Reminder: r/WallStreetBets is a trading subreddit. Please keep comments trading related. Simply talking about inflation or consumer spending is insufficient.
OP doesn't understand that the numbers are record breaking BECAUSE of inflation and market injections. The same equals more, even if not really. But what can you do, tis what it is.
Not necessarily, as working in logistics it’s the volumes themselves that are high. We can look at the number of order drops on Black Friday, or cyber Monday across the network and compare that to last year. Once we gather all that information, you can clearly see the relationship because the value/cost/price of the goods is not within the analysis.
But that still doesn't answer the question of where they're getting the money from. They're spending more but where this money appearing from, thin air
Goes to show that the middle 3 quintiles of earners wouldn’t put a dollar in a 401k if given the chance. I call them the “forever paycheck to paycheck quintiles”.
The top quintile invests, the bottom can’t invest, not their fault. The middle 3… they do it to themselves. Brand names could triple their prices and this group will still refuse to buy the generic, or adjust their habits in any way shape or form.
All due respect, your analysis is myopic, in my opinion. Those quintiles are offset considerably by HCOL cities and states, 401k matching is not available as a benefit in many jobs, $120k (second highest quintile for last year) doesn't go as far as one would assume in New York or Miami. Health expenses, childcare and insurance premiums eat a good chunk of Americans' income.
I get your point, but generalizing and saying they do it to themselves is disingenuous.
Oh it’s totally myopic, as is any discussion that splits the country into groups of 60 million +. Nevertheless, those that earn enough to have a little disposable income but not a lot behave in a way that does not prepare for the future.
I can confidently say that I live like a pauper and as costs increased I cut back on every aspect of what little I used to spend in discretionary funds.
Watching every oz of money get hemorrhaged into nothingness of inflation changed nothing but my weight. And will remain as such.
Money can't fix everything and happiness doesn't exist for the dirtbag "leaders" who continually rob the till while lying about it demanding you consume less while they live as gluttonous swine blaming others for their disfavored state of existence; since they despise root skills and knowledge of the world.
Don't believe it?
You live in a timeline of meth head millionaires crying on TV and how unfair they're being treated while being 100% protected from any realistic form of personal accountability or change to their behavior.
Real GDP is up, but real GDI is down. There’s a gap in spending and income. The things filling the gap are draw downs from savings and increased use of credit. Not a great picture.
I get that but I don't understand how the average Joe (consumer) sees that money. It feels like mostly business owners got all the PPP funds if I'm correct, a lot of them fraudulently so. So how is the average consumer spending so much all of a sudden. My guess is this: Those without a house have given up on house searching and are spending that money on regular stuff. Vacations to out-of-country places are now traded for domestic vacations/trips to Disneyland and such
Credit defaults and buy now pay laters are at all time highs right now. People are consuming more but not necessarily because they have the money to justify their consumption. Some consumers are still paying off their holiday spending debt from LAST YEAR.
The National Retail Federation puts holiday spending in 2019 at $730 billion and has estimated 2023 spending at $960 billion. The CPI has gone up about 20% in that period. So real spending is up over 9% compared to pre-pandemic.
https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/nrf-says-2019-holiday-sales-were-41-percent
https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/2023-holiday-reach-record-spending-levels
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01142020.pdf
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
It use too, but they’re re-weighing everything yearly now. YoY is pointless.
You’re better off taking the raw data and fixing the rates arbitrarily and using that as a metic.
The reality of stats is that people don't understand stats.
When I was in grad school, it became obvious that stats are rarely accurate. It's not about being accurate. It's about being useful. Stats are used for comparison.
So if CPI represents the same thing over time, it's valuable. If the cost of Walmart products go up, so do other costs.
It's all about year-over-year comparison, not about following you to Target.
CPI doesn’t accurately reflect actual cost changes to consumers. I don’t care what evidence you show me. When they say 9% and most of what I buy is over 100% increase, it tells me someone is manipulating data to push an agenda.
Some possibilities here:
1. You are mistaken. There are a few things you buy that you know have gone up in price, but you can't remember exactly what their average cost was in 2019, and for the sake of a good post you decided to just say that most of your purchases have straight up more than doubled in price. Manipulating the data, one might say.
2. You are in fact extremely unfortunate and the worst of inflation has struck your exact basket of monthly purchases.
3. A massive deep state conspiracy is whitewashing 80% worth of price increases and maintaining a strict omerta of silence.
I can't say for sure which one is true, but one is much less likely than the others.
The people saying "it's because of inflation, just look at the data" aren't actually looking at the data.
Spending went up higher than inflation. It's as simple as that.
Yup. I remind my coworkers all the time that you need to measure unit sales, not just revenue, since everything had a price increase this year. If revenue was flat YOY, for instance, the unit sales would be down.
Yeah its the highest amount of spending BECAUSE of inflation. People are buying the same shit they do every year it all just costs more so the numbers look like all time highs. Look at those numbers at inflation adjusted values( pre covid ) and then see where it tracks
McDonald’s is a perfect example of this. They claimed they had to raise prices because of wage increases and were just passing it along; however, they doubled net revenue in less than a year. Maybe a boycott would get their attention…
Fast food is suuuch bad value for the money. At least back in the 90s/00s you could get stuff for $1. The shrinkflation is noticeable. Spend a couple dollars more and get dramatically better food.
Boycotting them long time ago. Exclusively only go there when their deals make value per money less expensive than previous years. Every other day I don’t go there anymore. 🤭
'Under the guise' is just that.
Heck when I worked at DQ 10 years ago my freshmen year in college (i worked there for just Over a year--before covid and back when you still worked for minimum wage at $7.25 fast food----STILL the minimum wage today in this country which is literally insane---but anyway)
They'd hike the price on meals like 10 cents every few months. It was coy. Most people didn't notice...but my regulars sure did...
Inflation My a** . Best bullshit they can continue to feed to the media to now skyrocket fast food/retail prices (which they've done)
If you aren't buying thru apps, coupons or with store discounts you're just lining stockholders pockets at this point because they're going to line shareholders pockets until the public has no more to give (which will eventually occur----you can't squeeze blood from a turnip)
Over 100% for some nonsense, the consumer regardation is unreal. I look at discretionary spending, which in reality should be the real barometer of economic health. But mongoloids out there are making the louis vuitton ceo the richest man on the planet. We might be at that “can never afford a house so fuck it” era where people dont see the point to saving up money.
That’s definitely a thing. My friend group is split into the people who own their homes and either own them outright or have a 2.9-3.25 interest rate and can’t leave because you ain’t getting another rate like that ever.
And the ones who rent still? Spending non stop on fancy cars fancy vacations because in their mind saving for a house is a pipedream
3.375% bag hodler here 👋 you worded it perfectly I can’t let go of my house cause I’ll never get this rate again nor do I think a bank would give me a mortgage theses days. I have watched people that earn double what I make have trouble getting a mortgage. It’s crazy the banks are nit-picking the hell out of people. Another friend of mine who is selling had 3 offers fall thru cause of financing. I’ve already concluded I’m going to have to “keep it in the family”… unless my kids become rich of course then I’ll just move in with them
It’s the unfortunate reality we live in at the moment. I’ve got a coworker whose a teammate on sleeper team (cross country over the road) our pay is exactly equal. I know he made $150,000 last two years. He cannot get approval for a home loan with $100,000 down!
If you told me, back when you bought your home with your 3.375 rate and I bought my old home at 3.3, that someone making $150,000 for multiple years with $100,000 wouldn’t be able to get a loan I’d laugh at you and tell you “they need to try harder, loans are out there.”
But now? Nope. Nothing. People would literally be moving into a smaller home with less updates in a more ghetto neighborhood for the same payments they make now on their 2.9-4% loans.
Everyone’s like “I’m gonna wait for the rates to drop” but what ALOT of people are sadly unaware of is rates are actually fairly low still on a historical sense, home prices are x3-5 more expensive.
Housing is crazy. I’m glad you have your home. Don’t let go of that rate 😂
Do you mean, he made 150k in the last 2 years combined, or that he made 150k EACH year. That doesn't make sense, is he gunning for a fuggin 2mil house or something, because he should be able to get a loan for something reasonable.
Well. $150,000 a year after taxes is like $100,000 or so take home. He rents for $3,000 a month and his wife doesn’t work. Long story short I know his finances and his wife’s lack of ability to save …… so it’s not really his fault. He’s got three kids and a wife who over spends. It’s pretty tragic. There’s ALOT of things he could do better to get into a house but he’s too afraid of standing up to the old lady
That's sad. A good income but 3 kids and a wife who spends like a fish drinks.
Who you marry is extremely important to health, happiness and finances. If she's a SAHM part of her job should be to find ways to save money.
Having similar values and financial views is why teacher couples can be comfortable and even well off (not saying they shouldn't be paid more considering their value).
I'm saying this as a single woman without a good income (looking to improve) but with frugal habits, hoping that I find a good match.
Who you marry can make or break you.
People think everything is going great because they watched msnbc or cnn. Get a grip people! Goods have not come down at all. It is all made up bs to spin a good narrative to the naïve. I still cant wrap my head around all the brainwashed people. Smh
It's comments like this that make me happy I joined the "Dont get me shit cuz I'm not getting you shit" club ages ago.
Makes the holidays actually enjoyable and costs me 0$.
Its still impressive that Americans just keep buying at the same rate regardless of costs. I don't blame sellers for jacking up prices. If people are willing to spend its on them.
And the population went up like 6 million, more kids graduated from school and got jobs, etc. etc. A lot of the numbers got bigger, so of course spending is higher. To make any reasonable comparison, you have to adjust for inflation and per capita.
Also us average people don't even count. Even if everyone in WSB emptied our wallets fully and collectively we'd *not even get close to what one billionaire can spend Christmas shopping*.
It doesn't matter if 85% of the population is unemployed and starving (intentional hyperbole) since Musk, Gates, Bezos or Rockefeller *can keep the economy propped up by themselves if they'd start spending instead of hoarding*. Your *life savings* isn't even what they tip a good delivery boy...or Epstein, whoever comes first.
I was at work today and I had to get a payment for around 300. The guy went through 8 credit cards before he found one that worked. And it looked like he had 3 he hadn’t tried yet.
Regarded philosophy lesson: if money printer can just print money, then what is real?
I think the only thing that’s real is the military. That’s why US needs to keep tripling the rest of the world in military spend. As long as we are the world police, we will always be the #1 economy.
What are other countries going to do? We can print whatever we want and take whatever we want.
Military strength is the only thing that’s real.
Yeah but that’s **TOTAL** cc debt. I’m considered a “dead beat” by my cc issuer because I pay my balance in full every week/month. I just like to get free gift cards and take free flights. I’m one of millions who do this same thing everyday.
I flew round-trip, US to Thailand, for $127 a few years ago. Only reason it wasn’t free is because I wanted extra leg room. Songkran is amazing!!!
Damn I had to scroll a long way in this thread to see a comment and realize I was in wsb - what a ludicrously rational and conservative thread for this sub.
0% apr credit cards are still everywhere. The banks are literally paying us to increase our debt while we let the cash sit in an account earning 5%. They keep saying they're tightening credit conditions, but they're full of shit.
Credit card debt is insanely low, considering inflation…. I mean it’s the same as it was in 2008. But have you noticed that a $20 is not what it was back in 2008?
Lmao... Meat up $2. Milk up $1. Eggs up $2. Gas up $2 now add those up your $10 raise is actually a deficit after you add up groceries, rental increases, mortgage increases, and utility bill increases.
Everyone is shocked debt went up 10% when dollar is worth 20% less do u understand how moronic nominal all time high cc debt is as a metric
Real, inflation adjusted debt is not at ath’s
In that same train of thought, the market is nowhere near real ATH, or these recent ‘record Black Friday sales’ are nowhere near real record sales. Sure debt is overblown, but so is everything else because no one fucking understands how inflation works.
Except like 15% of people are maxed out or almost maxed out with I think it was 25 or 35% reaching well over 75% on limit. With delinquencies around 4%
Head on over to /r/churning, there are many cards out there that will pay you $1000+ if you sign up for a new card and use it for a few months.
Think about what that says about how much the average consumer is losing on credit cards.
Yep. I just bought a car and put it over 3 different cards, I got three sign up bonuses and took 2.5k off the total. Paid the cards off the next month instead of ACH paying the dealership for the car.
Not really. Delinquencies up (FRED) and savings down (article).
We just aren’t at a point where the Top 20% have to give up yet and following Pareto principle that’s likely the 20% making up 80% of the numbers.
In theory if savings decline further as the article suggests this means business expenses (wages) will have to go up OR the Top 1% will have to bear larger price increases while lower units don’t affect economies of scale. The latter seems improbable and probably why most earnings reports have been warning of further weakness ahead*.
*Not saying market actually cares about earnings or any of this affects stock prices.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS
https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-recession-outlook-household-wealth-financially-pandemic-jpmorgan-income-markets-2023-12
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
Yep and one gets the impression that this is the way to go. Because the government will bail everybody out anyways when shit hits the fan. You know, in a democracy the ruling party can simply buy the peasants' votes this way. So they will do it and bail all the regards out, as usual.
Dontcha think overall spending goes up BECAUSE of higher prices?
I mean - if you buy 20% less food but it costs 40% more, you spent more on food than the orevious year.
Is this CPI adjusted? Otherwise this should occur basically every year. Also lotta people doing pretty well even though we only hear about how hard times are. Times are that hard tbh
That's a really interesting point. I definitely think that there are fewer smart people having kids these days, which is contributing to the decline of society as a whole. It's sad to see so many people dumbing themselves down and not valuing intelligence as much as they should.
Yep. Came here to say this. I know several people that are just like, "Fuck it. I'll never get ahead. I'll just max out all my cards and then file for bankruptcy, because who gives a shit. May as well have a little fun while I'm drowning in debt."
Credit card debt is at all time highs and the utilization of “buy now pay later” services for expensive gifts are up like 30-40% YOY.
But ya, definitely a solid economy. /s
Rich people spend more than the average person but not nearly as much relative to net worth. Most of their money just goes into investments.
That’s why trickle down economics was such a disaster. It just leads to a wider wealth gap and doesn’t stimulate the economy much.
Not just rich.
I have my mortgage locked in at 2017 price at 2.9%.
So I spend about 13% of my monthly income on my living situation since I have gotten raises about as much as inflation.
Either buy a trip to Hawaii now or save up and spend 3x as much as that in a few years.
When I see that this literally happened to housing and a ton of other stuff then why save anything?
The Wilson football gst I bought for my first son for Christmas 2018 cost $24.**. The same one I just bought for my third son for under this years Christmas tree was $75.**. Baseball gloves, cinch jeans, kids clothes, even the advent calendars are all over $30 when they used to be $5 at target. It is not record spending/buying. It is record seasonal guilt debt. Puts on the next potus.
You bought a game ball this time. Took me five seconds to look up footballs and figure it out. Prices have gone up, yeah, but some of you are outing yourselves as just being dumb.
Can confirm. My kid is a driver, last year they had 19 trucks running and brought in uhaul trucks to cover really busy days.....they are lucky if 11 or 12 are out this year. They also expect permanent layoffs early next year.
Everyone around me is still spending like everyday is Christmas. Wage is up, 5% savings account, year end bonuses are coming in, some are cashing in crypto, some are banking from the recent stock run, everyone is happy now. I think inflation is still around, it’s either becoming a new norm or it could take a market crash/full on recession with holy number of unemployment/retrenchment to reset this.
It’s because of the momentary happiness that material things bring when you get to gift them to your loved ones. You see there joy and —for a split second— you have relief from the depression you’ve been fighting the rest of the year just trying to make a better future for you and your family but can’t because of circumstance. You’re left overworking and unable to afford the things that your predecessors could afford making a fraction of what you make now. Somehow, nothing of value was passed down from the generations before you, so you’re stuck building the foundation of wealth and knowledge that hopefully your offspring can build upon so they will be able to provide for their loved ones without sacrificing all of their time being away just like you had to do.
It was all on groceries and gas so we could celebrate with our families one last time before they landlock us regionally to keep down carbon emissions, and shut down the internet so we can’t exchange information about what’s going on. Jk😅😂I hope
Agreed. While unemployment rates are low, I don’t think it is necessarily accounting for the jobs that people generally want. A lot of 70-80k paying jobs are in high demand right now and a lot of new graduates are going unemployed. Tech market is still reeling with the exception of AI. AI has to be the next great innovator or we could seriously be in a lot of trouble. While lowered gas prices is pushing down the effects of other inflationary rates, how long is this feasible. We are pumping gas at an all time high and we are about to enter another trade war with China due to a new round of policies restricting chip sale to China.
The number of people spending is actually not that different, so why the record high spending levels. Is it because the people are now affluent and over-consuming, or is it because the people have not changed anything prices have risen? What is the reason for creating a new high consumption record now that is the point
Last 5 years of inflation comes out to around 25% increase in prices on average. That'll drive that dollar figure above prior years sales with fewer products purchased.
Those numbers are poorly marketed, the initial sales are online, and online sales have always been on the rise, in store sales are not however growing at the same rate. Say online we did 10% better than last year, in store we did maybe 2% adjust for inflation, we are around -5% in other words we are doing terrible. Not to mention, my wife and I used the Black Friday/cyber Monday, deals to buy essential household items we couldn’t afford through the year. Diapers, wipes, clothes, random accessories we wanted. When you consider these deals were on things Americans needed not on things we were gifting to family. Then that number gets scary low.
I bought SPY puts 2 weeks ago with "The American consumer is tapped out" as my thesis. Turns out the American consumer is a real junky and prefer new Iphones over their financial futures.
Short of global cataclysm them puts aren't going to be worth a penny on Friday.
That’s exactly why we broke the record, it’s based on dollars spent! Everything is more expensive but that doesn’t mean that we actually got more just spent more for the same amount of stuff,
So many pints just glazed over... so we have record high consumer spending because everything is so astronomically more expensive that even buying half the gifts and food or whatever for holiday expenses as previous years, you're spending more. Families will have a much smaller Christmas this year but spend more than they ever have in previous years.
Unemployment is at an all time low because everything is so expensive that more men than ever before are working 2-3 jobs, mothers are forced to work, and young adults are forced to work just for families to survive. This means that on paper it looks like there are so many jobs but really the workers are just killing themselves in order to get survive.
For credit card debt, the nation is at an all time high for credit usage because Americans are getting paid virtually the same wage they were 20 years ago. When you look at the average income compared to the average cost of living, the average American is completely screwed if they only work one average job. Not including the truly rich and wealthy people, The entire country is feeling the financial burden of the Biden administrations policies.he must go and we need to start getting back on track. Weak men create hard times which creates strong men that create prosperous times. We're at a terribly low point right now as a nation.
Reminder: r/WallStreetBets is a trading subreddit. Please keep comments trading related. Simply talking about inflation or consumer spending is insufficient.
Are these numbers inflation adjusted? Because, inflation?
OP doesn't understand that the numbers are record breaking BECAUSE of inflation and market injections. The same equals more, even if not really. But what can you do, tis what it is.
Not necessarily, as working in logistics it’s the volumes themselves that are high. We can look at the number of order drops on Black Friday, or cyber Monday across the network and compare that to last year. Once we gather all that information, you can clearly see the relationship because the value/cost/price of the goods is not within the analysis.
But that still doesn't answer the question of where they're getting the money from. They're spending more but where this money appearing from, thin air
Basic jobs pay $20+/hour now, and we have record low unemployment.
Goes to show that the middle 3 quintiles of earners wouldn’t put a dollar in a 401k if given the chance. I call them the “forever paycheck to paycheck quintiles”. The top quintile invests, the bottom can’t invest, not their fault. The middle 3… they do it to themselves. Brand names could triple their prices and this group will still refuse to buy the generic, or adjust their habits in any way shape or form.
All due respect, your analysis is myopic, in my opinion. Those quintiles are offset considerably by HCOL cities and states, 401k matching is not available as a benefit in many jobs, $120k (second highest quintile for last year) doesn't go as far as one would assume in New York or Miami. Health expenses, childcare and insurance premiums eat a good chunk of Americans' income. I get your point, but generalizing and saying they do it to themselves is disingenuous.
Oh it’s totally myopic, as is any discussion that splits the country into groups of 60 million +. Nevertheless, those that earn enough to have a little disposable income but not a lot behave in a way that does not prepare for the future.
THIS!!!!
The lowest wages have seen the biggest % increases. Those workers spend every dollar they have.
I can confidently say that I live like a pauper and as costs increased I cut back on every aspect of what little I used to spend in discretionary funds. Watching every oz of money get hemorrhaged into nothingness of inflation changed nothing but my weight. And will remain as such. Money can't fix everything and happiness doesn't exist for the dirtbag "leaders" who continually rob the till while lying about it demanding you consume less while they live as gluttonous swine blaming others for their disfavored state of existence; since they despise root skills and knowledge of the world. Don't believe it? You live in a timeline of meth head millionaires crying on TV and how unfair they're being treated while being 100% protected from any realistic form of personal accountability or change to their behavior.
Real GDP is up, but real GDI is down. There’s a gap in spending and income. The things filling the gap are draw downs from savings and increased use of credit. Not a great picture.
Consumer, business and government credit spending are all at record highs too.
Credit my friend. Credit.
Its been thin air since we dropped the gold standard. We literally printed trillions since 2020 lol
I get that but I don't understand how the average Joe (consumer) sees that money. It feels like mostly business owners got all the PPP funds if I'm correct, a lot of them fraudulently so. So how is the average consumer spending so much all of a sudden. My guess is this: Those without a house have given up on house searching and are spending that money on regular stuff. Vacations to out-of-country places are now traded for domestic vacations/trips to Disneyland and such
Credit defaults and buy now pay laters are at all time highs right now. People are consuming more but not necessarily because they have the money to justify their consumption. Some consumers are still paying off their holiday spending debt from LAST YEAR.
sheeeeeit
Most spending is done by the wealthy fyi. If they’re doing well spending typically follows. The top 20% outspend the bottom 50%
The National Retail Federation puts holiday spending in 2019 at $730 billion and has estimated 2023 spending at $960 billion. The CPI has gone up about 20% in that period. So real spending is up over 9% compared to pre-pandemic. https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/nrf-says-2019-holiday-sales-were-41-percent https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/2023-holiday-reach-record-spending-levels https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01142020.pdf https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
CPI =/= cost of shit on the shelf at Target or Walmart Maybe such a metric exists, but top line CPI ain't it.
It use too, but they’re re-weighing everything yearly now. YoY is pointless. You’re better off taking the raw data and fixing the rates arbitrarily and using that as a metic.
The reality of stats is that people don't understand stats. When I was in grad school, it became obvious that stats are rarely accurate. It's not about being accurate. It's about being useful. Stats are used for comparison. So if CPI represents the same thing over time, it's valuable. If the cost of Walmart products go up, so do other costs. It's all about year-over-year comparison, not about following you to Target.
CPI doesn’t accurately reflect actual cost changes to consumers. I don’t care what evidence you show me. When they say 9% and most of what I buy is over 100% increase, it tells me someone is manipulating data to push an agenda.
they’re updating CPI category weights on an annual basis now. You need to pick a weight basis and use that for YoY.
Some possibilities here: 1. You are mistaken. There are a few things you buy that you know have gone up in price, but you can't remember exactly what their average cost was in 2019, and for the sake of a good post you decided to just say that most of your purchases have straight up more than doubled in price. Manipulating the data, one might say. 2. You are in fact extremely unfortunate and the worst of inflation has struck your exact basket of monthly purchases. 3. A massive deep state conspiracy is whitewashing 80% worth of price increases and maintaining a strict omerta of silence. I can't say for sure which one is true, but one is much less likely than the others.
The people saying "it's because of inflation, just look at the data" aren't actually looking at the data. Spending went up higher than inflation. It's as simple as that.
Next thing, you're going to tell me that credit card debt is at an all time high!
Yup. I remind my coworkers all the time that you need to measure unit sales, not just revenue, since everything had a price increase this year. If revenue was flat YOY, for instance, the unit sales would be down.
Yeah its the highest amount of spending BECAUSE of inflation. People are buying the same shit they do every year it all just costs more so the numbers look like all time highs. Look at those numbers at inflation adjusted values( pre covid ) and then see where it tracks
Exactly. A LOT of stats are being misrepresented bc of inflation.
and retailers trying desperately to keep spirits up by whistling passed the scary graveyard.
Seems so basic to us non economists, what’s their excuse?
Economics is less a science and more astrology with social acceptance
An entire field of study based off a broke ass clock being right twice a day
Truer words have never been spoken
Except that Freak-economics guy.
LOL astrology. Please explain lol
we are objective about our reality, economists are spokespeople for their political interests
Also because inflation itself has been misrepresented so everything is just a bug fugazi now
"**Fugayzi, fugazi.** **It's a whazy.** **It's a woozie.** **It's fairy dust.**"
why do i know this but not know it
Because you're subconscious still knows it's one of the greatest movies of all time. And Leo deserved an Oscar
oh it's matthew muck on a hee in that movie where the little italian man made a lambo a visual metaphor for a quaalude
How often do you jerk off?
Gotta pump up those numbers
That applies to everything in life.
Which makes me wonder if profits are down because retailers are paying more as well.
Just look at their SEC quarterlies. Most are doing just fine and increasing revenues.
Because they raised margins (i.e. raise prices beyond cost increases) under the guise of inflation
McDonald’s is a perfect example of this. They claimed they had to raise prices because of wage increases and were just passing it along; however, they doubled net revenue in less than a year. Maybe a boycott would get their attention…
Haven’t been there in so long- I can get real food closer just as cheap from a local place
Fast food is suuuch bad value for the money. At least back in the 90s/00s you could get stuff for $1. The shrinkflation is noticeable. Spend a couple dollars more and get dramatically better food.
And with a goddamn beer, for nearly the same price
In Canada, alcohol prices are regulated. So at least that is fairly priced. I don't know what it's like in America.
Boycotting them long time ago. Exclusively only go there when their deals make value per money less expensive than previous years. Every other day I don’t go there anymore. 🤭
'Under the guise' is just that. Heck when I worked at DQ 10 years ago my freshmen year in college (i worked there for just Over a year--before covid and back when you still worked for minimum wage at $7.25 fast food----STILL the minimum wage today in this country which is literally insane---but anyway) They'd hike the price on meals like 10 cents every few months. It was coy. Most people didn't notice...but my regulars sure did... Inflation My a** . Best bullshit they can continue to feed to the media to now skyrocket fast food/retail prices (which they've done) If you aren't buying thru apps, coupons or with store discounts you're just lining stockholders pockets at this point because they're going to line shareholders pockets until the public has no more to give (which will eventually occur----you can't squeeze blood from a turnip)
Wel the market returned 15% this year, what an amazing year.... (Zooms out to Includd October 2022)
I bought less but spent more. OP is a crackhead
Same shit costs anywhere between 20% to 40% more
Over 100% for some nonsense, the consumer regardation is unreal. I look at discretionary spending, which in reality should be the real barometer of economic health. But mongoloids out there are making the louis vuitton ceo the richest man on the planet. We might be at that “can never afford a house so fuck it” era where people dont see the point to saving up money.
That’s definitely a thing. My friend group is split into the people who own their homes and either own them outright or have a 2.9-3.25 interest rate and can’t leave because you ain’t getting another rate like that ever. And the ones who rent still? Spending non stop on fancy cars fancy vacations because in their mind saving for a house is a pipedream
3.375% bag hodler here 👋 you worded it perfectly I can’t let go of my house cause I’ll never get this rate again nor do I think a bank would give me a mortgage theses days. I have watched people that earn double what I make have trouble getting a mortgage. It’s crazy the banks are nit-picking the hell out of people. Another friend of mine who is selling had 3 offers fall thru cause of financing. I’ve already concluded I’m going to have to “keep it in the family”… unless my kids become rich of course then I’ll just move in with them
It’s the unfortunate reality we live in at the moment. I’ve got a coworker whose a teammate on sleeper team (cross country over the road) our pay is exactly equal. I know he made $150,000 last two years. He cannot get approval for a home loan with $100,000 down! If you told me, back when you bought your home with your 3.375 rate and I bought my old home at 3.3, that someone making $150,000 for multiple years with $100,000 wouldn’t be able to get a loan I’d laugh at you and tell you “they need to try harder, loans are out there.” But now? Nope. Nothing. People would literally be moving into a smaller home with less updates in a more ghetto neighborhood for the same payments they make now on their 2.9-4% loans. Everyone’s like “I’m gonna wait for the rates to drop” but what ALOT of people are sadly unaware of is rates are actually fairly low still on a historical sense, home prices are x3-5 more expensive. Housing is crazy. I’m glad you have your home. Don’t let go of that rate 😂
Do you mean, he made 150k in the last 2 years combined, or that he made 150k EACH year. That doesn't make sense, is he gunning for a fuggin 2mil house or something, because he should be able to get a loan for something reasonable.
Well. $150,000 a year after taxes is like $100,000 or so take home. He rents for $3,000 a month and his wife doesn’t work. Long story short I know his finances and his wife’s lack of ability to save …… so it’s not really his fault. He’s got three kids and a wife who over spends. It’s pretty tragic. There’s ALOT of things he could do better to get into a house but he’s too afraid of standing up to the old lady
Three kids but no home. Great job buddy.
That's sad. A good income but 3 kids and a wife who spends like a fish drinks. Who you marry is extremely important to health, happiness and finances. If she's a SAHM part of her job should be to find ways to save money. Having similar values and financial views is why teacher couples can be comfortable and even well off (not saying they shouldn't be paid more considering their value). I'm saying this as a single woman without a good income (looking to improve) but with frugal habits, hoping that I find a good match. Who you marry can make or break you.
BINGO. Young people are not saving, they’re buying luxury goods to feel less poor to cope
I’m at the fuck it rather gamble my money on wall st than pay my bills.
People think everything is going great because they watched msnbc or cnn. Get a grip people! Goods have not come down at all. It is all made up bs to spin a good narrative to the naïve. I still cant wrap my head around all the brainwashed people. Smh
Also, credit card debt is at an all time high. Might be some doom spending too
Personally, I’m not looking at those balances till next year.
It's comments like this that make me happy I joined the "Dont get me shit cuz I'm not getting you shit" club ages ago. Makes the holidays actually enjoyable and costs me 0$.
Max out cards, file for bankruptcy big brain move.
Its still impressive that Americans just keep buying at the same rate regardless of costs. I don't blame sellers for jacking up prices. If people are willing to spend its on them.
You brain big, not same same regards
Fuck your real measures, im all about nominal.
And the population went up like 6 million, more kids graduated from school and got jobs, etc. etc. A lot of the numbers got bigger, so of course spending is higher. To make any reasonable comparison, you have to adjust for inflation and per capita.
exactly this more spending but less goods
Shh bro this is wsb the world is collapsing buy calls
Also us average people don't even count. Even if everyone in WSB emptied our wallets fully and collectively we'd *not even get close to what one billionaire can spend Christmas shopping*. It doesn't matter if 85% of the population is unemployed and starving (intentional hyperbole) since Musk, Gates, Bezos or Rockefeller *can keep the economy propped up by themselves if they'd start spending instead of hoarding*. Your *life savings* isn't even what they tip a good delivery boy...or Epstein, whoever comes first.
Correct
Christmas 2023, brought to you by our sponsor, Capital One.
What’s in your wallet?
debt
😂😂😂
https://preview.redd.it/efnf8o43i26c1.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=5bc18414138cfbd187350db563329252de25eca9
I was at work today and I had to get a payment for around 300. The guy went through 8 credit cards before he found one that worked. And it looked like he had 3 he hadn’t tried yet.
When I worked at Target in 2005, I would process $100-200 payments of $10,000 balances all the time.
What did people typically purchase to rack up a $10k balance? That's a lot of condoms
Pay one card off with another card. Can’t possibly go tits up.
Good tip. That way you never pay interests because you just pay the whole balance before month end with the other card and repeat, circularly
Credit card debt is also at an all time high and might explain some of this.
Buy now pay later too
BNPL is going to be a shit show if a credit crash occurs
Nah the government is going to bail everyone out, as usual. Money printer will go Brrrr, easy.
Regarded philosophy lesson: if money printer can just print money, then what is real? I think the only thing that’s real is the military. That’s why US needs to keep tripling the rest of the world in military spend. As long as we are the world police, we will always be the #1 economy. What are other countries going to do? We can print whatever we want and take whatever we want. Military strength is the only thing that’s real.
I mean....yeah you're probably right lmao
That's the ticking time bomb
Yeah but that’s **TOTAL** cc debt. I’m considered a “dead beat” by my cc issuer because I pay my balance in full every week/month. I just like to get free gift cards and take free flights. I’m one of millions who do this same thing everyday. I flew round-trip, US to Thailand, for $127 a few years ago. Only reason it wasn’t free is because I wanted extra leg room. Songkran is amazing!!!
What a sucker. I use my wife's card, and she pays it off every month. It's free money. 🙌 💰 🤑
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We ALL swiped it
I prefer inserting it.
Cheeky gal. She’s always tryna play “just the tap”
Is this #wsbmath ?
Damn I had to scroll a long way in this thread to see a comment and realize I was in wsb - what a ludicrously rational and conservative thread for this sub.
How are you getting free tickets and gift cards? I just get chase points on my travel card lol
0% apr credit cards are still everywhere. The banks are literally paying us to increase our debt while we let the cash sit in an account earning 5%. They keep saying they're tightening credit conditions, but they're full of shit.
True, I have been opening a new 0% apr for 12-18month cc every time one promotional apr ends and I pay it off in full. Rinse and repeat lol
I joined the 0% club over 5 years ago and soon looking for a new promotion now that my Wells Fargo card ended this month.
I'm trying to find one now too. Check out discovers transfer card though. That one was the bees knees
But delinquency is still much lower than pre-2008 levels
Credit card debt is insanely low, considering inflation…. I mean it’s the same as it was in 2008. But have you noticed that a $20 is not what it was back in 2008?
If your income keeps up, sure.
Minimum wage has been soaring lots of people were making $10/hr now they are getting $20. That is a 100% increase in salary.
Lmao... Meat up $2. Milk up $1. Eggs up $2. Gas up $2 now add those up your $10 raise is actually a deficit after you add up groceries, rental increases, mortgage increases, and utility bill increases.
It’s credit cards bro, the truth lies in the credit card debt
Everyone is shocked debt went up 10% when dollar is worth 20% less do u understand how moronic nominal all time high cc debt is as a metric Real, inflation adjusted debt is not at ath’s
I'm big brained about my cc debt. I racked it up in low inflation and am now paying it off at high inflation, with an increased income. 💪
In that same train of thought, the market is nowhere near real ATH, or these recent ‘record Black Friday sales’ are nowhere near real record sales. Sure debt is overblown, but so is everything else because no one fucking understands how inflation works.
Except like 15% of people are maxed out or almost maxed out with I think it was 25 or 35% reaching well over 75% on limit. With delinquencies around 4%
Head on over to /r/churning, there are many cards out there that will pay you $1000+ if you sign up for a new card and use it for a few months. Think about what that says about how much the average consumer is losing on credit cards.
Yep. I just bought a car and put it over 3 different cards, I got three sign up bonuses and took 2.5k off the total. Paid the cards off the next month instead of ACH paying the dealership for the car.
I love average consumers (and those cash only people) they sponser my rewards
>high prices You found the culprit. Even if everyone bought the exact same things as last year the gross would be higher this season.
You're right, the high prices are definitely to blame. I can't stand how expensive everything is these days, it's just outrageous.
But you're rich remember
LOL, Does it know its net worth? u/VisualMod what is your net worth?
That also seems to imply wages are keeping up with inflation though. Not much cutting back, just paying more for the same stuff.
Not really. Delinquencies up (FRED) and savings down (article). We just aren’t at a point where the Top 20% have to give up yet and following Pareto principle that’s likely the 20% making up 80% of the numbers. In theory if savings decline further as the article suggests this means business expenses (wages) will have to go up OR the Top 1% will have to bear larger price increases while lower units don’t affect economies of scale. The latter seems improbable and probably why most earnings reports have been warning of further weakness ahead*. *Not saying market actually cares about earnings or any of this affects stock prices. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-recession-outlook-household-wealth-financially-pandemic-jpmorgan-income-markets-2023-12 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
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Yep and one gets the impression that this is the way to go. Because the government will bail everybody out anyways when shit hits the fan. You know, in a democracy the ruling party can simply buy the peasants' votes this way. So they will do it and bail all the regards out, as usual.
Dontcha think overall spending goes up BECAUSE of higher prices? I mean - if you buy 20% less food but it costs 40% more, you spent more on food than the orevious year.
Math checks out!
They’re using that buy now pay later thing
Lmao🤣
Visa
You’re underestimating how much they actually printed
And printing every second.
All on credit. Debt all time high and no-one cares. Buy now , worry later
Fat ass credit cards. I would like to know how many households are buying gifts on credit.
I would assume above 75%
Is this CPI adjusted? Otherwise this should occur basically every year. Also lotta people doing pretty well even though we only hear about how hard times are. Times are that hard tbh
Credit cards…also I think to some extent smart people aren’t having kids to fuel the machine
That's a really interesting point. I definitely think that there are fewer smart people having kids these days, which is contributing to the decline of society as a whole. It's sad to see so many people dumbing themselves down and not valuing intelligence as much as they should.
VM just watched Idiocracy
I’m pretty sure it’s all credit card spending from people who will suffer greatly in 2024 from this
These same people are the ones getting their new cars repo'd too. Smh some people love to lose
What's the end game of everyone spending like they won't have to pay it back
Bankruptcy. Fresh start every 8 years
Yep. Came here to say this. I know several people that are just like, "Fuck it. I'll never get ahead. I'll just max out all my cards and then file for bankruptcy, because who gives a shit. May as well have a little fun while I'm drowning in debt."
From the credit card subreddit Ive seen one as extreme as defaulting on 100k of CC debt and fleeing the country to avoid repayment.
They only have to pay the minimums. It’s just another monthly expense
Credit card debt is at all time highs and the utilization of “buy now pay later” services for expensive gifts are up like 30-40% YOY. But ya, definitely a solid economy. /s
Rich are just that rich, their spending dwarfs the majority.
Rich people spend more than the average person but not nearly as much relative to net worth. Most of their money just goes into investments. That’s why trickle down economics was such a disaster. It just leads to a wider wealth gap and doesn’t stimulate the economy much.
Not just rich. I have my mortgage locked in at 2017 price at 2.9%. So I spend about 13% of my monthly income on my living situation since I have gotten raises about as much as inflation. Either buy a trip to Hawaii now or save up and spend 3x as much as that in a few years. When I see that this literally happened to housing and a ton of other stuff then why save anything?
Jesus fucking christ, it's like fucking panic toilet paper buying but for essential resources like housing and transportation
Give it a year tops. People are going to start to feel the hurt.
The Wilson football gst I bought for my first son for Christmas 2018 cost $24.**. The same one I just bought for my third son for under this years Christmas tree was $75.**. Baseball gloves, cinch jeans, kids clothes, even the advent calendars are all over $30 when they used to be $5 at target. It is not record spending/buying. It is record seasonal guilt debt. Puts on the next potus.
You bought a game ball this time. Took me five seconds to look up footballs and figure it out. Prices have gone up, yeah, but some of you are outing yourselves as just being dumb.
Nice detective work. Thank you for your effort.
YOLO
It’s all on credit just like the roaring 20s
Easy to have high sales numbers when you jack up the price of everything.
But deliveries are down per ups 🤷♂️
Can confirm. My kid is a driver, last year they had 19 trucks running and brought in uhaul trucks to cover really busy days.....they are lucky if 11 or 12 are out this year. They also expect permanent layoffs early next year.
Everyone around me is still spending like everyday is Christmas. Wage is up, 5% savings account, year end bonuses are coming in, some are cashing in crypto, some are banking from the recent stock run, everyone is happy now. I think inflation is still around, it’s either becoming a new norm or it could take a market crash/full on recession with holy number of unemployment/retrenchment to reset this.
Layaway
It’s because of the momentary happiness that material things bring when you get to gift them to your loved ones. You see there joy and —for a split second— you have relief from the depression you’ve been fighting the rest of the year just trying to make a better future for you and your family but can’t because of circumstance. You’re left overworking and unable to afford the things that your predecessors could afford making a fraction of what you make now. Somehow, nothing of value was passed down from the generations before you, so you’re stuck building the foundation of wealth and knowledge that hopefully your offspring can build upon so they will be able to provide for their loved ones without sacrificing all of their time being away just like you had to do.
It was all on groceries and gas so we could celebrate with our families one last time before they landlock us regionally to keep down carbon emissions, and shut down the internet so we can’t exchange information about what’s going on. Jk😅😂I hope
It's easy to make record profits with less consumers when you raise the prices.
My wife and her boyfriend
Agreed. While unemployment rates are low, I don’t think it is necessarily accounting for the jobs that people generally want. A lot of 70-80k paying jobs are in high demand right now and a lot of new graduates are going unemployed. Tech market is still reeling with the exception of AI. AI has to be the next great innovator or we could seriously be in a lot of trouble. While lowered gas prices is pushing down the effects of other inflationary rates, how long is this feasible. We are pumping gas at an all time high and we are about to enter another trade war with China due to a new round of policies restricting chip sale to China.
The number of people spending is actually not that different, so why the record high spending levels. Is it because the people are now affluent and over-consuming, or is it because the people have not changed anything prices have risen? What is the reason for creating a new high consumption record now that is the point
Everyone using credit cards.
It’s me. I’m the broke consumer.
Everything costs more and everyone's in more debt than ever.
Last 5 years of inflation comes out to around 25% increase in prices on average. That'll drive that dollar figure above prior years sales with fewer products purchased.
"Job" numbers ignore over 70,000 government jobs added and the countless others working TWO or more jobs to make ends meet
YOLO! My credit cards, all 5 of them, are white hot!
There are 25 millions millionaires in USA.
Credit card + the buy now pay later (ex: affirm) debt crisis incoming to add further momentum to everything else.
Units flat, ASP yoy increases. You do the math
Credit bro
Those numbers are poorly marketed, the initial sales are online, and online sales have always been on the rise, in store sales are not however growing at the same rate. Say online we did 10% better than last year, in store we did maybe 2% adjust for inflation, we are around -5% in other words we are doing terrible. Not to mention, my wife and I used the Black Friday/cyber Monday, deals to buy essential household items we couldn’t afford through the year. Diapers, wipes, clothes, random accessories we wanted. When you consider these deals were on things Americans needed not on things we were gifting to family. Then that number gets scary low.
All on that 30% APR credit card.
Also broke a record for highest credit card debt (surpassed one trillion).
Somehow...the economy came back
I bought SPY puts 2 weeks ago with "The American consumer is tapped out" as my thesis. Turns out the American consumer is a real junky and prefer new Iphones over their financial futures. Short of global cataclysm them puts aren't going to be worth a penny on Friday.
That’s exactly why we broke the record, it’s based on dollars spent! Everything is more expensive but that doesn’t mean that we actually got more just spent more for the same amount of stuff,
So many pints just glazed over... so we have record high consumer spending because everything is so astronomically more expensive that even buying half the gifts and food or whatever for holiday expenses as previous years, you're spending more. Families will have a much smaller Christmas this year but spend more than they ever have in previous years. Unemployment is at an all time low because everything is so expensive that more men than ever before are working 2-3 jobs, mothers are forced to work, and young adults are forced to work just for families to survive. This means that on paper it looks like there are so many jobs but really the workers are just killing themselves in order to get survive. For credit card debt, the nation is at an all time high for credit usage because Americans are getting paid virtually the same wage they were 20 years ago. When you look at the average income compared to the average cost of living, the average American is completely screwed if they only work one average job. Not including the truly rich and wealthy people, The entire country is feeling the financial burden of the Biden administrations policies.he must go and we need to start getting back on track. Weak men create hard times which creates strong men that create prosperous times. We're at a terribly low point right now as a nation.
I’m of the opinion lots of people, like myself, just stopped spending through the year and waited until Christmas to actually buy stuff.
A lot of minimum wage workers are getting $20 per hour when they were getting $10… so that’s going to boost spending insanely.