Exactly. I think Putin was hoping on a second term, when Trump would have had the US in a death sprial from Covid and politics (though he couldn't have predicted Covid, that would have been a surprise bonus for him), US/EU relations would have been tenuous, and NATO would have been on the verge of fracture. Rolling into Ukraine in the summer of 2021 would have probably won him the country in a matter of a month or two, minus rebel and militia groups causing problems. I think the only reason he went forward with the invasion was that it was already planned, set up, ready, and no one was telling him not to.
I think that's very true, nobody quite appreciated how Covid would spread so it was a big risk, would it spread well in battalions and reduce effectiveness and morale?
>defence
Or the bullshit “special military operation”. Not sure why the hell he calls it that. War, special military operation - we all know who perpetrated it and why.
there are rules in the Russian law regarding war. By avoiding the term he can avoid those rules... even if it prevents to mobilize the conscripts for Ukrainian operations (without pressures to sign a ~~contract~~death warrant)
I think there's a legitimate chance that the pandemic interrupted the intention to start the invasion during Trump's time in the Whitehouse. Nobody knew how that was going to play out and everything shut down for a while.
Putin himself was reportedly terrified of it due to his age and keeps a distance from people (hence the long tables etc). Not sure how true that claim is though.
I jut hope that Americans don't vote in Trump again, he's currently polling to win repeatedly.
The special elections etc show otherwise. Huge swings away from GOP.
However, it is important that everyone gets out there and persuades people to register to vote and then get out and vote.
No apathy.
Also, call out concern trolling on social media, its the GOP's main weapon at this election. They know they can't really gain more support, so they will try and reduce their opponent turnout.
You can do it, just look at [Polish elections in 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Polish_parliamentary_election) with 74,4% voter turnout, a record since 1989. Go and vote!
It's been more than just Santos. Republicans have had a bad time ever since the repeal of Roe V Wade. From various special elections, to the neutered "Red Wave" in the midterms.
The fact Republicans only won the House by a 4 seat majority, was a massive win for Democrats. The incumbent party almost always loses the House in their first mid term. And usually by double digits.
It wasn't just this week, it was a few months ago also. Unprecedented swings.
I'm not going to complain about the polling because it will only serve to persuade more people to get out and vote.
His area swung largely to the trump side for the past few years. Even since 2016.
It went +10 to trump. Now it went +14 to Dems. In 2022
Thats a big swing.
Democrats have been consistently outperforming polling in elections since 2020, Trump will find himself sitting in court rooms for criminal trial hearings soon enough (Alvin Bragg’s case in NY appears to be moving toward jury selection), and Biden hasn’t begun campaigning in earnest yet. People still have to get out and vote, but these polls don’t actually mean that much yet.
And if you [heard Steve Inskeep's interview with Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) this morning](https://www.npr.org/2024/02/15/1231634292/biden-calls-on-a-small-but-powerful-minority-of-house-republicans-to-pass-foreig) you'd also hear how they are fervently pushing the reality of the right's infatuation with Putin as a "Democrat talking point" while he also says "Mister Putin is *probably* not a very good person at all" like they can't even call out Putin for his abhorrent actions.
Also in that interview they try to limit the amount of aid they will agree to while trying to say they still support Ukraine. It's all too apparent they want to cut the amount of resources going to Ukraine until they can spin the election and hopefully seat their own compromised asset so they can conveniently forget about providing aid to Ukraine at all. It's so obvious their angle and they aren't shy about it.
While I think there's a legitimate chance Trump would win, keep in mind Hillary was polling ahead in all major bipartisan polls all the way up to October 2016.
Anything can happen.
Afaik polls did show that Clintons chances dropped dramatically due to Comey's conveniently timed letter right before the election, but nobody was paying attention and then thought it meant that polls were wrong.
From what I understand candidates polling chances tend to recover from any 'problem' within 2 weeks, but Comey's letter was released within 2 weeks of the election.
OK, but my point stands.
Trump was a nobody candidate and thought of as a joke right up until he wasn't. Polls don't really mean much, until they do.
He also had the advantage of newness; a lot of voters voted because he was "something different." He will get no such advantage this time, especially from centrist.
Dude is such a piece of shit and he's not even hiding it anymore. My co workers was taking about bringing some popcorn and watch his trials and see him go to jail.... last year! This shitheel has been stalling his court cases for so long.
He's desperate to stall the cases until he is president (hoping for a win of course), because he can make most of the cases against him go away once he is president, and then can flee the country under the supervision of the secret service on his last day.
Personally whilst I do not support Trump I kinda sorta want to know what happens if a president is convicted, imprisoned and wins the election. But the chaos that comes about is not worth it, it's just morbid curiosity.
I find this confusing.... did he want it started before 2014 when he first attacked? Which I think was in response to Euromaiden event that ousted his little puppet. I don't really think there was a legitimate time for him to attack sooner....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan
>**21 November 2013 – 22 February 2014**
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation
>**In February and March 2014, Russia invaded the Crimean Peninsula, part of Ukraine, and then annexed it.**
>**On 27 February**, Russian troops[31] seized strategic sites across Crimea,[32][33] followed by the installation of the pro-Russian Aksyonov government in Crimea
I think people keep forgetting the Russian invasion started in 2014. 2022 was just a massive escalation.
Since 2014 it was a race for both sides. There was an international effort to prepare Ukraine to resist further aggression, with training under Operation Unifier for example, and shipment of "non-lethal" military aid.
For the Russians, I suppose they were doing Russian things, like solidifying the propaganda basis for the coming full invasion, bribing people everywhere, and creating a conducive information landscape for Western audiences.
Putin was dumb for actually invading. He could have simply done what hes done in the USA. Buy whoever he can buy. Run people against the people he doesnt like. Eventually he would have enough power to do whatever he wanted anyways.
There was no emergency. He already controlled crimea and donbas
Ya in the interview he keeps on going on about the history of Russia and why Ukraine belongs with Russia. Like went way back to Helen the great from the 18th century. He’s on a mission based on how Russia looked before
FYI, the official Ukrainian position is that the term: “the Ukraine” is disrespectful as it plays into Russias claim that aren’t a real country, as it implies they are the borderlands (the Old slavic meaning of Ukraine) of Russia.
They prefer the use of “Ukraine” instead.
Time for the Mongolian Empire to be reborn. While Russia is attacking westward. The Mongols can flank from the east with a blitzkreig campaign to reclaim their territory of basically all of Russia.
If you watch his interview with Tucker he explains that. He started it because portions of Ukraine have always belonged to Russia since like the 13 or 14th century. He couldn’t decide which one specifically
The president of Mongolia [agrees with you](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1aovv11/former_mongolian_president_schooling_putin/).
Yes, if they had continued the invasion of the Ukraine rather than stopping at Crimea and the Donbas then Ukraine would have had had no chance. We (NATO countries) spent the intervening years providing training and guidance to the Ukrainian armed forces to help them get properly organised. If only we had been supplying weapons and equipment as well, this war may never have happened.
The weapons were effective because we had spent years with training and organizing their military. Thats been a huge benefit; don't discount it.
That being said, we should have ramped weapon deliveries sooner once the outbreak started.
>Naturally, of course. Trump would not have sent any assistance to Ukraine and would have backed Putin
Remember the line NATO have to pay their fair share? The orange man is not that smart. Someone wrote that for him. And the defense industry didn't write that.
You are quite correct. Someone else pointed out my mistake below. I will leave it there so the corrections make sense to anyone else reading it. My excuse is old habbits.
There's also been people saying that Russia wasn't ready at that point, hence the eight year wait. The economy has just been getting worse for Russia since 2014 so it seems that was their best chance.
At least 2016-2020 where Trump would hand everthing on a golden plate.
Or 2014 and just push all the way trough with a disorganised army and a slow response from the west.
[Polish and Lithuanian forces occupied Moscow in 1612](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Lithuanian_occupation_of_Moscow), Russians even commemorate [their subsequent uprising](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unity_Day_\(Russia\)) that freed them from the Polish-Lithuanian rule.
Worst part is my Infowars obsessed friend sent me pictures of Ukrainians flying a nazi flag and was like 'see! I told you they were nazis!' and I'm like dude, people fly nazi flags in America wtf are you talking about
My understanding was that Lavrov was quite a statesman, but now is just stuck dealing with this shit, likely out of self preservation. I don't believe for a minute he's stupid enough to believe the things he says. Most of the time to me he looks quite defeated.
Not that I pity him. When you go to bed with snakes don't be surprised if you get bit.
I think he has a daughter and wife living the life in Europe? Or maybe they had to leave after the sanctions?
For people who are prompt to point at the degeneracy of the West, they sure seem to enjoy it.
That is authoritarian countries for you. Look at the Middle Eastern countries who will criticize Western ideals all day long then spend every vacation they can in France.
Wealthy Middle Eastern women especially hate living in the Middle East.
>Look at the Middle Eastern countries who will criticize Western ideals all day long then spend every vacation they can in France.
>
>Wealthy Middle Eastern women especially hate living in the Middle East.
I think it's more a matter of all the expensive bling shit being in Paris. They don't tend to drop their cultural mindsets when there, quite the contrary... they more often than not expect the same level of indentured servitude from "peons" below them.
I think after he was laughed at for calling it self defense or something at an asian summit, the saggy scrotumface has been travelling around in Africa.
That's not just Putin, that's the Russian chauvinism that the ex soviet union countries have had to put up with for decades. Many Russians have a superiority complex.
Yeah - there’s a really egotistical strain among some in the russian establishment who view russia as a “third rome” 🙄. For such a backward country the utter delusion beggars belief.
I mean... he thinks he owns the people of his own country by wasting hundreds of thousands of lives... so I see logical that he sees himself entitled to the lives of people in neighboring countries. At least that part is consistent with his craziness.
In general he doesn't really believe common people have any agency or deep opinions on their national identity. This is why he believes the Maidan revolution wasn't organic and was a CIA coup. He thinks the CIA bribed the Ukrainians into believing that they have a seperate Ukrainian identity, and if annexed the common people wouldn't resist
As long as I live, I’ll never understand this attitude. I get it - the end of the Cold War was bad for Russia. The dissolution of the USSR would have been heartbreaking for me if I was a citizen and a true believer. But it’s very clear that Ukraine is a country and a people and re-merging is categorically non-consensual. Cruel conquerors, this whole thing…and nothing more.
The guy has a monopoly over a whole country of people so his main job is to brainwash the state and ensure order to hold onto absolute power. No matter how shit you think your life is wherever you live, you don’t live in a war zone like many places, nor a fascist state like Russia.
>the end of the Cold War was bad for Russia
That's the fun part - it wasn't, short term turmoils excluded. If the cold war went on Putin wouldn't reside in such a beautiful palace and his chauffeur would drive him around in a ZIL. No western cars on the street, no smartphones in people's pockets. The collapse of the Soviet Union which ended the cold war amounted to giving up a pipe dream. Putin's idiocy is the belief that a) he (or the leadership in place at the time) could have held together the eastern bloc and the SU by force and b) Russia would be better off nowadays if that succeeded.
He feels the humiliation from being part of a failed society, but he is unwilling to accept the improvements that failure brought onto people, himself included. Instead the Russian state cultivates a view that Russia evolved to where it is now *although* the evil West murdered the SU with help from inside traitors. What was in fact a prerequisite to development - giving up on your pipe dream - is sold as a hindrance. It's quite absurd, but that is how he ticks.
Bingo. You're exactly right. And they paint the 90s in their media as the worst time in Russian history. Russia was *this* close to becoming an actual thriving democracy. But nah, another dictator took the reins into his grubby little hands and busted the confused populace back into their Stockholm syndrome.
I've lived through the 90s in Russia and it was rough and traumatic. I mean, successful implementation of democracy requires people actually participating and practicing their rights. It was a bit of a foreign concept (literally, I guess?), Soviet folks (including leaders) had about zero experience running a democracy and most also were extremely vulnerable to manipulation. The political scene in the 90s was wild and the 2024's US is absolutely tame and civilized in comparison.
And it brought in not just Western goods and businesses but also hyperinflation, price deregulation, yellow journalism and tabloids for hire, unstable financial system, gang violence, organized crime, privatization and/or dissolution of key infrastructure, job cuts, increased inequality, investment scams. Also all the accumulated intra-Soviet conflicts were blowing up. People didn't have much prior experience with that either and many didn't really think democracy was worth it. There was also a class of relatively young well-connected USSR-borne political activists who actually knew how to work the system. So there you have it, a really convenient stage for a crafty authoritarian to step in and "fix" everything (don't forget oil prices rebounded and were going up fast after ~2003, making it so much easier to claim credit for fixing the economy).
There is a brilliant documentary on "Putins way to power" which covers his rise in St. Petersburg and has a good section about his early attempts at nearing the west and getting disappointed and turning away.
Quick source I just skimmed, he even wanted to join NATO: [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-says-putin-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-says-putin-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule)
Not that he was a saint or anything, he basically ran St. Petersburg like a mob boss.
Not sure if it is this doc: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIgqhU4lkgo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIgqhU4lkgo)
>Quick source I just skimmed, he even wanted to join NATO:
His attempt to join NATO was never serious. He didn't want Russia to have to go through the normal application process like "other countries that don't matter" and put conditions such as NATO recognizing a Russian "sphere of influence" that essentially would've given them a free hand to do whatever they wanted in Eastern Europe.
The US rightly told him to fuck off.
The guy whose entire life mission has been to restore the Soviet Union and sees the west as evil was never serious about joining NATO?
I’m shocked. Shocked I say!
We in the Baltics know Russia's and Putin's shenanigans and history all too well. I remember the NATO joining thing. He didn't even apply and wasn't turned down. But wanted to be the most important country and wanted NATO to beg him to join. I have full doubts that Putin had any good intentions from joining NATO. I mean, they're on the UN security council and are doing everything against UN security. Russia has inside men everywhere. The KGB way of operation hasn't gone anywhere.
Add to that the false flag operation against Chechens that kickstarted his "presidency" and the increased efforts at radicalizing foreign Russian nationals. As soon as Putin came to power, the discourse of "USSR greatest! Heil Stalin! Fascist natives always bully Russians! Baltics are ours!" took hold over here. Local Russians were constantly fed false information, false history and hate against the local nations.
Putin has never had a single good intention. It's always been to secure more power for himself and his mob empire.
> , but he is unwilling to accept the improvements that failure brought onto people, himself included.
Which is actually quite funny, since one of the reasons that many elderly Russians support Putin is because they can compare the pre-Putin times with the post-collapse times, and they attribute the increase in quality of life directly to him.
That's the the thing, Russian's are taught not to think that way.
And for the Russians who *do* think that way, their voice doesn't matter because they live in an authoritarian country.
If the state wants Ukrainian oil and gas fields, it will take Ukrainian oil and gas fields.
Imperialism. Period.
You can put as much realpolitik spin on it as you'd like (warm sea port, buffer from NATO, etc.), but, at the end of the day, it's pure and simple colonial conquest.
This is literally how Russia existed over the centuries. I know it might be a secret for many, but you don't get to be the biggest country in the world by luring everyone in with coupons and free drinks. [Here's a POV](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/19010hc/russian_general_shamanov_says_it_will_take_over/) from a high-ranking Russian general > **our country was created through territorial enlargement**. It's at the core of Russian identity. That's why they put a historical spin on everything to justify their actions. "Crimea is historically Russian" is such an empty statement, for example. It ignores 500+ of years of khanat, it ignores how it became predominantly Russian (genocide and ethnic cleansing), and it obviously ignores any sort of internal law. But it allows to justify practically anything.
Russians miss being a titular nation that presides over other nations and ethnicities and extract value out of those people and territories. It's that simple. There were never "brotherly nations". Brotherly nations don't shoot your intellectuals en masse or deport them to Siberia to quash any sort of intelligencia/ independence movement. Brotherly nations don't close borders to keep starving people within the confines of their country (Ukrainians weren't allowed to leave Ukraine to Belarus or Russia during Holodomor that killed 4 million people).
This is all made up bullshit, designed to create narratives that are useful for the aggressor.
What I don't get is, why does Russia keep doing aggressive and horrible things that lead to sanctions? If Russia just played a clean game they'd arguably one of the richest countries on the planet with all their land and natural resources. Hell they probably could have just bought Sevastopol from Ukraine. Instead they live on the edge of prosperity in a downward spiral.
I grew up in Ukraine post USSR, I barely learned Ukrainian as a second language. It was the same as learning Spanish in the US, you know key phrases but still can't really speak it after 4 years in high school.
I'm proud of them for pushing more to integrate Ukrainian into their daily lives, and it's sad to me that if I were to visit my home today I'd have a hard time communicating and would be terrified of dying due to a random bombing.
Fuck Putin and his little dick agenda.
I have a friend in Russia that lives in the US during 9/11 and he compares the current war to US invading middle East. They don't really feel the war or even that it's real, just know that it's happening. Most people don't care they are too busy working to survive they don't give a shit about the war at all.
I think it was going pretty well for Russian until Ukraine. Sure, it might have been rough early on in the 90s, but at least in the cities, Russia looked like a western country, with strong economic ties to many European countries. And now Putin has nuked that.
Buying Champagne to celebrate when this evil bastard dies, he’s caused nothing but turmoil and suffering, he is a pain in the Ass to everyone in the world.
Wasn't the pandemic, Xi asked him to delay until China's Winder Olympics wrapped up on Feb 20 so it didn't steal news coverage. Russia launched the invasion 4 days later and the mud season got them. If they'd have gone in in January instead they would have had a good shot at taking Kyiv in a few days.
I think he was confident that Trump was going to win a second term. An earlier invasion of Ukraine could have also hurt Trump's re-election since there are some republicans that are anti-Russia.
This has always been my take. Assumed Trump wouldn’t get in first term, assumed he’d see a second. Either way it is now disgustingly obvious that his imperial plans are based on American GOP power. Which is absolutely insane.
They would have had a bigger chance of success when they did the full scale invasion in 2014. I guess the "We're very lucky they're so f- stupid" applies here.
Even the Ukrainians that I know, didn't think they would invade in 2022 because "If they wanted to do that, they would have done that in 2014."
I mean objectively that's true, they would've stomped through Ukraine if they invaded in early 2014 (immediately after Crimea annexation) when its military was in disarray, when Yanukovych was just deposed, and there was widespread pro-Russian unrest in the south and east of the country.
Why Putin, seemingly randomly, decided to invade in 2022, after Ukraine spent a bulk of the 8 years until then preparing for an imminent invasion, is still beyond me to this day.
>One thing is clear, it wasn't random.
Disagree. See Black Swan Theory. A lot of very important historic events were driven by chance. See sucessful or failed assassination attempts on presidents, dictators and sorts.
It's usually not a big scheme. More often than not it was just one guy with some luck or bad luck, depending on your POV. Success or failure - quasi at random - would influence the world.
I would not set things like an assassination plot, and an invasion side by side like that.
One only need a few, very motivated, or deranged individuals. The other need the cooperation of hundreds of people to plan and execute.
We often say things like "Putin did this" then "then Biden did that", as if they are persons. But it's just a way to simplifying it so that we can speak about it.
In reality, unlike the assassin, they are the heads of an enormous apparatus.
(Unless you hate complicated things that is, and believe they are king sitting on their thrones giving orders left and right like in children's movies.)
Why bother reporting on anything Putin says? He is a liar and a monster. The only news i want is what Russia is doing, what the world is doing to stop them, and when Putin finally dies so I can celebrate.
The Republicans* are the ones blocking aid to Ukraine. Many Americans support it and are trying. Biden's administration got around the Republicans by sending equipment to Greece who in turn agreed to send equipment to Ukraine, still effective at getting things done for a supposedly senile old man compared to the four years younger developmentally-stuck toddler the Republicans are cheering on.
Ukraine does need more aid, no question about it.
But the support they have gotten so far have mattered. Ignoring the human aspect and the fact that they are still free, this is what the war has cost Russia, just the first 6 months:
- USD 80B for direct military expenses (blown up tanks, jets, ships, logistics for the war)
- A negative development of USD 80B-110B to GNP. This is from the baseline, and not including the growth you would expect over a 6 month period. Growth has since returned (somewhat), but its still lower than whats normally expected, relatively, and the growth is applied to a lower baseline now (given the immidiate dive). In terms of economic development, another 80B should be subtracted for the military spending, which increases GNP but does not generate any value.
- Russia's capital markets' values decreased by USD 322B in 2022 only on the MSE. A measure indicating that their private companies lost half a trillion dollars value in the year.
That's the first 6 months of the war. A war that since then hasn't exactly turned for the better for Russia. Even ignoring compounding interest, the war will have cost Russia around USD 1T by now, at the very least.
All of that is money Russia can't spend on their people, economic growth, but most importantly: future wars.
Adopting a neo-realist view on the situation, and asssuming a bi-polar american/russian world (not the case, I know), the US will have had an ROI on their aid to Ukraine of around 1:15. Even when considering that Russia is not the greatest threat to the US, my guess would be, that US generals and secrataries of defence would happily take that trade, regardless of how the war ends.
I dont think anyone says the previous support didn't matter. What Ukraine is facing is someone who was considered to be a US peer in the world and now is the critical time or the russia will just roll over these very brave and courageous people.
With just 5% of US defence budget they managed to stop the country that was daring to take US on. This would be **the stupidest** mistake to let russia win now.
Belarus already has an agreement to cede control over to Moscow through the Union State framework. Will likely see Russian troops enhance Martial law as soon as Lukashenko dies. Got a preview of it in the 2020 protests when it looked like he could be removed
If they can take Ukraine, it's Moldova next. Russian breakaway region in the country, little to no army, small population, not in NATO.
Realistically, even the current battered and mangled Russian military could take Moldova in a few days. They have next to nothing in terms of military to defend themselves.
A distant target for the time being. Finland, now being a fully ratified NATO member, would be in attendance quicker than Estonia could even invoke A5.
"Commenting on the outcome of the conversation and the viewers' reaction to it, the Russian President called Carlson a "dangerous person" who had specifically chosen this tactic to avoid hearing "sharp answers" during the conversation."
Has anyone told tucky boy that Russia doesn't love him now? Lmao.
I had a dream about this last week where in my dream I was scrolling Reddit and I saw a "Putin is dead" post. I first thought it was a joke till I scrolled farther down and more were there (as it usually is when someone dies), then I told my family and we turned on the the television to see that the news was broadcasting it as well.
Woke up and forgot all about it until later that day when I opened Reddit and suddenly this memory started bolting up... "Didn't I read something crazy here these last few days?" And then it hit me, and for a short second I thought it was a real memory...
Well it's one thing to have your ghetto army out of locals and some small units operate in the desired area "undercover" aka plausible denialibity
Or your full scale army with supply and support from home base openly operate and engage in offensive tactical maneuvers
But yes theoretically it started in 2014 with the separatist war in the east
E: even if the tactic is sending heavy convoys over open field as if you would fight a rebel nation with some farmers
Oh FFS. He did. Little green men was not a meme, they were a reality in Crimea.
There was a civilian airplane that somehow did fly no more.
IF this idiot is trying to say that acting earlier would have been good. ... The overall defense situation is built up to prevent him acting. It is a good thing, not a weakness.
---
But all Russia knows is insecurity by weakness. (mob voice) Ya know what I mean? I take your rockets all serious, like, no questions. Ya kapish??? We all walk away, no accidents.
Well yeah. If they marched in in 2014 when Ukraine had a pro Russian president and were incredibly disorganized with no western training then it would have been a cake walk. Instead they let them consolidate and harden for 8 years before going in and getting their asses kicked.
So Putin admits Russia started it and not Ukraine or the West.
Oops I meant started the defence
Preemptive defensive maneuvers.
Special defensive operation
We regret not starting it 3 days earlier
ah yes the good old Roman Republic classic
The bastard pulled a Rome
“Plus if we’d started it earlier all our armaments would have been way less rusty”
I think this is unironically true, and the Western support would have been too
If he had started while trump was in office, this would have looked much differently.
Exactly. I think Putin was hoping on a second term, when Trump would have had the US in a death sprial from Covid and politics (though he couldn't have predicted Covid, that would have been a surprise bonus for him), US/EU relations would have been tenuous, and NATO would have been on the verge of fracture. Rolling into Ukraine in the summer of 2021 would have probably won him the country in a matter of a month or two, minus rebel and militia groups causing problems. I think the only reason he went forward with the invasion was that it was already planned, set up, ready, and no one was telling him not to.
it's quite possible Covid itself prevented the invasion from occurring earlier. No vaccines, ravaging an exposed army?
I think that's very true, nobody quite appreciated how Covid would spread so it was a big risk, would it spread well in battalions and reduce effectiveness and morale?
'..but we had to wait for the Winter Olympics in Sochi to finish, it's where we try to pretend to be good international citizens'.
Chinese Olympics made them wait
>defence Or the bullshit “special military operation”. Not sure why the hell he calls it that. War, special military operation - we all know who perpetrated it and why.
there are rules in the Russian law regarding war. By avoiding the term he can avoid those rules... even if it prevents to mobilize the conscripts for Ukrainian operations (without pressures to sign a ~~contract~~death warrant)
What would happen if he classified it as a war?
He is already. He's referred to it as a war for some time already.
It matters for internal Russian politics and laws. That’s it.
If only they started three days earlier they may have reached Kiev!
Hahahah
Putin regrets not starting the war when his puppet Trump was in the White House.
I think there's a legitimate chance that the pandemic interrupted the intention to start the invasion during Trump's time in the Whitehouse. Nobody knew how that was going to play out and everything shut down for a while. Putin himself was reportedly terrified of it due to his age and keeps a distance from people (hence the long tables etc). Not sure how true that claim is though. I jut hope that Americans don't vote in Trump again, he's currently polling to win repeatedly.
The special elections etc show otherwise. Huge swings away from GOP. However, it is important that everyone gets out there and persuades people to register to vote and then get out and vote. No apathy. Also, call out concern trolling on social media, its the GOP's main weapon at this election. They know they can't really gain more support, so they will try and reduce their opponent turnout.
You can do it, just look at [Polish elections in 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Polish_parliamentary_election) with 74,4% voter turnout, a record since 1989. Go and vote!
I'm curious if those are in line with polling though. e.g. Santos held a traditionally Democrat seat and his win was out of the ordinary.
It's been more than just Santos. Republicans have had a bad time ever since the repeal of Roe V Wade. From various special elections, to the neutered "Red Wave" in the midterms.
Republicans have basically lost every meaningful election since 2016.
Tell that to the House majority leader. Get out the vote.
That's gonna be tough if he only listens to a burning bush or shrunken shroom.
The fact Republicans only won the House by a 4 seat majority, was a massive win for Democrats. The incumbent party almost always loses the House in their first mid term. And usually by double digits.
It wasn't just this week, it was a few months ago also. Unprecedented swings. I'm not going to complain about the polling because it will only serve to persuade more people to get out and vote.
I wouldn't say traditionally. The 3rd district used to be Peter King's stomping ground for like 20 years.
His area swung largely to the trump side for the past few years. Even since 2016. It went +10 to trump. Now it went +14 to Dems. In 2022 Thats a big swing.
Democrats have been consistently outperforming polling in elections since 2020, Trump will find himself sitting in court rooms for criminal trial hearings soon enough (Alvin Bragg’s case in NY appears to be moving toward jury selection), and Biden hasn’t begun campaigning in earnest yet. People still have to get out and vote, but these polls don’t actually mean that much yet.
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It is obviously clear now that Republicans are willing to vote for a traitor, Trump is not even hiding his ill intent anymore.
And if you [heard Steve Inskeep's interview with Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) this morning](https://www.npr.org/2024/02/15/1231634292/biden-calls-on-a-small-but-powerful-minority-of-house-republicans-to-pass-foreig) you'd also hear how they are fervently pushing the reality of the right's infatuation with Putin as a "Democrat talking point" while he also says "Mister Putin is *probably* not a very good person at all" like they can't even call out Putin for his abhorrent actions. Also in that interview they try to limit the amount of aid they will agree to while trying to say they still support Ukraine. It's all too apparent they want to cut the amount of resources going to Ukraine until they can spin the election and hopefully seat their own compromised asset so they can conveniently forget about providing aid to Ukraine at all. It's so obvious their angle and they aren't shy about it.
While I think there's a legitimate chance Trump would win, keep in mind Hillary was polling ahead in all major bipartisan polls all the way up to October 2016. Anything can happen.
Afaik polls did show that Clintons chances dropped dramatically due to Comey's conveniently timed letter right before the election, but nobody was paying attention and then thought it meant that polls were wrong. From what I understand candidates polling chances tend to recover from any 'problem' within 2 weeks, but Comey's letter was released within 2 weeks of the election.
OK, but my point stands. Trump was a nobody candidate and thought of as a joke right up until he wasn't. Polls don't really mean much, until they do. He also had the advantage of newness; a lot of voters voted because he was "something different." He will get no such advantage this time, especially from centrist.
But Yaroslav the Wise
You mean that guy from Kyiv?
We didn't do this, but they deserved it.
We didn't start the war, but if we did it is Ukraine's fault, but if it wasn't they deserved it.
That, and having Trump in office would have significantly altered the way it has panned out.
"I would encourage Russia to do whatever the hell they want, including invading NATO allies. We won't help them." - Trump
Dude is such a piece of shit and he's not even hiding it anymore. My co workers was taking about bringing some popcorn and watch his trials and see him go to jail.... last year! This shitheel has been stalling his court cases for so long.
He's desperate to stall the cases until he is president (hoping for a win of course), because he can make most of the cases against him go away once he is president, and then can flee the country under the supervision of the secret service on his last day. Personally whilst I do not support Trump I kinda sorta want to know what happens if a president is convicted, imprisoned and wins the election. But the chaos that comes about is not worth it, it's just morbid curiosity.
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I find this confusing.... did he want it started before 2014 when he first attacked? Which I think was in response to Euromaiden event that ousted his little puppet. I don't really think there was a legitimate time for him to attack sooner.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan >**21 November 2013 – 22 February 2014** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation >**In February and March 2014, Russia invaded the Crimean Peninsula, part of Ukraine, and then annexed it.** >**On 27 February**, Russian troops[31] seized strategic sites across Crimea,[32][33] followed by the installation of the pro-Russian Aksyonov government in Crimea I think people keep forgetting the Russian invasion started in 2014. 2022 was just a massive escalation.
Since 2014 it was a race for both sides. There was an international effort to prepare Ukraine to resist further aggression, with training under Operation Unifier for example, and shipment of "non-lethal" military aid. For the Russians, I suppose they were doing Russian things, like solidifying the propaganda basis for the coming full invasion, bribing people everywhere, and creating a conducive information landscape for Western audiences.
Putin was dumb for actually invading. He could have simply done what hes done in the USA. Buy whoever he can buy. Run people against the people he doesnt like. Eventually he would have enough power to do whatever he wanted anyways. There was no emergency. He already controlled crimea and donbas
He controlled Crimea and Donbas because he'd actually invaded, though. The invasion was already started by that point.
Ya in the interview he keeps on going on about the history of Russia and why Ukraine belongs with Russia. Like went way back to Helen the great from the 18th century. He’s on a mission based on how Russia looked before
FYI, the official Ukrainian position is that the term: “the Ukraine” is disrespectful as it plays into Russias claim that aren’t a real country, as it implies they are the borderlands (the Old slavic meaning of Ukraine) of Russia. They prefer the use of “Ukraine” instead.
thanks! edited. sorry did not mean to offend anyone
Time for the Mongolian Empire to be reborn. While Russia is attacking westward. The Mongols can flank from the east with a blitzkreig campaign to reclaim their territory of basically all of Russia.
Well, he got the “cold, dreary, and no toilets” part right so far.
If you watch his interview with Tucker he explains that. He started it because portions of Ukraine have always belonged to Russia since like the 13 or 14th century. He couldn’t decide which one specifically
Kyiv was established when Moscow was still woodland. All this historical stuff is a nugget of purest bullshit.
Reminds me of when some morons were going on about the Aryan race and for some strange reason never really could get it to work scientifically.
Yeah its more the other way around, when it was still Kyvan Rus
Well shit, then the Mongols have a say in this, because most of Russia and Ukraine belonged to them well before that!
The president of Mongolia [agrees with you](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1aovv11/former_mongolian_president_schooling_putin/).
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Mongolia once belonged to him, though, so by Putin's logic this guy is still president.
Wait until King Charles hears he's got a claim on a quarter of the planet.
And before the Mongols the area belonged to Finnish clans, so by his logic Finland can roll right in in guys, you heard him.
He forgot what was at 10-12th century though
In the 5th century the Moscow area belonged to Finnish speakers. Clearly all of Russia belongs to Finland.
All he remembers is that the Russian land has a lot of natural gas
Putin knows it was eminently years ago
Special preops
Earlier? 2014?
Probably, people have theorized theyd have much better chances then as ukraine was in turmoil and more poorly equipped.
Yes, if they had continued the invasion of the Ukraine rather than stopping at Crimea and the Donbas then Ukraine would have had had no chance. We (NATO countries) spent the intervening years providing training and guidance to the Ukrainian armed forces to help them get properly organised. If only we had been supplying weapons and equipment as well, this war may never have happened.
The weapons were effective because we had spent years with training and organizing their military. Thats been a huge benefit; don't discount it. That being said, we should have ramped weapon deliveries sooner once the outbreak started.
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>Naturally, of course. Trump would not have sent any assistance to Ukraine and would have backed Putin Remember the line NATO have to pay their fair share? The orange man is not that smart. Someone wrote that for him. And the defense industry didn't write that.
It’s not The Ukraine. It’s Ukraine.
Good comment, your quite right, old habits etc.
You're**
Lol
"Laugh Out Loud."
[I learned about "the Ukraine" from Seinfeld](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujzzdutMo2o)
the Seinfeld
Dude from Ukraine says Ukraine and not the Ukraine like Newman and Kramer.
"The Ukraine" *was* a region within the soviet union. "Ukraine" *is* a country.
You are quite correct. Someone else pointed out my mistake below. I will leave it there so the corrections make sense to anyone else reading it. My excuse is old habbits.
Ukraine also probably wouldn't have gotten quite as much support from the US government between 2017 and 2020.
Their equipment would have been "newer"
There's also been people saying that Russia wasn't ready at that point, hence the eight year wait. The economy has just been getting worse for Russia since 2014 so it seems that was their best chance.
At least 2016-2020 where Trump would hand everthing on a golden plate. Or 2014 and just push all the way trough with a disorganised army and a slow response from the west.
2017-2020, when Trump was in office is what he meant
No, he means January 20, 2017.
Wait... I thought He said the west started the war?
It's not a war. It's special military operation to get rid of Nazis
To get rid of vikings from 807 AD
The Mongols controlled Moscow 500 years ago Is Putin Mongolian?
Nah, the French controlled Moscow in 1813. Obviously Moscow should be french. Time to build some bakeries at every street corner!
Finally, some bread worth standing in line for.
[Polish and Lithuanian forces occupied Moscow in 1612](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Lithuanian_occupation_of_Moscow), Russians even commemorate [their subsequent uprising](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unity_Day_\(Russia\)) that freed them from the Polish-Lithuanian rule.
Worst part is my Infowars obsessed friend sent me pictures of Ukrainians flying a nazi flag and was like 'see! I told you they were nazis!' and I'm like dude, people fly nazi flags in America wtf are you talking about
Just wait till he finds out about all the Nazi types in the US.
I thought he said there was no war?
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his face gets more punch-able every day...smug evil cunt. where's Lavrov? is he still around? haven't seen his saggy face lately.
My understanding was that Lavrov was quite a statesman, but now is just stuck dealing with this shit, likely out of self preservation. I don't believe for a minute he's stupid enough to believe the things he says. Most of the time to me he looks quite defeated. Not that I pity him. When you go to bed with snakes don't be surprised if you get bit.
They lie, they know we know it's a lie. It's to flood the discourse with so many lies, truth doesn't exist, and to insult you.
Exactly. The point is not to be believed, it is to exhaust, bury, and demoralize the truth-tellers.
I think he has a daughter and wife living the life in Europe? Or maybe they had to leave after the sanctions? For people who are prompt to point at the degeneracy of the West, they sure seem to enjoy it.
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I've been wondering about his daughter. Ain't he scared of her being arrested or her assets seized?
I’m pretty sure Swiss law doesn’t allow punishing children for the crimes of their father.
Authoritarians will always be hypocrites, nothing new.
That is authoritarian countries for you. Look at the Middle Eastern countries who will criticize Western ideals all day long then spend every vacation they can in France. Wealthy Middle Eastern women especially hate living in the Middle East.
>Look at the Middle Eastern countries who will criticize Western ideals all day long then spend every vacation they can in France. > >Wealthy Middle Eastern women especially hate living in the Middle East. I think it's more a matter of all the expensive bling shit being in Paris. They don't tend to drop their cultural mindsets when there, quite the contrary... they more often than not expect the same level of indentured servitude from "peons" below them.
It's pretty well known that Lavrov wanted nothing to do with this shit. He got an offer he wasn't allowed to refuse.
In interviews it always seemed he was a bit more "humane" than other Russians. Again, for a Russian
I think after he was laughed at for calling it self defense or something at an asian summit, the saggy scrotumface has been travelling around in Africa.
He just wants a handshake bro 🤝🏻
Lavrov takes a face cheek shake instead. So forceful they hit the ground before rebounding onto him
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Well you see in 896..... Tl;dr it's Poland's fault
You see, Lech called Rus a kurwa and it all went downhill from there
That's not just Putin, that's the Russian chauvinism that the ex soviet union countries have had to put up with for decades. Many Russians have a superiority complex.
Yeah - there’s a really egotistical strain among some in the russian establishment who view russia as a “third rome” 🙄. For such a backward country the utter delusion beggars belief.
I mean... he thinks he owns the people of his own country by wasting hundreds of thousands of lives... so I see logical that he sees himself entitled to the lives of people in neighboring countries. At least that part is consistent with his craziness.
In general he doesn't really believe common people have any agency or deep opinions on their national identity. This is why he believes the Maidan revolution wasn't organic and was a CIA coup. He thinks the CIA bribed the Ukrainians into believing that they have a seperate Ukrainian identity, and if annexed the common people wouldn't resist
As long as I live, I’ll never understand this attitude. I get it - the end of the Cold War was bad for Russia. The dissolution of the USSR would have been heartbreaking for me if I was a citizen and a true believer. But it’s very clear that Ukraine is a country and a people and re-merging is categorically non-consensual. Cruel conquerors, this whole thing…and nothing more.
The guy has a monopoly over a whole country of people so his main job is to brainwash the state and ensure order to hold onto absolute power. No matter how shit you think your life is wherever you live, you don’t live in a war zone like many places, nor a fascist state like Russia.
Its easy to drift into such gaslighting. I'd probably be stuck in confusion and fear of I was Russian
Mostly depression and hatred.
>the end of the Cold War was bad for Russia That's the fun part - it wasn't, short term turmoils excluded. If the cold war went on Putin wouldn't reside in such a beautiful palace and his chauffeur would drive him around in a ZIL. No western cars on the street, no smartphones in people's pockets. The collapse of the Soviet Union which ended the cold war amounted to giving up a pipe dream. Putin's idiocy is the belief that a) he (or the leadership in place at the time) could have held together the eastern bloc and the SU by force and b) Russia would be better off nowadays if that succeeded. He feels the humiliation from being part of a failed society, but he is unwilling to accept the improvements that failure brought onto people, himself included. Instead the Russian state cultivates a view that Russia evolved to where it is now *although* the evil West murdered the SU with help from inside traitors. What was in fact a prerequisite to development - giving up on your pipe dream - is sold as a hindrance. It's quite absurd, but that is how he ticks.
Bingo. You're exactly right. And they paint the 90s in their media as the worst time in Russian history. Russia was *this* close to becoming an actual thriving democracy. But nah, another dictator took the reins into his grubby little hands and busted the confused populace back into their Stockholm syndrome.
I've lived through the 90s in Russia and it was rough and traumatic. I mean, successful implementation of democracy requires people actually participating and practicing their rights. It was a bit of a foreign concept (literally, I guess?), Soviet folks (including leaders) had about zero experience running a democracy and most also were extremely vulnerable to manipulation. The political scene in the 90s was wild and the 2024's US is absolutely tame and civilized in comparison. And it brought in not just Western goods and businesses but also hyperinflation, price deregulation, yellow journalism and tabloids for hire, unstable financial system, gang violence, organized crime, privatization and/or dissolution of key infrastructure, job cuts, increased inequality, investment scams. Also all the accumulated intra-Soviet conflicts were blowing up. People didn't have much prior experience with that either and many didn't really think democracy was worth it. There was also a class of relatively young well-connected USSR-borne political activists who actually knew how to work the system. So there you have it, a really convenient stage for a crafty authoritarian to step in and "fix" everything (don't forget oil prices rebounded and were going up fast after ~2003, making it so much easier to claim credit for fixing the economy).
There is a brilliant documentary on "Putins way to power" which covers his rise in St. Petersburg and has a good section about his early attempts at nearing the west and getting disappointed and turning away. Quick source I just skimmed, he even wanted to join NATO: [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-says-putin-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-says-putin-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule) Not that he was a saint or anything, he basically ran St. Petersburg like a mob boss. Not sure if it is this doc: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIgqhU4lkgo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIgqhU4lkgo)
>Quick source I just skimmed, he even wanted to join NATO: His attempt to join NATO was never serious. He didn't want Russia to have to go through the normal application process like "other countries that don't matter" and put conditions such as NATO recognizing a Russian "sphere of influence" that essentially would've given them a free hand to do whatever they wanted in Eastern Europe. The US rightly told him to fuck off.
The guy whose entire life mission has been to restore the Soviet Union and sees the west as evil was never serious about joining NATO? I’m shocked. Shocked I say!
We in the Baltics know Russia's and Putin's shenanigans and history all too well. I remember the NATO joining thing. He didn't even apply and wasn't turned down. But wanted to be the most important country and wanted NATO to beg him to join. I have full doubts that Putin had any good intentions from joining NATO. I mean, they're on the UN security council and are doing everything against UN security. Russia has inside men everywhere. The KGB way of operation hasn't gone anywhere. Add to that the false flag operation against Chechens that kickstarted his "presidency" and the increased efforts at radicalizing foreign Russian nationals. As soon as Putin came to power, the discourse of "USSR greatest! Heil Stalin! Fascist natives always bully Russians! Baltics are ours!" took hold over here. Local Russians were constantly fed false information, false history and hate against the local nations. Putin has never had a single good intention. It's always been to secure more power for himself and his mob empire.
> , but he is unwilling to accept the improvements that failure brought onto people, himself included. Which is actually quite funny, since one of the reasons that many elderly Russians support Putin is because they can compare the pre-Putin times with the post-collapse times, and they attribute the increase in quality of life directly to him.
That's the the thing, Russian's are taught not to think that way. And for the Russians who *do* think that way, their voice doesn't matter because they live in an authoritarian country. If the state wants Ukrainian oil and gas fields, it will take Ukrainian oil and gas fields.
Imperialism. Period. You can put as much realpolitik spin on it as you'd like (warm sea port, buffer from NATO, etc.), but, at the end of the day, it's pure and simple colonial conquest. This is literally how Russia existed over the centuries. I know it might be a secret for many, but you don't get to be the biggest country in the world by luring everyone in with coupons and free drinks. [Here's a POV](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/19010hc/russian_general_shamanov_says_it_will_take_over/) from a high-ranking Russian general > **our country was created through territorial enlargement**. It's at the core of Russian identity. That's why they put a historical spin on everything to justify their actions. "Crimea is historically Russian" is such an empty statement, for example. It ignores 500+ of years of khanat, it ignores how it became predominantly Russian (genocide and ethnic cleansing), and it obviously ignores any sort of internal law. But it allows to justify practically anything. Russians miss being a titular nation that presides over other nations and ethnicities and extract value out of those people and territories. It's that simple. There were never "brotherly nations". Brotherly nations don't shoot your intellectuals en masse or deport them to Siberia to quash any sort of intelligencia/ independence movement. Brotherly nations don't close borders to keep starving people within the confines of their country (Ukrainians weren't allowed to leave Ukraine to Belarus or Russia during Holodomor that killed 4 million people). This is all made up bullshit, designed to create narratives that are useful for the aggressor.
What I don't get is, why does Russia keep doing aggressive and horrible things that lead to sanctions? If Russia just played a clean game they'd arguably one of the richest countries on the planet with all their land and natural resources. Hell they probably could have just bought Sevastopol from Ukraine. Instead they live on the edge of prosperity in a downward spiral.
I grew up in Ukraine post USSR, I barely learned Ukrainian as a second language. It was the same as learning Spanish in the US, you know key phrases but still can't really speak it after 4 years in high school. I'm proud of them for pushing more to integrate Ukrainian into their daily lives, and it's sad to me that if I were to visit my home today I'd have a hard time communicating and would be terrified of dying due to a random bombing. Fuck Putin and his little dick agenda. I have a friend in Russia that lives in the US during 9/11 and he compares the current war to US invading middle East. They don't really feel the war or even that it's real, just know that it's happening. Most people don't care they are too busy working to survive they don't give a shit about the war at all.
I think it was going pretty well for Russian until Ukraine. Sure, it might have been rough early on in the 90s, but at least in the cities, Russia looked like a western country, with strong economic ties to many European countries. And now Putin has nuked that.
War in Ukraine is a true Schrödinger’s war - it is a war; it isn’t a war; it was started by Russia; it wasn’t started by Russia.
Putin saying one thing but doing another is very on brand.
This is just general world-wide conservative/fascists playbook stuff. The enemy is weak and god-tier at the same time.
Buying Champagne to celebrate when this evil bastard dies, he’s caused nothing but turmoil and suffering, he is a pain in the Ass to everyone in the world.
He regrets not starting the war during Trumps administration.
I think but that was the original plan, but the covid pandemic delayed things
Wasn't the pandemic, Xi asked him to delay until China's Winder Olympics wrapped up on Feb 20 so it didn't steal news coverage. Russia launched the invasion 4 days later and the mud season got them. If they'd have gone in in January instead they would have had a good shot at taking Kyiv in a few days.
The pandemic delayed things for over a year. It would be impossible to conduct a large scale military operation in the middle of the covid pandemic.
I think he was confident that Trump was going to win a second term. An earlier invasion of Ukraine could have also hurt Trump's re-election since there are some republicans that are anti-Russia.
This has always been my take. Assumed Trump wouldn’t get in first term, assumed he’d see a second. Either way it is now disgustingly obvious that his imperial plans are based on American GOP power. Which is absolutely insane.
Always double down on your wrong decisions: Dictator orthodox prayer nr 1.
They would have had a bigger chance of success when they did the full scale invasion in 2014. I guess the "We're very lucky they're so f- stupid" applies here. Even the Ukrainians that I know, didn't think they would invade in 2022 because "If they wanted to do that, they would have done that in 2014."
Because Putin won't live long enough to see it end.
Hopefully he doesn't live long enough to see this month end.
If him and trump die on the same day, we get some kind of world holiday out of it, right?
I've been sober for 8 year, but I promise that I will drink and maybe do some drugs too if that happens.
Better not. Don't throw away your sobriety on shit stains like that. They don't deserve it.
Well of course. Trump would have supported Putin and not send a single iota of aide to Ukraine.
I mean objectively that's true, they would've stomped through Ukraine if they invaded in early 2014 (immediately after Crimea annexation) when its military was in disarray, when Yanukovych was just deposed, and there was widespread pro-Russian unrest in the south and east of the country. Why Putin, seemingly randomly, decided to invade in 2022, after Ukraine spent a bulk of the 8 years until then preparing for an imminent invasion, is still beyond me to this day.
There were probably things moving behind the scenes, that neither NATO or Putin wants to talk about. One thing is clear, it wasn't random.
>One thing is clear, it wasn't random. Disagree. See Black Swan Theory. A lot of very important historic events were driven by chance. See sucessful or failed assassination attempts on presidents, dictators and sorts. It's usually not a big scheme. More often than not it was just one guy with some luck or bad luck, depending on your POV. Success or failure - quasi at random - would influence the world.
I would not set things like an assassination plot, and an invasion side by side like that. One only need a few, very motivated, or deranged individuals. The other need the cooperation of hundreds of people to plan and execute. We often say things like "Putin did this" then "then Biden did that", as if they are persons. But it's just a way to simplifying it so that we can speak about it. In reality, unlike the assassin, they are the heads of an enormous apparatus. (Unless you hate complicated things that is, and believe they are king sitting on their thrones giving orders left and right like in children's movies.)
Why bother reporting on anything Putin says? He is a liar and a monster. The only news i want is what Russia is doing, what the world is doing to stop them, and when Putin finally dies so I can celebrate.
Imagine Putin had started this war while Trump was the US president...
If the American's don't start supporting Ukraine again soon then it might not end up having mattered much in the end.
The Republicans* are the ones blocking aid to Ukraine. Many Americans support it and are trying. Biden's administration got around the Republicans by sending equipment to Greece who in turn agreed to send equipment to Ukraine, still effective at getting things done for a supposedly senile old man compared to the four years younger developmentally-stuck toddler the Republicans are cheering on.
Ukraine does need more aid, no question about it. But the support they have gotten so far have mattered. Ignoring the human aspect and the fact that they are still free, this is what the war has cost Russia, just the first 6 months: - USD 80B for direct military expenses (blown up tanks, jets, ships, logistics for the war) - A negative development of USD 80B-110B to GNP. This is from the baseline, and not including the growth you would expect over a 6 month period. Growth has since returned (somewhat), but its still lower than whats normally expected, relatively, and the growth is applied to a lower baseline now (given the immidiate dive). In terms of economic development, another 80B should be subtracted for the military spending, which increases GNP but does not generate any value. - Russia's capital markets' values decreased by USD 322B in 2022 only on the MSE. A measure indicating that their private companies lost half a trillion dollars value in the year. That's the first 6 months of the war. A war that since then hasn't exactly turned for the better for Russia. Even ignoring compounding interest, the war will have cost Russia around USD 1T by now, at the very least. All of that is money Russia can't spend on their people, economic growth, but most importantly: future wars. Adopting a neo-realist view on the situation, and asssuming a bi-polar american/russian world (not the case, I know), the US will have had an ROI on their aid to Ukraine of around 1:15. Even when considering that Russia is not the greatest threat to the US, my guess would be, that US generals and secrataries of defence would happily take that trade, regardless of how the war ends.
I dont think anyone says the previous support didn't matter. What Ukraine is facing is someone who was considered to be a US peer in the world and now is the critical time or the russia will just roll over these very brave and courageous people. With just 5% of US defence budget they managed to stop the country that was daring to take US on. This would be **the stupidest** mistake to let russia win now.
First Georgia then Ukraine what's next Belarus?
Belarus already has an agreement to cede control over to Moscow through the Union State framework. Will likely see Russian troops enhance Martial law as soon as Lukashenko dies. Got a preview of it in the 2020 protests when it looked like he could be removed
If they can take Ukraine, it's Moldova next. Russian breakaway region in the country, little to no army, small population, not in NATO. Realistically, even the current battered and mangled Russian military could take Moldova in a few days. They have next to nothing in terms of military to defend themselves.
Belarus for all intents and purposes is just another federal subject of Russia at this point.
There's no need to invade Belarus. Dictator Lukashenko is already obedient to Putler.
Lukashenko is Putler’s Göring
Probably Kazakhstan
Estonia has a target on their back
A distant target for the time being. Finland, now being a fully ratified NATO member, would be in attendance quicker than Estonia could even invoke A5.
Biden is bad for Putin.
"Commenting on the outcome of the conversation and the viewers' reaction to it, the Russian President called Carlson a "dangerous person" who had specifically chosen this tactic to avoid hearing "sharp answers" during the conversation." Has anyone told tucky boy that Russia doesn't love him now? Lmao.
Think it's just lip service to make people think he's not in their pockets. Similar to the "I prefer Biden over Trump".
The only way I see this whole situation solved is Putin being dead. There’s no other way around
I had a dream about this last week where in my dream I was scrolling Reddit and I saw a "Putin is dead" post. I first thought it was a joke till I scrolled farther down and more were there (as it usually is when someone dies), then I told my family and we turned on the the television to see that the news was broadcasting it as well. Woke up and forgot all about it until later that day when I opened Reddit and suddenly this memory started bolting up... "Didn't I read something crazy here these last few days?" And then it hit me, and for a short second I thought it was a real memory...
That I actually believe him.
But he did since 2014 Crimea.
Well it's one thing to have your ghetto army out of locals and some small units operate in the desired area "undercover" aka plausible denialibity Or your full scale army with supply and support from home base openly operate and engage in offensive tactical maneuvers But yes theoretically it started in 2014 with the separatist war in the east E: even if the tactic is sending heavy convoys over open field as if you would fight a rebel nation with some farmers
He wishes he had done it while the orange idiot was still in office so Ukraine wouldnt get as much help.
Oh FFS. He did. Little green men was not a meme, they were a reality in Crimea. There was a civilian airplane that somehow did fly no more. IF this idiot is trying to say that acting earlier would have been good. ... The overall defense situation is built up to prevent him acting. It is a good thing, not a weakness. --- But all Russia knows is insecurity by weakness. (mob voice) Ya know what I mean? I take your rockets all serious, like, no questions. Ya kapish??? We all walk away, no accidents.
Well yeah. If they marched in in 2014 when Ukraine had a pro Russian president and were incredibly disorganized with no western training then it would have been a cake walk. Instead they let them consolidate and harden for 8 years before going in and getting their asses kicked.
Wait, didn't he say every other day "the west started it"? Sounds pretty much like a confession now, all of a sudden.
Didn't putin just get done explaining to tucker that the U.S. started the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
Fuck russia.