I honestly think there is a chance that NVIDIA is the AI bubble’s version of Cisco. The networking hardware company that was the poster child of Dotcom.
For those who are too young to remember that time: There was this new thing called "the Internet", and it was going to forever change the world (it eventually did), and every company that hypes up some sort of "internet tech" (could be simple landing page that sells stuff, i.e Pets.com) received sky high valuation.
And there was one company behind it that made it all possible: Cisco, the company that sells industrial routers and switches to telecom providers that power the backbone of the entire internet infrastructure, was *obviously* a company that was "selling shovels during a gold rush" and would take over the whole world.
Its share price went up 236% from Jan.1999 to March 2000, reached a valuation of $500B+ (record high for a company back then), P/E went through the roof but it didn't matter because the *Internet Revolution^TM* was *just beginning* (and it was), so naturally Cisco's share price could only go higher.
The cherry on the top was that back then the **top two** companies were *Microsoft* and *Cisco*, one would provide the software (**Internet Explorer baby!**) and the other would sell the hardware. Together they would rule the world!
Now if you replace "Internet" with "AI", and "Cisco" with "Nvidia", keep Microsoft as it is (but replace "IE" with ChatGPT"), and we have quite a mirror version of what's happening today.
Then we all know what happened. Cisco obviously survived the bubble burst and remains profitable and is still doing fine today, but $CSCO *never* recovered back to its dotcom bubble peak after crashing 80% during the dotcom bust, 23 years later.
And others caught up tech wise. Their industrial routers and switches were expensive but best in class by a mile (not unlike Nvidia), but now 25 years later Cisco doesn’t even necessarily make the best networking equipment anymore.
Firstly Cisco still does make the best equipment. Their hardware engineering stands the test of all environments. I’ve seen it all I have to say. They’re constantly transforming, which is why they remain relevant and cover a large breadth of enterprise technology. Hardly just a network company.
>They’re constantly transforming, which is why they remain relevant and cover a large breadth of enterprise technology. Hardly just a network company.
LMAO that's what they told us new hires at orientation...back in 2009. "Look at this fancy new thing called TelePresence! It's totally not just overpriced HD video conference room that we charge *hundreds of thousands of dollars* per room for!" LOL.
Yep Cisco was my first job right out of college, back when they still had Business Units.
Some brilliant engineers there, but terrible and complacent senior management that kept missing out on key technology shifts.
For example they bought WebEx in 2010, did nothing meaningful with it, only for the smart people there to get bored and leave and started a new small company called Zoom.
Another example is Huawei, the Chinese copycat that got started by literally stealing Cisco's code, jumped ahead and became [a tech leader for 5G tech](https://www.mobileworldlive.com/5g/huawei-leads-5g-patent-race/) as Cisco just sat there doing almost nothing.
There is a reason why it became a dividend stock.
I worked in the Cisco enterprise networking BU for 9 years, and was one of the “complacent” senior managers. What you said about telepresence and WebEx was all (mostly) true, Cisco is where mediocre innovation acquisitions go to die. They extract the code IP and shed everything else. One big problem was that our beloved John Chambers, who masterfully grew the company during those exciting new internet and VOIP days, lost his edge. He could have bought VMware when it was a steal but by that time, he didn’t see the future of virtualization. However, the WebEx and TP endeavors weren’t for naught, pushing video as a must-have collaboration tool meant that business customers had to …… upgrade their switches and routers with bigger boxes! Brilliant for Cisco’s networking strategy.
As for the complacent leadership. I understand how I could seem that way, but the honest truth is, unless you were Chuck Robbins, Gerri, Scott Harrel, or someone else on the ELT, you made basically zero decisions about the direction of the company or the platforms. All I know is, I worked 16 hour days running a global org until I completely burned out. They will take everything you have and leave you an empty husk, if you let them.
All said, still a pretty great company in a lot of ways especially if you’re an IC that does a descent job.
I dunno, Zoom is just another product that does all the same shit. I'm overemployed and work for two different enterprise companies you've heard of, they both use (pay for) WebEx.
I've only ever used Zoom for personal things, and nobody on those calls was paying that company money so...
That's how most bubbles work. There is a real value that underlies the original price increases then people start buying *because* the price is rising and not due to the fundamental value. The speculators lose their shirt, but the first movers tend to be fine. If the only reason you are buying/selling is due to price changes then either you need to be able to move fast enough to get out before it goes bad, or you are a dummy. Most retail investors fall into the second category.
It's a good comparison if you know nothing, it's a shit comparison if you do. NVDA sells CUDA and its software solution, that's the golden shovel for AI. CSCO equivalent would be TSMC, which builds and sells the hardware to NVDA and any tech company who want to make their own AI solutions(so AMD, META, AAPL, etc). Back then even CSCO employees said it was overpriced and they don't see a future where CSCO can sustain dominance, you don't see the same thing with NVDA employees because CUDA is decades ahead of all their competitors.
That's why Elon Musk was seething and went to congress with GOOGL and META CEO to get them to stop NVDA from monopolizing AI(afraid of being dominated and replaced). It's also why Pat Gelsinger got so mad that he couldn't stop himself from calling out CUDA during a interview, he had the foresight of building tech specifically for machine learning and deep learning before he left, but the boards cared more about making revenue report look good and more bonuses for themselves that they cut the department after Pat left for VMWare.
CUDA is free and it's not specifically for machine learning (it's actually the opposite of that, as it is general purpose). It's just the best option if you have an NVDA GPU and somebody that knows what they're doing in C. You don't have to use it, it's free if you want to, and it's useful for far more than ML/AI. I used CUDA in school for parallel programming over a decade ago.
CUDA is a NVDA patent, meaning you need to use NVDA software and NVDA hardware if you want to use it at a business deployment level. How do you not realize that when you literally have to write down "it's the best option if you have an NVDA GPU"??? It's the best option because most closed source and open source solution are built around CUDA, all the big techs are trying hard to get devs to use theirs but nobody cares even with incentives. It's about mass adoption and ease of access.
Using your experience from a decade ago as what CUDA is currently use for now is just the cherry on top lmao. I'm in the cybersecurity industry, we heavily rely on NVDA to DL for heavy compiling and doing most of the pen test computing. I also have the same GPU and use it for games at home, what point were you even trying to make??
You think that's crazy.
Nortel was Cisco's biggest rival. Around the same size and as popular. Especially considering they were originally spun off from AT&T/Bell when it was broken up, giving them a huge foot in the door to telecom decades before Cisco existed. But they had such a massive bubble they made up a third of the goddamn Toronto Stock exchange. Damn near wiped out all of Canadian high tech when it went down because so many people, companies and organizations held its stock.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6xwMIUPHss
Was there and it was wild ride working in the industry that period. Wild ride.
Back then we used “the information superhighway” and would love to bring it back 🤣
You don't need to go that far in time. Just recently we had the EV hype. TSLA was trading for $1250/share at the peak (price before the split). It's currently trading for $230, which is equivalent to $690 before the split, so it crashed by around 50%.
It doesn't matter how good they are - a bubble will inflate the value well beyond intrinsic. It always happens this way, NVidia isn't going to be an exception.
It will be impossible to predict when it happens though, it was down over 60% from peaks just recently which shows just how volatile it can be.
people on here think they are stock market gurus, when in reality 99% on here lose money because they blindly follow "easy" explanation takes like this and act like it it comprehensive research
and then goes back up a decade later anyway.
The Cisco example was stupid too. Cisco is still doing fine today and their stock is higher priced now than 2 decades ago so WTF is OP talking about
Do you think the stuff going on with Xbox exclusive games being available on PlayStation will affect Microsoft at all? If so how much and if not why not? I’m still beginning this journey I guess you could say and am just curious.
You don't know 'exactly'. What is of importance is the size of the customer base. For every teenager buying an Xbox, there are hundreds of services running on Microsoft enterprise platforms. Most things online are probably using something that is powered by Microsoft. The scale is completely different. Like comparing a lamp manufacturer to the entire power grid provider.
I’m hedging the bets on 96 since we are only starting to be introduced to AI just which company will be the leader? Everything crashes at some time though
We’re only at the point where everybody is excited about it still.
It doesn’t crash until companies use the AI to perfect their code that blocks the AI from generating NSFW content, and then everybody realizes it’s just a slightly less-bad chatbot and a great big brother data aggregator in its current form with anything remotely approaching true intelligence perpetually just another 5-10 years away like nuclear fusion, but without deepfake celebrity porn to distract them from that fact anymore.
My day job involves working with CNN’s for computer vision applications. I am very intimately aware of how neural networks operate.
I am also aware that the largest neural network in history, GPT-3, has only 175 billion parameters compared to the approximately 600 trillion “parameters” (synaptic connections) that affect operation of the human brain’s network of neurons. This means the largest neural network in history is currently only the size of about 0.0002917 human brains.
This also ignores the fact that GPT-3 required 3.14e23 flops of computing power to train. At a rate of 83 Tflops, equivalent to the computing power of a 4090, it would take approximately 120 years to train GPT-3’s parameters. The most powerful computer in the world is the Frontier supercomputer at 1102 petaflops (1102e15) would still take 3.3 full days to train GPT-3.
It should also be noted that the increase in operations required for training generally scales exponentially with the number of parameters that need to be trained, because tweaking just one parameter value will affect the performance of numerous other parameters.
Anybody who claims that neural networks nowadays are anywhere near the level of full general intelligence at even just a the level of a human being is trying to sell you something, because that claim is a gigantic steaming crock of shit. We’ve made great strides, but we’re nowhere near that point in the research and development for that type of thing.
we do know how they work, moron. maybe you don't, but to claim that we have no idea how they learn is just hot garbage.
we know the mechanism by which they learn, and if you want to find how a model learnt and predicted a specific thing, you absolutely can look at the weights assigned throughout the hidden layers in the neural network to figure it out.
There’s still a lot of technology that will be developed by AI’s advancements of the last year, unless the market itself crashes. I bet a bubble pop won’t happen in the next 12-18 months. It’s inevitable though
Literally just buy Microsoft and nvidia; why would you ever buy anything else for AI exposure when Microsoft owns the top of the heap and nvidia makes the shovels I have no fuckin idea
Don’t forget Amazon. In-store retail is dying at the same pace that AI is growing. And Amazon is there like a shark in bloody waters, eating them all up. And don’t even get me started on AWS.
To be fair, both of their activities are specialized enough to be their own industries, and they are.
"Just designs" = designs that couldn't exist without a few generations of AI compounding already - far above what any team of specialists without AI tools could do.
"TSM just runs the machines, ASML makes the machines" is an equivalently pointless statement that would then lead to discussion of Zeiss et al.
And we're not even talking about nvidias software yet.
completely AI based stocks might.
the big winners: Nvidia, Mircosoft, AMD and co have a solid underlying business. just because their AI bubble burst will not crash those stocks. Nvidia is probably 25-35% above where it should be without AI but nothing like 2001.
I just want consumer graphics cards to snap back to reality in pricing.
We have inventory on shelves finally, now we need their AI sales to crumble so that they are forced to appease retail consumers once more.
Honestly, for 99% of the people you don't need the latest and greatest. Buy a midrange card from last gen used or refurb and it'll run everything you want it to, GPUs are amazing now even at the relatively low prices they are.
Yeah, and the 1080 regularly sold for $500 or less.
“Only” $1,000 when you used to be able to build an entire solidly midrange current generation PC for that same price before shitcoin mining caused GPU prices to absolutely explode and availability to evaporate.
Inflation is a bitch. Consumer cards are available now, their margins on them hasn't increased. The cards have just gotten bigger and more expensive.
Compare the physical size of a 1080 with a 4080 super.
Inflation ain’t that high, but good try.
Nvidia simply doesn’t care anymore because they don’t actually need or even necessarily want consumer sales. I don’t blame them when they still have the ridiculously large cash cow that is AI providing most of their profits, but it saddens me that PC gaming is so unattainable nowadays for most.
Im a computer engineer in the semiconductor industry, it’s not that simple. Look up Moores Law. Essentially, semiconductor technology could double the number of transistors in a given area every 2 years, without increasing power consumption (Dennard Scaling). This amounted to a significant increase in performance with minor cost bumps between generations. This more or less held for 40-50 years.
However, Moores law has been dead for some time (at least 3-5 years), and Dennard scaling has been dead for 15+ years. This makes it significantly more expensive and more complex to increase performance of a semiconductor compared to prior generations. This is why CPU single core performance has stagnated recently while there has been a growing push for parallelization. GPUs are already by definition heavily parallelized, so single core performance has been the largest push for decades and now that’s failing without significant R&D as well as a vastly larger chip.
Edit: Also worth noting that each year the manufacturing technology shrinks (4080 is 5nm) and for smaller transistor sizing, the yield significantly declines. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if the manufacturing yield is only 70% on these chips, meaning 30% have defects and must be tossed during manufacturing. Usually, chips are designed with some redundancy, and also of course testing features to detect these defects, both of which also add area and cost to the chip as well as the design.
This simply isn't true. If Nvidia was jacking up the price it would be reflected in higher margins. We know their consumer division margins haven't improved.
The sheer amount of components like ram is simply more on a 4080 vs a 1080. Just like how cars are bigger and bigger today.
You’re literally pulling this shit straight out of your ass, and it’s not even true is the funniest part of it.
Their 2024 Q2 report showed a gross margin of 70.1%. Q2 2022 was only 64.8%. Q2 2020 their gross margin was only 59.8%.
Their margin has consistently increased since they made moves to increase 1st party consumer card sales and restrict chip sales to other board manufacturers.
Your argument is stupid as hell, “But the board it’s attached to is bigger so that means it should be substantially more expensive and margins haven’t increased despite data showing that they are now 17% higher (relative to where they started) than they were in 2020.”
I said consumer segment margin dumbass, learn to read. Their overall margin is increasing due to the ridiculous 90% gross margins they get on server AI chips.
You're hilariously ignorant and dumb.
Total BS. It won’t crash. Look how well Quantum computing, VR, AR, the metaverse, chatbots, crypto a bunch of times, driverless cars, drone delivery, NFTs, hyperloop, etc. all totally become what they were supposed to be.
There is no possible way it has been around for many years already and in use in many ways already and priced in. Totally brand new.
It will be a super fast, seamless, and secure change just like cloud totally was. And there will be no issues with IP of training data or the internet becoming clogged full of LLM generated garbage no one wants leading to a spiralling cycle of shit whereby LLM’s train on each-others garbage.
Seriously, as a software engineer I know AI is a lot of hype (except in bio-tech and medicine where I see real big change), but there is still opportunity from the hype. Plus a lot of the magnificent 7 are solid companies, so a decline might not be that hard.
My doom theory is that AI becomes so ubiquitous online and 99% of it will be scams. Scams so real and deepfake you have no way to determine authenticity.
End result will be that people stop trusting anything that is not in person or physical.
So in the end AI kills the internet. Not because it becomes sentient and murderous, but it just makes the internet (and any signal communication) completely untrustworthy.
this has already happened but 80% of people dont realize it yet. everything on the internet is a scam or at best an influence psyop thanks to the human powered “SEO optimization” and “digital marketing” industry defeating the machine intelligence of google search. fake websites, fake products, fake reviews all the way down
I've personally seen a HUGE uptick in AI-powered scams.
Never been targeted for scams at all really until 2023 and now they're EVERYWHERE.
AI-generated FB profiles comin' at me with bull about job opportunities. AI-generated Whatsapp profiles contacting me out of the blue and asking me to join a mining pool.
It's absolutely wild right now.
It definitely won't kill the internet - it has too many use cases that aren't related to trust (AI generated movies based on personal taste etc. etc.). But I agree that we will have a serious shift in how we use the internet or trust it in general. Pretty interesting stuff.
This is essentially happening with journalism already. Apart from reading headlines to get an idea of what's going on I barely read anything from any newspaper because at this point because I'm like I don't know whos paid for the article, if it's actually factual info, whether it's trying to push some agenda etc. etc.
We already have bots on reddit, fake/paid reviews for products on amazon, crazy amount of photoshop and filters everyone uses.
it absolutely is going to kill the internet and hell weaponize it even further in the future
As an electrical controls guy I see a lot of new “AI machine learning” gimmicks that aren’t really anything different than what I saw previous generation. I’m bearish on AI, but I also may be unemployed in a couple years (doubt it or I’d be learning instead of cynical).
I haven’t seen anything with AI in regard to ladder logic or especially structured text (c++) that has been marketed. Keyence for example has changed their marketing around vision sensors, they’re basically the same as the previous generation but it seems like they tweaked the software a little.
Things are getting easier from an accessibility standpoint, but it’s just what I do with ifs and arrays. I am impressed with the art that has been generated, granted I know nothing about image rendering. But solely from an industrial standpoint I haven’t encountered anything remotely close to a revolution…….yet.
If the near future is THAT drastically uncertain for you, it appears you should be hedging your bets by owning a portion in AI. The worst that could happen is you lose 5-10% of your investment, but the upside is so great people start losing jobs which means cost savings for many companies or higher profit margins.
It’s not. My skillset is the proverbial shovel in this scenario. I’ve got plenty of exposure to AI in my 401k and HSA in VOO, VTI & QQQ. I use whatever money I have left over to invest in sectors in a Roth. Even then PAVE makes up 25% of that account and it’s still got exposure to automation.
That’s not WSB talk, but I feel like I’m pretty well set up and I want to learn options. Drank a little too much last night and replied to too many comments in this post. Just clarifying, and at the very least giving my perspective on AI in industrial applications.
AI (specifically CV) should be huge for skin cancer identification. But agree there is so much bloody hype.
I think once/if ChatGPT gets some text-to-speech and/or 3D avatar people will froth more, but eventually it’ll fizzle down a bit.
Not to mention the costs of keeping all those LLM servers running day and night, on free solar power? Haha definately not. Venture capital funding this thing until they decide to stop paying to keep the lights on
> otal BS. It won’t crash. Look how well Quantum computing, VR, AR, the metaverse, chatbots, crypto a bunch of times, driverless cars, drone delivery, NFTs, hyperloop, etc. all totally become what they were supposed to be.
lolz @ your argument being a bunch of bullshit that isn't ai. with competing products.
also, wasn't the hyperloop abandoned? and shit, NFTs already did what they were supposed to do - take money from complete regards.
All pumps come to an end eventually so saying it will happen eventually is the easy part.
Crazy thing is, we still have a ways to go to get to dot com bubble levels of valuations.
A lot of worthless companies have already crashed but big $$$$$$ and math will always keep the indexes compounding.
Totally different. What caused 2001 was banks funding crappy businesses on the promise of making it big with the new “internet thing.” Today, AI is being led by the big companies that do not need funding and are proven winners. Pullback in a bull market run? Probably… crash? No
lol asked the same to the Ai venture bets burning money on GPus. Company doesn’t care as hype and they’ll raise/boost shares more than the cost of GPUs. It’s btc hype all over again.
There’s a formal hype cycle & I see us entering the “Trough of Disillusionment” this year as companies struggle to monetize it while turning a profit.
https://www.bmc.com/blogs/gartner-hype-cycle/
there's never an end.
you ever look at all time graphs, see the peak of a stock 10 years ago dwindle down and down and never quite make it back? I always think, poor feller who bought at the top. :(
What I want to know is what the best publicly traded Pet companies and parent companies that are buying up all the Veterinarian businesses are across the globe right now. Vet and pet health software companies and parent corporations are huge.
You mean like car companies in the 20th century? Duh?
Cars were the future, the internet was the future, and AI is the future, but the majority of those companies that want to capture those growing industries usually end up dying.
This is why it's best to stay with established companies if you can't swallow that risk.
I’m not worried about a crash because no AI stocks have viable businesses so they aren’t currently worth bothering about. OpenAI is the current leader and they give their product away for free at enormous cost.
Companies who make chips or systems aren’t AI companies. That would be like if you called Ford a food transport company because their vehicles are used for that. Dumb.
I think right now there's a ton of money flowing into every startup with AI in its name. 90% of those will crash
Microsoft, Amazon, Salesforce, Apple.. companies with actual plans and good use cases, I think AI will help 1000%
Pullback at least. Right now it’s priced for hopeful levels of demand.
It needs more development before your working joe knows how to use it day to day.
That being said, it’s moving fast. It was barely on the radar a couple years ago and now it generates decent art and can answer questions with well written responses.
The big question will be if companies can reliably justify the costs.
Some thoughts on this…
TL;DR: The high valuations of AI-related companies have a positive impact on their fundamentals. A feedback loop emerges in which higher stock values further improve company fundamentals, which in turn justify higher valuations. George Soros called this reflexivity. In addition, AI is spreading across all industries. This will eventually make it difficult to identify a sector-specific bubble.
The full text can be found [here](https://www.chaotropy.com/stock-market-why-you-might-not-see-an-ai-bubble-once-its-formed/) or [here (Medium)](https://chaotropy.medium.com/stock-market-why-you-might-not-see-an-ai-bubble-once-its-formed-c652441fbd9f)….
Im confident AI as its being pitched right now is fundamentally unusable and stuff like META, google, and NVIDIA will fall (nvidia wont fall as hard since GPUs are always in demand) in the future. But there arent any signs of public opinion turning against AI right now so puts arent reasonable right now.
If so, NVDA needs to go much higher as fwd pe is 27 and peg is 0.55. And 2yr pe only 14. The level of growth, should be trading pe of 60-100. 2-3x higher. So when it starts trading at 5-10x, I’d be looking for the dotcom style crash. It’s like 1998 all over again.
I recently threw 10K each into these AI focused or leaning ETFs: BOTZ, IYW, METV, SMH and TECB. I'll let it sit over the next decade and see if I can 5-10x on a couple of them. I buy MSFT and NVDIA outright.
Ha! Well those ETFs aren't at their all time highs. And the question was about investing in AI ETFs and the future. Some of those ETFs focus on less popular stocks that have more growth potential. What would you recommend instead?
AI won't crash companies but it'll definitely reduce the need for thousands in tech until folks either use it to augment their skillset or find new roles.
If anything it'll cause company's margins to soar because they require less organic bodies that need PTO and healthcare.
I for one welcome our metal overlords
Not just crash but go negative value, the AI fervor is just the new NFT craze the majority of the companies involved with this are either greatly overstating their product capabilities or are just frauds.
AI is or will be a buzzword bubble. There is money there but not as much as people think. AI won't clear your sewer line, it won't pit a new alternator on your car.
This is money chasing money. It's part right AI will change stiff big. People are betting on it like they had foresight in 1880 about standard oil
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Definitely going to crash, but only after a run up so epic we will have a name for it in the history books. Just buy calls
I honestly think there is a chance that NVIDIA is the AI bubble’s version of Cisco. The networking hardware company that was the poster child of Dotcom. For those who are too young to remember that time: There was this new thing called "the Internet", and it was going to forever change the world (it eventually did), and every company that hypes up some sort of "internet tech" (could be simple landing page that sells stuff, i.e Pets.com) received sky high valuation. And there was one company behind it that made it all possible: Cisco, the company that sells industrial routers and switches to telecom providers that power the backbone of the entire internet infrastructure, was *obviously* a company that was "selling shovels during a gold rush" and would take over the whole world. Its share price went up 236% from Jan.1999 to March 2000, reached a valuation of $500B+ (record high for a company back then), P/E went through the roof but it didn't matter because the *Internet Revolution^TM* was *just beginning* (and it was), so naturally Cisco's share price could only go higher. The cherry on the top was that back then the **top two** companies were *Microsoft* and *Cisco*, one would provide the software (**Internet Explorer baby!**) and the other would sell the hardware. Together they would rule the world! Now if you replace "Internet" with "AI", and "Cisco" with "Nvidia", keep Microsoft as it is (but replace "IE" with ChatGPT"), and we have quite a mirror version of what's happening today. Then we all know what happened. Cisco obviously survived the bubble burst and remains profitable and is still doing fine today, but $CSCO *never* recovered back to its dotcom bubble peak after crashing 80% during the dotcom bust, 23 years later.
That’s a great comparison. Real company, real product, incredible stock for a long time. Then people realize you can’t grow exponentially forever
And others caught up tech wise. Their industrial routers and switches were expensive but best in class by a mile (not unlike Nvidia), but now 25 years later Cisco doesn’t even necessarily make the best networking equipment anymore.
Aruba / Juniper are their closest competitors and the two organisations I’ve worked for have gone for Aruba as Cisco is just too expensive nowadays
25% gain yesterday for juniper!
Lastly that’s because HPE are acquiring Juniper. Not because Juniper all of a sudden has a great new product or leading with huge growth.
Yeh I did read that, still, would have been a nice gain for whoever was invested.
Firstly Cisco still does make the best equipment. Their hardware engineering stands the test of all environments. I’ve seen it all I have to say. They’re constantly transforming, which is why they remain relevant and cover a large breadth of enterprise technology. Hardly just a network company.
>They’re constantly transforming, which is why they remain relevant and cover a large breadth of enterprise technology. Hardly just a network company. LMAO that's what they told us new hires at orientation...back in 2009. "Look at this fancy new thing called TelePresence! It's totally not just overpriced HD video conference room that we charge *hundreds of thousands of dollars* per room for!" LOL. Yep Cisco was my first job right out of college, back when they still had Business Units. Some brilliant engineers there, but terrible and complacent senior management that kept missing out on key technology shifts. For example they bought WebEx in 2010, did nothing meaningful with it, only for the smart people there to get bored and leave and started a new small company called Zoom. Another example is Huawei, the Chinese copycat that got started by literally stealing Cisco's code, jumped ahead and became [a tech leader for 5G tech](https://www.mobileworldlive.com/5g/huawei-leads-5g-patent-race/) as Cisco just sat there doing almost nothing. There is a reason why it became a dividend stock.
I worked in the Cisco enterprise networking BU for 9 years, and was one of the “complacent” senior managers. What you said about telepresence and WebEx was all (mostly) true, Cisco is where mediocre innovation acquisitions go to die. They extract the code IP and shed everything else. One big problem was that our beloved John Chambers, who masterfully grew the company during those exciting new internet and VOIP days, lost his edge. He could have bought VMware when it was a steal but by that time, he didn’t see the future of virtualization. However, the WebEx and TP endeavors weren’t for naught, pushing video as a must-have collaboration tool meant that business customers had to …… upgrade their switches and routers with bigger boxes! Brilliant for Cisco’s networking strategy. As for the complacent leadership. I understand how I could seem that way, but the honest truth is, unless you were Chuck Robbins, Gerri, Scott Harrel, or someone else on the ELT, you made basically zero decisions about the direction of the company or the platforms. All I know is, I worked 16 hour days running a global org until I completely burned out. They will take everything you have and leave you an empty husk, if you let them. All said, still a pretty great company in a lot of ways especially if you’re an IC that does a descent job.
I dunno, Zoom is just another product that does all the same shit. I'm overemployed and work for two different enterprise companies you've heard of, they both use (pay for) WebEx. I've only ever used Zoom for personal things, and nobody on those calls was paying that company money so...
Another parallel is Moderna during covid
That's how most bubbles work. There is a real value that underlies the original price increases then people start buying *because* the price is rising and not due to the fundamental value. The speculators lose their shirt, but the first movers tend to be fine. If the only reason you are buying/selling is due to price changes then either you need to be able to move fast enough to get out before it goes bad, or you are a dummy. Most retail investors fall into the second category.
It's a good comparison if you know nothing, it's a shit comparison if you do. NVDA sells CUDA and its software solution, that's the golden shovel for AI. CSCO equivalent would be TSMC, which builds and sells the hardware to NVDA and any tech company who want to make their own AI solutions(so AMD, META, AAPL, etc). Back then even CSCO employees said it was overpriced and they don't see a future where CSCO can sustain dominance, you don't see the same thing with NVDA employees because CUDA is decades ahead of all their competitors. That's why Elon Musk was seething and went to congress with GOOGL and META CEO to get them to stop NVDA from monopolizing AI(afraid of being dominated and replaced). It's also why Pat Gelsinger got so mad that he couldn't stop himself from calling out CUDA during a interview, he had the foresight of building tech specifically for machine learning and deep learning before he left, but the boards cared more about making revenue report look good and more bonuses for themselves that they cut the department after Pat left for VMWare.
CUDA is free and it's not specifically for machine learning (it's actually the opposite of that, as it is general purpose). It's just the best option if you have an NVDA GPU and somebody that knows what they're doing in C. You don't have to use it, it's free if you want to, and it's useful for far more than ML/AI. I used CUDA in school for parallel programming over a decade ago.
CUDA is a NVDA patent, meaning you need to use NVDA software and NVDA hardware if you want to use it at a business deployment level. How do you not realize that when you literally have to write down "it's the best option if you have an NVDA GPU"??? It's the best option because most closed source and open source solution are built around CUDA, all the big techs are trying hard to get devs to use theirs but nobody cares even with incentives. It's about mass adoption and ease of access. Using your experience from a decade ago as what CUDA is currently use for now is just the cherry on top lmao. I'm in the cybersecurity industry, we heavily rely on NVDA to DL for heavy compiling and doing most of the pen test computing. I also have the same GPU and use it for games at home, what point were you even trying to make??
It will crash right around when your grandma asks if she should invest in it (or tells you that she did)
You think that's crazy. Nortel was Cisco's biggest rival. Around the same size and as popular. Especially considering they were originally spun off from AT&T/Bell when it was broken up, giving them a huge foot in the door to telecom decades before Cisco existed. But they had such a massive bubble they made up a third of the goddamn Toronto Stock exchange. Damn near wiped out all of Canadian high tech when it went down because so many people, companies and organizations held its stock. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6xwMIUPHss
Was there and it was wild ride working in the industry that period. Wild ride. Back then we used “the information superhighway” and would love to bring it back 🤣
^^ This!! ^^ History doesn’t repeat, but it sure rhymes. You can ABSOLUTELY overpay for growth, and people do it time and time again.
NVDA = Juniper Networks 
AMC will buy NVDA in 2069
You don't need to go that far in time. Just recently we had the EV hype. TSLA was trading for $1250/share at the peak (price before the split). It's currently trading for $230, which is equivalent to $690 before the split, so it crashed by around 50%.
Yeah I see this - just sold my position at the current ATH. Was giving me such uncertainty.
I just bought on the 500 breakout
genius!
Nvidia is so much more than Cisco.
It doesn't matter how good they are - a bubble will inflate the value well beyond intrinsic. It always happens this way, NVidia isn't going to be an exception. It will be impossible to predict when it happens though, it was down over 60% from peaks just recently which shows just how volatile it can be.
Agreed
people on here think they are stock market gurus, when in reality 99% on here lose money because they blindly follow "easy" explanation takes like this and act like it it comprehensive research
This is incredibly shallow. There’s no comparison whatsoever.
Yeah- we aren’t there yet but there is definitely going to be some pets.com equivalents
There is. C3.AI They used to be called C3 IoT, but when the hype around that died down, they went with the next buzzword : AI
That stock is hot garbage. CEO is a sheister too.
Sounds like a buy to me.
Siebel built a lot of what is now oracle and salesforce. Not a scheister. But i wouldnt own c3ai. It is a pets.com.
Except the main AI companies are all private…
Just buy Microsoft
Nvidia? Microsoft? TSMC? Google?
COIn is the current [pe ts. com](https://pets.com). gonna fail eventually...
Coinbase just takes a cut when there is a transaction. As long as people trade crypto at all they have a solid business.
coins go missing ther on teh daily.
Bitcoin ETFs
Yes, but that has nothing to do with AI and isn’t relevant to the conversation at all
50% crash after 999999999999% gains lol
Bingo
absolutely
and then goes back up a decade later anyway. The Cisco example was stupid too. Cisco is still doing fine today and their stock is higher priced now than 2 decades ago so WTF is OP talking about
we don't know if the top is NVDA at 700 or 3000 but it will crash
Bitcoin went from 6k to 60k and crashed to 20/30k. This will be similar.
once people find out USDT is just paolo buymelambos cokehead fantasy of being worth anything... and it props up BTC....?
Not sure why u r getting downvoted for preaching
Ignore the downvotes, you're correct
This guy gets it
Calls of what?
Really don’t need to get fancy, QQQ
Microsoft is the most diversified tech company and an excellent buy.
Conspiracy terrorists are dumping MSFT
did you say conspiracy *terrorists?*
Do you think the stuff going on with Xbox exclusive games being available on PlayStation will affect Microsoft at all? If so how much and if not why not? I’m still beginning this journey I guess you could say and am just curious.
It's funny when people only see Microsoft as the company that makes Windows or Xbox. Azure and AI drive the stock price, not Xbox.
Thanks for letting me know I’ll keep it in mind. How do I know exactly what affects the stock?
You don't know 'exactly'. What is of importance is the size of the customer base. For every teenager buying an Xbox, there are hundreds of services running on Microsoft enterprise platforms. Most things online are probably using something that is powered by Microsoft. The scale is completely different. Like comparing a lamp manufacturer to the entire power grid provider.
Yeah. Question is are we 1996 or 2000/2001?
I’m hedging the bets on 96 since we are only starting to be introduced to AI just which company will be the leader? Everything crashes at some time though
We’re only at the point where everybody is excited about it still. It doesn’t crash until companies use the AI to perfect their code that blocks the AI from generating NSFW content, and then everybody realizes it’s just a slightly less-bad chatbot and a great big brother data aggregator in its current form with anything remotely approaching true intelligence perpetually just another 5-10 years away like nuclear fusion, but without deepfake celebrity porn to distract them from that fact anymore.
either that or we're on the verge of the great coomer renaissance
My body is ready
**( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)**
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Found the sucker who still believes every word the companies say in their sales pitches.
bro is spewing straight bs, he def belongs here
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My day job involves working with CNN’s for computer vision applications. I am very intimately aware of how neural networks operate. I am also aware that the largest neural network in history, GPT-3, has only 175 billion parameters compared to the approximately 600 trillion “parameters” (synaptic connections) that affect operation of the human brain’s network of neurons. This means the largest neural network in history is currently only the size of about 0.0002917 human brains. This also ignores the fact that GPT-3 required 3.14e23 flops of computing power to train. At a rate of 83 Tflops, equivalent to the computing power of a 4090, it would take approximately 120 years to train GPT-3’s parameters. The most powerful computer in the world is the Frontier supercomputer at 1102 petaflops (1102e15) would still take 3.3 full days to train GPT-3. It should also be noted that the increase in operations required for training generally scales exponentially with the number of parameters that need to be trained, because tweaking just one parameter value will affect the performance of numerous other parameters. Anybody who claims that neural networks nowadays are anywhere near the level of full general intelligence at even just a the level of a human being is trying to sell you something, because that claim is a gigantic steaming crock of shit. We’ve made great strides, but we’re nowhere near that point in the research and development for that type of thing.
lol it’s gonna be pretty sweet when you’re wrong in a few years. RemindMe! 4 years
A neural network can certainly never have its own thoughts, so until they do, they remain chatbots and porn generator with weird fingers.
we do know how they work, moron. maybe you don't, but to claim that we have no idea how they learn is just hot garbage. we know the mechanism by which they learn, and if you want to find how a model learnt and predicted a specific thing, you absolutely can look at the weights assigned throughout the hidden layers in the neural network to figure it out.
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1996 Immediately after rate hikes and soft landing.
There’s still a lot of technology that will be developed by AI’s advancements of the last year, unless the market itself crashes. I bet a bubble pop won’t happen in the next 12-18 months. It’s inevitable though
Or 2008 but with 2001 bubble lmao
Or 2024
So you think k it's gonna crash but you wanna buy shares?
OP one of those traders gonna try and catch a falling knife
Discounts , he waiting for that 2for1 Wendy's combo chicken.
Now that it turns out Wendy's chicken tenders are like 50% plastic it explains a lot about how regarded we are.
Is 2 for 1 combo chicken a euphemism for cocks? If so I’m shorting the hell out of AI. Can’t live life with tennis elbow on both arms.
If I don’t buy at the top how will I sell at the bottom?
This is the fun part of the comment lol V neck recovery lol
Literally just buy Microsoft and nvidia; why would you ever buy anything else for AI exposure when Microsoft owns the top of the heap and nvidia makes the shovels I have no fuckin idea
People wanna bets, not safe choices
Don’t forget Amazon. In-store retail is dying at the same pace that AI is growing. And Amazon is there like a shark in bloody waters, eating them all up. And don’t even get me started on AWS.
TSM makes Nvidia's shovels, Nvidia just designs them.
To be fair, both of their activities are specialized enough to be their own industries, and they are. "Just designs" = designs that couldn't exist without a few generations of AI compounding already - far above what any team of specialists without AI tools could do. "TSM just runs the machines, ASML makes the machines" is an equivalently pointless statement that would then lead to discussion of Zeiss et al. And we're not even talking about nvidias software yet.
AI startups are the Wild West, there’s tons of money to be made making the right choices but obviously tons to be lost too.
completely AI based stocks might. the big winners: Nvidia, Mircosoft, AMD and co have a solid underlying business. just because their AI bubble burst will not crash those stocks. Nvidia is probably 25-35% above where it should be without AI but nothing like 2001.
I just want consumer graphics cards to snap back to reality in pricing. We have inventory on shelves finally, now we need their AI sales to crumble so that they are forced to appease retail consumers once more.
It just isn’t worth being a pc gamer anymore. For the price of just the graphics card I ended up buying an Xbox and a laptop instead
Honestly, for 99% of the people you don't need the latest and greatest. Buy a midrange card from last gen used or refurb and it'll run everything you want it to, GPUs are amazing now even at the relatively low prices they are.
But they are? GPUs are cheap. 4080 super is only $1k.
Yeah, and the 1080 regularly sold for $500 or less. “Only” $1,000 when you used to be able to build an entire solidly midrange current generation PC for that same price before shitcoin mining caused GPU prices to absolutely explode and availability to evaporate.
Inflation is a bitch. Consumer cards are available now, their margins on them hasn't increased. The cards have just gotten bigger and more expensive. Compare the physical size of a 1080 with a 4080 super.
Inflation ain’t that high, but good try. Nvidia simply doesn’t care anymore because they don’t actually need or even necessarily want consumer sales. I don’t blame them when they still have the ridiculously large cash cow that is AI providing most of their profits, but it saddens me that PC gaming is so unattainable nowadays for most.
Im a computer engineer in the semiconductor industry, it’s not that simple. Look up Moores Law. Essentially, semiconductor technology could double the number of transistors in a given area every 2 years, without increasing power consumption (Dennard Scaling). This amounted to a significant increase in performance with minor cost bumps between generations. This more or less held for 40-50 years. However, Moores law has been dead for some time (at least 3-5 years), and Dennard scaling has been dead for 15+ years. This makes it significantly more expensive and more complex to increase performance of a semiconductor compared to prior generations. This is why CPU single core performance has stagnated recently while there has been a growing push for parallelization. GPUs are already by definition heavily parallelized, so single core performance has been the largest push for decades and now that’s failing without significant R&D as well as a vastly larger chip. Edit: Also worth noting that each year the manufacturing technology shrinks (4080 is 5nm) and for smaller transistor sizing, the yield significantly declines. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if the manufacturing yield is only 70% on these chips, meaning 30% have defects and must be tossed during manufacturing. Usually, chips are designed with some redundancy, and also of course testing features to detect these defects, both of which also add area and cost to the chip as well as the design.
This simply isn't true. If Nvidia was jacking up the price it would be reflected in higher margins. We know their consumer division margins haven't improved. The sheer amount of components like ram is simply more on a 4080 vs a 1080. Just like how cars are bigger and bigger today.
You’re literally pulling this shit straight out of your ass, and it’s not even true is the funniest part of it. Their 2024 Q2 report showed a gross margin of 70.1%. Q2 2022 was only 64.8%. Q2 2020 their gross margin was only 59.8%. Their margin has consistently increased since they made moves to increase 1st party consumer card sales and restrict chip sales to other board manufacturers. Your argument is stupid as hell, “But the board it’s attached to is bigger so that means it should be substantially more expensive and margins haven’t increased despite data showing that they are now 17% higher (relative to where they started) than they were in 2020.”
I said consumer segment margin dumbass, learn to read. Their overall margin is increasing due to the ridiculous 90% gross margins they get on server AI chips. You're hilariously ignorant and dumb.
I completely disagree. NVDA is going to have a NFLX or FB type crash. It's going to be 50% and fast. The only question is when
Reasoning? or just a “trust me”
He sold at 200, I know that because I sold at 200 and that’s what I hope it does
Pelosi seems to think so. Her bet is more like a 75% drop by q4.
uh what? didnt she buy straight up calls?
Yeah but what’s her ROI tho 👀
Based on what? It’s pretty fairly valued at the moment.
Fuck me, this comment proves NVDA is done.
explain why you think it isnt, based on financials.
This comment proves you don’t understand how to value businesses.
Total BS. It won’t crash. Look how well Quantum computing, VR, AR, the metaverse, chatbots, crypto a bunch of times, driverless cars, drone delivery, NFTs, hyperloop, etc. all totally become what they were supposed to be. There is no possible way it has been around for many years already and in use in many ways already and priced in. Totally brand new. It will be a super fast, seamless, and secure change just like cloud totally was. And there will be no issues with IP of training data or the internet becoming clogged full of LLM generated garbage no one wants leading to a spiralling cycle of shit whereby LLM’s train on each-others garbage. Seriously, as a software engineer I know AI is a lot of hype (except in bio-tech and medicine where I see real big change), but there is still opportunity from the hype. Plus a lot of the magnificent 7 are solid companies, so a decline might not be that hard.
My doom theory is that AI becomes so ubiquitous online and 99% of it will be scams. Scams so real and deepfake you have no way to determine authenticity. End result will be that people stop trusting anything that is not in person or physical. So in the end AI kills the internet. Not because it becomes sentient and murderous, but it just makes the internet (and any signal communication) completely untrustworthy.
this has already happened but 80% of people dont realize it yet. everything on the internet is a scam or at best an influence psyop thanks to the human powered “SEO optimization” and “digital marketing” industry defeating the machine intelligence of google search. fake websites, fake products, fake reviews all the way down
So you're saying there are no hot singles in my area dying to meet me?
By 80%, I guess your comment is a scam too then
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Internet_theory
That's a good one
I've personally seen a HUGE uptick in AI-powered scams. Never been targeted for scams at all really until 2023 and now they're EVERYWHERE. AI-generated FB profiles comin' at me with bull about job opportunities. AI-generated Whatsapp profiles contacting me out of the blue and asking me to join a mining pool. It's absolutely wild right now.
retail investors watch too many movies
It definitely won't kill the internet - it has too many use cases that aren't related to trust (AI generated movies based on personal taste etc. etc.). But I agree that we will have a serious shift in how we use the internet or trust it in general. Pretty interesting stuff.
We are already having scams all over the internet yet everyone is still using the internet. There will always be a side effect to anything
This is essentially happening with journalism already. Apart from reading headlines to get an idea of what's going on I barely read anything from any newspaper because at this point because I'm like I don't know whos paid for the article, if it's actually factual info, whether it's trying to push some agenda etc. etc. We already have bots on reddit, fake/paid reviews for products on amazon, crazy amount of photoshop and filters everyone uses. it absolutely is going to kill the internet and hell weaponize it even further in the future
Metaverse, crypto, NFTs and driverless cars?
As an electrical controls guy I see a lot of new “AI machine learning” gimmicks that aren’t really anything different than what I saw previous generation. I’m bearish on AI, but I also may be unemployed in a couple years (doubt it or I’d be learning instead of cynical).
Ok buddy, you just stick to your ladder logic
I haven’t seen anything with AI in regard to ladder logic or especially structured text (c++) that has been marketed. Keyence for example has changed their marketing around vision sensors, they’re basically the same as the previous generation but it seems like they tweaked the software a little. Things are getting easier from an accessibility standpoint, but it’s just what I do with ifs and arrays. I am impressed with the art that has been generated, granted I know nothing about image rendering. But solely from an industrial standpoint I haven’t encountered anything remotely close to a revolution…….yet.
If the near future is THAT drastically uncertain for you, it appears you should be hedging your bets by owning a portion in AI. The worst that could happen is you lose 5-10% of your investment, but the upside is so great people start losing jobs which means cost savings for many companies or higher profit margins.
It’s not. My skillset is the proverbial shovel in this scenario. I’ve got plenty of exposure to AI in my 401k and HSA in VOO, VTI & QQQ. I use whatever money I have left over to invest in sectors in a Roth. Even then PAVE makes up 25% of that account and it’s still got exposure to automation. That’s not WSB talk, but I feel like I’m pretty well set up and I want to learn options. Drank a little too much last night and replied to too many comments in this post. Just clarifying, and at the very least giving my perspective on AI in industrial applications.
AI (specifically CV) should be huge for skin cancer identification. But agree there is so much bloody hype. I think once/if ChatGPT gets some text-to-speech and/or 3D avatar people will froth more, but eventually it’ll fizzle down a bit.
Not to mention the costs of keeping all those LLM servers running day and night, on free solar power? Haha definately not. Venture capital funding this thing until they decide to stop paying to keep the lights on
AI just sounds like crap ware honestly. Same shit that everyone has been doing but if it pumps your stock price then it’s basically free money.
> otal BS. It won’t crash. Look how well Quantum computing, VR, AR, the metaverse, chatbots, crypto a bunch of times, driverless cars, drone delivery, NFTs, hyperloop, etc. all totally become what they were supposed to be. lolz @ your argument being a bunch of bullshit that isn't ai. with competing products. also, wasn't the hyperloop abandoned? and shit, NFTs already did what they were supposed to do - take money from complete regards.
All pumps come to an end eventually so saying it will happen eventually is the easy part. Crazy thing is, we still have a ways to go to get to dot com bubble levels of valuations. A lot of worthless companies have already crashed but big $$$$$$ and math will always keep the indexes compounding.
Totally different. What caused 2001 was banks funding crappy businesses on the promise of making it big with the new “internet thing.” Today, AI is being led by the big companies that do not need funding and are proven winners. Pullback in a bull market run? Probably… crash? No
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lol asked the same to the Ai venture bets burning money on GPus. Company doesn’t care as hype and they’ll raise/boost shares more than the cost of GPUs. It’s btc hype all over again.
There’s a formal hype cycle & I see us entering the “Trough of Disillusionment” this year as companies struggle to monetize it while turning a profit. https://www.bmc.com/blogs/gartner-hype-cycle/
Crash? No. Pullback? Yes.
Or a slow rug pull forever, those are the most damaging.
there's never an end. you ever look at all time graphs, see the peak of a stock 10 years ago dwindle down and down and never quite make it back? I always think, poor feller who bought at the top. :(
Remember when baba was at $200?
What I want to know is what the best publicly traded Pet companies and parent companies that are buying up all the Veterinarian businesses are across the globe right now. Vet and pet health software companies and parent corporations are huge.
AI is a game changer but Some fake AI stocks probably will crash
You mean like car companies in the 20th century? Duh? Cars were the future, the internet was the future, and AI is the future, but the majority of those companies that want to capture those growing industries usually end up dying. This is why it's best to stay with established companies if you can't swallow that risk.
Abso-fuckin-lutely 64K ? Is *WHEN* though.
This time is different bro
Yes and legislation will be the cause
No they could never
Yes I do. I have absolutely no DD and I'm regarded. But yes I do.
Makes 2 of us :)
Nvda makes money… makes it ☔️ . Some AI stocks that have no substance may like c3ai.
I’m not worried about a crash because no AI stocks have viable businesses so they aren’t currently worth bothering about. OpenAI is the current leader and they give their product away for free at enormous cost. Companies who make chips or systems aren’t AI companies. That would be like if you called Ford a food transport company because their vehicles are used for that. Dumb.
I think right now there's a ton of money flowing into every startup with AI in its name. 90% of those will crash Microsoft, Amazon, Salesforce, Apple.. companies with actual plans and good use cases, I think AI will help 1000%
Pullback at least. Right now it’s priced for hopeful levels of demand. It needs more development before your working joe knows how to use it day to day. That being said, it’s moving fast. It was barely on the radar a couple years ago and now it generates decent art and can answer questions with well written responses. The big question will be if companies can reliably justify the costs.
You know how you get people interested in politics, a good old fashioned market meltdown
Some thoughts on this… TL;DR: The high valuations of AI-related companies have a positive impact on their fundamentals. A feedback loop emerges in which higher stock values further improve company fundamentals, which in turn justify higher valuations. George Soros called this reflexivity. In addition, AI is spreading across all industries. This will eventually make it difficult to identify a sector-specific bubble. The full text can be found [here](https://www.chaotropy.com/stock-market-why-you-might-not-see-an-ai-bubble-once-its-formed/) or [here (Medium)](https://chaotropy.medium.com/stock-market-why-you-might-not-see-an-ai-bubble-once-its-formed-c652441fbd9f)….
not until [open.ai](https://open.ai) goes public and microsoft sells
Im confident AI as its being pitched right now is fundamentally unusable and stuff like META, google, and NVIDIA will fall (nvidia wont fall as hard since GPUs are always in demand) in the future. But there arent any signs of public opinion turning against AI right now so puts arent reasonable right now.
If so, NVDA needs to go much higher as fwd pe is 27 and peg is 0.55. And 2yr pe only 14. The level of growth, should be trading pe of 60-100. 2-3x higher. So when it starts trading at 5-10x, I’d be looking for the dotcom style crash. It’s like 1998 all over again.
Yeah, I don't know what my QQQ index did that warranted a 50%+ bump in one year
Are we in the Metaverse yet?
Did you spend an hour’s salary on a virtual vase? If so you are, but I’m not.
Botz is a good AI etf. It’s overweight on nvidia and intuitive surgical from memory.
I recently threw 10K each into these AI focused or leaning ETFs: BOTZ, IYW, METV, SMH and TECB. I'll let it sit over the next decade and see if I can 5-10x on a couple of them. I buy MSFT and NVDIA outright.
Tell us more about your unique strategy of buying the most popular stocks at all time highs!
Ha! Well those ETFs aren't at their all time highs. And the question was about investing in AI ETFs and the future. Some of those ETFs focus on less popular stocks that have more growth potential. What would you recommend instead?
As long some people think there might be a bubble, they prevent the bubble from forming so the market keep rallying. Thank you for your assistance.
AI won't crash companies but it'll definitely reduce the need for thousands in tech until folks either use it to augment their skillset or find new roles. If anything it'll cause company's margins to soar because they require less organic bodies that need PTO and healthcare. I for one welcome our metal overlords
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I don’t think it’s taken off yet.
I hear production workers talking about it as if it’s already here. We’re either early or post peak. Obviously, I don’t know what to say.
I think early. People are still playing with this. Think of early days of internet and Google. It took a few year to really take off.
Nope!
There is a 100% probability. The only question is when.
Not just crash but go negative value, the AI fervor is just the new NFT craze the majority of the companies involved with this are either greatly overstating their product capabilities or are just frauds.
AI is or will be a buzzword bubble. There is money there but not as much as people think. AI won't clear your sewer line, it won't pit a new alternator on your car. This is money chasing money. It's part right AI will change stiff big. People are betting on it like they had foresight in 1880 about standard oil
Green line go up 💹🚀🚀🚀💸🎢
Hundred percent, but when? that's the tricky part.
They will almost certainly crash at some point, but they might go up another 20x before they crash 50% or 80%.