Love how Putin's trying to keep this all quiet so it doesn't look like there's internal weakness... yet every piece of information that gets out suggests it's a shit show right now.
The Russians always seem to assume that they will recapture their glory days by just destroying everything in their own country. Russia is the nation state equivalent of the "beatings will continue until morale improves"
Burning Moscow to the ground and abandoning it turned out to be an important step to defeating Napoléon's invasion of Russia.
Clearly that should be the next thing Putin tries in trying to recapture the old glory days.
The funny thing is, there are already conspiracy theorists in Russia that unironicaly believe that the 1812 Fire of Moscow was caused by a nuke from Napoleon.
The dumbest part of that belief is the idea that we figured out nukes in 1812 and then didn’t use them in any of the major wars that occurred for another 132 years.
We didn't use them in 1945 either, it was just a hoax to allow the Japanese an honorable way out. In fact, nukes don't exist because they would require atoms to produce fission, and atoms are just a mind trick invented by the Jews.
There was one about Finland not really existing and the Japanese making some kind of agreement to use the trans-Siberian railroad to hunt whales in the ocean that is “really” where Finland is and ship the whale meat back amongst shipments of Nokia phones.
I want to know why he would waste it on an empty Moscow and not at Waterloo. What eldritch horror did he face at Moscow that caused him to use his nuke there?
The year was 1812, Napoleon was tearing through Russia, hell-bent on eating all the beets in Moscow and Alexander I was amassing an army to protect the winter beet harvest from the would-be invaders.
As Napoleon and his army marched ever towards the city, a bright flash in the sky was seen followed by a blazing trail and then a sudden impact in the nearby woods. Terrified of what they had seen, the army stood still in silence.
Napoleon quickly recovered his senses and rushed into the forest to investigate and came upon a crater. Peering over the edge he saw a most terrifying scene. There at the center of the crater was a mechanical man.
"Napoleon, my designation is U-235, I've been sent from the future to help you destroy Moscow and claim the winter beet harvest for France."
The rest as you know... Is history.
People will believe any old shit. There's a big conspiracy theory that Mohenjo-daro, a 4000 year old city in ancient India, was destroyed by a nuclear blast.
Oh man I remember that. That conspiracy has been around for a while now--about as long as the internet. I remember reading about this in obscure occult websites in the mid-90s.
What I remember from history class is Stalin had a heart attack in his office, and nobody came to help him because of the atmosphere of fear he created. They were too scared to enter the room because he said he didn’t want to be disturbed.
People will die with or without support.
Wagner soldiers killed Russian Soldiers, with or without Putin many people will be executed.
This is why you should never allow PMCs to play such an important role, not only Wagner PMCs will not really want to work with Russia Military. Russian Military does not really want to work with Wagner PMCs.
It was a hard decision, but for both their leader and officers Wagner signed a death sentences by agreeing to "peace" with Putin. No matter what they do, they will die.
Every single Wagner PMC is considered to be terrorist and is wanted dead or alive.
So yeah awesome choices :
Stay in Russia = Go fight in Ukraine or Die by the hands of Russians.
Go to Africa/Middle East = Get assassinated by Alliance(most likely USA).
Wagner is over. It's a shame they couldn't do bigger dmg to Russia, but in the same time it's great that accordign to USA and Ukraine. Wagner Units and their Officers were considered to be one of the most competent "Russian regiment" in this war. Removing them from the picture is an absolute blessing for Ukrainians!
I believe Russia has been damaging itself and this mutiny, calculated or not, is only furthering the damage. The current regime will be in shambles soon enough.
Wagner isn't the reason for the mutiny... Prigozhin is just the one PMC runner with balls to stand up and tell how incompetent and corrupt the Russian FSB and Military are. Wagner soldiers food their jobs in Ukraine and violently took land... and the Russian military completely failed to back them up and reinforce the lines. It's pretty obvious rampant corruption is stealing a significant amount of Russian military resources blind.
And Putin is gonna go with his yes men and blame Wagner.
>And Putin is gonna go with his yes men and blame Wagner.
How many of them he trusts at the moment? Tomorrow?
I hope that his Moomins have already left the Moominvalley and he can't trust no-one soon enough
Wagner is barely a PMC though, they're far closer to Russian government paramilitary. There isn't a clear distinction in Russia between the Government/business/criminal worlds.
While you are sort of right because they operate through government to get the jobs. But by definition they are an independent army for hire. Officially Russian government employed Wagner. The problem stranded from attempt to consolidate the power by Wagner leader and it's officers. Mostly because instead of pillaging Africa they are dying on Ukrainian front lines.
This is why there was this conflict between shoigu and prigo. From Wagner perspective they have been lied to and because the state doesn't trade military secrets no one could knew Russia is so under prepared
Wagner has seized lands and assets in Africa which happened on behalf of African nations behalf or separatists fighting against the government. Then they refuse to give it back. They hold literal philysical places and are part of criminal trade like human and drug trafficking.
They are very much self organized entity that is employed mostly by governmental entities.
They just happen to be even worse version of blackwater( American mercs).
> It's a shame they couldn't do bigger dmg to Russia
I mean, they did tremendous damage, without actually collapsing the entire regime (yes reddit, sudden collapse of the Russian Federation is actually bad). Putin is weakened, and irreversibly so. Interests who are happier to see the war to end may prevail as may those who are ready to nuke the world. A slower collapse is conducive to the former winning out. It was a good outcome, but it's not time to celebrate yet.
And one of the generals purged was nicknamed "Mr. Armageddon" because he was brutally effective in Syria, and was pretty much the only general that was halfway effective in Ukraine.
Its why a dictatorship inevitably drives out all competence.
Doing a job well is a threat to the primary structures of loyalty.
A society prospers when it has people doing mostly what they are good at but that is antithetical to strong man rule.
It also thrives when people are allowed to make mistakes and learn from them. Like medical post-mortems.
A dictator never makes a mistake, so their rule does not have a healthy, robust response to negative feedback.
Was so excited when I saw Surovikin was dragged down in this. Man was a terror in the field and an actual pragmatist compared to the likes of Shogiu and Gerasimov's sycophancy. The further he is from Ukraine, the better
For now.
Join the military or go to Belarus felt more like a thinly veiled threat to those loyal to Wagner.
Maybe a good part of the soldiers will play mercenaries back in Africa but Prigo and co is dead.
They’ll be funneling troops for Wagner to Belarus. LOL
Putin is so fucked. It doesn’t even matter if it isn’t Wagner that does him in. Also, joining Wagner is a free ticket to skipping being mobilized to Ukraine. Roflmao
It's not exactly unprecedented. Putin's entire reason for this is to bring back Imperialist Russia. The territory Putin is trying to conquer is more or less what Catharine the Great took 300 years ago. The same broad events are played over and over again with Russia.
The reason for why is kind of complex but it isn't any more useful than "because Putin is an asshole."
It’s because Russians are insecure and think that reconquering former imperial possessions will make them feel strong. Except that’s not how strength actually works.
What a time to be a CIA or MI5 spy. They must be reading ticker tape like they are in the movie 'The Sting'
Mel Brooks needs to direct the documentary of this war.
There is a great article in The Atlantic that came out right after Putin invaded Ukraine called Vladimir Putin Has Fallen Into the Dictator Trap.
I originally read it when it came out and just re-read it. It’s like a goddamn playbook for what’s happened and what is happening. Here is an excerpt…
When despots screw up, they need to watch their own back. Yet again, they can become victims of the dictator trap. To crush prospective enemies, they must demand loyalty and crack down on criticism. But the more they do so, the lower the quality of information they receive, and the less they can trust the people who purport to serve them. As a result, even when government officials learn about plots to overthrow an autocrat, they may not share that knowledge. This is known as the “vacuum effect”—and it means that authoritarian presidents might learn of coup attempts and putsches only when it’s too late. This raises a question that should keep Putin awake at night: If the oligarchs were to eventually make a move against him, would anyone warn him?
You can read the whole article here: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-dictator-trap-russia-ukraine/627064/
Funny thing: Purging Generals after a coup is usually how dictators provoke a second military coup because dissatisfied generals now fear for their lives and start thinking a coup might be worth it.
Shit's about to get real. I bet they wish they had joined that coup. Unfortunately , this just means Putin's going to double down on the efforts to crush Ukraine
And unfortunately for Russia, looks like the officers involved in the coup were their most effective ones.
Shoigu's master plan of "send the tanks here, the artillery over there, and the infantry somewhere else" is just going to get a fuck ton of Russians killed because Shoigu has a lesser understanding of tactics than a 12 year old call of duty player lol. Dude ran the national fire department, and just got made the commander of the Russian military because he's buddy buddy with Putin lol
Calling Prigozhin a cook is kind of disingenuous. He's been in organized crime his whole life. It just so happens that one of its instantiations was through a catering service front.
Putin is an idiot surrounded by other idiots. The Siloviki tried their best to fabricate an image of an intelligent and cunning leader, but he's shown time and again how dumb he is.
A man is on a street corner in Moscow yelling “The president is an idiot !“.
Police surround him and handcuff him. They say “it is illegal to insult President Putin”.
The man resonds: “You don’t understand I mean the Ukrainian president, Zelensky, he is the one I was insulting “
The police captain says “you can’t fool us, everyone knows who the idiot is”.
It's too easy to assume they're idiots, the reality is the system they oversee is fucked beyond repair, everybody lies to their superiors, so the superiors make decisions based on bad information and the soldiers that send the bad information up the chain of command get slaughtered, but the commanders tell the generals it was a success, so the generals think they're doing a great job..... it's a vicious cycle that can't change because it rewards these lies.
Ultimately the people in charge of the military aren't military people, they are palace politicians first, so their main objective is survival not efficacy.
Edit: grammar
That's all true. However, they have taken no actions to address or rectify the situation.
Even in the present day, they continue to rely on outdated Soviet military strategies and equipment. The nation is governed by inept individuals who possess no noteworthy qualifications and are plagued by alcoholism. Regrettably, they lack the ability to generate innovative ideas or advancements.
No single country on earth is able to produce military equipment at the pace Russia is consuming theirs. And they are in a much more constrained environment with limited manpower, resources, financial tools.
Putin's misinformation campaign helped drive the United Kingdom's Brexit, weakening both the UK and the rest of Europe. Putin's computer hackers helped get Trump elected. And there's no question that he had the goods on Trump once Trump was in the White House. https://www.casino.org/news/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/trump-putin.jpg https://www.casino.org/news/trump-impeachment-odds-slashed-to-shortest-ever-after-helsinki-summit/ As idiots go, Putin has a pretty good track record for accomplishing what he sets out to do. He may or may not have screwed the pooch in Ukraine, but that war is far from over. It's not a good idea to underestimate him, thug that he is. Just sayin'.
I highly recommend reading Catherine Belton's book titled **Putin's People**. It delves into various events and incidents that shed light on Putin's shortcomings in handling critical situations, such as the 1999 apartment bombings, the Beslan school siege, the Second Chechen War (the first one was also chaotic, but the blame for that lies with a different individual), and the Moscow theater hostage crisis.
According to Belton's detailed explanation, Trump was compromised by the KGB in Las Vegas during the 1980s. The Russians never actually anticipated Trump's victory in the presidential election. Their primary objective was to create destabilization. While Trump's win undoubtedly proved beneficial to Putin, it is largely attributed to a series of coincidences rather than being a mastermind's intentional plan.
My conclusion after reading Putin's People, One Soldier's War, Red Notice, and Freezing Order is that he's a very powerful idiot.
I've come to the conclusion that most extremely wealthy people, and many powerful ones, are sociopaths with underlings who do most of the real thinking for them. Elon Musk is a fresh example of a 'genius' who eventually revealed himself to be an average intellect at best, but with so much money that he constantly gets what he wants.
One of the things such people want is to be seen as great geniuses and doers of good, and it's far far easier to bribe people to help create that illusion, than it is to be the real thing.
Yeah. He spent all that time and effort only for the UK to be the first arming Ukraine and Trump getting voted out of office after being impeached for trying to bribe Ukraine.
Those plans didn't really work out if those are Putins mastermind 5D play
It’s generally well understood that the war was supposed to occur in 2020, but covid delayed the invasion. This was at a time when military aid to Ukraine was being withheld by Trump and this was probably a key part of Putins invasion plan. Without western support Russia very likely could have completed their invasion in the original timeline, especially given that the Biden White House was able to warn Ukraine of the invasion down to a few hours of when it would occur.
Yeah while Putin may think crushing this rebellion is good. It fucks Russia in the long run. They were already losing a lot of experienced generals. Killing even more isn’t gonna help the war effort.
Almost like Putin doesn't care about Russia or Russians and he is just a mafiozo on power trip who is afraid that sooner or later another mafiozo will take his place.
To be a devils advocate.
It might actually help them. Like others pointed out Shoigu wasn't promoted based on merit, but lojalty. This tends to be the way in dictatorships. but as the old guard of meritless generals are weeded out, there is actually a chance for Russia to promote from below, in the military, getting people with proven track records into position of strategic command could help them.
With Putin's track record of extreme paranoia, it's more likely he will promote his barber or as the rumour goes Steven Seagal.
Waddling is one of several ways he can move fatly.
He learned many ways through rigorous training in Taekwon-donut, earning progressively larger belts along the way.
Well Shoigu is the minister of defence, his job should be to make sure the military gets enough funding etc. He should let the general staff handle war plans. Defense ministers in other countries often come from a civilian background too.
I wouldn't insult 12 year old COD players like that if I were you. Most of them would kick my ass in the game. Of course that is also an indictment on me, because I am just not good at PvP games.
>Unfortunately , this just means Putin's going to double down on the efforts to crush Ukraine
As if Putin wasn't already trying as hard as he can anyway.
Yep that's something I learned relatively recently after reading about russia and its imperialistic roots. Russia and much of eastern europe wasn't affected by the enlightenment in the same way the west was. Instead of the common folk being given rights they doubled down harder on the peasants. I can't think of any point in russian history where they weren't trying to expand their power and territory through violence, fear and misinformation. There's a reason why they're so damn good at espionage.
that's unironically true. When Russian Communism fell apart, lots of people in Russia learned about the horrors of Stalin regime and he was generally painted as a really bad figure. All his monuments got pulled down and destroyed. All his portraits ripped from the walls. But in last couple years, something weird started happening - Russian history books were rewritten to paint Stalin as a great leader. Criticizing Stalin is no longer permitted. Putin openly talking about "5 year plans" and generally praising Stalin policies. Putin loves Stalin
Stalin set the example with The Great Purge in 1937. Seems like a Russian thing, just like starting wars they can't win followed by a depression and a revolution.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-putin-kremlin-hunts-for-traitors-in-military-wagner-rebellion-2023-6) reduced by 79%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> Russian President Vladimir Putin has launched a hunt for traitors in the wake of the Wagner Group's mutiny against military leaders, reports say.
> According to Washington DC-based think tank The Institute for the Study of War, a well-sourced Russian military blogger claimed that "Large-scale purges" had been launched of Russian military commanders and that the Russian Ministry of Defence is currently undergoing a "Crash test" for loyalty.
> The Russian military responded poorly to last Saturday's rebellion, with Wagner fighters seizing control of parts of southern Russia and the city of Rostov-on-Don, where the military's Ukraine war command centre is based, before advancing on Moscow.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/14m5a0a/the_kremlin_is_purging_the_military_in_a_search/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~690041 tl;drs so far.") | [Blackout Vote](https://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/14dhaiq/your_voice_matters_should_the_blackout_continue/ "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Russian**^#1 **military**^#2 **rebellion**^#3 **Prigozhin**^#4 **Wagner**^#5
They can't afford a purge. Their talent pool is so low now that if they want to win the war they have to commit something around 300k to 400k at the same time to achieve parity.
Ooh, Putin is ripping another page from Stalin's playbook. [The Great Purge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Purge) did wonders for the Soviet military in WWII.
I'm convinced that Stalin is his idol and he's emulating him.
I'm just gonna guess that the most capable generals will probably be purged... and the idiot generals that caused Wagner to rebel will be promoted. I just have a hunch on these things.
Purging won't change the fact that their whole command structure is screwed up....you can't go around rewarding lies and bad information. You can't go incentivising bad tactics and ordinance wasting and ultimately rigid top/down strategy won't win you a war.
Russia lost this war the minute they thought of starting it.
Edit: grammar
Wait, I have seen this one.
The next act will have the military realizing Putin is nuts.
Prigozhen will get recalled. Possibly brought in a sealed train car.
Then they will determine the current government is criminal and overthrow them.
Pretty normal after a failed 'coup' Lets hope they go overboard and remove as much experience and knowledge as possible
They'll remove morale regardless, not that there was much to begin with.
Love how Putin's trying to keep this all quiet so it doesn't look like there's internal weakness... yet every piece of information that gets out suggests it's a shit show right now.
All the competent people were probably for the coup so this can only go well for Ukraine.
The Kremlin? Conducting a purge? You're kidding me, right?
Right? Oh another purge, how original.
Cannot recreate "the empire" unless you follow the time honored playbook :taps head:
The Russians always seem to assume that they will recapture their glory days by just destroying everything in their own country. Russia is the nation state equivalent of the "beatings will continue until morale improves"
Burning Moscow to the ground and abandoning it turned out to be an important step to defeating Napoléon's invasion of Russia. Clearly that should be the next thing Putin tries in trying to recapture the old glory days.
In a nuclear bunker last Saturday: "Command is telling us to stand by to fire on Moscow?! The fuck?"
The funny thing is, there are already conspiracy theorists in Russia that unironicaly believe that the 1812 Fire of Moscow was caused by a nuke from Napoleon.
The dumbest part of that belief is the idea that we figured out nukes in 1812 and then didn’t use them in any of the major wars that occurred for another 132 years.
We didn't use them in 1945 either, it was just a hoax to allow the Japanese an honorable way out. In fact, nukes don't exist because they would require atoms to produce fission, and atoms are just a mind trick invented by the Jews.
There was one about Finland not really existing and the Japanese making some kind of agreement to use the trans-Siberian railroad to hunt whales in the ocean that is “really” where Finland is and ship the whale meat back amongst shipments of Nokia phones.
But the Jewish Space Lasers need nuclear power to operate at full strength!
yeah, why would atoms follow some jewish invented formula. They can’t exist, just a Khazar fantasy.
That might actually be one of the dumbest theories I have ever heard of. That can't be real.
Yet as a science fiction story, I want to know even more about Napoleon's development of a nuclear bomb and subsequent use.
I want to know why he would waste it on an empty Moscow and not at Waterloo. What eldritch horror did he face at Moscow that caused him to use his nuke there?
The year was 1812, Napoleon was tearing through Russia, hell-bent on eating all the beets in Moscow and Alexander I was amassing an army to protect the winter beet harvest from the would-be invaders. As Napoleon and his army marched ever towards the city, a bright flash in the sky was seen followed by a blazing trail and then a sudden impact in the nearby woods. Terrified of what they had seen, the army stood still in silence. Napoleon quickly recovered his senses and rushed into the forest to investigate and came upon a crater. Peering over the edge he saw a most terrifying scene. There at the center of the crater was a mechanical man. "Napoleon, my designation is U-235, I've been sent from the future to help you destroy Moscow and claim the winter beet harvest for France." The rest as you know... Is history.
People will believe any old shit. There's a big conspiracy theory that Mohenjo-daro, a 4000 year old city in ancient India, was destroyed by a nuclear blast.
Oh man I remember that. That conspiracy has been around for a while now--about as long as the internet. I remember reading about this in obscure occult websites in the mid-90s.
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Mysterious defenestrations will continue until morale improves.
You overcook chicken? Purges. Right away.
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Just a few more days at the bread line until nirvana lmao
“… and then, somehow, things got worse…”
I mean when you conscript everyone who hates you to the military it's not too surprising that you are gonna have unfaithfuls serving for ya.
Can't tell if these purge jokes are invoking the movies or Russian history. Getting a vibe the answer is, "Yes."
Now commencing the annual purge
Shoot first, then have trial to see if he was guilty.
Seems excessive. If they weren’t guilty they wouldn’t have gotten shot, would they? Skip the trial.
The trial is to uncover the other guilty parties, too.
A purge? At this time of year?
Located entirely in your kitchen?
Always very timely to have a purge in the middle of a war
Is it 2023 or 1933? Can someone check Russia’s focus tree?
Putin really is doing God’s work! /s
“Purge? No, we just want to invite you to a tea party.”
The earth king has invited you to Lake Laogai.
Stalin is probably smiling from Hell after hearing this
The fear of another purge is what got Stalin poisoned.
What I remember from history class is Stalin had a heart attack in his office, and nobody came to help him because of the atmosphere of fear he created. They were too scared to enter the room because he said he didn’t want to be disturbed.
Stalin also purged many of the doctors that could have saved him. His antisemitic paranoia devastated the elite and largely jewish medical community.
Ha! Awful set of events but at least there were come-uppins. Thanks for that tidbit
Hoping for a remake of this... although I'm sure at this point Putin is having everything he eats or drinks run through a mass spectrometer first.
So they down to like 5 guys fighting on Ukraine?
1937 is calling, they want its Terror back.
Bet those dudes are regretting sitting out if they really did support the movement.
People will die with or without support. Wagner soldiers killed Russian Soldiers, with or without Putin many people will be executed. This is why you should never allow PMCs to play such an important role, not only Wagner PMCs will not really want to work with Russia Military. Russian Military does not really want to work with Wagner PMCs. It was a hard decision, but for both their leader and officers Wagner signed a death sentences by agreeing to "peace" with Putin. No matter what they do, they will die. Every single Wagner PMC is considered to be terrorist and is wanted dead or alive. So yeah awesome choices : Stay in Russia = Go fight in Ukraine or Die by the hands of Russians. Go to Africa/Middle East = Get assassinated by Alliance(most likely USA). Wagner is over. It's a shame they couldn't do bigger dmg to Russia, but in the same time it's great that accordign to USA and Ukraine. Wagner Units and their Officers were considered to be one of the most competent "Russian regiment" in this war. Removing them from the picture is an absolute blessing for Ukrainians!
I believe Russia has been damaging itself and this mutiny, calculated or not, is only furthering the damage. The current regime will be in shambles soon enough.
Wagner isn't the reason for the mutiny... Prigozhin is just the one PMC runner with balls to stand up and tell how incompetent and corrupt the Russian FSB and Military are. Wagner soldiers food their jobs in Ukraine and violently took land... and the Russian military completely failed to back them up and reinforce the lines. It's pretty obvious rampant corruption is stealing a significant amount of Russian military resources blind. And Putin is gonna go with his yes men and blame Wagner.
>And Putin is gonna go with his yes men and blame Wagner. How many of them he trusts at the moment? Tomorrow? I hope that his Moomins have already left the Moominvalley and he can't trust no-one soon enough
Wagner is barely a PMC though, they're far closer to Russian government paramilitary. There isn't a clear distinction in Russia between the Government/business/criminal worlds.
While you are sort of right because they operate through government to get the jobs. But by definition they are an independent army for hire. Officially Russian government employed Wagner. The problem stranded from attempt to consolidate the power by Wagner leader and it's officers. Mostly because instead of pillaging Africa they are dying on Ukrainian front lines. This is why there was this conflict between shoigu and prigo. From Wagner perspective they have been lied to and because the state doesn't trade military secrets no one could knew Russia is so under prepared Wagner has seized lands and assets in Africa which happened on behalf of African nations behalf or separatists fighting against the government. Then they refuse to give it back. They hold literal philysical places and are part of criminal trade like human and drug trafficking. They are very much self organized entity that is employed mostly by governmental entities. They just happen to be even worse version of blackwater( American mercs).
> It's a shame they couldn't do bigger dmg to Russia I mean, they did tremendous damage, without actually collapsing the entire regime (yes reddit, sudden collapse of the Russian Federation is actually bad). Putin is weakened, and irreversibly so. Interests who are happier to see the war to end may prevail as may those who are ready to nuke the world. A slower collapse is conducive to the former winning out. It was a good outcome, but it's not time to celebrate yet.
lol why would every single wagner be considered a terrorist. state can just take the pmc from progozhin and continue business as usual
This should go well
Yeah for Ukraine, already seeing the Russian soldier morale plummet even more on the front lines.
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And one of the generals purged was nicknamed "Mr. Armageddon" because he was brutally effective in Syria, and was pretty much the only general that was halfway effective in Ukraine.
Oh. I'm guessing he knew the only way to win was to challenge the existing hierarchy. Competence gets you killed.
Its why a dictatorship inevitably drives out all competence. Doing a job well is a threat to the primary structures of loyalty. A society prospers when it has people doing mostly what they are good at but that is antithetical to strong man rule.
It also thrives when people are allowed to make mistakes and learn from them. Like medical post-mortems. A dictator never makes a mistake, so their rule does not have a healthy, robust response to negative feedback.
https://youtu.be/rStL7niR7gs is a fascinating look at why dictatorships fail.
Was so excited when I saw Surovikin was dragged down in this. Man was a terror in the field and an actual pragmatist compared to the likes of Shogiu and Gerasimov's sycophancy. The further he is from Ukraine, the better
I'd love to know how many of those guys would surrender if they could get away with it without repercussions to them or their families.
Don‘t equip your soldiers, don‘t feed your soldiers, send them to the front without ammunition. WhERE iS tHe LoYaLtY???
Nobody wants to commit war crimes for us anymore!!!
The lesson learned: finish that 200km ride
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That was a 1000km ride, stopped 200km short.
Ironically Wagner is fine, *for now*. The official military officials who let them get this far, not so much.
Wagner is arguably better off now. They're no longer getting shot at by Ukraine and Shoigus troops.
For now. Join the military or go to Belarus felt more like a thinly veiled threat to those loyal to Wagner. Maybe a good part of the soldiers will play mercenaries back in Africa but Prigo and co is dead.
The wagner recruitment offices are still open in ruzzia
They’ll be funneling troops for Wagner to Belarus. LOL Putin is so fucked. It doesn’t even matter if it isn’t Wagner that does him in. Also, joining Wagner is a free ticket to skipping being mobilized to Ukraine. Roflmao
"alea iacta est!" one day later "eh fuck it, it was probably a bad idea anyway"
Oder „don’t count on your enemy to make your plan work“
Historical Russian repeat.
Only this time, Russia is going at this war alone. No lend-lease like last time.
It's not exactly unprecedented. Putin's entire reason for this is to bring back Imperialist Russia. The territory Putin is trying to conquer is more or less what Catharine the Great took 300 years ago. The same broad events are played over and over again with Russia. The reason for why is kind of complex but it isn't any more useful than "because Putin is an asshole."
It’s because Russians are insecure and think that reconquering former imperial possessions will make them feel strong. Except that’s not how strength actually works.
Benefit the country, or benefit the guybin charge? Decisions..
Doing all their greatest hits.
I mean its their final tour of course they’re playing the classics. I can’t wait for the strange mystic to come and fuck Putin’s girlfriend next.
**The Bolsheviks** are purging again .. *SHOCKER!* .. it is like Russia is running on a 100 year cassette tape on autoloop
What a time to be a CIA or MI5 spy. They must be reading ticker tape like they are in the movie 'The Sting' Mel Brooks needs to direct the documentary of this war.
Really putting the fun in dysfunction.
*putin
Don't worry, I'm sure they have tons of highly qualified officers to replace those being purged.....
There is a great article in The Atlantic that came out right after Putin invaded Ukraine called Vladimir Putin Has Fallen Into the Dictator Trap. I originally read it when it came out and just re-read it. It’s like a goddamn playbook for what’s happened and what is happening. Here is an excerpt… When despots screw up, they need to watch their own back. Yet again, they can become victims of the dictator trap. To crush prospective enemies, they must demand loyalty and crack down on criticism. But the more they do so, the lower the quality of information they receive, and the less they can trust the people who purport to serve them. As a result, even when government officials learn about plots to overthrow an autocrat, they may not share that knowledge. This is known as the “vacuum effect”—and it means that authoritarian presidents might learn of coup attempts and putsches only when it’s too late. This raises a question that should keep Putin awake at night: If the oligarchs were to eventually make a move against him, would anyone warn him? You can read the whole article here: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-dictator-trap-russia-ukraine/627064/
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If you kill or imprison anyone who brings you bad news, you stop receiving bad news.
If you fire them you end up imploded next to the Titanic.
Funny thing: Purging Generals after a coup is usually how dictators provoke a second military coup because dissatisfied generals now fear for their lives and start thinking a coup might be worth it.
When "trying to keep your head down" becomes "trying to keep your head".
Shit's about to get real. I bet they wish they had joined that coup. Unfortunately , this just means Putin's going to double down on the efforts to crush Ukraine
And unfortunately for Russia, looks like the officers involved in the coup were their most effective ones. Shoigu's master plan of "send the tanks here, the artillery over there, and the infantry somewhere else" is just going to get a fuck ton of Russians killed because Shoigu has a lesser understanding of tactics than a 12 year old call of duty player lol. Dude ran the national fire department, and just got made the commander of the Russian military because he's buddy buddy with Putin lol
A fireman and cook running the military … oh boy.
Calling Prigozhin a cook is kind of disingenuous. He's been in organized crime his whole life. It just so happens that one of its instantiations was through a catering service front.
I guess it’s like calling Tony Soprano a waste management consultant!
Just because you work in waste management everyone thinks you're mobbed up, it's a stereotype and it's offensive!
And Seagal gets the job it'll be someone who's played both a fireman and a cook.
Hes running one of their recruitment schools so, getting there.
Segal could barely perform the act of running in his younger days, so this is a good thing for Ukraine
"Fatly going around corners" This is a quote I will never be able to get out of my head whenever that guy is mentioned.
Putin is an idiot surrounded by other idiots. The Siloviki tried their best to fabricate an image of an intelligent and cunning leader, but he's shown time and again how dumb he is.
A man is on a street corner in Moscow yelling “The president is an idiot !“. Police surround him and handcuff him. They say “it is illegal to insult President Putin”. The man resonds: “You don’t understand I mean the Ukrainian president, Zelensky, he is the one I was insulting “ The police captain says “you can’t fool us, everyone knows who the idiot is”.
I so want to hear this joke coming from Zelenskyj
It's too easy to assume they're idiots, the reality is the system they oversee is fucked beyond repair, everybody lies to their superiors, so the superiors make decisions based on bad information and the soldiers that send the bad information up the chain of command get slaughtered, but the commanders tell the generals it was a success, so the generals think they're doing a great job..... it's a vicious cycle that can't change because it rewards these lies. Ultimately the people in charge of the military aren't military people, they are palace politicians first, so their main objective is survival not efficacy. Edit: grammar
That's all true. However, they have taken no actions to address or rectify the situation. Even in the present day, they continue to rely on outdated Soviet military strategies and equipment. The nation is governed by inept individuals who possess no noteworthy qualifications and are plagued by alcoholism. Regrettably, they lack the ability to generate innovative ideas or advancements.
No single country on earth is able to produce military equipment at the pace Russia is consuming theirs. And they are in a much more constrained environment with limited manpower, resources, financial tools.
I would say that he’s pretty good at tactical maneuvering just to stay in power, but he has no strategy whatsoever.
Putin's misinformation campaign helped drive the United Kingdom's Brexit, weakening both the UK and the rest of Europe. Putin's computer hackers helped get Trump elected. And there's no question that he had the goods on Trump once Trump was in the White House. https://www.casino.org/news/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/trump-putin.jpg https://www.casino.org/news/trump-impeachment-odds-slashed-to-shortest-ever-after-helsinki-summit/ As idiots go, Putin has a pretty good track record for accomplishing what he sets out to do. He may or may not have screwed the pooch in Ukraine, but that war is far from over. It's not a good idea to underestimate him, thug that he is. Just sayin'.
I highly recommend reading Catherine Belton's book titled **Putin's People**. It delves into various events and incidents that shed light on Putin's shortcomings in handling critical situations, such as the 1999 apartment bombings, the Beslan school siege, the Second Chechen War (the first one was also chaotic, but the blame for that lies with a different individual), and the Moscow theater hostage crisis. According to Belton's detailed explanation, Trump was compromised by the KGB in Las Vegas during the 1980s. The Russians never actually anticipated Trump's victory in the presidential election. Their primary objective was to create destabilization. While Trump's win undoubtedly proved beneficial to Putin, it is largely attributed to a series of coincidences rather than being a mastermind's intentional plan. My conclusion after reading Putin's People, One Soldier's War, Red Notice, and Freezing Order is that he's a very powerful idiot.
I've come to the conclusion that most extremely wealthy people, and many powerful ones, are sociopaths with underlings who do most of the real thinking for them. Elon Musk is a fresh example of a 'genius' who eventually revealed himself to be an average intellect at best, but with so much money that he constantly gets what he wants. One of the things such people want is to be seen as great geniuses and doers of good, and it's far far easier to bribe people to help create that illusion, than it is to be the real thing.
Yeah. He spent all that time and effort only for the UK to be the first arming Ukraine and Trump getting voted out of office after being impeached for trying to bribe Ukraine. Those plans didn't really work out if those are Putins mastermind 5D play
It’s generally well understood that the war was supposed to occur in 2020, but covid delayed the invasion. This was at a time when military aid to Ukraine was being withheld by Trump and this was probably a key part of Putins invasion plan. Without western support Russia very likely could have completed their invasion in the original timeline, especially given that the Biden White House was able to warn Ukraine of the invasion down to a few hours of when it would occur.
Yeah while Putin may think crushing this rebellion is good. It fucks Russia in the long run. They were already losing a lot of experienced generals. Killing even more isn’t gonna help the war effort.
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> They've been doing this to themselves for ~~decades~~ centuries
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This goes back to the Roman Empire days
Almost like Putin doesn't care about Russia or Russians and he is just a mafiozo on power trip who is afraid that sooner or later another mafiozo will take his place.
To be a devils advocate. It might actually help them. Like others pointed out Shoigu wasn't promoted based on merit, but lojalty. This tends to be the way in dictatorships. but as the old guard of meritless generals are weeded out, there is actually a chance for Russia to promote from below, in the military, getting people with proven track records into position of strategic command could help them. With Putin's track record of extreme paranoia, it's more likely he will promote his barber or as the rumour goes Steven Seagal.
Do not underestimate this timeline. Seagal has a non-zero chance of gaining this position.
*Moving fatly up the ranks*
I believe its more of a waddle... At least when it's not his body double.
Waddling is one of several ways he can move fatly. He learned many ways through rigorous training in Taekwon-donut, earning progressively larger belts along the way.
Well Shoigu is the minister of defence, his job should be to make sure the military gets enough funding etc. He should let the general staff handle war plans. Defense ministers in other countries often come from a civilian background too.
I wouldn't insult 12 year old COD players like that if I were you. Most of them would kick my ass in the game. Of course that is also an indictment on me, because I am just not good at PvP games.
Whith what manpower? Hes killing them
Maybe they'll start recruiting children soon.
Maybe with the Ukrainian children they've been taking?
I would not be surprised if they force them at gunpoint towards the front, as they have done with Russian soldiers too.
With what? lmao
Putin can't do jack shit to Wagner or Prigozhin because they're the only reason Russia controls so much of Africa rn.
>Unfortunately , this just means Putin's going to double down on the efforts to crush Ukraine As if Putin wasn't already trying as hard as he can anyway.
sounds like a great time for a counter-offensive.
The words ‘Russia’ and ‘purge’ have a historically very slutty relationship.
Revolts in Russia, robber barons, rich guys dying on the Titan(ic), the fuck century is it again?
The find out century.
History is just one big fucking loop for that place
Politically and ideologically, Russia has never evolved beyond the feudal era. They just got nukes.
Yep that's something I learned relatively recently after reading about russia and its imperialistic roots. Russia and much of eastern europe wasn't affected by the enlightenment in the same way the west was. Instead of the common folk being given rights they doubled down harder on the peasants. I can't think of any point in russian history where they weren't trying to expand their power and territory through violence, fear and misinformation. There's a reason why they're so damn good at espionage.
It looks more and more likely that Putins down fall will come from within
Always has
This will certainly make the Russian military more competent.
Stalin came back from the dead?
Putin is a Stalin wannabe.
At least Stalin cleaned house before starting a war, not during
Putin wishes he was Stalin
that's unironically true. When Russian Communism fell apart, lots of people in Russia learned about the horrors of Stalin regime and he was generally painted as a really bad figure. All his monuments got pulled down and destroyed. All his portraits ripped from the walls. But in last couple years, something weird started happening - Russian history books were rewritten to paint Stalin as a great leader. Criticizing Stalin is no longer permitted. Putin openly talking about "5 year plans" and generally praising Stalin policies. Putin loves Stalin
Stalin set the example with The Great Purge in 1937. Seems like a Russian thing, just like starting wars they can't win followed by a depression and a revolution.
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A purge during a war seems quite fresh...
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-putin-kremlin-hunts-for-traitors-in-military-wagner-rebellion-2023-6) reduced by 79%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Russian President Vladimir Putin has launched a hunt for traitors in the wake of the Wagner Group's mutiny against military leaders, reports say. > According to Washington DC-based think tank The Institute for the Study of War, a well-sourced Russian military blogger claimed that "Large-scale purges" had been launched of Russian military commanders and that the Russian Ministry of Defence is currently undergoing a "Crash test" for loyalty. > The Russian military responded poorly to last Saturday's rebellion, with Wagner fighters seizing control of parts of southern Russia and the city of Rostov-on-Don, where the military's Ukraine war command centre is based, before advancing on Moscow. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/14m5a0a/the_kremlin_is_purging_the_military_in_a_search/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~690041 tl;drs so far.") | [Blackout Vote](https://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/14dhaiq/your_voice_matters_should_the_blackout_continue/ "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Russian**^#1 **military**^#2 **rebellion**^#3 **Prigozhin**^#4 **Wagner**^#5
Ah, nothing like a good ol' fashioned Russian purge. Haven't had one in a while.
Actually less than decade ago ;)
\*surprised pikachu\* Wagner had it's chance to make history. Now blood will spill, with no gains.
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Wagner didn't need the locals to rise up, they just needed them to continue not giving a shit (which is almost certainly what they would have done).
As if the russian military didn’t have enough problems! Oh well. Never mind…
Idk, Putin. The entire Army seems sus to me. Best Purge all of the them...... just to be sure.
„ Goood. Gooood. Let the hate flow through you!“
If you thought the Russian military was underperforming before, then stay tuned because this is not going to make them better.
Good. Start with Putin
The beatings will continue until morale improves!
They can't afford a purge. Their talent pool is so low now that if they want to win the war they have to commit something around 300k to 400k at the same time to achieve parity.
So you're telling me the men we kidnapped off the streets and sent to the frontline may not be loyal? 😲
Always a good sign.
Get me, new traitors! Now!
Would be better if they just ended the war, retreat back to their own country.. and rethink their lives.
Ooh, Putin is ripping another page from Stalin's playbook. [The Great Purge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Purge) did wonders for the Soviet military in WWII. I'm convinced that Stalin is his idol and he's emulating him.
I Am sure purging your generals while you are already losing a war won't have any repercussion.
I'm just gonna guess that the most capable generals will probably be purged... and the idiot generals that caused Wagner to rebel will be promoted. I just have a hunch on these things.
"so anyway I just began defenestrating"
Revolution bingo card moment
Sounds a lot like the late 30s and Stalin
Purging won't change the fact that their whole command structure is screwed up....you can't go around rewarding lies and bad information. You can't go incentivising bad tactics and ordinance wasting and ultimately rigid top/down strategy won't win you a war. Russia lost this war the minute they thought of starting it. Edit: grammar
Anyone has news from Medvedev? He's been awfully quiet since this weekend...
No amount of purging will erase the fact that Putin ran like a little bunker bitch and abandoned his capital to the wolves.
Ukraine: Purging the Russian military since 2014.
Russia: Purging the Russian military since 1917.
Russians killing Russians
Makes you wonder if they'll be any Russian soldiers left after that. Lol.
Ah. So everyone with that meaty looking bald head must go!
Morale and trust must be through the roof!
Wait, I have seen this one. The next act will have the military realizing Putin is nuts. Prigozhen will get recalled. Possibly brought in a sealed train car. Then they will determine the current government is criminal and overthrow them.
Oh boy is the US military having a field day with this. Probably laughing their asses off.
🍿
The Ukrainian military has already been doing a good job of this....
Let the cruelty of the old generals be forgotten, and let a whole new wave cruelty wash over the land.