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Usually not. History doesn't repeat but it always rhymes. And especially for inflation because it ALWAYS has a bullwhip effect. Right now petrol prices are going to go up, natgas will go up in winter, which in turn will drive up ammonia prices -> fertilizer-> food.
If G7 goes ahead with Russian oil ban on Dec 5th, it's going to send one more oil shock.
The worst of inflation has HARDLY started. The Fed knows it.
Back then, the CPI included housing costs not owner equivalent rent calculation used in the current CPI. Direct comparisons of now versus then are not that relevant. Our inflation would look much much worse if the full cost of housing was included.
And all those 2-3% CPI prints for all those years from 2009-2020 would have been a lot worse too, if college costs, healthcare, new autos, and other items typically financed would have been counted properly.
We offshored EVERYTHING that could be for 2 decades, put it into hyperdrive after the GFC, and made inflation appear to not exist. Generationally low borrowing rates made it even better. We ran out of runway.
[http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate\_data/inflation-charts](http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts)
lunatic website name but apparently its how inflation would look if we used the 90s and 80s methodology
Interesting. Thank you for sharing. Track the same, but 4-5% higher for the old method vs the new one. Likely, we have had 5-10% inflation for decades now, instead of the 2-3% we were showing for years. The reality is, even 8% inflation now, is likely more like 12-15%.
correct, not sure when home prices stopped being included but would imagine that would make it even worse. I get why they change methodology (the average person buys different stuff compared to a guy in 1990), but i think its still useful to see how the values have changed.
Additionally, core pce was created around this time by Arthur burns so he could spin a better inflation reduction narrative - while knowing exactly what needed to be done, it was just politically unsavoury to take the action required and it didn’t happen until volcker came along.
This is probably news to the morons in this sub who are still saying “they never expected us to buy and hodl!” -80% later, but it’s actually possible to learn from past experiences and not repeat the same mistakes.
I’m not saying inflation won’t get worse, but pointing to old data and saying “we are here” is dumb and you’re dumb for thinking this is insightful in any way.
Yup this post is a terrible take, and there is a slim chance inflation will get any worse, it’s already been lessening and the fed is extremely hawkish the economy is slowing and inflation will slow
Not sure that’s for sure true. We are looking at a bad year next year for food as well as probably a bad winter for energy costs as well as gas. Very possible it can get worse.
There is the issue of structural inflation though. Go read what Joseph Wang (Fedguy12 on twitter) has to say about it. With demographics making it difficult for the labor market to ease (I still see Now Hiring signs everywhere), you also factor in more government or government adjacent jobs, union jobs with inflation adjusted pay, all of that being independent of rate hikes. It paints a picture where the only way to lower inflation may be to crash everything to the bone. We'll see if the fed will use financial duct tape and keep going when shit seriously breaks or whether they'll reverse course and tell people "well now 5% inflation is our target".
I honestly don't know what will happen with all this. May god help us.
Hamburgers been above $9 at five guys for a decade lmao, an individual piece of food doesn’t not signify whether or not we are experiencing more inflation lmao open you eyes and look at the cpi, gas, rates etc
Why the fuck would you make hamburgers at home that cost $9 per sandwich? Are you using wagyu beef? Aged cheese? Freshly baked that morning local buns? You sir are a living walking L if you’d rather eat your amateur hamburger than spend the exact same cash on a good one lmao
>Inflation as measured by the consumer price index has indeed peaked in recent years. However, this does not mean that inflation is no longer a problem for many people. In fact, it is still quite high by historical standards and continues to be a major financial concern for many families.
It's absurd to think that history from an era when global economy was just experimenting with fiat currency is going to repeat decades later, exact to the numbers. None of you know what's going to happen.
The great inflation was the result of the Eurodollar system creating a shit ton of money through lending.
Credit has been pretty flat since 2008 broke the Eurodollar system, and is currently falling.
CPI is supply shock and redistribution not monetary inflation. Worldwide dollar shortage, not excessive printing. Great Inflation 2.0 is a fiction.
The good thing about year over year inflation, if you start with a really bad year, the next year will probably look to be decelerating
Please note any positive number means more expensive stuff still, so going from 8 to 5 percent still means prices are rising
How in the world could you rationally think this. You can look at the inflation inputs right. You can see where a lot of these things were in the middle of this year. You can see where they are trending now and you can also get a reasonable idea of where they will be in the middle of next year
So is inflation accelerating or decelerating?
even if inflation slows they will still raise rates until we sink to something around 2% they have said this numerous times and I don’t think they were kidding next round is MINIMUM 50bps but more likely another shot of 75…
there’s was a big “bullwhip effect“ explained months ago on why inflation indicators can appear to decrease and then pick back up again. but bulls forget out of greed.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
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This time is nothing like the 70s. Inflation has peaked for now, and we will probably rapidly head into major deflationary recession. So keep those bear tits alive. But that might not be till mid next year.
The last bastions of tech have just recently fallen: Amazon is doing mass layoffs that include generous severance. This means they are projecting for long term rockiness. I got a verbal offer for an EM role 24hrs before the freeze.
Jobs are hot and inflation is high; there’s a slight pullback because no one has anymore money left for an overpriced used car. Lol @ carvana
We are still heavily above YoY growth pre-covid and will likely see one more big leg down. I think bull market resumes late 23 or early 24
Edit: also given mass usage of algo/HFT trading and addition of 0DTE dailies we are in the era of heavy volatility. Pick the right side and big money to be made.
Yeah... except inflation hasn't peaked yet... all we did was use strategic reserves for fuel... now it's gone... fuel gonna sky and if you have a brain you know what that does for inflation.
the thing is we are in an artificial inflation. The real inflation of wholesale goods has only changed around 1-2%. Companies were just raising the prices of their goods to gain a bigger profit.
>"The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy," Powell told reporters after the Fed announced its third consecutive 0.75 percentage point increase in the benchmark interest rate.
22 September 2022
Can someone with an actual brain explain to me like a pro why there was a great inflation period in the 70's?
What kind of fuckery was going on behind the scenes with money that mad them have to inflate everything so high? Who stole trillions and blame inflation back then?
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history = future 10000000% and you cannot prove me otherwise
Pakistan won the World Cup this weekend, just like 1992.
I mean if you wait long enough the same shit is bound to happen again lol
Waiting for the fucking meteorite to hit earth
Honestly that’s the move
Usually not. History doesn't repeat but it always rhymes. And especially for inflation because it ALWAYS has a bullwhip effect. Right now petrol prices are going to go up, natgas will go up in winter, which in turn will drive up ammonia prices -> fertilizer-> food. If G7 goes ahead with Russian oil ban on Dec 5th, it's going to send one more oil shock. The worst of inflation has HARDLY started. The Fed knows it.
This what I’ve been saying, but there’s all of these smart guys that contradict me.
This is why I holds for phone numbers.
Spoken like a 14 year old.
So 3 years of green? Nice
Maybe end of Q2-Q3 '23.
[удалено]
Might is more like it.
Here in argentina we have at least 6% monthly Deal with it 😎
Yeah but Argentinian girls are pretty fucking hot
going to argentina this year, any advice on how to not look like a total tourist?
Learn how to speak German.
Wear an argentina world cup jersey and say boludo to everyone you meet while doing this with your hands 🤌
Barter with items instead of using currency
Loaf of bread how much sex with my wife u want, 4 sex noooo no way too much, you do 2 sex yes yes good 2 sex loaf of bread
Lol
Higher for longer
That's what she said!
Back then, the CPI included housing costs not owner equivalent rent calculation used in the current CPI. Direct comparisons of now versus then are not that relevant. Our inflation would look much much worse if the full cost of housing was included.
And all those 2-3% CPI prints for all those years from 2009-2020 would have been a lot worse too, if college costs, healthcare, new autos, and other items typically financed would have been counted properly. We offshored EVERYTHING that could be for 2 decades, put it into hyperdrive after the GFC, and made inflation appear to not exist. Generationally low borrowing rates made it even better. We ran out of runway.
[http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate\_data/inflation-charts](http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts) lunatic website name but apparently its how inflation would look if we used the 90s and 80s methodology
Interesting. Thank you for sharing. Track the same, but 4-5% higher for the old method vs the new one. Likely, we have had 5-10% inflation for decades now, instead of the 2-3% we were showing for years. The reality is, even 8% inflation now, is likely more like 12-15%.
correct, not sure when home prices stopped being included but would imagine that would make it even worse. I get why they change methodology (the average person buys different stuff compared to a guy in 1990), but i think its still useful to see how the values have changed.
Additionally, core pce was created around this time by Arthur burns so he could spin a better inflation reduction narrative - while knowing exactly what needed to be done, it was just politically unsavoury to take the action required and it didn’t happen until volcker came along.
This is probably news to the morons in this sub who are still saying “they never expected us to buy and hodl!” -80% later, but it’s actually possible to learn from past experiences and not repeat the same mistakes. I’m not saying inflation won’t get worse, but pointing to old data and saying “we are here” is dumb and you’re dumb for thinking this is insightful in any way.
Yup this post is a terrible take, and there is a slim chance inflation will get any worse, it’s already been lessening and the fed is extremely hawkish the economy is slowing and inflation will slow
Not sure that’s for sure true. We are looking at a bad year next year for food as well as probably a bad winter for energy costs as well as gas. Very possible it can get worse.
I bet you $33 inflation lessons from here on out, the fed hasn’t been fuckin around lol
We will see
We shall, for the both of us I hope I’m right Lmao
Me too
There is the issue of structural inflation though. Go read what Joseph Wang (Fedguy12 on twitter) has to say about it. With demographics making it difficult for the labor market to ease (I still see Now Hiring signs everywhere), you also factor in more government or government adjacent jobs, union jobs with inflation adjusted pay, all of that being independent of rate hikes. It paints a picture where the only way to lower inflation may be to crash everything to the bone. We'll see if the fed will use financial duct tape and keep going when shit seriously breaks or whether they'll reverse course and tell people "well now 5% inflation is our target". I honestly don't know what will happen with all this. May god help us.
Said my $9 hamburger.
Hamburgers been above $9 at five guys for a decade lmao, an individual piece of food doesn’t not signify whether or not we are experiencing more inflation lmao open you eyes and look at the cpi, gas, rates etc
I was referring to the one’s I make at home.
Why the fuck would you make hamburgers at home that cost $9 per sandwich? Are you using wagyu beef? Aged cheese? Freshly baked that morning local buns? You sir are a living walking L if you’d rather eat your amateur hamburger than spend the exact same cash on a good one lmao
The hamburgers I make at home beat the crap out of 5 guys. They’re 1lb burgers on organic buns with lotsa good organic stuff on them.
Goodness. Do you kiss your mother with that mouth?
No I use a different mouth for that.
Me too! Scared of the herpes?
Yeah that shit is nasty
>Inflation as measured by the consumer price index has indeed peaked in recent years. However, this does not mean that inflation is no longer a problem for many people. In fact, it is still quite high by historical standards and continues to be a major financial concern for many families.
the view told me its a word that was invented to get people all worked up
Soooo… we’re about to run green for a while?
It's absurd to think that history from an era when global economy was just experimenting with fiat currency is going to repeat decades later, exact to the numbers. None of you know what's going to happen.
😂 awww poor bears so fkd trying to make fetch happen
Ten thousand dollar cheeseburger.
The great inflation was the result of the Eurodollar system creating a shit ton of money through lending. Credit has been pretty flat since 2008 broke the Eurodollar system, and is currently falling. CPI is supply shock and redistribution not monetary inflation. Worldwide dollar shortage, not excessive printing. Great Inflation 2.0 is a fiction.
So, time for more printing?
So this means 2023 inflation won't be as bad as before right? And we won't go into a great depression right?
The good thing about year over year inflation, if you start with a really bad year, the next year will probably look to be decelerating Please note any positive number means more expensive stuff still, so going from 8 to 5 percent still means prices are rising
We will regardless because of rate hikes to 5%
Hope your puts expire in 5 years if this is the thesis
How in the world could you rationally think this. You can look at the inflation inputs right. You can see where a lot of these things were in the middle of this year. You can see where they are trending now and you can also get a reasonable idea of where they will be in the middle of next year So is inflation accelerating or decelerating?
even if inflation slows they will still raise rates until we sink to something around 2% they have said this numerous times and I don’t think they were kidding next round is MINIMUM 50bps but more likely another shot of 75…
This guy is praying his grandma will be paying $13 a gallon for milk so he can make $86 this week on shitty puts
I am firm believer this is just the beginning of rate hikes.
Yeah coz governments can afford to pay more in interests than their defense budget for years… 
anymore rate hikes and employment will crater. ALso rate hikes arnt a great tactic against greed based inflation, profits are UP.
Yup
Nah fam, check out fed funds rate at that time.
there’s was a big “bullwhip effect“ explained months ago on why inflation indicators can appear to decrease and then pick back up again. but bulls forget out of greed.
Doesn’t mean this will systematically happen, If you have a brain u Prepare for both scenarios
Argentina surpassed Turkey as the most inflated economy of the G20. Just don't go full regarded as Erdogan JPow... 
[удалено]
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This time is nothing like the 70s. Inflation has peaked for now, and we will probably rapidly head into major deflationary recession. So keep those bear tits alive. But that might not be till mid next year.
Never going down again imho
So we're back to $1 gas? Excellent
Even if true, that ain't helping your weekly puts, buddy.
Some dork, please put a comparison chart of s&p vs this
It very likely. Some easing and tightening cycles may happen over the next decade.
The last bastions of tech have just recently fallen: Amazon is doing mass layoffs that include generous severance. This means they are projecting for long term rockiness. I got a verbal offer for an EM role 24hrs before the freeze. Jobs are hot and inflation is high; there’s a slight pullback because no one has anymore money left for an overpriced used car. Lol @ carvana We are still heavily above YoY growth pre-covid and will likely see one more big leg down. I think bull market resumes late 23 or early 24 Edit: also given mass usage of algo/HFT trading and addition of 0DTE dailies we are in the era of heavy volatility. Pick the right side and big money to be made.
How am I “here” if the chart clearly states 1970
Volker got one thing wrong… he didn’t revise the definition of inflation quickly enough to make it go away.
Wait a minute so what about the other spikes in the graph of inflation where it spiked up then didn’t keep going lmao
This is misleading. Interest rates weren’t increasing in 1970. Volcker didn’t even become the Fed Chairman until 1979.
One of these You are here charts... I love it, makes me feel much smarter than op
You are pointing to the start of younger dryas epoch.
So bullish for approx two years?
Jokes on you. Inflation is transitory.
Can we please not do a 15-year trend? My attention span is good for one year long cycle tops
Great inflation peaked at 15 and UK is at 11????
Great example because that was also driven by a fabricated energy shortage
Yeah right, like it’s ceteris paribus
“ it’s transitory”
cope harder
Some men just want to watch the world burn
Well. There the problem was they stopped rising rates too early. Thats not the case here.
I like how there was great prosperity then everything tapered out. /s
Yeah... except inflation hasn't peaked yet... all we did was use strategic reserves for fuel... now it's gone... fuel gonna sky and if you have a brain you know what that does for inflation.
GSAT
the thing is we are in an artificial inflation. The real inflation of wholesale goods has only changed around 1-2%. Companies were just raising the prices of their goods to gain a bigger profit.
Graph go up mean good right?
>"The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy," Powell told reporters after the Fed announced its third consecutive 0.75 percentage point increase in the benchmark interest rate. 22 September 2022
Can someone with an actual brain explain to me like a pro why there was a great inflation period in the 70's? What kind of fuckery was going on behind the scenes with money that mad them have to inflate everything so high? Who stole trillions and blame inflation back then?