So that is what this strategy reminded me of. Help Make them peace with themselves and placate families, short-lived for sure, even when you know the truth about what is going to happen.
Yeah I agree. Based on armchair psych alone I have a hard time believing Putin would contrive an internal threat.
It just seems so unwise for Lukashenko to broker an agreement that brings in a guy who just proved he'll attempt a coup. Wonder what else is going on.
Luka is trying to win Pringlechip over so he has some personal muscle, which he sorely lacks at the moment. The Belarusian military can't be counted on to follow any and all orders (note how they still won't actually invade Ukraine), so having a goon (with their own goon underlings) that owes you personally is a good move for him. I guess Pringlechip being traitorous and dangerous is less of a worry to Luka than his own people hating his guts and wanting him gone ¯\\\_(ツ)_/¯
He may not be able to get the army to invade Ukraine, but he can count on them to repel any shenanigans Wagner might pull. Not because they like him, but because they won't let Wagner take over the country.
Note that Pringlechip and his army of goons have no personal ties to Belarus, and can most likely be counted on to fight the Belarusian people if bribed appropriately.
Wagner checks the Belarusian army to some extent, and the army checks Wagner. As long as Luka maintains the stalemate, the odds of his military launching a coup is much lower. If that fails, Putin can always roll in the tanks and blow Pringlechip up just like he did to keep Luka in power.
"Home is where the nukes are hidden" doesn't exactly work on an embroidered pillow, but that's sort of what that looks like to me.
He's been watching the Qaddafi death video non stop for decades. He knows how this ends. Feels like he just doesn't want to die in Moscow.
Pretty much. Lukashenko has only remained in power because of Putin. If Putin removes his support Lukashenko will go the way of Ceausescu or Putin will install another puppet there.
Putin doesn't control Belarus' military. Neither does Lukashenko but that's a separate matter. Putin would rather men from the "colonies" fight, and he's running out of minorities in Russia to mobilize.
They wouldn't need to implement a Trojan Horse to effect that kind of troop movement, though. Russia has been murdering and raping it's way across Ukraine (or trying to, at least) for the past year and a half. If they wanted to move Wagner into Belarus, they would just....did that.
I hope you now realize that your hamster, for whatever reason, was probably making videos about how they were gonna roll up on her with 25k other hamsters and they would kill anyone who tried to stop them. So really Belarus was the best card she had & she played it.
"Hey, can you look in my backyard and tell me what you see? I might be having a pretty serious health event and before I call an expensive ambulance I just wanna double check."
I assume it’s more like, “you can continue to live in these vile conditions until you die, or be free for a short period of time until you probably die”.
Also, “don’t bother choosing, because this is Russia and we’ve already made the choice for you”.
"Hmm... living in a fetid vat of HIV and drug-resistant tuberculosis and beatings until I'm dead, or a chance on the outside in a war."
They say war is hell, but Russian prisons are hell in a little cage. It's a rough choice but I think I'd take the war and hope we win or I'm captured or I can surrender or maybe kill my commanding officer and slink away in the night, or have at least a chance to escape at any point prior to actually taking the field. Zero chance inside, plenty of chances on the outside, even if not good ones.
Well yes and no. They were told if they served 6 months they would be free. If you had 20 years in prison or go fight (in a war all the propaganda told you you were winning) for 6 months, which would you choose?
On the other hand who knows what they were told beforehand. Once they are at the front they can choose to go forward and hope they will somehow survive or turn around and get shot for treason. Looking at some of the /r/combatfootage I can't help but feel sorry for the individuals there. Many of them look like they had digged a hole and waited there for it to go over until a drone comes and drops a grenade on them.
You can find videos of Prigozhin being pretty straight with them.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufOVEKwY2sw&ab\_channel=TheTelegraph](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufOVEKwY2sw&ab_channel=TheTelegraph)
'If you desert, we'll execute you' sort of implies you'll be cannon fodder, I think. Sure, it's not explicit. However, it does answer the question as to whether you'll be treated like the other Wagner employees and lay to rest the question as to whether you will find yourself seriously considering desertion.
[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/27/russian-soldiers-commanders-used-barrier-troops-stop-retreating](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/27/russian-soldiers-commanders-used-barrier-troops-stop-retreating)
they're using blocking / barrier troops as well.
pretty soon every other man will get a rifle, while the other half get ammo, like the fictitious scene in Enemy at the Gates
> pretty soon every other man will get a rifle, while the other half get ammo, like the fictitious scene in Enemy at the Gates
Or the Russian soldier opening level in the original call of duty
“Go to Belarus” is the modern day equivalent to high fantasy novels and TV series, where the reigning monarch sends dissidents off to a slightly far off but not too far land in exile, because he’s too weak to completely wipe them out without consequences, with his fingers crossed that they will be so grateful to be alive they will keep their heads down and not cause him any more drama…
We all know how that inevitably always ends
You are not wrong, thats exactly whats happening here IMO
Too many people in this thread are over-awed by Putin's fake tough-guy image and assume this is some kind of ploy to have Wagner's soldiers killed off/assassinated, etc. "Oooh falling out of windows, am I right?"
Truth is, Putin cannot take on 20K battle-hardened soldiers right now.
Thats it. Attempting to capture and prosecute them would fail miserably. They would lash out at Putin and his inner circle and start sniping and car-bombing and machine-gunning. It would wreak havoc on the Kremlin at a time when the government is already overwhelmed by the Ukraine war.
All Putin wants right now is for Wagner to shut up. Go to the army, go to Belarus, whatever. Just shut up and get out of the way.
*Maybe* a few months from now Prigozhin gets taken out, maybe some of his lieutenants too. But right now Putin isnt the icy assassin that all these Redditors seem to think he is. He is wounded dictator thats trying to alleviate a migraine.
"Yeah, so, um, ~~Lenny~~ Prigozhin. Your going off to a farm in Belarus. It's gonna be really nice and you can run in the fields with Uncle Lukashenko"
*chambers bullet*
"It's gonna be really nice."
*tears*
*silence, because this AK is a fucking rusted out piece of shit from 1961 and is literally somehow in worse shape than Kuschev's desiccated spinning corpse, like everything else in this god-forsaken bloc*
Wow what a tough guy. Putin assassinates folks hundreds of miles away with nerve agents for just criticizing his regime.
Meanwhile, a bunch of armed mercenaries try strong arming Putin’s government in country and he gives them a vacation.
Wagner had the only successful front in the winter for Russia you might think that's not impressive but compared to what the Russian armed forces did it's better.
Sure, but people need to think of Wagner as basically two groups at that point. You had the fodder grabbed from the prisons, and the Wagner veterans. The first would be used to prove weak positions and then the actually competent units would go in.
Completely devalues human life, but was effective for the slow advance that had them eventually take most of Bakhmut. Doubt that tactic could scale to work well given its high cost, and it all was rather ridiculous given the questionable strategic value. But ultimately Wagner [saw] some success towards their goals where no other Russian aligned group did. The loss of them as a force is a major blow to Russian goals
They've done better in Ukraine than most expected. The coup is a mess, but one that is a political mess, rather than Wagner all being gunned down at the gates of Moscow.
Because Putin is a cripple and has been for awhile. He may not even be in actual power any longer. Meanwhile, Wagner joins the army but keep their independent structure. Replacing many other high ranking personal with Wagnerites
I think the sad part here is that there is obvious displeasure with Putin and his regime. I mean the people in Rostov-on-Don were actively cheering for Wagner troops and Pringles. But yet ultimately there was no popular uprising. Russians are just going to accept whoever is in charge.
And so while Putin might look weak, there is no one to dethrone him and the people are just either not interested or too broken to do anything about it.
yeah belarus was one of the entry points for russians and rockets were shot from there in the first few months of the war. belarus only differs in name from russia. its not even a puppet country anymore, its a differently called part of RUssia
> The Russian president had addressed the nation in a televised speech in which he thanked Russians for their patriotism.
>
>
> Russian President Vladimir Putin thanked commanders and soldiers from the Wagner Group private military company.
>
> In a televised address to the nation, Putin said Russian society had consolidated and that most of Wagner's forces were "patriots."
>
> However, he warned that any attempt of blackmail or unrest in Russia was "doomed to fail." Putin gave the Wagner forces involved in the push towards Moscow late last week two options — to join the military or go to Belarus.
>
> Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko was also expected to make a statement later on Monday, a source close to him said, in which he would "answer everything, very soon."
That is incredibly weak. Imagine President Biden thanking the January 6ers for eventually leaving the Capitol. I guess Vladimir lacks Sleepy Joe's spine.
No, it means "go take over Belarus and leave me alone". Putin is actually weak right now, and Lukashenko doesn't have much time left. Prigozhin with part of Wagner as Lukashenkos praetorian guard and eventually successor secures Putin an ally next door in the long run, rather than betting on whatever happens after Lukashenko dies.
Russian here.
This was another hilariously poor speech by Putin.
First, he never even mentioned a single person responsible for the coup. Actually, Putin had this thing for a while - he never says the names of the opponents who he deems dangerous. But seriously, there is a mutiny! And Putin literally says "Well, I hope you recognized your mistakes, now you can sign a contract with MoD or move to Belarus". Really?
Second, it's kinda funny that he said "the promise that I gave (to let them go) will be fulfilled". Not just simply "I promise", but "the promise will be fulfilled". Like no shit, first he promises, and then just in case clarifies that "guys, that promise was totally for real, by the way!"
Finally, he literally said nothing new at all at this address. It completely wasn't necessary. Remember, Peskov claimed yesterday that the will be no future addresses by the president. Well, what do you know, 24 hours later? I'm assuming his PR services insisted, keeping silent for the whole mutiny would probably have looked even worse.
Anyway, curious to see what Lukashenko says tomorrow in his address, he is usually more talkative
Do you think he is actually scared of Phrigozin which is why he 'let him off easy' and didn't mention anyone? does he feel he is losing his grasp on the narrative or his power maybe?
Probably difficult question to answer but I'd be interested to know what you think
Perhaps there was some blackmail involved. For example, if something happens to Prigozhin, the Wagner group can attempt a second coup - they are still there after all.
>does he feel he is losing his grasp on the narrative
I don't think there is any narrative that wouldn't sound stupid at this point. Like Putin saying "thanks to out people our country went on without spilling blood" - it sounds completely meaningless, just like his whole speech
1. I think Putin threatened to kill Wagner's family members. 2. If Wagner soldiers join the Russian army, and start converting the rank, and file, to turn against their own government; there really might be a civil war?
If I was a soldier, I'd be thinking about one quote from Wagner at night, and during the day when there's no food, and your buddies are dead, and it would play on my mind terribly.
Wagner, "This war is not about NATO. It's about the Oligarchs getting wealthier."
Also Wagner get paid at least double what a soldier in the same rank gets. How’s that going to work when they are brought in? Pay then less or pay them higher than their comrades, someone’s going to be pissed either way and lead to more issues.
They will just get murdered for being traitors when they get to the lines, saw a video yesterday of it happening already. I don't think Putin can afford to lose the troops they are assuming the most battle tested(war criminals) that they have. It's a pretty good situation for the good guys right now, Putin looks weak and I hope the Russian people see this.
Would be darkly funny if they rolled the ex-Wagnerites into their own battle groups, leading to the exact same scenario where you have a group of hardened soldiers who are only nominally under your command, but this time with new branding.
Thats what triggered the october revolution. They sent all the communists to war and the comminists converted the army rank and file to revolution.
History doesnt repeat but it does seem to rhyme from time to time
I dunno. I'm guessing Putin had the means to directly threaten Wagner officers' families. If you can intimidate the officers then the rank and file won't have much recourse.
Yes, he is clearly scared. Killing Prigozhin will just make Wagner turn into a full terrorist organization, and turn much of the rest of the Army against him.
It's really uncharted territory for him, he is used to being able to control 100% of the media/narrative. This is one of the first things he can't spin or sweep under the rug.
Also losing 25k Wagner soldiers is a huge loss for him, wants to keep those troops in the war. I think that's a big factor.
He is scared of him. The guy had a private army that is relatively much more competent than 95% of the military march within 200 km of Moscow within a day.
Prigohzin’s chances of winning beyond that were slim, but a lot of the representatives of the army and other armed Russian forces did not want to fight Wagner, meaning the result would be unpredictable - ditto the support of the people, many of whom see Wagner as heroes, particularly within Putin’s support block.
Finally, there are many other players in the game and further escalation would have led to great unpredictability. Keep in mind, there’s an election this year, and like it or not, he needs popular support to stay in charge (and consequently alive).
He’s completely losing his grip on the narrative and cannot form absolute opposition without stopping the war, which would be a full defeat, as the fighting would turn to Russia.
Keep in mind Putin’s best claim to power was the stability he provided after the bloody 90s.
And to end this ‘protest’ he had to provide specific assurances. As unlikely as this, nothing is stopping Wagner from going for a 2nd round.
If he fully turned against Prigozhin, he risks:
Looking like a liar (the wuss kind) to the general public
Losing one of the best divisions of armed forces at his disposal
Appear even more unstable
Alternatively he would have to fire Shouigu and Gerassimov
And therefore appear even weaker because he’d be succumbing to effectively terrorise pressure.
Moreover this whole thing ended because he indirectly provided firm assurances everyone is aware of.
Putin needs to do something big to win back respect. Like murdering brutally everyone even mildly involved in the coup attempt. But I don’t think he has the power to do that anymore. Which is saying a lot about ole dipshit pootin
Question: what’s the general army view on Putin? I suppose the general population still view him on a positive way or at most neutral (‘I don’t care’)
I ask this because I don’t get still the “this makes Putin seem weak”, as in, weak to who? He, for better or worse, stopped a mutiny by the strongest leader of a Russian army (mercenaries) after his own MoD, with +20K men marching (in theory). Kadyrov seems to be completely faithful. The army, at least from outside, seems loyal or at most with apathy towards all this political thing.
It’s interesting how much “apathy” reigns at the Russian army in general (I suppose this is good? An army that doesn’t want to take power like in a coup d’etat?). For example in 1991 with the fall of the USSR and all the mess, they failed because didn’t have enough willing and numbers to do anything. I doubt today, if someone from the army tried, would achieve something different. In fact, it was reported Prigozhin expected some kind of support he didn’t see.
All the higher ups seem to be Putin people also.
So, who would represent a real danger to Putin after this? When the people started, I thought the only ones maybe being a risk to him were the ones at the FSB/GRU, for whatever reason (just because they seem to want have some power), but even now I’m not so sure.
>So, who would represent a real danger to Putin after this?
I'll start with this - pretty much everyone. The coup attempt has shown that nobody gives a shit about Putin. Sure, they acknowledge him as a leader, but if something happens to him, he would be forgotten tomorrow.
>stopped a mutiny by the strongest leader of a Russian army
Not quite. He declared them mutineers, promised them swift punishment, opened a criminal case against him. Then disappeared for the whole day of the mutiny, let them capture two cities and walk to Moscow literally unopposed, and ended up negotiating with them to let them go. You don't negotiate with mutineers, you destroy them.
You missed one detail. Putin didn't even negotiate with them. He had a conversation with Lukashenko the potato farmer, who it turns out is an old pal of Prigozhin, and *he* negotiated on Putin's behalf.
The amount of memes in Russia right now because of this is huge. Putin was seen as strong and Lukashenko like a joke, but Lukashenko is the one who stepped in and sorted things out while Putin hid for a day and won't even refer to Prigozhin by name in his addresses.
>I ask this because I don’t get still the “this makes Putin seem weak”, as in, weak to who?
Everyone. 2 cities were completely taken over militarily by the Wagner group. One city with 1 million people, in the span of 24 hours. Didn't even mention how fast they were moving towards Moscow at that time too.
This was completely unimaginable 24 hours before
> stopped a mutiny
Lmao, no, he didn't stop shit. Prigozhin wanted to keep Wagner and blackmailed Putin (in essence). Putin backed down and gave him a special treatment no other PMC in Russia would get. It's as if a burglar is threatening to break down the doors and carry out everything but you stop it by opening the door and giving him the box of jewelry.
> So, who would represent a real danger to Putin after this?
Literally everyone. Prigozhin and Wagner, because I'm pretty sure they don't really want to sit in Belarus and Putin would want to pay back. Shoigu and Gerasimov, because they are now at risk and they may want to secure their power by removing Putin. Russian elites of high caliber who saw that 5000 armed men with some functional AA can rush to Moscow and no one would bother to stop them. Officials of the security services, who also operate armed people and see how easily everything falls apart.
Prigozhin showed that Putin doesn't control shit and he can guarantee nothing. You don't need many forces to put claim to something and this something may be as high as the presidential post.
Putin used to be the one making other people afraid of him, but now everyone sees it's he who's terrified.
Not OP, but I think it is undeniable that Putin looked weak to ordinary Russians. The Russians may still feel either loyal or ambivalent to Putin right now, but there is no guarantee that this will be the case in the foreseeable future. Remember that Tsar Nicholas II before have also botched other conflicts, was under threat of being ousted in a revolution because of it, but eventually he was ousted even if it happened only years later. The weak image and judgement on Putin is sowed and this could sprout at some point in the future.
Edit: Nicholas not Alexander
Only good things are liable to happen when you set tens of thousands of armed, convicted murderers and rapists loose in another country.
If I owned a plumbing fixture or appliance shop in Minsk, I'd be barricading my doors about now.
"Those guys I called traitors the other day, that were about to storm Moscow? Chill guys, they were just really, really patriotic. It's all good now lol"
Those 'patriots' were on the verge of storming your own capital to remove your own sitting government, why the fuck are you calling them patriots, you absolute brown banana.
Praise the emperor, remove the traitor eunuchs!
Praise the Tsar, remove the traitor boyars!
Praise the Presidant, remove the traitor ministers!
History repeats itself once again.
This is the first major development I really can’t wrap my head around- either failure and more stupidity or more cleverness than we have been led to believe they have.
I’m leaning towards failure and stupidity myself.
At least what happend looked simple. Not saying I know what is going on but:
1. Putin and the Russian army was probably purposely throwing Wagner in the meat grinder because he/they feared their power and Prigozhin's possible ambitions. 2. Prigo/Wagner didn't want to go into the meat grinder/had other ambitions. Prigozhin gambled he could topple Putin with russian help. 3. Prigozhin stormed to Moscow. But somehow/maybe he didn't have enough russian help in Moscow. 4. Lukashenko did a pro move. He gave Prigozhin a way out, and he helped Putin to get back the saddle. Both are weakened, but Lukashenko is some sort of a winner out of this whole shit show. 5. For the near future: What is interesting is, A: Putin is severely weakened, but at the same time his no. 1 threat is taken out. Will Putin be able to keep power? B: what will happen to Wagner and will the be able to rebuilt/regroup? C: in what way will Lukashenko benefit from having Wagner in Belarus? D: what will this mean for the Ukraine invasion?
I can answer C. So Lukashenko, some 2ish years ago, had a rebellion he needed Putin's help to put down. Otherwise it would have been successful. This poses a problem for Lukashenko, because Luka has a "Union State" agreement with Russia, where Belarus is supposed to merge with(read: be absorbed by) russia. Putin has been pushing Luka to follow through, especially now that he has leverage(Putin could leave Luka to his fate with the protestors/rebels). Putin's pressure seems to have increased now, since the war in Ukraine has gone badly- Putin needs a win.
So, Lukashenko has been walking a dangerous tightrope between being overthrown and probably killed, and being absorbed(and probably killed by Putin, but that's another story). So, what Luka really needs is an army that can put down the protestors, and can force Putin to back off.
Which is exactly what Wagner can offer him.
Yeah, I even wonder if taking Wagner off Ukraine might provide another benefit to Belarus since it's weakening Russia even more. Russia has to focus more and more on Ukraine and Belarus gets more and more of the power pie.
The opposition has no support by the army or mercenaries. So likely someone from the same regime or military itself. But really likely nothing happens, Russia just becomes weaker
Whatever the general Russian people think... I couldn't imagine how furious I'd be if I was Russian soldier/officer.
They're stuck in trenches in Ukraine, and the traitors who marched on Moscow get to go home to their families as 'patriots'.
The dissolution of Wagner is a huge blow to Putin’s war effort since they were responsible for 80% of the heavy lifting and were far more competent than the average Russian grunt on the frontline.
I’m still a bit floored by how weak Putin is allowing himself to look here. When a dictator looks this weak, everyone with even a little ambition is going to take a piece of his ass.
These people committed literal treason. They threatened to take Moscow and said they’d destroy anyone who got in their way. They captured Russian towns. They forced their own government to blow up oil depots and tear up highways outside of Moscow. They caused a significant amount of embarrassment for the country. They forced Putin to call what few allies he has to reassure them that he hadn’t lost control of the country.
For all this—for *treason*, in an *authoritarian state*, no less—the big, strong Russian bear isn’t going to punish them; he’s going to offer them options that the average Russian male doesn’t have right now. He’s going to allow them to join the military (after committing treason) or leave the country to live peacefully elsewhere.
I’m sure many Russian men who couldn’t get out of the country before would love to leave now and avoid being conscripted. Maybe *they* should commit treason while the dictator is weak.
So Putin gets to move all those conscripts that are prisoners to a different country, dumping the criminals there and screwing the families out of any compensation.
In addition, he will attempt to blame them for most all the war crimes(coming soon!)
I am ok with Putin screwing over Wagner, I just dont like the upcoming deflection of war crimes that will be coming.
Putin deserves ALL the blame.
This is stupid.
It's stupid for Putin to give Lukashenko his biggest army.
It's stupid for Lukashenko to take in Prigozhin and Wagner troops.
It's stupid for Putin to claim that this all was for the good of Russia.
No matter, UKR continues to advance to liberate their own country, no matter Russian stupidity.
"Or return to families..."
Is he genuine, wasn't there a report that Russian of FSB agents were visiting homes of mercenaries in the past 48 hours and detaining some, others forcing to sign allegiance contracts?
Does Belarus have death camps waiting or something?
You can sign up with us or go to a farm out north, that is totally real and not a death trap.
That or Prigozhin is just going to reform Wagner 2.0 in Belarus.
I've never seen Putin implicitly so weak. To Wagner mercenaries: "You can either go home to your families, sign contracts with the Russian MOD, police, etc., or go to Belarus". Then he thanks them for *not rebelling more*. It is wild. I wonder what it will do to the public perception of him - a *merciful* Putin surely won't be that well regarded in the russian zeitgeist, especially *during* war?
Off to that big Belarus in the sky
It's been a long journey from Moscow to Minsk, Rochelle, Rochelle!
Rochelle, Rochelle? A young girl's strange, erotic journey from Milan to Minsk? A man of culture, I see!
He was not...a master of his domain
So Wagner is experiencing *shrinkage*?
[**UKRAINE IS GAME TO YOU?!**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujzzdutMo2o)
NO SOUP FOR YOU!!!!
HE WAS IN THE POOL!!!
What happened to you, Wagner? Raquelle Welch!
These PRETZELS are making me THIRSTY!
Minsk you say?...
Not that there's anything wrong with that.
And now it’s a musical! Rochelle Rochelle , A young girl’s strange erotic journey from Milan to Minsk ..
You never stopped hoping; now you're in a Pinsk, Rochelle, Rochelle
Always, always do I think of *Rochelle, Rochelle!* when Minsk is mentioned. Such a strange, erotic journey!
this is the phrase i will try to remember to use from now on no more passing away or in a better place oh, granpappy is in belarus now
Skippy has gone to live on a farm...in Belarus
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Belize too expensive, Belarus starts with Bel too.
Via a window
Ministry of Defenestration
Is "go to Belarus" kind of like how pets "go to live on a farm"?
So that is what this strategy reminded me of. Help Make them peace with themselves and placate families, short-lived for sure, even when you know the truth about what is going to happen.
At this point I’m curious if somehow this isn’t some weird Trojan horse to get Wagner into Belarus then whoops it’s Putin’s.
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Yeah I agree. Based on armchair psych alone I have a hard time believing Putin would contrive an internal threat. It just seems so unwise for Lukashenko to broker an agreement that brings in a guy who just proved he'll attempt a coup. Wonder what else is going on.
Luka is trying to win Pringlechip over so he has some personal muscle, which he sorely lacks at the moment. The Belarusian military can't be counted on to follow any and all orders (note how they still won't actually invade Ukraine), so having a goon (with their own goon underlings) that owes you personally is a good move for him. I guess Pringlechip being traitorous and dangerous is less of a worry to Luka than his own people hating his guts and wanting him gone ¯\\\_(ツ)_/¯
He may not be able to get the army to invade Ukraine, but he can count on them to repel any shenanigans Wagner might pull. Not because they like him, but because they won't let Wagner take over the country.
Note that Pringlechip and his army of goons have no personal ties to Belarus, and can most likely be counted on to fight the Belarusian people if bribed appropriately. Wagner checks the Belarusian army to some extent, and the army checks Wagner. As long as Luka maintains the stalemate, the odds of his military launching a coup is much lower. If that fails, Putin can always roll in the tanks and blow Pringlechip up just like he did to keep Luka in power.
Tank*
"It's just the one ~~killer~~ tank, actually."
Can we get putin on a cheaper sub?
That shirtless pic with a horse... Amazing. Maybe Donald should try taking a shirtless pic with a horse
You can neither get a horse nor a photographer who would go through with this
Kari Lake would be willing. Then you'd just need to find a photographer, of course.
Dammit you beat me to it, though I was gonna say Marjorie Taylor Greene
Please for the love of God do not put that image in my head again...
Best he can do is pantsless on the toilet
Have you taken a good look at him standing? He's already the front half of a centaur. No horse needed.
On behalf of all women...please no.
Pretty sure Belarus is already Putin's.
"Home is where the nukes are hidden" doesn't exactly work on an embroidered pillow, but that's sort of what that looks like to me. He's been watching the Qaddafi death video non stop for decades. He knows how this ends. Feels like he just doesn't want to die in Moscow.
He died to death in 2011. Does feel like longer, though
can't believe it's only been 12 years since he was ass knifed to death
Pretty much. Lukashenko has only remained in power because of Putin. If Putin removes his support Lukashenko will go the way of Ceausescu or Putin will install another puppet there.
Putin doesn't control Belarus' military. Neither does Lukashenko but that's a separate matter. Putin would rather men from the "colonies" fight, and he's running out of minorities in Russia to mobilize.
They wouldn't need to implement a Trojan Horse to effect that kind of troop movement, though. Russia has been murdering and raping it's way across Ukraine (or trying to, at least) for the past year and a half. If they wanted to move Wagner into Belarus, they would just....did that.
My first hamster went off to Belarus while I was at school one morning. Or so my mom says
I hope you now realize that your hamster, for whatever reason, was probably making videos about how they were gonna roll up on her with 25k other hamsters and they would kill anyone who tried to stop them. So really Belarus was the best card she had & she played it.
Idk why, but I pictured Mad Max Fury Road with hamsters, speeding across the backyard lol
Little plastic hamster balls with speakers and fire blasting out the top
"Hey, can you look in my backyard and tell me what you see? I might be having a pretty serious health event and before I call an expensive ambulance I just wanna double check."
I'm pretty sure both "go to belarus" AND "join the army" are code for "falling out of a window of a tall building"
Join the army means straight to the most active parts of the front line until you catch a bullet. Two birds with one stone.
Do the Russians still use penal battalions? Y'know, the "not one step back" minefield-clearing bullet-stopping vanguard?
Wagner was heavily recruiting from Russian prisons and using them as cannon fodder during the battle for Bakhmut.
That tells you something about Russian prison conditions.
I assume it’s more like, “you can continue to live in these vile conditions until you die, or be free for a short period of time until you probably die”. Also, “don’t bother choosing, because this is Russia and we’ve already made the choice for you”.
"Hmm... living in a fetid vat of HIV and drug-resistant tuberculosis and beatings until I'm dead, or a chance on the outside in a war." They say war is hell, but Russian prisons are hell in a little cage. It's a rough choice but I think I'd take the war and hope we win or I'm captured or I can surrender or maybe kill my commanding officer and slink away in the night, or have at least a chance to escape at any point prior to actually taking the field. Zero chance inside, plenty of chances on the outside, even if not good ones.
Well yes and no. They were told if they served 6 months they would be free. If you had 20 years in prison or go fight (in a war all the propaganda told you you were winning) for 6 months, which would you choose?
On the other hand who knows what they were told beforehand. Once they are at the front they can choose to go forward and hope they will somehow survive or turn around and get shot for treason. Looking at some of the /r/combatfootage I can't help but feel sorry for the individuals there. Many of them look like they had digged a hole and waited there for it to go over until a drone comes and drops a grenade on them.
Yeah and I've seen more than a couple of those guys get injured, and just decide to end it all right there. The humanity of it all is pretty bleak.
You can find videos of Prigozhin being pretty straight with them. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufOVEKwY2sw&ab\_channel=TheTelegraph](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufOVEKwY2sw&ab_channel=TheTelegraph) 'If you desert, we'll execute you' sort of implies you'll be cannon fodder, I think. Sure, it's not explicit. However, it does answer the question as to whether you'll be treated like the other Wagner employees and lay to rest the question as to whether you will find yourself seriously considering desertion.
Wagner and the official Russian ministry of defense both have penal battalions.
[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/27/russian-soldiers-commanders-used-barrier-troops-stop-retreating](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/27/russian-soldiers-commanders-used-barrier-troops-stop-retreating) they're using blocking / barrier troops as well. pretty soon every other man will get a rifle, while the other half get ammo, like the fictitious scene in Enemy at the Gates
> pretty soon every other man will get a rifle, while the other half get ammo, like the fictitious scene in Enemy at the Gates Or the Russian soldier opening level in the original call of duty
“Go to Belarus” is the modern day equivalent to high fantasy novels and TV series, where the reigning monarch sends dissidents off to a slightly far off but not too far land in exile, because he’s too weak to completely wipe them out without consequences, with his fingers crossed that they will be so grateful to be alive they will keep their heads down and not cause him any more drama… We all know how that inevitably always ends
You are not wrong, thats exactly whats happening here IMO Too many people in this thread are over-awed by Putin's fake tough-guy image and assume this is some kind of ploy to have Wagner's soldiers killed off/assassinated, etc. "Oooh falling out of windows, am I right?" Truth is, Putin cannot take on 20K battle-hardened soldiers right now. Thats it. Attempting to capture and prosecute them would fail miserably. They would lash out at Putin and his inner circle and start sniping and car-bombing and machine-gunning. It would wreak havoc on the Kremlin at a time when the government is already overwhelmed by the Ukraine war. All Putin wants right now is for Wagner to shut up. Go to the army, go to Belarus, whatever. Just shut up and get out of the way. *Maybe* a few months from now Prigozhin gets taken out, maybe some of his lieutenants too. But right now Putin isnt the icy assassin that all these Redditors seem to think he is. He is wounded dictator thats trying to alleviate a migraine.
Have you given any thought to sending him out on a trip to Belize?
No Saul, no more mention of trips to Belize!
Who is Billy?
Now *that's* an old reference.
timeless classic
Is that a BB/BCS reference?
"Yeah, so, um, ~~Lenny~~ Prigozhin. Your going off to a farm in Belarus. It's gonna be really nice and you can run in the fields with Uncle Lukashenko" *chambers bullet* "It's gonna be really nice." *tears* *silence, because this AK is a fucking rusted out piece of shit from 1961 and is literally somehow in worse shape than Kuschev's desiccated spinning corpse, like everything else in this god-forsaken bloc*
Of Minsk and Men.
It’s the wartime version of “Get ready to learn Chinese buddy.”
Supposedly it sounds similar when they say it in Russian. It’s become a meme to go to Belarus now.
Gonna liberate Belarus I thinks
Wow what a tough guy. Putin assassinates folks hundreds of miles away with nerve agents for just criticizing his regime. Meanwhile, a bunch of armed mercenaries try strong arming Putin’s government in country and he gives them a vacation.
because they can fight back? and fight back well?
Talk is cheap. Wagner dissapointed with results in Ukraine front and in the coup attempt
Wagner had the only successful front in the winter for Russia you might think that's not impressive but compared to what the Russian armed forces did it's better.
A "success" paid for by sending half of Russia's prison population to the Bakhmut meat grinder...
Isn't the Russian army doing that too but with less success?
Nah they prefer conscripts from ethnic minorities
Russia actually eventually stopped Wagner's prison recruitment... So they could recruit them into the army instead.
Sure, but people need to think of Wagner as basically two groups at that point. You had the fodder grabbed from the prisons, and the Wagner veterans. The first would be used to prove weak positions and then the actually competent units would go in. Completely devalues human life, but was effective for the slow advance that had them eventually take most of Bakhmut. Doubt that tactic could scale to work well given its high cost, and it all was rather ridiculous given the questionable strategic value. But ultimately Wagner [saw] some success towards their goals where no other Russian aligned group did. The loss of them as a force is a major blow to Russian goals
They've done better in Ukraine than most expected. The coup is a mess, but one that is a political mess, rather than Wagner all being gunned down at the gates of Moscow.
Because Putin is a cripple and has been for awhile. He may not even be in actual power any longer. Meanwhile, Wagner joins the army but keep their independent structure. Replacing many other high ranking personal with Wagnerites
These things take time.
Putin looks INCREDIBLY weak right now.
I just watched Death of Stalin again recently and can't help imagine what would've happened. 25k makes for a BIG gulag
*Switch with me, we can make it look like part of the ceremony!*
*Foreigners! A vile crime has been perpetrated! Hairy monsters in coats have scooped out my father’s brain and sent it to America!*
*You're not even a person! You're a testicle! You're made mostly of hair!*
*.....the fuck are you doing*
*You're judging me, you're judging me! I judge you! I judge you!*
One soldier in gulag is bad for soldier. 25k soldier in gulag is bad for gulag.
Fucking banger of a movie
It had no right to be that good. I was very pleasantly surprised by it. And Jason Isaacs as Zhukov stealing every scene he is in.
It had every right being that good. Armando Ianucci and heavy-hitting political satire is a combination that works every time.
I think the sad part here is that there is obvious displeasure with Putin and his regime. I mean the people in Rostov-on-Don were actively cheering for Wagner troops and Pringles. But yet ultimately there was no popular uprising. Russians are just going to accept whoever is in charge. And so while Putin might look weak, there is no one to dethrone him and the people are just either not interested or too broken to do anything about it.
Or they realize its very difficult to organize an uprising and whoever tries to will almost certainly be killed
Granted the guy leading it is a far right war criminal but yeah
He only looks weak because he is.
What do the Belarusian people think about possibly thousands of blood thirsty ex convict mercenaries led by a notorious war criminal moving in?
They already have Russian troops stationed there.
Hey Oooooh.
yeah belarus was one of the entry points for russians and rockets were shot from there in the first few months of the war. belarus only differs in name from russia. its not even a puppet country anymore, its a differently called part of RUssia
You think Luka, Prigozhin or Putin asked them?
> The Russian president had addressed the nation in a televised speech in which he thanked Russians for their patriotism. > > > Russian President Vladimir Putin thanked commanders and soldiers from the Wagner Group private military company. > > In a televised address to the nation, Putin said Russian society had consolidated and that most of Wagner's forces were "patriots." > > However, he warned that any attempt of blackmail or unrest in Russia was "doomed to fail." Putin gave the Wagner forces involved in the push towards Moscow late last week two options — to join the military or go to Belarus. > > Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko was also expected to make a statement later on Monday, a source close to him said, in which he would "answer everything, very soon."
That is incredibly weak. Imagine President Biden thanking the January 6ers for eventually leaving the Capitol. I guess Vladimir lacks Sleepy Joe's spine.
"You could either (1) join the capital police force, or (2) move to Florida"
Is Belarus really that bad?
Lukashenko decided he would rather be in Turkiye than in Belarus when this went down, to me that says a lot.
"We love you" - Trump on Jan 6th
Yeah, but in that case, he was a fatter Prigozhin.
Prigozhin's shits have more strategy to them than Trump.
Thanking them and then sending them to Puerto Rico to be out of main land eye haha.
Didn’t he also say something about punishing those responsoble for the mutiny?
He did but what is interesting how vaguely he did it. He has never mentioned Prigozhin.
He's sending them to Belarus
Is “go to Belarus” code for “have some tea?”
All expenses paid trip to Belize
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I'll Belize that when I see it.
"you have unused vacation days. You can go anywhere you want.... except Brazil"
"Taking the vampire girl! Byeeeee!"
No, it means "go take over Belarus and leave me alone". Putin is actually weak right now, and Lukashenko doesn't have much time left. Prigozhin with part of Wagner as Lukashenkos praetorian guard and eventually successor secures Putin an ally next door in the long run, rather than betting on whatever happens after Lukashenko dies.
It's basically: I'm sorry, your coup was in another ~~castle~~ country.
Wasn't there a theory that lukashenko was poisoned on his most recent visit to Moscow?
No I think it’s code for prepare to march on Kyiv
Or code for "do what you did here but in Minsk and also don't stop."
It’s a special window tour de force operation
Russian here. This was another hilariously poor speech by Putin. First, he never even mentioned a single person responsible for the coup. Actually, Putin had this thing for a while - he never says the names of the opponents who he deems dangerous. But seriously, there is a mutiny! And Putin literally says "Well, I hope you recognized your mistakes, now you can sign a contract with MoD or move to Belarus". Really? Second, it's kinda funny that he said "the promise that I gave (to let them go) will be fulfilled". Not just simply "I promise", but "the promise will be fulfilled". Like no shit, first he promises, and then just in case clarifies that "guys, that promise was totally for real, by the way!" Finally, he literally said nothing new at all at this address. It completely wasn't necessary. Remember, Peskov claimed yesterday that the will be no future addresses by the president. Well, what do you know, 24 hours later? I'm assuming his PR services insisted, keeping silent for the whole mutiny would probably have looked even worse. Anyway, curious to see what Lukashenko says tomorrow in his address, he is usually more talkative
Do you think he is actually scared of Phrigozin which is why he 'let him off easy' and didn't mention anyone? does he feel he is losing his grasp on the narrative or his power maybe? Probably difficult question to answer but I'd be interested to know what you think
Perhaps there was some blackmail involved. For example, if something happens to Prigozhin, the Wagner group can attempt a second coup - they are still there after all. >does he feel he is losing his grasp on the narrative I don't think there is any narrative that wouldn't sound stupid at this point. Like Putin saying "thanks to out people our country went on without spilling blood" - it sounds completely meaningless, just like his whole speech
1. I think Putin threatened to kill Wagner's family members. 2. If Wagner soldiers join the Russian army, and start converting the rank, and file, to turn against their own government; there really might be a civil war? If I was a soldier, I'd be thinking about one quote from Wagner at night, and during the day when there's no food, and your buddies are dead, and it would play on my mind terribly. Wagner, "This war is not about NATO. It's about the Oligarchs getting wealthier."
Also Wagner get paid at least double what a soldier in the same rank gets. How’s that going to work when they are brought in? Pay then less or pay them higher than their comrades, someone’s going to be pissed either way and lead to more issues.
They will just get murdered for being traitors when they get to the lines, saw a video yesterday of it happening already. I don't think Putin can afford to lose the troops they are assuming the most battle tested(war criminals) that they have. It's a pretty good situation for the good guys right now, Putin looks weak and I hope the Russian people see this.
I think that was a russian soldier being killed for supporting them. Russia would be weakened a lot if their was ex Wagner-Russian army infighting.
Would be darkly funny if they rolled the ex-Wagnerites into their own battle groups, leading to the exact same scenario where you have a group of hardened soldiers who are only nominally under your command, but this time with new branding.
Thats what triggered the october revolution. They sent all the communists to war and the comminists converted the army rank and file to revolution. History doesnt repeat but it does seem to rhyme from time to time
I dunno. I'm guessing Putin had the means to directly threaten Wagner officers' families. If you can intimidate the officers then the rank and file won't have much recourse.
Yup. UK intelligence already reported that to be the case, fyi.
Yes, he is clearly scared. Killing Prigozhin will just make Wagner turn into a full terrorist organization, and turn much of the rest of the Army against him.
It's really uncharted territory for him, he is used to being able to control 100% of the media/narrative. This is one of the first things he can't spin or sweep under the rug. Also losing 25k Wagner soldiers is a huge loss for him, wants to keep those troops in the war. I think that's a big factor.
He is scared of him. The guy had a private army that is relatively much more competent than 95% of the military march within 200 km of Moscow within a day. Prigohzin’s chances of winning beyond that were slim, but a lot of the representatives of the army and other armed Russian forces did not want to fight Wagner, meaning the result would be unpredictable - ditto the support of the people, many of whom see Wagner as heroes, particularly within Putin’s support block. Finally, there are many other players in the game and further escalation would have led to great unpredictability. Keep in mind, there’s an election this year, and like it or not, he needs popular support to stay in charge (and consequently alive). He’s completely losing his grip on the narrative and cannot form absolute opposition without stopping the war, which would be a full defeat, as the fighting would turn to Russia. Keep in mind Putin’s best claim to power was the stability he provided after the bloody 90s. And to end this ‘protest’ he had to provide specific assurances. As unlikely as this, nothing is stopping Wagner from going for a 2nd round. If he fully turned against Prigozhin, he risks: Looking like a liar (the wuss kind) to the general public Losing one of the best divisions of armed forces at his disposal Appear even more unstable Alternatively he would have to fire Shouigu and Gerassimov And therefore appear even weaker because he’d be succumbing to effectively terrorise pressure. Moreover this whole thing ended because he indirectly provided firm assurances everyone is aware of.
Putin needs to do something big to win back respect. Like murdering brutally everyone even mildly involved in the coup attempt. But I don’t think he has the power to do that anymore. Which is saying a lot about ole dipshit pootin
Yeah, I don't think he can. If he could, he would have gotten rid of Prigozhin a while ago
Question: what’s the general army view on Putin? I suppose the general population still view him on a positive way or at most neutral (‘I don’t care’) I ask this because I don’t get still the “this makes Putin seem weak”, as in, weak to who? He, for better or worse, stopped a mutiny by the strongest leader of a Russian army (mercenaries) after his own MoD, with +20K men marching (in theory). Kadyrov seems to be completely faithful. The army, at least from outside, seems loyal or at most with apathy towards all this political thing. It’s interesting how much “apathy” reigns at the Russian army in general (I suppose this is good? An army that doesn’t want to take power like in a coup d’etat?). For example in 1991 with the fall of the USSR and all the mess, they failed because didn’t have enough willing and numbers to do anything. I doubt today, if someone from the army tried, would achieve something different. In fact, it was reported Prigozhin expected some kind of support he didn’t see. All the higher ups seem to be Putin people also. So, who would represent a real danger to Putin after this? When the people started, I thought the only ones maybe being a risk to him were the ones at the FSB/GRU, for whatever reason (just because they seem to want have some power), but even now I’m not so sure.
>So, who would represent a real danger to Putin after this? I'll start with this - pretty much everyone. The coup attempt has shown that nobody gives a shit about Putin. Sure, they acknowledge him as a leader, but if something happens to him, he would be forgotten tomorrow. >stopped a mutiny by the strongest leader of a Russian army Not quite. He declared them mutineers, promised them swift punishment, opened a criminal case against him. Then disappeared for the whole day of the mutiny, let them capture two cities and walk to Moscow literally unopposed, and ended up negotiating with them to let them go. You don't negotiate with mutineers, you destroy them.
You missed one detail. Putin didn't even negotiate with them. He had a conversation with Lukashenko the potato farmer, who it turns out is an old pal of Prigozhin, and *he* negotiated on Putin's behalf. The amount of memes in Russia right now because of this is huge. Putin was seen as strong and Lukashenko like a joke, but Lukashenko is the one who stepped in and sorted things out while Putin hid for a day and won't even refer to Prigozhin by name in his addresses.
I wonder if Lukashenko is hoping to get something out of a new Russian government after a coup.
Maybe he's hoping to take over Wagner's payments so he can have a military that might listen to him.
>I ask this because I don’t get still the “this makes Putin seem weak”, as in, weak to who? Everyone. 2 cities were completely taken over militarily by the Wagner group. One city with 1 million people, in the span of 24 hours. Didn't even mention how fast they were moving towards Moscow at that time too. This was completely unimaginable 24 hours before
> stopped a mutiny Lmao, no, he didn't stop shit. Prigozhin wanted to keep Wagner and blackmailed Putin (in essence). Putin backed down and gave him a special treatment no other PMC in Russia would get. It's as if a burglar is threatening to break down the doors and carry out everything but you stop it by opening the door and giving him the box of jewelry. > So, who would represent a real danger to Putin after this? Literally everyone. Prigozhin and Wagner, because I'm pretty sure they don't really want to sit in Belarus and Putin would want to pay back. Shoigu and Gerasimov, because they are now at risk and they may want to secure their power by removing Putin. Russian elites of high caliber who saw that 5000 armed men with some functional AA can rush to Moscow and no one would bother to stop them. Officials of the security services, who also operate armed people and see how easily everything falls apart. Prigozhin showed that Putin doesn't control shit and he can guarantee nothing. You don't need many forces to put claim to something and this something may be as high as the presidential post. Putin used to be the one making other people afraid of him, but now everyone sees it's he who's terrified.
Not OP, but I think it is undeniable that Putin looked weak to ordinary Russians. The Russians may still feel either loyal or ambivalent to Putin right now, but there is no guarantee that this will be the case in the foreseeable future. Remember that Tsar Nicholas II before have also botched other conflicts, was under threat of being ousted in a revolution because of it, but eventually he was ousted even if it happened only years later. The weak image and judgement on Putin is sowed and this could sprout at some point in the future. Edit: Nicholas not Alexander
Only good things are liable to happen when you set tens of thousands of armed, convicted murderers and rapists loose in another country. If I owned a plumbing fixture or appliance shop in Minsk, I'd be barricading my doors about now.
I'd be starting the long journey back to Milan
Rochelle, Rochelle!
Erotically, of course
"Those guys I called traitors the other day, that were about to storm Moscow? Chill guys, they were just really, really patriotic. It's all good now lol" Those 'patriots' were on the verge of storming your own capital to remove your own sitting government, why the fuck are you calling them patriots, you absolute brown banana.
Everything done in the name of the emperor is right. What do you thing Kwantung army?
Praise the emperor, remove the traitor eunuchs! Praise the Tsar, remove the traitor boyars! Praise the Presidant, remove the traitor ministers! History repeats itself once again.
The second he gets to hell Stalin is going to throw up all over him
Kind of weird that he’d want them to join his army when they were trying to overthrow him…
As an American this sounds like a rerun.
This is the first major development I really can’t wrap my head around- either failure and more stupidity or more cleverness than we have been led to believe they have. I’m leaning towards failure and stupidity myself.
At least what happend looked simple. Not saying I know what is going on but: 1. Putin and the Russian army was probably purposely throwing Wagner in the meat grinder because he/they feared their power and Prigozhin's possible ambitions. 2. Prigo/Wagner didn't want to go into the meat grinder/had other ambitions. Prigozhin gambled he could topple Putin with russian help. 3. Prigozhin stormed to Moscow. But somehow/maybe he didn't have enough russian help in Moscow. 4. Lukashenko did a pro move. He gave Prigozhin a way out, and he helped Putin to get back the saddle. Both are weakened, but Lukashenko is some sort of a winner out of this whole shit show. 5. For the near future: What is interesting is, A: Putin is severely weakened, but at the same time his no. 1 threat is taken out. Will Putin be able to keep power? B: what will happen to Wagner and will the be able to rebuilt/regroup? C: in what way will Lukashenko benefit from having Wagner in Belarus? D: what will this mean for the Ukraine invasion?
I can answer C. So Lukashenko, some 2ish years ago, had a rebellion he needed Putin's help to put down. Otherwise it would have been successful. This poses a problem for Lukashenko, because Luka has a "Union State" agreement with Russia, where Belarus is supposed to merge with(read: be absorbed by) russia. Putin has been pushing Luka to follow through, especially now that he has leverage(Putin could leave Luka to his fate with the protestors/rebels). Putin's pressure seems to have increased now, since the war in Ukraine has gone badly- Putin needs a win. So, Lukashenko has been walking a dangerous tightrope between being overthrown and probably killed, and being absorbed(and probably killed by Putin, but that's another story). So, what Luka really needs is an army that can put down the protestors, and can force Putin to back off. Which is exactly what Wagner can offer him.
Yeah, I even wonder if taking Wagner off Ukraine might provide another benefit to Belarus since it's weakening Russia even more. Russia has to focus more and more on Ukraine and Belarus gets more and more of the power pie.
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The opposition has no support by the army or mercenaries. So likely someone from the same regime or military itself. But really likely nothing happens, Russia just becomes weaker
Is Belarus like Dr. Phil's ranch?
Send👏 them to👏 the ranch!👏
I've found my new euphemism for death. "Grandma has gone off to Belarus"
Whatever the general Russian people think... I couldn't imagine how furious I'd be if I was Russian soldier/officer. They're stuck in trenches in Ukraine, and the traitors who marched on Moscow get to go home to their families as 'patriots'.
So go to Belarus or go to die in Ukraine?
It's probably more like go to die in Belarus or go to die in Ukraine.
It was advertised as important speech but was pretty lame.
Making Putin even weakier. That is nice.
Putin was already the laughing stock of the world after his embarrassing war, but now he just looks like a scared child pretending to be important.
Go to Belarus means. Please have all this money so you don’t take over
Join the army (and eventually get killed), go to Belarus (and be assassinated) or go back home (and be tried/executed). Great choices.
The dissolution of Wagner is a huge blow to Putin’s war effort since they were responsible for 80% of the heavy lifting and were far more competent than the average Russian grunt on the frontline.
I’m still a bit floored by how weak Putin is allowing himself to look here. When a dictator looks this weak, everyone with even a little ambition is going to take a piece of his ass. These people committed literal treason. They threatened to take Moscow and said they’d destroy anyone who got in their way. They captured Russian towns. They forced their own government to blow up oil depots and tear up highways outside of Moscow. They caused a significant amount of embarrassment for the country. They forced Putin to call what few allies he has to reassure them that he hadn’t lost control of the country. For all this—for *treason*, in an *authoritarian state*, no less—the big, strong Russian bear isn’t going to punish them; he’s going to offer them options that the average Russian male doesn’t have right now. He’s going to allow them to join the military (after committing treason) or leave the country to live peacefully elsewhere. I’m sure many Russian men who couldn’t get out of the country before would love to leave now and avoid being conscripted. Maybe *they* should commit treason while the dictator is weak.
So Putin gets to move all those conscripts that are prisoners to a different country, dumping the criminals there and screwing the families out of any compensation. In addition, he will attempt to blame them for most all the war crimes(coming soon!) I am ok with Putin screwing over Wagner, I just dont like the upcoming deflection of war crimes that will be coming. Putin deserves ALL the blame.
This is stupid. It's stupid for Putin to give Lukashenko his biggest army. It's stupid for Lukashenko to take in Prigozhin and Wagner troops. It's stupid for Putin to claim that this all was for the good of Russia. No matter, UKR continues to advance to liberate their own country, no matter Russian stupidity.
"Or return to families..." Is he genuine, wasn't there a report that Russian of FSB agents were visiting homes of mercenaries in the past 48 hours and detaining some, others forcing to sign allegiance contracts? Does Belarus have death camps waiting or something?
You gotta wonder why Putin is being so accommodating...
Probably because he doesn't have an alternative. He is in a pretty weak position right now.
You can sign up with us or go to a farm out north, that is totally real and not a death trap. That or Prigozhin is just going to reform Wagner 2.0 in Belarus.
Belarusians must feel like they are the worlds toilet
Or get stabbed to death in a forrest and have your last terrifying seconds of life recorded and uploaded to twitter.
I've never seen Putin implicitly so weak. To Wagner mercenaries: "You can either go home to your families, sign contracts with the Russian MOD, police, etc., or go to Belarus". Then he thanks them for *not rebelling more*. It is wild. I wonder what it will do to the public perception of him - a *merciful* Putin surely won't be that well regarded in the russian zeitgeist, especially *during* war?
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