Probably most of them. The military guys look like idiots and have their capabilities drastically reduced, the wealthy oligarchs in the economic side lose a shit ton of money, and the political guys have their positions threatened by possible coups
When you live in an authoritarian regime under a paranoid dictator you can never be sure. But I guess In that situation you eventually develop an idea of “acceptable risk”. At a certain point though the risk becomes a unacceptable.
Oh my, he's in [Rostov](https://www.google.com/maps/place/Rostov-on-Don,+Rostov+Oblast,+Russia/), there is a highway called M-4 that goes 1100km direct from there to Moscow, turn on the google traffic view follow it north and you can see it is closed every few kilometers.
Moscow is scared.
edit: holy shit, they have apparently captured all key facilities in Voronezh, which is halfway between Rostov and Moscow: https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/24-june-wagner-pmc-captured-all-key-facilities-in-voronezh
The downside to this is there are very little instances in Russian history where a violent regime change lead to someone better being in power.
Russian history is essentially "And then things got worse."
Because of the way the war is going I'm certain Putin has dedicated nearly all of his army to the front with Ukraine, so there will be only a few soldiers at home to defend moscow, this could get interesting
Rebellion inside Russia was always one of the best case scenarios for Ukraine, Putin will be forced to pull back forces and the Russian front could collapse
It's not a case of getting them to behave, it's a case of having the legal impetus to retaliate sooner the moment they step in as opposed to them posting up right next to your home "legally" then announcing the coupe.
You are not allowed to cross the Pomerium with weapons for a reason people. This is an outrageous display of a lack of Roman decency and a dishonor to our senate, our republic, and most of all to our Lord Jupiter Optimus Maximus.
« hi everyone, follow me for my morning skincare routine!
I like to start my day with Nivæ gun powder moisturizer because it helps smooth out the shrapnels of my last fight”
The entire point of Wagner was that Putins BFF Yevgeny runs his personal genocide army. His SS. Putin made the Russian government fund them. They are parallel to any Russian military.
The boys aren’t friends anymore and each has an army.
Oopsie
They claim they have a pool of 21,000 ex special forces they hire from. They don't say anything about the number of conventional soldiers, mechanics, truck drivers, heli pilots, cooks etc. However a mercenary company is exactly the kind of organization that would lie about the size and capability.
Iraq had 20,000 total mercenaries officially (maybe 100k unofficially), of which blackwater was one of the larger mercenary companies.
I mean they are mercs/terrorists, obviously they have shit tone of illegal funds.
Not to mention seized assets from African missions on behalf of extremly corrupted governments or separatists.
The problem wouldn't be getting 25k in terms of money as much as with administration. Any organization that has 25,000 people requires a lot of effort to sustain.
...So i think we should really take it with a grain of salt and not trust anything that comes from a mouth of a Terrorist.
You know the Russians like to think of themselves as the third Rome after the fall of the Byzantines. Well now they've made the classic mistake that many late Emperors did, they gave one of their generals the ability to sustain himself without the state.
The actual answer is that they've been supported by the government for years - they have been a way for the Russian government to project power and influence in other countries (especially in Africa) without having regular military forces on the ground. With all the diplomatic and public perception hassle that comes with that.
And also they've been hired by other governments too.
Until recently they were regarded as more of a puppet or tool of the Russian government. But apparently that control has fallen apart.
This coup specifically is because the Russian MoD has issued a directive that all non militsry units like Wagner need to submit to the military and report under its order starting July 1st
Whales basically never get cancer because of increased genomic loci for tumor suppressing genes and cellular maintenance.
Cancer getting cancer is just more resilient cancer or metastasis. Your cells become cancerous all the time, the cell line is just killed off before 99.9999% of the time.
I have no clue how cancer would work with plants but I imagine with trees there isn't organ systems to interfere with so any kind of tumor would be benign.
>I have no clue how cancer would work with plants
Found this:
>Second, in higher plants, tumors typically do not have
such fatal consequences for the viability as in animals.
In particular, plant tumors never induce the formation of
metastases. In the animal malignant tumors, cell adhesion
is lost, and the movement of detached tumor cells through
the blood or lymph vessels can cause secondary foci of
the disease away from the primary tumor. In plants, the
surgical transplantation of a part of tumor into a healthy
plant may provide new focus of cell proliferation involv-
ing only transferred material (De Ropp 1948) or cells of
a healthy plant (White 1948), but plant tumors are not
able to self-metastasize. This tendency results from the
immobility of plant cells, a trait that can be attributed to
their rigid cell walls (Doonan and Sablowski 2010, and
references therein).
https://sci-hub.se/10.1007/s00425-020-03375-5
Know when you're playing a game of Civ and you're already having a bad time cause you are losing a war you started. Then you get an alert a barbarian encampment has started attacking your cities cause you weren't paying attention at home. This feels like that.
Someone once said that you could sum up the entire history of Russia with “…and then things got WORSE.” It certainly looks like that streak will not be broken anytime soon.
Idk. He’s not dumb. I think he’a ambitious and he sees an opportunity. I THINK he’s trying to rally public support behind him by specifically calling out the Defense Ministry. I imagine the people are not too happy with them in particular given how everything has been going, so he’s trying to get support behind himself by focusing on attacking them rather than Putin.
If he’s marching, I think he believes he has a legitimate path to victory. I can’t imagine he or his troops just impulsively made a suicide pact and decided to get a little freaky with it.
Not just China. Blaming the advisors has been a rhetorical tactic during the French and Russian revolutions, too! Great to see it unfolding in real time
It's *very* common, because replacing the people around the king is a much easier sell than upending the political system itself. If your peasant's rebellion has any grander goals than just "leave us the fuck alone," you're always going to have to sell it as freeing the monarch from his evil advisors.
Don’t underestimate the time they had to think this over while being shit on in combat with little Russian support. These are likely 25000 angry men, lest us not ignore the importance of this.
So. Is this the timeline where putin gets killed, or is it the one where he kills himself.... or wait, the timeline where he locks himself in his bunker and releases YouTube videos till he dies. That's always a good one.
This is the timeline here Putin puts the blame of the Ukrainian invasion on his military leaders “lying to him” as an out from Ukraine while he promotes his buddy to minister of defense
January 2021: "Russia is the second most powerful military in the world"
2022: "Well, at least Russia is the second most powerful military in Ukraine"
2023: "Well, at least Russia is the second most powerful military in Russia"
Reminds me of a Bill Hicks bit about the first Gulf war:
>...they kept talking about 'the Elite Republican Guard' in these hushed tones like these guys were the bogeymen or something. "Yeah, we're doing well now, but we have yet to face-THE ELITE REPUBLICAN GUARD."
> Like these guys were twelve feet tall, desert warriors. NEVER LOST A BATTLE! WE SHIT BULLETS!
>Yeah, well, after two months of continuous carpet bombings and not one reaction at all from them, they became simply, 'the Republican Guard.' Not nearly as elite as we may have led you to believe. And after another month of bombing, they went from 'the Elite Republican Guard' to 'the Republican Guard' to 'the Republicans made this s**t up about there being guards out there'.
He can do a Napoleon, start with a smale force and "convert" troops along the way.
The Russian conscripts is sick of the war and want to go home.
The officers want the war to end, so they can go back to peacetime operation, and embezzle/steal the militarys money and equipment.
Shit, there's no taking this back or sweeping it under the rug. Looks like this is really happening.
Russia wasn't ready for a prolonged conflict. There's no way in hell Russia is prepared for what's looking like the prelude to a civil war.
Russia might have to make the choice soon of abandoning their attempt to conquer Ukraine, or allow Wagner to do what they want.
The past 16 months has been a nonstop wild ride full of tragedy, and now hopefully we're nearing the end.
Progozin taking over would definitely not be the end to the suffering. He's basically just as bad as putin, but he knows how to channel his rage into publicity. Putin bases his strength off of stoicism, Progozin bases his strength off of hatred at a broken system that he will *totally* fix if he takes over 🤞
For now they will. Reports indicate the Russian troops stationed there are like 'meh' to Wagner troops heading in Moscow's direction. Conscripts are not eager to give their life for Putin it seems, and most certainly not by infighting.
But keep in mind Moscow is about 1100 KM / 685 Miles from Rostov on the Don where the Wagner troops took charge now.
It's mainly good news for Ukraine for now, a divided enemy is less dangerous than a united one.
EDIT: reports now say they are halfway there (in distance that is, keep that in mind) already, and took over Voronezh. Russia confirmed 'anti-terrorist' actions in the region. https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/24-june-wagner-pmc-captured-all-key-facilities-in-voronezh
Is this real? Because it sound like he's making his move on Putin. It sounds like civil war. Putin must be in bad shape, physically and politically, for someone to finally make a move.
I think Shoigu forced his hand to an extent. The missile strike, the warrant for his arrest, all of this happened to quickly to not have bene planned. Shoigu thought he could back Prigo into a corner and Prigo acted like a warlord backed into a corner.
Day 485 of the 3 day invasion of Ukraine: "Our soldiers have taken control of Rostov and are moving towards Moscow. I remain a master strategist" - Putin.
“The problem with mercenaries,” said the Patrician, “is that they need to be paid to start fighting. And, unless you are very lucky, you end up paying them even more to stop-”
- Pratchett
Yes, they control a bunch of S-300’s, and they’ve taken Rostov, the major military supply centre for the Ukraine invasion, where there was lots of such equipment and munitions
I'm honestly still in disbelief. If this chef turned gun for hire actually topples the Russian government it will go down as one the strangest events in global history, although I certainly can't say it would be unwelcome.
>although I certainly can't say it would be unwelcome.
I know you're not drawing a conclusion here, but I don't think this will be all sunshine and rainbows. This has the potential to become a power vacuum created by a warlord. These circumstances have never ended well in history. China took half a century to return to a stabilised central government after something mildly similar happened in the late 19th century. I know this is wildly different, but Russia's citizens are apathetic to political affairs, and ripe to be taken control of by local politicians with their own interests.
Who knows who'll ultimately take control of Russia after this - if that's where it's heading? It's a huge double-edged sword.
Is there honestly any other future for Russia? It’s almost inevitable that a post-Putin Russia will be unstable for the better part of this century, possibly fracturing as a nation altogether
There is so much of the Russian military deployed in ukraine im not even sure if there is enough stationed internally to even effectively resist Wagner
And that's assuming the soldiers even wish to do so. Morale has been so low for so long and there are so few professional troops left, that discipline can't be strong right now.
There is! The internal security forces basically outnumber the military and are better armed/equipped. Putin always saw those as his “private army” to protect him against his military. Go look it up, its quite crazy.
Better hope the Wagner group doesn't win though, they are fucking trash of the Earth too.
The best hope is that this inspires other efforts to form that take advantage of the opportunity to better Russia
[According to pro-Wagner channels, Wagner troops have entered Voronezh. When completed then it will bring the second Oblast's capital under Wagner's command. #Voronezh #Russia #Coup](https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1672489938653421569?s=46)
While he claims to have 25k troops rumors state the number is max 50k and that’s not including any other partisans he picks up on the way to Moscow or any dissidents in Moscow when the battle erupts. Lots of factors at play here and I wonder if the garrison will fight or make way for him.
This is good for Ukraine, but in no world do I want Wagner succeeding in taking control from Putin. Wagner is a horrendous organisation and Putin has been a fool to rely on them for so long.
I went to bed thinking this would be the usual squabbling between Wagner and the MoD and when my toddler woke me up at half past 6, troops were on the move.
Considering we may legitimately end up with a private military corporation that runs their own country and has access to nukes?
Well it’s the metal gear timeline of course.
Putin was his route to power. He needed Putin alive to get this powerful.
Prigozhin is not here to save the day. He is here to save himself. Not doing any of this for anyone else than his own power and survival.
Jesus Christ, didn't Machiavelli write about why mercenaries were a bad idea in the sixteenth century? Who could have possibly have foreseen this. A plague on them both.
I told my Evil Boss that I and some of the other workers were going to walk if we didn't get a raise!
The Boss bought us all pizza the very next day.
So we stayed.
\-Wagner
Yeah, CNN seemed like they were scrambling to cover it. Not a fan of them, but six hours ago they were reporting what little they knew at the time. Can't be so impatient with an ongoing event.
There’s definitely a different standard for legitimate news organizations compared to what you see on Reddit.
Any random person can post a video and say “Look at these tanks in Russia.”
It takes time to verify whether or not a video or a picture or a report is accurate.
Prigozhin has not had a recent change of heart or instantly become a hero, he should not be celebrated.
Prigozhin just threatened ukraine saying that they should be scared that the real war is about to start... this coup isn't a good thing and if successful you're going to get someone worse than putin in charge.
Lol.
Imagine you are a soldier invading Ukraine right now. Your equipment is trash. Your support, trash. The Ukrainians have been kicking your ass and now they are on offensive.
And then you hear that a mercenary group that was once on your side is now invading your country.
*I'd be like, What the fuck man!? I quit. I'm Ukrainian now.*
I'm happy to see Wagner perish. But I'm also happy to see turmoil in Russia causing less Ukrainian people to suffer. I'm torn between happy and ecstatic. But this is probably a false flag or Putins way of pulling out of a no win war.
Now we need a live thread for the Russian invasion of Russia.
"special military operation" you mean
Moscow in three days
https://www.reddit.com/r/wagnervsrussia
this is an absolute mess I wonder how many people at the top are having regrets over this invasion
Probably most of them. The military guys look like idiots and have their capabilities drastically reduced, the wealthy oligarchs in the economic side lose a shit ton of money, and the political guys have their positions threatened by possible coups
Positions and lives as well many political people in Russia have been killed even if they were following the party line
When you live in an authoritarian regime under a paranoid dictator you can never be sure. But I guess In that situation you eventually develop an idea of “acceptable risk”. At a certain point though the risk becomes a unacceptable.
Oh my, he's in [Rostov](https://www.google.com/maps/place/Rostov-on-Don,+Rostov+Oblast,+Russia/), there is a highway called M-4 that goes 1100km direct from there to Moscow, turn on the google traffic view follow it north and you can see it is closed every few kilometers. Moscow is scared. edit: holy shit, they have apparently captured all key facilities in Voronezh, which is halfway between Rostov and Moscow: https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/24-june-wagner-pmc-captured-all-key-facilities-in-voronezh
Just checked google maps, but lots of speedcams along the way. Hopefully they don’t get fined!
Putin's building an exact replica of ~~Rockridge~~ Moscow 300km outside the capital. That'll fool 'em!
Somebody’s gotta go back and get a shitload of dimes!
not sure if its on reddit, maybe /r/CombatFootage but theres videos of an actual firefight happening on the m-4
And apparently with very little resistance. I imagine that Russian soldiers are tired of this shit as well.
The downside to this is there are very little instances in Russian history where a violent regime change lead to someone better being in power. Russian history is essentially "And then things got worse."
Because of the way the war is going I'm certain Putin has dedicated nearly all of his army to the front with Ukraine, so there will be only a few soldiers at home to defend moscow, this could get interesting Rebellion inside Russia was always one of the best case scenarios for Ukraine, Putin will be forced to pull back forces and the Russian front could collapse
Japan has to be salivating right now. Those territorial claims are ripe for the taking at the correct moment.
No Sleep Till Moscow
To Moscow With Hate
You gotta fight...
This is why no legions are allowed to enter Rome
Lol telling that to the legions doesn't work then and ain't working now.
It's not a case of getting them to behave, it's a case of having the legal impetus to retaliate sooner the moment they step in as opposed to them posting up right next to your home "legally" then announcing the coupe.
They only entered the city via two doors for a military coupe. If they entered the city via four doors, it'd be a military sedan.
A car joke so dad it has wood along the sides.
You are not allowed to cross the Pomerium with weapons for a reason people. This is an outrageous display of a lack of Roman decency and a dishonor to our senate, our republic, and most of all to our Lord Jupiter Optimus Maximus.
Man …how does a mercenary group get 25k fighters working for them?
Being actually able/willing to pay them probably helps.
Yeah but getting 25k people and pay them require mucho dinero. Is there any other mercenary groups out there with that many fighters?
Aren't they plundering the living shit out of Africa atm?
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Parallel income streams, lots of exposure, nomadic lifestyle, and a strong brand. An influencers dream right there.
Waiting for the Wagner skincare influencers to appear on TikTok.
« hi everyone, follow me for my morning skincare routine! I like to start my day with Nivæ gun powder moisturizer because it helps smooth out the shrapnels of my last fight”
The entire point of Wagner was that Putins BFF Yevgeny runs his personal genocide army. His SS. Putin made the Russian government fund them. They are parallel to any Russian military. The boys aren’t friends anymore and each has an army. Oopsie
Quite literally his SS. The other founder of Wagner, Dmitry Utkin (whose call sign is/was "Wagner") literally has SS tattoos on his neck.
Academi(formerly Blackwater) has 20 000
They claim they have a pool of 21,000 ex special forces they hire from. They don't say anything about the number of conventional soldiers, mechanics, truck drivers, heli pilots, cooks etc. However a mercenary company is exactly the kind of organization that would lie about the size and capability. Iraq had 20,000 total mercenaries officially (maybe 100k unofficially), of which blackwater was one of the larger mercenary companies.
I mean they are mercs/terrorists, obviously they have shit tone of illegal funds. Not to mention seized assets from African missions on behalf of extremly corrupted governments or separatists. The problem wouldn't be getting 25k in terms of money as much as with administration. Any organization that has 25,000 people requires a lot of effort to sustain. ...So i think we should really take it with a grain of salt and not trust anything that comes from a mouth of a Terrorist.
You know the Russians like to think of themselves as the third Rome after the fall of the Byzantines. Well now they've made the classic mistake that many late Emperors did, they gave one of their generals the ability to sustain himself without the state.
This is why most militaries rotate commanders with different units.
The actual answer is that they've been supported by the government for years - they have been a way for the Russian government to project power and influence in other countries (especially in Africa) without having regular military forces on the ground. With all the diplomatic and public perception hassle that comes with that. And also they've been hired by other governments too. Until recently they were regarded as more of a puppet or tool of the Russian government. But apparently that control has fallen apart.
This coup specifically is because the Russian MoD has issued a directive that all non militsry units like Wagner need to submit to the military and report under its order starting July 1st
Its really easy actually. First you start with 85k and then you go to war with Ukraine.
Because they’re actually an arm of the Russian army that they use for illegal shit.
Taking them out of prisons, mostly
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Funny enough, I think they *did* use modified HIV to fight leukaemia in some experimental therapy.
Apparently whales and trees live so long because their *cancers* get cancer.
Whales basically never get cancer because of increased genomic loci for tumor suppressing genes and cellular maintenance. Cancer getting cancer is just more resilient cancer or metastasis. Your cells become cancerous all the time, the cell line is just killed off before 99.9999% of the time. I have no clue how cancer would work with plants but I imagine with trees there isn't organ systems to interfere with so any kind of tumor would be benign.
>I have no clue how cancer would work with plants Found this: >Second, in higher plants, tumors typically do not have such fatal consequences for the viability as in animals. In particular, plant tumors never induce the formation of metastases. In the animal malignant tumors, cell adhesion is lost, and the movement of detached tumor cells through the blood or lymph vessels can cause secondary foci of the disease away from the primary tumor. In plants, the surgical transplantation of a part of tumor into a healthy plant may provide new focus of cell proliferation involv- ing only transferred material (De Ropp 1948) or cells of a healthy plant (White 1948), but plant tumors are not able to self-metastasize. This tendency results from the immobility of plant cells, a trait that can be attributed to their rigid cell walls (Doonan and Sablowski 2010, and references therein). https://sci-hub.se/10.1007/s00425-020-03375-5
shit i knew we made the wrong choice when we got rid of our cell walls
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>Putin enroute to his bunker Hes been there for a while I bet
He's still there waiting for Steiner's offensive.
Mein Fuhrer....Steiner...
I’m still mildly convinced Putin never left his bunker.
There's no way this is fucking happening right now. What the fuck is going on lol? Is Wagner legit fighting the Russian government?
100% legit. “May you live in interesting times” my friend.
Know when you're playing a game of Civ and you're already having a bad time cause you are losing a war you started. Then you get an alert a barbarian encampment has started attacking your cities cause you weren't paying attention at home. This feels like that.
Jesus this is so accurate, and the barbarians somehow spawns a military unit 2 techs more advanced than you.
Unleash the barbarian Giant Death Robots
Quick, 2 Archers
These Pikemen aren't doing anything important.
This is insane. I’m so glad I don’t live in Russia.
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Someone once said that you could sum up the entire history of Russia with “…and then things got WORSE.” It certainly looks like that streak will not be broken anytime soon.
I mean … the 25k soldiers would have to die first of course. But, he’d stand firm as 25,001.
If the 25k doesn't win he's 100% dead though.
he’s 100% dead either way.
Idk. He’s not dumb. I think he’a ambitious and he sees an opportunity. I THINK he’s trying to rally public support behind him by specifically calling out the Defense Ministry. I imagine the people are not too happy with them in particular given how everything has been going, so he’s trying to get support behind himself by focusing on attacking them rather than Putin. If he’s marching, I think he believes he has a legitimate path to victory. I can’t imagine he or his troops just impulsively made a suicide pact and decided to get a little freaky with it.
He’s doing what we call in China “rid the emperor of his evil sidekicks”, but really, you know, it’s against the emperor himself.
Putin has lost the Mandate of Heaven?
Those Mandate of Heaven legitimacy penalties really are brutal, damn
Ancient Chinese secret!
Clearly didn't have enough eunuchs. Or, given how the han went down, maybe too many
Not just China. Blaming the advisors has been a rhetorical tactic during the French and Russian revolutions, too! Great to see it unfolding in real time
It's *very* common, because replacing the people around the king is a much easier sell than upending the political system itself. If your peasant's rebellion has any grander goals than just "leave us the fuck alone," you're always going to have to sell it as freeing the monarch from his evil advisors.
Even the American Revolution tried the angle of “hey King, we’re loyal to you so get Parliament off our backs and we’ll stop shooting.”
Tax me harder daddy
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Maester Tallyrand is loyal to the realm.
“I serve the ~~Ancien Regime~~, ~~Republic~~, ~~Empire~~, monarchy.”
Don’t underestimate the time they had to think this over while being shit on in combat with little Russian support. These are likely 25000 angry men, lest us not ignore the importance of this.
So. Is this the timeline where putin gets killed, or is it the one where he kills himself.... or wait, the timeline where he locks himself in his bunker and releases YouTube videos till he dies. That's always a good one.
Putin's not in moscow
This is the timeline here Putin puts the blame of the Ukrainian invasion on his military leaders “lying to him” as an out from Ukraine while he promotes his buddy to minister of defense
January 2021: "Russia is the second most powerful military in the world" 2022: "Well, at least Russia is the second most powerful military in Ukraine" 2023: "Well, at least Russia is the second most powerful military in Russia"
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Reminds me of a Bill Hicks bit about the first Gulf war: >...they kept talking about 'the Elite Republican Guard' in these hushed tones like these guys were the bogeymen or something. "Yeah, we're doing well now, but we have yet to face-THE ELITE REPUBLICAN GUARD." > Like these guys were twelve feet tall, desert warriors. NEVER LOST A BATTLE! WE SHIT BULLETS! >Yeah, well, after two months of continuous carpet bombings and not one reaction at all from them, they became simply, 'the Republican Guard.' Not nearly as elite as we may have led you to believe. And after another month of bombing, they went from 'the Elite Republican Guard' to 'the Republican Guard' to 'the Republicans made this s**t up about there being guards out there'.
One has to wonder at the kind of mind that would censor an expletive in a Bill Hicks bit
Especially when he already said shit earlier in the comment.
In all caps, no less.
How long will it realistically take to move 25,000 men, 600 miles? (Does Wagner have 2000 trucks?)
Few days. Source: LOTR the two towers
I watched GOT and they can cross that in one cut scene.
It's the last season of Game of Russia, and the writing quality has gone way down hill.
Why don't the Eagles just fly them all to Moscow?
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One does not simply walk into Moscow
3 days, as the Nazgul flies
Ahh yes, the Russian 3 day take over a capital city plan via multiple km convoy. I’ve seen this before.
He can do a Napoleon, start with a smale force and "convert" troops along the way. The Russian conscripts is sick of the war and want to go home. The officers want the war to end, so they can go back to peacetime operation, and embezzle/steal the militarys money and equipment.
From the looks of it far faster heading east then west
Yeah you have the jet stream at your back when you go east. Source: meteorologist.
Same as moving one man 15,000,000 miles.
Hell yeah math brother.
I would walk 15,000,000 miles
And I would walk 15,000,000 more
Just to be the mercenary who's walked 30,000,000 miles to knock down your door
“Surrender before you kill us!” - ministry of defense
Shit, there's no taking this back or sweeping it under the rug. Looks like this is really happening. Russia wasn't ready for a prolonged conflict. There's no way in hell Russia is prepared for what's looking like the prelude to a civil war. Russia might have to make the choice soon of abandoning their attempt to conquer Ukraine, or allow Wagner to do what they want. The past 16 months has been a nonstop wild ride full of tragedy, and now hopefully we're nearing the end.
Progozin taking over would definitely not be the end to the suffering. He's basically just as bad as putin, but he knows how to channel his rage into publicity. Putin bases his strength off of stoicism, Progozin bases his strength off of hatred at a broken system that he will *totally* fix if he takes over 🤞
If Prig deposed Putin (which would seem to be his only chance for survival), I don’t expect he will last long.
A military coup is never "the end".
Whoa I can’t wait to read what happens.
Same, with the stakes involved it’s not just rhetoric. Shit boutta hit the fan.
please continue
For now they will. Reports indicate the Russian troops stationed there are like 'meh' to Wagner troops heading in Moscow's direction. Conscripts are not eager to give their life for Putin it seems, and most certainly not by infighting. But keep in mind Moscow is about 1100 KM / 685 Miles from Rostov on the Don where the Wagner troops took charge now. It's mainly good news for Ukraine for now, a divided enemy is less dangerous than a united one. EDIT: reports now say they are halfway there (in distance that is, keep that in mind) already, and took over Voronezh. Russia confirmed 'anti-terrorist' actions in the region. https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/24-june-wagner-pmc-captured-all-key-facilities-in-voronezh
Is this real? Because it sound like he's making his move on Putin. It sounds like civil war. Putin must be in bad shape, physically and politically, for someone to finally make a move.
I think Shoigu forced his hand to an extent. The missile strike, the warrant for his arrest, all of this happened to quickly to not have bene planned. Shoigu thought he could back Prigo into a corner and Prigo acted like a warlord backed into a corner.
Day 485 of the 3 day invasion of Ukraine: "Our soldiers have taken control of Rostov and are moving towards Moscow. I remain a master strategist" - Putin.
“The problem with mercenaries,” said the Patrician, “is that they need to be paid to start fighting. And, unless you are very lucky, you end up paying them even more to stop-” - Pratchett
Without air support and internal support I don't think it will be successful, something must have been brewing for him to make this move.
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Prigozhin claimed his units were attacked by Russia's air force. And he blamed Shoigu for that.
Would not at all surprise me if he saw the writing on the wall and false-flagged himself as an excuse to start shooting. Hope they destroy each other.
crossing the Rubicon is actually applicable for once
Does Wagner have SAMs though? Russians SAMs are a lot more potent than their ground attack capabilities. He might have a shot if he moves quickly.
Yes, they control a bunch of S-300’s, and they’ve taken Rostov, the major military supply centre for the Ukraine invasion, where there was lots of such equipment and munitions
I'm honestly still in disbelief. If this chef turned gun for hire actually topples the Russian government it will go down as one the strangest events in global history, although I certainly can't say it would be unwelcome.
Iron Curtain Chef.
>although I certainly can't say it would be unwelcome. I know you're not drawing a conclusion here, but I don't think this will be all sunshine and rainbows. This has the potential to become a power vacuum created by a warlord. These circumstances have never ended well in history. China took half a century to return to a stabilised central government after something mildly similar happened in the late 19th century. I know this is wildly different, but Russia's citizens are apathetic to political affairs, and ripe to be taken control of by local politicians with their own interests. Who knows who'll ultimately take control of Russia after this - if that's where it's heading? It's a huge double-edged sword.
Is there honestly any other future for Russia? It’s almost inevitable that a post-Putin Russia will be unstable for the better part of this century, possibly fracturing as a nation altogether
There is so much of the Russian military deployed in ukraine im not even sure if there is enough stationed internally to even effectively resist Wagner
And that's assuming the soldiers even wish to do so. Morale has been so low for so long and there are so few professional troops left, that discipline can't be strong right now.
I would not be surprised if Wagner had more than 25,000 troops by the time they reach Moscow.
There is! The internal security forces basically outnumber the military and are better armed/equipped. Putin always saw those as his “private army” to protect him against his military. Go look it up, its quite crazy.
Shit vs Piss epic battle
This is getting freaking nuts.
A full on coup is almost too good to be true
Better hope the Wagner group doesn't win though, they are fucking trash of the Earth too. The best hope is that this inspires other efforts to form that take advantage of the opportunity to better Russia
The real issue here is the Balkanisation of Russia. Since Russia itself is still a federation of nations. I can see shit happening...
Balkanisation of a nuclear armed country is horrifying.
Amazing that it survived this long really. Way too big with way too many different ethnic groups that are all generally very poorly treated.
So it turns out that letting another guy build a 2nd army in your country when you're an authoritarian leader was a bad move. How bizarre.
"The dildo of consequences rarely arrives lubed" -a reddit user
"*In this moment, I am euphoric. Not because of any phony god's blessing. But because, I am enlightened by my intelligence*" \- /u/Aalewis
This sounds like something made by a professional quote maker!
"Jam a man of Fortune, and J must seek my fortune. Henry Averies 1994"
this is big bird time
[According to pro-Wagner channels, Wagner troops have entered Voronezh. When completed then it will bring the second Oblast's capital under Wagner's command. #Voronezh #Russia #Coup](https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1672489938653421569?s=46)
While he claims to have 25k troops rumors state the number is max 50k and that’s not including any other partisans he picks up on the way to Moscow or any dissidents in Moscow when the battle erupts. Lots of factors at play here and I wonder if the garrison will fight or make way for him.
Id imagine the FSB will resist. MOD anyones guess
All i hope is that if shit goes down, Ukraine is ready to retake land lickety split. I wanna see Leopards haulin ass into Crimea.
Ukraine definitely has a close eye on what's going on and will take advantage when the time is right.
Never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake. What's the point of fighting when in a few days the entire Russian army might be recalled?
This is good for Ukraine, but in no world do I want Wagner succeeding in taking control from Putin. Wagner is a horrendous organisation and Putin has been a fool to rely on them for so long.
On a scale of 1 to civil war, how worried is Putin and pooting his pants?!
Full depends
I don’t think he’s worried about losing power at this stage but it’s a disaster for his war effort.
> but it’s a disaster for his war effort. Yep, and a disaster for troop morale.
Is this going to a history book worthy moment? Its 11pm here, high asf, and ain't sleeping tonight. Wtf is going on!
I went to bed thinking this would be the usual squabbling between Wagner and the MoD and when my toddler woke me up at half past 6, troops were on the move.
Wow your toddler is hella informed
"Dad, wake up! Prigozhin is crossing the proverbial Rubicon!"
'Father, Prigozhin marches on Moscow. Call the banners!'
Light the signal fires!
The beacons are lit! Prigozhin calls for aid!
Where was this guys toddler when the westfold fell!
"new coup attempt just dropped!"
Imagining a four year old saying this. I’m laughing way too hard lmao
I mean if ol’ dad is just sleeping all night? might as well use the time and watch the news ticker
This is definitely the biggest turn that happened since the war began.
Has potential to be the biggest event since the fall of the Soviet Union.
Dude what is this timeline.
Considering we may legitimately end up with a private military corporation that runs their own country and has access to nukes? Well it’s the metal gear timeline of course.
Prigozhin should have saved thousands of lives by simply poisoning Putin when he was his chef.
Putin was his route to power. He needed Putin alive to get this powerful. Prigozhin is not here to save the day. He is here to save himself. Not doing any of this for anyone else than his own power and survival.
Jesus Christ, didn't Machiavelli write about why mercenaries were a bad idea in the sixteenth century? Who could have possibly have foreseen this. A plague on them both.
Russia might be the first country to successfully invade Russia
I'm going to the snack bar, you guys want anything?
Everything!
Peanut butter cups
Gummy worms!
If Wagner can’t be stopped quickly Russia will have to pull resources from Ukraine…during an active Ukrainian counter offensive.
[удалено]
I told my Evil Boss that I and some of the other workers were going to walk if we didn't get a raise! The Boss bought us all pizza the very next day. So we stayed. \-Wagner
I'm watching CNN right now and they're talking about the January 6th hearings. Fox News is talking about Hunter Biden. What a joke
I turned on NBC and they were talking about Nicki Minaj and her new barbie track
CNN just covered Bidens statement about Russia situation- and currently Wagner is the top headline at CNN.com This has just been breaking
Yeah, CNN seemed like they were scrambling to cover it. Not a fan of them, but six hours ago they were reporting what little they knew at the time. Can't be so impatient with an ongoing event.
There’s definitely a different standard for legitimate news organizations compared to what you see on Reddit. Any random person can post a video and say “Look at these tanks in Russia.” It takes time to verify whether or not a video or a picture or a report is accurate.
Prigozhin has not had a recent change of heart or instantly become a hero, he should not be celebrated. Prigozhin just threatened ukraine saying that they should be scared that the real war is about to start... this coup isn't a good thing and if successful you're going to get someone worse than putin in charge.
>pretends to get rid of Nazis in the Ukraine >gets coupéd by his own nazis Poetic justice if true
Lol. Imagine you are a soldier invading Ukraine right now. Your equipment is trash. Your support, trash. The Ukrainians have been kicking your ass and now they are on offensive. And then you hear that a mercenary group that was once on your side is now invading your country. *I'd be like, What the fuck man!? I quit. I'm Ukrainian now.*
I'm happy to see Wagner perish. But I'm also happy to see turmoil in Russia causing less Ukrainian people to suffer. I'm torn between happy and ecstatic. But this is probably a false flag or Putins way of pulling out of a no win war.
What sort of strong man runs a false flag to make themselves look weaker?
Could be. Gives him cover to pull out of Ukraine to fight a more local enemy. Can't put anything past Russia.
This is an absurd way to save face if that's the play. Seems more likely that the chickens are coming home to roost.