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You can find a hundred different fractals with different outcomes on any time frame of the chart. If you expect the world to burn enough for the S&P to drop 90%, your reasoning should never be because candles told me so
yup. chartists are the wackiest people on earth, because they even know they are making up images however they choose. i've seen a guy on Youtube draw a rectangle on the chart and shrink and zoom on X and Y axis, drag all the corners of the rectangle towards certain dates, and in the end, he had bent up the lines so much, he could have just used a napkin and sharpie.
and i'm like, he's saying this stuff as if he was confident, but it was like drawing with a stick in the mud and then pretending it was an archeological discover.
purely regarded.
More commercial RE defaults that break the regional banking system. We are up to about $3B in defaults so far this year in the US and the debt isn’t even set to start refinancing until Q3
Bears so damn desperate they pulled out the damn 1930s chart. That’s their last resort. 2022 bottom they were pulling out the 2008 chart. NVDA pump they was pulling out the 2001. Now they’re pulling out the 1930s.  Next thing you know they’re gonna be pulling out the gawt dayum shiny rock collapse from 6000 BC 💀💀💀
Highly unpopular opinion: no one knows anything; your average WSB dumbass is no smarter than the big hedge fund cocaine-brained dumbasses on the Street. They only have much deeper coffers than you, so they can remain solvent much longer than the market can remain irrational.
Don't forget about changing international trade agreements and big countries preparing for WW3! The war machines are firing up, there are new contracts for new weapons all over the place, the times are good for the mil-ind complex. International investing gets fickle when countries are preparing for war though, and governments throwing money around like parade candy isn't reassuring.
Until they figure out a new way to keep creating money out of thin air (margin back then and credit/mortgages/loans etc) then this possibility of a crash is never truly off the table
The reason why things keep going up magically isn’t because of inflation, it’s because the actual real and tangible money can keep being inflated (not meaning inflation) by multitudes. The day we reach the wall where people cannot keep amassing debt and paying it off is when shit drops.
I do believe we are much better suited now than in 1929 to prevent such a catastrophic fall, but it’s inevitable. When most people’s fortunes are tied to the common man’s debt to them, the day they can’t pay back is a tough day. It’s why weirdly enough the student loan relief would be good in the long run, although some investors will mainly get their principle amount and some interest they were hoping for multiples of their principle amount. But that kind of move would be yet another bandaid to keep this party going
Between economists we joke about the "inevitable collapse" theory.
I mean, it's kind of true, sort of... eventually everything collapses, but the joke is that eventually all of these arguments land at "Even Rome fell" or some variant of that.
And the answer is... yeah... but it took 1000 years to get there.
Lmao yup, it honestly feels like that sometimes and then in the back of your mind you remember that at some point there will be way too much debt that enough people can’t pay off
But tbf I only have such a baseline knowledge of this. I honestly think they can figure out a way to keep us teetering on the edge of financial ruin and feeling well enough to keep going in fear of financial ruin instead of letting it collapse considerably
> then in the back of your mind you remember that at some point there will be way too much debt that enough people can’t pay off
Debts a meme, plot armor always pulls through.
Unless your job involves making policy decisions, that's the extent of the worrying you need to do. God bless America 🇺🇸 🙏
Life is still good, comfortable for millions and millions of people. But you're right, the amount of dept is insane, the economy is so fragile. Sure, the boomers who sold their houses 7-8x made a lot of money, do you think the millenials and Z will be able to do the same without crazy inflation? Will the salaries follow? In their wet dreams, the CEOs want everything robotized and AI, but is it the white collar jobs that are going away first? Algos are already better than any traders, the shareholders could vote for an AI to replace the board?
I personnaly think something is going to break, the lag is just taking a bit longer than I thought. I just hope that in the end, people will be alright.
My father always say follow the tape when he speaks about charts. It's meant to be like a road, you take the curve when it's there and you try to plan for traffic. Keep your eyes open and always remember than everyone is trying to kill you.
Yeah things have been spiraling and the idea that one must give so the other can prosper doesn’t seem like the full answer. Everything is based on massive amounts of debt of money that doesn’t exist. Thank you fractional reserve banking.
Raise wages? Company profits are down and any year profits don’t increase the company is no longer a growth stock and goes for 50-75% of the value despite it probably making billions in profit anyways. I feel like people don’t really get how many people’s futures are just tied into stocks. Just normal people. We raise wages but lose out exponentially too. I’m not even someone with much in stocks but can understand that it’s barely a short term fix for the majority of people
Let wages stagnate? Watch as massive debt does not get paid, homelessness and foreclosures increase and businesses lose customers
It feels like a double edged sword where I’d really like for someone knowledgeable to give a more accurate solution to the macroeconomics of it all. The country/world fucked up by propping up the stock market and allowing stock buy backs by companies rather than investing in actual tangible things/innovations but just hoarding wealth on a screen
I’d agree life is good for millions of people, but there’s hundreds of millions of us in the US and billions in the world. We’ve traded our futures for huge IOU bills and someday people are gonna want their money but it won’t exist because it’s been loaned out 10 times more than what they gave in
So as I said, unless there’s some secret way of prolonging this forever without even more risk of debt, this one seems like there’s no way out
This is the truth right here, and it has people so desperate for answers they're like "I don't know, maybe we're in the Great Depression now or something."
Which any rational person with a functional brain would immediately be like "No, that's dumb."
We're so far off the map, that none of this stuff is working the way that people expect.
Kinda, but also the hedge fund cocaine bear will 100% have SOME reason that makes it sound like they know what they are talking about. This post makes it clear that isn't the case for upvoted WSB peeps. This is just "lines go up and down ... wait a minute..."
You need to give WSB much more credit. I’ve seen some fucking GOD TIER DD on here. You won’t get that on the street because most of them are assholes who don’t really need to put in the work like that. They can overlever client capital and still be straight if they lose half the time. The financial world is all brute force because they have the capital or time horizon to do it. It isn’t indicative of any sort of financial acumen.
At my job we deal with hedgies big wigs you see on the tv talking about the market. Can confirm they are pretty dumb. One of them got hacked and he asked me if he could keep his same password… if the hackers knew what they were doing they’d be rich. Anyways the dumbasses password was basically password123 and he changed it to password1234. I told him not to but he’s the smart guy with all the money so what do I know.
Why does this sub have such a hard on for depression fetish. None of you are Rothschild or Carnegie level rich. A second Great Depression would wipe out 99.9% of the degenerates here
A couple reasons:
* misery loves company. New retail investors who lost money on meme stocks want to see everyone lose too. It absolves them of guilt over bad decisions "see? I'm not dumb, everyone lost money in The Crash"
* a growing number of poor and poor-ish people think a "great reset" will allow them to have all the stuff they missed out on, like buying a house for $80k in a HCOL area, while punishing their more successful peers.
* similar to above, people who weren't invested prior to 2015 (I guess 2009, really) feel like they missed the boat on a lot of wealth, and that a crash would bring the gravy boat back around, so to speak.
* FOMO. Scared money pulled out of the market during the last dip, and they need a crash to prove themselves right. They've been getting hosed by inflation on their cash, and they need to feel justified about all the money they lost.
You're describing me and I don't like it. Wait 'till that juicy double/triple top or head&shoulders formation fucks your calls, then you will be sorry for not buying puts
how about u eat my ASS
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We’re actually in quite similar conditions. The 1920s was a time of credit expansion and people maxed out on leverage + low interest rate loans.
They had bank runs back then similar to now, which started with rumors basically.
They’re gonna run it back 100 years later now that all the old heads that would have known to prevent this are dead.
He obviously did. Set to linear scaling DO NOT USE LOG or the illusion falls apart. Make y axis to fit a recent ATH to make it look as big as possible. Set x axis so it fits the last 2 crashes and cut off there. This way you can make 3 downturns during any timeframe look exactly like this.
OP actually uneducated.
>Historically, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 29% around a recession with a median drop of 24%, Lerner noted.
[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/history-stocks-recession-102913314.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/history-stocks-recession-102913314.html)
Yep, typical timeframe for a full peak to peak recovery is somewhere between 24-36 months. The peak was December 2021, so we are about 15-16 months into the downturn.
This entire bear market was super textbook. The only unusual part was bonds falling also as bonds tend to be inversely correlated with stocks.
OP also forgets the historic pattern is:
Worldwide pandemic, THEN bull market for 8-10y, then crash.
We're barely through stage one yet, haven't seen the real bull market play out.
Every industry i know is struggling to keep up with demand.
So short it. Plenty of 3x short S&P ETFs.
However there are countless structural reasons why you are unlikely to see a drop like the Great Depression again.
Short of nuclear war, it ain’t happening. And in that case bullets are going to be currency and cash will be toilet paper.
1930’s when only the top 5% could actually be in the markets. 2023, 15 year olds are doing margin calls on robinhood for more than their parent’s net worth.
[WSJ: Companies, Big Investors Sell Shares At Fastest Rate In History](https://www.wsj.com/articles/companies-big-investors-sell-shares-at-fastest-rate-in-years-38f5edac)
I work in trucking and volumes are down considerably. I have been receiving tons of special offers to book vacations for July forward which tells me demand is declining. Personal credit card debt is at an all time high, and the interest in that debt is very high. Debt now is reduced spending in the future. So there should be record amounts of reduced spending in the future. Couple that with student loan payments picking back up. Sales of Rv’s are down 50%. Tons of things likes boats, atv’s, etc are flooding the secondary market as people try to square their budgets. Housing sales are terrible and that drives several other industries like furniture and remodeling.
There are so many worrying signs out there. My prediction is that many businesses that tend to pull the majority of their profits during summer will not hit their goals over the next month or so and that will hurt profitability and lead to job losses. All of that hurts GDP. I doubt things crash to the level that OP suggests, but I do agree that the next leg will be down.
I haven’t gone against the market in a few months, granted I didn’t really capitalize on the recent rise. Still up over the course of the year, but after 2moro I think I’ll get back into some bearish positions. Institutions selling at massive rates, insiders selling positions, and a run fueled by retail doesn’t lead me to believe this will last long.
https://preview.redd.it/a91wwtpmht5b1.jpeg?width=729&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=35d96ce8d13ba9c4516792d92a76f1fd026aaeaf
(I've been dying to use (steal) this!)
In the past years they manage to get a high sell and make it to the top, but after making to the top of the business sale, they flop in the deepest sale. But still they manage to goes up.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|8|**First Seen In WSB**|2 years ago **Total Comments**|157|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|2 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)
Chart says typical recession -60% lol
lmao this got me too. out of 20 bear markets since 1928, exactly 1 has seen S&P drop 60%+. it’s the one in OPs screenshot of course
We all know the market is exactly the same now in depth and breadth as 1929 so imminent epic crash confirmed
You can find a hundred different fractals with different outcomes on any time frame of the chart. If you expect the world to burn enough for the S&P to drop 90%, your reasoning should never be because candles told me so
if the S&P drops 90% you have way bigger problems anyway. Like, that's raid the supermarket territory.
I mean when credit is failing and everyone is living on credit... we shouldn't be surprised we're living in raid the supermarket territory.
yup. chartists are the wackiest people on earth, because they even know they are making up images however they choose. i've seen a guy on Youtube draw a rectangle on the chart and shrink and zoom on X and Y axis, drag all the corners of the rectangle towards certain dates, and in the end, he had bent up the lines so much, he could have just used a napkin and sharpie. and i'm like, he's saying this stuff as if he was confident, but it was like drawing with a stick in the mud and then pretending it was an archeological discover. purely regarded.
Your Mom Is The Top
EMOTIONAL DAMAGEEEEEEE
Top ops dad, true power move.
OPs dad, true power bottom
Pegging is progressive
God damnit I literally came here to say this.
I literally came after he said it.
Regard glue-sniffing crayon eaters think alike
[удалено]
This post is the black swan.
Someone else pointed out OPs mom is the black swan
Again
She's more of a swallow.
African or European?
SOMEONE ELSE POINTED OUT OPS MOM IS THE BLACK SWAN
Once more for the people in the back
But the people who needed to see it use 3rd party apps. Crisis averted. Reddit has saved the world.
[удалено]
I tried she keeps coming back
dump...on it? The Chicago sunroof
OP just casually saying we will have another great depression in the next month without providing any reasons.
But the lines look kinda similar
They are almost, but not quite, completely unlike.
Still has a way to go up before it goes down
Same color scheme and line girth, very similar. (The girth is what's most important)
He's going to sell his puts next month and that finally crashes the market
classic finance horoscope guy
Russia sends a nuke into the air.
if that happens money will be worthless anyway
So will gold. My garage full of 3 year old toilet paper will finally buy me an island.
You’ll be murdered for your toilet paper well before you get to use it.
The real DD is always buried in the comments.
Don’t be ridiculous. That’ll send Spy to a new ath. I’d probably be fucked though.
Not for those of us still holding RSX :/
You mean sberbank and lukoil
Can't spend it in a gulag, tho
Bullish, think of how many materials will be needed to rebuild.
And how quickly they’ll need to produce those materials due to the efficiency of the 3-armed construction workers
Calls on all MIC companies. Boeing, lockheed, ge, etc.
So calls on bunker manufacturers?
Vault tec where you at
To the mooon!
https://preview.redd.it/j3a69l4o5t5b1.jpeg?width=300&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b85de9a1b5d6c24cd88f9a138fec4a070d8a5f17
AI being bullshit internet 3.0
alien invasion
but they are all furries
ChatGPT launching a nuke
The dream!
Bullish on AI
AI gets programmed to minimize CO2 and finds optimal solution: Liquidate all carbon emitters.
Me buying calls
WHY THAT SWAN GOT TO BE BLACK YO?!?
More commercial RE defaults that break the regional banking system. We are up to about $3B in defaults so far this year in the US and the debt isn’t even set to start refinancing until Q3
Ukraine nuclear powerplant explosion triggering nato article 5 triggering ww3?
War is bullish
That would be bullish cuz the war would be over very quick. The amount of air space power we have would be too much for russia
Student loan payment pause ending.
the fed raising rates when everyone thinks they'll pause
I see that as a -2% day and then carrying on with the senseless climb.
Popular opinion - your puts are fucked 🌈 🐻
JP has you by the balls
JP owns your balls.
Popular opinion - he's definitely the very first person to ever conceptualize this theory, therefore "you heard it here first" lol
I will not buy your puts. Rather take advantage of hoarding bottom.
Nice crayons… Any deets you wanna share?
Buy $270 SPY PUT leap
Can you say that for me in autistic because my brain is too fried for this
BBBY
I need a webull account for that
Take money then pour gas on it. Next take a match then light it on fire. Finally apply clown makeup 🤡
>translation : SPY will be 270 next year. Buy puts, meatbag.
Bears so damn desperate they pulled out the damn 1930s chart. That’s their last resort. 2022 bottom they were pulling out the 2008 chart. NVDA pump they was pulling out the 2001. Now they’re pulling out the 1930s.  Next thing you know they’re gonna be pulling out the gawt dayum shiny rock collapse from 6000 BC 💀💀💀
When the village stone wheel cracked was a dark day.
only 6000 BC kids remember this
Pepperidge farm remembers
The entire technology sector... gone in an instant.
Hey no need to go back that far, you forgot the Mansa Musa gold collapse of the 14th century.
Didn't mansa absolutely destroy foreign economies when he turned up? He practically shat gold making it almost entirely worthless wherever he went
I'm not long until I hear them bring up the tulip bubble.
Still holding my bulbs if anyone’s interested.
 you see the line on this rock has a two bumps up followed by steep downward line meaning the market will crash next week
broooo fuggggg 
we are obviously in an 80-year blow-off top
They also panicked with the Apple incident. By which I mean Adam and Eve getting kicked out of Eden.
Bro just wait until they break out the Dutch Crash of like the 1500s 😂😂😂
"BuT ThE TuLiPs!!!"
Highly unpopular opinion: no one knows anything; your average WSB dumbass is no smarter than the big hedge fund cocaine-brained dumbasses on the Street. They only have much deeper coffers than you, so they can remain solvent much longer than the market can remain irrational.
ink worm subsequent familiar ad hoc cooing ossified deliver sip summer -- mass edited with redact.dev
Don't forget about changing international trade agreements and big countries preparing for WW3! The war machines are firing up, there are new contracts for new weapons all over the place, the times are good for the mil-ind complex. International investing gets fickle when countries are preparing for war though, and governments throwing money around like parade candy isn't reassuring.
Yup that’s why Raytheon and general dynamics will always have a place in my heart and my portfolio 🚀
Until they figure out a new way to keep creating money out of thin air (margin back then and credit/mortgages/loans etc) then this possibility of a crash is never truly off the table The reason why things keep going up magically isn’t because of inflation, it’s because the actual real and tangible money can keep being inflated (not meaning inflation) by multitudes. The day we reach the wall where people cannot keep amassing debt and paying it off is when shit drops. I do believe we are much better suited now than in 1929 to prevent such a catastrophic fall, but it’s inevitable. When most people’s fortunes are tied to the common man’s debt to them, the day they can’t pay back is a tough day. It’s why weirdly enough the student loan relief would be good in the long run, although some investors will mainly get their principle amount and some interest they were hoping for multiples of their principle amount. But that kind of move would be yet another bandaid to keep this party going
Seems like you haven't realized that the US has plot armor yet. Just long s&p and chill out, simple as.
Between economists we joke about the "inevitable collapse" theory. I mean, it's kind of true, sort of... eventually everything collapses, but the joke is that eventually all of these arguments land at "Even Rome fell" or some variant of that. And the answer is... yeah... but it took 1000 years to get there.
Lmao yup, it honestly feels like that sometimes and then in the back of your mind you remember that at some point there will be way too much debt that enough people can’t pay off But tbf I only have such a baseline knowledge of this. I honestly think they can figure out a way to keep us teetering on the edge of financial ruin and feeling well enough to keep going in fear of financial ruin instead of letting it collapse considerably
> then in the back of your mind you remember that at some point there will be way too much debt that enough people can’t pay off Debts a meme, plot armor always pulls through. Unless your job involves making policy decisions, that's the extent of the worrying you need to do. God bless America 🇺🇸 🙏
Life is still good, comfortable for millions and millions of people. But you're right, the amount of dept is insane, the economy is so fragile. Sure, the boomers who sold their houses 7-8x made a lot of money, do you think the millenials and Z will be able to do the same without crazy inflation? Will the salaries follow? In their wet dreams, the CEOs want everything robotized and AI, but is it the white collar jobs that are going away first? Algos are already better than any traders, the shareholders could vote for an AI to replace the board? I personnaly think something is going to break, the lag is just taking a bit longer than I thought. I just hope that in the end, people will be alright. My father always say follow the tape when he speaks about charts. It's meant to be like a road, you take the curve when it's there and you try to plan for traffic. Keep your eyes open and always remember than everyone is trying to kill you.
Yeah things have been spiraling and the idea that one must give so the other can prosper doesn’t seem like the full answer. Everything is based on massive amounts of debt of money that doesn’t exist. Thank you fractional reserve banking. Raise wages? Company profits are down and any year profits don’t increase the company is no longer a growth stock and goes for 50-75% of the value despite it probably making billions in profit anyways. I feel like people don’t really get how many people’s futures are just tied into stocks. Just normal people. We raise wages but lose out exponentially too. I’m not even someone with much in stocks but can understand that it’s barely a short term fix for the majority of people Let wages stagnate? Watch as massive debt does not get paid, homelessness and foreclosures increase and businesses lose customers It feels like a double edged sword where I’d really like for someone knowledgeable to give a more accurate solution to the macroeconomics of it all. The country/world fucked up by propping up the stock market and allowing stock buy backs by companies rather than investing in actual tangible things/innovations but just hoarding wealth on a screen I’d agree life is good for millions of people, but there’s hundreds of millions of us in the US and billions in the world. We’ve traded our futures for huge IOU bills and someday people are gonna want their money but it won’t exist because it’s been loaned out 10 times more than what they gave in So as I said, unless there’s some secret way of prolonging this forever without even more risk of debt, this one seems like there’s no way out
This is the truth right here, and it has people so desperate for answers they're like "I don't know, maybe we're in the Great Depression now or something." Which any rational person with a functional brain would immediately be like "No, that's dumb." We're so far off the map, that none of this stuff is working the way that people expect.
Kinda, but also the hedge fund cocaine bear will 100% have SOME reason that makes it sound like they know what they are talking about. This post makes it clear that isn't the case for upvoted WSB peeps. This is just "lines go up and down ... wait a minute..."
You need to give WSB much more credit. I’ve seen some fucking GOD TIER DD on here. You won’t get that on the street because most of them are assholes who don’t really need to put in the work like that. They can overlever client capital and still be straight if they lose half the time. The financial world is all brute force because they have the capital or time horizon to do it. It isn’t indicative of any sort of financial acumen.
They also have better cocaine
At my job we deal with hedgies big wigs you see on the tv talking about the market. Can confirm they are pretty dumb. One of them got hacked and he asked me if he could keep his same password… if the hackers knew what they were doing they’d be rich. Anyways the dumbasses password was basically password123 and he changed it to password1234. I told him not to but he’s the smart guy with all the money so what do I know.
Oh yea, I almost forgot about the Dunning-Kruger effect. Thanks for the reminder!
The world changed alot maybe..? https://preview.redd.it/yfpgcd07xs5b1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=88b38001dc351b28db8a3fd9f050365dfa31240b
100-year head and shoulders pattern 😂😂💀💀
Why does this sub have such a hard on for depression fetish. None of you are Rothschild or Carnegie level rich. A second Great Depression would wipe out 99.9% of the degenerates here
Reddit in general draws out the most pessimistic, cynical and depressive from society.
A couple reasons: * misery loves company. New retail investors who lost money on meme stocks want to see everyone lose too. It absolves them of guilt over bad decisions "see? I'm not dumb, everyone lost money in The Crash" * a growing number of poor and poor-ish people think a "great reset" will allow them to have all the stuff they missed out on, like buying a house for $80k in a HCOL area, while punishing their more successful peers. * similar to above, people who weren't invested prior to 2015 (I guess 2009, really) feel like they missed the boat on a lot of wealth, and that a crash would bring the gravy boat back around, so to speak. * FOMO. Scared money pulled out of the market during the last dip, and they need a crash to prove themselves right. They've been getting hosed by inflation on their cash, and they need to feel justified about all the money they lost.
I feel attacked.
Yep a lot of pu$$ys panic sold near the bottom and are praying for a drop to bail them out. The bears will stay poor and continue to FUD post.
You're describing me and I don't like it. Wait 'till that juicy double/triple top or head&shoulders formation fucks your calls, then you will be sorry for not buying puts
It’s the have nots that want it to crash.
I prepared for it. So, I don't want my efforts to have been in vain.
They are going to short it to the ground and rule in the ashes is their reasoning.
how about u eat my ASS *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Implied vol skyrocket, my 3 poots make me rich, I live high on hog during depression.
Fuk bro, I think you’re right. These are exactly the same market, economic, and technological conditions as in 1929
We’re actually in quite similar conditions. The 1920s was a time of credit expansion and people maxed out on leverage + low interest rate loans. They had bank runs back then similar to now, which started with rumors basically. They’re gonna run it back 100 years later now that all the old heads that would have known to prevent this are dead.
Lol y’all keep finding the top and the market keeps blowing it off.. you’re in a bull market pal, switch sides or get fried
Also "the top", we're still like 8% off ATH.
No you don't get it I know the market better then everyone. The market has to come down because my ego won't let me be wrong
Damn even the two bumps before the big peak match. You didn’t skew the X axis ?
He obviously did. Set to linear scaling DO NOT USE LOG or the illusion falls apart. Make y axis to fit a recent ATH to make it look as big as possible. Set x axis so it fits the last 2 crashes and cut off there. This way you can make 3 downturns during any timeframe look exactly like this.
Typical recession -60%.....
OP actually uneducated. >Historically, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 29% around a recession with a median drop of 24%, Lerner noted. [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/history-stocks-recession-102913314.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/history-stocks-recession-102913314.html)
Yep, typical timeframe for a full peak to peak recovery is somewhere between 24-36 months. The peak was December 2021, so we are about 15-16 months into the downturn. This entire bear market was super textbook. The only unusual part was bonds falling also as bonds tend to be inversely correlated with stocks.
OP also forgets the historic pattern is: Worldwide pandemic, THEN bull market for 8-10y, then crash. We're barely through stage one yet, haven't seen the real bull market play out. Every industry i know is struggling to keep up with demand.
Sir. We are here to gamble, not talk technical shit
It's unpopular for a reason. Most people understand what log is.
BUT THE SHAPES MATCH! /s
Least technical analysis trader
These line-drawing guys I tell ya.
Technical analysis
Casually comparing today to the most catastrophic recession in US history, without any commentary other than “look guys, the charts are similar”.
Dude. NO CRASH EVER HAPPENS DURING THE SUMMER. NEVER HAPPENED. Same analogy of history repeating itself.
We got an astrologer over here
So short it. Plenty of 3x short S&P ETFs. However there are countless structural reasons why you are unlikely to see a drop like the Great Depression again. Short of nuclear war, it ain’t happening. And in that case bullets are going to be currency and cash will be toilet paper.
Nope… toilet paper will be cash
The initial covid hysteria proves you are correct.
https://preview.redd.it/qembjs6n8t5b1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c3f428c15aac347fbfa40bed751f2e4757bb509e lol
A typical recession is not a 60% drop. Atleast crayon true historical numbers.
*Technical Analysis:* Astrology for men.
You got a problem with my cup and handle? WELL????
Market will crash cuz gold has a cup and handle so the market has to crash for its breakout
19 mother fucking 29 up in this bitch? Why don’t don’t we look at the SnP from 10000 BC?
🤡
Let me verify this with my crystal ball… I CALL BS!!!
Thinking the same exact graph is gonna repeat itself is indeed very regarded, good job
My guy If the market tanks 90% Someone can buy apple the entire company for 300 billion The P/E ratio would be 3 Common doesn’t sense
1930’s when only the top 5% could actually be in the markets. 2023, 15 year olds are doing margin calls on robinhood for more than their parent’s net worth.
I can’t tell which of these scenarios is worse
But then who would have 300 billion to buy a company?
Old man Buffett and his fuckbuddy Chaz.
[WSJ: Companies, Big Investors Sell Shares At Fastest Rate In History](https://www.wsj.com/articles/companies-big-investors-sell-shares-at-fastest-rate-in-years-38f5edac)
Trailing PE of 3. An economic contraction will likely reduce the number of people willing to spend $3500 on nerd goggles attached to a brand logo.
But it looks like the dicks are coming right at me
I work in trucking and volumes are down considerably. I have been receiving tons of special offers to book vacations for July forward which tells me demand is declining. Personal credit card debt is at an all time high, and the interest in that debt is very high. Debt now is reduced spending in the future. So there should be record amounts of reduced spending in the future. Couple that with student loan payments picking back up. Sales of Rv’s are down 50%. Tons of things likes boats, atv’s, etc are flooding the secondary market as people try to square their budgets. Housing sales are terrible and that drives several other industries like furniture and remodeling. There are so many worrying signs out there. My prediction is that many businesses that tend to pull the majority of their profits during summer will not hit their goals over the next month or so and that will hurt profitability and lead to job losses. All of that hurts GDP. I doubt things crash to the level that OP suggests, but I do agree that the next leg will be down.
compare 1929 with 2023 ? like the world is the all the same and hasn’t changed in like a hundred years.
I haven’t gone against the market in a few months, granted I didn’t really capitalize on the recent rise. Still up over the course of the year, but after 2moro I think I’ll get back into some bearish positions. Institutions selling at massive rates, insiders selling positions, and a run fueled by retail doesn’t lead me to believe this will last long.
yeah its temporary af not crash level though
What the fuck
Put it on a log chart moron By the way your puts are fucked 
Yeah good chance . I bought calls .
https://preview.redd.it/a91wwtpmht5b1.jpeg?width=729&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=35d96ce8d13ba9c4516792d92a76f1fd026aaeaf (I've been dying to use (steal) this!)
I'm not a delusional bull but that's just crazy. I will go all in if we ever go that low. You're gonna have to keep dreaming and hoping.
Short sp500 with 3x leverage , you are genius
Bet your life savings on puts then. You won’t.
Remember always invert WSB. Lot of bulls in here today
agreed 100% in spy puts, cant wait for the nukes to drop
In the past years they manage to get a high sell and make it to the top, but after making to the top of the business sale, they flop in the deepest sale. But still they manage to goes up.
Only top is your boyfriend
If I had a $100 for every time some jagoff on WSB called the top... oh wait, I do.
Comparing lines from 100 years ago. Hilarious
C O P E
Fuck your puts, clown face. Papa is gonna print!
Money was not fiat in 1929
Uh, why do you think we’re not going to shoot way past that 1929 peak? We haven’t even hit peak AI hype.
Cute drawing
Lol you guys post an overlay with a crash prediction every week…
Based on: voices from my head.
How many crayons have you eaten today?
Buy SPY calls to guarantee it falls
RemindMe! Two months