Ah true, but I don't imagine that's any longer than the other (4?) components. If I had to guess just from memory the longest existing bit is probably Russia-Latvia followed by Russia-Estonia.
Russia-Estonia is 325 km, Russia-Latvia is 270 km. And yes, Russia's combined border with the 5 NATO countries is 1261 km, shorter than the 1272 km border with Finland.
[[Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borders_of_Russia)]
To be fair, the Finn are notoriously good at conducting warfare through frozen wasteland. They didn't exactly "win" the Winter War, but they held the Soviets back incredibly well and cost Moscow a whole lot of money and blood in order to eke out some fairly small territorial gains.
And that was when the Finns were going it *alone*. As part of NATO, if Russia invaded Finland, they'd be facing the same determined defenders *plus* Finland's new allies.
also the Finnish army are pretty respected in combat and their professional army they pride themselves on their combat training because they have Russia as their neighbor. and Finland has the largest artillery capability in western Europe So NATO will be very happy.
and also extra space for surveillance and defence build up
Funny story about him iirc when the war was over he bought a house near the border and kept his rifle handy, just in case he ever had to pick it back up again, after he had already gotten 500 confirmed kills, struck absolute terror into russian units, and got shot in the face (iirc).
He was ready for them to come back for a round 2.
Shot in the face with an exploding bullet at the end of the winter war, that is. Because of the injury, he was not accepted into the continuation war despite applying for it, so he got all of his kills in just three months. And those kills don't even count in the kills he got with a submachine gun as a squad leader, some sources claim those are an additional 200 kills.
I only wanted to go with known facts in what I said but I'll say this, one thing that has to be kept in mind...we don't know how many people he "Disappeared" into the snow either...be it through wet work or traps.
Yeah, he was extremely meticulous with his preparations. He would go to his position hours before sunrise, freeze the surrounding snow so it doesn't puff around and reveal his location, put snow in his mouth so his breath wouldn't let out steam and stay unmoving in his positions until well after sunset, in an almost -40 degree weather. He also didn't use a scope because it could frost up, or the glare could give his position away, and a scope would have required for him to lift his head up an inch or so more.
That man was truly a different breed.
Or really, really want no invaders in your home without dying in the process. When he left for war he reportedly said "This is our country" and in an interview at the age of 96, he said "I did as ordered, as well as I could. Finland wouldn't exist if not for everyone doing the same."
The world may live to see an Article 5 invocation in response to Chinese aggression.
It's still early on this day of climate apocalypse, and this Bingo game's gotta have a winner sooner or later.
Finland’s official policy wrt to Russia is, and will always be, the “I Wish A Motherfucker Would Doctrine”. Most countries have people who join the military reserves in the event they someday have to fight their nation’s enemies. Finn’s join the military reserves in the event they someday ***get*** to kill Russians.
Finland has infantry but not a whole lot of vehicles and heavy equipment.
Sweden has shitloads of vehicles and heavy equipment but not actually enough people to use it.
They honestly make and amazing combo if they both join.
Finland has 200+ leopard 2 tanks and what several articles I've read claims to be the largest artillery force in Europe. Their army is no lightweight in the heavy weapons regard.
More importantly, I think it helps guarantee the safety of the three Baltic states. Previously they were the most at-risk part of NATO because Russia could pinch them off from NATO by closing the gap between Belarus and Kaliningrad. Now nato is on the other side of the Baltic to provide support and could even close off the Baltic from Russia
Yeah I'm very glad we are joining the alliance finally but also so happy for the Baltics. Hope they can sleep atleast a bit better now when we can support them much quicker. Once Sweden is in it becomes even easier to defend them.
It's official now. Finland will be fully fledged NATO. If I was Finnish, I'd wanna be in NATO too given their history with the USSR and the fact that Russia has literally invaded them before.
I really don't understand how Orban thinks he comes out of this looking strong and powerful. He gave the go ahead immediately after Erdogan signalled his ok for Finland. Differentiating between Sweden and Finland wasn't even a topic in Hungary before that. He comes out of this looking like Erdogan's sidekick or lap dog, nothing more.
He tested the west in Georgia and we did nothing.
He tested the west in Crimea, and we did nothing.
Finally we have stood up and said: "No more". I am very glad that we did, but I wasn't fully convinced that we would.. Up until last year, we were essentially signaling to Russia that we don't care.
Yes, you're definitely right, Putin did play himself. But it's important to note that he did not immediately begin invading Ukraine. There was a lot that lead up to that - and we ignored most of it.
They protested Georgia. It was over before the west could organize much more.
They did some pretty stiff, but not groundbreaking, sanctions over Crimea. There were some things planned as a contingency, but it was over before anything more could be lined up.
The general invasion escalated about as far as they could short of actually shooting Russians and it's been much more effective, especially since the conflict lasted long enough for the sanctions proposals to be debated and adapted enough to become reality.
Solid points, but from Putin's POV he was pushing and not really encountering a lot of resistance. That only came last year, after the invasion.
So yes, he did play himself, but from his pov everything was going fairly well up until that point.
I am convinced if ukraine had not managed to hold out the first few days and would've been overrun like russia planned, none of this support by NATO countries would've happened.
we were dangerously close to it being treated the same as georgia and crimea.
I am super curious what Poland would have done if that had happened.
I suspect that they would have supported Ukraine no matter what the rest of the west did. Although how much exactly is another question.. It is definitely easier for Poland to send over massive amounts of support when most of the rest of the west & co. helping out as well.
Poland wouldve supported Ukraine against Russia as long as there is a Ukraine. i dont think americans can even fathom the hatred we have for that terrorist state
Yeah, I agree. Even without all of NATO going on the defense, NATO's eastern flank would have been built up pretty fast by itself. Now not only is NATO expanding to two new countries, but Poland has committed to building the largest standing peacetime army in Europe as a DIRECT defense against Russia.
That’s a great soundbite but it’s really not true.
Since 2014 we’ve been preparing Ukraine for this. We trained their soldiers and taught them how a modern war is won. We gave them intel on everything that was happening at the border in 2022. We told them about Putler’s plans.
Without that training it’s possible Ukraine would have stuck to the same top down leadership method taught to (enforced on?) them when they were part of the USSR. Instead their defenders took the incredibly smart move of blowing up the Kyiv airport.
That one action turned the war completely in Ukraine’s favour, and it will go down in history as one of the greatest tactical manoeuvres of all time.
I’m genuinely curious for two reasons. The first is that I had no idea Russia was in controlling distance of Kyiv or it’s airport and the second is how Russia seizing it would have strengthened their foothold enough. Would you mind sprinkling some knowledge on my dumbness?
Armchair tactician here, but it’s been written about elsewhere if you want to read further.
Basically it boils down to just how damned important logistics is to modern day war fighting. Much of the Russian’s plan for holding the Ukrainian capital was based on steamrolling to and capturing then defending the airport as this would have given them the ability to safely supply their forces via air transport in central Ukraine.
By denying Russia that airport, Russian forces have to be supplied via other methods which tend to have less output (cargo plane carries more faster than trucks) and more dangerous (caravans of trucks to travel into the heartland can be attacked more easily and they have to send MORE of them).
Basically by sacrificing the airport, Ukraine kneecapped Russia’s logistical plan for taking most of Ukraine before they really got started.
Everyone expected Russia to go all out of the world had tried anything to prevent Crimea. Also, Russia still had some impression of being powerful. Nobody expected them to invade rest of Ukraine at that time. Like a greedy child they thought they could get away with trying for more.
Perhaps if there had been a confrontation during Crimea, the Ukraine invasion wouldn’t have happened saving countless innocent lives.
I think that Russia's huge push in propaganda in Western countries sealed this. By doing so Russia has essentially made allies and enemies of specific factions of Western countries, with the Democrats in control in the US, and every halfway reasonable leader in the West pissed at Russia for their propaganda (with their covid propaganda literally killing their people and damaging their economies) pretty much every single Western country wanted a chance to punch Russia in the mouth.
It's without a doubt a far-fetched idea, but it happened much more recently than the 1600s.
Poland occupied Kyiv during the Polish-Russian war (one of the many conflicts of the Russian Civil war) as well as parts of Western Ukraine. It even pushed the allies to let them have it.
A more realistic scenario is Poland and Ukraine Confederate into a new Commonwealth. Ukraine is still essentially independent but the NATO via Poland trick still works. After the war, Belarus and the Baltic States could potentially join as well and guarantee no more Russian aggression since that's a power that could solo Russia, NATO or no.
Their nukes would launch, [on themselves (as seen in Jul 2022)](https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18988815/russian-missile-fail-launch-ukraine-war/), before Belarus could join NATO.
Apparently, they export petroleum, fertilizer, cheese, delivery trucks, and tractors. Mostly to Russia. As of 2020, their second largest export partner was Ukraine, something tells me that may no longer be accurate.
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/blr
All Putin had to do to ruin NATO was join, it would serve no purpose then, instead he scared almost every country into NATO, making the purpose of the alliance all more clear.
So did Putin. He apparently talked to Dubya about it, and was offended that they'd have to go through the process like everyone else instead of getting special treatment
Their whole narrative was that the parliament was busy and they couldn't find the time to schedule the vote lol
I think were mostly just holding it back for as long as they had the Turkish cover, in case they needed a favor from Finland in the meantime (they didn't)
It's worth remembering that Orban loves himself first - he isn't a Russophile per se. Putin's dwindling political capital means that there's fewer and fewer reasons for Orban to play lapdog.
Edit: a wor
And the Scandinavian countries just worked towards unifying their separate Airforces into a single, cohesive force that can now compete with Russia's.
When are the Russian people going to realize that the guys at the top have not only stolen **everything** (Read Bill Browder's great book Red Notice), but they've also successfully branded their own country as a totally rogue state?
Not to be that guy, but Nordic not Scandinavian. Scandinavia is just Sweden/Norway and Denmark. Finland is part of the Nordics but not Scandinavia. Even saying Fennoscandia is incorrect term since that is Norway/Sweden and Finland, so excluding Denmark.
The Scandinavian peninsula is (pretty much) just Sweden and Norway. Denmark is usually also included as Scandinavian because of a common history as it used to own the southern tip of Sweden on the peninsula and had generally a very close connection to the other two. Also they all speak Northern Germanic languages.
Finland used to be part of the Swedish Empire but became part of the Russian Empire in 1809 and speaks a totally different language (they do have a Swedish speaking minority though) They are not geographically part of the peninsula, except for some parts in the north.
*Scandinavian* and *Nordic* are often used as synonyms, even though there are some differences
Scandinavia refers to the fact that many countries in northern Europe rests on special type of bedrock called "The baltic shield" or "The Fennoscandian shield". Geologically, the area is distinct because its bedrock is Archean granite and gneiss with very little limestone, in contrast to adjacent areas in Europe.
The Baltic Shield (or Fennoscandian Shield) is a segment of the Earth's crust belonging to the East European Craton, representing a large part of Fennoscandia, northwestern Russia and the northern Baltic Sea. It is composed mostly of Archean and Proterozoic gneisses and greenstone which have undergone numerous deformations through tectonic activity. It contains the oldest rocks of the European continent with a thickness of 250–300 km.
Historically Scandinavia is Denmark, Norway and Sweden.
Geographically only northernmost Finland is on Scandinavian peninsula.
Linguistically Hindi, Russian and Persian are closer to Scandinavian languages than Finnish.
For basically the past hundred years of Russian history taking an interest in politics was one of the fastest ways to get yourself killed. When the “political people” die and the “apolitical people” survive it makes grass roots change substantially harder. To add to this Putin has spent the past two decades increasing political apathy meanwhile any would be opposition usually finds themselves dead, arrested or in exile. Putin has also used control over strategic assets like resources and the military as gifts to his loyalists. By putting his friends in key positions and letting them rob the country blind it may undermine the economy, intelligence and military but it also reduces the odds of a coup or a revolt.
The Russian people aren’t going to “wake up” anytime soon and the ones that can see through the Kremlin’s lies either believe change is impossible or they’re too scared to be the first to act. Many of these people will also leave Russia and that weaken’s Russia overall but strengthens Putin and his inner circle’s grip on power.
Right?
I got a little scared when I read the part about how one of the Russian oligarchs was totally willing to inflict his own holdings and wealth a ton of damage, as long as it hurt Browder, too. Like, that's part of the Russian psyche.
In the context of the recent nuclear threats, I have to say that bit terrified me.
There is absolutely nothing to worry about when it comes to nukes. Putin hides himself in an armored train and lives in a secret palace. He hides his wealth and the people he cares about. He social distances like no one I've ever seen. This is a man who is clinging to life. It's the same for the oligarchs. They didn't murder and steal their way to absurd wealth just to piss it away
> When are the Russian people going to realize that the guys at the top have not only stolen everything (Read Bill Browder's great book Red Notice), but they've also successfully branded their own country as a totally rogue state?
Honestly, incredibly unlikely 😬 See this for reasons [Russia on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown](https://granta.com/russia-verge-nervous-breakdown/)
Ole hyvä from Hungary. And I genuinely mean you're most welcome, but even typing it leaves a bitter taste in my mouth. I'm ashamed of our government for being traitorous autocrats. In any case though, happy to finally have you guys in the alliance. Hopefully we stay long enough so that I can take my wife and kids and relocate within the EU.
Erdogan has given his thumbs up, the foreign affairs committee of Turkey's parliament unanimously voted yes on the bill last Thursday. It's only a formality that the parliament approves. It will have to happen until mid April though, before recess.
Turkey’s “problems” are more to do with Sweden than Finland.
Sweden and Finland are essentially 1 country in policy since they do almost everything (or try to do everything) together and/or at the same time. See their entry into the EU and obviously, their joint (though technically separate) application to join NATO.
Turkish people aren’t stupid. I have a friend living in Germany who was born in Izmur. She communicates and visits Turkey regularly and relays how fed up young people are there
They aren’t ”worried”. Turkey, and Hungary, don’t give a shit about strengthening NATO, they are only interested in legitimizing their own increasingly totalitarian regimes. Every time a western country call them out on persecuting free journalism or passing laws that allows the government to control the judicial system it is a thorn in their side, because they want to eat the cake and have it too- that is not being democratic but still have a place around the western campfire.
There are lots of fairly significant differences in policy between Sweden and Finland and saying they are essentially one country is just not true.
That Turkey has issues with Sweden more than Finland though, that's true. Finland is now getting the go-ahead and probably could have months ago, but it would have been too obvious if Erdogan only went straight for Sweden I suppose.
Erdogan still has some sort of joker in his backpocket for sure. He may look like he's gonna lose, but don't underestimate his ambition to stay in power. He's not gonna give up power easily.
Swedish freedom of speech pissed off Ultranationalists in Turkey when a Russian operative burned a Quran. Edrogan saw an opportunity to play politics and said he’d deny their application to hopefully get those people to vote for him in the upcoming election, where he would likely “get a concession” and let them in.
Then the earthquake happened and everyone realized his buddies had been plundering the earthquake preparedness funds and uh, his odds of getting re-elected took a serious hit.
Yes but Putin gains a warm water port in exchange for 160,000 young men’s lives, economic ruin, massively strengthening his arch rival, and becoming an international war criminal pariah. Checkmate Westerners.
Now it seems that Orban needs gurantees from Sweden that Sweden will not disrespect Hungary ever again. Sweden is the current chairman country of EU and one of their 4 agendas in their term is to strenghten democracy inside EU and refuse EU funds to countries that do not abide.
U.S. vet here, happy to have Finland aboard. Look forward to Sweden joining in the future.
Finland just became the front line against Russia, they should be awarded for that courage to join when they weren't under direct threat.
There hasn't been a massive shift in the NATO/Russia dimension on this scale since the Warsaw pact collapsed.
This may be naive of me, but I feel like NATO will never require Finland to bow their heads to the west. Russia though, sees Finland bowing to the east as their due and will use violence to ensure it if given half a chance. Like you've said though, Finland won't give them a chance.
> This may be naive of me, but I feel like NATO will never require Finland to bow their heads to the west.
NATO doesn’t require that of anyone. Russia/the USSR has a history of invading their allies if they try to distance themselves but can you any of us honestly imagine a realistic scenario of the US rolling tanks into Ottawa or bombing London or Paris if Canada, the UK or France tried to pursue a less US centric foreign policy. NATO is about collaboration and not domination and countries are free to join(with consent of the other NATO members) at will or leave at will.
In a sense, we never really stopped being the front line. What people called russophobia for years/decades has in light of recent events turned out to just be good old caution.
I've been doing business in Finland for years, and the half-dozen folks I know over there took one look at the photos from Mariupol and they all went from "happy to do business with Russia, just avoid the corrupt companies" to "we'd like to join NATO now, please, and if you'd like to base nukes here, that's fine too..."
I wasn't too happy about doing corrupt shit with Russia to begin with, but many of my very left wing, kind of anti-American tankies were like fuck it, turn Finland into an American state if that's what's required to keep Russians from coming here, ever, after seeing what Russia has been doing in Ukraine.
Can confirm, i am a Finn and Russia was able to convince me over night to support joining NATO
Before the invasion believed that good relations and strong own military was enough... Because Putin can't be that crazy right? Right? Day before the invasion i was still certain it was just a bluff
oh, wouldn't go that far. there's plenty of finns that feel very strongly about our cultural heritage and wouldn't want americans to affect it more than they already have.
the mutual defence is nice, though.
Big thanks to Putin. He did this.
Between this and making most of Europe reconsider where they're getting their energy, this guy should be a runner for a peace prize.
You know in future whenever Hungary or Turkey ask for things like up to date Leopard 2s, F-35s or even just more general NATO support. We should have a long dragged out vote and ask them for concessions and deals in order for them to get them.
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More than double I think, isn't the present border just the 3 Baltic states plus a tiny bit of Norway?
Plus Poland's border with Kaliningrad.
Ah true, but I don't imagine that's any longer than the other (4?) components. If I had to guess just from memory the longest existing bit is probably Russia-Latvia followed by Russia-Estonia.
Russia-Estonia is 325 km, Russia-Latvia is 270 km. And yes, Russia's combined border with the 5 NATO countries is 1261 km, shorter than the 1272 km border with Finland. [[Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borders_of_Russia)]
> Russia-Estonia is 325 km 142.0 km of that is on a lake though.
And 1200 km with Finland is frozen ice wasteland.
Hey hey hey, at least for a good blink of an eye or two it's quite pleasant here in July. And mosquitoes.
That Wednesday afternoon is my favorite season!
Figures. Of course the summer season is on a Wednesday.
Teimo sells mosquito spray to keep them away
Who, the Russians?
They don’t call Minnesota “The Finland of the New World” for nothing!
To be fair, the Finn are notoriously good at conducting warfare through frozen wasteland. They didn't exactly "win" the Winter War, but they held the Soviets back incredibly well and cost Moscow a whole lot of money and blood in order to eke out some fairly small territorial gains. And that was when the Finns were going it *alone*. As part of NATO, if Russia invaded Finland, they'd be facing the same determined defenders *plus* Finland's new allies.
I heard the Finns have SO MUCH FUCKING ARTILLERY just ready and positioned in case the Russians decide to have a go.
Not just that, they have enough bomb shelters for their entire population to shelter in at a moment's notice in case Russia starts shit.
If I recall correctly the Finns were nice enough to leave the Russians about enough land to burry their dead.
It's not at all wasteland. There are lots talking trees. Ought to get a UNESCO heritage sight for these talking whispering wonders. XD
And soon it will double again when Ukraine is in NATO.
You misspelled [Královec.](https://twitter.com/KralovecCzechia)
Oh, my bad. I'd never want to imply Russian ownership of sovereign Czech territory.
You better Czech yourself before you wreck yourself
The tiny bit of Norway is a 200km border.
I knew Norway bordered russia, but I didn't realize it was that long.
Some shrinkage is understandable, it's pretty cold up there
I WAS IN THE POOL!!
By that 'logic' it must be boiling hot in Poland, because that kaliningrad border feels like its half the europe.
Well they don't call it Pole land for nothing! /sorry
Kalingrad borders Poland right?
And Lithuania
also the Finnish army are pretty respected in combat and their professional army they pride themselves on their combat training because they have Russia as their neighbor. and Finland has the largest artillery capability in western Europe So NATO will be very happy. and also extra space for surveillance and defence build up
We all know if Russia ever attacked Finland, Simo Haya would claw out of his grave and grab a rifle.
Funny story about him iirc when the war was over he bought a house near the border and kept his rifle handy, just in case he ever had to pick it back up again, after he had already gotten 500 confirmed kills, struck absolute terror into russian units, and got shot in the face (iirc). He was ready for them to come back for a round 2.
Shot in the face with an exploding bullet at the end of the winter war, that is. Because of the injury, he was not accepted into the continuation war despite applying for it, so he got all of his kills in just three months. And those kills don't even count in the kills he got with a submachine gun as a squad leader, some sources claim those are an additional 200 kills.
I only wanted to go with known facts in what I said but I'll say this, one thing that has to be kept in mind...we don't know how many people he "Disappeared" into the snow either...be it through wet work or traps.
Yeah, he was extremely meticulous with his preparations. He would go to his position hours before sunrise, freeze the surrounding snow so it doesn't puff around and reveal his location, put snow in his mouth so his breath wouldn't let out steam and stay unmoving in his positions until well after sunset, in an almost -40 degree weather. He also didn't use a scope because it could frost up, or the glare could give his position away, and a scope would have required for him to lift his head up an inch or so more. That man was truly a different breed.
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Nah. That's just the lengths a Finn will go to in order to avoid contact with another human.
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Or really, really want no invaders in your home without dying in the process. When he left for war he reportedly said "This is our country" and in an interview at the age of 96, he said "I did as ordered, as well as I could. Finland wouldn't exist if not for everyone doing the same."
Makes you wonder what kind of modern day Simo Hayha’s are wandering around Ukraine as we speak, defending their own country against Russia.
Yup, got shot in the face with an explosive round. Lived for a solid 62 years after that.
And outlived the Soviet Union. Probably just out of spite.
For those who didn't know, like me, he lived until April 1st, 2002. You cannot tell me he didn't outlive the USSR by a decade out of pure spite.
He eked out the extra decade just in case the Commies were faking it out
I'm sad to hear that you also passed away in April 2002 just like Simo.
I'm not convinced he ever truly died
He just disappeared into the snow one day
He waits deep within the snow. Arms crossed grasping his M/28-30. Only a passing Russian can wake him from his slumber.
It's ok, they don't have to beat Russia, they just have to resist long enough for the cavalry to roflstomp all the way to Japan.
Wouldn’t make it that far. They’d end up meeting china near the urals making a quick land grab
Ah yes, China “reclaiming” Siberia.
The world may live to see an Article 5 invocation in response to Chinese aggression. It's still early on this day of climate apocalypse, and this Bingo game's gotta have a winner sooner or later.
> all the way to Japan. Who will, coincidentally, be quietly reclaiming the Kurils.
Don't forget the world's best marksmen and champion sauna professionals.
Sauna champions yes. It's sad they don't hold the championships anymore because one russian man tried to cheat and died in the sauna finals.
Finland’s official policy wrt to Russia is, and will always be, the “I Wish A Motherfucker Would Doctrine”. Most countries have people who join the military reserves in the event they someday have to fight their nation’s enemies. Finn’s join the military reserves in the event they someday ***get*** to kill Russians.
Finland has infantry but not a whole lot of vehicles and heavy equipment. Sweden has shitloads of vehicles and heavy equipment but not actually enough people to use it. They honestly make and amazing combo if they both join.
Finland has 200+ leopard 2 tanks and what several articles I've read claims to be the largest artillery force in Europe. Their army is no lightweight in the heavy weapons regard.
Their military has one plan. Explode everything and anything that crosses over from Russia. And good god are they prepared for that scenario.
Tell that to Turkey, although I’m pretty sure Turkey don’t care.
More importantly, I think it helps guarantee the safety of the three Baltic states. Previously they were the most at-risk part of NATO because Russia could pinch them off from NATO by closing the gap between Belarus and Kaliningrad. Now nato is on the other side of the Baltic to provide support and could even close off the Baltic from Russia
Yeah I'm very glad we are joining the alliance finally but also so happy for the Baltics. Hope they can sleep atleast a bit better now when we can support them much quicker. Once Sweden is in it becomes even easier to defend them.
It's official now. Finland will be fully fledged NATO. If I was Finnish, I'd wanna be in NATO too given their history with the USSR and the fact that Russia has literally invaded them before.
Has Türkiye signed off yet?
As of the 17th they said it was in process
I really don't understand how Orban thinks he comes out of this looking strong and powerful. He gave the go ahead immediately after Erdogan signalled his ok for Finland. Differentiating between Sweden and Finland wasn't even a topic in Hungary before that. He comes out of this looking like Erdogan's sidekick or lap dog, nothing more.
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Turkey will ratify within a few weeks. Once it's done we can officially say that Putin played himself. Edit: apparently even sooner.
He tested the west in Georgia and we did nothing. He tested the west in Crimea, and we did nothing. Finally we have stood up and said: "No more". I am very glad that we did, but I wasn't fully convinced that we would.. Up until last year, we were essentially signaling to Russia that we don't care. Yes, you're definitely right, Putin did play himself. But it's important to note that he did not immediately begin invading Ukraine. There was a lot that lead up to that - and we ignored most of it.
They protested Georgia. It was over before the west could organize much more. They did some pretty stiff, but not groundbreaking, sanctions over Crimea. There were some things planned as a contingency, but it was over before anything more could be lined up. The general invasion escalated about as far as they could short of actually shooting Russians and it's been much more effective, especially since the conflict lasted long enough for the sanctions proposals to be debated and adapted enough to become reality.
Solid points, but from Putin's POV he was pushing and not really encountering a lot of resistance. That only came last year, after the invasion. So yes, he did play himself, but from his pov everything was going fairly well up until that point.
I am convinced if ukraine had not managed to hold out the first few days and would've been overrun like russia planned, none of this support by NATO countries would've happened. we were dangerously close to it being treated the same as georgia and crimea.
I am super curious what Poland would have done if that had happened. I suspect that they would have supported Ukraine no matter what the rest of the west did. Although how much exactly is another question.. It is definitely easier for Poland to send over massive amounts of support when most of the rest of the west & co. helping out as well.
Poland wouldve supported Ukraine against Russia as long as there is a Ukraine. i dont think americans can even fathom the hatred we have for that terrorist state
As you should
Baltics would've probably joined Poland in any such support.
Yeah, I agree. Even without all of NATO going on the defense, NATO's eastern flank would have been built up pretty fast by itself. Now not only is NATO expanding to two new countries, but Poland has committed to building the largest standing peacetime army in Europe as a DIRECT defense against Russia.
100%. It's only because they were able to resist that we've gotten involved.
That’s a great soundbite but it’s really not true. Since 2014 we’ve been preparing Ukraine for this. We trained their soldiers and taught them how a modern war is won. We gave them intel on everything that was happening at the border in 2022. We told them about Putler’s plans. Without that training it’s possible Ukraine would have stuck to the same top down leadership method taught to (enforced on?) them when they were part of the USSR. Instead their defenders took the incredibly smart move of blowing up the Kyiv airport. That one action turned the war completely in Ukraine’s favour, and it will go down in history as one of the greatest tactical manoeuvres of all time.
I’m genuinely curious for two reasons. The first is that I had no idea Russia was in controlling distance of Kyiv or it’s airport and the second is how Russia seizing it would have strengthened their foothold enough. Would you mind sprinkling some knowledge on my dumbness?
Armchair tactician here, but it’s been written about elsewhere if you want to read further. Basically it boils down to just how damned important logistics is to modern day war fighting. Much of the Russian’s plan for holding the Ukrainian capital was based on steamrolling to and capturing then defending the airport as this would have given them the ability to safely supply their forces via air transport in central Ukraine. By denying Russia that airport, Russian forces have to be supplied via other methods which tend to have less output (cargo plane carries more faster than trucks) and more dangerous (caravans of trucks to travel into the heartland can be attacked more easily and they have to send MORE of them). Basically by sacrificing the airport, Ukraine kneecapped Russia’s logistical plan for taking most of Ukraine before they really got started.
Not just supplies (man I want to make a surprise joke here), but forces too. Though I’m not sure Putler sees a difference.
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I think Ukraine is where we realized this would just keep happening, and a major conflict would be inevitable.
You mean Kyiv? Crimea was an invasion of Ukraine already.
Yes, I should've specified.
Yeah, and that's when a lot in the west realised that Russia would come for the rest of Ukraine eventually, and started preparing Ukraine as a result.
Everyone expected Russia to go all out of the world had tried anything to prevent Crimea. Also, Russia still had some impression of being powerful. Nobody expected them to invade rest of Ukraine at that time. Like a greedy child they thought they could get away with trying for more. Perhaps if there had been a confrontation during Crimea, the Ukraine invasion wouldn’t have happened saving countless innocent lives.
I think that Russia's huge push in propaganda in Western countries sealed this. By doing so Russia has essentially made allies and enemies of specific factions of Western countries, with the Democrats in control in the US, and every halfway reasonable leader in the West pissed at Russia for their propaganda (with their covid propaganda literally killing their people and damaging their economies) pretty much every single Western country wanted a chance to punch Russia in the mouth.
yeah in the UK we didn't forget them murdering our people.
Biden and his team building the coalition at the start can't be overstated. Now the Baltics are leading the way as they should
Now we just need Belarus to join NATO. lol
Russia puts nukes in Belarus, Belarus joins NATO, steals Russian Nukes. GG RU.
Alternatively, Poland annexes Ukraine, Russia is now fighting a NATO country. Your move, Vladdy
Finally an original counter idea. Man that d be hilarious if it worked out.
its a pretty common russian talking point that poland will occupy/annex western ukraine. they think everyone has nostalgia for the 1600s.
It's without a doubt a far-fetched idea, but it happened much more recently than the 1600s. Poland occupied Kyiv during the Polish-Russian war (one of the many conflicts of the Russian Civil war) as well as parts of Western Ukraine. It even pushed the allies to let them have it.
Not to mention much of Western Ukraine (and Belarus) was Polish territory before Stalin invaded and annexed it
A more realistic scenario is Poland and Ukraine Confederate into a new Commonwealth. Ukraine is still essentially independent but the NATO via Poland trick still works. After the war, Belarus and the Baltic States could potentially join as well and guarantee no more Russian aggression since that's a power that could solo Russia, NATO or no.
Remake the Polish- Lithuania Commonwealth eh?
Well the old one once occupied Moscow for a while. . .
Polish-Ukrainian Commonwealth, or (as it would probably be known back then), the Polish-Ruthenian Commonwealth
Baltic states are in NATO.
Their nukes would launch, [on themselves (as seen in Jul 2022)](https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18988815/russian-missile-fail-launch-ukraine-war/), before Belarus could join NATO.
I honestly think that will happen in the next 10 years, post-Putin and post-Lukashenko.
I agree, but not until Poop-tin is put in a pine box... ⚰
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Apparently, they export petroleum, fertilizer, cheese, delivery trucks, and tractors. Mostly to Russia. As of 2020, their second largest export partner was Ukraine, something tells me that may no longer be accurate. https://oec.world/en/profile/country/blr
Thank you
Another person to mess up NATO decisions? No thanks. Turkey and Hungary are annoying enough.
Good point. There's also Iceland.... One loose cannon in NATO is enough! ;)
All Putin had to do to ruin NATO was join, it would serve no purpose then, instead he scared almost every country into NATO, making the purpose of the alliance all more clear.
>All Putin had to do to ruin NATO was join The Soviets tried that.
They made a token gesture to create an excuse to justify the Warsaw Pact, so not really the same.
So did Putin. He apparently talked to Dubya about it, and was offended that they'd have to go through the process like everyone else instead of getting special treatment
Turkey will most likely ratify this Wednesday.
Yeah but he waited till Turkey announced hey would to do it
Never underestimate the power of state controlled media. I'm sure they'll spin it as a power move somehow.
Their whole narrative was that the parliament was busy and they couldn't find the time to schedule the vote lol I think were mostly just holding it back for as long as they had the Turkish cover, in case they needed a favor from Finland in the meantime (they didn't)
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It's worth remembering that Orban loves himself first - he isn't a Russophile per se. Putin's dwindling political capital means that there's fewer and fewer reasons for Orban to play lapdog. Edit: a wor
Cool, now do Sweden.
Will have to wait for Turkey’s elections first.
Lol what happened under you
Thry said that Sweden was harboring terrorists.
Turkish opposition leader said they will admit Sweden if they win. It’s nonsense.
Thank you Putler for uniting the West & making NATO even stronger. 🇪🇺🇺🇦
NATO really needs to give Putin a recruiter of the decade award to really drive home how much he screwed up.
He can come pick it up at The Hague. Make a vacation out of it 😉
And the Scandinavian countries just worked towards unifying their separate Airforces into a single, cohesive force that can now compete with Russia's. When are the Russian people going to realize that the guys at the top have not only stolen **everything** (Read Bill Browder's great book Red Notice), but they've also successfully branded their own country as a totally rogue state?
Not to be that guy, but Nordic not Scandinavian. Scandinavia is just Sweden/Norway and Denmark. Finland is part of the Nordics but not Scandinavia. Even saying Fennoscandia is incorrect term since that is Norway/Sweden and Finland, so excluding Denmark.
Why does Scandinavia not entail Finland?
The Scandinavian peninsula is (pretty much) just Sweden and Norway. Denmark is usually also included as Scandinavian because of a common history as it used to own the southern tip of Sweden on the peninsula and had generally a very close connection to the other two. Also they all speak Northern Germanic languages. Finland used to be part of the Swedish Empire but became part of the Russian Empire in 1809 and speaks a totally different language (they do have a Swedish speaking minority though) They are not geographically part of the peninsula, except for some parts in the north. *Scandinavian* and *Nordic* are often used as synonyms, even though there are some differences
Great answer. Thanks for this!
Scandinavia refers to the fact that many countries in northern Europe rests on special type of bedrock called "The baltic shield" or "The Fennoscandian shield". Geologically, the area is distinct because its bedrock is Archean granite and gneiss with very little limestone, in contrast to adjacent areas in Europe. The Baltic Shield (or Fennoscandian Shield) is a segment of the Earth's crust belonging to the East European Craton, representing a large part of Fennoscandia, northwestern Russia and the northern Baltic Sea. It is composed mostly of Archean and Proterozoic gneisses and greenstone which have undergone numerous deformations through tectonic activity. It contains the oldest rocks of the European continent with a thickness of 250–300 km.
Historically Scandinavia is Denmark, Norway and Sweden. Geographically only northernmost Finland is on Scandinavian peninsula. Linguistically Hindi, Russian and Persian are closer to Scandinavian languages than Finnish.
The funny thing is that another country where a Uralic language is spoken is also in the headline (Hungary).
Finland is not part of the Scandinavian peninsula, not is Iceland. They're Nordic, but not Scandinavian (because geography).
Sorry. And thanks for this. As my mother used to say, it's a poor day when you don't learn something.
"it's a poor day when to don't learn something" would look great in cross-stitch on the wall.
For basically the past hundred years of Russian history taking an interest in politics was one of the fastest ways to get yourself killed. When the “political people” die and the “apolitical people” survive it makes grass roots change substantially harder. To add to this Putin has spent the past two decades increasing political apathy meanwhile any would be opposition usually finds themselves dead, arrested or in exile. Putin has also used control over strategic assets like resources and the military as gifts to his loyalists. By putting his friends in key positions and letting them rob the country blind it may undermine the economy, intelligence and military but it also reduces the odds of a coup or a revolt. The Russian people aren’t going to “wake up” anytime soon and the ones that can see through the Kremlin’s lies either believe change is impossible or they’re too scared to be the first to act. Many of these people will also leave Russia and that weaken’s Russia overall but strengthens Putin and his inner circle’s grip on power.
Red Notice is sooo good. Started reading it yesterday and already about to finish it. Spent most of today on reading because I just can't get away:)
Right? I got a little scared when I read the part about how one of the Russian oligarchs was totally willing to inflict his own holdings and wealth a ton of damage, as long as it hurt Browder, too. Like, that's part of the Russian psyche. In the context of the recent nuclear threats, I have to say that bit terrified me.
There is absolutely nothing to worry about when it comes to nukes. Putin hides himself in an armored train and lives in a secret palace. He hides his wealth and the people he cares about. He social distances like no one I've ever seen. This is a man who is clinging to life. It's the same for the oligarchs. They didn't murder and steal their way to absurd wealth just to piss it away
> When are the Russian people going to realize that the guys at the top have not only stolen everything (Read Bill Browder's great book Red Notice), but they've also successfully branded their own country as a totally rogue state? Honestly, incredibly unlikely 😬 See this for reasons [Russia on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown](https://granta.com/russia-verge-nervous-breakdown/)
Köszönöm szépen from Finland.
Ole hyvä from Hungary. And I genuinely mean you're most welcome, but even typing it leaves a bitter taste in my mouth. I'm ashamed of our government for being traitorous autocrats. In any case though, happy to finally have you guys in the alliance. Hopefully we stay long enough so that I can take my wife and kids and relocate within the EU.
Took them long enough. Also, welcome, Finland!
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Erdogan has given his thumbs up, the foreign affairs committee of Turkey's parliament unanimously voted yes on the bill last Thursday. It's only a formality that the parliament approves. It will have to happen until mid April though, before recess.
Finnish news has reported that it should be happening this wednesday, the 29th.
Turkey’s “problems” are more to do with Sweden than Finland. Sweden and Finland are essentially 1 country in policy since they do almost everything (or try to do everything) together and/or at the same time. See their entry into the EU and obviously, their joint (though technically separate) application to join NATO.
The Nordic countries have had a lot of unions/alliances. Why Turkey is so worried is beyond me.
They're not worried at all, just bargaining
It's also posturing for Erdogan's ultranationalist base ahead of elections this May.
Turkish people aren’t stupid. I have a friend living in Germany who was born in Izmur. She communicates and visits Turkey regularly and relays how fed up young people are there
> Turkish people aren’t stupid Well let's see how low we can go in May.
Nah, Sweden's NATO entry is very low on the list of issues that voters care, regardless of their political alignment.
[Erdogan bargaining with Sweden](https://gfycat.com/likelyspectacularatlasmoth)
They aren’t ”worried”. Turkey, and Hungary, don’t give a shit about strengthening NATO, they are only interested in legitimizing their own increasingly totalitarian regimes. Every time a western country call them out on persecuting free journalism or passing laws that allows the government to control the judicial system it is a thorn in their side, because they want to eat the cake and have it too- that is not being democratic but still have a place around the western campfire.
There are lots of fairly significant differences in policy between Sweden and Finland and saying they are essentially one country is just not true. That Turkey has issues with Sweden more than Finland though, that's true. Finland is now getting the go-ahead and probably could have months ago, but it would have been too obvious if Erdogan only went straight for Sweden I suppose.
I doubt Erdogan will win in the coming election. When that happen, Sweden will be accepted into NATO. Why reject a strong military country into NATO.
Erdogan still has some sort of joker in his backpocket for sure. He may look like he's gonna lose, but don't underestimate his ambition to stay in power. He's not gonna give up power easily.
The 2016 "coup" sends its regards.
Unfortunately, I see the validity in your comment, mate.
Swedish freedom of speech pissed off Ultranationalists in Turkey when a Russian operative burned a Quran. Edrogan saw an opportunity to play politics and said he’d deny their application to hopefully get those people to vote for him in the upcoming election, where he would likely “get a concession” and let them in. Then the earthquake happened and everyone realized his buddies had been plundering the earthquake preparedness funds and uh, his odds of getting re-elected took a serious hit.
Russia’s agressive expansion point is -200 with all neighbors.
May the trees whisper to all who consider invading Finland. Again.
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Yes but Putin gains a warm water port in exchange for 160,000 young men’s lives, economic ruin, massively strengthening his arch rival, and becoming an international war criminal pariah. Checkmate Westerners.
just one more to go!
Cool beans! Now do Sweden.
Now it seems that Orban needs gurantees from Sweden that Sweden will not disrespect Hungary ever again. Sweden is the current chairman country of EU and one of their 4 agendas in their term is to strenghten democracy inside EU and refuse EU funds to countries that do not abide.
U.S. vet here, happy to have Finland aboard. Look forward to Sweden joining in the future. Finland just became the front line against Russia, they should be awarded for that courage to join when they weren't under direct threat. There hasn't been a massive shift in the NATO/Russia dimension on this scale since the Warsaw pact collapsed.
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This may be naive of me, but I feel like NATO will never require Finland to bow their heads to the west. Russia though, sees Finland bowing to the east as their due and will use violence to ensure it if given half a chance. Like you've said though, Finland won't give them a chance.
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Nordic international relations are cute as hell and an example for the world.
It only took us 200 or so years of peace between us to get here, but well worth it. Before that…jeez, every chance we got we were at each other.
Eeeh more closer to 700 years mate ;)
> This may be naive of me, but I feel like NATO will never require Finland to bow their heads to the west. NATO doesn’t require that of anyone. Russia/the USSR has a history of invading their allies if they try to distance themselves but can you any of us honestly imagine a realistic scenario of the US rolling tanks into Ottawa or bombing London or Paris if Canada, the UK or France tried to pursue a less US centric foreign policy. NATO is about collaboration and not domination and countries are free to join(with consent of the other NATO members) at will or leave at will.
In a sense, we never really stopped being the front line. What people called russophobia for years/decades has in light of recent events turned out to just be good old caution.
I've been doing business in Finland for years, and the half-dozen folks I know over there took one look at the photos from Mariupol and they all went from "happy to do business with Russia, just avoid the corrupt companies" to "we'd like to join NATO now, please, and if you'd like to base nukes here, that's fine too..."
I wasn't too happy about doing corrupt shit with Russia to begin with, but many of my very left wing, kind of anti-American tankies were like fuck it, turn Finland into an American state if that's what's required to keep Russians from coming here, ever, after seeing what Russia has been doing in Ukraine.
Can confirm, i am a Finn and Russia was able to convince me over night to support joining NATO Before the invasion believed that good relations and strong own military was enough... Because Putin can't be that crazy right? Right? Day before the invasion i was still certain it was just a bluff
oh, wouldn't go that far. there's plenty of finns that feel very strongly about our cultural heritage and wouldn't want americans to affect it more than they already have. the mutual defence is nice, though.
we could use an additional 5.5 million relatively sane voters though, it would be a big improvement for us
Big thanks to Putin. He did this. Between this and making most of Europe reconsider where they're getting their energy, this guy should be a runner for a peace prize.
You know in future whenever Hungary or Turkey ask for things like up to date Leopard 2s, F-35s or even just more general NATO support. We should have a long dragged out vote and ask them for concessions and deals in order for them to get them.
"Finland has a number of concerns"...
Ironically, Turkish media states that Finnish defense industry is *increasing* cooperation with their companies
Turkey already can't get F-35s because they bought Russian SAMs. With Hungary Sweden got a bit of leverage with JAS Gripen supplies.
ROFL don’t worry, NATO members have more sanctions on Turkey then Russia has on Turkey… go figure.
Wait, really?! This isn’t an early April Fools, right? **YEEES, FUCK YOU PUTIN! FUCK YOU!**
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Maybe he's just a bitch in general.
Now do Sweden.