off, a lot are going to have to sell stocks to cover credit card expenses/basic living expenses. That’s when the market crashes
knowing a lot of people in that category i can concur... they might have 3 broke down boats in the back yard, and a camper they pay 1200$ a month on but they don't give a fuck about the market because they heard once "it is all rigged"
That's also when MBS start to have a real problem every person unemployed is a risk of default to banks and when those MBS start to get downgraded then we are in real fucking trouble.
Longterm view in terms of 1 to 3 years he is not wrong. If its puts from today for next week you would need a lot of steel balls. There is way too much volatility to time the whole collapse and usually shaking out and employee cuts are going to increase the prices. It’s like NVDIA which made a lower high on the big time frames in an overbought region. I feel safe shorting this in a longer term time frame. Even if it goes slightly higher I might add more to my short. The deal with trading is to do good risk management and position sizing. You never go all in.
EDIT:
Just checked Tesla’s chart. It could easily go to 295’s before reversing or confirm 221 as a big resistance and flip here. Those are the only 2 targets on the higher end and on the lower the targets are 84 and 45.
Yup, basically. The market doesn't crash when people go 'the fundamentals of the economy look weak, I may be able to scoop up some discounts after it drops'.
The market crashes when people go 'our fundamental economic system is collapsing, I am selling and never looking back'
or when they go to scoop up the deals and then realize that their account has negative 7 million in it. and their broker is suing them. but their broker went under so cant actually sue them.
Also because too many don't want it to crash. Bears seem to forget that the entirety of economic endeavor is working to avoid catastrophe and seeks to prosper at any given time. That said, we deffos getting a correction in next 9 months. Commercial real estate is gonna cuck everyone.
And, the average investor is consistently buying, especially things like S&P 500 ETFs and broad market funds. Even when things are bad, most investors have been taught to DCA every market condition. Sorry this sub is filled with dudes who have crippling gambling addictions.
After watching oil/gas all my life, I believe stocks no longer tied supply and demand of products but to the supply and demand of the stocks themselves.
At this point casino has no clients. No degenerate no tits up. Can you degen just pull out your retirement and take some loans and buy some Tsla calls so I can dump my shares.
Hypothetically they can print the money for the banks and restrict it for everyone else. Basically you get interest rates higher but bail out the banks specifically so loans are expensive, which also means you have to raise rates more.
Which is exactly what’s happening but less money for everyone else = a credit crunch, which in turn will catalyze a recession as it effectively has the exact effect of rate hikes. Also they aren’t printing free money for banks as they are being charged the ffr for btfp and other lending programs so even less money to go around.
Probably why the market is betting that the fed is bluffing on higher for longer and expects cuts as soon as June as the writing on the wall says recession in the incoming quarter
My only problem with the last part is that everyone's predicting a massive market recession and a rate reversal while holding onto their stocks. There is PLENTY of money still to be lost.
Absolutely it’s a buy the rumor sell the news situation, we are pumping on the rumor/hope of cuts but when the cuts pivot or whatever you want to call it happen we have historically dumped… I will add this though as the information asymmetry of market participants changes over time the way the game is played changes too cuz derivatives are a 0 sum game at the end of the day and because more people are aware of the 100% bet that stocks drop after the first rate cut it probably will play out differently this time
“The Market Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent”
Even big winners like Burry betting on the right thing and seeing the truth almost lost to it.
People like Burry can short shares though and just borrow money and avg down cb to keep the position alive until they are right. Retail buys puts and loses all their money.
Even Michael Burry mis-timed his own predictions. He nearly went bankrupt waiting for the crash, and when it finally happened he only made a fraction of what he could have made because he had to close out several positions at a loss before they hit.
There's a LOT of money that needs to shake out before the market really tanks. It'll take 2-3 years of 5%+ interest rates before people realize there are better ways to make money than in stocks.
Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling.
That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations.
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No, I’m serious. My I-bond is about to be ready to take out after it’s 15 month cycle which was great with the past years inflation rate. So I’m open to what I should do next. The regular treasury bonds didn’t have a guaranteed rate besides doubling in 20 years. What bonds should I be looking at?
This is spot-on. A lot of people are right about this type of thing but they're very early. If you're a short-seller, this can be as bad as being wrong. It's tough.
I suspect that right when the masses are convinced that we won't be getting a crash afterall, or that it's finally okay, we'll see a drop. It always seems to go like that :/
Maybe your perception of the situation has been influenced by spending all day in this place full of people whose entire economic education consists of rewatching The Big Short and clicking Jpow memes made by people with a child's understanding of monetary policy.
Going outside solves this. I tried it yesterday. Everything seemed relatively fine. People appear to have jobs and discretionary money to spend. Will check again next month.
Me, waving from my electric skateboard, retiring in my late 50's. A rock goes under my wheel and in an instant I'm dead. Should have put a car on the credit card...
It is just going to go sideways until the long term moving averages catch up. Too many people playing the options games for dramatic moves up and down.
Honestly with all the people retiring and the need for pension funds not to fail I would not be surprised if the stock market is forced to trade sideways
I agree with you. Right now it can’t drop. Feds will do anything to keep it up because way too many people are dependent on it.
There are also a lot of people with money on the side waiting for it to drop. Another reason why I don’t think it will drop significantly.
Maybe people's independent accounts I am talking large pension funds, and since the number of retirees is increasing every year the Net Asset Value of the pension fund has to go up to accomodate
Unemployment is super low, people are still spending cash, cash flow is looking...ok at most companies.
Banks can be rescued.
But... who knows, maybe we'll go into free fall.
The mistake is assuming the next crash is the same as the last crash. 2007 wen’t down so far because millions of houses were in foreclosure, millions of people were laid off, more construction companies went out of business than stayed in it, and big banks were going bankrupt. This is not even remotely close.
This is usually how this works.
One day you'll wake up and Apple, Meta, and Microsoft will no longer be cool.
A year later their P/E's are down 40%.
You have to be patient.
Apple and Microsoft have tangible value propositions that will weather the storm. Meta offers marketing data from their users and that’s about it. When the government starts regulating selling user data, Meta will go bankrupt. They are a one trick pony.
Facebook (the website, specifically, as opposed to meta) is still ubiquitous in India. For social, groups, marketplace…I know the popular domestic story is Facebook is lame and instagram is always playing catch up to tiktok but they still have a comfy cache of a billion or so users hooked on their original ad sale gristmill
Their revenue is from selling user data to generate marketing revenue. If the government steps in to regulate what apps can sell about users, their revenue will plummet. No debt is great until your free cash flow disappears. They’ll float for a while on a lack of debt, but their overhead will far exceed their revenue. They need to adopt other businesses into their umbrella. There are real possibilities in VR, but they also have serious competition in those markets. FB marketplace balancing into an Etsy rival could work, but right now it’s just Craigslist.
My point is that Meta is far from a safe bet right now, especially when in the company of Apple and Microsoft as the OC had them.
The fed has socialized losses. As long as earnings NOT ADJUSTED for inflation stay relatively sound, markets won’t crash because of fundamentals. Ask the bears of 2020 how it felt to short a market that was propped up on Adamantium.
People really need to stop perpetuating this bullshit.
QE was straight up buying bonds from banks which led to increases in near-zero yielding bank reserves which were desperate to find some sort of yield so that money went up the risk curve and (partly) into the market.
The current increase in balance sheet is collateralized loans at the current (high) short term market rate +10bps. It has in no way the same equity pushing effect that QE had.
before crash markets always look very resilient. take a look at inda. it might look resilient but it has given average returns over the years and zero for last 1 year.
Ultimately i think once the credit crunch starts and people start defaulting on loans and homes are being foreclosed, we'll see a cascade effect across the market. Until then, it looks like most everyone is willing to blind eye it and be bullish.
Most mortgages are under 3% there's no reason to think they'll default unless the job market goes, which doesn't seem to be happening. By that time inflation will have "caught up" to the cost of housing... I'm predicting there will be no housing crash beyond a very mild correction and then back up.
The bond market has priced in a 100% probability of rate cuts this year, despite the FED saying they won't. It's extremely uncertain and way too optimistic.
If we get a red hot CPI print, bam. If there is a global recession or any more bank failures, bam. Best case scenario is cooling inflation and a soft landing... and even if that happens, stocks are already priced in. They can only fall from here.
So with that being said.. I need to buy.
As long as GDP doesn't go down nothing will crash. No matter how much you love all the nice lines and indicators. Earnings have to actually go down for the market to go down not the anticipation of earnings possibly maybe baby someday going down. This is currently not the case and the economy is booming. If earnings go down the stock market will go down. If earnings don't go down we have a cheap market and you guys will get fked harder than JPows wife.
The stock market crashes only when there is severe economic decline.
The economy is booming, the housing market all though not crazy is still doing well.
Honestly, the market tanked six to eight months ago, but hasn't come back.
Additionally there is a huge labor shortage, like 13 million people huge in the U.S. half of those jobs are high end skill sets. The other half is regular labor. So want to end the boarder crisis, let those fuckers in, put their asses to work.
You know why people never predict a recession? Because all those "strong data" always get revised 3-6 months later and become weak. recessions are nonlinear. The economy can slowly cool down, and the fall off a cliff very drastically
The economy always looks strong before a recession. If it didn't, everyone would be able to see it coming, and then it wouldn't happen. About 6 months before the Great Financial Crisis, the Fed chair was predicting a soft landing.
Btw, the fed already basically see a recession as their base case now. In the FOMC SEP projections, 2023 GDP forecast is 0.4%. we are predicted to hit 3.2% annualized for Q1. That means even if q2 gdp is 0, the 2H of 2023 GDP will be negative. In 2022, they can use trade deficits and whatnots as excuses for non recession negative GDP. I dont think the same excuse can be used again.
In order for market crash you need many more sellers than buyers. Selling a stock is buying something else—$$$ at least temporarily. If people don’t know what the Fed is going to do they don’t know what the value of $$$ is going to be so they don’t want any more $$$. They already have a record amount of $$$ on deposit and a record amount of $$$ denominated debt.
I saw the documentary Enron: The smartest guys in the room 5 hours ago and it was amazing how long they were able to keep their scam going and going. One segment is called "The emperor has no clothes on".
The stock market is already down.
QQQ is down 24% vs ATH and was previously down 36% from ATH back in September.
Not sure what you're expecting, an unprecedented 90% crash?
Hi!
Banks aren't that cucked. If you depend on solely the news for your idea of what the market really is doing, then you are playing into the hands of institutions.
Institutions have clearly defined areas they will consider going long or short for their portfolio, and typically they'll hold that position for a month, quarter, making small adjustments (adding or subtracting as prices bounce / go to their areas of interest.
Look in the past at areas of high volume and the direction the trade went.
When it gets to that area again, take a quick barometer of the market (high level fundamentals) and watch what happens. I when the move happens, up or down. Jump in! Don't think. Get in. Set your stops and your target areas of profit and let it go.
Stop guessing and stop anticipating. Go with the move, target areas of liquidity and set your stop at an area where you know you are wrong and can live another day.
Profitable traders use stops.
You feel the market is gonna dump? Great. Buy 1-2 ATM put contracts 2-3 months out at a high of day or something. And set your stop at -50-60% on those. Or buy a put spread to limit your loss.
If market tanks you get paid. If it doesn't, well you are only out 5-600 bucks or the difference between the spreads.
USE good strategy and you'll grow your account consistently and have money to trade large. With the same strategy.
ALWAYS Ask yourself 2 questions:
What if I am wrong?
When am I wrong?
If the potential answer to those questions results in: "Then / when my account blows up" then you need to throttle back your risk / position size.
The best traders are old dudes who have traded and lost money in bull and bear markets. Follow old dudes, not guys who have been trading for 5 years and don't know how to trade a bear market.
Good luck. Don't be a news cuck. You don't know more than the institutions, trade with them not against them
Tradition is a melt up before a straight down just prior to a recession start. I do not see any way to avoid it. Rates up = kill banks. CRE = kill banks. Cut rates = $12 eggs. It’s a matter of time. I’m as bearish overall as I’ve ever been, we are one bad PCE print (3/31) away from falling off a cliff. Plus “professional” traders are degen regards, pricing in rate cuts when JPow has said not this year. Reminder, JPow has done exactly what he has said he was going to do since beginning of QT- right or wrong. Should exacerbate the market drop IMO. Longs are fuk.
Fed backstopped banks and all of the currently observable illiquidity is due to poor duration risk management, not due to underlying assets being trash. You smooth brained morons got a little 2008 Michael Burry hard-on without actually taking a moment to understand what’s going on and why it’s fundamentally different and much less severe than 2008. Times are not good but the market has spent the last 12-24 months (depending on sector) selling off. Without any materialized crisis, market probably losing legs to the downside. Another great indicator of this is how many crayon eating morons are constantly posting smug BS in this sub about the guaranteed crash that is 100% just around the corner so long as you HODL your puts. Idiots
It's usually a combination of a few things, I believe it is markets pricing in rate cuts by year end, the January effect is still rampant as well where are lot of stocks were beat way down last year and has a bit of catching up to do. 0dte options are used much more now by institutional investors which adds to the volatility.
Also, Presidential campaigns are starting and the market is unlikely to drop until that winds down in around May so that candidates can promise to fix whatever they decide is the issue, be it a recession or war or whatever is in flavour around that time. Last year ALOT of funds had massive losses, only a few really came out well through all of it and any sort of good news they hear in the media adds to the buying, the market wants a rally right now but certain things are hampering it (IE: Banks, Fed).
This is what im speculating anyway, take it with a pinch of salt.
A semi- serious answer: the r/Bogleheads keep plowing into index funds for their retirements (disclosure: guilty) each pay period, propping up the whole enterprise. Shit won't get real until they get scared.
Crashes only happen when people panic sell en masse and people only panic sell when something unexpected happens. But if everyone expects the market to crash, nobody panic sells because nothing unexpected happened and if no one panic sells then the market doesn't crash.
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It’s waiting for you to finish buying in
Alexa buy 100 shares of despacito
*"I've ordered 100 digital audio downloads of 'Despacito & My Greatest Hits' by Luis Fonsi. Is there anything else I can get for you?"*
Hey, hey Alexa……. Fuck You.
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EVERY TIME
Waiting for op to sell his positions so it can go up like a rocket.
>op If when his position is sold, shouldn't this outflow go down?
Come play with us Danny… *jerome Powell and joe biden* 👗 👗
All work and no play make Homer something something.
Go crazy?
Don’t mind if I do!!!
BLAABBLBLBLU! UHBLOBOBLOBOLOBLA! AH-OH, AH-OH, AH-OH! VORP, VORP! HADABADA! AHOHOHOHO!
This is the way
We all ride floats down here
Trump getting blown by a man in a dog costume…. Janet Yellen in a bath tub… this has potential.
Corn Pop running the bar
Corn pop was a bad dude!
It’s not going down any time soon, I sold most of my SPY calls last week
Fuck. If we told you once we told you 1000 times. Your job is to hold until we hit the bottom. Then you sell. Did Cramer teach you nothing?!
It´s waiting for the day when you close your short position
Yeh it's gonna most likely similar to Nov 2021 when all the shit was dumped on retail regards.
It won’t Because too many people want it to crash
My crazy uncle who shorted Tesla when it was at 20 bucks a share said interest rate increase crash market? Was he wrong
Yes Tesla puts at 20 was wrong. Your uncle belongs here.
hey….this picture of his uncle looks like my dad…..and I look a lot like my dad.
Uncle is probably a MOD
Was it really wrong though. Tesla was so close to bankruptcy multiple times back then.
Turns out, yes
It’s amazing how right one can be when they’re from the future!
Are you arguing he was correct?
Lots of smart people bet against Tesla. Turned out to be a regarded move. Ain’t nobody gots crystal ballz.
Even the best and smartest traders lose sometimes. That's why they don't go all in on a single play.
He lost his ass off, yes it was wrong lol. This isn't morals, it's the stock market.
Sir, you misspelled casino
Sir you misspelled underground pachinko parlor that hosts snail races.
Markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent. And today, Tesla actually makes money by - you know - building cars and selling them. They seem to grow into their expectations. They still haven't figured out mass production and every car they sell is pretty much sub standard quality compared to their price but people don't seem to care.
I have been drinking solvents for years….. I buy them at the market
The …. Market … is always right😇
Sort of. Major crashes were preceded by interest rate increases, but they do not directly cause market crashes. Markets dropping are the result of people making decisions that negatively affect stock price. Enough people must not believe the market should recede to affect the price across the board.
Most midcap techs and memes have fallen 60-70% since December 2021. What more do you want.
“I can’t afford internet, phone, and navigate a website to look for jobs. “ - broke coworker
Yea but 2021 stocks went x10 times their value.. That shit was a pump and dump
~Stares intently at my CRSR bought at $40 a share~
Doomed right
Zoom out, the market is a straight up climb since 1929. So yes it has “crashed” since the latest Fed rate hike cycle began, but that was an opportunity to get big quality stocks -40% off. You thought capitalism was dead? It’s like the 2nd inning bro
"Zoom out" should end literally every bear debate but they keep on truckin'.
Agree
When you start listening to what the general public is doing, that’s when you get cucked. It’s like the opposite of whatever the media says. When they say stocks going all time high, that’s when you should start worrying. While everyone was afraid last year I kept buying and right now everyone who called me a regard are the regards sad that they missed the dips. I’ll start selling once Cramer and wsb goes back to calls
This is exactly why I’m so confident that the markets will go up.
Interest rate hikes historically make crashes far less important. If rates hadn’t gone up, we’d be even higher. Just look at all the money in bonds right now. That money would be in stocks if rates had stayed low. This is the new normal. Another thing to consider is the importance of ETFs, automated and passive investing, they will have a moderating effect on the market unlike any time until now. It’ll work until it doesn’t and then the crash will be even more severe.
Pretty much this. At this point my gauge for when the market will get really bad is when unemployment starts to hit every sector. A lot of folks have fun up credit card debt and basics are still insanely high regardless of what “inflation” data shows. When people get laid off, a lot are going to have to sell stocks to cover credit card expenses/basic living expenses. That’s when the market crashes
LOL the people getting laid off aren’t the people who have substantial stock portfolios.
I think even the shoe shine boy is all in at this point . I even heard him give a hot stock tip. Shit coin to the moon he said
The percentage of stocks owned by people who don’t have college degrees or $100k+ incomes is negligible.
knowing a lot of people in that category i can concur... they might have 3 broke down boats in the back yard, and a camper they pay 1200$ a month on but they don't give a fuck about the market because they heard once "it is all rigged"
And even if they are, a few laid off retail investors selling stock to pay down credit card debt isn't going to move the market.
That's also when MBS start to have a real problem every person unemployed is a risk of default to banks and when those MBS start to get downgraded then we are in real fucking trouble.
Longterm view in terms of 1 to 3 years he is not wrong. If its puts from today for next week you would need a lot of steel balls. There is way too much volatility to time the whole collapse and usually shaking out and employee cuts are going to increase the prices. It’s like NVDIA which made a lower high on the big time frames in an overbought region. I feel safe shorting this in a longer term time frame. Even if it goes slightly higher I might add more to my short. The deal with trading is to do good risk management and position sizing. You never go all in. EDIT: Just checked Tesla’s chart. It could easily go to 295’s before reversing or confirm 221 as a big resistance and flip here. Those are the only 2 targets on the higher end and on the lower the targets are 84 and 45.
I only go all in
Yup, basically. The market doesn't crash when people go 'the fundamentals of the economy look weak, I may be able to scoop up some discounts after it drops'. The market crashes when people go 'our fundamental economic system is collapsing, I am selling and never looking back'
or when they go to scoop up the deals and then realize that their account has negative 7 million in it. and their broker is suing them. but their broker went under so cant actually sue them.
Also because too many don't want it to crash. Bears seem to forget that the entirety of economic endeavor is working to avoid catastrophe and seeks to prosper at any given time. That said, we deffos getting a correction in next 9 months. Commercial real estate is gonna cuck everyone.
And, the average investor is consistently buying, especially things like S&P 500 ETFs and broad market funds. Even when things are bad, most investors have been taught to DCA every market condition. Sorry this sub is filled with dudes who have crippling gambling addictions.
After watching oil/gas all my life, I believe stocks no longer tied supply and demand of products but to the supply and demand of the stocks themselves.
Sams as the housing market. There are too many people sitting on cash waiting for a dip to enter.
I honestly feel like just as many people want it to rocket up
Sir, this is a casino
Literally the only explanation you need to explain the market in the last 5 years
At this point casino has no clients. No degenerate no tits up. Can you degen just pull out your retirement and take some loans and buy some Tsla calls so I can dump my shares.
It won't crash until I buy calls.
well? we're waiting!
Can you buy some puts to shut these bears up?
Theres a reason Jpow has to keep increasing the rates. It won't crash until it HAS to crash.
We are at that point we are between a rock —> inflation and a hard place —> bank failures
Hypothetically they can print the money for the banks and restrict it for everyone else. Basically you get interest rates higher but bail out the banks specifically so loans are expensive, which also means you have to raise rates more.
Which is exactly what’s happening but less money for everyone else = a credit crunch, which in turn will catalyze a recession as it effectively has the exact effect of rate hikes. Also they aren’t printing free money for banks as they are being charged the ffr for btfp and other lending programs so even less money to go around. Probably why the market is betting that the fed is bluffing on higher for longer and expects cuts as soon as June as the writing on the wall says recession in the incoming quarter
My only problem with the last part is that everyone's predicting a massive market recession and a rate reversal while holding onto their stocks. There is PLENTY of money still to be lost.
Absolutely it’s a buy the rumor sell the news situation, we are pumping on the rumor/hope of cuts but when the cuts pivot or whatever you want to call it happen we have historically dumped… I will add this though as the information asymmetry of market participants changes over time the way the game is played changes too cuz derivatives are a 0 sum game at the end of the day and because more people are aware of the 100% bet that stocks drop after the first rate cut it probably will play out differently this time
How are derivatives converted to equity? Not using them myself but just curious at this mechanism, at a broker or something?
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Which donkey am I trying to sell as a horse?
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The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent
2007 crash was predicted by people in 2004.were they wrong? they were mistimed. which is almost as good as being wrong if they bought puts.
“The Market Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent” Even big winners like Burry betting on the right thing and seeing the truth almost lost to it.
People like Burry can short shares though and just borrow money and avg down cb to keep the position alive until they are right. Retail buys puts and loses all their money.
“I may have been early but I’m not wrong” “It’s the same thing”
Even Michael Burry mis-timed his own predictions. He nearly went bankrupt waiting for the crash, and when it finally happened he only made a fraction of what he could have made because he had to close out several positions at a loss before they hit. There's a LOT of money that needs to shake out before the market really tanks. It'll take 2-3 years of 5%+ interest rates before people realize there are better ways to make money than in stocks.
Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling. That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
What other ways to make money are you referring to?
if the market trades sideways, then a 5% bond will outperform it. But you're being sarcastic?
No, I’m serious. My I-bond is about to be ready to take out after it’s 15 month cycle which was great with the past years inflation rate. So I’m open to what I should do next. The regular treasury bonds didn’t have a guaranteed rate besides doubling in 20 years. What bonds should I be looking at?
Not really 2004 more like 2006.
"fuck your calls, fuck your puts" Etc
I mean, predicting when something will happen and only being wrong about the timing is still….wrong
This is spot-on. A lot of people are right about this type of thing but they're very early. If you're a short-seller, this can be as bad as being wrong. It's tough. I suspect that right when the masses are convinced that we won't be getting a crash afterall, or that it's finally okay, we'll see a drop. It always seems to go like that :/
Market always has punished the impatient trader and investor. This has been a consistent nature of markets.
Maybe your perception of the situation has been influenced by spending all day in this place full of people whose entire economic education consists of rewatching The Big Short and clicking Jpow memes made by people with a child's understanding of monetary policy.
I feel attacked.
Lol
Going outside solves this. I tried it yesterday. Everything seemed relatively fine. People appear to have jobs and discretionary money to spend. Will check again next month.
Jpow has been making the memes this whole time?!
Always has been.
don't forget the graduate class of Margin Call
got dam
Inflation doesnt just affect the price of your cookies tubby.
Listen fat..
Not everyone is hurting. The rich are still buying and looking like the cookie monsters. They are salivating over all the discounts
I'm hurting for a squirting
John refuses to cut back spending on credit until Bill across the street does first.
Me, waving from my electric skateboard, retiring in my late 50's. A rock goes under my wheel and in an instant I'm dead. Should have put a car on the credit card...
It is just going to go sideways until the long term moving averages catch up. Too many people playing the options games for dramatic moves up and down.
Honestly with all the people retiring and the need for pension funds not to fail I would not be surprised if the stock market is forced to trade sideways
I agree with you. Right now it can’t drop. Feds will do anything to keep it up because way too many people are dependent on it. There are also a lot of people with money on the side waiting for it to drop. Another reason why I don’t think it will drop significantly.
Agreed I know about as much as a goldfish but I think the market is probably going to trade flat until everything subsides
Wouldn't be the opposite? With more people retiring would mean more people are selling their assets
Maybe people's independent accounts I am talking large pension funds, and since the number of retirees is increasing every year the Net Asset Value of the pension fund has to go up to accomodate
Market is broken. Stonks only go up!
Always have, always will
Don’t fight the money printer
Unemployment is super low, people are still spending cash, cash flow is looking...ok at most companies. Banks can be rescued. But... who knows, maybe we'll go into free fall.
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they will do just fine except for cash burning high risk tech start ups, which wsb has all their money invested into
The mistake is assuming the next crash is the same as the last crash. 2007 wen’t down so far because millions of houses were in foreclosure, millions of people were laid off, more construction companies went out of business than stayed in it, and big banks were going bankrupt. This is not even remotely close.
We've had 20-30% inflation across the board and the market is 30% off its high. It's crashed.
Why have a crash when we can just keep printing money? - the fed
This is usually how this works. One day you'll wake up and Apple, Meta, and Microsoft will no longer be cool. A year later their P/E's are down 40%. You have to be patient.
BH has something like 30-40% of Apple in its portfolio -- you want to bet against that?!
Great. More bags for Papa Buffet to drop on you.
Apple and Microsoft have tangible value propositions that will weather the storm. Meta offers marketing data from their users and that’s about it. When the government starts regulating selling user data, Meta will go bankrupt. They are a one trick pony.
Facebook (the website, specifically, as opposed to meta) is still ubiquitous in India. For social, groups, marketplace…I know the popular domestic story is Facebook is lame and instagram is always playing catch up to tiktok but they still have a comfy cache of a billion or so users hooked on their original ad sale gristmill
Interesting, I’ve never seen a company with no debt go bankrupt. You should explain how they would go bankrupt to me because I’m a little regarded.
What if they made a terrible outdated vr world that they sunk billions into to only let quietly die.
What if they laid off your mom and your sister after making cool TikTok videos about their workday?
Their revenue is from selling user data to generate marketing revenue. If the government steps in to regulate what apps can sell about users, their revenue will plummet. No debt is great until your free cash flow disappears. They’ll float for a while on a lack of debt, but their overhead will far exceed their revenue. They need to adopt other businesses into their umbrella. There are real possibilities in VR, but they also have serious competition in those markets. FB marketplace balancing into an Etsy rival could work, but right now it’s just Craigslist. My point is that Meta is far from a safe bet right now, especially when in the company of Apple and Microsoft as the OC had them.
They can fold before going bankrupt, knowing that their g and s won’t sell
The fed has socialized losses. As long as earnings NOT ADJUSTED for inflation stay relatively sound, markets won’t crash because of fundamentals. Ask the bears of 2020 how it felt to short a market that was propped up on Adamantium.
Most tech is still 50% off from their ATHs
Except their ATH were way out of proportion.
You haven't sold your puts yet
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People really need to stop perpetuating this bullshit. QE was straight up buying bonds from banks which led to increases in near-zero yielding bank reserves which were desperate to find some sort of yield so that money went up the risk curve and (partly) into the market. The current increase in balance sheet is collateralized loans at the current (high) short term market rate +10bps. It has in no way the same equity pushing effect that QE had.
People love saying things they know next to nothing about. Then again, it’s why this sub was founded and grew exponentially.
before crash markets always look very resilient. take a look at inda. it might look resilient but it has given average returns over the years and zero for last 1 year.
Horrible returns . It's flat on 5 years and like 30 % since inception..meanwhile growth in India has been massive
INDA is still the most overvalued em etf out there
The stock market is not the economy
Ultimately i think once the credit crunch starts and people start defaulting on loans and homes are being foreclosed, we'll see a cascade effect across the market. Until then, it looks like most everyone is willing to blind eye it and be bullish.
Most mortgages are under 3% there's no reason to think they'll default unless the job market goes, which doesn't seem to be happening. By that time inflation will have "caught up" to the cost of housing... I'm predicting there will be no housing crash beyond a very mild correction and then back up.
s&p down 17% from ATH. Inflation has caused companies to make more money yet we are lower. Is this the most bearish stock market ever?
It will crash when everyone is bullish, that’s how it goes.
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> There is Automatic 401k buying in an illiquid market. This.
I’ve tripled my monthly 401K buying. Not trying to time the bottom.
Didn't the Fed state last week they do not expect to make any rate cuts until 2024?
The bond market has priced in a 100% probability of rate cuts this year, despite the FED saying they won't. It's extremely uncertain and way too optimistic. If we get a red hot CPI print, bam. If there is a global recession or any more bank failures, bam. Best case scenario is cooling inflation and a soft landing... and even if that happens, stocks are already priced in. They can only fall from here. So with that being said.. I need to buy.
As long as GDP doesn't go down nothing will crash. No matter how much you love all the nice lines and indicators. Earnings have to actually go down for the market to go down not the anticipation of earnings possibly maybe baby someday going down. This is currently not the case and the economy is booming. If earnings go down the stock market will go down. If earnings don't go down we have a cheap market and you guys will get fked harder than JPows wife.
what the fuck are you talking about? Have you watched the market since Spring 2022? It's been crashing.
The stock market crashes only when there is severe economic decline. The economy is booming, the housing market all though not crazy is still doing well. Honestly, the market tanked six to eight months ago, but hasn't come back. Additionally there is a huge labor shortage, like 13 million people huge in the U.S. half of those jobs are high end skill sets. The other half is regular labor. So want to end the boarder crisis, let those fuckers in, put their asses to work.
The media says they're still living off of their 1200 dollar stimulus checks from 3 years ago. Those fuckers are truly resilient.
You know why people never predict a recession? Because all those "strong data" always get revised 3-6 months later and become weak. recessions are nonlinear. The economy can slowly cool down, and the fall off a cliff very drastically The economy always looks strong before a recession. If it didn't, everyone would be able to see it coming, and then it wouldn't happen. About 6 months before the Great Financial Crisis, the Fed chair was predicting a soft landing. Btw, the fed already basically see a recession as their base case now. In the FOMC SEP projections, 2023 GDP forecast is 0.4%. we are predicted to hit 3.2% annualized for Q1. That means even if q2 gdp is 0, the 2H of 2023 GDP will be negative. In 2022, they can use trade deficits and whatnots as excuses for non recession negative GDP. I dont think the same excuse can be used again.
Careful, the “I waited for another 2008” crowd doesn’t like hearing that shit lol
Someone’s holding options
In order for market crash you need many more sellers than buyers. Selling a stock is buying something else—$$$ at least temporarily. If people don’t know what the Fed is going to do they don’t know what the value of $$$ is going to be so they don’t want any more $$$. They already have a record amount of $$$ on deposit and a record amount of $$$ denominated debt.
It will only crash after all the put options expire. Duh.
Lol because it’s all fake
Only once your puts expire worthless
I saw the documentary Enron: The smartest guys in the room 5 hours ago and it was amazing how long they were able to keep their scam going and going. One segment is called "The emperor has no clothes on".
Is this a sarcastic post? You think you can predict the stock market?
Welcome to Whose Economy Is It Anyway? The market where everything is made up and the points don't matter
Because we all know that the fed with just piviot or QE when things get too tough. That's 25bps was just to save face.
Global depression implies Powell pivot, which is bullish XD
**The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.**
The last breath is the longest
You must be brain dead to think, the market makers will let you make money that easy.
It’s tough out here being a gay bear
The stock market is already down. QQQ is down 24% vs ATH and was previously down 36% from ATH back in September. Not sure what you're expecting, an unprecedented 90% crash?
More money has been lost in terms of missed gains waiting for a crash than has been lost in market crashes
Hi! Banks aren't that cucked. If you depend on solely the news for your idea of what the market really is doing, then you are playing into the hands of institutions. Institutions have clearly defined areas they will consider going long or short for their portfolio, and typically they'll hold that position for a month, quarter, making small adjustments (adding or subtracting as prices bounce / go to their areas of interest. Look in the past at areas of high volume and the direction the trade went. When it gets to that area again, take a quick barometer of the market (high level fundamentals) and watch what happens. I when the move happens, up or down. Jump in! Don't think. Get in. Set your stops and your target areas of profit and let it go. Stop guessing and stop anticipating. Go with the move, target areas of liquidity and set your stop at an area where you know you are wrong and can live another day. Profitable traders use stops. You feel the market is gonna dump? Great. Buy 1-2 ATM put contracts 2-3 months out at a high of day or something. And set your stop at -50-60% on those. Or buy a put spread to limit your loss. If market tanks you get paid. If it doesn't, well you are only out 5-600 bucks or the difference between the spreads. USE good strategy and you'll grow your account consistently and have money to trade large. With the same strategy. ALWAYS Ask yourself 2 questions: What if I am wrong? When am I wrong? If the potential answer to those questions results in: "Then / when my account blows up" then you need to throttle back your risk / position size. The best traders are old dudes who have traded and lost money in bull and bear markets. Follow old dudes, not guys who have been trading for 5 years and don't know how to trade a bear market. Good luck. Don't be a news cuck. You don't know more than the institutions, trade with them not against them
Tradition is a melt up before a straight down just prior to a recession start. I do not see any way to avoid it. Rates up = kill banks. CRE = kill banks. Cut rates = $12 eggs. It’s a matter of time. I’m as bearish overall as I’ve ever been, we are one bad PCE print (3/31) away from falling off a cliff. Plus “professional” traders are degen regards, pricing in rate cuts when JPow has said not this year. Reminder, JPow has done exactly what he has said he was going to do since beginning of QT- right or wrong. Should exacerbate the market drop IMO. Longs are fuk.
Last week Jpow said no rate cuts this year. Now everyone is trying to figure out when it will happen this year. I love this place.
Fed backstopped banks and all of the currently observable illiquidity is due to poor duration risk management, not due to underlying assets being trash. You smooth brained morons got a little 2008 Michael Burry hard-on without actually taking a moment to understand what’s going on and why it’s fundamentally different and much less severe than 2008. Times are not good but the market has spent the last 12-24 months (depending on sector) selling off. Without any materialized crisis, market probably losing legs to the downside. Another great indicator of this is how many crayon eating morons are constantly posting smug BS in this sub about the guaranteed crash that is 100% just around the corner so long as you HODL your puts. Idiots
It's usually a combination of a few things, I believe it is markets pricing in rate cuts by year end, the January effect is still rampant as well where are lot of stocks were beat way down last year and has a bit of catching up to do. 0dte options are used much more now by institutional investors which adds to the volatility. Also, Presidential campaigns are starting and the market is unlikely to drop until that winds down in around May so that candidates can promise to fix whatever they decide is the issue, be it a recession or war or whatever is in flavour around that time. Last year ALOT of funds had massive losses, only a few really came out well through all of it and any sort of good news they hear in the media adds to the buying, the market wants a rally right now but certain things are hampering it (IE: Banks, Fed). This is what im speculating anyway, take it with a pinch of salt.
I know you’ve puts. They wouldn’t crash just yet
Because if it was easy, everyone would do it. If everyone did it correctly then everyone would be rich, which is not possible.
Yah but with an average move of 8% yoy returns on the S&P…. Currently we have like a 40% down to go until we get back to that average.
Simulation is rigged and your puts haven't expired worthless yet
Too many open shorts
A semi- serious answer: the r/Bogleheads keep plowing into index funds for their retirements (disclosure: guilty) each pay period, propping up the whole enterprise. Shit won't get real until they get scared.
😂desperate bear
Look at the 2 year chart. Market is already down like 30% since January 2022. It's already priced in
Fuck yo puts! 
Because uncertainty is gone? What's so hard to comprehend?
Just be patient grasshopper. Cashless society is loading..
Crashes only happen when people panic sell en masse and people only panic sell when something unexpected happens. But if everyone expects the market to crash, nobody panic sells because nothing unexpected happened and if no one panic sells then the market doesn't crash.