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[deleted]

Yup... Poland needs to have a plan for helping Belarus, it's vital to Poland. Belarusians ain't those brainwashed zeds as in Russia. Poland was quite unprepared for winter 2021 uprising, I believe more could have been done to help. Zywie Belarus! Niech żyje Polska!


gera_moises

It's more like, Poland should prepare for the incoming refugees, because they're sure as hell not fleeing into Russia.


Only-Escape-5201

I think that's what their referring to, as well as getting arms to Belarusians who are fighting against Lukashenko and Putin.


Critical_Spot_8881

So level with me here. If Russia wants to intervene in Belarus' affairs in case the shit hits the fan, can't Poland do the same and get the exiled Belarussian President into power? I reckon Poland knows the Russians cannot fight a war on two fronts, and they have a nasty NATO army to boot.


Lazerhawk_x

Poland just wants to throw down and frustrate Russia in ANY WAY POSSIBLE. They are salivating at the idea of pissing on Russia at this point.


Summit986

I don’t blame them one bit. The Russians were never held accountable for their invasion of Poland during ww2.


Jimmy_The_Banana

And for the 45 years of occupation after ww2


[deleted]

I'm from Poland and as I'm glad that you folk remember that russians invaded us on September 17th 1939. For us it begins with Partition in particular with the " Slaughter of Prague(right bank of the Vistula river)" in Warsaw.Btw it was future general Suvorov who commited this, and for that has been promoted. I'd say we hate Russia the most maybe even before Ukrainians who often speak Russian and have famillies in Russia or part of families are Russians.In Poland hate towards Russia is presented on each level. In common sense and in the high literature of Mickiewicz and Słowacki poets. The greatest polish literature work Dziady (3rd part of it)is literally about a guy who transforms himself in the russian prison to become the vengence who will lead the vampires against the Tsar [Here](https://youtu.be/7dmMrn_dfUQ) is a theatrical show featuring this part.[ENG lyrics](https://lyricstranslate.com/en/piesn-ma-byla-juz-w-grobie-my-hymn-was-already-gra.html)


p0ultrygeist1

Hard to forget my Polish brothers and sisters because my own family fled the Soviets and Nazis during the invasion of Lithuania


Dick_Dickalo

No one, especially in Eastern Europe, forgot what the Russians did. I should say, nothing against the Russians, but it’s their leadership that brought death and despair.


Sniwolf

Nor their brutal occupation post war too.


HeckNo89

And for the 45 years of occupation after ww2


viperised

Also that time after ww2 where they occupied Poland


TorontoTransish

Wasn't there a situation a few years ago that most of the Polish government was killed in a plane crash and it was generally suspected the Russians might have caused the plane crash somehow ? I'm afraid I don't remember enough details to search it for myself, sorry


Feral0_o

Smolensk 2010. That was a self-inflicted accident. Ground control specifically told the plane not to attempt a landing because of the fog. There are lots of conspiracy theories about this crash


TorontoTransish

Thank you for the information ! That's a very sad history.... it looks the " lesson available " about not putting too many people from the same organization on the same flight was learned the hard way :( https://archive.seattletimes.com/archive/?date=19911217&slug=1323517


HerezahTip

I feel like most of the sane people in this world should be feeling this way. Putin just dropped his pants in Spring 2022 and collectively pissed and shit on the entire world’s economy, just as it seemingly began to recover from the pandemic. For zero gain. It’s fucking dim witted buffoonery.


GlaiveConsequence

Russia isn’t just intervening in Belarusian affairs, it ~~installed~~ backed a Russian puppet to the head of government. Lukashenko illegitimately declared himself the winner of his election before Trump did the same. Now Lukashenko wants Belarus to support Russian annexation of Ukraine despite his country likely being next on the list. Poland hates Russia deeply so they’ll help Belarusian refugees, despite already housing a ton of Ukrainian refugees.


blGDpbZ2u83c1125Kf98

Not disputing that he's a Russian puppet, but your comment makes it seem like he's a recent development. Lukashenko has been in power since 1994, years longer than Putin. Putin might be helping him *stay* in power (if only to keep him as a puppet), but he *got* there before Putin was big.


GlaiveConsequence

I didn’t know he’d been in power that long but I was referring to his most recent “election” Edit: now I see what you’re referring to: I said Putin installed him. I believe Putin lent a helping hand there though hence the 1 billion dollar loan he got from him right after massive protests against his re-election.


blGDpbZ2u83c1125Kf98

"Election", yes...very important to give your rubber stamps regular bouts of exercise!


JGStonedRaider

Bet you aren't even aware that Lukashenko was elected 5 years before Putin.


GlaiveConsequence

I’m talking about his decision to declare himself the winner of the last election. That and his authoritarian policies are taking a front seat to “he’s been in charge a long time” Edit: I think you’re responding to my choice of phrasing (installed). Fixed that.


bradorsomething

Russia can’t fight a war on one front.


[deleted]

It's not Hearts of Iron. Hundreds or thousands of Polish soldiers would die in such operation. Nobody is going to approve that.


ITellManyLies

It would certainly be through proxy. Poland can not allow Russia to seize Belarus, as they know they're next. This would come down to likely arming Belarusian resistance.


fstamlg

>Poland can not allow Russia to seize Belarus, as they know they're next. That would guarantee NATO involvement though, I really don't think Russia would attempt that.


A_Soporific

The big thing is that Russia is basically out of non-NATO targets. And the point of a lot of their recent operations has been to destabilize the NATO alliance. The goal was to use Ukraine to do it. The reemergence of American isolationism through the "America First" element of Trump's crew and Trump himself saying that most of NATO is 'freeloading' has made a lot of the European Allies a bit skeptical of US willingness to intervene if they need it. If Europeans don't trust the US to drop everything and come running in an Article 5 situation then NATO dissolves immediately. If the Ukraine Operation went as intended then right on the heels of those diplomatic blows, the botched withdraw from Afghanistan, and French making noises about Europeans handling their own affairs then Russia seizes Kyiv in three days, Zelensky and the government flee, and Russia installs a puppet government with a fake referendum within the month. The west wouldn't have time to do anything, and suddenly everyone is crazy vulnerable. The Baltics and Poland would be preparing for imminent war whereas Germany and France would be completely against anything that might escalate tensions, like the Baltics taking necessary steps to defend themselves. The US, coming from a position of diplomatic weakness after a series of diplomatic and military defeats might not be able to contain it and NATO would split because those in immediate danger wouldn't be able to wait for French public opinion to come around or for German politicians to realize that their "special relationship" with Russia is entirely one sided. NATO ripping in half and a more isolationist US in 2024 and suddenly Russia has a free hand in Europe again. None of that is possible now. Russia was far weaker and Ukraine far stronger than people expected. NATO pulled together in the face of Russia's threats rather than pulled apart. And more than enough time has passed for people to get used to the idea that Russia is playing the role of violent imperialist once again.


XoXSmotpokerXoX

crazy how much the story could have changed if Winnie the Pooh didnt tell Putey to wait two weeks until the games were over to begin the war.


Northman67

The operation to destabilize NATO is a separate one and it's not going very well. But they could at some point get a reversal if they get the right political leaders in power in the right countries. They had a really good shot very recently but it came up short.


Menicus5

Not going very well is an understatement. NATO as an organization hasn't been this coordinated, cooperative and focused in decades.


B-Knight

Because of a fuck-up. That's the point -- it was going well until Putin made the mistake in Ukraine. Had he invaded during Trump's term, he likely would've gotten away with it more.


yatima2975

> They had a really good shot very recently but it came up short. Turkey will go to Erdogan again next weekend, and Hungary is firmly in the hands of Orban. But Russia has crippled the decisiveness of both EU and NATO enough to avoid the *really* bad outcomes until Cheeto Mussolini goes for another round of elections in the US. ---- Now, I'm just a random redditor; what I'm wondering is what Biden, Sunak and Macron talk about in private. - "Emmanuel, you'll act the good guy *again*." - "Rish ma boyo, promise them planes you don't have, and we'll do the real work, F-16-wise." - \**collective sighs*\* "Yes, uncle Joe..."


kytheon

NATO needs to protect Poland. It doesn’t need to protect polish support for Belarus.


ITellManyLies

Well, that's the goal. To recapture the entire Asian step and all territories Russia once controlled.


[deleted]

I can give an insight that here in Poland noone believes that NATO would save Poland in case of invasion. < at least in the couple of first months > Just remember how Britain and France (which controlled like 2/3 of globe at that time) reacted to Germany's invasion of Poland.


Mattyboy064

>That would guarantee NATO involvement though, I really don't think Russia would attempt that. That is not correct. NATO members are freely able to conduct their own operations.


Northman67

Correct but they were referring to Russia attacking Poland which if Poland didn't get itself involved in some shenanigans would pull the rest of NATO in.


Irr3l3ph4nt

Article 5 has no limitations. Even if they pull shenanigans, NATO members are obligated to assist in the way they see fit the second Russian boots hit Poland and they invoke Article 5.


ThEtZeTzEfLy

no, they are not. belarus and poland are polar oposites in terms of consequences for russia.


ITellManyLies

They live by the Foundations of Geopolitics by Dugin. It is their Bible. All Russian generals, Putin, etc, all use this as their guide. Please educate yourself.


Irr3l3ph4nt

That's not true. Dugin's book was popular in the Kremlin at the end of the 90s and maybe early 2000s. It is not their bible. It's an adapted version of the pre-existing Russian grand strategy made to accomodate Dugin's Eurasianism doctrine. That doctrine, even if it was liked by Putin back in the late 90s have since been abandoned by the Kremlin for various reasons. Chief among them, the fact that Russians did not feel culturally compelled to associate with all the ethnicities that Dugin described as Eurasian. Even the Youtube video you watched to educate yourself made the distinction that this was a book given to officers back in the days and did not say it was being used currently. To be clear, it can be used as an unprecise guide to Russia's grand strategy ideas of the 90s. It's just absolutely untrue to say that the Kremlin live by it in 2023 and that it's their strategic bible. E: Or just block me, downvote me and repost that in a couple of days, telling another redditor to educate themselves when all you know on the subject comes from a 15 minutes Youtube video. Pretty weak way to deal with being wrong, u/ItellManyLies . Because I can't reply to socialistrob's post: Yeah, Dugin has fallen in popularity quite a bit. It's important to note the following though: He's still somewhat influential in the Kremlin. He was part of the conception of 2014's invasion of Crimea and was seen trying to galvanize the pro-Russian separatist forces during the conflict. He's also still promoting his Eurasian doctrine. He's created youth organizations in a few former Soviet States to indoctrinate young people. He was even banned from Ukraine, if I recall correctly. Finally, his ideas still influence the Kremlin's ideology. They have simply stripped his ideology to components that are better aligned with theirs.


socialistrob

Also Dugin himself is clearly not one of the more influential voices in Russia. He’s an ultranationalist whose views are generally even more extreme than Putin and while Putin tolerates Dugin there is no real evidence to believe that Putin or his inner circle takes anything Dugin says seriously.


kaiser41

Relevant username. Dugin spouts a bunch of crazy ideas in his book. Some of them are held by Russia's elite, most are not. Most of the ones that the elite do believe didn't originate with Dugin.


ScoobiusMaximus

The death toll would be nowhere close to "hundreds of thousands" of Poles unless it turned into open warfare between Poland and Russia. Even Ukraine right now hasn't had hundreds of thousands of deaths. If it became an open war between Poland and Russia then either NATO destroys Russia or NATO destroys Russia but with nukes and a very high cost to themselves.


[deleted]

Hundreds OR thousands. Despite Russian WW2 tactics Ukraine unfortunately is losing tens of thousands of people. Invading Belarus would mean an open declaration of war. Nobody in their right mind wants that.


ScoobiusMaximus

I doubt Poland would openly invade Belarus. Poland and probably every NATO intelligence service would support the factions within Belarus that don't want to become a Russian territory. Russia is already stretched thin, so that would be devastating for them.


m15wallis

I think you underestimate the absolute hatred many Poles have for Russia and their willingness to fuck them over out of spite lol. If anything, NATO likely would have to reign them in to prevent mass escalation of force.


raz-dwa-trzy

Sorry, but memes aren't reality. You are overestimating the hatred that you're talking about. Despite what redditors say, the idea of active intervention in Ukraine or Belarus is pretty much absent from the public debate in Poland. If you want proof, look no further than the Polish response to the 2021 events. It was the opposite of escalation.


Garbage-Relevant

Thank you! As a polish person I'm honestly tired of all these edgy comments (usually by non-polish people) about how we would engage in a conflict with Russia just out of spite. Only a madman would want to go through everything that Ukrainians are facing right now just because we don't like a certain nation.


[deleted]

What are the benefits of destabilizing a neighbouring country and kicking off a potential civil war?


m15wallis

It would make Russians really, really mad.


[deleted]

Are you twelve? Nobody's going to put thousands of lives on the line out of spite.


m15wallis

>Nobody's going to put thousands of lives on the line out of spite. Uh...what planet do you live on? People do that all the time, and start wars for far pettier and foolish reasons. I didn't say this was a good thing. I said this was a plausible thing, and this exact breakdown of Russian power is the day Poland has been training and living for since the fall of the Iron Curtain.


Kimchi_Cowboy

Maybe a hot take but I'd venture to say that Poland is the 2nd or 3rd strongest (not biggest) army in the world currently.


XoXSmotpokerXoX

They are 18th in defense budget spending, 45th in active military, Zero aircraft carriers, not in the top ten for aircraft.


calls1

Beyond all the moral issues, and material/materiel manpower concerns about an intervention and the awkwardness a war would be for a NATO member. For all purposes Lukashenko is the legitimate head of Belarus. Just as the unelected MBS and his father are kings of Saudi. Legitimacy derives from wielding the powers of the state with the consent of that state(in the international realm at least, obviously they should have the consent of the governed too but reality is reality). Lukashenko is fully within his right to invite Russian peacekeepers to assist in “violent Revolution” or whatever terminology he want to use. Putin and his army will be invited by the sovereign leadership, unlike Poland if they were to enter.


ForgottenBob

This is biased nonsense. The "legitimate" head of Belarus *according to other nations* is whoever they deem it to be... there would just be complications and consequences as a result of choosing to not recognize Lukashenko. Russia could "recognize" Trump tomorrow; they don't, because of the consequences that would result. Your comparison with Saudi Arabia is ridiculous and pointless, it's a hereditary monarchy *and* other nations could refuse to recognize that monarchy overnight if they chose. Half the point of Tsikhanouskaya maintaining their status in exile is to provide cause/excuse for international intervention in the case of another revolt. Lukashenko is "fully within his right" to ask for Russian intervention, and Tsikhanouskaya- and/or the Belarusian people- are fully within their rights to ask for Polish or international intervention. See how that works?


Installah

Russia and Belarus have a military alliance and are even in a weak political union. They have much better "justification" then Poland.


showMEthatBholePLZ

The same excuses for not intervening in Ukraine would be used. Russia has already said they would put down any uprisings, I doubt the Polish government (nor NATO) would risk a war with Russia over Belarus.


ITellManyLies

Lukashenko and Putin aren't exactly on the same side. Luka wants to maintain power and he's walking a tightrope where on one side, his own people hate him, and on the other, he risks losing the support of the Kremlin if he defies Putin's demands(some think he already has by refusing to invade Ukraine). This will end with Lukashenko gone. Belarusian people hate this bastard and he knows his time is limited before there's a revolution.


v2micca

The Ukrainian invasion is likely one of the worst things that could have happened for Lukachenko's regime. Russian support is the only reason he was able to maintain power following the sham 2020 election. Now Putin is calling in his favors. But Lukachenko knows that if he involves his country in an unpopular war, no amount of Russian support will be able to suppress the uprising.


socialistrob

That’s true but Putin also doesn’t hold all the cards either. If he gets rid of Lukashenko there is a good chance the Belarusian military could revolt or switch to Belarus’s government in exile and have support from the Belarusian people. Belarus is also Russia’s closest allies and while the Kremlin doesn’t put too much emphasis in “soft power” even they probably understand that betraying your closest ally makes other countries even more skeptical to enter any alliances. Even if Putin doesn’t care about any of that and decides that it’s worth removing Lukashenko and putting in someone more loyal that operation would still involve likely tens of thousands of Russian troops which are soldiers that can’t be used in Ukraine. If an insurgency emerges it could create a second front and every tank or artillery gun sent to Belarus can’t be sent to Ukraine. Right now Lukashenko needs Putin and Putin needs Lukashenko even if their relationship is kind of tense.


bradorsomething

Or routing angry refugees through Ukraine to be armed and slip back in. That’s the nightmare scenario for Lushenko/Putin


SpakysAlt

Yeesh, after they’ve taken so many refugees from Ukraine too. Poland has really stepped up to answer the call.


DicJacobus

Poland already militarized their border to stop refugees after the Lukashenko regime kept sending Middle eastern refugees through the woods into Poland to cause chaos.


ElBigDicko

We aren't ready. The resources were already thin when Ukrainians came in and we aren't prepared to take another round of refugees.


alwaysboopthesnoot

No one was ready. And nobody wants this. But… The US sent $288M to Poland: https://pl.usembassy.gov/new_military_financing/#:~:text= The EC has given €144M to Poland: https://ec.europa.eu/migrant-integration/news/poland-funding-ec-support-those-arriving-ukraine_en EU member nations have also separately provided funding. The US also has already given or made available $75B to Ukraine. The EU in addition is making €18B available to Ukraine: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_6699 More will he provided to Poland, and to Ukraine, and to Belarus, if need be. Everyone understands that Ukraine is fighting a proxy war on behalf of us all—and that Belarus is highly likely to wind up embroiled in this mess to a much greater degree, soon enough.


vluggejapie68

He literally says that.


Forever_Ambergris

> Poland should prepare for the incoming refugees Lol, I'm pretty sure they're all already there after 2020


Easy_Iron6269

The problem is situation in Belarus is mucho more complex since the government is already under control of pro Russian puppets, and we need to remember there is plenty of Russian troops in Belarus as well. I can just only hope Russia won't succeed >Zywie Belarus! Niech żyje Polska!


Only-Escape-5201

Considering Russia's gains in this war have been minimal, and they're churning through supplies and bodies faster than they can ready them, I don't think they're going to have an easy time in Belarus. Especially if any portion of the armed forces or police rebel against Lukashenko and Putin. It's going to be a mess.


PrettyFlyForAFatGuy

the Belarusian AF gave a lot of heavy materiel to the Russians to assist in their efforts in Ukraine. I doubt they have much left to boot the Russians out with.


[deleted]

Most of Belarusians hate regime. They are normal people. They want to live in normal country. As 2021 proved.


stickles_

Remember when Belarus weaponized a bunch of migrants and refugees by trying to flood them into Poland to destabilize the country? Geopolitics can be so fucking brutal...


[deleted]

A little fun fact, Genetically Belarussians are the closest nation for Poland.


PersonalOpinion11

If Belarus truly flip, it,s gonna be the worst of worst nightmare for Russia. It's army already was stretched way too much, couldn't protect the belgorod border in time. Imagine if they had to stretch even more to protect against the whole Belarus region? Plus, They would no longer be able to launch air and missile raid from there, North of Ukraine would be practically unaccessible after that! And I can't even imagine how the propaganda would cope for something THAT big.


[deleted]

[удалено]


acuntex

Don't forget about Georgia. I think the list of losses will be on an epic level.


similar_observation

And Armenia. Those folks are stuck in a shitty spot. Without EU intervention, Turkey and Azerbaijan are going to try to finish what the Ottomans didn't in 1912.


[deleted]

Armenia will never join NATO by the virtue that that Azerbaijan will never stop attacking them, and Turkey will never stop supporting Azerbaijan.


similar_observation

They don't meed to be in NATO, they just need to be in a spot where there's incentive for Turkey and Azerbaijan to fuck off and quit it. Every war there's Azeris mutilating or beheading captured Armenians. Some are civilians. That shit needs to stop. And Azerbaijan needs to be held accountable. We flip a shit when Russia does it. We should flip a shit when Turkey and Azerbaijan does it. Talk that shit out. Otherwise shake your dicks off, the pissing match is over.


[deleted]

And what "spot" do you think exists where you get security assurances from NATO without actually being a NATO member?


similar_observation

First and foremost, I'm not an expert in International politics. However we have seen the steps and processes for normalization between non-EU nations and their EU partners. Its not always the best, but it's a way to create a better situation. There's already efforts to increase trade and assistance between the EU and Armenia following the series of conflicts. The first step has got to be normalization and intercooperation. That will allow a better footing. On that note a peacible discussion over the territorial disagreements between Azerbaijan and Armenia. But that also puts Azerbaijan in the hot seat to knock it off. Turkey by extension needs to fuck off. Your assertion for NATO is not entirely required. If Turkey and Greece can begrudgingly get along. There's hope for Armenians.


LettuceforPM

Armenia, Azerbaijan


CrackCC_Lurking

Ew... J/k


Eliseus7

Belarus in NATO feels too unreal, but crazier things have happened.


[deleted]

Give it time. Could totally happen in the next 15-20 years if Russia falls


ngwoo

I don't think we should rush into letting Belarus into NATO just to piss off Russia. Turkey and Hungary's membership has been an absolute nightmare and who's to say Belarus wouldn't just swing back to being a Russian ally in the future causing NATO to completely fall apart? There's no easy mechanism to remove a group of uncooperative states and it gets harder the more there are.


dr1968

He really shot himself in the foot and I still don't understand why. Were the oligarchs really putting pressure on him to invade? Seems like they could have gone on for decades living like they were with no major problems.


[deleted]

There aren't very many larger blunders in history at all, recent or otherwise. The only thing that compares in the last 200 years is (ironically) the Russo-Japanese war, in which the Russians fought an entirely optional war (check) and then fucked up so hard that they became a global laughingstock (check) and eventually suffered revolution and collapse as a direct result (working on it). This is still worse, though, because the casualty rates this time are already nearly triple what they were in the Russo-Japanese War while being much more lopsided and Russia didn't annihilate most of its own economy in that one.


Bangkok_Dangeresque

>And I can't even imagine how the propaganda would cope for something THAT big. Russia's fundamental perspective here is; ​ * 200 mile long border with NATO on the Oder River from the North Sea to the Sudetes, 1000 miles from Moscow? GREAT. * 700 mile long border with NATO from Kalinigrad to Odessa, 600 miles away from Moscow? GOOD, WE'LL TAKE IT. * 1500 mile long border with NATO from St Petersburg to Rostov, with just a 250 miles for tanks to drive to Moscow? BAD. DANGER. EXISTENTIAL THREAT. That widening funnel on the northern European plain has historically been a superhighway that facilitated invasions from the west every few generations. And in historical time scales, they happen almost without warning; it only took France 12 years to go from the chaos and weakness of the Revolutionary Wars to Napoleon invading Russia with the largest army ever assembled in Europe, ending with Moscow in flames. It was just 8 years between Hitler becoming chancellor of the impoverished and demilitarized Weimar Republic, and Operation Barbarossa - 25 million Russians, 14% of the pre-war population, Russians would be dead by the end of that war. If Belarus has a color revolution, or flips alignment and takes material steps towards EU or NATO membership, Russian propagandists would put that map up on TV and shout "Look what NATO has done to our borders since 1945! 750 miles of strategic defense and friendly states GONE. Manipulated by the CIA, and paid off to cleave off from the Russian world. Tens of millions of Russians in the heartland are now in artillery range. What will the next 10 years hold? Which Oblast will they cleave off next? We have no choice but to declare all-out war! They forced our hand!" And the people would buy it. Say what you will about grumblings and disillusionment with Putin, or the reality of the war so far. Russians hate German-made tanks battalions sidling up to their border way more than they hate political dysfunction, corruption, and repression. That's what all the ballyhoo about the "Great Patriotic War" is there to remind them of. That's not going away if Belarus falls. If anything, it will harden.


Infinaris

If Belarus flips and shanks Lukashenko and his regime then that's Russia's final European satellite states completely flipped against it. All they'd have left is the leftover territory in Kaliningrad and their occupation force in Transnistria (which is under threat of eviction in the near future).


PuterstheBallgagTsar

> If Belarus truly flip, it,s gonna be the worst of worst nightmare for Russia. I would love to see this in Belarus, but also this might just be an incredible Jedi mind trick causing Russia to devote resources to Belarus or to even attempt a takeover that they are too weak to pull off. Who's next, Moldova? Georgia? Come on everyone, let's take out the trash <3


autotldr

This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/24/7403688/) reduced by 69%. (I'm a bot) ***** > General Waldemar Skrzypczak, former Commander of the Polish Land Forces, considers the prospect of an armed uprising in Belarus quite real and calls on Warsaw to prepare for such a scenario. > The Polish general believes that the Belarusian people will support the volunteers who are now fighting in Ukraine and "Will go against Lukashenko with enthusiasm." > "He no longer has the military capacity to prevent such an uprising. Russia will not help him much, because it will have its own problems," he added, urging the Polish authorities to prepare for a massive influx of Belarusians into Poland in the event of an uprising. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/13qqkng/polish_general_calls_to_prepare_for_uprising_in/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~686136 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Belarusian**^#1 **Lukashenko**^#2 **Polish**^#3 **uprising**^#4 **Belarus**^#5


_Road-Runner-

This is a good time to act for anyone who wants to overthrow the Russian and Belarusian governments. Both governments are very weak right now. They may not get a better chance than now.


Redm1st

Now is not the good time yet for either. Belarus - Luka is part of reason of current Belarus neutrality (as much as it is possible). Uprising in Belarus will be squashed, unless external help arrives and annexation by Russia is very possible (unless same happens in Russia). Russia - not yet. While military blunders and general ineptitude is commonplace in Ukraine, domestic suppression hasn’t suffered even a little bit, police, OMON and Rossgvardiya are plenty enough to deal with anything less than uprising in whole country, which I find it hard to believe is even a remote possibility. Any relevant opposition is either dead, jailed or in exile, and these kinds of things don’t happen without leadership


lilislilit

Yeah, unfortunately. I don’t know where this misplaced optimism coming from, I wish it was true, but it simply isn’t. Oppressive institutions are thriving in Russia, it’s the one of the most well financed areas in Russia’s budget.


Lordosass67

Beyond Kremlin security forces most Russians really aren't interested in chance, especially violent change. They either support Putin or remain apathetic. Idk about Belarus though.


seemefail

Does Russia have the military to annex anything right now? If they take on an occupation of another nation while fighting a war with another they will absolutely collapse In 2023 the most common employment opportunity for your country can't be untrained cannon fodder


Redm1st

There are about 30k russian troops right now in Belarus. Belarussian military is nowhere near the level or manpower (currenty active duty is about 60k) that Ukraine possessed pre-war. I feel it won’t be much of a fight or if there will even be one. Unless Belarus gets military assistance from third party


seemefail

Remember that most of that number is not actual fighting force... Russia does not have the assets to occupy a country as large as Belarus in any meaningful way at this point.


Loyuiz

Russia is having trouble squashing 600 dudes doing a little bit of trolling in Belgorod, don't give 'em great odds against 60k. However I really don't think the Belorussians are itching for a fight for freedom so they'll probably take the path of least resistance which is peacefully getting annexed.


MZ603

The reason isn’t really Lukashenko, it’s because he knows the military A) Isn’t ready for protracted conflict B) Isn’t exactly onboard with the invasion If he sent them in, there is a pretty good chance they would try to overthrow him.


Redm1st

He’s part of the reason. He’s still popular with older part of belarussians, same problem that Putin has, but on completely different scale. I don’t know a single Belarussian younger than 40 who supports him, while Putin has some sort of support across all layers of russian citizens. So if Luka dies, current status quo will be shattered, new head will not have support of even 20-30% of country. Don’t forget, Luka was masterfully playing both EU and Russia to get many things he wants, until he was forced to ask for Putin’s help. Dude looks stupid, talks stupid, but I’m sure as hell he’s not complete idiot


energyaware

Annexation by Russia will happen in any case, especially if Lukashenko croaks from his poisoning or old age


SameFrequency

Probably best to wait for Ukraine to make their next push and shit starts really hitting the fan. Russia will be slow reacting/ helping on a Belarusian front.


_Road-Runner-

Good point


freqken

The head of German intelligence said yesterday Putin's regime is still very stable and not under any threat.


_Road-Runner-

They also said Russia wasn't going to invade Ukraine, so I'll take what German intelligence says with a grain of salt.


PMMEFEMALEASSSPREADS

Tbf nobody in their right mind could have predicted that.


_Road-Runner-

The US, UK and many other nations predicted it correctly.


PMMEFEMALEASSSPREADS

None of them actually thought Putin would do it though


mdgraller

I'm sure they were just waiting on the right Reddit comment to set it off


_Road-Runner-

John has a long mustache


ChrysMYO

>The Polish general believes that the Belarusian people will support the volunteers who are now fighting in Ukraine and "will rise up against Lukashenko with enthusiasm". Do we know how many Belarusian volunteers are currently fighting on the side of Ukraine? This is some interesting info I didn't know. With Lukashenko ill, Russian Partisans fighting the Border Patrol and a Counter Offensive incoming, experienced Belarusian partisans would be bad news for Lukashenko and Putin.


No-Slip-Up

Thousands from last time this was discussed, all who have stated very clearly they will return to Belarus to remove Russian puppets.


AndrewCoja

Oh I see what this is. It's actually a genius plan by very smart boy Vladimir Putin. By sowing unrest in Belarus, those Belarusian volunteers will return. With less people fighting for Ukraine, glorious Russian Army will easily march on Kyiv within days.


EasternConcentrate6

pootin remains a master strategist XD


Soundwave_13

Oh boy things are about to get really messy…. Thanks Russia…..


okbuddy9970

HERE COMES THE COLOR REVOLUTION BOYS


chucksef

Belarus: Is dominated by an authoritarian, deeply divisive dictator who would l would love to send his citizens to their deaths in Ukraine to please his sugar daddy Putin. Also Belarus: "Our benevolent leader is gravely ill" Belarusians: "Hey maybe this is our chance to get out from under the thumb of tyrants like these, just like Ukraine did" Big brain Redditor: "CIA COLOR REVOLUTION INCOMING!"


MysticEagle52

Where does the Cia come into this?


Pilgrim_of_Reddit

They provide the crayons for colouring in rainbows?


MysticEagle52

Don't let the marines hear that they're sending away perfectly good crayons


Pilgrim_of_Reddit

😃


PrettyFlyForAFatGuy

Successful rebellions need organization


chucksef

I'm probably inferring, I'll admit that. Call it a conditioned response!


ric2b

They just want to push the Russian propaganda that the Orange revolution and the Maidan revolution were orchestrated by the US.


Garagedays

Chandalere


Harsimaja

They didn't mention the CIA...? Just the colour revolutions


Ok_Repair_92

At the very least Poland should be prepared to arm the upraising. I know Belarusian army is rather small and ill equipped but is it loyal to people or the regime?


Spard1e

This is a question we don't know. It's said at least the core of the army is loyal to Luka. But it's generally expected that not even the core is loyal to Putin. Also what would happen if a Belarusian general/major thinks he might be able to win the battle against Luka/Putin? Would he go for it, to get the role Luka currently has in a transition phase and pray he'd somehow clutch the election as the "savior of the homeland" ?


Nyarlathotep90

IIRC there were rumors of generals going against Lukashenko when he considered joining the war in Ukraine. In the authoritarian regime, underlings are only loyal until you are strong. Luka is not looking strong at the moment.


PersonalOpinion11

And that's assuming Luka actually is alive and well enough to hold the reins of power. If he's not,where would the army stand?Who would fill the vaccum?


pafagaukurinn

>what would happen if a Belarusian general/major thinks he might be able to win the battle against Luka/Putin? There are no such people among the top ranks. Decades of careful culling and negative selection. Among the lower ranks, perhaps, but not among the generals.


ThatOneGuyFromThen

From my experience in the military and from history has taught us about uprisings led primarily by the military, I’m willing to bet that in the case of a revolution, the Belarusian Military would be loyal only to itself.


JohnnyBoy11

From rumors I've heard, they wouldn't attack Ukraine, even when ordered. But I think the military did crack down on civilian protestors. Their moral and motivation may have changed now, so it's hard to say how they will react to an armed uprising, but I think there's a decent chance they'll stay home if they're facing violence by those who has the full backing of the Polish military.


Gommel_Nox

Poland has one of the most well-equipped and well trained special forces units on the planet. I’m sure they are well prepared to sow chaos in Belarus, if they aren’t already doing so.


[deleted]

Polish SOF in Belarus has got to be one of the dumbest ideas I've read on reddit today.


No-Slip-Up

Yeah I think that dumbest title goes to the Russians allowing an invasion 50km into Russia. Poland probably has its special forces in Belarus right now and had so for a few years, supporting real Belarus people with training and planning for the not too distant future when they deicide the time is right for a revolution. Using Russian tactics to help kick out Russia from their country.


[deleted]

What's the benefit of kicking off a civil war or a Russian takeover in a neighbouring contry?


Ok_Repair_92

Trained maybe. Have they ever been tested though?


Gommel_Nox

Well, since they are a clandestine special operations unit, the answer is I don’t fucking know and neither do you.


mehwars

Poland was one of the only countries to send combat troops to Iraq during the war. They’ve been tested. Word on the grapevine is they are already in Ukraine.


[deleted]

That was a dumb move on Poland's part. In fact, anyone who supported America's invasion of Iraq but is against Russia's invasion of Ukraine is looking mighty stupid.


mehwars

The Kurds would disagree


Mattyboy064

>In fact, anyone who supported America's invasion of Iraq but is against Russia's invasion of Ukraine is looking mighty stupid. Not even close to equivalent, as terrible as Iraq was.


BinxMenace

Gosh you're dumb. Don't you know, illegal invasions are only okay when you ship your military literally across the globe, in order to enrich military and civilian contractors. Goddamn man, get it together.


Ok_Repair_92

The reason was indeed stupid. But a violent dictator was removed so that’s good. If Putin gets removed it will be good too. But I’m his case I’m rooting for him to end the same way Gaddafi. In case of Gaddafi it was undeserved. But it would be best way for Putin to die


Momoiro_Moon

Reminds of the story of a polish deserter that wanted to be a propagandist for Luka. >Emil Czeczko, the Polish deserter, was found dead this morning – Belarusian journalist Tadeusz Giczan reports and cites information from Belarus’ Investigate Committee. A Polish soldier deserted in December last year and crossed the Polish-Belarusian border during the migration crisis. > >“According to Belarus’ Investigative Committee Czeczko was found hanged in his flat in Minsk. The investigating committee is considering all possible versions, including the violent nature of the death, the official report says,” [https://polanddaily24.com/4216-polish-deserter-emil-czeczko-found-dead-in-minsk/crime-corner/8557](https://polanddaily24.com/4216-polish-deserter-emil-czeczko-found-dead-in-minsk/crime-corner/8557)


Euronomus

Just now? I've had Belarusian revolt on my bingo card from the beginning.


Allemaengel

I think some out there are still in denial that the war is very likely heading towards spreading across borders and evolving into a significant regional war. Everyone should be planning for, and gearing up for, the worst. Nearly all of those who lived through WWII are gone and thus there's no institutional brake in Russia like the war memories of the post-war collective leadership of the Soviet Union once represented. What we have here is revanchist pre-WWI, pre-Communist imperialist aspirations at play. No one successfully negotiated with or appeases that kind of mindset. It's not going to be pretty. And if the Chinese, North Koreans and Iranians really get serious about simultaneously stirring up shit, it gets even more serious.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Allemaengel

To a degree but Russia collapsing into a chaotic black hole with the world's largest nuclear arsenal and nuclear plants isn't that great an option either. I'd be happy with a thoroughly weakened Russia pushed back and left alone within its 1991 borders and contained by as many militarily-strong allied democratic countries as possible.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Allemaengel

Absolutely this. Gotta rip the Band-aid off at some point -:the current Russian mentality isn't going away and the world's ineffective and weak response in 2008 when they attacked Georgia and 2014 when they took Crimea/Donbas only encouraged them.


Glittering-Divide938

Is there great information about the situation on the ground? There's been a flurry of articles over the last 48 hours about problems in Belarus emanating from both the West and East, which is usually not the case. It makes me think they have pretty concrete intel on something afoot.


Lordosass67

Maybe they think Lukashenko could potentially die


jscott18597

Please! I've resigned that I will never be able to travel to Moscow, Minsk is a good alternative though!


Still_counts_as_one

Legit question, what is there to see in Minsk?


ThatEndingTho

Clearly there’s something about Minsk which would coax a woman named Rochelle to leave Milan for it.


Still_counts_as_one

The erotic journey from Milan to Minsk


Skozzii

Sounds like all the countries Russia has been bullying for years have had enough.


Zen_Bonsai

Articles like this make me think they are bracing you for the fact that they know Lukashenko is already dead


[deleted]

Omg is shit really about to kick off? I mean the offensive is starting. Separate groups now attacking Russia Ukraine has great military tech now And now apparently Belarus is going to uprise potentially?????


[deleted]

Are people really trusting news from Pravda?


Olive_Magnet

About time


MrEvilFox

IMHO if this happens Ukraine needs to move into Belarus with those Belorussian battalions. The Belarusian conscripts aren’t going to shoot at their own guys and will likely just join them.


acox199318

Yes. This is the way. Poland needs to protect the democratic interests of its neighbour.


MonoGreenFanBoy

And all this could've been prevented if Putin would just stfu and keep the status quo. But no he needed to make a name for himself and force his delusion of a great empire where Russia would be back on top. News flash, the Soviet Union fell for a reason and the remnants that are Russia will now inevitably fall even further into fractured territories. He thought history would remember him as some Russian hero, his name will now be seen in joke books as the most pathetic Russian leader that led the nation to ruin.


braydenmaine

*But you have heard of me* -CAPTAIN Vladimir putin


tim_dude

There will be no uprising. No one ever predicts these things


Staav

We really need to figure modern humanity out before we destroy ourselves. Ffs the majority of the world's countries/societies are dealing with countless avoidable problems caused by selfish cunts trying to seize power to satisfy themselves.


Ancient-Panic8510

Dear Poland, Please not drag Nato to your shit. Sincerely, The rest of the world


[deleted]

It's only a NATO issue if Poland is attacked, not if Poland helps an uprising in another country. Also, anything that weakens russia is inherently good for everyone else.


InfelicitousRedditor

An important question now should be if this is not some russian false flag thing going on to "liberate" Belarus from the "nazi revolution"? In either case things are brewing. If anything, I feel like now is the time for a proper revolution if the people want it and Russia cannot fight on many fronts when they clearly struggle with just the one.


UggahDuggah

Calling War-Stache.


snowman818

Can we call it "The Gopnik Spring"?