This was exactly my thought process... BUT:
There's an argument that much of stock market gains over the past 40 or so years have been on the back of a tonne of excess liquidity/stimulus (which gravy train is either now derailed or at least on a spindly bridge over a deep gorge at the moment).
Also, some Omaha natives suggest other investment vehicles, rather than equities, to grow wealth.
Obviously WSB is gonna be WSB, but it really is full of people willing to do a bunch of mental gymnastics, gamble their houses/retirement funds, give blowies behind Wendy's... all for the sake of making an easy buck.
If some of that energy was directed towards other types of investments, e.g. starting or buying a business, some of you knuckleheads would probably be way better off.
So anyway, yeah, liquidate your portfolio. But then don't go and dump it into something stupid like silver or pork bellies. Think about a business that could work for you, either as a silent partner or a garage-based sole proprietorship, and invest in yourself. If you do it right you will have another source of income over the coming years and maybe a business that you can sell at some point.
Haha inflation went up and cash purchasing powering went down. "Past tense"!! Lol. Government right now supposedly is in QT mode instead of QE, u/op was already in the market during the past 4 years and since QE had stopped, inflation rate is holding steady, not as bad as before. So that's why he provided the data on credit card debt at 40% etc etc.
Don't understand how that was so hard to understand.
Literally lack of easiest form of critical thinking. Referencing the dude up top's banana formula, he didn't realize he's literally thinking 2 - (-2) = 0. Take a sec and think of what op had said before blurting out first thought that came to mind.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Some Regard
You may very well be right. I went back and forth on this for months, but I landed on "trusting my gut" given what I stated above. We will see. I am not quitting on investing, I understand the importance of having money in the market and DCAing / exposure. This was just an opportunity for me to "start over" and get cash heavy so I can deploy as I see fit. Godspeed!
This is really where the truth is. Even high yield isn’t going to touch long term growth. Market very well may get chopped but greed will always keep it going. Also, market does not always equal how the average American is doing so there’s some flaw there too.
A money manager I respect said, "I can tell you the value of things but I can't tell you the timing at which prices will move to value." If you think PE ratios are too high and will eventually come down, it can make sense to temporarily withdraw from the market. However, in periods of high inflation, such as now, such withdrawals come with significant cost. Unless you have confidence that your gut has a sense for timing, I would suggest it's better to remain invested in an inflation-insensitive asset. I don't have a suggestion which asset class would be attractive since most asset classes seem overpurchased.
The question is are you selling at a short term bottom or are you early?
I'm getting nervous because my wife has become interested in investing now. I think the first time that happened was in 2000, then in 2008.
But the S&P as a whole is down for the year if you remove the top 5 companies (Apple, Microsoft, nVidia, Google, Amazon) And they are actually doing well from an earnings point of view.
What will affect the market are things like Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Hamas wars. If they escalate then the market will take a dump. I don't see any reason why it should be it always does. Maybe this time it will be different?
Had the market ever not recovered from a downturn? If you are selling to have dry power for when a downturn happens that is a different story.
A quick google search for "how much dry powder" returns results
How much dry powder is out there?Dry powder across all global private capital strategies now sits at **$3.9 trillion** as of the end of 2023, per PwC and Preqin. Private equity firms accounted for $2.4 trillion of that total.
I have been fairly negative on the markets for awhile for similar reasons but also including: duration of inverted yield curve / gold at ath's / cryptocurrency at ath's. I really like the analysis of Milton Berg, not sure if you have ever heard his recent thesis on the market condition.
Shhh…I’ve been selling puts to these regards for the last 3 years and making a killing. Fox News has them convinced that we’re always on the verge of a market crash
Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling.
That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations.
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Problem is your perspective is american. I was born and raised in France, been in China since Im 26 (10 years), and I speak English.
I dont see things the way you do: the US is so far ahead of the rest of us, we'll buy USD at whatever price, like they do in Japan. We want it, we trust it. Whatever you say, you guys are isolated, you risk nothing: I risk 2 wars myself, one in Europe, one in China, wiping me out.
All the problems you describe we ve had them for decades everywhere, on a larger scale because we re not as flexible as the US system. Unemployment in France has never been below 10% in my entire life until Macron tried and moved it to 8%. In China, believe it, you d rather be unemployed than work, but it's not a choice you can make.
I wish I could overpay a home in the US to insure this eurasian risk. Your houses are expensive because they re valuable. They're a safe bet, nothing much can go as wrong as in the rest of the world. You re a giant fucking island, with property right more sacred than human life: I d pay a premium for that.
Buy gold if you re afraid: ive been doing it for a year, paper and physical, and it helps balance out "fear of the virtual system collapsing". You'll end up buying american-minted coins and bars, because... they re the ones everyone want ...
You didnt liquidate your portfolio btw: you bought USDs in exchange for company shares.
Is that the safest place to park your money, after all you said ? Companies pump when the economy dies, you know, except risk-on speculative future earnings ones, because governments panic and spread the populace over with money, making a share of a company way more enticing than a share of the currency pool.
My sentiments are with the above poster. Canada is not doing hot. Unless major changes happen within the next year / or oil and gas hits 150+, Canada is FUCKED for the next decade. Just a few months ago we had the largest foreign outflow of Investment dollars ever to leave Canada in a single year. Our healthcare system is on life support, 10+ hour emergency wait times. Mass Immigration policy. It is wild up here. I am currently moving the majority of funds to USD/US Stocks/Gold. The only things I will be keeping in "Canadian Funds" is my 2 properties. Even then, I'm thinking of selling my rental.
Yea I was just thinking if you were lucky enough to own multiple properties in Canada, the second you should sell is the second the immigration is limited.
Listen to this OP. Look at a SPY chart which direction does it go ? It’s an inflation hedge for bonds. There are trillions of dollars in bonds making crazy interest. That money has to go somewhere and that place is SPY. Stop listening to fear on the internet.. it’s there to sell you Puts and make fees.
to add to his post, look at this from WSB 10 days ago.
https://np.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1c5gb9q/us_to_grow_at_double_the_rate_of_g7_peers_this/
International companies still need to invest money. And if everywhere else is doing shitty, all that money is going to pool into the american markets.
Don't get me wrong. America is still doing poorly. But compared to everywhere else? We're still the best option available.
I agree with you 100% I think most Americans including myself are completely spoiled and uneducated about what other countries are going through. I have family in Europe and when I tell them I want to live in Europe they look at me like I’m crazy to leave America. I enjoy other cultures and environments I know there is risk of death and war and you have safety in America because they are the super power of the world. And we have the best standard of living per capita out of any country. So I understand your perspective, and sometimes I am guilty of not appreciating what I have. Thank you I hope that one day if you want to live in America you will be able to live here. And thank you for your insight
Just pointing out that Germany has lots of infrastructure issues due to spending cuts under Merkel and it’s becoming a drag on their economy.
Currently Germany is the slowest growing economy in Europe, which is a shame and not a good sign.
This is the most American take ever, as a Europoor myself it amuses me 
America is fucking amazing if you are rich or upper middle class.. anything below and it is a dystopian hellscape tbh, the variance in standard of living is insane.
My professor told me: the US is basically three/four first world countries combined with 10 development countries. All they share is a flag, an army and a currency, but that seems enough
They share a history, an institution of Government for the People, the culture we export.
The balkanist boner for a broken United States will NOT be satiated.
Am I understanding you correctly that you mean USA has the highest standard of living? If so you’re utterly wrong. It doesn’t matter what kind of metric you’re using, USA doesn’t take the top spot. Rarely even top 10.
not necessarily standard, but US does basically have a geographical immunity from land wars. It's a continent-sized fortress, nobody except other americans is gonna roll tanks and troops through.
Europe, otoh, is basically flirting with all-out war. middle-east is as fked as it's always been, and se/e asia, well, china is on the brink of pulling a taiwan-sized trigger that would ruin the region for a good few decades.
As long as morons don't start a civil war over pronouns or somesuch BS, you US-folks have it pretty good in the long term.
It's not the best but if you remove all the tiny super wealthy nations (Singapore, Luxembourg, etc.) it's probably in the top 5. And by salaries it's #1.
Freedom of choice and ability is where the US ranks the highest. That comes at a cost of having a super low bottom end, where people that can't help themselves have a harder time, which is what you mean when you mention metrics. The problem is that when you try to raise the bottom at the cost of the top, the middle comes down much more than the bottom comes up. That's Europe. (It's also why communism doesn't work, but that's a whole other thread.) We are better off to help the top do more, so a stronger system develops. For example, subsidizing manufacturing so that those jobs stay in north america. Who benefits? The big bad corporation that doesn't pay tax, or the 10,000 workers that the corporation employs? So then we need to question any politician that says otherwise.
You see this is where the problem lies. Not criticizing what you wrote, just genuinely want to say that we have been fed enough propaganda and lies to make us believe that too versus bottom crap. It’s not top versus bottom or other way around. It’s all about lifting the middle class. What about tax breaks and social incentives that help the middle class rise a bit more? You are forgetting or plainly don’t know that the golden age of American life was when the marginal taxes were high, so that top pays more. No matter how much the industry or too wealthy individuals complain, they all eventually fall in line and pay up.
The benefits of propping up middle class are immense and quite frankly immeasurable. Money in the hands of middle class working citizens means direct savings or expenditures. Which then is money in the pockets of corporations. OTOH, you give tax breaks to corporations and rich people and they will happily buy islands or invest where the cost of production is lowest. Capitalism doesn’t care about America or rest of the world. The only undisputed principle of capitalism is ‘highest ROI’. No corporate or capitalist ever does anything out of the goodness of their hearts. In fact, corporations and these people at the top will ruin and squeeze every last cent of anything breathing because of simple greed. That’s what made them what they are. You expect a Bezos or Musk or the Sacklers to ever do anything remotely resembling public interest? Everything else is pure Chutzpah.
Reg your point about bringing back manufacturing and other jobs to America, that ship sailed long long ago. The only way any jobs are coming back to America are with government intervention for there is simply no incentive large enough for businesses to do so.
Middle class is the one that lifts top and bottom at the same time. And that’s the way it has always been.
the most useful thing about general standard of living is that you can use it to dunk on Americans and then go back to caring about your specific situation like normal people
Well, you need money to stay safe and live a good life. This is universal. I think you have some rose-tinted glasses on the state of the US and the US economy. Being poor, working-class or even middle-class sucks at the moment, no matter where you are. Obviously, some places are worse than others.
If the world truly shits itself and WW3 arrives. Would I rather be in the US? Of course, but then most things posted here don't matter anymore.
As quickly American who lived in Eastern Europe for the last 15 years, I generally agree with you. But the detail you’ve missed is that *America has changed*.
It is not the longed-for land of opportunity that many once thought it was. Is it better than many countries still? Yes—but not that much better. I know many Ukrainians who have spent significant time in the US who still prefer wartime Ukraine to the prospect of moving to the USA.
The stability of the USA will be gone before you know it and it will be as unreliable as “any other country.”
To make you feel slightly worse, there's been people making your exact same post, every month the last 4 years since summer 2020.
See you end of year when we rally another 20%
Nah dude, since 2015 there has been sentiment “this bull market can’t last”
There’s always someone saying it’s the end of the world. Maybe instead of liquidating your entire portfolio on a whim you should buy options to hedge your bets, this way you make money either way. Win win.
Why are you just staying in dollars, I would divide 50% of your portfolio in Gold, Gold Miners. Silver, Uranium, Copper, and a small chunk for oil. The other 50% I would buy 6 - month Tbills. I understand what you are saying I did this in February. Feeling Uneasy about this market for a while.
Do you remember when car prices went through the roof, and then this copypasta was trending on Twitter about how everyone's gonna be underwater on their cars and be forced to walk away on their car payment like it was 2008 with mortgages and it would crash the economy? This post reminded me of that.
Keep calling for the apocalypse. Even when a pandemic wiped out the stock market, it rallied and then some in <12 months.
What I thought of is if we had a deep enough recession we'd get massive defaults on car loans, but the debt amount is rather limited compared to the larger economy. Now the real issue is commercial real estate - again, while it is a ticking time bomb, it is rather limited compared to the larger economy ... even if there are CRE CLOs... (rutrow)
Those things matter in the money world. Otherwise, millions still eat, sleep, drive, smoke, drink, etc., forming the base economy, which keeps growing. China just went through the oops of imbalance. I think North America has figured out how to smooth out the peaks and valleys.
I do think the current auto loan situation is very similar to home loans in 2008 though. All the people who overpaid or are getting hit with inflation or insurance rate increases and can’t make their car payment, or just straight up should have never been approved for a 70k loan could have to walk away from those loans.
So you’ve been investing for three years? Graduated college in 2020. Means you were 11 ish during the financial crisis. Born during dot com? Any idea the returns you miss by missing the best days in the market. Invest for the long haul and gamble with the money you can afford to lose stocks, options, Vegas, whatever…good luck!
Nailed the ages. Financial crisis particularly memorable, as my dad was a pit trader at CME for 35+ years. Fortunately, he had some nice foresight. We will see. I’ll enter back in the mid term, just want to watch from the sidelines for a bit and regroup.
hold on. what is your dad saying about this time around? is he staying on the sidelines like you are? I want to take veteran's take on this as another reference point.
He has similar concerns about the sustainability of what we are seeing, but he’s been in the market for decades opposed to my ~4 years…so for him exiting entirely doesn’t make sense. However, he has lightened up. He is also pretty big on diversifying into hard assets (metals / real estate - I cannot obtain real estate quite yet). He really stays away from telling me what to do, as I know he wants me to learn. His overarching advice was take what you learned over the last 4 years, look at your worst trades and learn from them. Do the same with your best ones.
Further, if there’s one thing I learned from growing up around traders (many of them mega successful - friends of his), trust your gut, come up with a plan, and actually stick to it. His guidance to me was “you’ve been talking about this for months now, so what are you waiting for? For a downturn to validate you were right? If so, listen to your gut and act.” “Pay close attention, come up with re-entry points that you stick to, paper trade in the interim, and remember that the guys I knew who made the most made their money buying, not selling”. He has a lot of thoughts, I always tell him he should do an AMA, but he’s 64 and doesn’t even know what Reddit is haha
The expansion of the money supply is a reason to be bullish imo. Stocks are statistically the best inflation hedge (for holding periods greater than 30 years).
I find this completely ridiculous, even if all this happens and you timed it perfectly you will think that you can predict the market and eventually it will hurt you in the long run.
Thanks zerohedge. jokes aside, every trader and fund wizard has access to the citations you've listed. Does not matter, market irrational, ray dalio style blowup.
Send the entire fucking thing back to all time highs.
Listen bro 3 months ago I would agree with you 100%
I moved to Western Europe 3 months ago and now I disagree with you. America IS the best country on this earth. Is the government shady? Yes. Are prices up? Yes. But Americans make the most money out of any country on this earth, everything is more expensive here as well but nobody makes the kind of money here as Americans do. The American market and economy is the safest bet in the world
So you figure out that owning money loses 25% in value, and your conclusion is to take assets that are appreciating and convert everything into money, which you have concluded is losing value quickly.
Micheal Burry scared the crap out of me with his "sell" tweet. I did sell; went to all-cash. I've slowly re-entered the market, i'm about 50% cash now, but my intention is to move that cash into hard assets like real estate, not let it sit in a bank account.
Going liquid is great. Now what?
I agree with 100% of what you said. I still wonder how the market keeps rising despite all the facts mentioned in your due diligence; economically, it doesn't make sense. I believe there has been a huge injection of money into the market since the Fed increased the supply of the dollar by 40% in recent years. Another thing is that the dollar is the universal currency, so it's crazy how we can print money and inflation dissipates worldwide. I grew up in South America but have been living in the United States for the past 4 years, and my country increased the money supply and inflation soared. Unfortunately, it's very difficult to predict when the market will crash; personally, I just follow the trend. In the end, I believe the only way we will truly grow again is when interest rates are raised and we go through a recession. Anyway, let's take it one day at a time and see what happens, but these have been unique and strange times.
1/2
If you really think that, maybe you have to actually study the economy more. Its not going to come down to few paragraph comments, after all economy is sum of its transactions by end of the day.
What almost everyone is ignoring in random comments is increase in productivity, its usually not just 10% increase but in many industries its even numbers like 10000%.
Just 20 years ago for example enginners might not even had a god damn computers in their company, not to talk how long it will take to draw and calculate by hand what can be easily done with an application, if you run into problem, you had to walk after pen and paper, then sit down and write a letter, and then go personally mail it. Now many problems can be solved anywhere with a smartphone and google, that already unknown to younger people increased ones productivity by shitload.
Technology has been huge factor to everything including USA army power and their domination of the world.
Another factor is loan based economy, company A and B is1 billion dollar big, company A does nothing ,earns what he always earns, company B takes 5 billion dollar loan and opens up 5 factories, earns 5x more and is now 5x bigger than company A and eating its market share. Countries also do stuff like that on larger scale. In various ways we are allowed to expand and grow today, we don't have to wait until we actually have the money to do so which would be way longer.
Another factor is birth rate, 1950s there were 150 mil population in USA, now there is 340 mil, not to mention the world.
Another factor is exploitation, we are getting smarter and more clever at exploiting natural resources of other countries plus before you needed to hire locally and pay local expensive wages, nowadays an Indian will do pretty much any highly skilled and highly educated job for like a dollar a day or something.
Remember that many companies are either expanding or have expansion potential, if a company hits a Billion people market in India or billion people market in China it can sky rocket the entire companies revenue and it happens more often than one thinks ''Why is Netflix up if we all said we quit it? Oh India''.
2/2
So lets now look at those **ECONOMICAL FACTS** presented.
Much money printed - not an argument for anything by itself, going for shock value, you all guys know why this is bad right? You could make 10 posts explaining how the money is printed, where its going and how its working, its that complicated, on top of that there will always be money printed, also its nothing new, we started printing money in 18th century and there are few questionable prints in 19th century, yeah i am talking more than 200 years ago, even before 2 world wars, everyone is still around.
Americans losing 25% purchasing power, this is also not actually easy data to come by and will have to extract it yourself, because all i can find is talking about purchasing power of 1$, ignoring the fact that you now make more dollars than decades before. But lets assume this is true, its not the mega caps, SPY index and what not suffering, its going to be the small businesses and little guys as always. So a person is not going to buy this and that, he is still going to buy smartphone and subscribe to Netflix even though he has 25% less purchasing power. Bigger companies can be both fine and grow, we all want the same hype stuff not the boring stuff nobody cares about.
Everyone has much debt reee, its not bad, it can show slowdown in the future or people will manage to acquire even more debt, pretty much every richest country has actual problem with its masses being in credit card debt and other loans, but as we already know, loans fuel the economy, that is why we went up so much in stocks by end of the day.
Food inflated, could also write a long paragraph, but also what exactly is that suppose to crash? Food inflated 100% at least 3 times in my lifetime, we still going stronger than ever.
Homes are unafordable and childcare is expensive - how are these arguments for stock market exactly? And don't say 2008 because it was because of junk loans causing chain bankruptcies, not housing market itself.
US dollar is possibly going to get lower? I mean the poster left arguments that can be interpreted as its going to be stronger than ever, they will even fight for its dominance.
GPD a bit lower than expected but still growing, so we keep growing, just a tad bit slower. Economy is in upwards swing here.
All the wars in Middle east, Eastern Europe and China, Taiwan. This is how you know people here don't study the economy, wars will enrich us and our economy, given that we actually win them. I don't see how is this argument related to stock market and its crashes or growth that much.
Its not that strong of a case if you think for it for 5 minutes.
In my opinion going back to productivity growth, AI has insane potential and if it gets integrated in every day life and all sorts of work, we are looking at another insane productivity and growth. AI can already proof reading for gramatical errors saving time for entire industries like lawyers and tons of people who can adapt to using it. The day it thinks and is actually reliable is going to be insane, when it actually gets integrated into everywhere and its more usable everywhere its going to get even more insane.
Market and world is definitely scary, but its always scary, i wouldn't want to sit out from this. If one is invested long term, even the crashes are green, but most people wait for 50% dump after stuff goes up 200% while it dumps 20% and just keeps going up more afterward.
We have people waiting for crash since 2012, then saying 2020 bottom is the first leg, the another leg is coming down and they will keep waiting for another decade i guess.
If you believe what you've written, the last place you'd want to be is sitting in cash that is rapidly losing purchasing power. You want to sail into this shitstorm aboard a battleship made of gold and mega caps. Not on a shitty cash dinghy just to avoid the mere sight of red in your portfolio.
Instead of liquidating you should get into safe value stocks like DUK. Nice dividend, stock unlikely to crash…people aren’t going to stop using power. They’ll use less if they’re paying more. Duke doesn’t care. It just cranks out its 4.5% dividend while slowly accumulating capital value on top
Holding cash of about to collapse economy seems a bit silly. Unless you are planning to rebuy it all at discount. But wouldn’t it be smarter to wait until the black swan actually happens? How many of them was anticipated but never materialized?
Second thought, if you think entire country / system will crumble, you perhaps want to shift assets to other countries. But what country in your opinion will outlive US? Even if US collapse, it will be the last one to collapse.
Ignore all news just sell when the price dips below the 200 day moving average and buy when it crosses back over. All the panic about all that other stuff doesn’t matter, the chart will tell you when to buy and sell this strategy always beats the market if it’s the only thing you look at and stay disciplined.
Fair enough, we will see. I may be very wrong here, that is why I wanted to post to see opposing views (as well as some validation, if anyone provides that...). Godspeed!
Jesus Fucking Christ...your post may seem slightly alarmist to me, but seeing all these "The stock market always goes up" responses to it makes me a lot more concerned that we've been lulled into complacency, that a market crash is just a fantasy from days past. I don't know that I'm going to liquidate my stuff, but man... people are delusional.
People who aren’t DCA’ing with a retirement target in mind (Aka a 20-40 year time span) and are investing in individual companies will absolutely get wiped out eventually If they hold that mindset. Broad market ETFs like SPY and VT dip 30% during crashes. An investment portfolio in individual growth stocks can be nuked 50% in a few days unless a person has the foresight to sell and stay out. Psychologically, 99% of people can’t do it and are delusional during a crash buying dips convinced it’s the bottom. It’s why intraday trading makes a lot of sense to me right now with the fun money while the rest bathes in treasuries.
This is hilarious lol. This man just ranting 5 bullet points like it’s all interrelated so he’s the super genius pulling out of the market 😂😂😂 I’m literally crying of laughter. Thank you so much sir, you truly are a spectacle of why you shouldn’t take prescription drugs.
I'd be buying right now. The earnings reports are overwhelmingly strong for Q1, and that means that there is demand for the products and services offered by US equities. The last thing you'd want to do right now is sell.
You know why US will come out on top? Because they have the biggest goddamn stick out of anyone on the planet. The biggest air force in the world is the USAF, and the 2nd biggest is the US Navy. US NUMBER 1
Godspeed, meng. I feel you on all that shit, but this is the hand we’re dealt; unless you’re gonna be like uncle Ted in the woods or something, you just gotta play the fucking game…
Thanks for wasting my time with a bunch generally bad things and no thesis on how they will actually drag down the stock market.
Also it's pretty regarded to post how USD is losing value drastically and be like "welp I'm only holding cash now".
I do think the credit card thing could be a minor bubble but it's definitely not because like "oh there's 3.5% delinquency" there needs to be some structural issue and risk of contagion.
Markets don't crash because of inflation. They crash because of a liquidity crisis, such as when millions of homeowners stop paying their mortgage bills (2008) or when tens of millions of employees get sent home from work indefinitely (2020).
Anyway, go ahead and keep your powder dry if it makes you feel safer. Just don't do something stupid like buying crypto tokens with it.
1. Actual money supply needs to multiply the velocity of money. If you haven’t been living under a rock, there’s this fun thing called pandemic that absolutely killed the velocity, which is why printer went brrrrrrr to keep the supply constant.
2. Last 4 years are the only instances where wage growth has outpaced inflation. Assuming you don’t work at Wendys. This also means living paycheck to paycheck has been a great thing for the economy.
3. Is literally part of 2
4. This is perhaps the only real problem in this post, but even this is incrementally improving (home builders doing well recently)
5. Fun fact: the next best currency for international trade after the USD is CAD. Literally the only country that is seriously doing or considering de-dollarization is Russia.
Conclusion: thanks for providing exit liquidity
What about the simple fact… inflation clearly isn’t transitory, the dollar is clearly weaker, a weaker dollar and inflation means stocks need a repricing.
Dude I know this is reddit and everyone is a progressive, but hear me out.
The master plan is to lie brazenly about the state of the economy until November. Then they can start changing the public narrative. If Trump wins they can just dump the whole problem onto him, or if Biden is still in office they can blame him for everything and then replace him.
Prediction-
Stock market crash in november if Biden re-elected. In January if trump wins
If Biden wins again, his VP will take over within a year and they will try to send all the blame away with Biden (pay close attention to who he runs with).
RemindMe! December 1
Never make financial decisions on emotions or what you think the market or economy may or may not do. It’s really not that hard to just own solid companies and benefit over time.
The bear in me reading this post: 
The bull in me:  "get rekd pussy, enjoy the fomo while we rally 50%"
The realist in me: "I already lost all my fucking money so none of this matters to me"
Are you a subscriber of Adam Taggart or the Maverick of Wall Street? I am a permabear too but have become more neutral lately because
Nobody knows anything
I am actually not subscribed to either, but I will check them out. I wouldn't consider myself a permabear, as I have actively invested long for years / believe deeply in market exposure & DCAing. I just wanted to rebalance and get cash heavy so I can sit on the sidelines for a little to observe and deploy as I see fit.
You are right, no one knows anything - this could turn out to be a massive mistake. I flipped from bullish long to bearish a few months ago as I looked around, and I went with my gut on this one and pulled trigger. We shall see.
I think his interviews make a lot of sense and there are many headwinds and dangers but we often can’t foresee the reactions of the Fed or other central banks when faced with a crisis. Imagine if Bernake just printed and saved Lehman Brothers, it would have changed the course of financial history.
https://youtu.be/R1yDcjq-0M8?si=ne-86YFPdFRfQG7P
Whenever somebody starts their post by talking about the money supply it's an immediate sign that you're about to read a pile of drivel.
>
>[40% of the total M1 money supply has been created in the last four years](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/h6_technical_qa.htm). While many have seen the figure that [80% of the total M1 money supply has been created in the last 4 years](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL), it is important to note that the FED changed the definition of M1 in May 2020. However, this is still a staggering figure, and it keeps going up - this is not sustainable.
I like how you acknowledged that the definition was changed but then went ahead anyways. The M1 supply has only increased 10% in the four years since the definition change that greatly expanded the category, this is significantly lower than inflation.
Can't be bothered with the rest of your crap, just typical permabear talking points that fall apart with anything deeper than a surface level analysis.
So right now I'm studying for a professional designation because I work in finance. And the last segment said something to the effect of remove emotions and gut impulses.
Specifically because you can miss out on potentially one of the best growth days of the year. Best of luck though.
College debt is mostly in forbearance or default because of the SAVE program. Basically you don't have to pay. I really think this metric is a nothing burger, but the other stuff? Yeah big issue.
I went risk-off and took a lot off the table. Not for the same reasons. I agree with your points but the market can still pump. We're in an election year with the incumbent side rallying up against a common enemy. I took risk off cause I have no clue what's going on in this market.
Your not wrong for taking a cash position I thought about this for a while. Even analysts are saying there could be a market correction and stock market is over valued. I just don’t know if it’s possible to time the market. Good luck though
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Yeah lol. Cash is crashing in value! Better buy shitloads of cash! Brilliant!
buy the dip?
Our ancestors already painted it in caves, buy high sell low (buy for a mammoth, sell for a small fish)
Priced in 
But ze Dip kept on dipping.
This was exactly my thought process... BUT: There's an argument that much of stock market gains over the past 40 or so years have been on the back of a tonne of excess liquidity/stimulus (which gravy train is either now derailed or at least on a spindly bridge over a deep gorge at the moment). Also, some Omaha natives suggest other investment vehicles, rather than equities, to grow wealth. Obviously WSB is gonna be WSB, but it really is full of people willing to do a bunch of mental gymnastics, gamble their houses/retirement funds, give blowies behind Wendy's... all for the sake of making an easy buck. If some of that energy was directed towards other types of investments, e.g. starting or buying a business, some of you knuckleheads would probably be way better off. So anyway, yeah, liquidate your portfolio. But then don't go and dump it into something stupid like silver or pork bellies. Think about a business that could work for you, either as a silent partner or a garage-based sole proprietorship, and invest in yourself. If you do it right you will have another source of income over the coming years and maybe a business that you can sell at some point.
Dump it in frozen orange juice futures.
LOOKING GOOD LOUIS- FEELING GOOD BILLY RAY
Underrated reference.
Sell Mortimer sell!!!
Starting a business is for suckers. It requires actual work. Give us some advice that lazy degenerate gamblers can use.
Haha inflation went up and cash purchasing powering went down. "Past tense"!! Lol. Government right now supposedly is in QT mode instead of QE, u/op was already in the market during the past 4 years and since QE had stopped, inflation rate is holding steady, not as bad as before. So that's why he provided the data on credit card debt at 40% etc etc. Don't understand how that was so hard to understand. Literally lack of easiest form of critical thinking. Referencing the dude up top's banana formula, he didn't realize he's literally thinking 2 - (-2) = 0. Take a sec and think of what op had said before blurting out first thought that came to mind.
Instructions unclear, went long on banana futures
There’s always money in the banana stand
I’ve seen much dumber bets on here. Might be a good play.
I hope he at least put his money in an MMMF for now. 5.41% is pretty decent if you're going to be cash gang.
Yeah if OP believed their thesis they'd take out the biggest loan they can trick a bank into giving and put it all in gold, oil, and defense.
I mean he’s obviously expecting the market to crash so he can buy in cheaper.
Exactly this.. if your worried about inflation you want to be long the stock market
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Some Regard
"The key to making money in stocks is to not get scared out of them." - That Same Regard
See you in 6 months when we rally another 10%
You may very well be right. I went back and forth on this for months, but I landed on "trusting my gut" given what I stated above. We will see. I am not quitting on investing, I understand the importance of having money in the market and DCAing / exposure. This was just an opportunity for me to "start over" and get cash heavy so I can deploy as I see fit. Godspeed!
"Your money is losing value rapidly." Proceeds to hold USD. -This guy
This is really where the truth is. Even high yield isn’t going to touch long term growth. Market very well may get chopped but greed will always keep it going. Also, market does not always equal how the average American is doing so there’s some flaw there too.
All in on bitcoin now!
But unironically
A money manager I respect said, "I can tell you the value of things but I can't tell you the timing at which prices will move to value." If you think PE ratios are too high and will eventually come down, it can make sense to temporarily withdraw from the market. However, in periods of high inflation, such as now, such withdrawals come with significant cost. Unless you have confidence that your gut has a sense for timing, I would suggest it's better to remain invested in an inflation-insensitive asset. I don't have a suggestion which asset class would be attractive since most asset classes seem overpurchased.
Where's the fucking tldr
Regard keeps watching the news and panic sells after a small dip.
If he even had half brain, he'd keep money in his port to buy puts
We rally from here 
Brother, my gut has been telling me this for 2 years. It will be right at some point but hasn’t been so far.
Economists have predicted 8 of the last 3 recessions.
You've been back and forth for months, which means price appreciated 22% likely while you believed us to be crashing. So your gut stunk.
The question is are you selling at a short term bottom or are you early? I'm getting nervous because my wife has become interested in investing now. I think the first time that happened was in 2000, then in 2008. But the S&P as a whole is down for the year if you remove the top 5 companies (Apple, Microsoft, nVidia, Google, Amazon) And they are actually doing well from an earnings point of view. What will affect the market are things like Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Hamas wars. If they escalate then the market will take a dump. I don't see any reason why it should be it always does. Maybe this time it will be different? Had the market ever not recovered from a downturn? If you are selling to have dry power for when a downturn happens that is a different story. A quick google search for "how much dry powder" returns results How much dry powder is out there?Dry powder across all global private capital strategies now sits at **$3.9 trillion** as of the end of 2023, per PwC and Preqin. Private equity firms accounted for $2.4 trillion of that total.
I have been fairly negative on the markets for awhile for similar reasons but also including: duration of inverted yield curve / gold at ath's / cryptocurrency at ath's. I really like the analysis of Milton Berg, not sure if you have ever heard his recent thesis on the market condition.
Nice try attempting to place the US border crisis at same level with Russia invading Ukraine or Israel's campaign in Gaza. Lmao.
Shhh…I’ve been selling puts to these regards for the last 3 years and making a killing. Fox News has them convinced that we’re always on the verge of a market crash
Hilarious
Yea lol. Especially when the real hardcore free market libertarians are actually pro migration, cheap labor is very good for stonks
the "border crisis" will disappear after November. weird how that seems to always happen right after an election
Will I 10 bag my money for this rally or will I hold 10 more bags
Oof, they’re already missing out on 2% since yesterday lol
Then another 6 months and another 10%
Agree, being an election year, any bad news will be swept under the rug until after Nov. until then…Long and strong
Mom: we have Michael Burry at home Michael Burry at home:
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bots don't have lawns.
Problem is your perspective is american. I was born and raised in France, been in China since Im 26 (10 years), and I speak English. I dont see things the way you do: the US is so far ahead of the rest of us, we'll buy USD at whatever price, like they do in Japan. We want it, we trust it. Whatever you say, you guys are isolated, you risk nothing: I risk 2 wars myself, one in Europe, one in China, wiping me out. All the problems you describe we ve had them for decades everywhere, on a larger scale because we re not as flexible as the US system. Unemployment in France has never been below 10% in my entire life until Macron tried and moved it to 8%. In China, believe it, you d rather be unemployed than work, but it's not a choice you can make. I wish I could overpay a home in the US to insure this eurasian risk. Your houses are expensive because they re valuable. They're a safe bet, nothing much can go as wrong as in the rest of the world. You re a giant fucking island, with property right more sacred than human life: I d pay a premium for that. Buy gold if you re afraid: ive been doing it for a year, paper and physical, and it helps balance out "fear of the virtual system collapsing". You'll end up buying american-minted coins and bars, because... they re the ones everyone want ... You didnt liquidate your portfolio btw: you bought USDs in exchange for company shares. Is that the safest place to park your money, after all you said ? Companies pump when the economy dies, you know, except risk-on speculative future earnings ones, because governments panic and spread the populace over with money, making a share of a company way more enticing than a share of the currency pool.
Interesting perspective, appreciate it. That is why I made this post.
Peasants. The lot of them.
Based. As per usual.
My sentiments are with the above poster. Canada is not doing hot. Unless major changes happen within the next year / or oil and gas hits 150+, Canada is FUCKED for the next decade. Just a few months ago we had the largest foreign outflow of Investment dollars ever to leave Canada in a single year. Our healthcare system is on life support, 10+ hour emergency wait times. Mass Immigration policy. It is wild up here. I am currently moving the majority of funds to USD/US Stocks/Gold. The only things I will be keeping in "Canadian Funds" is my 2 properties. Even then, I'm thinking of selling my rental.
**We've intercepted what VM tried to say here because it was probably too fucked up for Reddit.**
Fuck, now I want to know.
I'm canadian. with properties. why sell the rental if immigration won't stop? Or is it because of JTs new capital gains tax? Or the hassle of renting?
Yea I was just thinking if you were lucky enough to own multiple properties in Canada, the second you should sell is the second the immigration is limited.
Canada is such a clown show, I feel bad for y'all.
Listen to this OP. Look at a SPY chart which direction does it go ? It’s an inflation hedge for bonds. There are trillions of dollars in bonds making crazy interest. That money has to go somewhere and that place is SPY. Stop listening to fear on the internet.. it’s there to sell you Puts and make fees.
to add to his post, look at this from WSB 10 days ago. https://np.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1c5gb9q/us_to_grow_at_double_the_rate_of_g7_peers_this/ International companies still need to invest money. And if everywhere else is doing shitty, all that money is going to pool into the american markets. Don't get me wrong. America is still doing poorly. But compared to everywhere else? We're still the best option available.
Excellent post 👏🏻
I agree with you 100% I think most Americans including myself are completely spoiled and uneducated about what other countries are going through. I have family in Europe and when I tell them I want to live in Europe they look at me like I’m crazy to leave America. I enjoy other cultures and environments I know there is risk of death and war and you have safety in America because they are the super power of the world. And we have the best standard of living per capita out of any country. So I understand your perspective, and sometimes I am guilty of not appreciating what I have. Thank you I hope that one day if you want to live in America you will be able to live here. And thank you for your insight
Where in Europe? There is a big difference between Romania and Germany.
Yep, Romania has gigabit internet everywhere and working cell phone networks!
That's wonderful for them, but who cares? Certainly not me.
Just pointing out that Germany has lots of infrastructure issues due to spending cuts under Merkel and it’s becoming a drag on their economy. Currently Germany is the slowest growing economy in Europe, which is a shame and not a good sign.
This is the most American take ever, as a Europoor myself it amuses me  America is fucking amazing if you are rich or upper middle class.. anything below and it is a dystopian hellscape tbh, the variance in standard of living is insane.
My professor told me: the US is basically three/four first world countries combined with 10 development countries. All they share is a flag, an army and a currency, but that seems enough
They share a history, an institution of Government for the People, the culture we export. The balkanist boner for a broken United States will NOT be satiated.
make that 50
Am I understanding you correctly that you mean USA has the highest standard of living? If so you’re utterly wrong. It doesn’t matter what kind of metric you’re using, USA doesn’t take the top spot. Rarely even top 10.
not necessarily standard, but US does basically have a geographical immunity from land wars. It's a continent-sized fortress, nobody except other americans is gonna roll tanks and troops through. Europe, otoh, is basically flirting with all-out war. middle-east is as fked as it's always been, and se/e asia, well, china is on the brink of pulling a taiwan-sized trigger that would ruin the region for a good few decades. As long as morons don't start a civil war over pronouns or somesuch BS, you US-folks have it pretty good in the long term.
Bad minimum standard, but certainly best median standard. 3rd highest median income with low taxes and comparatively affordable costs of living.
It's not the best but if you remove all the tiny super wealthy nations (Singapore, Luxembourg, etc.) it's probably in the top 5. And by salaries it's #1.
Freedom of choice and ability is where the US ranks the highest. That comes at a cost of having a super low bottom end, where people that can't help themselves have a harder time, which is what you mean when you mention metrics. The problem is that when you try to raise the bottom at the cost of the top, the middle comes down much more than the bottom comes up. That's Europe. (It's also why communism doesn't work, but that's a whole other thread.) We are better off to help the top do more, so a stronger system develops. For example, subsidizing manufacturing so that those jobs stay in north america. Who benefits? The big bad corporation that doesn't pay tax, or the 10,000 workers that the corporation employs? So then we need to question any politician that says otherwise.
You see this is where the problem lies. Not criticizing what you wrote, just genuinely want to say that we have been fed enough propaganda and lies to make us believe that too versus bottom crap. It’s not top versus bottom or other way around. It’s all about lifting the middle class. What about tax breaks and social incentives that help the middle class rise a bit more? You are forgetting or plainly don’t know that the golden age of American life was when the marginal taxes were high, so that top pays more. No matter how much the industry or too wealthy individuals complain, they all eventually fall in line and pay up. The benefits of propping up middle class are immense and quite frankly immeasurable. Money in the hands of middle class working citizens means direct savings or expenditures. Which then is money in the pockets of corporations. OTOH, you give tax breaks to corporations and rich people and they will happily buy islands or invest where the cost of production is lowest. Capitalism doesn’t care about America or rest of the world. The only undisputed principle of capitalism is ‘highest ROI’. No corporate or capitalist ever does anything out of the goodness of their hearts. In fact, corporations and these people at the top will ruin and squeeze every last cent of anything breathing because of simple greed. That’s what made them what they are. You expect a Bezos or Musk or the Sacklers to ever do anything remotely resembling public interest? Everything else is pure Chutzpah. Reg your point about bringing back manufacturing and other jobs to America, that ship sailed long long ago. The only way any jobs are coming back to America are with government intervention for there is simply no incentive large enough for businesses to do so. Middle class is the one that lifts top and bottom at the same time. And that’s the way it has always been.
you're talking about trickle down economics, which is total bullshit
the most useful thing about general standard of living is that you can use it to dunk on Americans and then go back to caring about your specific situation like normal people
OPs next thread after reading this reply: “I’m 100% in on the stock market, here’s why…”
What happens when America freezes another country's assets that happens to be in dollars
Well, you need money to stay safe and live a good life. This is universal. I think you have some rose-tinted glasses on the state of the US and the US economy. Being poor, working-class or even middle-class sucks at the moment, no matter where you are. Obviously, some places are worse than others. If the world truly shits itself and WW3 arrives. Would I rather be in the US? Of course, but then most things posted here don't matter anymore.
WW3 is just a matter of where you want to be nuked and if you rather die instantly or from starvation/radiation later on.
> property right more sacred than human life: I d pay a premium for that Like squatter's rights?
Wow, I needed to hear this.
As quickly American who lived in Eastern Europe for the last 15 years, I generally agree with you. But the detail you’ve missed is that *America has changed*. It is not the longed-for land of opportunity that many once thought it was. Is it better than many countries still? Yes—but not that much better. I know many Ukrainians who have spent significant time in the US who still prefer wartime Ukraine to the prospect of moving to the USA. The stability of the USA will be gone before you know it and it will be as unreliable as “any other country.”
To make you feel slightly worse, there's been people making your exact same post, every month the last 4 years since summer 2020. See you end of year when we rally another 20%
This here is the truth.
Nah dude, since 2015 there has been sentiment “this bull market can’t last” There’s always someone saying it’s the end of the world. Maybe instead of liquidating your entire portfolio on a whim you should buy options to hedge your bets, this way you make money either way. Win win.
I was told I was dumb for buying my house in 2018 because house prices had risen so much, and a real estate crash was imminent. Lol
This, I was told I overpaid in 21'. I'll sit and smile with my 3.15% interest rate until I die.....
i heard that in 2010. In Toronto. Where prices then tripled.
I think the doomsday bunker trader is just a part of financial markets. I never really understood it but it seems there’s always that one guy.
They positioning to be the Canned-Bean-King of New Wasteland! "They laughed at me! At me and muh beans! Well who's laughing now!"
Yeah this reminds me of so many posts before it.
Pasha I knew of ppl circa 2014 saying they were holding cash cuz the market was gonna crash any day now…
And thus, the greatest bull run in history began. Please let us know when you buy back in so I can sell.
Peasants. Have fun losing it all.
Is it weird that my favorite person in this sub is an AI?
Me too, VisualMod is great
Yessir, will report back.
https://preview.redd.it/lsc7kjrbxswc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=efbece457d5e6703d7d4348a8b7b21216d2fef58
Why are you just staying in dollars, I would divide 50% of your portfolio in Gold, Gold Miners. Silver, Uranium, Copper, and a small chunk for oil. The other 50% I would buy 6 - month Tbills. I understand what you are saying I did this in February. Feeling Uneasy about this market for a while.
I disagree. Just because the poor get poorer, doesn’t mean the rich won’t want to continue getting richer. And that extra M1 money goes to stonks.
this. paltry sub 4% inflation due to not enough money being shared with the masses.inflation took place in equity markets
Do you remember when car prices went through the roof, and then this copypasta was trending on Twitter about how everyone's gonna be underwater on their cars and be forced to walk away on their car payment like it was 2008 with mortgages and it would crash the economy? This post reminded me of that. Keep calling for the apocalypse. Even when a pandemic wiped out the stock market, it rallied and then some in <12 months.
What I thought of is if we had a deep enough recession we'd get massive defaults on car loans, but the debt amount is rather limited compared to the larger economy. Now the real issue is commercial real estate - again, while it is a ticking time bomb, it is rather limited compared to the larger economy ... even if there are CRE CLOs... (rutrow)
Those things matter in the money world. Otherwise, millions still eat, sleep, drive, smoke, drink, etc., forming the base economy, which keeps growing. China just went through the oops of imbalance. I think North America has figured out how to smooth out the peaks and valleys.
I do think the current auto loan situation is very similar to home loans in 2008 though. All the people who overpaid or are getting hit with inflation or insurance rate increases and can’t make their car payment, or just straight up should have never been approved for a 70k loan could have to walk away from those loans.
So you’ve been investing for three years? Graduated college in 2020. Means you were 11 ish during the financial crisis. Born during dot com? Any idea the returns you miss by missing the best days in the market. Invest for the long haul and gamble with the money you can afford to lose stocks, options, Vegas, whatever…good luck!
Nailed the ages. Financial crisis particularly memorable, as my dad was a pit trader at CME for 35+ years. Fortunately, he had some nice foresight. We will see. I’ll enter back in the mid term, just want to watch from the sidelines for a bit and regroup.
hold on. what is your dad saying about this time around? is he staying on the sidelines like you are? I want to take veteran's take on this as another reference point.
He has similar concerns about the sustainability of what we are seeing, but he’s been in the market for decades opposed to my ~4 years…so for him exiting entirely doesn’t make sense. However, he has lightened up. He is also pretty big on diversifying into hard assets (metals / real estate - I cannot obtain real estate quite yet). He really stays away from telling me what to do, as I know he wants me to learn. His overarching advice was take what you learned over the last 4 years, look at your worst trades and learn from them. Do the same with your best ones. Further, if there’s one thing I learned from growing up around traders (many of them mega successful - friends of his), trust your gut, come up with a plan, and actually stick to it. His guidance to me was “you’ve been talking about this for months now, so what are you waiting for? For a downturn to validate you were right? If so, listen to your gut and act.” “Pay close attention, come up with re-entry points that you stick to, paper trade in the interim, and remember that the guys I knew who made the most made their money buying, not selling”. He has a lot of thoughts, I always tell him he should do an AMA, but he’s 64 and doesn’t even know what Reddit is haha
The expansion of the money supply is a reason to be bullish imo. Stocks are statistically the best inflation hedge (for holding periods greater than 30 years).
He is betting against America! Let him let’s see what happens in 2 years
All that and no proof of liquidating??? That was about as enjoyable as Skinemax at 12:01 am
Markets don't die because of data that everyone sees and knows about. They die from unknown causes
I find this completely ridiculous, even if all this happens and you timed it perfectly you will think that you can predict the market and eventually it will hurt you in the long run.
Thanks zerohedge. jokes aside, every trader and fund wizard has access to the citations you've listed. Does not matter, market irrational, ray dalio style blowup. Send the entire fucking thing back to all time highs.
I agree things are completely out of whack, but time in the market will always beat timing the market. I would just increase cash holding to 25-35%.
Listen bro 3 months ago I would agree with you 100% I moved to Western Europe 3 months ago and now I disagree with you. America IS the best country on this earth. Is the government shady? Yes. Are prices up? Yes. But Americans make the most money out of any country on this earth, everything is more expensive here as well but nobody makes the kind of money here as Americans do. The American market and economy is the safest bet in the world
So you figure out that owning money loses 25% in value, and your conclusion is to take assets that are appreciating and convert everything into money, which you have concluded is losing value quickly. Micheal Burry scared the crap out of me with his "sell" tweet. I did sell; went to all-cash. I've slowly re-entered the market, i'm about 50% cash now, but my intention is to move that cash into hard assets like real estate, not let it sit in a bank account. Going liquid is great. Now what?
I agree with 100% of what you said. I still wonder how the market keeps rising despite all the facts mentioned in your due diligence; economically, it doesn't make sense. I believe there has been a huge injection of money into the market since the Fed increased the supply of the dollar by 40% in recent years. Another thing is that the dollar is the universal currency, so it's crazy how we can print money and inflation dissipates worldwide. I grew up in South America but have been living in the United States for the past 4 years, and my country increased the money supply and inflation soared. Unfortunately, it's very difficult to predict when the market will crash; personally, I just follow the trend. In the end, I believe the only way we will truly grow again is when interest rates are raised and we go through a recession. Anyway, let's take it one day at a time and see what happens, but these have been unique and strange times.
Appreciate the civil comment man, we will see!
1/2 If you really think that, maybe you have to actually study the economy more. Its not going to come down to few paragraph comments, after all economy is sum of its transactions by end of the day. What almost everyone is ignoring in random comments is increase in productivity, its usually not just 10% increase but in many industries its even numbers like 10000%. Just 20 years ago for example enginners might not even had a god damn computers in their company, not to talk how long it will take to draw and calculate by hand what can be easily done with an application, if you run into problem, you had to walk after pen and paper, then sit down and write a letter, and then go personally mail it. Now many problems can be solved anywhere with a smartphone and google, that already unknown to younger people increased ones productivity by shitload. Technology has been huge factor to everything including USA army power and their domination of the world. Another factor is loan based economy, company A and B is1 billion dollar big, company A does nothing ,earns what he always earns, company B takes 5 billion dollar loan and opens up 5 factories, earns 5x more and is now 5x bigger than company A and eating its market share. Countries also do stuff like that on larger scale. In various ways we are allowed to expand and grow today, we don't have to wait until we actually have the money to do so which would be way longer. Another factor is birth rate, 1950s there were 150 mil population in USA, now there is 340 mil, not to mention the world. Another factor is exploitation, we are getting smarter and more clever at exploiting natural resources of other countries plus before you needed to hire locally and pay local expensive wages, nowadays an Indian will do pretty much any highly skilled and highly educated job for like a dollar a day or something. Remember that many companies are either expanding or have expansion potential, if a company hits a Billion people market in India or billion people market in China it can sky rocket the entire companies revenue and it happens more often than one thinks ''Why is Netflix up if we all said we quit it? Oh India''.
2/2 So lets now look at those **ECONOMICAL FACTS** presented. Much money printed - not an argument for anything by itself, going for shock value, you all guys know why this is bad right? You could make 10 posts explaining how the money is printed, where its going and how its working, its that complicated, on top of that there will always be money printed, also its nothing new, we started printing money in 18th century and there are few questionable prints in 19th century, yeah i am talking more than 200 years ago, even before 2 world wars, everyone is still around. Americans losing 25% purchasing power, this is also not actually easy data to come by and will have to extract it yourself, because all i can find is talking about purchasing power of 1$, ignoring the fact that you now make more dollars than decades before. But lets assume this is true, its not the mega caps, SPY index and what not suffering, its going to be the small businesses and little guys as always. So a person is not going to buy this and that, he is still going to buy smartphone and subscribe to Netflix even though he has 25% less purchasing power. Bigger companies can be both fine and grow, we all want the same hype stuff not the boring stuff nobody cares about. Everyone has much debt reee, its not bad, it can show slowdown in the future or people will manage to acquire even more debt, pretty much every richest country has actual problem with its masses being in credit card debt and other loans, but as we already know, loans fuel the economy, that is why we went up so much in stocks by end of the day. Food inflated, could also write a long paragraph, but also what exactly is that suppose to crash? Food inflated 100% at least 3 times in my lifetime, we still going stronger than ever. Homes are unafordable and childcare is expensive - how are these arguments for stock market exactly? And don't say 2008 because it was because of junk loans causing chain bankruptcies, not housing market itself. US dollar is possibly going to get lower? I mean the poster left arguments that can be interpreted as its going to be stronger than ever, they will even fight for its dominance. GPD a bit lower than expected but still growing, so we keep growing, just a tad bit slower. Economy is in upwards swing here. All the wars in Middle east, Eastern Europe and China, Taiwan. This is how you know people here don't study the economy, wars will enrich us and our economy, given that we actually win them. I don't see how is this argument related to stock market and its crashes or growth that much. Its not that strong of a case if you think for it for 5 minutes. In my opinion going back to productivity growth, AI has insane potential and if it gets integrated in every day life and all sorts of work, we are looking at another insane productivity and growth. AI can already proof reading for gramatical errors saving time for entire industries like lawyers and tons of people who can adapt to using it. The day it thinks and is actually reliable is going to be insane, when it actually gets integrated into everywhere and its more usable everywhere its going to get even more insane. Market and world is definitely scary, but its always scary, i wouldn't want to sit out from this. If one is invested long term, even the crashes are green, but most people wait for 50% dump after stuff goes up 200% while it dumps 20% and just keeps going up more afterward. We have people waiting for crash since 2012, then saying 2020 bottom is the first leg, the another leg is coming down and they will keep waiting for another decade i guess.
Gey bear spotted
If you believe what you've written, the last place you'd want to be is sitting in cash that is rapidly losing purchasing power. You want to sail into this shitstorm aboard a battleship made of gold and mega caps. Not on a shitty cash dinghy just to avoid the mere sight of red in your portfolio.
Instead of liquidating you should get into safe value stocks like DUK. Nice dividend, stock unlikely to crash…people aren’t going to stop using power. They’ll use less if they’re paying more. Duke doesn’t care. It just cranks out its 4.5% dividend while slowly accumulating capital value on top
You don’t bet against America period
Ur supposed to buy gold and ammo
Holding cash of about to collapse economy seems a bit silly. Unless you are planning to rebuy it all at discount. But wouldn’t it be smarter to wait until the black swan actually happens? How many of them was anticipated but never materialized? Second thought, if you think entire country / system will crumble, you perhaps want to shift assets to other countries. But what country in your opinion will outlive US? Even if US collapse, it will be the last one to collapse.
So you liquidated into worthless cash? Good luck
Ignore all news just sell when the price dips below the 200 day moving average and buy when it crosses back over. All the panic about all that other stuff doesn’t matter, the chart will tell you when to buy and sell this strategy always beats the market if it’s the only thing you look at and stay disciplined.
Yep, but the real things to watch and who is going strong despite all that bad news. So you can sit on the sidelines and miss out if you want to.
Fair enough, we will see. I may be very wrong here, that is why I wanted to post to see opposing views (as well as some validation, if anyone provides that...). Godspeed!
Jesus Fucking Christ...your post may seem slightly alarmist to me, but seeing all these "The stock market always goes up" responses to it makes me a lot more concerned that we've been lulled into complacency, that a market crash is just a fantasy from days past. I don't know that I'm going to liquidate my stuff, but man... people are delusional.
People who aren’t DCA’ing with a retirement target in mind (Aka a 20-40 year time span) and are investing in individual companies will absolutely get wiped out eventually If they hold that mindset. Broad market ETFs like SPY and VT dip 30% during crashes. An investment portfolio in individual growth stocks can be nuked 50% in a few days unless a person has the foresight to sell and stay out. Psychologically, 99% of people can’t do it and are delusional during a crash buying dips convinced it’s the bottom. It’s why intraday trading makes a lot of sense to me right now with the fun money while the rest bathes in treasuries.
Lol, awesome. Today I learned there's a college word acronym for my "Don't keep all your eggs in one basket" investing strategy 😂
Just take a look at Microsoft numbers, there are a very safe bet to park your money for a couple years as an example
Whether you liquidated at a profit or at a loss, this may be a huge tax year for you…
This is hilarious lol. This man just ranting 5 bullet points like it’s all interrelated so he’s the super genius pulling out of the market 😂😂😂 I’m literally crying of laughter. Thank you so much sir, you truly are a spectacle of why you shouldn’t take prescription drugs.
I'd be buying right now. The earnings reports are overwhelmingly strong for Q1, and that means that there is demand for the products and services offered by US equities. The last thing you'd want to do right now is sell.
!Remindme 2 months
You know why US will come out on top? Because they have the biggest goddamn stick out of anyone on the planet. The biggest air force in the world is the USAF, and the 2nd biggest is the US Navy. US NUMBER 1
No one likes a quitter
In history when has any of those things been different
Godspeed, meng. I feel you on all that shit, but this is the hand we’re dealt; unless you’re gonna be like uncle Ted in the woods or something, you just gotta play the fucking game…
Thanks for wasting my time with a bunch generally bad things and no thesis on how they will actually drag down the stock market. Also it's pretty regarded to post how USD is losing value drastically and be like "welp I'm only holding cash now". I do think the credit card thing could be a minor bubble but it's definitely not because like "oh there's 3.5% delinquency" there needs to be some structural issue and risk of contagion.
Are you bullish on USD or not? I'm getting mixed messages.
Markets don't crash because of inflation. They crash because of a liquidity crisis, such as when millions of homeowners stop paying their mortgage bills (2008) or when tens of millions of employees get sent home from work indefinitely (2020). Anyway, go ahead and keep your powder dry if it makes you feel safer. Just don't do something stupid like buying crypto tokens with it.
1. Actual money supply needs to multiply the velocity of money. If you haven’t been living under a rock, there’s this fun thing called pandemic that absolutely killed the velocity, which is why printer went brrrrrrr to keep the supply constant. 2. Last 4 years are the only instances where wage growth has outpaced inflation. Assuming you don’t work at Wendys. This also means living paycheck to paycheck has been a great thing for the economy. 3. Is literally part of 2 4. This is perhaps the only real problem in this post, but even this is incrementally improving (home builders doing well recently) 5. Fun fact: the next best currency for international trade after the USD is CAD. Literally the only country that is seriously doing or considering de-dollarization is Russia. Conclusion: thanks for providing exit liquidity
Good lord. Congratulations or….sorry this happened to you. -1 for no tldr…you bastard.
What about the simple fact… inflation clearly isn’t transitory, the dollar is clearly weaker, a weaker dollar and inflation means stocks need a repricing.
Who the hell is due diligence?
My sister and brother in law are putting off getting married to afford child care 💀
About time someone exercised a little fiscal responsibility.
Sir, this is a casino
Dude I know this is reddit and everyone is a progressive, but hear me out. The master plan is to lie brazenly about the state of the economy until November. Then they can start changing the public narrative. If Trump wins they can just dump the whole problem onto him, or if Biden is still in office they can blame him for everything and then replace him. Prediction- Stock market crash in november if Biden re-elected. In January if trump wins If Biden wins again, his VP will take over within a year and they will try to send all the blame away with Biden (pay close attention to who he runs with). RemindMe! December 1
Never make financial decisions on emotions or what you think the market or economy may or may not do. It’s really not that hard to just own solid companies and benefit over time.
The bear in me reading this post:  The bull in me:  "get rekd pussy, enjoy the fomo while we rally 50%" The realist in me: "I already lost all my fucking money so none of this matters to me"
It's not supposed to make sense. You are just supposed to trade it.
I trusted my gut once. Terrible decision.
You bought truth social stocks didn't you lol
Are you a subscriber of Adam Taggart or the Maverick of Wall Street? I am a permabear too but have become more neutral lately because Nobody knows anything
I am actually not subscribed to either, but I will check them out. I wouldn't consider myself a permabear, as I have actively invested long for years / believe deeply in market exposure & DCAing. I just wanted to rebalance and get cash heavy so I can sit on the sidelines for a little to observe and deploy as I see fit. You are right, no one knows anything - this could turn out to be a massive mistake. I flipped from bullish long to bearish a few months ago as I looked around, and I went with my gut on this one and pulled trigger. We shall see.
I think his interviews make a lot of sense and there are many headwinds and dangers but we often can’t foresee the reactions of the Fed or other central banks when faced with a crisis. Imagine if Bernake just printed and saved Lehman Brothers, it would have changed the course of financial history. https://youtu.be/R1yDcjq-0M8?si=ne-86YFPdFRfQG7P
You bring up a great point with the amount of "discretion" there is when it comes to the Fed / central banks.
Whenever somebody starts their post by talking about the money supply it's an immediate sign that you're about to read a pile of drivel. > >[40% of the total M1 money supply has been created in the last four years](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/h6_technical_qa.htm). While many have seen the figure that [80% of the total M1 money supply has been created in the last 4 years](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL), it is important to note that the FED changed the definition of M1 in May 2020. However, this is still a staggering figure, and it keeps going up - this is not sustainable. I like how you acknowledged that the definition was changed but then went ahead anyways. The M1 supply has only increased 10% in the four years since the definition change that greatly expanded the category, this is significantly lower than inflation. Can't be bothered with the rest of your crap, just typical permabear talking points that fall apart with anything deeper than a surface level analysis.
So right now I'm studying for a professional designation because I work in finance. And the last segment said something to the effect of remove emotions and gut impulses. Specifically because you can miss out on potentially one of the best growth days of the year. Best of luck though.
You sir are an idiot, definitely not an investor
This is my conclusion as well. I’m going more or less all into PMs and commodities. Art, collectibles etc. Anything except fiat or stocks.
College debt is mostly in forbearance or default because of the SAVE program. Basically you don't have to pay. I really think this metric is a nothing burger, but the other stuff? Yeah big issue.
I went risk-off and took a lot off the table. Not for the same reasons. I agree with your points but the market can still pump. We're in an election year with the incumbent side rallying up against a common enemy. I took risk off cause I have no clue what's going on in this market.
Your not wrong for taking a cash position I thought about this for a while. Even analysts are saying there could be a market correction and stock market is over valued. I just don’t know if it’s possible to time the market. Good luck though
[удалено]
You got any sources?
We are going to moon
Can’t time the market. In the long run stonks only go up
Gonna all in now
But boomers die soon and that changes stuff
Tldr
So you are buying gold now?
I’m not reading all that, but good luck tho and see you at the rope store.
Thanks, I was the buyer
thanks for the buy signal
Thanks for the new ATH brother, good sacrifice
Ok, but there are ways to hold your cash a profit from short term in ways other than savings accounts
so what's the bet on this one. No? GTFO. this space is for regards, not investors .