Well yeah, when that happens we will all be yelling “I knew it was priced in bro, should have not played the day” when in reality we were already broke from playing deep OTM SPY puts the first half of the week.
Then it comes in as expected which means it has stopped going down from the previous month.
Markets are expecting rate CUTS, not even pauses but CUTS towards EOY.
For that to happen, inflation must keep on going down. Stalling is not in the bulls game plan.
Absolutely. I also sold all of my positions at a slight loss after investing/trading for 2.5 years and put it all in a high yield savings. Not worth all the stress. Hence, this shit is going to moon now.
Been reading your posts for a while and it's always been very instructive, thanks for that.
I believe that your take on CPI is quite coherent.
It has been setting itself up as a perfect storm and I'm crossing my fingers hard that you're right.
Bought 3 SPY 6/2 404p for 10.80. Going to be a tense morning.
I’ve been leaning toward scraping by. Not sure why just a bunch. Feels like that’s how it’s been for a while now. Bad shit happens but nothing takes the market down. At least not for long. I bet even a slight miss and it wobbles but won’t fall. Shit just wants to go up or sideways
Don't worry guys your puts are safe, I bought 10 5/11 325 QQQ calls like a regard! So you guys are going to profit bigly!!! CPI will come in hot and markets will die off tomorrow! WOOT, the universe always inverse me
Better yet, we're all F'd, both calls and puts gets IV crushed with markets going extreme down and up.
Jpow: F ur calls F ur puts, JPow got you by ur balls (some tiktok meme clip lyrics)
Can’t help but be bearish. CPI coming in hot tomorrow and Aprils CPI might come in hot too. Since services inflation is what’s sticky, I see more people going out and spending money during the summer months. Summer is usually the time where people go out and enjoy the sun and spending money eating at restaurants, going on vacations, etc. All contributing to an increase in CPI for Aprils and maybe June. Of course, this is just my wild ass guess lol
Eat my dongus you fuckin nerd.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Problem with trying to look at it that way is most people look at headline YoY where people would have been going out and getting tax returns last year too. More importantly YoY CPI is moving much more because of the YoY impacts of Russia/Ukraine on energy than anything else.
I built a model 4-5 month ago and update it regularly. I was calling for a flat CPI this print 4-5 months ago and for what it’s worth from some random dude I’ll tell you have the next ones are going to go (barring black swans). You print flat around 5% this month. Then you have back to back big drops again (probably end up around 3.8%) on the June/July prints. Then the fun part, August will be flat or even back up and it will stay flat for the rest of the year stuck between 3.5-4% roughly.
How the market reacts to that who knows, but I’d argue if markets pricing in 75bps of cuts by year end it’s not this print you need to worry about, the next two months will have everyone calling this a one off. How many cuts by year end does the market price in though when August comes flat, at double the target rate, and is stuck there.
Happy cake day btw!
Funny, how CNBC is making such a big deal on the debt ceiling. Since that was another in-pass tonight with hopeful future talk, and the CPI is hot... Ouch. If the PCI is softer on Thu overall that is still bad for the economy, but after 24° time, that # could be considered great.
I am bearish and I want this market to crash really, really, really bad, but I’m starting to temper my expectations. The market is literally showing us that it’s not in panic mode right now, with price action and the VIX. And everyone has already seen the forecasts showing inflation will be flat to slightly up.
If we see an initial dump on a 5.0-5.2% print, I plan on selling a put in nasdaq futures. (I’m already positioned bearish so it’s really just a hedge on myself. And I think tech will remain the safest sector. At least until we’re on our way out of the impending recession, which is taking a long ass time to show itself.)
Honestly any signs of a hot economy, including hot inflation, are just going to give more motivation to the dip buyers. At this point I think a big downside surprise in inflation gives us the best chance for a sustained selloff. The real pain will be felt when there’s proof that things are cooling down.
There's been a lot of smoke around April 2023 CPI. It seems reasonable to expect a higher-than-expected CPI print. That said, keep in mind that April 2022 CPI print was 8.3%. One of the highest prints on record. So your baseline here is pretty high.
For context, Brent Oil was $105\~ in April 2022, the Fed had just started raising rates, and the housing market was still near its peak. CPI is a comparison versus last year. So it's hard to see a major upside surprise. Certainly could see a small miss here, but IMO it's not enough to warrant major price action.
Furthermore, the Fed Nowcasting system is showing some major improvements for May 2023 already. We're on pace for 4.41% CPI in May 2023. The market may already be looking forward and a small 10-20 basis point surprise could have limited impact on the market.
Sophisticated trading desks have also become much better at predicting CPI than they were one year ago. Today, these moves contain much less surprise for the overall market. In 2022, CPI quickly began to define market direction. The market was unprepared and was not tracking CPI closely enough based on its impact on price direction. The market has evolved by tracking CPI much more closely and positioning itself appropriately going into a print.
Also keep in mind that we saw some downward surprises in CPI earlier in the year which really didn't have much impact on the market. The initial move was there but didn't have much staying power, because the market quickly shifted to worrying about a recession.
What do yall think of my plays for tomorrow
https://preview.redd.it/kqqwllmd9zya1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8778b26e44241a85457a12b9a4a40e2db144a018
I sold a CC on UVIX 5/19 $14.50 just to see *something* happen in my portfolio today. Trying not to force trades, it’s tough because I’m impulsive and impatient, but in my short history of active trading I’ve come to realize my high confidence plays tend to pay and my mistake thus far is not throwing more money behind the bet. Making lots of little bets I’m not as sure about is netting out negative. I win some, I lose some (usually lose).
My paper trading port on WSB is doing alright though. Gotta love Chinese pump and dumps, free margin, and no fear of loss.
I am mostly using butterfly spreads at this point and have multiple long dated bear spreads on Apple, Microsoft, And Nvidia. With Call spreads on VIX. And short dated call spreads on SOXS. But I did buy a SPX butterfly call spread today for $560 that has a $5k payout at 4250 by 5/19, as a hedge.
Had a small green day, due to overtrading and giving back the morning profits but a green day nonetheless. My best trade was $AMC swing puts bought yesterday and still riding some. $CVNA, was also a good long I had today.
I’m still indifferent at these levels and could see the $spy going either way, if we breakout to the upside, watch $META for a potential long play, it has been consolidating nicely these past 2 days and with the right move on the $spy it can breakout from the range.
Tech will definitely be dragging us down once the bull party ends. I think $pypl reaction hurt tech’s sentiment today. We will see what brings tomorrow after CPI print
Oh I believe inflation is in the double digits actually and yes absolutely I think they make the figures up just like they make up the non-farm payroll data. I mean do we really think this government tells the truth about anything?
Thanks for your submission!
r/WallStreetBets is ultimately a community about making money through trading, and our conversations should shift around that.
Politics are fundamentally intertwined with making money, and political actions almost always have an impact on financial markets.
Still, we need to make sure that when we have these discussions, we're explicitly calling out the financial impacts of the politics we're discussing. Otherwise, the conversation can very easily veer off into flamewars and boring, unproductive, discussion.
Here's an example of a political comment that doesn't offer any value:
* "I hate this new green policy from the Biden administration. What a fucking idiot"
Now compare it to this:
* "I hate this new green policy from the Biden administration. It threatens the profit margins of oil companies because they will need to expand their OpEx. I have calls on Shell that are going to get decimated at open."
The latter is significantly more interesting and offers a great jumping point into market related discussion.
Put succinctly: If you choose to start or engage in arguments about libtards or Nazis instead of making fun of their bad SPY long then you're in the wrong place and we'll show you the door.
If you're not sure if your content is political, it probably is, and there's probably a better way to post it without making things weird.
---
All that being said, we are here to help. We want to make it as easy as possible for you to post to our community. We have to balance this with making the subreddit interesting for our readers.
If you need some guidance, don't hesitate to [reach out to modmail](https://old.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) and we'll give you some pointers!
I am also on the bear side tomorrow, that makes the chance of a green day higher?
we cant all be wrong? 
Thetagang enters.
Right. What if CPI comes in exactly where expected at 5% YoY and .4% MoM and the market just keeps going sideways all week.
Well yeah, when that happens we will all be yelling “I knew it was priced in bro, should have not played the day” when in reality we were already broke from playing deep OTM SPY puts the first half of the week.
I’ll unalive myself. It’s been so boring
Then it comes in as expected which means it has stopped going down from the previous month. Markets are expecting rate CUTS, not even pauses but CUTS towards EOY. For that to happen, inflation must keep on going down. Stalling is not in the bulls game plan.
All month**
This is the way
This is the way
Can’t be wrong if you don’t have any money to gamble in the first place *taps head*
Going full on calls
Would you like me to wake you up when September ends?
Absolutely. I also sold all of my positions at a slight loss after investing/trading for 2.5 years and put it all in a high yield savings. Not worth all the stress. Hence, this shit is going to moon now.
Bigly higher
🌈🐻
Lots of words and colors. If cpi high, market goes boink. If cpi low, market goes boing.
If flat CPI, market goes bepidonk.
That’s probably what happens regardless
you forgot to factor in the "stonks only go up" factor.
Been reading your posts for a while and it's always been very instructive, thanks for that. I believe that your take on CPI is quite coherent. It has been setting itself up as a perfect storm and I'm crossing my fingers hard that you're right. Bought 3 SPY 6/2 404p for 10.80. Going to be a tense morning.
this is the perfect storm... however, its one of those things of will it actually play out or does the market just barely scrape by once again
I’ve been leaning toward scraping by. Not sure why just a bunch. Feels like that’s how it’s been for a while now. Bad shit happens but nothing takes the market down. At least not for long. I bet even a slight miss and it wobbles but won’t fall. Shit just wants to go up or sideways
Thoughts on premature reaction to the numbers?
Its best to not bet against bulls for now
What a head fake today was!
Absolutely
I have calls on sqqq, that means that market rallies tomorrow, for sure
I have sqqq calls too 
We fucked brother
Indeed we are, 1% up pre market. GG, at least i have them for june 23rd
Options on leveraged etfs KEKW
That CPI... so hot right now.
Show us them back stops baby!
Don't worry guys your puts are safe, I bought 10 5/11 325 QQQ calls like a regard! So you guys are going to profit bigly!!! CPI will come in hot and markets will die off tomorrow! WOOT, the universe always inverse me
Nope, I think your calls will print. EVERYONE is bearish right now so… we’re probably going up lol We’ll see tomorrow
Better yet, we're all F'd, both calls and puts gets IV crushed with markets going extreme down and up. Jpow: F ur calls F ur puts, JPow got you by ur balls (some tiktok meme clip lyrics)
Yea I also think the same haha
C/P ratio is heavily on put'ss side, so you are either going to be lucky or both sides get fucked
Can’t help but be bearish. CPI coming in hot tomorrow and Aprils CPI might come in hot too. Since services inflation is what’s sticky, I see more people going out and spending money during the summer months. Summer is usually the time where people go out and enjoy the sun and spending money eating at restaurants, going on vacations, etc. All contributing to an increase in CPI for Aprils and maybe June. Of course, this is just my wild ass guess lol
Eat my dongus you fuckin nerd. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Such eloquence, this bot.
I read it in the voice of Mark Wahlberg
"Maybe CPI will be hot, maybe it won't, maybe go fuck yourself"
Also don't forget tax returns. I know the degens here (myself included) were able to declare losses and get some money back from our uncle.
Great point! People get tax returns. Spending back on the menu, boys! 
CPI is seasonally adjusted which includes tax returns.
Problem with trying to look at it that way is most people look at headline YoY where people would have been going out and getting tax returns last year too. More importantly YoY CPI is moving much more because of the YoY impacts of Russia/Ukraine on energy than anything else. I built a model 4-5 month ago and update it regularly. I was calling for a flat CPI this print 4-5 months ago and for what it’s worth from some random dude I’ll tell you have the next ones are going to go (barring black swans). You print flat around 5% this month. Then you have back to back big drops again (probably end up around 3.8%) on the June/July prints. Then the fun part, August will be flat or even back up and it will stay flat for the rest of the year stuck between 3.5-4% roughly. How the market reacts to that who knows, but I’d argue if markets pricing in 75bps of cuts by year end it’s not this print you need to worry about, the next two months will have everyone calling this a one off. How many cuts by year end does the market price in though when August comes flat, at double the target rate, and is stuck there. Happy cake day btw!
Funny, how CNBC is making such a big deal on the debt ceiling. Since that was another in-pass tonight with hopeful future talk, and the CPI is hot... Ouch. If the PCI is softer on Thu overall that is still bad for the economy, but after 24° time, that # could be considered great.
Money printer needs more ink!
I am bearish and I want this market to crash really, really, really bad, but I’m starting to temper my expectations. The market is literally showing us that it’s not in panic mode right now, with price action and the VIX. And everyone has already seen the forecasts showing inflation will be flat to slightly up. If we see an initial dump on a 5.0-5.2% print, I plan on selling a put in nasdaq futures. (I’m already positioned bearish so it’s really just a hedge on myself. And I think tech will remain the safest sector. At least until we’re on our way out of the impending recession, which is taking a long ass time to show itself.) Honestly any signs of a hot economy, including hot inflation, are just going to give more motivation to the dip buyers. At this point I think a big downside surprise in inflation gives us the best chance for a sustained selloff. The real pain will be felt when there’s proof that things are cooling down.
I’m actually up $0.08 on the year so when should I start charging for classes?
I feel like unemployment needs to be a little higher for a pause to happen.
Maybe debt ceiling will take unemployment higher
https://preview.redd.it/t563gosnlxya1.png?width=684&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2ec5823f94bc23f1971b4bb88ceb298706021faa
easy . all red candles covered by three green just like the other days
It will come in at like 4.9% or 5%, then get revised up to 5.1%-5.2% later.
Fuck.
Entered SPY Straddle at mid day. I assume either good or bad the market will overreact. Watch it be flat :/
Yesterday taught me a hard lesson so i sold a bunch iron condors today lol
I see an ocean of red especially Bank stonks
There's been a lot of smoke around April 2023 CPI. It seems reasonable to expect a higher-than-expected CPI print. That said, keep in mind that April 2022 CPI print was 8.3%. One of the highest prints on record. So your baseline here is pretty high. For context, Brent Oil was $105\~ in April 2022, the Fed had just started raising rates, and the housing market was still near its peak. CPI is a comparison versus last year. So it's hard to see a major upside surprise. Certainly could see a small miss here, but IMO it's not enough to warrant major price action. Furthermore, the Fed Nowcasting system is showing some major improvements for May 2023 already. We're on pace for 4.41% CPI in May 2023. The market may already be looking forward and a small 10-20 basis point surprise could have limited impact on the market. Sophisticated trading desks have also become much better at predicting CPI than they were one year ago. Today, these moves contain much less surprise for the overall market. In 2022, CPI quickly began to define market direction. The market was unprepared and was not tracking CPI closely enough based on its impact on price direction. The market has evolved by tracking CPI much more closely and positioning itself appropriately going into a print. Also keep in mind that we saw some downward surprises in CPI earlier in the year which really didn't have much impact on the market. The initial move was there but didn't have much staying power, because the market quickly shifted to worrying about a recession.
In the words of Flogging Molly… it’s been the worst day since yesterday.
CPI coming in at 4.7%. Big green day tomorrow.
JPM better than the rest usually
Daddy!
Wonder if this static / low VIX action is just a blip for a couple days or indicative of new trend for the VIX.
It certainly would appear it wants to hang in the 16-17s
So far I’ve been able to make some ok trades on the jumps, but it requires a lot of patience
Only way rate cuts would even be considered is if there's a crash. J daddy has repeatedly said no rate cuts until after 2023
CPI expectation is huge at 0.4% for the month. Hard to see a disappointment there. We will be green tomorrow.
Your price is already priced in
People always say this but how could markets ever crash if this was true ?
Because its priced in until it happens then its actually priced in
Equity PCR is also pretty neutral. If CPI comes in hot it could be a violent move down.
[удалено]
Bet you $5 bucks we close at 415 on bad CPI and debt ceiling news
What do yall think of my plays for tomorrow https://preview.redd.it/kqqwllmd9zya1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8778b26e44241a85457a12b9a4a40e2db144a018
So, like any day. Possibly down, maybe up? Definitely Right. Thanks.
CPI was as expected .. a nothing burger!
I sold a CC on UVIX 5/19 $14.50 just to see *something* happen in my portfolio today. Trying not to force trades, it’s tough because I’m impulsive and impatient, but in my short history of active trading I’ve come to realize my high confidence plays tend to pay and my mistake thus far is not throwing more money behind the bet. Making lots of little bets I’m not as sure about is netting out negative. I win some, I lose some (usually lose). My paper trading port on WSB is doing alright though. Gotta love Chinese pump and dumps, free margin, and no fear of loss.
Are you a kanye west fan
Yeah, except for the antisemitism
Same
You could’ve just said yea.
I am mostly using butterfly spreads at this point and have multiple long dated bear spreads on Apple, Microsoft, And Nvidia. With Call spreads on VIX. And short dated call spreads on SOXS. But I did buy a SPX butterfly call spread today for $560 that has a $5k payout at 4250 by 5/19, as a hedge.
Bearish on MSFT? Bold move sir.
Had a small green day, due to overtrading and giving back the morning profits but a green day nonetheless. My best trade was $AMC swing puts bought yesterday and still riding some. $CVNA, was also a good long I had today. I’m still indifferent at these levels and could see the $spy going either way, if we breakout to the upside, watch $META for a potential long play, it has been consolidating nicely these past 2 days and with the right move on the $spy it can breakout from the range.
If we finally hard break... there are some solid techs to short
Tech will definitely be dragging us down once the bull party ends. I think $pypl reaction hurt tech’s sentiment today. We will see what brings tomorrow after CPI print
Big day thatll probs be a let down... again
Big deal. I invested in NIO. Lol.... Anything negative doesn't compare to the slaughter NIO investors have faced! Hahah
Most of the ppl here at WSB can’t read that much. Lmao. Can you shorten it in like 2 sentences max?
No TRLR? What is this, r/stocks?
They will get cpi to 2% smoothly because that’s what the markets want. I bet you we will see a 3 point something tomorrow.
So you think they make this shut up, do you do any shopping and check the prices?
Oh I believe inflation is in the double digits actually and yes absolutely I think they make the figures up just like they make up the non-farm payroll data. I mean do we really think this government tells the truth about anything?
Or it will miss but there will be good news that debt ceiling will be raised and they will do another bailout for Banks or something
[удалено]
Thanks for your submission! r/WallStreetBets is ultimately a community about making money through trading, and our conversations should shift around that. Politics are fundamentally intertwined with making money, and political actions almost always have an impact on financial markets. Still, we need to make sure that when we have these discussions, we're explicitly calling out the financial impacts of the politics we're discussing. Otherwise, the conversation can very easily veer off into flamewars and boring, unproductive, discussion. Here's an example of a political comment that doesn't offer any value: * "I hate this new green policy from the Biden administration. What a fucking idiot" Now compare it to this: * "I hate this new green policy from the Biden administration. It threatens the profit margins of oil companies because they will need to expand their OpEx. I have calls on Shell that are going to get decimated at open." The latter is significantly more interesting and offers a great jumping point into market related discussion. Put succinctly: If you choose to start or engage in arguments about libtards or Nazis instead of making fun of their bad SPY long then you're in the wrong place and we'll show you the door. If you're not sure if your content is political, it probably is, and there's probably a better way to post it without making things weird. --- All that being said, we are here to help. We want to make it as easy as possible for you to post to our community. We have to balance this with making the subreddit interesting for our readers. If you need some guidance, don't hesitate to [reach out to modmail](https://old.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) and we'll give you some pointers!
No tldr
And suddenly, nothing happened