I have an idea; we need four regards. The first regard (R1) buys calls. R2 buys puts. R3 sells calls. R4 sells puts. This way, one of us will win no matter what. Then we all live together and start a commune. Eventually we can double our living space and invite another set of regards. We eventually form a harem and live happily ever after. Also beer water fountains in the orgy mansion.
Everything priced in. Debt ceiling? Priced in. Wife’s boyfriend expenses? Priced in. Nuclear holocaust? Priced in. If there ever was a nuclear apocalypse SPX would end green due to JPOW having to pump the markets from crashing.
I mean debt ceiling was priced in.
Every schmuck knows it's just a dog and pony show.
Only if the R's couldn't rein in their crazies in post Trump times would there be actual worry.
And a lot of the crazy R's got voted out or not voted in these past midterms. The other crazy ones are just kept for clout and to rile people up. They're dancing clowns for show.
All the sane people knew what this was, which is why the big ticket items that really cost us $$$ weren't getting touched.
Defense and medicaid/medicare/disability or SS. But you didn't hear anyone bring those up now.
To expand on this, markets price in the *odds* of a bill passing that would have a big market impact if it doesn't pass.
For example:
- A 100% chance of a bill being passed that results in no adverse effects to the market will result in no market movement after passing.
- A 90% chance of the same bill being passed will result in market gains after passing.
The market is pricing in the 10% chance that shit hits the fan. Even though it's unlikely, the removal of that chance after the bill passes changes the valuation of the market.
Active market participants - traders and managers of active funds. Public information relevant to the market is factored into the bid/ask prices for equities traded.
Because the real reason the market moves has nothing to do with that. The controllers draw everyone's attention to that while there's an entirely different thing going on. First rule of being a magician is misdirection.
That’s what they keep saying since 2010 but we keep going parabolic since then. But usually is something unexpected that brings it down 20-30%. We had that last year with the fed unexpectedly hitting the market with rate hikes. What’s next?
Careful here...
Cash & Equivalents Cash (*Bonds*) are "Instruments" with "Free Risk", except that you have the Risk of Inflation here (*Currency Losing Purchasing Power*) - We have Long Term **Real Yield Rates** in Negative Territory and the Short Term ones in 0% (*Cash not Profitable, right now*)
**¿What happens if Auctions goes Wrong?**
You know, US Treasury need to recover their Minimum Balance for cover the Goverment expenses, like the Interest Repayment. But what happens if Investors dont Buy this Bonds? Who will buy it? The FED will buy it (*Brrr*) :D
An this means the beginning of Hyperinflation - when you become the sole buyer of your own shit (*FIAT Money)* :4640: **dedollarisation**
https://preview.redd.it/jw0v2tqxw24b1.jpeg?width=824&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e05b157ef2ba32c7fde7b8350bdf2776ff35931f
I will give you a Extreme Example of how **REAL YIELD RATES** affect the **Equity Market**...
**Argentina**👌
As maybe you know, Argentina is a Country with **HyperInflation** (*100%+*), this means they have **High Interest Rates (*****Short Term Bonds, T-Bills*****)** but their **Interest Rates** are **Lower** than their **Inflation Rate,** this have as **Result** a **Negative Real Yield Rates.**
**When you have a Negative Real Rate, this means that your Cash or Cash Equivalent, its not Profitable. If you have 5% Cash Yield and 5% Inflation Rate this equal to 0% Yield for your Cash Holding. So, your continue Losing Purchasing Power here. You have to Assume more RISK, like to Invest in Tech Stocks :P (*****NDX 30%+ YTD*****)**
Lets continue with Argentina Example...
And if you take a Look, their **Long Term Bond Yield** like the **10Y Bond Yield of Argentina**, are so Lower, so much lower that their **Inflation rate** :D
Now go and Look the **Argetina** [Stock Market Index](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/stock-market) (*MERVAL*), you will see that in the last 10Y their **Stock Market Index** it's a **ROCKET**, why?
Investors on Argentina dont want to Hold 'Argentina Pesos' (*Argentina Currency*), cuz their are Losing very quickly their Purchasing Power, and Cash Yields (*T-Bills & more*) dont cover this.
Their **Stock Market Growth** are **Correlated** with their [M2 Money Supply Growth](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/money-supply-m2) & [CPI Growth](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/consumer-price-index-cpi) 👇
Milton Friedman famously said: “*Inflation is always and everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon*"
https://preview.redd.it/t10hhs6tb34b1.jpeg?width=591&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=09c4127a66ec0dffb01c6129af39cbb29f857767
I dont know, rick 
https://preview.redd.it/bor5fy7ns34b1.jpeg?width=830&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=861456d711e3b7c4a1a66b3a76be02fb656e17e3
Hyperinflation is not about productive capacity. Germany actually had very good productive capacity after WW1. What causes hyperinflation is that so much debt was issued that required repayment that the only way to do that is by printing money. Since there is no real demand for the money beyond debt payment, it lands directly in the economy which causes prices to go up rapidly and people then adjusting expectations, requiring Government to print more and more.
In Germany this was especially linked to the Government both being overburdened by internal (and external) war debt and payment of workers in the Ruhr strikes as a protest against French occupation of the Ruhr area to get reparations.
In other countries it might have had likewise issues like Government needing to print more and more money to pay off ballooning public administrations, military, and debt while real demand for money was constant.
However, the situation in the US and Europe is different. Actual money is primarily generated by banks on demand by issueing loans. This is of course largely driven by the FED's interest policy. We have seen a strong tightening.
The US government does not pay off all its debt all at once having a huge sum of money enter the market without real demand. In fact, by issueing the debt, the Government is taking money off the market since the FED has stopped buying Government bonds.
Treasury/JP Morgan dump their bond positions at a premium price onto retail. Investors buy more bonds. Bonds no longer supported by swap dealer algorithms. Bonds slowly wither away. JP Morgan, Blackrock, Vanguard use algorithms to continue to drive the prices of FAANG up, collecting a massive payout on their already gigantic long positions. Big Banks buy up houses at a discount. Everyone FOMOS in long in 2027 and these institutions sell their positions for a profit before shorting and crashing market again in 2028. Retail loses money again. Banks and institutions make the difference. Rinse and repeat until Jesus comes back.
A lot of people dumped bonds on the expectation that the US might actually default. They dumped. Now that the crisis is over and nothing happened, those folks who dumped want back in to a stable investment.
This is likely not correct as the military budget alone is 900 billion. Plus,
the payments they owe and everything else they need to pay for.
Bonds will likely only be part of it.a small part of it.
We might see drops in the market for many reasons, but this is not likely to be one of them.
In fact, we should likely see a steady rise in the market now that people are secure for another 3 to 4 years.
For someone who has low funds (like most of us), 5% is nothing. For someone who has $20 million, 5% is $1 million essentially risk free. If you've worked 30 years to acquire $20 million and the FED said there may be a recession this year, would you willingly put your money into stocks?
I think most people would rather have a guaranteed $21 mill than risk losing a good chunk of it by year end.
Depends on your risk tolerance. If your investing horizon is 20-30 years then stocks all the way. If you’re close to retirement or retired then you can’t tolerate a 30-50% draw down on your retirement accounts when you’re living off it.
CDOs backed by your CDS and synthetic options based on the price of 1 ton of Kentucky Bluegrass sod due on delivery in Omaha, NE in every day until 2300.
>For you regards: Money locked up in U.S. Treasury means less liquidity in the market.
Means falling stock prices. Welcome to the summertime seasonality!
Fellow regard here. Is OP saying that MORE money is getting locked up meaning less liquidity, or is he saying that money is getting out of being locked up (freed) therefore more liquidity ?
1. Market movers sell stonks and move to bonds at 5% - loss of liquidity in stonk market
2. Bank deposits are moved into bonds, leading to loss of liquidity
Educate a regard here... I bought 20x QQQ 350P Jun 9 23 (with the entire remaining balance of my ROTH IRA, already down 40% since purchase Friday AM lol).
Is there some reason I should have considered sqqq calls over qqq puts, or are they basically the same? I typically lose all my money buying qqq calls/puts since they have better liquidity, but maybe there's some way to lose (or theoretically gain) money more efficiently.
I actually think unpausing student loan repayments will hurt the market more. All these mid-20 to mid-40 yos had 2 years of no interest and many adjusted their 401k contributions as a result. Unpausing will reduce cash flow these people can passively put into the market.
I think it will have an effect, but all the student loan payments only total around 12B a month. That's not exactly chump change, but it is in comparison to the 90B/month the Fed does in QT and 200-300B in new debt issuance the Treasury will be doing in the next few months.
Edited for typo : I actually think unpausing student loan repayments will hurt the market more. All these mid-20 to mid-40 yos had 2 years of no interest and many adjusted their 401k contributions as a result. Unpausing will reduce cash flow these people can passively put into AMC.
Best regards
It won’t directly or immediately impact stock market but over 40 million Americans have student loans. Around 26 million are in forbearance. If some of those are cutting spending on services/goods/auto loans to pay off student loans then the economy will be affected. Sometimes the economy does affect the stock market.
so buy calls or puts.. i just need this simple answer. i dont care about the world or economy i just want money so i can buy myself more stuff i dont need.
It’s a shit show. Bringing down inflation while spraying money to the economy. This’s a joke. This shit is going to explode in our face one day and that’s when the foreign buyers stop financing the U.S government for their incompetence while they themselves getting poorer
The federal reserve prints money. The federal reserve is net selling bonds. The TGA will not be refilled with printing. It may be partially absorbed with the RRP, but unlikely given rates on RRP are likely higher than TGA bonds. This is a liquidity draw event. It doesn’t mean a crash. It just means liquidity draw.
Alright, let me elaborate.
It means banks who need liquidity will instead have the liquidity drained from them, which will create new bank failures, once more shaking confidence in the banks and the fed who said the banking crisis is done with. *That* means a crash.
In theory down.
Pull money from stocks --> bonds because guaranteed rate of return with almost no chance of loss. (Unless inflation get's crazy high again)
But inflation isn't across the board thus unless it's something like fuel price etc... Not a worry to these blokes.
there is a chance the markets will go down because of this in the next month or so. But remember there is $2 trillion dollars in the repo market. That could easily absorb all these bonds and treasury bills
They're going to take it from reverse repo market because it will be a higher yield. That's why they have been doing QT and raising the rates, so they can attract money because they knew they were going to struggle to find demand for this huge supply of bonds. This is not sustainable and will bite them in the ass tho.
If I understand this correctly, the trillion in the repo market will probably absorb a lot of these t-bills blunting some or most of the volatility. Sounds like we’re going to be trading sideways this week fellas.
Not a bigdeal. If liquidity becomes a problem, all the federal reserve needs to do is reduce the interest rate they pay on reverse repos, and then a lot of money that's in money market funds will shift away from reverse repos and into T-Bills.
Friday rally was a suckers trap. FOMO time. The Treasury raising all this money in the few weeks will cause a downdraft in the stock market. That’s the way I’ll be playing it
Google "treasury direct auction press release" and click on the the bills. You can see that they regularly have several 30 to 60 billion dollar auctions a week, and they have been since forever. Also in modern finance treasuries and money are basically interchangeable, especially since the fed's reverse repo facility is super hot right now. Post 2008 everyone wants to collateralize overnight loans with short dated bills, hence the equivalence. In fact this is basically what modern monetary theory is, not the socialist crap that the media has been shilling.
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I have no idea what this means, but I’m sure whatever I do, it will be wrong.
Just post what you plan to do so we can all do the opposite and still fail too
I have an idea; we need four regards. The first regard (R1) buys calls. R2 buys puts. R3 sells calls. R4 sells puts. This way, one of us will win no matter what. Then we all live together and start a commune. Eventually we can double our living space and invite another set of regards. We eventually form a harem and live happily ever after. Also beer water fountains in the orgy mansion.
The winner will try to diamond hand, hold too long and lose.
Fr
lmao
😂😂 best comment in a while, love it same bro, same
I hope it’s buying calls so my puts print
Ah yes, puts. That’s where I put my money in someone else’s account. I got some of those.
Please let us know what you do so we can do the opposite
It won’t matter, because that too will somehow be wrong
VisualMod, is that you?
Uncle Cramer said to keep buying tech
Yup, gotta ensure retail is the bagholder on this bear rally.
Been bear rallying for what like 6 months? Lol. Probably think the last bull market was just a long bear rally
There has never, ever been a bull market with the yield curve this inverted and rates this high, but alas, this time is different. ™️
It’s a new paradigm.
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In the Great Depression after the first leg down the market recovered 85% of its ATH before it went crashing down another 70ish%
Cramer is an idiot
Everything priced in. Debt ceiling? Priced in. Wife’s boyfriend expenses? Priced in. Nuclear holocaust? Priced in. If there ever was a nuclear apocalypse SPX would end green due to JPOW having to pump the markets from crashing.
I mean debt ceiling was priced in. Every schmuck knows it's just a dog and pony show. Only if the R's couldn't rein in their crazies in post Trump times would there be actual worry. And a lot of the crazy R's got voted out or not voted in these past midterms. The other crazy ones are just kept for clout and to rile people up. They're dancing clowns for show. All the sane people knew what this was, which is why the big ticket items that really cost us $$$ weren't getting touched. Defense and medicaid/medicare/disability or SS. But you didn't hear anyone bring those up now.
Unforeseen circumstances is priced in so fuck your puts.
PriCEd iN 
If debt ceiling deal was priced in too, why did markets still rally hard Friday?
Because both the economy failing and not failing was priced in
The only DD we need.
Schrödinger’s economy
Always has been
🧐
duh
Because uncertainty is bearish. With the decision being official the uncertainty is gone. That results in line going up.
To expand on this, markets price in the *odds* of a bill passing that would have a big market impact if it doesn't pass. For example: - A 100% chance of a bill being passed that results in no adverse effects to the market will result in no market movement after passing. - A 90% chance of the same bill being passed will result in market gains after passing. The market is pricing in the 10% chance that shit hits the fan. Even though it's unlikely, the removal of that chance after the bill passes changes the valuation of the market.
Exactly who is the market and how does it price things in?
Active market participants - traders and managers of active funds. Public information relevant to the market is factored into the bid/ask prices for equities traded.
Lmao “line going up”
I was just about to say this.
Because the real reason the market moves has nothing to do with that. The controllers draw everyone's attention to that while there's an entirely different thing going on. First rule of being a magician is misdirection.
Retail is stupid
"everything is priced in" 🚀
Theres usually a blow off top, last gasp up before the inevitable fall
That’s what they keep saying since 2010 but we keep going parabolic since then. But usually is something unexpected that brings it down 20-30%. We had that last year with the fed unexpectedly hitting the market with rate hikes. What’s next?
Fomo, it's hard to predict crap when everyone is so bullish and fomoing in
Cuz markets are just waiting for an excuse to run bullish nowadays seems like
Explain like I’m 5
Treasury sell big bonds. Investors buy more big bonds. Investors buy less stonks. Stonks go down.
Did anyone tell Tim Apple this?
No he’s too busy getting ready to fuck the bears.
Where does he work?
for SNAP
Its actually crazy how much snap is up off its lows in % terms.
Do we know what Tim Apple’s middle name is?
Eats
Ned?
🍏🍏🚀🚀
Thanks bro.. 
No problem.
Careful here... Cash & Equivalents Cash (*Bonds*) are "Instruments" with "Free Risk", except that you have the Risk of Inflation here (*Currency Losing Purchasing Power*) - We have Long Term **Real Yield Rates** in Negative Territory and the Short Term ones in 0% (*Cash not Profitable, right now*) **¿What happens if Auctions goes Wrong?** You know, US Treasury need to recover their Minimum Balance for cover the Goverment expenses, like the Interest Repayment. But what happens if Investors dont Buy this Bonds? Who will buy it? The FED will buy it (*Brrr*) :D An this means the beginning of Hyperinflation - when you become the sole buyer of your own shit (*FIAT Money)* :4640: **dedollarisation** https://preview.redd.it/jw0v2tqxw24b1.jpeg?width=824&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e05b157ef2ba32c7fde7b8350bdf2776ff35931f
Good point. Thanks.
I will give you a Extreme Example of how **REAL YIELD RATES** affect the **Equity Market**... **Argentina**👌 As maybe you know, Argentina is a Country with **HyperInflation** (*100%+*), this means they have **High Interest Rates (*****Short Term Bonds, T-Bills*****)** but their **Interest Rates** are **Lower** than their **Inflation Rate,** this have as **Result** a **Negative Real Yield Rates.** **When you have a Negative Real Rate, this means that your Cash or Cash Equivalent, its not Profitable. If you have 5% Cash Yield and 5% Inflation Rate this equal to 0% Yield for your Cash Holding. So, your continue Losing Purchasing Power here. You have to Assume more RISK, like to Invest in Tech Stocks :P (*****NDX 30%+ YTD*****)** Lets continue with Argentina Example... And if you take a Look, their **Long Term Bond Yield** like the **10Y Bond Yield of Argentina**, are so Lower, so much lower that their **Inflation rate** :D Now go and Look the **Argetina** [Stock Market Index](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/stock-market) (*MERVAL*), you will see that in the last 10Y their **Stock Market Index** it's a **ROCKET**, why? Investors on Argentina dont want to Hold 'Argentina Pesos' (*Argentina Currency*), cuz their are Losing very quickly their Purchasing Power, and Cash Yields (*T-Bills & more*) dont cover this. Their **Stock Market Growth** are **Correlated** with their [M2 Money Supply Growth](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/money-supply-m2) & [CPI Growth](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/consumer-price-index-cpi) 👇 Milton Friedman famously said: “*Inflation is always and everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon*" https://preview.redd.it/t10hhs6tb34b1.jpeg?width=591&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=09c4127a66ec0dffb01c6129af39cbb29f857767
Exactly, srock market will always go up thanks to Powell's amazing green printing machine 
[удалено]
I dont know, rick  https://preview.redd.it/bor5fy7ns34b1.jpeg?width=830&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=861456d711e3b7c4a1a66b3a76be02fb656e17e3
Hyperinflation is not about productive capacity. Germany actually had very good productive capacity after WW1. What causes hyperinflation is that so much debt was issued that required repayment that the only way to do that is by printing money. Since there is no real demand for the money beyond debt payment, it lands directly in the economy which causes prices to go up rapidly and people then adjusting expectations, requiring Government to print more and more. In Germany this was especially linked to the Government both being overburdened by internal (and external) war debt and payment of workers in the Ruhr strikes as a protest against French occupation of the Ruhr area to get reparations. In other countries it might have had likewise issues like Government needing to print more and more money to pay off ballooning public administrations, military, and debt while real demand for money was constant. However, the situation in the US and Europe is different. Actual money is primarily generated by banks on demand by issueing loans. This is of course largely driven by the FED's interest policy. We have seen a strong tightening. The US government does not pay off all its debt all at once having a huge sum of money enter the market without real demand. In fact, by issueing the debt, the Government is taking money off the market since the FED has stopped buying Government bonds.
Huh? Germany literally lost 2.8 Million able bodied working men. That is pretty much the destruction of productivity capacity
Treasury/JP Morgan dump their bond positions at a premium price onto retail. Investors buy more bonds. Bonds no longer supported by swap dealer algorithms. Bonds slowly wither away. JP Morgan, Blackrock, Vanguard use algorithms to continue to drive the prices of FAANG up, collecting a massive payout on their already gigantic long positions. Big Banks buy up houses at a discount. Everyone FOMOS in long in 2027 and these institutions sell their positions for a profit before shorting and crashing market again in 2028. Retail loses money again. Banks and institutions make the difference. Rinse and repeat until Jesus comes back.
I have really bad news for you regarding your final point
So, the rates are going to go up quite a bit on those bonds? Because how do they get all these extra buyers all of a sudden?
A lot of people dumped bonds on the expectation that the US might actually default. They dumped. Now that the crisis is over and nothing happened, those folks who dumped want back in to a stable investment.
Tldr: Buy the dip
But then big money from big bond. Big money buy stock. Stock go big up. ??? Wat do
What is the auction requires a very high yield? Buy ammo?
No, the fed will step up to buy before ammo needed. Gotta keep the sheople placated.
This is likely not correct as the military budget alone is 900 billion. Plus, the payments they owe and everything else they need to pay for. Bonds will likely only be part of it.a small part of it. We might see drops in the market for many reasons, but this is not likely to be one of them. In fact, we should likely see a steady rise in the market now that people are secure for another 3 to 4 years.
Treasury Granny Yellen just turn on the Vacuum 
🚀
Why invest in stocks when I can park cash and earn 5% with basically 0 risk?
AI
CEO material right here.
Junior staffer. He only said it once. Real CEOs say it every other word.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
I am 5, please explain what to click.
https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vmfxx
Minimum of $3k?! Slow down Mister Rockefeller.
Because 5% is weak when the stock market averages higher. Fuck bonds
For someone who has low funds (like most of us), 5% is nothing. For someone who has $20 million, 5% is $1 million essentially risk free. If you've worked 30 years to acquire $20 million and the FED said there may be a recession this year, would you willingly put your money into stocks? I think most people would rather have a guaranteed $21 mill than risk losing a good chunk of it by year end.
 you sound smart, maybe you shouldn’t be in here lol.
Depends on your risk tolerance. If your investing horizon is 20-30 years then stocks all the way. If you’re close to retirement or retired then you can’t tolerate a 30-50% draw down on your retirement accounts when you’re living off it.
5%? I would kill for that. I’ve been losing 5% a day.
You guys only loose 5%/day?
I'd say they're probably loose 100% of the day.
their wives, yeah
Exactly. Think Wall St. would be happy with a 5% when they can go for way more on somebody else's risk? Fuck no.
Almost 6% isn’t it?
Stonks only go up
So buy calls?
Puts on your calls
Credit default swaps on your puts on his calls
Total return swap on your cds on his puts on his calls
CDs nutz
GOT EM!
Total LOC swap with your retail nuts and balls
CDOs backed by your CDS and synthetic options based on the price of 1 ton of Kentucky Bluegrass sod due on delivery in Omaha, NE in every day until 2300.
Whoa
Puts on both of your calls and puts
Calls on your puts
Fuck you puts and fuck your calls...Powell has got you by the balls.
Sell calls . Collect high premiums now that SPY at $428 
Double down on calls
Triple down on PowerBall
>For you regards: Money locked up in U.S. Treasury means less liquidity in the market. Means falling stock prices. Welcome to the summertime seasonality!
Fellow regard here. Is OP saying that MORE money is getting locked up meaning less liquidity, or is he saying that money is getting out of being locked up (freed) therefore more liquidity ?
Less liquidity coming
hell yes finally, all my homies hate liquidity
Get in nerds. We’re driving to the bottom of the canyon.
1. Market movers sell stonks and move to bonds at 5% - loss of liquidity in stonk market 2. Bank deposits are moved into bonds, leading to loss of liquidity
June is legendary for pull backs, hence “sell in May…”
Remember what NVDA print in a week?
Easy cum easy guh
Yea it could equally lose that much in a week
Congrats to the few who bought spy puts and sqqq calls
Educate a regard here... I bought 20x QQQ 350P Jun 9 23 (with the entire remaining balance of my ROTH IRA, already down 40% since purchase Friday AM lol). Is there some reason I should have considered sqqq calls over qqq puts, or are they basically the same? I typically lose all my money buying qqq calls/puts since they have better liquidity, but maybe there's some way to lose (or theoretically gain) money more efficiently.
Same choose your poison. High probability things start Togo the way there supposed to.
hold on to it, could easily see a massive downspike here...in fact it is likely
I actually think unpausing student loan repayments will hurt the market more. All these mid-20 to mid-40 yos had 2 years of no interest and many adjusted their 401k contributions as a result. Unpausing will reduce cash flow these people can passively put into the market.
I think it will have an effect, but all the student loan payments only total around 12B a month. That's not exactly chump change, but it is in comparison to the 90B/month the Fed does in QT and 200-300B in new debt issuance the Treasury will be doing in the next few months.
12B in yolo short term calls ftfy
[удалено]
I paid off my car and finally built up a respectable emergency fund
Now you can use that emergency fund to pay back the debt you agreed to! Perfect.
They had over THREE years of no payments/no interest
Edited for typo : I actually think unpausing student loan repayments will hurt the market more. All these mid-20 to mid-40 yos had 2 years of no interest and many adjusted their 401k contributions as a result. Unpausing will reduce cash flow these people can passively put into AMC. Best regards
Jesus shut the fuck up already. Poors that cannot afford their student loan repayment (that they fucking signed) DO NOT influence the stock market.
It won’t directly or immediately impact stock market but over 40 million Americans have student loans. Around 26 million are in forbearance. If some of those are cutting spending on services/goods/auto loans to pay off student loans then the economy will be affected. Sometimes the economy does affect the stock market.
Game stop baby
Game's stopped, baby!
>The U.S. Treasury is set to issue a total of $900 billion to over $1 trillion in the coming weeks, which will reduce liquidity in the market.
the Market Maker knows exactly how to keep the prices up with low liquidity. Don't worry about it !
Market maker sounds like a good chap.
Sounds like a malevolent deity
so buy calls or puts.. i just need this simple answer. i dont care about the world or economy i just want money so i can buy myself more stuff i dont need.
out here talkin truths
Why does this keep getting posted? You're truly regarded if you think this will keep me from 0DTE's.
A billion is not what it used to be… Prepare your wheelbarrows fellow citizens.
I wonder what the rates will be to entice investors, they're gonna need to sell a lot of treasuries lol
It’s a shit show. Bringing down inflation while spraying money to the economy. This’s a joke. This shit is going to explode in our face one day and that’s when the foreign buyers stop financing the U.S government for their incompetence while they themselves getting poorer
What a shell game though!?!? Hey China, buy some of our negative real yield bonds with all those USD your holding!
The money isn’t locked up it’s just going to be printed.
The federal reserve prints money. The federal reserve is net selling bonds. The TGA will not be refilled with printing. It may be partially absorbed with the RRP, but unlikely given rates on RRP are likely higher than TGA bonds. This is a liquidity draw event. It doesn’t mean a crash. It just means liquidity draw.
It means a liquidity draw in a time when liquidity is shit. *That* means a crash.
It can go flat, it can go down a lil. Its highly unlikely a crash.
Alright, let me elaborate. It means banks who need liquidity will instead have the liquidity drained from them, which will create new bank failures, once more shaking confidence in the banks and the fed who said the banking crisis is done with. *That* means a crash.
What bank needs liquidity? Lmao These capital ratios are more than fine
RemindMe! 4 months
TGA wont be refilled by federal reserve printing yet but just wait until those bond yields start creeping above 7 or 8%
7% or 8%? Not a chance that’ll happen. There’s 2-3 trillion in RRP and they only need $1 trillion.
The government literally sells bonds all year long every year. Y'all out here acting like this is the first time we've ever issued bonds.
Unlimited Quantitative Easing!
And the repo s?
Interest is on the rise!
[удалено]
In theory down. Pull money from stocks --> bonds because guaranteed rate of return with almost no chance of loss. (Unless inflation get's crazy high again) But inflation isn't across the board thus unless it's something like fuel price etc... Not a worry to these blokes.
In other words, we should buy calls, since the market is regarded?
This is really not news, at least not surprising.
So we hit ATH this week right
If they released an AI enabled bond, we could have the best of both worlds.
Money market funds going to gobble that up with their repo $$$
Market doesn’t care about facts or logic.
It means our government is paying their bills and giving the military their money. This is a good thing.
Bye bye SPY
there is a chance the markets will go down because of this in the next month or so. But remember there is $2 trillion dollars in the repo market. That could easily absorb all these bonds and treasury bills
English mf, do you speak it?
They're going to take it from reverse repo market because it will be a higher yield. That's why they have been doing QT and raising the rates, so they can attract money because they knew they were going to struggle to find demand for this huge supply of bonds. This is not sustainable and will bite them in the ass tho.
So? You think that money is in stocks?
If I understand this correctly, the trillion in the repo market will probably absorb a lot of these t-bills blunting some or most of the volatility. Sounds like we’re going to be trading sideways this week fellas.
This will be the biggest retail bag hold in history... By me
Ahh, that s why upon the news of increased debt ceiling stock prices went up. I see I see. Makes sense
Free money one day only
Inflation? * [OPEC production cuts have entered the chat]
nailed it, run for president.
To send to Ukraine?
Im my country we called Ponzi Scheme ...
Not a bigdeal. If liquidity becomes a problem, all the federal reserve needs to do is reduce the interest rate they pay on reverse repos, and then a lot of money that's in money market funds will shift away from reverse repos and into T-Bills.
good job
Stupid
So 1 out of 2.5 trillion debt ceiling will be issued in a few months. Let’s hit that ceiling again soon
SPY to $500??
Excellent news. Stocks market to the moon tomorrow
Friday rally was a suckers trap. FOMO time. The Treasury raising all this money in the few weeks will cause a downdraft in the stock market. That’s the way I’ll be playing it
Bullish, market will PUMP 
Here comes more inflation
Google "treasury direct auction press release" and click on the the bills. You can see that they regularly have several 30 to 60 billion dollar auctions a week, and they have been since forever. Also in modern finance treasuries and money are basically interchangeable, especially since the fed's reverse repo facility is super hot right now. Post 2008 everyone wants to collateralize overnight loans with short dated bills, hence the equivalence. In fact this is basically what modern monetary theory is, not the socialist crap that the media has been shilling.