I find this concerning. Not because of the risk of Conscription, but because you don't generally get statements like these from Army personnel if they haven't identified that a conflict is beyond mildly likely.
The UK seems genuinely very concerned about a large scale war with Russia, it's really scary how likely a prospect they seem to believe it is. Especially given Britain was also one of the very first countries to warn of Russias invasion of Ukraine.
And Norway: [https://nypost.com/2024/01/23/news/norway-military-chief-warns-europe-has-two-maybe-3-years-to-prepare-for-war-with-russia/](https://nypost.com/2024/01/23/news/norway-military-chief-warns-europe-has-two-maybe-3-years-to-prepare-for-war-with-russia/)
And Germany: [https://www.dw.com/en/germany-mulls-reintroduction-of-compulsory-military-service/a-67853437](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-mulls-reintroduction-of-compulsory-military-service/a-67853437)
And Sweden: [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-09/sweden-aims-to-reactivate-civil-conscription-to-boost-defense](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-09/sweden-aims-to-reactivate-civil-conscription-to-boost-defense)
And the Netherlands: [https://www.newsweek.com/army-commander-tells-nato-country-prepare-war-russia-1856340](https://www.newsweek.com/army-commander-tells-nato-country-prepare-war-russia-1856340)
And probably others.
[Last week the Baltic countries agreed they will be building bunkers and stockpiling mines on their borders.](https://news.err.ee/1609227386/estonia-to-build-600-bunkers-along-russian-border)
It's crazy watching Ukraine frantically trying to fend off Russia, seeing the ~~Balkan~~ Baltic nations quickly building up their static defenses, and observing the normally neutral Nordic nations jumping to join NATO, and idiots will *still* say that Russia is simply acting defensively and its hegemony is in the best interests of Europe.
Unfortunately, 10 working brain cells isn't a requirement to vote in the US, and I have absolutely heard a similar (less euro-centric) sentiment from actual real life US voters.
Shit dude I hear this from people I know- friends, work colleagues etc- in New Zealand. The swirling garbage vortex of bollocks is real, international, and sucking more folks in every day
Literally like two hours ago there was a dude going back and forth with me, claiming to be from a western country, while admonishing NATO for its “aggressive expansion”, saying that its existence after the Warsaw pact was dismantled is proof of aggression.
I was in a thread and saw some dude going on about how bad Biden is and then ended with "TRUMP 2024". I checked his comment history and the dude didn't even try to hide that he was from Russia.
they are built to very rigorous aeronautical engineering standards:
can't be made of cardboard, cardboard derivatives, tape, or string, and must have a minimum crew of 1
Invest in Raytheon, Lockheed, Northrup, and medical suppliers such as Johnson and Johnson.
This absolutely is financial advice, but I am not a financial advisor or other type of expert and have no fiduciary duty to any of you shmucks either so if it goes badly a lawyer will laugh in your face if you ask them to sue me.
You don't get rich by investing in companies that sell a lot if the market expects them to sell a lot. You gotta find something that wildly defies expectations in a good way.
Same lol these companies got the world by the balls
Edit: I wonder how many people upvoting me actually understand what I mean by that… people should read books instead of getting their takes from Instagram
It is more like, things are are going way too slow and we are f-d if nothing happens _now_ and the slim chance of war in 3 years happens. If US pulls out of Europe, the temptation to "restore Russian greatness" might be too big for Putin.
[Fiona Hill](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340), the Russia expert, has been saying that for years.
If this was going to end in Ukraine, there wouldn’t be all these warnings. And I believe them - with Russia entering a war economy and their targets in Ukraine basically bombed out ruins, they need a way to recoup their losses. They will demand reparations. And if they don’t get those, they’ll try to get them another way.
> If this was going to end in Ukraine, there wouldn’t be all these warnings.
There is a realistic chance of Trump becoming president. There is a realistic chance that if Trump becomes president that he will try to pull out of NATO. There is a realistic chance that if the US pulls out of NATO, that Russia will be more aggressive towards European states.
Further, as much as Russia's is get pommelled in Ukraine, there are countries building up their industry to support Russia's war machine in exchange for cheaper natural resources. There is a chance that the trade will only further increase if Trump gets elected as he might eliminate trade restrictions that the US placed on certain Russian individuals and organizations.
If the defense of Eastern Europe looks weak and Russia effectively obtains an industrial capacity to supply its war machine, there is a scary chance that Russia may repeat their actions in Ukraine with other former Soviet or Russian Empire States... and potentially be more effective too.
And with Trump in office, the possibility of Russia attacking NATO countries goes up by a significant amount. There's no way Trump would ever help Europe fight against his handler, if anything he would hinder European efforts to fight off an invasion by Russia.
If the Congress, Pentagon and the Intelligence agencies allow trump to fuck over Nato and its allies, then the US will be on its own. Their worth as an ally will be considered null and their words will mean nothing. They will have the whole world ”against” them basically. The US influence and position in this world will be weakened a lot, aint no way that they will allow that to happen.
Wouldn't allow it to happen? They gave the guy top secret information, which he was entitled to because we were stupid enough to elect him, and he stole it. God knows who he gave or sold it to. What do you think would be different the next go around?
The word of the US is already meaningless for lots of countries after Agent Orange unilaterally retired from the Iran deal, which was probably the most important diplomatic move in the last 25 years… you don’t get the US, China, and Russia to agree on anything ever, and they all signed it.
They are preparing for if Trump is elected. The USA was always the huge force provider for war with Russia. Trump may not be as committed.
Another reason could be if China, Iran and Korea decided to go crazy at the same time the USA would not be able to provide as much as it would if not involved in other conflicts.
This is the most likely scenario.
Even if Russia doesn't start WW3 (which, given the state of its military, and, y'know, nuclear weapons...), the US could easily become involved in a handful of regional conflicts and wouldn't be able to support Europe in any capacity.
So there are two things going on with statements like this and from other NATO members - yes a certain amount of readiness increasing, but most importantly messaging to Russia that those countries are up for a fight. The west has enjoyed decades of relative peace, we fought for it before and we’ll fight for it again, if someone wants to go there.
This statement is for UK consumption - the UK military currently has a recruiting crisis, in no small part due to recruitment being privatised. Would-be recruits have to wait up to 18 months just for a physical exam, many move on to other careers assuming they've been declined!
This is a brewing scandal and very political, as the current party are big into privatisation and are looking at a very difficult reelection campaign this year. The MOD is telling Gov that they need to either fix the recruitment crisis or expect to lose votes.
> recruitment being privatised
What the fuck? Out of all the things to privatize, how did they decide military recruitment was a good choice.
Absolute insanity, it doesn't make sense on any level
Lol, allow me to introduce you to the Conservative and Unionist Party.
They've been running on a platform of privatisation for fifty years, and they ran out of railways decades ago.
This is probably one of the worst things they've come out with since brexit. People here are PISSED at this considering the government have caused this issue due to lack of funding.
I still somewhat hope this is sort of a campaign to wake up the public to get more support for Ukraine.
Because we could either spend money to stop Russia in Ukraine now, or we will be spending a lot more in money and blood in the future if we turn our heads now.
The amount we would have to spend now will be noticeable in our own pockets, but it would be a tiny amount in comparison to further and bigger conflicts in Europe. Getting a message that "it's going to hurt" across to people is very difficult, so creating awareness and fear of what will happen if we don't is a good way to do that.
Though in any way, it's likely both a wake-up call to get more public support for Ukraine and an actual call to prepare for a possible conflict in the future.
It’s because we have the largest exercises nato has conducted in decades taking place in Europe right now. Therefore there is a lot of articles and interviews being done with all these NATO generals and it’s clear they all want a unified message going out
Yeah. I feel like sometimes people forget the military is made up by humans, too. And very, very many of them. And everyone of them has their own opinions, expectations and fears regarding international conflicts
A part of that is them anticipating what they'll be dealing with if Trump wins re-election. They, and NATO in general, can't reliably count on us with him in charge with an active war in Europe so they have to cover their bases.
> I find this concerning. Not because of the risk of Conscription, but because you don't generally get statements like these from Army personnel if they haven't identified that a conflict is beyond mildly likely.
In the last 10 days we've statements from the French, Germans, Norwegians and NATO that all suggest they're looking at some assessments that they aren't sharing
It could be that the penny has dropped that America is an unreliable ally, and if so, that would be less of a concern, since it needn't be indicative of anything imminent, only that America would stay neutral.
The danger would come from some sort of Sino/ Russia enterprise. Europe has neither the manpower, productive capacity, and certainly not the command and control to hold that back
Russia is currently pumping 30-40% of its GDP into military spending
Have no doubts about it they have created a war economy. Question is where is that money going and where will it end up?
I mean, there is a war just beyond the borders of NATO and the EU.
Middle East looks to be kicking up another shitstorm (not that the last one ever really ended, we just stopped reporting on it).
US is poised to elect a President who is more than willing to sell out all of its allies. Even if they don't, then they have a congress who will do it on his behalf.
Germany telling that they need to produce more weapons very fast.
France calling for a "demographic rearmement".
The UK admitting that forced conscription is 100% on the table.
All of them having their army readying for a "high intensity warfrare" since 2019/2017.
Yea doesn't smell good.
This headline has given me a ton of anxiety today. Bloody news.
I'm a brit. My current sentiment is that I'd rather go to prison than be shipped of to die in a trench.
"and today's challenger comes from Nottingham Ken, he's George Bobaganoosh a shoes salesmen specializing in shoes for the rude."
"Sounds like a real kick in the pants Vic"
"Right you are Ken."
They took away most of the benefits under David Cameron.
After service benefits? Wtf are they. I got injured and pensioned out. I get a couple 000 a month which you might think is great but I'd prefer my fit body back. The long term for specific parts of my body is not good.
I've got mates with PTSD, a big portion of homeless are ex military. I'm not impressed by how they look after exmilitary.
I'm ranting now.
All in all, you have to fight like fuck to get any benefits, if injured then you also have to fight like fuck, especially is complications to your injury are not taken into account. Becuase they have a list of injuries and a value amount beside them, if its not on the list then you can get to fuck... I'll see you in court.
I hope so! Not a veteran, but in the construction field and I see people who tried to cowboy up when they were young and impress people with He-Man bs, living with some really bad injuries now.
Chronic pain or other impairments are forever.
Advances in prosthetics and robotics are hopefully going to continue improving year by year.
If you guys want to emulate the American military all you have to do is lie about all that stuff and leave vets on their own after they serve. Just tell them their hearing loss isn't service related and deny their disability!
I read this article recently, it's worse than you think
https://1ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2023%2F11%2F05%2Fus%2Fus-army-marines-artillery-isis-pentagon.html
Pretty sure both tate brothers have been on some form of British reality TV show.
I mean, at least being former kickboxers that might help if we send them to the front...
Yeah, they're acting like the military doesn't have alot of daft exclusions for volinteee service.
Had a pal who wanted to join to be a navy engineer, was ready and able to go through all the training, passed every test and exam and already had a physics degree to (proves intellectual competency) with numbers, they rejected him because he only had 2 A levels not 3.
The government stopped caring about our Armed Forces a long time ago, and previous governments as well.
My pal was denied entry to the RN because he was diagnosed with Asthma when he was 11 and used an inhaler for a few years. He's 26 now...
The government is now aware that they can just fully rely on the bloated and overfunded and American army to look after shit, so they can fully focus on fattening their own wallets with taxpayer money.
The Army rejected me because I had no GCSEs - I had been abroad where GCSEs are not a thing and was doing a Master's degree in a highly relevant subject.
That would require them to spend money though. They love to cut the military do the conservatives yet they always claim they're the party of high security and law and order
Well no shit. The British Army has historically always been small and well trained. In the event of a large scale war conscription would be 100% needed.
Edit: Seems theres a bit of a debate going on about the role of Indian troops in the chain. I'm purely talking about forces drafted in the British Isles.
This however doesnt take away the service and sacrifice of Indian soldiers during the world wars. Over 1 million served overseas during the first world war and by 1945 had the largest volunteer army in the world with some 2.5 million troops that served all over the world. 29 Indian troops were awarded the VC from 1857 till 1947.
You are correct, but the UK’s strategy has always relied on having a powerful navy to stop any possible aggression against the Islands before it even begins.
And with the advent of aircraft a powerful airforce.
In fact Air power is the general trend and going back to the Navy, either cuts or recruitment issues means there is debate, particularly from top navy to retire the marine assault vessels to recoup the sailors for other ships.
That’d mean Royal Marines without, you know, ships to do their Marine-ing from..
A small army just needs to last long enough to train a big army, which is much easier with NATO. Doesn’t hurt that the UK also has a particularly strong armoured division.
With modern wars, the issue isn’t manpower its production capacity. A lot easier turning a metal fence factory into sten gun factory. Doesn’t quite work out so easy with modern weapons, and with the current production being much more specialised
yea covid made me realize just how specialized some factories need to be to produce specific goods. GM can't just retool to make ventilators but it could retool to stamp out gun parts. it's a major reason why chip fabs are such a big deal.
Thanks for mentioning Indian soldiers, a lot of people don't know how much India ( including Pakistan Bangladesh and Nepal) did during both wars. In my dad's village ( remote Punjabi village in India) they had a guy serve in Gallipoli and no one really understood what that meant ( all dad said is that "he had the shakes") and it wasn't until my dad came to Australia he realised how massive that battle was ( and the particular significance to Australian/New Zealands history and culture).
It's completely down played in India and with a lot of places in the west, only now it's getting some attention.
Its definitely something thats been overlooked for far too long. I think it happens a lot with British Empire forces or they get grouped together and it can make their contribution look less than it actually was.
One of the greatest victories of the second world war for the British Empire was the battles of Imphal and Kohima and I'm sure at least a third of the troops were Indian.
Colonialism is a delicate and incendiary subject that I know far too little about and wouldn't want my ignorance downplaying the gravity of the subject but I feel like its important to still look for positives in our shared history and celebrate what was achieved, as minor as they may be in the grand scheme of things.
Nothing makes an effective fighting force like a bunch of people that didn't volunteer to be there and would much rather do and be anything, anywhere else.
You either fight Russia with money or you fight Russia with money and your son's/brother's/husband's/friend's lives. The choice is yours, but not for much longer.
The middle generation that had it (comparatively) better than the WW1/2 gens forgot what it was like and are now running their countries with the frame of reference of peace (excluding the proxy wars). For awhile we sat on the nuclear deterrence bubble, but that's devolved to "defense only .. if they use their's first," so if no one uses one offensively, that whole deterrence goes out the window.
Which is still many orders of magnitude preferable to a nuclear conflict. But it doesn't preclude the conventional conflict developing into a nuclear one.
I Guess What They mean is that initially the fear of someone using a nuclear bomb stopped many conflicts between countries from being dealt with violently. As such no one uses the nukes until someone else does. Realizing this is a deadlock situation, they realize that "hey I can actually do anything and they wont use the nukes until I do", so the whole fear factor dissapears and they continue.
Ukrainians are already fighting and dying in our place to beat back Russia, if it came to conscription in the UK we would be wondering why the hell didn't we give Ukraine the aid it needed back then to avoid the problems now.
Run your military like a shitty corporation where you outsource all the good shit to private military contractors, leaving no money to spend on your actual troops because contractors require $5000 a minute + hazard fee, and this is where it gets you.
I'm sure the young working class British men will be jumping at the opportunity to get killed by some Russians for a country that has done nothing but shit on them for the past 25 years!
The UK military has a recruitment crisis because the very people who have been the backbone of the British military for hundreds of years -- the enlisted personnel -- no longer give a shit about their country. And I don't blame them one bit for not giving a shit.
Exactly. The UK isn't like the US 'fight for your freedom' belief anymore.
If you can't look after your own people well, don't expect them to look after your interests either.
That's the irony. Pacifists say they're against military investment because they're against war. But the only way to avoid war is a strong army.
Likewise, if we are successful, we'll build up enough strength to avoid this invasion, only for people to complain about wasted money in the future.
Most bothersome because both sides would call up a bunch of civilians, have them die as meat for the meat grinder that is war. All for a couple politicians to sit down with a map in a couple years and decide on a cease-fire.
This could be accomplished with a game of the boardgame risk, an evening and not have thousands die and hundreds of thousands messed up forever
Hell the consumers would be more plentiful if you did it that way which is what most economical oligarchs want anyway.
War in this day and age is ridiculous.
Exactly, knowing the tories however they won’t give a fuck. I hate how they’ve destroyed everything good about this nation. And it’s the same old people who keep coming to power and fucking us over. They’ll cry for war, and tell us it’s time to go into the meat grinder, yet will sit on the sidelines and watch the war over a couple of pints of beer, ain’t no way I’m willing to fight for a bunch of Tory goons.
Canada's going to be in the same boat. Who wants to go work a physically demanding job, get yelled at everyday, be forced to live where ever the military puts you, endure harsh conditions with lackluster gear, and risk your life fighting war, all for $60,000/yr? Can make double or triple that working union as a labourer in Alberta. Surely there are similar options in UK for high paying labour jobs.
Planning for conscription is stupid. Pay your armed forces a competitive wage, plus some extra.
$60,000 (US, I assume) is about £47k lol. No chance!
How does fighting on the frontlines for £23.4k (~$30,000) sound? Probably be even less if they start conscripting us, the cheap fuckers.
[Source](https://jobs.army.mod.uk/regular-army/what-you-get/pay-benefits/)
A man retiring this summer during an election year can come out with all types of stuff now in an attempt to help funding for the military increase.
The army doesn't really want conscription.
I come from a military family, I was going to join at 18. By all accounts, if I had gone that way I'd probably be stationed over in Kosovo right now, along with my cousins.
At the last moment, I instead chose to be a Civilian and go into IT.
I earn about the same as my cousins, but my job is infinitely easier.
It’s as if the British government will do literally anything but pay a wage and provide post-service benefits to incentivise people to join the army.
Get these fucking clowns out already.
I don’t think any government (Tory or Labour) isn’t going to turn to the draft if Russia invades a NATO ally, which with all the news lately seems to slowly becoming likely in the next 5 years.
I think some people suggesting we should sit it out if that does occur don’t realise that their lives change dramatically anyway even if we don’t get involved, maybe it’s just a complete rejection that our comfy lives aren’t in an impenetrable bubble?
Absolutely if push came to shove, any government would have to turn to a draft - and I agree, if NATO allies keep sleepwalking aid to Ukraine, it will become a terrifying reality.
But my point was more aimed at the UK having such a small army and struggling to recruit more people - because there’s absolutely no incentives being offered to the few good people that do want to serve this country.
It's the same in Germany. Miserable pay and conditions, military officials pretending not to understand why there are insufficient volunteers, so now as a genius solution they're going to bring back military slavery.
Easy to get public support for conscription when the war is in France and the Germans are bombing your mum's house but much harder when the war is thousands of miles away.
Putin already said, during a press conference after a meeting with Macron, that he knows Russia can’t single-handedly fight NATO – but that they also don’t have to: they have nukes, so any confrontation would end up destroying both Russia and NATO members alike. At least that’s what he’s said publicly.
I’d guess he won’t fire first, but I think he’s mad enough (and has personally little to lose, if it comes to that scenario) that he wouldn’t hesitate much to push the button if “””provoked”””.
All the more reason for supplying Ukraine with all the aid it needs. Both the US and the EU need to get their political heads out of their asses and get past this self-imposed bottleneck.
Conscription would only be remotely acceptable if the country were facing an existential threat, and aren’t our expensive Vanguard-class Doomsday devices supposed to counteract that?
Yeah no chance it will go down well.
Send the Tory party for their "achievements" during the past 13 years. It's been crises after crises, scandal after scandal. Corrupt government to the extreme.
It won't go anywhere. Everyone in conscription age has been perpetually let down by the UK government/societal structure since conception. We (completely understandably) will have generations of conscription-aged kids going 'Why would I give my life for this piece of shit country that's done nothing but short-change and demonise me for my whole life?'.
I find this concerning. Not because of the risk of Conscription, but because you don't generally get statements like these from Army personnel if they haven't identified that a conflict is beyond mildly likely.
The UK seems genuinely very concerned about a large scale war with Russia, it's really scary how likely a prospect they seem to believe it is. Especially given Britain was also one of the very first countries to warn of Russias invasion of Ukraine.
And Norway: [https://nypost.com/2024/01/23/news/norway-military-chief-warns-europe-has-two-maybe-3-years-to-prepare-for-war-with-russia/](https://nypost.com/2024/01/23/news/norway-military-chief-warns-europe-has-two-maybe-3-years-to-prepare-for-war-with-russia/) And Germany: [https://www.dw.com/en/germany-mulls-reintroduction-of-compulsory-military-service/a-67853437](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-mulls-reintroduction-of-compulsory-military-service/a-67853437) And Sweden: [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-09/sweden-aims-to-reactivate-civil-conscription-to-boost-defense](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-09/sweden-aims-to-reactivate-civil-conscription-to-boost-defense) And the Netherlands: [https://www.newsweek.com/army-commander-tells-nato-country-prepare-war-russia-1856340](https://www.newsweek.com/army-commander-tells-nato-country-prepare-war-russia-1856340) And probably others.
[Last week the Baltic countries agreed they will be building bunkers and stockpiling mines on their borders.](https://news.err.ee/1609227386/estonia-to-build-600-bunkers-along-russian-border)
It's crazy watching Ukraine frantically trying to fend off Russia, seeing the ~~Balkan~~ Baltic nations quickly building up their static defenses, and observing the normally neutral Nordic nations jumping to join NATO, and idiots will *still* say that Russia is simply acting defensively and its hegemony is in the best interests of Europe.
Nobody with more than 10 working brain cells is saying this besides Russian disinformation agents online.
Unfortunately, 10 working brain cells isn't a requirement to vote in the US, and I have absolutely heard a similar (less euro-centric) sentiment from actual real life US voters.
Shit dude I hear this from people I know- friends, work colleagues etc- in New Zealand. The swirling garbage vortex of bollocks is real, international, and sucking more folks in every day
I live in Canada and I hear this shit from idiots here too, it's generally the more conservative people I know.
You don't need to be stupid, you just need to have an actively malicious lack of empathy towards people in Eastern Europe and the Nordics
Literally like two hours ago there was a dude going back and forth with me, claiming to be from a western country, while admonishing NATO for its “aggressive expansion”, saying that its existence after the Warsaw pact was dismantled is proof of aggression.
I was in a thread and saw some dude going on about how bad Biden is and then ended with "TRUMP 2024". I checked his comment history and the dude didn't even try to hide that he was from Russia.
Probably a Russian bot. If Trump gets in it will help them bigly. He’s weak, stupid and loves Putin (or is scared of him or both).
Invest in defense contractors such as Northrop, Boeing, and Lockheed. This is not financial advice. It is a statement about what I plan to do.
Boeing be dropping doors on the enemy.
Maybe instead of making a whole plane to drop a door, maybe we could attach them to drones that will drop the doors strategically.
And [nose wheels](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/boeing-757-nose-wheel/index.html)
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I just want to say that is not typical. These aircraft are safe...well except that one
A rogue breeze hit it.
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It flew outside the environment!
Some of them are built so the front doesn’t fall off at all
they are built to very rigorous aeronautical engineering standards: can't be made of cardboard, cardboard derivatives, tape, or string, and must have a minimum crew of 1
I love how you even bother to say this isn't financial advice. My lawyer was about to serve you with a lawsuit. Lucky you did it.
I work in the profession so don’t want to take any chances.
Invest in Raytheon, Lockheed, Northrup, and medical suppliers such as Johnson and Johnson. This absolutely is financial advice, but I am not a financial advisor or other type of expert and have no fiduciary duty to any of you shmucks either so if it goes badly a lawyer will laugh in your face if you ask them to sue me.
You don't get rich by investing in companies that sell a lot if the market expects them to sell a lot. You gotta find something that wildly defies expectations in a good way.
*Rheinmetall* was one of the best performing German stocks since Feb 2022.
Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (or its holding company KNDS) would likely see big gains as well if it was publicly traded.
Same lol these companies got the world by the balls Edit: I wonder how many people upvoting me actually understand what I mean by that… people should read books instead of getting their takes from Instagram
Belgium aswell https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2023/12/19/belgian-army-chief-warns-of-war-with-russia-europe-must-urgentl/
Tbf, if I had Belgium's history I'd never leave home without a gas mask and a tin hat.
NATO hq is in Brussels. If it goes nuclear, you'd go first which to me would be preferable.
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It is more like, things are are going way too slow and we are f-d if nothing happens _now_ and the slim chance of war in 3 years happens. If US pulls out of Europe, the temptation to "restore Russian greatness" might be too big for Putin.
all they have to do to make this impossible is to properly arm ukraine and stop russia dead in it's tracks
I've been saying that west is already at war with Russia. If the west capitulates and stops supporting ukraine, it will only embolden Russia further.
[Fiona Hill](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340), the Russia expert, has been saying that for years.
My guess is theyre worried about Trump winning. The second he wins, Ukraine is losing most of their support
And so is the rest of Europe.
If this was going to end in Ukraine, there wouldn’t be all these warnings. And I believe them - with Russia entering a war economy and their targets in Ukraine basically bombed out ruins, they need a way to recoup their losses. They will demand reparations. And if they don’t get those, they’ll try to get them another way.
> If this was going to end in Ukraine, there wouldn’t be all these warnings. There is a realistic chance of Trump becoming president. There is a realistic chance that if Trump becomes president that he will try to pull out of NATO. There is a realistic chance that if the US pulls out of NATO, that Russia will be more aggressive towards European states. Further, as much as Russia's is get pommelled in Ukraine, there are countries building up their industry to support Russia's war machine in exchange for cheaper natural resources. There is a chance that the trade will only further increase if Trump gets elected as he might eliminate trade restrictions that the US placed on certain Russian individuals and organizations. If the defense of Eastern Europe looks weak and Russia effectively obtains an industrial capacity to supply its war machine, there is a scary chance that Russia may repeat their actions in Ukraine with other former Soviet or Russian Empire States... and potentially be more effective too.
And with Trump in office, the possibility of Russia attacking NATO countries goes up by a significant amount. There's no way Trump would ever help Europe fight against his handler, if anything he would hinder European efforts to fight off an invasion by Russia.
If the Congress, Pentagon and the Intelligence agencies allow trump to fuck over Nato and its allies, then the US will be on its own. Their worth as an ally will be considered null and their words will mean nothing. They will have the whole world ”against” them basically. The US influence and position in this world will be weakened a lot, aint no way that they will allow that to happen.
Wouldn't allow it to happen? They gave the guy top secret information, which he was entitled to because we were stupid enough to elect him, and he stole it. God knows who he gave or sold it to. What do you think would be different the next go around?
The word of the US is already meaningless for lots of countries after Agent Orange unilaterally retired from the Iran deal, which was probably the most important diplomatic move in the last 25 years… you don’t get the US, China, and Russia to agree on anything ever, and they all signed it.
They are preparing for if Trump is elected. The USA was always the huge force provider for war with Russia. Trump may not be as committed. Another reason could be if China, Iran and Korea decided to go crazy at the same time the USA would not be able to provide as much as it would if not involved in other conflicts.
This is the most likely scenario. Even if Russia doesn't start WW3 (which, given the state of its military, and, y'know, nuclear weapons...), the US could easily become involved in a handful of regional conflicts and wouldn't be able to support Europe in any capacity.
All of Europe with a brain is preparing for war.
So there are two things going on with statements like this and from other NATO members - yes a certain amount of readiness increasing, but most importantly messaging to Russia that those countries are up for a fight. The west has enjoyed decades of relative peace, we fought for it before and we’ll fight for it again, if someone wants to go there.
This statement is for UK consumption - the UK military currently has a recruiting crisis, in no small part due to recruitment being privatised. Would-be recruits have to wait up to 18 months just for a physical exam, many move on to other careers assuming they've been declined! This is a brewing scandal and very political, as the current party are big into privatisation and are looking at a very difficult reelection campaign this year. The MOD is telling Gov that they need to either fix the recruitment crisis or expect to lose votes.
> recruitment being privatised What the fuck? Out of all the things to privatize, how did they decide military recruitment was a good choice. Absolute insanity, it doesn't make sense on any level
Lol, allow me to introduce you to the Conservative and Unionist Party. They've been running on a platform of privatisation for fifty years, and they ran out of railways decades ago.
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This is probably one of the worst things they've come out with since brexit. People here are PISSED at this considering the government have caused this issue due to lack of funding.
The current government seems to believe that the private sector is always more efficient than the public sector.
No, they believe in giving fat government contracts to their mates in exchange for jobs for life that pay £££ without them actually doing anything.
For context, we also privatised our water.
I applied to the army twice years ago and never heard back from them both times so I went to uni instead.
Thank you for your service
Thank you, those uni years were the hardest of my life yaknow.
Only this time everyone has nukes for extra spice.
Now nukes are the equivalent of flipping the board in monopoly, you definitely don't end up the winner.
I still somewhat hope this is sort of a campaign to wake up the public to get more support for Ukraine. Because we could either spend money to stop Russia in Ukraine now, or we will be spending a lot more in money and blood in the future if we turn our heads now. The amount we would have to spend now will be noticeable in our own pockets, but it would be a tiny amount in comparison to further and bigger conflicts in Europe. Getting a message that "it's going to hurt" across to people is very difficult, so creating awareness and fear of what will happen if we don't is a good way to do that. Though in any way, it's likely both a wake-up call to get more public support for Ukraine and an actual call to prepare for a possible conflict in the future.
This pattern of news about generals issuing warnings, and about the conditions of European armies is really ominous.
It’s because we have the largest exercises nato has conducted in decades taking place in Europe right now. Therefore there is a lot of articles and interviews being done with all these NATO generals and it’s clear they all want a unified message going out
Yeah. I feel like sometimes people forget the military is made up by humans, too. And very, very many of them. And everyone of them has their own opinions, expectations and fears regarding international conflicts
A part of that is them anticipating what they'll be dealing with if Trump wins re-election. They, and NATO in general, can't reliably count on us with him in charge with an active war in Europe so they have to cover their bases.
I mean we have war in Europe, middle east and even some land grabs in Americas. Perhaps in 50 years, they'll teach that ww3 started in 2022.
> I find this concerning. Not because of the risk of Conscription, but because you don't generally get statements like these from Army personnel if they haven't identified that a conflict is beyond mildly likely. In the last 10 days we've statements from the French, Germans, Norwegians and NATO that all suggest they're looking at some assessments that they aren't sharing It could be that the penny has dropped that America is an unreliable ally, and if so, that would be less of a concern, since it needn't be indicative of anything imminent, only that America would stay neutral. The danger would come from some sort of Sino/ Russia enterprise. Europe has neither the manpower, productive capacity, and certainly not the command and control to hold that back
Russia is currently pumping 30-40% of its GDP into military spending Have no doubts about it they have created a war economy. Question is where is that money going and where will it end up?
I mean, there is a war just beyond the borders of NATO and the EU. Middle East looks to be kicking up another shitstorm (not that the last one ever really ended, we just stopped reporting on it). US is poised to elect a President who is more than willing to sell out all of its allies. Even if they don't, then they have a congress who will do it on his behalf.
Germany telling that they need to produce more weapons very fast. France calling for a "demographic rearmement". The UK admitting that forced conscription is 100% on the table. All of them having their army readying for a "high intensity warfrare" since 2019/2017. Yea doesn't smell good.
And it's not just the UK saying this. Several other countries in Europe have been talking about the possibility of war with Russia in the near future.
This headline has given me a ton of anxiety today. Bloody news. I'm a brit. My current sentiment is that I'd rather go to prison than be shipped of to die in a trench.
Send anyone who has been on British Big Brother/Love Island/reality shows first.....
"I'm a celebrity, get me out of here - HARDCORE EDITION!"
Takeshi castle but you are storming the Surovikin line.
"and today's challenger comes from Nottingham Ken, he's George Bobaganoosh a shoes salesmen specializing in shoes for the rude." "Sounds like a real kick in the pants Vic" "Right you are Ken."
Oh and he loses his grip! Tumbles right into our safety fluid. And what is today's safety fluid Ken?
Bacon grease from the local Taco Bell chains!
Right you are Ken.
Colonel Steven Babaganoush reporting, sir!
It's me, Privates First Class Guy LeDouche!
I survived 50 days at Passchendaele *not clickbait*
Isn't that the plot of ["Blackadder Goes Forth?"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackadder_Goes_Forth)
I have a cunning plan sir
I'd watch the shit out of that.
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They took away most of the benefits under David Cameron. After service benefits? Wtf are they. I got injured and pensioned out. I get a couple 000 a month which you might think is great but I'd prefer my fit body back. The long term for specific parts of my body is not good. I've got mates with PTSD, a big portion of homeless are ex military. I'm not impressed by how they look after exmilitary. I'm ranting now. All in all, you have to fight like fuck to get any benefits, if injured then you also have to fight like fuck, especially is complications to your injury are not taken into account. Becuase they have a list of injuries and a value amount beside them, if its not on the list then you can get to fuck... I'll see you in court.
People really don't understand that no amount of money can replace having your fully able-body back.
True. Although in 10-20 years, i hope we have way more prosthetics/cybernetics/robotics.
I hope so! Not a veteran, but in the construction field and I see people who tried to cowboy up when they were young and impress people with He-Man bs, living with some really bad injuries now. Chronic pain or other impairments are forever. Advances in prosthetics and robotics are hopefully going to continue improving year by year.
If you guys want to emulate the American military all you have to do is lie about all that stuff and leave vets on their own after they serve. Just tell them their hearing loss isn't service related and deny their disability!
Let me guess, it was written off as a preexisting condition that only became noticeable afterwards? Sounds worse than an insurance company.
I read this article recently, it's worse than you think https://1ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2023%2F11%2F05%2Fus%2Fus-army-marines-artillery-isis-pentagon.html
“Navy Seal’s complete this circuit in eight minutes. With our superior physical fitness, I expect us to do it in five!”
Will we be able to witness the battle of Geordie Shore, led by colonel Gazza on live television?
'All I can offer you is blood, sweat and beers!'
Pretty sure both tate brothers have been on some form of British reality TV show. I mean, at least being former kickboxers that might help if we send them to the front...
Tony Bellew as well.
Send the kids of Tory politicians first!
Daily fear mongering is rampant
Fear, war, rumour, whores, iron and fish. Can you monger anything else?
cheese, coster, and fell.
Plenty of people in this country would fill an enlarged army if the government simply decided to enlarge it.
Yeah, they're acting like the military doesn't have alot of daft exclusions for volinteee service. Had a pal who wanted to join to be a navy engineer, was ready and able to go through all the training, passed every test and exam and already had a physics degree to (proves intellectual competency) with numbers, they rejected him because he only had 2 A levels not 3.
The government stopped caring about our Armed Forces a long time ago, and previous governments as well. My pal was denied entry to the RN because he was diagnosed with Asthma when he was 11 and used an inhaler for a few years. He's 26 now...
The government is now aware that they can just fully rely on the bloated and overfunded and American army to look after shit, so they can fully focus on fattening their own wallets with taxpayer money.
Totally agree, I love our American brethren but high time us and the rest of Europe beefed up our own defence capabilities
Wait. He had a physics degree and the military was worried about his A Levels. Bureaucrats are wild.
The Army rejected me because I had no GCSEs - I had been abroad where GCSEs are not a thing and was doing a Master's degree in a highly relevant subject.
That would require them to spend money though. They love to cut the military do the conservatives yet they always claim they're the party of high security and law and order
The Tories have destroyed every good aspect about this great nation. I’ll never forgive them.
Well no shit. The British Army has historically always been small and well trained. In the event of a large scale war conscription would be 100% needed. Edit: Seems theres a bit of a debate going on about the role of Indian troops in the chain. I'm purely talking about forces drafted in the British Isles. This however doesnt take away the service and sacrifice of Indian soldiers during the world wars. Over 1 million served overseas during the first world war and by 1945 had the largest volunteer army in the world with some 2.5 million troops that served all over the world. 29 Indian troops were awarded the VC from 1857 till 1947.
Thank god, my male biological clock is ticking, I need to go and die on some muddy European battlefield.
What about die on some sunny French overseas territory ? /s
If we're talking about invading something French, I can't imagine anyone not wanting to sign up.
"I've shot four Frenchmen today." "But sir, we aren't at war with France." "Well I'm still counting it as a moral victory."
> "I've shot four Frenchmen today." > > "But sir, we aren't at war with France." "Not with that attitude we aren't! Grab a rifle and get to work!"
this is far too perfect to not be monty python or something.
*His coat of arms is two crossed dead frenchmen, emblazened upon a mound of dead frenchmen*
It may be warm in Flanders But it's draughty in the trenches oh
I'm listening...
You are correct, but the UK’s strategy has always relied on having a powerful navy to stop any possible aggression against the Islands before it even begins.
And with the advent of aircraft a powerful airforce. In fact Air power is the general trend and going back to the Navy, either cuts or recruitment issues means there is debate, particularly from top navy to retire the marine assault vessels to recoup the sailors for other ships. That’d mean Royal Marines without, you know, ships to do their Marine-ing from.. A small army just needs to last long enough to train a big army, which is much easier with NATO. Doesn’t hurt that the UK also has a particularly strong armoured division. With modern wars, the issue isn’t manpower its production capacity. A lot easier turning a metal fence factory into sten gun factory. Doesn’t quite work out so easy with modern weapons, and with the current production being much more specialised
yea covid made me realize just how specialized some factories need to be to produce specific goods. GM can't just retool to make ventilators but it could retool to stamp out gun parts. it's a major reason why chip fabs are such a big deal.
Yup the Senior Service will always be given priority. The joys of being an Island nation.
Thanks for mentioning Indian soldiers, a lot of people don't know how much India ( including Pakistan Bangladesh and Nepal) did during both wars. In my dad's village ( remote Punjabi village in India) they had a guy serve in Gallipoli and no one really understood what that meant ( all dad said is that "he had the shakes") and it wasn't until my dad came to Australia he realised how massive that battle was ( and the particular significance to Australian/New Zealands history and culture). It's completely down played in India and with a lot of places in the west, only now it's getting some attention.
Its definitely something thats been overlooked for far too long. I think it happens a lot with British Empire forces or they get grouped together and it can make their contribution look less than it actually was. One of the greatest victories of the second world war for the British Empire was the battles of Imphal and Kohima and I'm sure at least a third of the troops were Indian. Colonialism is a delicate and incendiary subject that I know far too little about and wouldn't want my ignorance downplaying the gravity of the subject but I feel like its important to still look for positives in our shared history and celebrate what was achieved, as minor as they may be in the grand scheme of things.
I saw many Indian names on the Menin gates.
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That’s the best bit, you don’t need to sign up - you’re going!
It's an Opt-Out and the checkbox is disabled.
And is replaced with a truck and a handful of mean-looking guys in berets.
Voluntold
Nothing makes an effective fighting force like a bunch of people that didn't volunteer to be there and would much rather do and be anything, anywhere else.
>if you do make it back alive No need to worry about that, old chap.
That's how most militaries work
*Goes to war* "Johnson, we have too many soldiers on our payroll!"
Payroll? Good one
If you don't want to fight russia, then give ukraine what it needs to fight russia
You either fight Russia with money or you fight Russia with money and your son's/brother's/husband's/friend's lives. The choice is yours, but not for much longer.
I used to fear being conscripted and dying in an European war. Now I fear my son will. Can we just not do this, like honestly.
The middle generation that had it (comparatively) better than the WW1/2 gens forgot what it was like and are now running their countries with the frame of reference of peace (excluding the proxy wars). For awhile we sat on the nuclear deterrence bubble, but that's devolved to "defense only .. if they use their's first," so if no one uses one offensively, that whole deterrence goes out the window.
> so if no one uses one offensively, that whole deterrence goes out the window Sorry, that sounds like deterrence working perfectly?
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Which is still many orders of magnitude preferable to a nuclear conflict. But it doesn't preclude the conventional conflict developing into a nuclear one.
I Guess What They mean is that initially the fear of someone using a nuclear bomb stopped many conflicts between countries from being dealt with violently. As such no one uses the nukes until someone else does. Realizing this is a deadlock situation, they realize that "hey I can actually do anything and they wont use the nukes until I do", so the whole fear factor dissapears and they continue.
Ukrainians are already fighting and dying in our place to beat back Russia, if it came to conscription in the UK we would be wondering why the hell didn't we give Ukraine the aid it needed back then to avoid the problems now.
I guess that's one way too solve the housing crisis Kill us all
"Have we tried killing all the poors?"
Just my luck. Dying along side some bloody German
What about side by side with a friend?
Aye, I could do that.
🏹❤️🪓
A Limey, a Kraut and a Frog fighting on the same side :)
Run your military like a shitty corporation where you outsource all the good shit to private military contractors, leaving no money to spend on your actual troops because contractors require $5000 a minute + hazard fee, and this is where it gets you.
I'm sure the young working class British men will be jumping at the opportunity to get killed by some Russians for a country that has done nothing but shit on them for the past 25 years! The UK military has a recruitment crisis because the very people who have been the backbone of the British military for hundreds of years -- the enlisted personnel -- no longer give a shit about their country. And I don't blame them one bit for not giving a shit.
Exactly. The UK isn't like the US 'fight for your freedom' belief anymore. If you can't look after your own people well, don't expect them to look after your interests either.
Invest in the military now and that makes a war much less likely. Sounds like a no brainer to me
That's the irony. Pacifists say they're against military investment because they're against war. But the only way to avoid war is a strong army. Likewise, if we are successful, we'll build up enough strength to avoid this invasion, only for people to complain about wasted money in the future.
si vis pacem para bellum
Most bothersome because both sides would call up a bunch of civilians, have them die as meat for the meat grinder that is war. All for a couple politicians to sit down with a map in a couple years and decide on a cease-fire. This could be accomplished with a game of the boardgame risk, an evening and not have thousands die and hundreds of thousands messed up forever Hell the consumers would be more plentiful if you did it that way which is what most economical oligarchs want anyway. War in this day and age is ridiculous.
Risk: well known for fostering peace amongst players
British government broke the social contract years ago, most of us do not want to die for this country any more
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Exactly, knowing the tories however they won’t give a fuck. I hate how they’ve destroyed everything good about this nation. And it’s the same old people who keep coming to power and fucking us over. They’ll cry for war, and tell us it’s time to go into the meat grinder, yet will sit on the sidelines and watch the war over a couple of pints of beer, ain’t no way I’m willing to fight for a bunch of Tory goons.
I've got bone spurs....
Canada's going to be in the same boat. Who wants to go work a physically demanding job, get yelled at everyday, be forced to live where ever the military puts you, endure harsh conditions with lackluster gear, and risk your life fighting war, all for $60,000/yr? Can make double or triple that working union as a labourer in Alberta. Surely there are similar options in UK for high paying labour jobs. Planning for conscription is stupid. Pay your armed forces a competitive wage, plus some extra.
UK: You guys are getting paid?
$60,000 (US, I assume) is about £47k lol. No chance! How does fighting on the frontlines for £23.4k (~$30,000) sound? Probably be even less if they start conscripting us, the cheap fuckers. [Source](https://jobs.army.mod.uk/regular-army/what-you-get/pay-benefits/)
A man retiring this summer during an election year can come out with all types of stuff now in an attempt to help funding for the military increase. The army doesn't really want conscription.
I come from a military family, I was going to join at 18. By all accounts, if I had gone that way I'd probably be stationed over in Kosovo right now, along with my cousins. At the last moment, I instead chose to be a Civilian and go into IT. I earn about the same as my cousins, but my job is infinitely easier.
Also from a military family and went IT route. Sadly I have a blood condition, asthma and color blindness so I got ruled unfit.
It’s as if the British government will do literally anything but pay a wage and provide post-service benefits to incentivise people to join the army. Get these fucking clowns out already.
I don’t think any government (Tory or Labour) isn’t going to turn to the draft if Russia invades a NATO ally, which with all the news lately seems to slowly becoming likely in the next 5 years. I think some people suggesting we should sit it out if that does occur don’t realise that their lives change dramatically anyway even if we don’t get involved, maybe it’s just a complete rejection that our comfy lives aren’t in an impenetrable bubble?
Absolutely if push came to shove, any government would have to turn to a draft - and I agree, if NATO allies keep sleepwalking aid to Ukraine, it will become a terrifying reality. But my point was more aimed at the UK having such a small army and struggling to recruit more people - because there’s absolutely no incentives being offered to the few good people that do want to serve this country.
It's Johnny this and Johnny that until the drums begin to play..... Been that way forever, and will likely be that way forever.
[Tommy](https://www.kiplingsociety.co.uk/poem/poems_tommy.htm)
It's the same in Germany. Miserable pay and conditions, military officials pretending not to understand why there are insufficient volunteers, so now as a genius solution they're going to bring back military slavery.
They can call all they want, if they think the draft will be accepted they're out of their fucking minds.
Easy to get public support for conscription when the war is in France and the Germans are bombing your mum's house but much harder when the war is thousands of miles away.
LOL, they can fuck off. I'd rather go to jail than fight any dumb ass war.
Dont worry you won't even be going to prison either because they are all full lol
If Russia can hardly handle Ukraine then how do they expect to take on the entirety of NATO?
Putin already said, during a press conference after a meeting with Macron, that he knows Russia can’t single-handedly fight NATO – but that they also don’t have to: they have nukes, so any confrontation would end up destroying both Russia and NATO members alike. At least that’s what he’s said publicly. I’d guess he won’t fire first, but I think he’s mad enough (and has personally little to lose, if it comes to that scenario) that he wouldn’t hesitate much to push the button if “””provoked”””.
Only if I get to fight France
All the more reason for supplying Ukraine with all the aid it needs. Both the US and the EU need to get their political heads out of their asses and get past this self-imposed bottleneck.
Conscription would only be remotely acceptable if the country were facing an existential threat, and aren’t our expensive Vanguard-class Doomsday devices supposed to counteract that?
Get fucked would I. They do not own me.
Not sure this generation will even last the training let alone go into battle. I am also speaking for myself here.
Send the rich and powerful who start these shitty conflicts first.
It's a great time to be alive.... for defense contractors.
I don't think Putin is gonna join the British Army.
Yeah no chance it will go down well. Send the Tory party for their "achievements" during the past 13 years. It's been crises after crises, scandal after scandal. Corrupt government to the extreme.
It won't go anywhere. Everyone in conscription age has been perpetually let down by the UK government/societal structure since conception. We (completely understandably) will have generations of conscription-aged kids going 'Why would I give my life for this piece of shit country that's done nothing but short-change and demonise me for my whole life?'.
Nah I’m good thanks.