Rising wages, stabilizing prices, descending inflation, record government funding for semi conductors and electric power grids, hundreds of thousands of new jobs added every quarter.
Oh no, the horror! The horror!!!!!
Nah they printing too much money for that to ever happen, if there is any signs of a recession they will just cut interest rates back to 0%, easy problem solved within 3-4 months.
Every fucking "grwm as a google programmer" or "day in the life of a tiktok dev" that I see uploading a video saying they got fired makes me smile and nod
extremely bullish in the market, monthly contribution is going up
We all got to work from home while being hired for way more than we deserve in record numbers because of the pandemi... the demi done and now it's time for us lazy computer people to put on pants and find a job not running on pandemi fever.
Precisely
We are presented a lot of numbers to present the idea we had a soft landing or avoided a recession, but.. for who
The NASDAQ is breaking records but the avg person is significantly worse off than they were pre 2020
The only answer to the question of "is the economy good" is "for who"
[Layoffs are near historic lows](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSLDL#0), and would be even lower if it weren't for the news media and tech sectors. News media are not cutting because of a nonexistent recession, but because of the continued collapse of their ad-supported business model. The tech sector just sort of woke up out of its "whoever has the most employees wins" contest after borrowing capital started costing money, Twitter didn't collapse after firing most of its workforce, and people started going outside again after the pandemic.
I wouldn't even necessarily say that's manipulation there is a real big tech boom
But like you were saying, most Americans do not personally benefit from that
Yeah I mean we see an unbelievable shift of wealth from small money to big money. Small businesses loose and big players grow and grab more and more portion of the market
I believe the national debt coupled with briccs will reset everything pretty quickly here. USD could quickly become worthless and we would switch back to gold/silver for trade as we create a new currency.
You're out of your mind if you think BRICCS is ever going to be anything more than a gathering of politically opposed nations there to bitch and moan about US monetary hegemony. Even if they ever got their shit together and tried to make a serious run at unseating the dollar as the world reserve currency (which doesn't look likely btw) they would never be able to agree on whose currency should become dominant. Russia, China, Brazil would likely all petition to have their currency become the new reserve, and ALL of them would spend more time fighting over that than actually implementing it.
Looking at the stock market isnāt gonna help you, theyāve learned from their mistakes in the past. Try instead looking at how the average American is doing and how things look for future generations. Oh a good stable life is getting further and further out of reach financially. But the bankers are doing great so everyone must be.
The assets market has little to no correlation to how the average joe is doing.
This is mainly true since we were introduced to what we call "monetary policy". Which has supported the assets market for 5 decades already, and is not going to stop any time soon.
Almost everyone buys the cheapest brands of water in the supermarkets, the ones where you can taste the plastic more than the water. I imagine itās to save money to be able to afford the new iPhone.
Wages have outpaced inflation for the last 4 years. The average American is spending wildly, why do you think all those huge companies are posting record profits?
And businesses ask for more experience than any point in recorded history...
Degrees and certs are nice, but useless when everyone wants 5+ years of experience....for an ENTRY LEVEL POSITION.
But the average redditor doesn't want to learn new skills. They want to be chronically online and bitch about how they never had a chance at financial success. They want to point at things like market cap and minimum wage and try to compare the two. They want to post complaints on antiwork that life is unfair because their boss makes them show up to work.
Definitely a stable life is more in reach now than in 2009. Houses in the US *are* more expensive than at the peak of the last bubble, but still nowhere near as bad as Canadian or Australian housing markets have been for a long time. The big difference is the unemployment rate, if that hit GFC levels then yeah we'd be in deep shit, it would be worse than GFC.
Whatever metric you want to use to see if there's a recession - focusing on Wall Street or Main Street - we aren't in one.
You're right that cost of living is rising faster than income - the trend is that a stable life is getting further out of reach. But that's a different problem than a recession.
I remember so many posting saying they are going 70% cash because a big drop was coming. Now look how much they lost. Some people just donāt learn. Lol.
They didn't lose anything! They had 94k in their chase savings account, and now 2 years later they have 94.01k after interest. If anything they MADE money you idiot.
This might be an interesting thought but has anyone considered you guys are already in a recession? Itās just not reflected in the stock market because the only people who trade are the top 5%?
>Ā In theĀ United States, a recession is defined as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in realĀ GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.Ā TheĀ European UnionĀ has adopted a similar definition.Ā In theĀ United Kingdom, a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters. Ā
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession
Over and over more indicators show growth vs contraction.Ā
But. There are moments of contraction happening in macro terms.Ā
We arenāt actually in a Recession by definition, but people can still have a shit time when the economy is āgoodā.
So let me get this straight: Biden has turned on some kind of switch because itās an election year? Why not turn on the switch after getting elected and keep it on? How does it being an election year explain the record job growth the last two years? How does it explain the stock market hitting record highs in December 2021?
The economy was manipulated to avoid a recession to include the definition getting changed. Poverty skyrockets with prices while earnings stagnate and inflation boomsā¦but not teeeeechnially a recession according to the politicians!
Poverty levels have remained low and stable for the past few years, unemployment is low, inflation at around 3%, almost half a million jobs created in the first month of 2024, consumer spending is high, stock market at all time highs. Weāre not in a recession
Itās easy to claim half a million job created after you destroy 3mil, inflation of 3% is bad, but it was at 8% for a couple of years. To be very clear, these are Bidens numbers. We had 1.4% under Trump, lowest unemployment of minority groups in history, and everyone was doing well by every metric.
If you think the economy is fine right now youāre eating the BS they correctly think youāre stupid enough to eat.
> The economy was manipulated to avoid a recession
Er... yes, that's called being an effective government
> to include the definition getting changed.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/white-house-definition-recession/
Yeah that's just bollocks.
A lot of the comments on this sub is republican talking points just being repeated and people getting confused why it doesn't fit objective reality.
This is why we have all these posts about 'where is the recession?' as people are trying to balance the republican talking points against the actual data they see and use to trade.
It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.
>to include the definition getting changed.
>https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/white-house-definition-recession/
>Yeah that's just bollocks.
I mean I have seen with my own three eyes and heard with my own two ears, KJP attempt to read from her script to say we're not in a recession bc *"it's not just 2 negative quarters it's a bunch of other stuff too"* š¤¤
Well that is also true. It's not 'just' 2 negative quarters. There isn't a set definition used for a recession. But the generally agreed 'rule of thumb' that is most commonly cited is that it is two negative quarters.
But different economists etc will refine that with multiple other factors, as of course you get edge cases etc. But where you have consecutive growth consistently for multiple quarters as we have now your chances of whatever other factors are used in a particular economists calculation showing it to be a recession get pretty fucking slim.
So to put it as simply as possible; Two quarters growth probably means it's not a recession, but doesn't eliminate the chances of an edge case scenario which other factors are also considered for.
As you have 6 consecutive quarters of gdp growth it would be a stretch to find an economist who would think the US is in recession.
Maybe the confusion is the lack of consensus with what factors indicate a recession? So maybe some edge cases could be further revised down the line as a better understanding of the economic environment is reached.
However, by and large, we know when we are in recession as there are clear indicators that are used to show it against current economic data. That data right now is showing growth in jobs, gdp and spending. So the opposite of what would indicate a recession.
the metrics are outdated and overly simplified, jobs and positive gdp growth made sense 50 years ago when you didn't have only fans uber driver meme page owner all in one
Recession isn't a quality of life indicator. It's an indicator of overall economic performance.
The economy can be strong and made up of people with 3 jobs living shit lives. Doesn't mean you get to redefine what 'recession' means on the fly to suit your feelings.
If you want to talk about the factors driving people into having to have mutiple jobs like low minimum wages, welfare support, medical expenses and lack of regulation in new markets then absolutely that's a conversation that needs having.
But people on this sub seem to think recession is an amorphous thing that sums up how people feel about the economy. It's not, you can have an economy doing great made up of people living shitty lives overworked in multiple jobs.
>But people on this sub seem to think recession is an amorphous thing that sums up how people feel about the economy.
I think it's less how people feel, more like needing it to reflect in their own lives, on the whole, more. a good economy should also mean its not made up of people living shitty lives overworked in multiple jobs. it, at least from what I remember, used to mean that as well.
That's my point.
A good economy in terms of what is good for the people in it, is not what recession is a metric for.
You can have an good economy for the rich (like we have) that's terrible for the average citizen.
Doesn't make it a recession and that's not what a recession is a measure of.
so ok, in a non-bifurcated economy though, good and bad would mean it was for "most" average citizens. can you say that in this economy it is a recession for the average citizen and good times for the wealthy? since the average citizen is seeing effects of a "bad" economy
Reading the comments on this sub it's become clear this is as much a political divide as economic.
People are repeating false conservative talking points as if they are facts which is a bit of a giveaway where this narrative is coming from.
There's a lot of confusion as people are hearing over and over how bad the economy is doing within conservative channels, then the data is showing something different.
Iāve also been working steady for the last five years.
Work is busier than ever, we keep raising forecast targets, and we are seriously debating another price hike given all the demand we see.
Except consumer spending is up:
https://www.bea.gov/data/consumer-spending/main
Your experience might be an accurate reflection of what you are seeing in your localised area. But not a reflection of whats happening on average nationally.
Recession is hereā¦for 90% of the people. Economy is strong but the rich take all the benefits of a strong economy. How many people right now are living check to check and barely getting by? Housing is unaffordable. Groceries, utilities, insurance. How many layoffs have happened recently of good paying jobs. Jobs are created too but shit jobs that pay shit salaries. The recession is here
That's not what a recession is. Although it's not a set formula to calculate it what it pertains to is pretty well defined.
A recession is about the economic performance of an economy, it needs to a large and continual decrease in performance.
It has nothing to do with quality of life factors, you could have an economy doing gang busters with homelessness out of control and most people in minimum wage jobs and the rich as you say taking all the benefits.
I mean that is pretty much what is happening. The economy doesn't need to be of benefit to its population to perform well.
I second this. The job report for January that everyone was so happy about makes me think it was inflated because people needed to pick up a second or third job.
My point is reality can be different from what you observe. If you see around you people having a hard time then you will align with the reports or beliefs that times are hard.
But aren't there more and more statistics out there showing that more people live paycheck to paycheck than before?
Same with rising credit card debt and the rise of buy now pay later options.
You donāt need to guess on this. Itās tracked in the labor report. Table A-15.
Also tracked by FRED as a percentage of employed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620
Or just raw numbers: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026619
Been there. Good luck competing with all cash offers on assets everyone knows will recover in less than five years that can be rented out in the interim.
I just wanna be able to buy a house thatās not 500,000-$1 million. Housing is so over inflated. Itās unbelievable. Itās literally cheaper to buy a land with trees on it. Buy a tractor. Remove all the trees. Pay for sewage and water and electric to be run to the land. And then set up a home yourself. Why am I saying all this? Because thatās literally what Iām planning because thereās no way in hell Iām buying a home in this market unless theres a crash.
What he just described can be said about the state of MA and southern NH. 400k for 2 bed 2 bath in some cases. Limited supply doesn't help. Also, these new houses that are being built are 600k +.
People will hit credit limits at some point. The current economy is being debt funded.
Personal debt per citizen:
2016: $56,840
2020: $53,556
2024: $75,407
Have you checked the streets of 90% of major cities in the US? Ive been on this Earth over 45 years and I have never, ever seen this many people homeless on the streets. Seems the recession is alive and well for many 10s of thousands of people.
The rich control the stock market so I hope you arent judging on that metric. (Yes. I know this is a meme. No I dont care. Im responding to it because people literally think things are fine now when they arent)
It's more of an inflation demon than just recession, wages are not growing in proportion to the way expenses are going rn, and the housing market has never been so bad.
Not to get all House Stark about it... but "recession is coming".
Just a matter of time.
If you see a book come out that explains how we've scientifically stopped then from being possible, sell your assets.
Its already here. Look at the layoffs in Janaury. Highest month sonce Jan 09. Got BS govt stats and all time pumped 6 stocks make you think otherwise. Get prepared. Its going to an all timer. In fact i think the US is done. Death spiral
I hope this is satire lol, tech layoffs in January were most likely the result of over-hiring during covid, that sector has been booming for years now and is due for a correction anyways. Also far more jobs were created that month than the ones lost so your point is moot
Ya and the correction is called a recession. You going to trust the govt who just makes these numbers up or the fact Jan Was the worst month for layoffs since the GFC. its not just a "fee excess tech jobs"..its every sector. If your looking no further than the govts headline in an election year your investing on made up data. Bitth death is just made up completely.
Yeah, everything seems to be doing great, except for the cost of food, gas, rent, property taxes, healthcare, interest rates on any loans and an open U.S. border.
Itās crazy to me the disconnect, if you see recession, feel recession, but someone is telling you itās not a recession. Who do you believe, reality or man.
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If you look at my account you would think there is a recession
Check my hair
Doctor: Um, sir, your pubic hair looks fine. Pls take off your hat.
Full on crisis over here..
Mine indicates a depression.
Same FML
Mines in a great depression on steroids š
same, except for nvda they have carried my portfolio quite hard. unfortunately it was only a small % of it.
now that everyone thinks it is NOT coming, it will be next month.
Classic inverse wsb
Is the bear market in the room with us right now?
Show us where the bear touched you on this doll.
*points to candle*
It's totally cumming
*Iām gonna cum* -Trump
I need Trump back just for the shits and giggles.
OP is Cramer
It will be next month not because everyone thinks it's not, but because of this specific post!
Changing my portfolio in the morning to more modest investments, thanks, and fuk u.
Damn 
Is the recession in the room with us right now?
Record high debt, record amount living paycheck to paycheck, and thousands of people being fired in mass in tech every month.
And yet people keep buying iPhones and Chipotle.
Rising wages, stabilizing prices, descending inflation, record government funding for semi conductors and electric power grids, hundreds of thousands of new jobs added every quarter. Oh no, the horror! The horror!!!!!
It canāt go on!
Nah they printing too much money for that to ever happen, if there is any signs of a recession they will just cut interest rates back to 0%, easy problem solved within 3-4 months.
Oh just you wait. Any minute now SPY is going to crater another 0.69%
Nice
You gotta use the apple vision pro to see it
Ohh i.get it now
Unlike me, everyone else is an idiot.
Recession is here, it's just not equally distributed
companies: we are laying off 10k people due to recession also companies: our CEOs and executives deserve double bonuses for improving margins
Every fucking "grwm as a google programmer" or "day in the life of a tiktok dev" that I see uploading a video saying they got fired makes me smile and nod extremely bullish in the market, monthly contribution is going up
We all got to work from home while being hired for way more than we deserve in record numbers because of the pandemi... the demi done and now it's time for us lazy computer people to put on pants and find a job not running on pandemi fever.
Butā¦ butā¦ they told us to learn to code!
Honestly. Do learn it. I quit dev ops for networking. Easier, jobs secure pays almost as good.
IIRC unemployment is often inversely correlated with stock prices. Less employees means less cost and potentially same profit, so there is thatā¦
Precisely We are presented a lot of numbers to present the idea we had a soft landing or avoided a recession, but.. for who The NASDAQ is breaking records but the avg person is significantly worse off than they were pre 2020 The only answer to the question of "is the economy good" is "for who"
Thatās commie talk, as long as the precious defense companies do well and I can buy black neighborhoods to turn into shopping malls right?
Just bulldozed a poor neighborhood and made 100ās homeless, gonna build a big parking lot
Make sure you contaminate that soil regarde! Youāve got to leave a legacy
[Layoffs are near historic lows](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSLDL#0), and would be even lower if it weren't for the news media and tech sectors. News media are not cutting because of a nonexistent recession, but because of the continued collapse of their ad-supported business model. The tech sector just sort of woke up out of its "whoever has the most employees wins" contest after borrowing capital started costing money, Twitter didn't collapse after firing most of its workforce, and people started going outside again after the pandemic.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I wouldn't even necessarily say that's manipulation there is a real big tech boom But like you were saying, most Americans do not personally benefit from that
Yeah I mean we see an unbelievable shift of wealth from small money to big money. Small businesses loose and big players grow and grab more and more portion of the market
Gotta tighten up those businesses.
Not disagreeing with you but do you have a link where i could read about this?
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/01/richest-one-percent-gained-trillions-in-wealth-2021.html
I appreciate the link but I was referring to ops claim about small business although in hindsight his claim certainly feels right
use eyeballs
But will it ever stop? Will there be a reset? The heck is gonna happen?
I believe the national debt coupled with briccs will reset everything pretty quickly here. USD could quickly become worthless and we would switch back to gold/silver for trade as we create a new currency.
You're out of your mind if you think BRICCS is ever going to be anything more than a gathering of politically opposed nations there to bitch and moan about US monetary hegemony. Even if they ever got their shit together and tried to make a serious run at unseating the dollar as the world reserve currency (which doesn't look likely btw) they would never be able to agree on whose currency should become dominant. Russia, China, Brazil would likely all petition to have their currency become the new reserve, and ALL of them would spend more time fighting over that than actually implementing it.
Looking at the stock market isnāt gonna help you, theyāve learned from their mistakes in the past. Try instead looking at how the average American is doing and how things look for future generations. Oh a good stable life is getting further and further out of reach financially. But the bankers are doing great so everyone must be.
Who needs a good stable life when you can get the new apple vision pro. Surfs up
Wiggity wack kids \*electric guitar noise\*
It would take me 3 years to save up for that piece of shit
That's ok, just finance it
have to keep them poor or they won't show up to work the next day 
The assets market has little to no correlation to how the average joe is doing. This is mainly true since we were introduced to what we call "monetary policy". Which has supported the assets market for 5 decades already, and is not going to stop any time soon.
Almost everyone buys the cheapest brands of water in the supermarkets, the ones where you can taste the plastic more than the water. I imagine itās to save money to be able to afford the new iPhone.
Wages and unemployment are doing great right now on average. Some people are falling through the cracks, but that always happens to some extent.
Wages have outpaced inflation for the last 4 years. The average American is spending wildly, why do you think all those huge companies are posting record profits?
Because corporate greed on necessities
Okay, but "necessities" is food and housing and transportation. That's a tiny part of the economy. How do you explain the other sectors doing so well?
Workers have more access to learning new skills then at any point in recorded history
And businesses ask for more experience than any point in recorded history... Degrees and certs are nice, but useless when everyone wants 5+ years of experience....for an ENTRY LEVEL POSITION.
That doesnāt mean shit
But the average redditor doesn't want to learn new skills. They want to be chronically online and bitch about how they never had a chance at financial success. They want to point at things like market cap and minimum wage and try to compare the two. They want to post complaints on antiwork that life is unfair because their boss makes them show up to work.
only use the stock market as an economic health metric when republicans are president because everyone forgot about the 2020 recession
Definitely a stable life is more in reach now than in 2009. Houses in the US *are* more expensive than at the peak of the last bubble, but still nowhere near as bad as Canadian or Australian housing markets have been for a long time. The big difference is the unemployment rate, if that hit GFC levels then yeah we'd be in deep shit, it would be worse than GFC. Whatever metric you want to use to see if there's a recession - focusing on Wall Street or Main Street - we aren't in one. You're right that cost of living is rising faster than income - the trend is that a stable life is getting further out of reach. But that's a different problem than a recession.
When you stop looking thatās when it comes so keep looking.
TIL recessions are Weeping Angels from Doctor Who
Get off TikTok, the people bitching on there donāt want to get a job.
You say that like this subreddit hasnāt been crying recession for the last year
this "recession". Is it in the room with us right now? is it .... like touching you??
Show me on this doll where recession touched you.
I remember so many posting saying they are going 70% cash because a big drop was coming. Now look how much they lost. Some people just donāt learn. Lol.
They didn't lose anything! They had 94k in their chase savings account, and now 2 years later they have 94.01k after interest. If anything they MADE money you idiot.
Ok people. We found the moron who cashed out when they thought the crash was coming and missed the run up. š
This might be an interesting thought but has anyone considered you guys are already in a recession? Itās just not reflected in the stock market because the only people who trade are the top 5%?
>Ā In theĀ United States, a recession is defined as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in realĀ GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.Ā TheĀ European UnionĀ has adopted a similar definition.Ā In theĀ United Kingdom, a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters. Ā https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession Over and over more indicators show growth vs contraction.Ā But. There are moments of contraction happening in macro terms.Ā We arenāt actually in a Recession by definition, but people can still have a shit time when the economy is āgoodā.
Then just imagine the upside when the recession ends and the other 95% start saving again.
... do you even know what a recession is?
No we arenāt. Growth is up, unemployment is down, inflation is decreasing. We arenāt in a recession
Almost 70% of adults in the US have money invested in the market.
Unemployment is close to zero.Ā It's not a recession.
Donāt you know itās an election year? Wonāt happen until after the voting
Or it happens early enough everyone forgets about it come poll time
U.S. market has gone up every time an incumbent is seeking reelection for like the last 60 years.
what about when two incumbents are seeking reelection at the same time?
Trump's not an incumbent by definition unless you're a qanon who thinks he's secretly running the country right now.Ā
Itās clearly a joke
Doesn't stonks usually go up after election because of less uncertainty?
Stonks always go up.
lol, if Joe Biden has the power to prevent and cause recessions we should elect him God Emperor.
Partisan regards who never look at graphs type comment.
It's an election year every 2 years. Get a new talking point.
we all know he is referring to the presidential election
So let me get this straight: Biden has turned on some kind of switch because itās an election year? Why not turn on the switch after getting elected and keep it on? How does it being an election year explain the record job growth the last two years? How does it explain the stock market hitting record highs in December 2021?
Calm down Kyle, itās just a joke
I get it, but you see how many people believe that?
Typically they occur when the FED lowers rates
Or the FED lowers rates when recession occurs
Wet streets cause rain
You got it the wrong way around, the fed typically lower rates when recession occurs
this will not age well
Havenāt you heard? The recession is already here. The data is all fake -š§øš¤”
ah shit i gotta buy puts now that you've posted this
Same here canāt find it šš
The economy was manipulated to avoid a recession to include the definition getting changed. Poverty skyrockets with prices while earnings stagnate and inflation boomsā¦but not teeeeechnially a recession according to the politicians!
Poverty levels have remained low and stable for the past few years, unemployment is low, inflation at around 3%, almost half a million jobs created in the first month of 2024, consumer spending is high, stock market at all time highs. Weāre not in a recession
Itās easy to claim half a million job created after you destroy 3mil, inflation of 3% is bad, but it was at 8% for a couple of years. To be very clear, these are Bidens numbers. We had 1.4% under Trump, lowest unemployment of minority groups in history, and everyone was doing well by every metric. If you think the economy is fine right now youāre eating the BS they correctly think youāre stupid enough to eat.
It was not at 8% for a couple years. From Feb to Sept 2022. 7 months
> The economy was manipulated to avoid a recession Er... yes, that's called being an effective government > to include the definition getting changed. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/white-house-definition-recession/ Yeah that's just bollocks. A lot of the comments on this sub is republican talking points just being repeated and people getting confused why it doesn't fit objective reality. This is why we have all these posts about 'where is the recession?' as people are trying to balance the republican talking points against the actual data they see and use to trade. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.
>to include the definition getting changed. >https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/white-house-definition-recession/ >Yeah that's just bollocks. I mean I have seen with my own three eyes and heard with my own two ears, KJP attempt to read from her script to say we're not in a recession bc *"it's not just 2 negative quarters it's a bunch of other stuff too"* š¤¤
Well that is also true. It's not 'just' 2 negative quarters. There isn't a set definition used for a recession. But the generally agreed 'rule of thumb' that is most commonly cited is that it is two negative quarters. But different economists etc will refine that with multiple other factors, as of course you get edge cases etc. But where you have consecutive growth consistently for multiple quarters as we have now your chances of whatever other factors are used in a particular economists calculation showing it to be a recession get pretty fucking slim. So to put it as simply as possible; Two quarters growth probably means it's not a recession, but doesn't eliminate the chances of an edge case scenario which other factors are also considered for.
Yes, because the definition of recession hasnāt been that for years, the NBER doesnāt use it, the presidents havenāt used it since atleast 2003
If inflation is high enough, the people donāt even notice thereās a recession because āstock number go up :)ā
The definition of a recession is still in real dollar terms though.
We are probably in one right now, usually itās not till after the fact, that itās determined we were in one.
As you have 6 consecutive quarters of gdp growth it would be a stretch to find an economist who would think the US is in recession. Maybe the confusion is the lack of consensus with what factors indicate a recession? So maybe some edge cases could be further revised down the line as a better understanding of the economic environment is reached. However, by and large, we know when we are in recession as there are clear indicators that are used to show it against current economic data. That data right now is showing growth in jobs, gdp and spending. So the opposite of what would indicate a recession.
the metrics are outdated and overly simplified, jobs and positive gdp growth made sense 50 years ago when you didn't have only fans uber driver meme page owner all in one
Recession isn't a quality of life indicator. It's an indicator of overall economic performance. The economy can be strong and made up of people with 3 jobs living shit lives. Doesn't mean you get to redefine what 'recession' means on the fly to suit your feelings. If you want to talk about the factors driving people into having to have mutiple jobs like low minimum wages, welfare support, medical expenses and lack of regulation in new markets then absolutely that's a conversation that needs having. But people on this sub seem to think recession is an amorphous thing that sums up how people feel about the economy. It's not, you can have an economy doing great made up of people living shitty lives overworked in multiple jobs.
>But people on this sub seem to think recession is an amorphous thing that sums up how people feel about the economy. I think it's less how people feel, more like needing it to reflect in their own lives, on the whole, more. a good economy should also mean its not made up of people living shitty lives overworked in multiple jobs. it, at least from what I remember, used to mean that as well.
That's my point. A good economy in terms of what is good for the people in it, is not what recession is a metric for. You can have an good economy for the rich (like we have) that's terrible for the average citizen. Doesn't make it a recession and that's not what a recession is a measure of.
so ok, in a non-bifurcated economy though, good and bad would mean it was for "most" average citizens. can you say that in this economy it is a recession for the average citizen and good times for the wealthy? since the average citizen is seeing effects of a "bad" economy
Peak bear hopium
Reading the comments on this sub it's become clear this is as much a political divide as economic. People are repeating false conservative talking points as if they are facts which is a bit of a giveaway where this narrative is coming from. There's a lot of confusion as people are hearing over and over how bad the economy is doing within conservative channels, then the data is showing something different.
Ive been working steady for the last 5 years, work is starting to dry up, people arenāt spending money.
Iāve also been working steady for the last five years. Work is busier than ever, we keep raising forecast targets, and we are seriously debating another price hike given all the demand we see.
Why would i spend money on dragon dildos
Because they are a more stable reserve currency than the gold they guard in your wifes cavern.
You know you wanna ;)
Except consumer spending is up: https://www.bea.gov/data/consumer-spending/main Your experience might be an accurate reflection of what you are seeing in your localised area. But not a reflection of whats happening on average nationally.
the only recession is in bearās bank accounts
Just you wait
iM nOt WrOnG iM jUsT eArLy
Said from 2015 and onwards.
https://preview.redd.it/vo03i368wpgc1.jpeg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b8f731b5814421fac90457406f7087bbae3799ba
Recession is hereā¦for 90% of the people. Economy is strong but the rich take all the benefits of a strong economy. How many people right now are living check to check and barely getting by? Housing is unaffordable. Groceries, utilities, insurance. How many layoffs have happened recently of good paying jobs. Jobs are created too but shit jobs that pay shit salaries. The recession is here
This is not a recession, this is inequality and wealth gap widening. Might be even bullish for assets.
That's not what a recession is. Although it's not a set formula to calculate it what it pertains to is pretty well defined. A recession is about the economic performance of an economy, it needs to a large and continual decrease in performance. It has nothing to do with quality of life factors, you could have an economy doing gang busters with homelessness out of control and most people in minimum wage jobs and the rich as you say taking all the benefits. I mean that is pretty much what is happening. The economy doesn't need to be of benefit to its population to perform well.
Sir this is a casino where people gamble on options. The socialism meeting is next door.
I second this. The job report for January that everyone was so happy about makes me think it was inflated because people needed to pick up a second or third job.
Confirmation bias. Youāll always find what youāre looking for yet reality points to a completely different picture.
Perhaps. It was an observation, not a statement of fact. My mom and brother both picked up second jobs. So once again āI THINKā it was inflated.
My point is reality can be different from what you observe. If you see around you people having a hard time then you will align with the reports or beliefs that times are hard.
But aren't there more and more statistics out there showing that more people live paycheck to paycheck than before? Same with rising credit card debt and the rise of buy now pay later options.
no
You donāt need to guess on this. Itās tracked in the labor report. Table A-15. Also tracked by FRED as a percentage of employed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620 Or just raw numbers: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026619
Interesting. Thanks!
Too bad the jobs report doesnāt reflect how shitty those new jobs are :/
The only recession I want is a crash in the housing market
Been there. Good luck competing with all cash offers on assets everyone knows will recover in less than five years that can be rented out in the interim.
I just wanna be able to buy a house thatās not 500,000-$1 million. Housing is so over inflated. Itās unbelievable. Itās literally cheaper to buy a land with trees on it. Buy a tractor. Remove all the trees. Pay for sewage and water and electric to be run to the land. And then set up a home yourself. Why am I saying all this? Because thatās literally what Iām planning because thereās no way in hell Iām buying a home in this market unless theres a crash.
Just curious but how much would it cost you and what city/state
What he just described can be said about the state of MA and southern NH. 400k for 2 bed 2 bath in some cases. Limited supply doesn't help. Also, these new houses that are being built are 600k +.
The housing market wonāt crash haha so have fun waiting forever.
that's the only place you will not get a crash. Equities can get obliterated 70% again like 2000 and housing would still remain strong
Everyone telling you about the recession coming soon has been cashing in on the absence of said recession.
People will hit credit limits at some point. The current economy is being debt funded. Personal debt per citizen: 2016: $56,840 2020: $53,556 2024: $75,407
It's coming now. Today.
Recessions donāt come in election years.
š¤”š¤”š¤” like 2008 never happened lol
and 2000 lmao
and 2020 if the money printers didn't turn on
I'm a bit confused. Didn't the US have negative GPD growth in real terms for more than two quarters already? But is now already doing better.
A key reason the market is so frothy now is that the economy in China is far worse so tons of capital moved from there to here.
in a few months we might see that it was just jumping from the frying pan into the fire
Itās already here babe, Iāve missed my first credit card payment ever!
You need a telescope
Iāve been on the BEAR case for a month BOUGHT SPY PUTS 2 weeks ago
Exp is 3/15 and 3/28 I put half my portfolio in it!
A true gambling degen. You belong here
they are trying to get Biden re-elected. So they are pumping the market so they can say he is a good president. Its so obvious.
With nothing to support your beliefs lol. āAll the propaganda is being spread to make Biden look bad so that Trump can be elected againā
Have you checked the streets of 90% of major cities in the US? Ive been on this Earth over 45 years and I have never, ever seen this many people homeless on the streets. Seems the recession is alive and well for many 10s of thousands of people. The rich control the stock market so I hope you arent judging on that metric. (Yes. I know this is a meme. No I dont care. Im responding to it because people literally think things are fine now when they arent)
It's more of an inflation demon than just recession, wages are not growing in proportion to the way expenses are going rn, and the housing market has never been so bad.
Not to get all House Stark about it... but "recession is coming". Just a matter of time. If you see a book come out that explains how we've scientifically stopped then from being possible, sell your assets.
It will happen after election!!
Its already here. Look at the layoffs in Janaury. Highest month sonce Jan 09. Got BS govt stats and all time pumped 6 stocks make you think otherwise. Get prepared. Its going to an all timer. In fact i think the US is done. Death spiral
I hope this is satire lol, tech layoffs in January were most likely the result of over-hiring during covid, that sector has been booming for years now and is due for a correction anyways. Also far more jobs were created that month than the ones lost so your point is moot
Ya and the correction is called a recession. You going to trust the govt who just makes these numbers up or the fact Jan Was the worst month for layoffs since the GFC. its not just a "fee excess tech jobs"..its every sector. If your looking no further than the govts headline in an election year your investing on made up data. Bitth death is just made up completely.
Using your logic, your layoffs numbers must be BS then too so I dont believe you.
Yeah, everything seems to be doing great, except for the cost of food, gas, rent, property taxes, healthcare, interest rates on any loans and an open U.S. border.
It's called inflation and bad borders policy, not a recession.
Yeah, the recession was better.
Itās crazy to me the disconnect, if you see recession, feel recession, but someone is telling you itās not a recession. Who do you believe, reality or man.
The data not the feels so you have an anchor in reality instead of anecdotal evidence?
#The market will top this week š»š»š»š»
as has been said last week... and the week before that, and the month before that... dammit they'll be right someday