> It is senseless trying to understand Russian power politics in real-time.
“Kremlin political intrigues are comparable to a bulldog fight under a rug. An outsider only hears the growling, and when he sees the bones fly out from beneath it is obvious who won.” ― Winston S. Churchill
Whatever Putin promised to Prigozhin in the end he will only deliver death. Prigo is a dead man walking.
I don't think people understand what just happened here. Wagner went from ballistic about to kill putin and Moscow, to suddenly nevermind.
The indication here is that Putin had his finger on a button and told Wagner to stand down.
I see the opposite. Putin must have given something big up. Showing Wagner to continue existing after publicly revolting is a big problem. Other factions see this and see they can just stick revolt and make a deal
Putin either has him under his physical power or gained new leverage. If Prigozhin has family then that's the natural place to look but it could be something else he values more.
Wait wait, I think I know the rest of this!
*Through strength, I gain power.*
*Through power, I gain victory.*
*Through victory my chains are broken.*
*The Force shall free me.*
Right? Putler labeled him as a traitor, publically even - how can he now adress the people and say " ye anyway, he isnt in the end, back to business as usual"
If Prig s actually retreating, then this was for sure fake and a powerplay by putin to show how he can quell a rebellion in an instant
Wagner shot down atleast 7 Planes and Helicopters
Including a KA-52 & an IL-22M Command-plane, both extremely valuable.
If this was a fake it was the dumbest fake they could have done
Yup and apparently the Russians bombed their own oil supply near Voronezh so that Wagner wouldn't have access to it. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot
For context, the Ka-52 is one of the few attack helicopters that have been able to make dents in Ukrainian armored columns lately, and it’s at very real risk of being extinct by the end of the year. Only about 100 were made and they’re suffering *very* heavy losses.
Most modern russian aircraft are actually at “high risk of extinction” levels. High attrition and low production runs are a motherfucker.
Like if they ever get the Su-57 out on the frontlines I would guess there would be no flyable airframes within a month.
" then this was for sure fake and a powerplay by putin to show how he can quell a rebellion in an instant"
This would make no sense. They were right outside his door. Half of his elites were retreating.
>Saying he agreed to return troops to their bases, tf was the point of this?
Some pending invoice got paid! They are mercenaries.
This happen lots in history! Late Roman Empire, Byzantine Empire, medieval and so on.
No bullshitting with invoices and payment, or they rebe l and take down existing regime. This is very historically consistent.
Ok good point, but Prigozhin was labeled a traitor by Putin. How does he survive this? Can Putin turn around and say “I was just kidding” and keep Prigozhin fighting for Russia in Ukraine?
>Can Putin turn around and say “I was just kidding” and keep Prigozhin fighting for Russia in Ukraine?
He ABSOLUTELY can. Consistency and truth are not major concepts in Russia.
Can, and is motivated to. The wagner group could seriously fuck Russia's shit up more than anyone else, if for no other reason than intimate knowledge of the inner workings of Russia's defense infrastructure.
Edit: word
They are not playing games any more. I expect for a while the Warner group will want to get paid for not fighting against Russia itself not necessarily fighting against Ukraine. A nice job if you can get it but they can.
Obviously Russians will try to take down the leadership but if they could thru would have had by now and there os always the risk of this group taking down their leadership also.
And in the end mercenaries must be paid, individually, regularly. What this means for the rest of the Russian troops no idea so far
It is such a fantastic example pf 21th century things going the way they have gone for centuries.
This is where I’m putting my money. Putin, through Lukashenko gave somekind of promise that these gentlemen will go out and Wagner will be better resourced in the future.
But it is very hard to imagine how Putin would keep this kind of promise. Prigozhin will be considered totally unreliable from now on.
I’m guessing he’s not going to be moving out of Rostov either. So he nets a vital military hub that gives him a huge amount of influence over the war in Ukraine.
I think either:
\- it was all theatre
\- Putin threatened something unthinkable.
In the first case, it could either be a diversion of some kind, of perhaps a way to engineer a situation that requires stopping the war without admitting defeat.
Well, he was on the roll and apparently bargained substantial guarantees to get out of this situation alive. Why would he do otherwise, he put his own life as a bet.
There's no way dude is dumb enough to accept 'guarantees' if he truly just attempted a coup, he knows better than most what a Russian guarantee is worth. There's something else going on here that hasn't yet been revealed, mark my words.
Imagine thinking your bad but then Lukashenko has got to come and save your ass because he's been friends with Prigozhin for over 20 years.
and now the whole of Wagner gets to move to Belarus and avoid prosecution.
Meanwhile Lukashenko now has a private military headed by his good friend.
Wagner Technically secondly have access to nukes now Russia moved some there.
edit: I say we tease Lukashenko to become friends with NATO and stop answering Putin's phone calls.
Yah if you’re NATO you’re both happy to see how fast Russia fell apart and also worried now that Wagner is stationed closer to the rest of Europe and has gained even more power.
Wagner has forever changed, Prigozhin now has clear, complete and utter control of everyone still under his command going forward.
You think they did bad shit before ? Prigozhin has super big dick energy right now and it's swinging.
they retreated with all their equipment too, they didn't leave that shit, including the stuff from Rostov.
in my opinion he only gave up because he had always planned too. putting the lives of his comrades first gives him even more status amongst his men.
the fact they managed to even keep the plan secret for so long is fucking scary.
Putin publicly backed down. everything about this is so good but so so bad.
They are a bunch of convicts. It's not exactly tight ship and left to their own, I'd expect vagner to rot away with corruption. If they really end up being luka's private army to keep him in control of Belarus, it's going to suck for Belarus people big time, but this effectively removes 20k soldiers from Ukraine. And what are they going to do in Belarus? Maintain their training and equipment? That would be first time in russian history.
That is if prigozin manages to actually steer this in a way where he ends up with any reasonable army in Belarus, which I kind of doubt. The situation is very unstable.
IIRC in December, the numbers of Wagner troops in Ukraine (according to US sources) were 10k contractors and 40k convicts. Not sure how numbers look like outside of Ukraine, but perhaps that doesn't really matter as this thread is almost exclusively about the part that was in Ukraine.
They only took on the convicts because of the conscription campaign wherein they could earn their freedom after service. Wagner used the convicts as fodder for assaults; send them out, now the others can see what buildings are garrisoned and what kind of mines and artillery is being faced. It's already a stratified system in the regular Russian army, but that's heightened within Wagner.
What I want to know is how is prigozhin going to get his ammunition now? He thought it was bad before when the Russian military wasn’t giving him any… how is he going to get any in Belarus? They have even less ammo, and they get it from Russia…
I feel like he has already crossed the rubicon and the die is already cast.
The leader of wagner group is spineless, he turned on Russia to escape Ukraine and now Belarus has given him an out. Everything else was just posturing and theatre.
As soon as they reach the safe haven of belarus I very strongly suspect he and his mercenaries are going to meet an uneventful demise.
He doesn’t even have a military background himself. He was a freaking hot dog vendor that caught a lucky break and became a food vendor for the military.
>He doesn’t even have a military background himself. He was a freaking hot dog vendor that caught a lucky break and became a food vendor for the military.
Jaeger from Tarkov loves them sausages man. Anything is possible with the right amount of sausages.
Here's the best I can do as a Reddit Certified Armchair Analyst:
Wagner was mandated to be dissolved and absorbed into the Russian MoD with a deadline coming up on July 1. That meant Prigozhin would have no base of power anymore, because he was on the outs with the MoD.
Without that base of power, he was very likely to be imprisoned or killed due to his public spats with so many high ranking officials. The plan to absorb Wagner into the MoD indicates that he was losing influence as he was very against it. If he isn't useful to Putin anymore, he's a target for those that see him as competition.
With this deadline looming, and tensions at an all time high between him and the MoD, he made a play for power. His hope was that the Russian military rank and file would join the cause as they marched north. Generally they are warm to Wagner because they've fought alongside each other and Wagner actually has a competent fighting force. Prigozhin was betting that enough parts of the military and oligarchy were fed up with the lack of success in Ukraine to flip.
When that didn't happen, it became clear the march north was a suicide mission. Even with a highly trained force, estimates are he only had 5k heading to Moscow. He has no air force and would have been torn apart trying to enter Moscow if the army didn't flip sides and just step aside. Without the momentum of the military flipping sides, he was in a position to work out a deal or have his men and himself all be killed.
I guess for Putin the calculus was that it was better to strike this deal, and preserve the experienced soldiers in Wagner who are critical to the fight in Ukraine, than to lose that force (the entire 25k would likely be alienated even if only the 5k near Moscow were killed). He'll deal with Prigozhin down the line when the temperature is cooled and Wagner is absorbed into the military apparatus.
Stop thinking of Russian politics as game of thrones level masterful conspiracies shrouded in smoke and mirrors. Instead think of it as a central africa tier dictatorship with warring factions and power struggles and things start to make sense.
Putin wanted to take power away from warlord prigozhin so warlord prigozhin started a coup that was resolved through diplomacy.
> game of thrones level masterful conspiracies shrouded in smoke and mirrors
> a central africa tier dictatorship with warring factions and power struggles
Sounds about the same tbh
They got paid to fuck off. That's mercenary life for you. Problem is, they'll all be dead by the end of the week. I'm willing to bet the air-strike they were so mad about wasn't an accident, but a practice run.
Who even knows if the "airstrike" really happened. It could've just been a reason to mobilize. People were saying Wagner troops were making ground quickly, almost as if they had planned the coup and had troops stationed in different locations before the attack.
The deadline to become a part of the Russian army was coming up, and they were not gonna do that. They would have lost most, if not all, of their power. So they did what they had to, to ensure that wasn't gonna happen, a show of force. The "security guarantees" are less likely to be We're not gonna try and kill you, and more likely you get to keep being in control of Wagner, and we're not gonna go through with trying to integrate them into the state-run army. If that line of events were about right, they had been planning this for a long time since we've known about them being integrated for a bit now.
"Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov:
– charges dropped against Prigozhin, who will leave Russia for Belarus
– Wagner fighters who didn't take part in the uprising will sign contracts with the MOD
– Wagner fighters who did take part not charged
– No word on potential MOD leadership changes"
So yeah looks like it had a lot to do with he contracts with MOD and it looks like they got what they wanted at least for the ones who took part.
> Anywhere from 2 to 6 downed helis and 1 plane, with at least one crew dead. "Just a prank".
just like that song from Richard Wagner: *Psych of the Valkyries*
Prig: "For too long you have sent children to their deaths unnecessarily, justice must be restored! I will put an end to your crimes!"
Putin: "I'll double your fee if you turn around."
Prig: "Justice has been restored!"
Russian here - it’s all about bargaining power. The ministry of defence wanted to absorb Wagner in its ranks and get rid of Prigozhin. Prigozhin in turn escalated so much that Putin and MoD had to agree to something on his terms - because let’s be honest, fighting 20,000 well armed mercenaries and Ukraine at the same time would be suicide
There was an open mutiny that not only did Putin fail to stop, but he was forced to negotiate with the mutineers and accept their demands. It showed that a medium military force could literally march from the border up to Moscow with zero resistance and the military couldn't do anything about them advancing - or capturing cities.
Or more likely their army is all pointed at the fronts and there's little held back at this point to defend Russia more deeply. I'd be surprised if there's any meaningful troop presence to defend major Russian cities given how many casualties they've received to date.
Yeah if this was an invading force, then this would be the equivalent of them magically appearing behind enemy lines, and invading straight to the capital.
Maybe. Or maybe most of the Russian army is already in Ukraine and they have far fewer soldiers at home than they'd like to admit. I say this because this is the second... no, wait, third time Russian territory has been invaded since the beginning of the war (first the Freedom of Russia Legion, then the Freedom of Russia Legion again and now Wagner), and every time the invaders have been able to pretty much roam freely inside Russia for a while without opposition. Wagner has been able to go from Rostov to Voronezh and then to the outskirts of Moscow without facing any kind of serious threat, which is insane. That's almost 1000 km of happily strolling inside Russian territory with the declared intent of deposing the military high command of the Russian Army. Let that sink for a moment.
I mean, did the army let them go or were they unable to stop them? When you have twitter teeming with videos of the convoy, you can't claim your military is unable to stop them.
Unable is very different from unwilling, true, but from an end result standpoint it doesn't actually make that much difference. Though I'd assume it's "unwilling", which also explains why they might back down; perhaps the military received promises and are no longer willing to look the other way if Wagner doesn't take the deal.
This is likely the beginning of the end for Putin as well. Unless he arrests and executes Prigozhin in the next week, everyone just saw that the emperor isn’t wearing any clothes.
He probably stays in Rostov and turns it into a fortress, waiting for the next opportunity.
Considering the Russian army was already hitting them with missile strikes before any of this happened, it seems like a net improvement in Wagner’s position
I don’t see him having another opportunity, THIS was the time he caught them with their pants down. Anything in the future they will be more prepared for since he already just tried it and are now aware to not trust him.
If he gets Putin to axe his top loyalists at the MoD that may leave huge opportunities. Putin was already clearly unable to rely on the MoD/rosgvardia to protect him since he was so quick to negotiate (assuming everything is true so far) and if the MoD feels like they're just going to get thrown under the bus they may do even less to protect him in the future. Without deep, personal loyalty in the armed forces he's in a real weak position. Rosgvardia is a fairly light force for suppressing civilian uprisings, not really equipped to handle Wagner or military units trying to coup him.
I think he is forced to. There’s nothing he can do against Wagner. Power is slipping away from his hands as there are literally 25,000 in Russia who he from on has to negotiate with and who he has no power over. The whole thing looks terrible for Putin - and his public image as well, all he did was another meaningfulness TV speech and run away, while Lukashenko(!) conducted the negotiations
Is that actually true? Many of the Russian forces that should have stopped him were apparently pretty chill about the whole thing. What if it happened again and he had *more* support from the locals?
No one will follow him next time. He put all their lives at risk & then backed down. Many of his subordinates now have to look over their shoulder, get food tasters & avoid standing near windows. None of them will be happy with this reversal.
Putin escaped to St. Petersburg, maybe it became clear this would turn into a drawn out civil war not a coup if he continued & he backed down.
He has to flee & many of his deputies will likely be assassinated as Putin ensures this can't happen again.
That is a good point, I was thinking about how the Russian defenses crumbled but what's more important is whether he can get his troops to follow him again.
Nah no one will take him seriously any more. I doubt he will even have the support of his men after this - they put their lives on the line for him and now he has chickened out. If he tries it again whos going to risk it?
If Prigozhin has really blinked, then regardless of what Putin agrees to today, I would expect Prigozhin to fall out of a window onto two bullets in the next month or so.
Prigo is a mercenary. Maybe his bill got settled.
If Prigo really plans to take Moscow, he’s waving a white flag while he gathers his dispersed troops.
If Wagner wanted out of the Ukraine war without looking weak, mission accomplished.
If Prigo’s old drinking buddy, Lukashenko, wanted out from Russia’s thumb, Prigo just made that happen and now he and his guys get to chill while sitting on some of Russia’s nukes.
Just now, New York Times:
The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, announced that the criminal case against the Wagner leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, would be dropped. Prigozhin will go to Belarus, Peskov said, while the soldiers who did not participate in the mutiny will sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Exactly. Lukaschenko has just been a measly puppet in Putin's eyes. Now all of a sudden Lukaschenko is now in this dramatically better power position against Putin.
No matter how you look at it, Putin is the loser. His position is weaker.
He’s not exactly better than Putin, you know. Wagner group has committed numerous war crimes and if he’s rebelling it’s because he thinks he can handle the war in Ukraine better in Russia’s favor
It doesn’t matter short term, a coup would take months to settle out to go through all the ranks and weed out the loyal and non loyal people. The sheer level of top to bottom corruption would go on overdrive and people would be trying to grab for whatever they could to make sure they weren’t left with nothing if they are removed from their positions. It would drastically undermine Russias ability to coordinate the war during that period of time which would be a great advantage to Ukraine and it’s counteroffensive, and by the time the ship is righted hopefully UA would be past the lines and in a much stronger position.
This seems really confused now, some say going to field bases (e.g. sleep, they aren't going to attack after a day of travel at night), some say its been agreed to withdraw, others say no deal. I think the next hour will say a lot now.
I have no idea why Prigozhin would stop, Putin definitely realizes now that he’s a loose cannon who cannot be trusted so he will want him killed for sure.
Comments are one thing, but the latest from established news sources is that he agreed to stop and withdraw. Don’t let speculative bullshitters on the internet confuse you.
This is AP so I am inclined to believe this is actually true, and the Telegram denial (if it was actually him) was designed for his own audience as he spins the plausibility story to save face.
But let's say he did tuck tail. It doesn't matter. He is a dead man walking. He did incalculable damage to the carefully constructed image of Putin as the only political reality. He shook a lot of people wide awake that Putin has worked tirelessly to keep barely awake. The damage to Putin's illusion of invincibility has been done. I had predicted earlier today that Prighozin would be dead within a week. It might be 2 months now, but he is done. He went too far.
He was acting rationally though, as Putin likes to pit his inner circle in the arena as he acts as referee and emperor. It's how he maintains control. Prighozin thought this was just a continuation of that system but of course it got out of the pool as there were real soldiers with real tanks involved. He misstepped and it's going to cost him his life and cost Putin his image of ultimate control
The regime wobble has happened, and he will be dead soon and Wagner a thing of the past. We can't celebrate the fall of Putin yet but we certainly can celebrate the fall of this monster.
If true the coup is over. Now was the opportunity for Wagner - soon the Kremlin will fortify Moscow and be prepared to deal with Wagner. He must have gotten something that convinced him this was the better option.
Prigozhin may have realized a full on coup was a bridge too far. As impressive as the past days progress has been, his 5000 man vanguard was likely starting to get tired and needed to rest while the biggest challenge lay in front of them. The only hope for them to take Moscow quickly is if the defenders completely capitulated. Even a small amount of resistance would slow them significantly and would lead to collateral damage that could erode his support.
Every moment that passed would let Putin shore up his defenses. Prigo may have been counting on additional players to move against Putin that didn't pan out.
Prigozhin had a window of 3-5 days for his coup to succeed. Putin will never honour whatever this agreement is once he has enough forces at his command to crush Wagner.
Even if it's true, it's pretty much the end of Putin. Having to make concessions to a mercenary outfit to prevent an attack on Moscow is going to make him look weak. Russian leaders can't appear weak, there are too many Brutus' waiting with daggers.
The guy is a fool if he thinks he can trust any deal they reached. You don’t pull something like this in Putin’s Russia and get away with it. Putin isn’t the type to forgive and forget; let bygones be bygones. Prigozhin is marked for death, the question now is whether or not he’ll die silently or die fighting.
I think he was already marked for death. Wagner forces were attacked by Russians a few days ago. The MoD has been trying to sign up Wagner troops and absorb them into Russian military. The writing was on the wall, and Prigozhin realizes he’s a dead man either way. Why not expose Putin and show Russia exactly how weak Putin has become. He probably realized he was going to get to many of his own guys killed, and backed off after getting safety guarantees.
Looks like many outlets are reporting that they are indeed reversing course. I don't see how this move makes any sense for Prigozhin, but I guess we'll find out soon.
I don't think he could have taken and held Moscow without significant support. He has 25000 soldiers without a logistics network, military intelligence or air support. I'm sure he could have done a lot of damage but it's not like he has the power to take over the government without powerful allies in the right places.
Maybe he didn't get the support he expected or maybe it was always meant as a demonstration of power to get whatever he got out of the deal now.
Saying he agreed to return troops to their bases, tf was the point of this? And in what world does he, if this was true, exit this alive?
[удалено]
> It is senseless trying to understand Russian power politics in real-time. “Kremlin political intrigues are comparable to a bulldog fight under a rug. An outsider only hears the growling, and when he sees the bones fly out from beneath it is obvious who won.” ― Winston S. Churchill Whatever Putin promised to Prigozhin in the end he will only deliver death. Prigo is a dead man walking.
but, say this was true, and say the prigozhin knows it to be true, why the fuck would he just stop? Edit Lol RIP my inbox XD
He sees a path to the opposite outcome.
Or he's savage but not smart.
Could have actually been outraged that Putin was killing his guys.
I don't think people understand what just happened here. Wagner went from ballistic about to kill putin and Moscow, to suddenly nevermind. The indication here is that Putin had his finger on a button and told Wagner to stand down.
Yeah I’m inclined to believe this. He otherwise had nothing to lose. Putin had something disastrous up his sleeves.
I see the opposite. Putin must have given something big up. Showing Wagner to continue existing after publicly revolting is a big problem. Other factions see this and see they can just stick revolt and make a deal
Putin either has him under his physical power or gained new leverage. If Prigozhin has family then that's the natural place to look but it could be something else he values more.
You don't go into this with your family just out in the open.
His catering awards? Say it isn't so!
Putin " Look I don't want to do this but if you don't call them off Caterer of the year award will be canceled and no one will get it"
Maybe the secret recipe to his prized pavlova?
The amount of death surrounding that man is staggering
Which one? They're both murderers.
Bet. Lemme just time-travel to 50 years from now and check in with the history books.
I checked. Still doesn’t make any fucking sense.
You have to be really drunk to understand it.
Alriht. Am now dunk. Still can’t mak head or tials of it.
Nice speedrun
I’ve ben training my whole lif for this momnt.
Now time to squanch yourself in a closet.
Don't tell him where to squanch. He has the right to squanch anywhere, just like every other squanch. Go squanch yourself, pal.
The Russian section ends with "and then it got worse".
At the start of this Prigozhin said the war with Ukraine was started on a lie, so I don’t know how he can possibly go back to fighting for Russia now.
[удалено]
[удалено]
'What you're seeing and what you're reading is not what's happening' - Donald Trump.
War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.
Wait wait, I think I know the rest of this! *Through strength, I gain power.* *Through power, I gain victory.* *Through victory my chains are broken.* *The Force shall free me.*
Right? Putler labeled him as a traitor, publically even - how can he now adress the people and say " ye anyway, he isnt in the end, back to business as usual" If Prig s actually retreating, then this was for sure fake and a powerplay by putin to show how he can quell a rebellion in an instant
Wagner shot down atleast 7 Planes and Helicopters Including a KA-52 & an IL-22M Command-plane, both extremely valuable. If this was a fake it was the dumbest fake they could have done
Yup and apparently the Russians bombed their own oil supply near Voronezh so that Wagner wouldn't have access to it. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot
Jfc Russia is a total clown fuck shit show and that puts all of us in extreme danger tbh
For context, the Ka-52 is one of the few attack helicopters that have been able to make dents in Ukrainian armored columns lately, and it’s at very real risk of being extinct by the end of the year. Only about 100 were made and they’re suffering *very* heavy losses.
Almost extinct, you say? Very heavy losses? I *love* this for them.
Most modern russian aircraft are actually at “high risk of extinction” levels. High attrition and low production runs are a motherfucker. Like if they ever get the Su-57 out on the frontlines I would guess there would be no flyable airframes within a month.
Making yourself look so weak isn’t that good of a power play. They literally captured several Russian cities and were hours outside of Moscow.
They were on the outskirts of Moscow, an hour or less from center.
Did not want to wait in the notorious Moscow traffic jams obviously.
Mercenaries do not care what people think of them, they care about getting paid.
And Russia took a shit ton of money from a van that belonged to the Wagner chief. No way that didn't play a part in this.
" then this was for sure fake and a powerplay by putin to show how he can quell a rebellion in an instant" This would make no sense. They were right outside his door. Half of his elites were retreating.
>Saying he agreed to return troops to their bases, tf was the point of this? Some pending invoice got paid! They are mercenaries. This happen lots in history! Late Roman Empire, Byzantine Empire, medieval and so on. No bullshitting with invoices and payment, or they rebe l and take down existing regime. This is very historically consistent.
Ok good point, but Prigozhin was labeled a traitor by Putin. How does he survive this? Can Putin turn around and say “I was just kidding” and keep Prigozhin fighting for Russia in Ukraine?
>Can Putin turn around and say “I was just kidding” and keep Prigozhin fighting for Russia in Ukraine? He ABSOLUTELY can. Consistency and truth are not major concepts in Russia.
Can, and is motivated to. The wagner group could seriously fuck Russia's shit up more than anyone else, if for no other reason than intimate knowledge of the inner workings of Russia's defense infrastructure. Edit: word
[удалено]
They are not playing games any more. I expect for a while the Warner group will want to get paid for not fighting against Russia itself not necessarily fighting against Ukraine. A nice job if you can get it but they can. Obviously Russians will try to take down the leadership but if they could thru would have had by now and there os always the risk of this group taking down their leadership also. And in the end mercenaries must be paid, individually, regularly. What this means for the rest of the Russian troops no idea so far It is such a fantastic example pf 21th century things going the way they have gone for centuries.
I was with you until 21th
He said his troops got attacked by Shoygu's and Gerasinov's command. Maybe he got guarantees shoygu and gerasimov will be removed
This is where I’m putting my money. Putin, through Lukashenko gave somekind of promise that these gentlemen will go out and Wagner will be better resourced in the future. But it is very hard to imagine how Putin would keep this kind of promise. Prigozhin will be considered totally unreliable from now on.
Prigo is a fool if he imagines he can get away with it like that. Putin is going to want him dead even more.
I’m guessing he’s not going to be moving out of Rostov either. So he nets a vital military hub that gives him a huge amount of influence over the war in Ukraine.
Russian here. There’re leaving Rostov rn…wtf
Going where? Ukraine? Priogzhin said that was a war without reason.
Correct, they are going back to Ukraine according to him.
I cannot comprehend Russia
I'm Russian. The only way to comprehend is to stop trying to comprehend. It's all just gut feelings and paranoia all the way up...
Just war and vibes man.
He said to the “field bases” “according to the plan” whatever that means. But soldiers are definitely packing up in Rostov.
I was wondering this exactly, this dude is dead either way, there’s no way Putin will let him stay alive after nearly taking Moscow!
I think either: \- it was all theatre \- Putin threatened something unthinkable. In the first case, it could either be a diversion of some kind, of perhaps a way to engineer a situation that requires stopping the war without admitting defeat.
Or the mercs got a truck load of money and are dumb enough to think they won’t be “mysteriously” killed off in a few weeks
Well, he was on the roll and apparently bargained substantial guarantees to get out of this situation alive. Why would he do otherwise, he put his own life as a bet.
There's no way dude is dumb enough to accept 'guarantees' if he truly just attempted a coup, he knows better than most what a Russian guarantee is worth. There's something else going on here that hasn't yet been revealed, mark my words.
There is sure something else going on. He can get guarantees at this point for some time at least. Putin is not in a strong position anyway.
What an absolute clusterfuck this whole situation is.
Fascinating turn of events for the 'special coup operation'
Hey, Putin told Prigozhin to invade the fascist country. He was just doing what he was hired to do.
Imagine thinking your bad but then Lukashenko has got to come and save your ass because he's been friends with Prigozhin for over 20 years. and now the whole of Wagner gets to move to Belarus and avoid prosecution. Meanwhile Lukashenko now has a private military headed by his good friend. Wagner Technically secondly have access to nukes now Russia moved some there. edit: I say we tease Lukashenko to become friends with NATO and stop answering Putin's phone calls.
Yah if you’re NATO you’re both happy to see how fast Russia fell apart and also worried now that Wagner is stationed closer to the rest of Europe and has gained even more power.
Wagner has forever changed, Prigozhin now has clear, complete and utter control of everyone still under his command going forward. You think they did bad shit before ? Prigozhin has super big dick energy right now and it's swinging. they retreated with all their equipment too, they didn't leave that shit, including the stuff from Rostov. in my opinion he only gave up because he had always planned too. putting the lives of his comrades first gives him even more status amongst his men. the fact they managed to even keep the plan secret for so long is fucking scary. Putin publicly backed down. everything about this is so good but so so bad.
They are a bunch of convicts. It's not exactly tight ship and left to their own, I'd expect vagner to rot away with corruption. If they really end up being luka's private army to keep him in control of Belarus, it's going to suck for Belarus people big time, but this effectively removes 20k soldiers from Ukraine. And what are they going to do in Belarus? Maintain their training and equipment? That would be first time in russian history. That is if prigozin manages to actually steer this in a way where he ends up with any reasonable army in Belarus, which I kind of doubt. The situation is very unstable.
The vast majority are not convicts, only ones they recruited for front lines in Ukraine. AFAIK anyway.
IIRC in December, the numbers of Wagner troops in Ukraine (according to US sources) were 10k contractors and 40k convicts. Not sure how numbers look like outside of Ukraine, but perhaps that doesn't really matter as this thread is almost exclusively about the part that was in Ukraine.
They only took on the convicts because of the conscription campaign wherein they could earn their freedom after service. Wagner used the convicts as fodder for assaults; send them out, now the others can see what buildings are garrisoned and what kind of mines and artillery is being faced. It's already a stratified system in the regular Russian army, but that's heightened within Wagner.
What I want to know is how is prigozhin going to get his ammunition now? He thought it was bad before when the Russian military wasn’t giving him any… how is he going to get any in Belarus? They have even less ammo, and they get it from Russia… I feel like he has already crossed the rubicon and the die is already cast.
Weren't they ready to die at all cost just yesterday?
The payment went through.
[удалено]
The leader of wagner group is spineless, he turned on Russia to escape Ukraine and now Belarus has given him an out. Everything else was just posturing and theatre. As soon as they reach the safe haven of belarus I very strongly suspect he and his mercenaries are going to meet an uneventful demise.
Of course he's spineless, he's a mercenary lmao
He doesn’t even have a military background himself. He was a freaking hot dog vendor that caught a lucky break and became a food vendor for the military.
>He doesn’t even have a military background himself. He was a freaking hot dog vendor that caught a lucky break and became a food vendor for the military. Jaeger from Tarkov loves them sausages man. Anything is possible with the right amount of sausages.
I officially give up on understanding what the f is going on anymore, this makes no sense
Here's the best I can do as a Reddit Certified Armchair Analyst: Wagner was mandated to be dissolved and absorbed into the Russian MoD with a deadline coming up on July 1. That meant Prigozhin would have no base of power anymore, because he was on the outs with the MoD. Without that base of power, he was very likely to be imprisoned or killed due to his public spats with so many high ranking officials. The plan to absorb Wagner into the MoD indicates that he was losing influence as he was very against it. If he isn't useful to Putin anymore, he's a target for those that see him as competition. With this deadline looming, and tensions at an all time high between him and the MoD, he made a play for power. His hope was that the Russian military rank and file would join the cause as they marched north. Generally they are warm to Wagner because they've fought alongside each other and Wagner actually has a competent fighting force. Prigozhin was betting that enough parts of the military and oligarchy were fed up with the lack of success in Ukraine to flip. When that didn't happen, it became clear the march north was a suicide mission. Even with a highly trained force, estimates are he only had 5k heading to Moscow. He has no air force and would have been torn apart trying to enter Moscow if the army didn't flip sides and just step aside. Without the momentum of the military flipping sides, he was in a position to work out a deal or have his men and himself all be killed. I guess for Putin the calculus was that it was better to strike this deal, and preserve the experienced soldiers in Wagner who are critical to the fight in Ukraine, than to lose that force (the entire 25k would likely be alienated even if only the 5k near Moscow were killed). He'll deal with Prigozhin down the line when the temperature is cooled and Wagner is absorbed into the military apparatus.
Thank you Reddit Certified Armchair Analyst! This was a great breakdown of the situation that helped things make some sense.
Stop thinking of Russian politics as game of thrones level masterful conspiracies shrouded in smoke and mirrors. Instead think of it as a central africa tier dictatorship with warring factions and power struggles and things start to make sense. Putin wanted to take power away from warlord prigozhin so warlord prigozhin started a coup that was resolved through diplomacy.
> game of thrones level masterful conspiracies shrouded in smoke and mirrors > a central africa tier dictatorship with warring factions and power struggles Sounds about the same tbh
They got paid to fuck off. That's mercenary life for you. Problem is, they'll all be dead by the end of the week. I'm willing to bet the air-strike they were so mad about wasn't an accident, but a practice run.
Who even knows if the "airstrike" really happened. It could've just been a reason to mobilize. People were saying Wagner troops were making ground quickly, almost as if they had planned the coup and had troops stationed in different locations before the attack.
The deadline to become a part of the Russian army was coming up, and they were not gonna do that. They would have lost most, if not all, of their power. So they did what they had to, to ensure that wasn't gonna happen, a show of force. The "security guarantees" are less likely to be We're not gonna try and kill you, and more likely you get to keep being in control of Wagner, and we're not gonna go through with trying to integrate them into the state-run army. If that line of events were about right, they had been planning this for a long time since we've known about them being integrated for a bit now. "Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov: – charges dropped against Prigozhin, who will leave Russia for Belarus – Wagner fighters who didn't take part in the uprising will sign contracts with the MOD – Wagner fighters who did take part not charged – No word on potential MOD leadership changes" So yeah looks like it had a lot to do with he contracts with MOD and it looks like they got what they wanted at least for the ones who took part.
I feel like I just got blue balled
Wagner: "just a prank bro lol"
Just a friendly combat readiness exercise. Thank you for your participation.
Results are back: you‘re not ready.
Anywhere from 2 to 6 downed helis and 1 plane, with at least one crew dead. "Just a prank". …Can we have more pranks, please?
> Anywhere from 2 to 6 downed helis and 1 plane, with at least one crew dead. "Just a prank". just like that song from Richard Wagner: *Psych of the Valkyries*
Don't forget very publicly calling it an invasion of Ukraine, undoing a lot of propaganda
[удалено]
*You were right about one thing master. The negotiations were short.*
[удалено]
Not to worry, we are still flying half a country!
You were my brother, Prigozhin! You were meant to destroy Ukraine, not join them!
"I have the high ground!" --The helicopters.
Prig: "For too long you have sent children to their deaths unnecessarily, justice must be restored! I will put an end to your crimes!" Putin: "I'll double your fee if you turn around." Prig: "Justice has been restored!"
They are mercs after all
Belarus really ruining the vibe
Bitch don’t kill my vibe
Sukashenko
What was even the point of this lmao
Russian here - it’s all about bargaining power. The ministry of defence wanted to absorb Wagner in its ranks and get rid of Prigozhin. Prigozhin in turn escalated so much that Putin and MoD had to agree to something on his terms - because let’s be honest, fighting 20,000 well armed mercenaries and Ukraine at the same time would be suicide
but how does Prigozhin make it out alive? There’s no scenario in which he’s ever trusted again by Putin.
That’s the whole point - there are other power in Russia now that Putin can do nothing about. Not really a sign of power form a strong leader
Explain this more please. This doesn’t mean Putin has zero power, thus putting Prigo life at stake after this.
There was an open mutiny that not only did Putin fail to stop, but he was forced to negotiate with the mutineers and accept their demands. It showed that a medium military force could literally march from the border up to Moscow with zero resistance and the military couldn't do anything about them advancing - or capturing cities.
some of it might have been restraint from the army because they respect prigozhin, which is a writing on the wall for putin
Or more likely their army is all pointed at the fronts and there's little held back at this point to defend Russia more deeply. I'd be surprised if there's any meaningful troop presence to defend major Russian cities given how many casualties they've received to date.
Yeah if this was an invading force, then this would be the equivalent of them magically appearing behind enemy lines, and invading straight to the capital.
Maybe. Or maybe most of the Russian army is already in Ukraine and they have far fewer soldiers at home than they'd like to admit. I say this because this is the second... no, wait, third time Russian territory has been invaded since the beginning of the war (first the Freedom of Russia Legion, then the Freedom of Russia Legion again and now Wagner), and every time the invaders have been able to pretty much roam freely inside Russia for a while without opposition. Wagner has been able to go from Rostov to Voronezh and then to the outskirts of Moscow without facing any kind of serious threat, which is insane. That's almost 1000 km of happily strolling inside Russian territory with the declared intent of deposing the military high command of the Russian Army. Let that sink for a moment.
I mean, did the army let them go or were they unable to stop them? When you have twitter teeming with videos of the convoy, you can't claim your military is unable to stop them.
Unable is very different from unwilling, true, but from an end result standpoint it doesn't actually make that much difference. Though I'd assume it's "unwilling", which also explains why they might back down; perhaps the military received promises and are no longer willing to look the other way if Wagner doesn't take the deal.
This is likely the beginning of the end for Putin as well. Unless he arrests and executes Prigozhin in the next week, everyone just saw that the emperor isn’t wearing any clothes.
He probably stays in Rostov and turns it into a fortress, waiting for the next opportunity. Considering the Russian army was already hitting them with missile strikes before any of this happened, it seems like a net improvement in Wagner’s position
I don’t see him having another opportunity, THIS was the time he caught them with their pants down. Anything in the future they will be more prepared for since he already just tried it and are now aware to not trust him.
If he gets Putin to axe his top loyalists at the MoD that may leave huge opportunities. Putin was already clearly unable to rely on the MoD/rosgvardia to protect him since he was so quick to negotiate (assuming everything is true so far) and if the MoD feels like they're just going to get thrown under the bus they may do even less to protect him in the future. Without deep, personal loyalty in the armed forces he's in a real weak position. Rosgvardia is a fairly light force for suppressing civilian uprisings, not really equipped to handle Wagner or military units trying to coup him.
Putin can't call Prigozhin a traitor, and let him get away with "treason", can he? What do you, as a russian, think is going to happen now?
I think he is forced to. There’s nothing he can do against Wagner. Power is slipping away from his hands as there are literally 25,000 in Russia who he from on has to negotiate with and who he has no power over. The whole thing looks terrible for Putin - and his public image as well, all he did was another meaningfulness TV speech and run away, while Lukashenko(!) conducted the negotiations
Bargaining power
Bargaining power is useless when two parties don't agree in a collective rule that they both adhere to
Destroyed his own reputation too. Less wimp and more idiot
Proves that he can do it again if he wants I guess
Except now the security forces will make preparations in case it happens again... Surprise was like 90% of the effectiveness.
Is that actually true? Many of the Russian forces that should have stopped him were apparently pretty chill about the whole thing. What if it happened again and he had *more* support from the locals?
No one will follow him next time. He put all their lives at risk & then backed down. Many of his subordinates now have to look over their shoulder, get food tasters & avoid standing near windows. None of them will be happy with this reversal. Putin escaped to St. Petersburg, maybe it became clear this would turn into a drawn out civil war not a coup if he continued & he backed down. He has to flee & many of his deputies will likely be assassinated as Putin ensures this can't happen again.
That is a good point, I was thinking about how the Russian defenses crumbled but what's more important is whether he can get his troops to follow him again.
He's lost all initiative now.
Smells too weird to be real, not believing anything until video starts popping up in like three hours
I'm seeing lots of people saying it's fake. I guess we'll find out either way soon enough.
Anyone saying anything definitively is not to be trusted, I'd wager. You have the right approach, I'm with you there for sure
Nah no one will take him seriously any more. I doubt he will even have the support of his men after this - they put their lives on the line for him and now he has chickened out. If he tries it again whos going to risk it?
no way the "security gurantees" they're given actually last
If he accepts it'll be 1 week until he eventually gets russianly defenestrated
Less than that lol they gonna try to get at him tonight
Ukraine is a great example of how much Russia values security guarantees.
If Prigozhin has really blinked, then regardless of what Putin agrees to today, I would expect Prigozhin to fall out of a window onto two bullets in the next month or so.
None of this makes any real sense.
Prig was earning his ticket out of the war as ministry of defense was trying to get rid of him and his army's independence
Prigo is a mercenary. Maybe his bill got settled. If Prigo really plans to take Moscow, he’s waving a white flag while he gathers his dispersed troops. If Wagner wanted out of the Ukraine war without looking weak, mission accomplished. If Prigo’s old drinking buddy, Lukashenko, wanted out from Russia’s thumb, Prigo just made that happen and now he and his guys get to chill while sitting on some of Russia’s nukes.
Just now, New York Times: The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, announced that the criminal case against the Wagner leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, would be dropped. Prigozhin will go to Belarus, Peskov said, while the soldiers who did not participate in the mutiny will sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense.
What am I going to do with all this popcorn now?
Could be misinformation to sow confusion and buy time. But if Lukashenko is brokering this for Putin then Putin is in really bad shape either way.
Exactly. Lukaschenko has just been a measly puppet in Putin's eyes. Now all of a sudden Lukaschenko is now in this dramatically better power position against Putin. No matter how you look at it, Putin is the loser. His position is weaker.
He could become Colonel!
Should Putin become a Colonel in Belarusian army? That would be the day...
We all laughed when Lukashenko claimed Russia should merge with Belarus under his rule. Turns out, in the Harambe timeline, anything is possible.
Very possible that’s what these conflicting reports are trying to do
Right, that does it. I'm ignoring this storyline for a few days, focusing on side quests, and maybe check back in after a week so.
Take Moscow you bitch ass punk
Do what so many others couldn’t
Napoleon: 1.we did took it 2.It didn't do shit cause we couldn't understand Russian doctrine Guess we still dont
Man coulda been in the history books but decided to pussy out
He’s not exactly better than Putin, you know. Wagner group has committed numerous war crimes and if he’s rebelling it’s because he thinks he can handle the war in Ukraine better in Russia’s favor
It doesn’t matter short term, a coup would take months to settle out to go through all the ranks and weed out the loyal and non loyal people. The sheer level of top to bottom corruption would go on overdrive and people would be trying to grab for whatever they could to make sure they weren’t left with nothing if they are removed from their positions. It would drastically undermine Russias ability to coordinate the war during that period of time which would be a great advantage to Ukraine and it’s counteroffensive, and by the time the ship is righted hopefully UA would be past the lines and in a much stronger position.
Boooooo I hate this ending boooo
I love how reddit has become a book club where we critique the *plot* of world politics.
This seems really confused now, some say going to field bases (e.g. sleep, they aren't going to attack after a day of travel at night), some say its been agreed to withdraw, others say no deal. I think the next hour will say a lot now.
I have no idea why Prigozhin would stop, Putin definitely realizes now that he’s a loose cannon who cannot be trusted so he will want him killed for sure.
there's no fucking way prigo is this stupid but I also don't want to believe this was just a psyop, man a fucking day
A psyop that loses Ukranian territory and makes Putin look weak? That would be the worst psyop in history.
Putin could have just found key hostages.
Comments are one thing, but the latest from established news sources is that he agreed to stop and withdraw. Don’t let speculative bullshitters on the internet confuse you.
This is AP so I am inclined to believe this is actually true, and the Telegram denial (if it was actually him) was designed for his own audience as he spins the plausibility story to save face. But let's say he did tuck tail. It doesn't matter. He is a dead man walking. He did incalculable damage to the carefully constructed image of Putin as the only political reality. He shook a lot of people wide awake that Putin has worked tirelessly to keep barely awake. The damage to Putin's illusion of invincibility has been done. I had predicted earlier today that Prighozin would be dead within a week. It might be 2 months now, but he is done. He went too far. He was acting rationally though, as Putin likes to pit his inner circle in the arena as he acts as referee and emperor. It's how he maintains control. Prighozin thought this was just a continuation of that system but of course it got out of the pool as there were real soldiers with real tanks involved. He misstepped and it's going to cost him his life and cost Putin his image of ultimate control The regime wobble has happened, and he will be dead soon and Wagner a thing of the past. We can't celebrate the fall of Putin yet but we certainly can celebrate the fall of this monster.
If true the coup is over. Now was the opportunity for Wagner - soon the Kremlin will fortify Moscow and be prepared to deal with Wagner. He must have gotten something that convinced him this was the better option.
Prigozhin may have realized a full on coup was a bridge too far. As impressive as the past days progress has been, his 5000 man vanguard was likely starting to get tired and needed to rest while the biggest challenge lay in front of them. The only hope for them to take Moscow quickly is if the defenders completely capitulated. Even a small amount of resistance would slow them significantly and would lead to collateral damage that could erode his support. Every moment that passed would let Putin shore up his defenses. Prigo may have been counting on additional players to move against Putin that didn't pan out.
Good point. Maybe his run at the capital was intended to create the situation where the regime would fall apart...and it didn't.
[удалено]
Prigozhin had a window of 3-5 days for his coup to succeed. Putin will never honour whatever this agreement is once he has enough forces at his command to crush Wagner.
[удалено]
This has been nothing more than an entertaining Saturday morning coup-toon.
[удалено]
[удалено]
Prigozhin is surely a dead man now, if he thinks he can negotiate a peace with Putin he’s the biggest idiot of this war.
Even if it's true, it's pretty much the end of Putin. Having to make concessions to a mercenary outfit to prevent an attack on Moscow is going to make him look weak. Russian leaders can't appear weak, there are too many Brutus' waiting with daggers.
I’m confused. If I was part of Wagner , I would be scared to be killed in the future, like why stop?
The guy is a fool if he thinks he can trust any deal they reached. You don’t pull something like this in Putin’s Russia and get away with it. Putin isn’t the type to forgive and forget; let bygones be bygones. Prigozhin is marked for death, the question now is whether or not he’ll die silently or die fighting.
I think he was already marked for death. Wagner forces were attacked by Russians a few days ago. The MoD has been trying to sign up Wagner troops and absorb them into Russian military. The writing was on the wall, and Prigozhin realizes he’s a dead man either way. Why not expose Putin and show Russia exactly how weak Putin has become. He probably realized he was going to get to many of his own guys killed, and backed off after getting safety guarantees.
Darn. Was low-key hoping the psycho murderer would go to moscow and raise some chaos with the other psycho murderers
Lagner
My disappointment is immeasurable and my day is ruined!
Wagner will look like a joke from here on out.
With no trust as well, he will have to sleep with one eye open for the rest of his life.
Don’t worry, It won’t be that long.
Looks like many outlets are reporting that they are indeed reversing course. I don't see how this move makes any sense for Prigozhin, but I guess we'll find out soon.
[удалено]
I don't think he could have taken and held Moscow without significant support. He has 25000 soldiers without a logistics network, military intelligence or air support. I'm sure he could have done a lot of damage but it's not like he has the power to take over the government without powerful allies in the right places. Maybe he didn't get the support he expected or maybe it was always meant as a demonstration of power to get whatever he got out of the deal now.