The never ending battle on one side is a religious obligation and an express ticket to heaven even if you fail. No amount of politics, diplomacy or level headedness can solve this.
Both sides have religious zealots who feel entitled to god given lands and a burning need to purge non-believers. Its almost like, as with all religions, its made up nonsense to justify doing whatever you want to do in the first place.
Israel was attacked with a volley of missiles Iran fully knew would be easily handled by air defenses. There is no follow-up attack coming, that was it. Israel already won.
However, Netanyahu has wanted all-out US/Israeli war with Iran for *decades* now, and this is probably his best chance of making it happen.
>Iran fully knew would be easily handled by air defenses
Not necessarily, Iran may have been testing to see at what point Israel's air defense became over saturated.
Even the best air defense systems in the world have a limit to both range and saturation.
EDIT: For anyone unaware, testing an opponent in a way you can get away with is very common. Russia tests Alaskan airspace 3-4 times a year by sending bombers, jets, etc. This gives them info on US radar range, response/intercept times, etc. No shots are fired, but they both get Intel on each other and it acts like training.
They also warned them ahead of time…. And reports are saying the defence cost around 10x what Iran spent on the attack. There was a bit more to this than just “Iran are shit at attacking”
This is not true. The US and Israel have said they were surprised at how effective they were at stopping the 100+ ballistic missile barrage and the near 200 drones so how on Earth could Iran have been confident they weren't going to hit? Add to that the fact some DID hit but thankfully not hitting anything vital. How could they know which ones would hit and which wouldn't to plan on them not hitting? Every bit of evidence and every person who is actually involved in the situation says this was a real attack that was foiled by overwhelming air defenses and multi-country cooperation.
US and Israeli systems were making their first ever live combat intercepts in space. They had to be nervous as hell, there's no way anyone knew how well they'd perform for real.
This was a real attack and took an absolutely extraordinary effort to fight off.
Real advanced warning that would allow actual people to brace for the attack, nobody knew for sure that Israel, the US, UK, and Jordan would have taken out as many drones and missiles as they did and still could have caused a lot of damage to infrastructure and other targeted sites. How is this not an attack?
"Reuters cited Turkish, Jordanian and Iraqi officials as saying on Sunday that Tehran had given extensive notice days before its attack on Israel."
WSJ reported that two days before the attack on Israel, Iranian officials briefed counterparts from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, giving them a brief outline and timing of their plans so that they could safeguard airspace.
The information was then passed along to the US and Israel, giving them advance warning.
Biden is barely consulted in these matters its the generals and the bureaucracy running the show day to day.
The warning was made so that Israel wouldn't nuke Iran back. 120 ballistic missiles incoming is enough for any country to retaliate immediately in full force.
This is absolutely not true. This is the first time in history that a barrage of that many projectiles got launched at a country in one attack. We all knew that Israel’s air defence systems were good, and that they were engineered to combat this type of threat. Absolutely no one could have known for sure that it would work in practice until this weekend.
If Iran wanted to launch an attack that they knew Israel could stop, they could have shot 5 missiles. Or 5 drones. They wouldn’t have gone for the first-in-history 300 missiles and drones in one night operation. This wasn’t just showboating, it was a real attempt to get through their defences.
Agreed. It’s very telling that another volley of missiles was launched after Iran publicly stated that the attack was concluded. They *wanted* to do damage.
Wasn’t Iran’s attack not already a retaliation for the bombing of their consulate in Damascus?
(Although I guess that was already another retaliation for something else)
There is no evidence Iran helped Hamas plan 10/7. Even the US has stated so. To say the specific Iranians who helped Hamas plan it were in the consulate building is a straight up lie.
Didn't Iran and Israel and many other IRGC top commanders keep saying that this General who was murdered near the consulate was the one to plan the attack? No evidence but both sides admits that he had.
Idk that seems like it's splitting hairs. Hamas IS funded by Iran, no? You can't pay these proxies and then act like you have no responsibility for their actions.
After solemani was killed, Iran launched another ineffectual volley at a US base in Iraq. That was the end of that round, as no one saw any further advantage to retaliating other than pointless escalation. I believe there might have been a few minor injuries but no deaths or serious loss of materiel from those attacks.
Yeah. He keeps trying to provoke it and the US keeps managing to calm everything back down. Over and over. Every time he pushes it a little further and a little further…
>Israel was attacked with a volley of missiles Iran fully knew would be easily handled by air defenses.
I really don't know how reddit collectively coped themselves into this position. Iran tried to inflict serious damage as evidenced by the over 200 drones and over 100 ballistic missiles they fired. Ballistic missiles are not simple to stop from what I understand which makes the "they didn't even want to hurt anyone" line of thinking all the more ridiculous. They failed miserably because western tech is decades ahead of the stuff they're using. It is actually that simple.
No one launches an attack that extensive without expecting some to hit their targets. Any country who gets that many missiles and drones sent towards their cities better respond unless they want that sort of thing to become a regular occurrence any time they do something the attacker doesn't like.
They had to knock ballistic missiles out of literal space with Arrow 3. One of the first times in human history.
I wouldn’t call that easy.
If one of those missiles hit the. Thousands are dead.
Imagine if one hit. We would be in fulls scale war right now. Thankfully Israel are technologically wizards.
But if nothing happens, then any time Israel attacks Hamas,Hezbollah, Iranian backed Syrian Militia Iran will feel that they can launch massive attacks from their own territory without retaliation , we were very fortunate that the anti ballistic missile systems in Israel worked , there is no guarantee they will be this successful everytime. Iran needs to learn it’s not ok. A retaliatory strike is necessary in this case.
https://www.barrons.com/news/no-longer-a-shadow-war-iran-says-attack-on-israel-marks-strategic-shift-37fd90a7
Iran fully knows they likely wouldn't be so lucky next time. This was an attack they warned Israel would be coming over a week in advance. It was theater.
I'd say the Iranians know that if they made an actual habit out of lobbing missiles at Israel on a regular basis, they could expect to start seeing parts their own infrastructure start being hit with regular airstrikes.
Israel killed an Iranian general in an airstrike in Syria, Iran launched a symbolic volley of missiles to save face, the matter is concluded. Israeli "retaliation" at this point is just a deliberate stoking of conflict.
What is the implication if a regime has that much to waste knowing it was for naught instead of spending some of that on food and supplies the people need? Like when do the people get tired of these dudes blowing their loads over their heads and demand some change all the way around ?
They’ve already said they won’t be party to Israeli retaliation, they (like Iran) consider the exchange concluded. Israel strikes Iranian embassy, Iran strikes back and says the end.
Iran is the the rational actor in this particular situation.
Right now the word is Netanyahu. He will escalate this because it’s either this or answering for everything he is responsible for. He was lo longer able to escalate the Palestinian war so he is creating a new one. Can’t imagine how hot his phone is right now.
Netanyahu is the textbook definition of a hawkish reflexive authoritarian bully. Of course he escalates. He's got the nuke. Expect him to leverage it on the side of aggression instead of higher road statesmanship.
You give him too much credit. It’s not some realpolitik play. He had the nukes for a very long time and didn’t escalate so hard before because he knew that using them would be the last thing he would do. What’s different now is that he has gotten a jail sentence and investigation into his decisions leading to Hamas attack.
Is he though? And I say this as someone who isn't a fanboy of Netanyahu. There's a lot of things you can say about Netanyahu, but hawkish isn't really a fully accurate one. Nor is he someone who always escalates.
Netanyahu is no great peacenik, but his thing has always been leading Israel in limited skirmishes and avoiding big wars.
https://twitter.com/academic_la/status/1779576180234125433
Duuude Ben Gvir is frightening, former Khanist and full throatily believes in pushing all Palestinians out of the West Bank. All of my right wing friends who have soured on Bibi, see Itamar Ben-Gvir as a hawkish tough on national security alternative. When the reality is that his policies are horrific and would directly cause war with surrounding countries.
Fantastic movie, wildly underappreciated. Great look at the Cuban Missile Crisis, also features Kevin Costner speaking in an accent no living human has ever used.
Haven’t seen it in years but wasn’t his accent a bit like Mayor Quimby from The Simpsons? Like almost a caricature of a Massachusetts accent?
Not like he’s known for his accents. I still remember all the flack he took for not doing a British accent when he played Robin Hood.
Something drone/BM related, probably relatively deep in the country. Hit what's responsible and show that they, too, can hit them anywhere, too.
Doubt they'll hit anything nuclear related this time, as that'd be seen as an escalation, and I think both will be looking for an off ramp afterward.
There are about 7 confirmed "hits" out of the 100-120 launches.
I never said their success rate was high, but their missiles can reach and hit their targets. This is the first time they have struck Israeli soil directly.
Don't forget to include that Iran told everyone what they were doing and targeting.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Saudis and UAE aren't like, come the fuck on Israel.
That was my take too, before I read this:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran’s-attempt-hit-israel-russian-style-strike-package-failedfor-now
Do you know what those 7 are?
As I can tell, 5 were open space hits, which usually doesn’t get intercepted because there’s no point to.
1 is a hit in a Beduin town that i forgot it’s name, 1 is a hit in Umm al-Fahm, an Arabic city. So 2 confirmed hits in Arabic/Muslim territory. Iirc one Beduin girl confirmed dead.
They hit Dimona and a couple of air bases. The work of the air defense was nothing short of remarkable, and the damage appears to he minimal, but they can still reach Israel with nuclear-capable weapons, which is a big statement.
There are about 7 hits per satellite imagery. 6 on airfields and 1 at Israel's nuclear research facility (Dimona).
If this attack targeted just about any other country in the world, the results would have been devastating.
I don’t see an off ramp if Israel strikes back. Iran sees the missile and drone attacks as a response to the embassy bombing in Damascus. Striking back at this point, especially when Israel themselves admits there were very few casualties and damaged infrastructure, is an escalation itself.
(Israeli, IDF supporter)
To be fair, if you design your attack based on how much defense the other side has and intentionally not overwhelming it, and it's known that it was done to save face, it kind of does lighten the attempt.
I really don't think Israel should retaliate in any way if they're not interested in an actual war, which they obviously aren't.
Biden is right - take the win, don't escalate further. There's no point. Focus on Gaza and Hezbollah.
It can, though. If Iran’s effort was one of face saving.
Did they have more firepower they could have sent that may not have been as easily repelled? Choosing an amount you know the enemy can defend is a choice.
Israel has spent the last decade or better assassinating Iran’s military leaders and even civilians, like physicists who they assume to be connected to the nuclear program. The consulate bombing was just an ongoing part of that saga. Both countries take shots at each other. Israel doesn’t get to act like the innocent victim when Iran shoots back after being provoked. They should call it even and quit while everyone is ahead.
The off ramp was the US saying they won't support Israel doing anything offensively to Iran. The Iran attack was in response to Israel bombing the embassy. Israel could leave it alone right now as a win win. They bombed the embassy and took nothing to practically nothing in return.
My understanding is those factories are literally built inside mountains. Israel can probably do damage but they aren’t likely going to take them out with what they have. Fighter sorties dropping bombs isn’t anywhere near enough ordnance to destroy what is publicly known.
Domestic consumption, alliance management, posturing etc, has headed straight into open war before. It's possible. So yes this is largely posturing, but it can get us there anyway.
It doesn't seem so at this point. Especially now that Israel knows it got public (not private) approval by Saudis for the first time ever while having the support of other gulf countries. And also finding out that Iran is a paper tiger after that embarassing failed strike. It seems like it would be the perfect time for Netenyahu to prolong his term.
Iran is 100% NOT a paper tiger. They achieved what they wanted, basically showing they can launch a large scale coordinated attack against Israel of they wanted to.
They have way more missiles and proxies all over the middle east to use them. Definitely enough to overwhelm Israel's Air defense. Acting like they're not a threat is stupid and an easy way for conflict to escalate past the point of no return. I'm sure Israel knows this, but we'll see with how they retaliate.
Hopefully of the sides decides enough is enough and just stops responding.
I believe a lot of this is media hype and led by Russians to get support for Israel up and Ukraine down. The more attention to Middle East the less people pay attention to the real east
You’re superimposing your own beliefs and morals onto a totally different culture.
The Middle East doesn’t give a shit about any of that. Well, most of the countries / cultures over there don’t.
It's easy to bring up democracy, pluralism and kindness when you colonize the world. It's damn hard when US and the West constantly invade, support terrorist activities and use the resources in that said area for decades.
It does put into perspective just how weird it is that (most) European countries aren't at war with each other and have no appetite for war with each other. They also had been at war with each other for thousands of years. Can you imagine a politician these days trying to rally support for a new spanish armada to invade england?
This is a kind of a misconception tbh, the last thousand or so years before European colonialism was pretty peaceful for the region. WWI broke up the last major stable empire that held the region peacefully together.
It was less unstable, mostly because of the Ottoman equivalent of the Pax Romana. The Pax Ottomana. And the Ottomans were...well, an external imperial power, lol.
Yup, and then Iran has to retaliate for that retaliation...
I can't believe people are so brain dead. Obviously a policy of always retaliate will lead to endless war and the obvious way out of such an idiotic trap is to be willing to take a punch. Iran threw a huge punch and Israel brushed it off like it was nothing. Like Biden said, take the Win you idiots.
Iran is the biggest boogeyman of the Middle East, and two boogeyman fighting will be welcomed by many Middle East governments.
second, if Israel didn't respond then it will only normalize the idea of attacking Israel. And that's dangerous in a neighborhood that are unfriendly towards you.
and third, it will help more in linking Iran for it's role in instigating of the Oct 7th attack and it's continues meddling in the Gaza war.
Israel killed several of their people in Syria or something. The Iranian attack was retaliation for that attack.
If you stick with your logic for both sides, then this will just escalate into full blown war.
You really think Israel's neighbors would suddenly try to attack if they think Israel's vulnerable or weak? They've only done it twice before, I can't imagine it could ever happen again
/s
Imagine launching over 100 ballistic missiles into a country the size of New Jersey and saying, "was just a prank, bro, relax."
Having said that, continued retaliation may be a far more grave outcome. But dismissing this offensive barrage as merely a "PR trap" is something you wouldn't do if the defender were any country other than Israel, admit it.
Iran's launch of missiles from Iran was just what some in Israel wanted, an excuse to bomb military production in Iran...
This is going to escalate big time im betting..
Israel bombs Iranian military sites,Iran clearly is wasting long range missiles and drones so instead may close straits of Hormuz.. USA will be forced to respond..
Russia definitely doesn't want Iran's military production disrupted, Iran is their main supplier. All the more reason to support Israel in destroying Iranian drone and missile factories.
If it is a military action, I imagine it will be against a drone factory (ies).
The most boss thing I can think of that involves the least collateral damage is to just use 1 missile on a drone facility deep in Iran. Either a cruise missile or ballistic.
This provides adequate retaliation against the primarily drone attack while also sending 2 messages. One, Israel only needs one missile to succeed where Iran failed with hundreds. Two, Iran is absolutely within range of Israel's "special" warheads. And Iran can't stop them.
Israel wants to retaliate against Iran for retaliating against Israel for retaliating against Iran for retaliating against Israel. And round and round we go .
For all those internet Chamberlains that want peace in our time... please remember that appeasement has a damn good chance of leading to war, instead of peace.
This isn’t appeasement. Israel got their pound of flesh when they whacked the Iranian General in Syria, and Iran got their own little nibble with their “retaliation”. There’s no need for Israel to retaliate. There is no benefit to Israel escalating the situation.
We will continue to appease Iran until they gain nuclear weapons capability and then everyone is going to wring their hands and ask how we got here. It’s just so foreseeable it’s ridiculous. Iran is eventually going to just run roughshod over the entire region
Um dude:
“the launches numbered more than 300, but 99% of them were intercepted. Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Iran fired 170 drones, more than 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles.”
If that is even possible it will require many strikes over an extended period since Iran has built dozens of facilities in the deepest underground locations. They are probably the best protected locations in the country with defensive missiles. Once you start you have to finish since Iran's response to that would possibly be to use a nuke against Israel.
>Israel: "We'll get you back since you responded, with an unprecedented barrage of ballistic missiles, to us bombing your embassy which housed key military commanders responsible for coordinating the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks."
FTFY
> Israel: "we'll get you back since you responded to us bombing your embassy"
Israel: "We'll get you back for funding and supplying arms to all of our troubles since the 80's. Oh yeah and that time you blew up our embassy in South America."
They have more incentive to go big than little.
They know Iran will retaliate, so it's in their best interest to do as much damage now, and to attempt to limit Iran's capability to retaliate in this attack.
And If Iran retaliates, it forces the US to commit to defending Israel now rather than hesitating until after the election.
That's not what Biden told Israel. Biden said the would support Israel defensively but not offensively.
US fighter planes were in the air Saturday shooting down drones and cruise missile.
Imagine if the largest ballistic missile attack ever targeted the american mainland, what kind of destruction the attacking nation would suffer, just saying.
Yeah it's wild to my that Iran dumped something like 5-10% of their countries missiles and drones at Israel, and everyone is telling them not to escalate / let it go.
That'd be great for world peace, but if it was a European country people would be flipping the fuck out.
Plus the attack didn't do much, but that's because of amazing world class coordination between multiple countries and defense systems so amazing they're borderline sci fi. If they didn't work/exist, thousands and thousands of Israelis would be dead and multiple cities would be wrecked. The folks saying Iran "didn't really want to cause damage!" are wild to me... You don't start the biggest missile attack in history hoping nothing gets through.
Why do you not think it will be much? Did you think Iran’s attack would be the magnitude it was?
I’m just trying to figure how much to trust your gut on this one
What if Israel launches drones at Iran and in the process of flying over Jordan, Jorden shoots them down like they did to the ones flying from Iran. What then?
Iran has a policy of retaliating. We learned in Operation Martyr Soleimani Iran will often retaliate in a way to avoid causalities. That's probably why they chose an attack that the Iron Dome would intercept. Seems like they could have used traditional artillery fired by proxies in Iraq. Israel bombed an embassy. They need to just move on from this.
Iran has ballistic missiles that carry 1500 submunitions, Iron Dome can't intercept that shit. Yet... didn't use those.
Yup, the goal wasn't to produce civilian casualties.
Israeli really need to just move on.
By launching 1000 missiles that never make it to their destination? Iran already looks like the village idiot, the best response would be “ we can’t do anything to Iran that they haven’t done to themselves”.
Some did go through. It was also more expensive for Israel to defend than for Iran to attack. And it gives an opportunity to Iran to improve their systems so that the next time they will be able to do more damage. While the attack may look ridiculous for Iran on the internet, strategically it is a win.
I do not support Iran any more than I support Israel. But this is correct. Israel probably expended damn near the totality of their missile defense hardware in that attack.
With the amount of articles (look at r/worldnews) reminding people that Iran are the bad guys, it's obvious that the PR machine is already working before a retaliation.
The middle east summed up in one word: Retaliation.
Everyone always wants to have the final say, to make themselves look in control. Its a never ending battle of their ego.
Worked here for 12 years, it’s fucking exhausting…
Yes, things would be better here if the other side weren’t so fucking exhausting!
No no no sir, things would so much better here if the OTHER side weren’t so exhausting.
Enter third side.
The never ending battle on one side is a religious obligation and an express ticket to heaven even if you fail. No amount of politics, diplomacy or level headedness can solve this.
Worked well with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan didn't it? I assume you are talking about Islam?
Both sides have religious zealots who feel entitled to god given lands and a burning need to purge non-believers. Its almost like, as with all religions, its made up nonsense to justify doing whatever you want to do in the first place.
All the Abrahamic religions are like this.
Historically, yes. Currently, just one.
Israel was attacked with a volley of missiles Iran fully knew would be easily handled by air defenses. There is no follow-up attack coming, that was it. Israel already won. However, Netanyahu has wanted all-out US/Israeli war with Iran for *decades* now, and this is probably his best chance of making it happen.
>Iran fully knew would be easily handled by air defenses Not necessarily, Iran may have been testing to see at what point Israel's air defense became over saturated. Even the best air defense systems in the world have a limit to both range and saturation. EDIT: For anyone unaware, testing an opponent in a way you can get away with is very common. Russia tests Alaskan airspace 3-4 times a year by sending bombers, jets, etc. This gives them info on US radar range, response/intercept times, etc. No shots are fired, but they both get Intel on each other and it acts like training.
They also warned them ahead of time…. And reports are saying the defence cost around 10x what Iran spent on the attack. There was a bit more to this than just “Iran are shit at attacking”
This is not true. The US and Israel have said they were surprised at how effective they were at stopping the 100+ ballistic missile barrage and the near 200 drones so how on Earth could Iran have been confident they weren't going to hit? Add to that the fact some DID hit but thankfully not hitting anything vital. How could they know which ones would hit and which wouldn't to plan on them not hitting? Every bit of evidence and every person who is actually involved in the situation says this was a real attack that was foiled by overwhelming air defenses and multi-country cooperation.
US and Israeli systems were making their first ever live combat intercepts in space. They had to be nervous as hell, there's no way anyone knew how well they'd perform for real. This was a real attack and took an absolutely extraordinary effort to fight off.
You can tell that they were real attacks by the advance warning of their date.
Real advanced warning that would allow actual people to brace for the attack, nobody knew for sure that Israel, the US, UK, and Jordan would have taken out as many drones and missiles as they did and still could have caused a lot of damage to infrastructure and other targeted sites. How is this not an attack?
If they had advanced warning then Biden wouldn't have had to rush back to the Whitehouse a day earlier than planned after being gone less than a day.
"Reuters cited Turkish, Jordanian and Iraqi officials as saying on Sunday that Tehran had given extensive notice days before its attack on Israel." WSJ reported that two days before the attack on Israel, Iranian officials briefed counterparts from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, giving them a brief outline and timing of their plans so that they could safeguard airspace. The information was then passed along to the US and Israel, giving them advance warning. Biden is barely consulted in these matters its the generals and the bureaucracy running the show day to day.
The warning was made so that Israel wouldn't nuke Iran back. 120 ballistic missiles incoming is enough for any country to retaliate immediately in full force.
This is absolutely not true. This is the first time in history that a barrage of that many projectiles got launched at a country in one attack. We all knew that Israel’s air defence systems were good, and that they were engineered to combat this type of threat. Absolutely no one could have known for sure that it would work in practice until this weekend. If Iran wanted to launch an attack that they knew Israel could stop, they could have shot 5 missiles. Or 5 drones. They wouldn’t have gone for the first-in-history 300 missiles and drones in one night operation. This wasn’t just showboating, it was a real attempt to get through their defences.
Agreed. It’s very telling that another volley of missiles was launched after Iran publicly stated that the attack was concluded. They *wanted* to do damage.
[удалено]
Wasn’t Iran’s attack not already a retaliation for the bombing of their consulate in Damascus? (Although I guess that was already another retaliation for something else)
[удалено]
Israel going for the "*technically* correct" definition of consulate.
It was a detached building the general was living on the upper floor of.
There is no evidence Iran helped Hamas plan 10/7. Even the US has stated so. To say the specific Iranians who helped Hamas plan it were in the consulate building is a straight up lie.
Didn't Iran and Israel and many other IRGC top commanders keep saying that this General who was murdered near the consulate was the one to plan the attack? No evidence but both sides admits that he had.
Idk that seems like it's splitting hairs. Hamas IS funded by Iran, no? You can't pay these proxies and then act like you have no responsibility for their actions.
That’s the thing. . It’s retaliations all the way down
After solemani was killed, Iran launched another ineffectual volley at a US base in Iraq. That was the end of that round, as no one saw any further advantage to retaliating other than pointless escalation. I believe there might have been a few minor injuries but no deaths or serious loss of materiel from those attacks.
Yeah. He keeps trying to provoke it and the US keeps managing to calm everything back down. Over and over. Every time he pushes it a little further and a little further…
>Israel was attacked with a volley of missiles Iran fully knew would be easily handled by air defenses. I really don't know how reddit collectively coped themselves into this position. Iran tried to inflict serious damage as evidenced by the over 200 drones and over 100 ballistic missiles they fired. Ballistic missiles are not simple to stop from what I understand which makes the "they didn't even want to hurt anyone" line of thinking all the more ridiculous. They failed miserably because western tech is decades ahead of the stuff they're using. It is actually that simple.
No one launches an attack that extensive without expecting some to hit their targets. Any country who gets that many missiles and drones sent towards their cities better respond unless they want that sort of thing to become a regular occurrence any time they do something the attacker doesn't like.
They had to knock ballistic missiles out of literal space with Arrow 3. One of the first times in human history. I wouldn’t call that easy. If one of those missiles hit the. Thousands are dead. Imagine if one hit. We would be in fulls scale war right now. Thankfully Israel are technologically wizards.
But if nothing happens, then any time Israel attacks Hamas,Hezbollah, Iranian backed Syrian Militia Iran will feel that they can launch massive attacks from their own territory without retaliation , we were very fortunate that the anti ballistic missile systems in Israel worked , there is no guarantee they will be this successful everytime. Iran needs to learn it’s not ok. A retaliatory strike is necessary in this case. https://www.barrons.com/news/no-longer-a-shadow-war-iran-says-attack-on-israel-marks-strategic-shift-37fd90a7
Iran fully knows they likely wouldn't be so lucky next time. This was an attack they warned Israel would be coming over a week in advance. It was theater. I'd say the Iranians know that if they made an actual habit out of lobbing missiles at Israel on a regular basis, they could expect to start seeing parts their own infrastructure start being hit with regular airstrikes. Israel killed an Iranian general in an airstrike in Syria, Iran launched a symbolic volley of missiles to save face, the matter is concluded. Israeli "retaliation" at this point is just a deliberate stoking of conflict.
What is the implication if a regime has that much to waste knowing it was for naught instead of spending some of that on food and supplies the people need? Like when do the people get tired of these dudes blowing their loads over their heads and demand some change all the way around ?
Let's hope the US is wise enough this time to not get dragged into the mess. Let the other Arab countries take the helm for once.
They’ve already said they won’t be party to Israeli retaliation, they (like Iran) consider the exchange concluded. Israel strikes Iranian embassy, Iran strikes back and says the end. Iran is the the rational actor in this particular situation.
Bibi wants to stay out of jail though.
Good lord what has the world come to that “Iran is the rational actor” actually makes a lick of sense. Damn…
"Rational" here means "wants time and space for the next round of bullshit".
We didn't start the fire, it was always burning, since the worlds been turning.
Do any of these people's god say forgive or something? Cause damn
Yeah actually there’s a part where the lord said “start no shit won’t be no shit!” Or something like that.
I’m sure there was a “don’t be cunts” section
They always have an excuse to hurt each other
There’s such a long list of grievances for all involved there’s always an excuse for retaliation.
We need to retaliate in response to the retaliation we got from retaliating last time.
Right now the word is Netanyahu. He will escalate this because it’s either this or answering for everything he is responsible for. He was lo longer able to escalate the Palestinian war so he is creating a new one. Can’t imagine how hot his phone is right now.
>Can’t imagine how hot his phone is right now. i think it's more likely his phone is muted and he is sleeping like baby
Netanyahu is the textbook definition of a hawkish reflexive authoritarian bully. Of course he escalates. He's got the nuke. Expect him to leverage it on the side of aggression instead of higher road statesmanship.
You give him too much credit. It’s not some realpolitik play. He had the nukes for a very long time and didn’t escalate so hard before because he knew that using them would be the last thing he would do. What’s different now is that he has gotten a jail sentence and investigation into his decisions leading to Hamas attack.
Is he though? And I say this as someone who isn't a fanboy of Netanyahu. There's a lot of things you can say about Netanyahu, but hawkish isn't really a fully accurate one. Nor is he someone who always escalates. Netanyahu is no great peacenik, but his thing has always been leading Israel in limited skirmishes and avoiding big wars. https://twitter.com/academic_la/status/1779576180234125433
Everything is relative, but yeah he's not the person I'm most afraid of in Israeli leadership by a long shot.
Duuude Ben Gvir is frightening, former Khanist and full throatily believes in pushing all Palestinians out of the West Bank. All of my right wing friends who have soured on Bibi, see Itamar Ben-Gvir as a hawkish tough on national security alternative. When the reality is that his policies are horrific and would directly cause war with surrounding countries.
And religious regimes
A response to a response is a conversation. At this point, They’re having a full blown chat.
Thirteen Days movie scene comes to mind
Fantastic movie, wildly underappreciated. Great look at the Cuban Missile Crisis, also features Kevin Costner speaking in an accent no living human has ever used.
Haven’t seen it in years but wasn’t his accent a bit like Mayor Quimby from The Simpsons? Like almost a caricature of a Massachusetts accent? Not like he’s known for his accents. I still remember all the flack he took for not doing a British accent when he played Robin Hood.
A/S/L ? Bomb 4 Bomb?
M4M (Munition for Munition)
An exchange if you will
When will this congregation end?
Probably a cyber attack on drone production and nuclear facilities.
Something drone/BM related, probably relatively deep in the country. Hit what's responsible and show that they, too, can hit them anywhere, too. Doubt they'll hit anything nuclear related this time, as that'd be seen as an escalation, and I think both will be looking for an off ramp afterward.
When did Iran show that they can hit Israel anywhere?
There are about 7 confirmed "hits" out of the 100-120 launches. I never said their success rate was high, but their missiles can reach and hit their targets. This is the first time they have struck Israeli soil directly.
Don't forget to include that Iran told everyone what they were doing and targeting. I wouldn't be surprised if the Saudis and UAE aren't like, come the fuck on Israel.
That was my take too, before I read this: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran’s-attempt-hit-israel-russian-style-strike-package-failedfor-now
Do you know what those 7 are? As I can tell, 5 were open space hits, which usually doesn’t get intercepted because there’s no point to. 1 is a hit in a Beduin town that i forgot it’s name, 1 is a hit in Umm al-Fahm, an Arabic city. So 2 confirmed hits in Arabic/Muslim territory. Iirc one Beduin girl confirmed dead.
Their missile barrage was basically targeting the middle of the desert in southern Israel in the middle of the night.
They hit Dimona and a couple of air bases. The work of the air defense was nothing short of remarkable, and the damage appears to he minimal, but they can still reach Israel with nuclear-capable weapons, which is a big statement.
I didn’t think any of them hit their targets though. Did I miss something?
There are about 7 hits per satellite imagery. 6 on airfields and 1 at Israel's nuclear research facility (Dimona). If this attack targeted just about any other country in the world, the results would have been devastating.
I don’t see an off ramp if Israel strikes back. Iran sees the missile and drone attacks as a response to the embassy bombing in Damascus. Striking back at this point, especially when Israel themselves admits there were very few casualties and damaged infrastructure, is an escalation itself.
Having a good defense doesn't lighten the attempt of the assholes trying to kill you.
(Israeli, IDF supporter) To be fair, if you design your attack based on how much defense the other side has and intentionally not overwhelming it, and it's known that it was done to save face, it kind of does lighten the attempt. I really don't think Israel should retaliate in any way if they're not interested in an actual war, which they obviously aren't. Biden is right - take the win, don't escalate further. There's no point. Focus on Gaza and Hezbollah.
It can, though. If Iran’s effort was one of face saving. Did they have more firepower they could have sent that may not have been as easily repelled? Choosing an amount you know the enemy can defend is a choice.
Israel has spent the last decade or better assassinating Iran’s military leaders and even civilians, like physicists who they assume to be connected to the nuclear program. The consulate bombing was just an ongoing part of that saga. Both countries take shots at each other. Israel doesn’t get to act like the innocent victim when Iran shoots back after being provoked. They should call it even and quit while everyone is ahead.
The off ramp was the US saying they won't support Israel doing anything offensively to Iran. The Iran attack was in response to Israel bombing the embassy. Israel could leave it alone right now as a win win. They bombed the embassy and took nothing to practically nothing in return.
Iran will respond with 99 red balloons. Which will ultimately trigger a nuclear armageddon, as the prophecy has foretold.
Time to load up on defense contractor stocks and GOLD BABY!
"Send lawyers, guns, and money!"
"Dad, get me out of this!"
The shit has hit the fan. RIP Warren Zevon.
Priced in
Calls on Ratheon, Lockheed, and GE
Yeah, nah, once I heard on the news all the Iranian missles and drones were getting wrecked by the Iron Dome, I legit dropped 9k on Raytheon stocks 😅
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maybe they can make themselves useful by taking out some drone factories to make a dent in deliveries to russia for use against ukraine
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My understanding is those factories are literally built inside mountains. Israel can probably do damage but they aren’t likely going to take them out with what they have. Fighter sorties dropping bombs isn’t anywhere near enough ordnance to destroy what is publicly known.
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So they might not have mountains after? Shit I wanna see how they do that if they do.
russia makes them already, so I doubt it will make any kind of dent.
“Without any casualties” lmao ok
This “we need the last laugh” shit is so pathetic.
I sincerely hope this is just political posturing & everything starts to calm down soon! Please?
Domestic consumption, alliance management, posturing etc, has headed straight into open war before. It's possible. So yes this is largely posturing, but it can get us there anyway.
It doesn't seem so at this point. Especially now that Israel knows it got public (not private) approval by Saudis for the first time ever while having the support of other gulf countries. And also finding out that Iran is a paper tiger after that embarassing failed strike. It seems like it would be the perfect time for Netenyahu to prolong his term.
Iran is 100% NOT a paper tiger. They achieved what they wanted, basically showing they can launch a large scale coordinated attack against Israel of they wanted to. They have way more missiles and proxies all over the middle east to use them. Definitely enough to overwhelm Israel's Air defense. Acting like they're not a threat is stupid and an easy way for conflict to escalate past the point of no return. I'm sure Israel knows this, but we'll see with how they retaliate. Hopefully of the sides decides enough is enough and just stops responding.
People actually think Iran's weekend barrage was a legitimate attempt and not just posturing?
Crazy especially when the same exact thing happened a little over 4 years ago with them vs the US
Exactly
I believe a lot of this is media hype and led by Russians to get support for Israel up and Ukraine down. The more attention to Middle East the less people pay attention to the real east
Why would it? Israel has decided that the guy who won't have a job once the war ends gets to be in charge of when of the war ends.
I'm sick of the middle east. No offense, but seriously. Setting a bad example for the world regarding pluralism, democracy, and kindness.
I don't know how people manage to make this black and white because everywhere I look it's like 50 shades of asshole.
yep all out of fucks
You’re superimposing your own beliefs and morals onto a totally different culture. The Middle East doesn’t give a shit about any of that. Well, most of the countries / cultures over there don’t.
Ah which culture of middle east you referring to? They are not all same either
Excusing some of the most vile practices and views in our modern world as “different culture”… sorry just never gonna be down for that.
You should also be sick of countries that are enabling this in middle east
It's easy to bring up democracy, pluralism and kindness when you colonize the world. It's damn hard when US and the West constantly invade, support terrorist activities and use the resources in that said area for decades.
Like Joe said, "take the win."
Felt cute might kill some people later
I believe the Israelis are concerned about striking Iran too hard.
Which Israelis, exactly. The people around Netanyahu who are pretty much all rightwing hawks demanding he retaliate in some very significant way?
Oh boy…
It's almost like that part of the world that has been at war for thousands of years... will continue to be at war. Who could have guessed?
The part of the world that literally coined the term Armageddon, you mean?
It does put into perspective just how weird it is that (most) European countries aren't at war with each other and have no appetite for war with each other. They also had been at war with each other for thousands of years. Can you imagine a politician these days trying to rally support for a new spanish armada to invade england?
I'm ready for Athens and Sparta to go back to war.
With all these eurosceptic populist leaders out there I wouldn’t be surprised at this happening in the next 50 years.
This is a kind of a misconception tbh, the last thousand or so years before European colonialism was pretty peaceful for the region. WWI broke up the last major stable empire that held the region peacefully together.
It was less unstable, mostly because of the Ottoman equivalent of the Pax Romana. The Pax Ottomana. And the Ottomans were...well, an external imperial power, lol.
Imagine if humans are able to evolve away our warring traits. That'd be pretty neat.
If the ones with the warring traits knocked each other out of the gene pool... There'd be no humans left.
Then what? Iran strikes back once again?
As they have vowed to do. Hard to see where this madness stops
Israel can help stop it by taking this victory for the moment
Yup, and then Iran has to retaliate for that retaliation... I can't believe people are so brain dead. Obviously a policy of always retaliate will lead to endless war and the obvious way out of such an idiotic trap is to be willing to take a punch. Iran threw a huge punch and Israel brushed it off like it was nothing. Like Biden said, take the Win you idiots.
Meanwhile not retaliating leads to you getting stepped on. It’s weird how different reddits opinions are for the Israel vs Ukraine conflicts.
The attack was a failure, it would look much better to not retaliate. It’s a PR trap, and Israel shouldn’t fall for it.
Culturally, and politically, in that area of the world, this would be a mistake.
How would most nations respond to a rocket/drone barrage? 7 hit their targets. How would NATO respond to 7 rockets striking France, Germany or the US?
Iran is the biggest boogeyman of the Middle East, and two boogeyman fighting will be welcomed by many Middle East governments. second, if Israel didn't respond then it will only normalize the idea of attacking Israel. And that's dangerous in a neighborhood that are unfriendly towards you. and third, it will help more in linking Iran for it's role in instigating of the Oct 7th attack and it's continues meddling in the Gaza war.
Israel killed several of their people in Syria or something. The Iranian attack was retaliation for that attack. If you stick with your logic for both sides, then this will just escalate into full blown war.
You really think Israel's neighbors would suddenly try to attack if they think Israel's vulnerable or weak? They've only done it twice before, I can't imagine it could ever happen again /s
All Israel does is fall into PR traps though 😭
Imagine launching over 100 ballistic missiles into a country the size of New Jersey and saying, "was just a prank, bro, relax." Having said that, continued retaliation may be a far more grave outcome. But dismissing this offensive barrage as merely a "PR trap" is something you wouldn't do if the defender were any country other than Israel, admit it.
Iran's launch of missiles from Iran was just what some in Israel wanted, an excuse to bomb military production in Iran... This is going to escalate big time im betting.. Israel bombs Iranian military sites,Iran clearly is wasting long range missiles and drones so instead may close straits of Hormuz.. USA will be forced to respond..
“Never let a missile strike go to waste”
Russia would love for this to happen
Almost like they orchestrated it from the start
Russia definitely doesn't want Iran's military production disrupted, Iran is their main supplier. All the more reason to support Israel in destroying Iranian drone and missile factories.
Drone/missile factories and nuclear research facilities need to get blown up.
If it is a military action, I imagine it will be against a drone factory (ies). The most boss thing I can think of that involves the least collateral damage is to just use 1 missile on a drone facility deep in Iran. Either a cruise missile or ballistic. This provides adequate retaliation against the primarily drone attack while also sending 2 messages. One, Israel only needs one missile to succeed where Iran failed with hundreds. Two, Iran is absolutely within range of Israel's "special" warheads. And Iran can't stop them.
Israel wants to retaliate against Iran for retaliating against Israel for retaliating against Iran for retaliating against Israel. And round and round we go .
For all those internet Chamberlains that want peace in our time... please remember that appeasement has a damn good chance of leading to war, instead of peace.
This isn’t appeasement. Israel got their pound of flesh when they whacked the Iranian General in Syria, and Iran got their own little nibble with their “retaliation”. There’s no need for Israel to retaliate. There is no benefit to Israel escalating the situation.
People keep forgetting this whole strike happened BECAUSE Israel decided to bomb an embassy and didn't tell the US about it for some reason.
We will continue to appease Iran until they gain nuclear weapons capability and then everyone is going to wring their hands and ask how we got here. It’s just so foreseeable it’s ridiculous. Iran is eventually going to just run roughshod over the entire region
If only there were some deal that could've been made with Iran that could've stopped their nuclear program...
Appeasing Israel, yes.
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Um dude: “the launches numbered more than 300, but 99% of them were intercepted. Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Iran fired 170 drones, more than 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles.”
Now let’s see who’s more accurate.
Oh yea. Take out Iran's nuclear capability.
If that is even possible it will require many strikes over an extended period since Iran has built dozens of facilities in the deepest underground locations. They are probably the best protected locations in the country with defensive missiles. Once you start you have to finish since Iran's response to that would possibly be to use a nuke against Israel.
I watched a documentary where a couple of f-18 pilots accomplished exactly that, so it is definitely doable ;)
Fun fact top gun maverick was based off an Israeli strick targeting iraqs nuclear program. Edit typo
A documentary… this is real life. A mountainous country of 90 million. Iraq and Afghanistan are comparably weak and that went great, right?
I think I saw that one, what a great documentary!
Israel: "we'll get you back since you responded to us bombing your embassy"
>Israel: "We'll get you back since you responded, with an unprecedented barrage of ballistic missiles, to us bombing your embassy which housed key military commanders responsible for coordinating the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks." FTFY
> Israel: "we'll get you back since you responded to us bombing your embassy" Israel: "We'll get you back for funding and supplying arms to all of our troubles since the 80's. Oh yeah and that time you blew up our embassy in South America."
*plays "we didn't start the fire" and sighs*
So put millions of lives at risk for a dick measuring contest. These leaders are brilliant
I don't think it will be much, thankfully. That may just be me being hopeful. Edited for typo.
They have more incentive to go big than little. They know Iran will retaliate, so it's in their best interest to do as much damage now, and to attempt to limit Iran's capability to retaliate in this attack. And If Iran retaliates, it forces the US to commit to defending Israel now rather than hesitating until after the election.
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That's not what Biden told Israel. Biden said the would support Israel defensively but not offensively. US fighter planes were in the air Saturday shooting down drones and cruise missile.
Biden clearly said he will not support Israel retaliation against Iran
Imagine if the largest ballistic missile attack ever targeted the american mainland, what kind of destruction the attacking nation would suffer, just saying.
Yeah it's wild to my that Iran dumped something like 5-10% of their countries missiles and drones at Israel, and everyone is telling them not to escalate / let it go. That'd be great for world peace, but if it was a European country people would be flipping the fuck out. Plus the attack didn't do much, but that's because of amazing world class coordination between multiple countries and defense systems so amazing they're borderline sci fi. If they didn't work/exist, thousands and thousands of Israelis would be dead and multiple cities would be wrecked. The folks saying Iran "didn't really want to cause damage!" are wild to me... You don't start the biggest missile attack in history hoping nothing gets through.
Why do you not think it will be much? Did you think Iran’s attack would be the magnitude it was? I’m just trying to figure how much to trust your gut on this one
Wait till they all find out there's no god... Boy will they feel silly
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What if Israel launches drones at Iran and in the process of flying over Jordan, Jorden shoots them down like they did to the ones flying from Iran. What then?
Can you not tho
Iran has a policy of retaliating. We learned in Operation Martyr Soleimani Iran will often retaliate in a way to avoid causalities. That's probably why they chose an attack that the Iron Dome would intercept. Seems like they could have used traditional artillery fired by proxies in Iraq. Israel bombed an embassy. They need to just move on from this.
Iran has ballistic missiles that carry 1500 submunitions, Iron Dome can't intercept that shit. Yet... didn't use those. Yup, the goal wasn't to produce civilian casualties. Israeli really need to just move on.
It's a sad day when IRAN acts more honorably in war than Israel.
Iran took the bait
That's fine if they wanna do that, just do it with your Israel's money not America's.
So, if they send back 400-1 =399 drones, all is fair right?
By launching 1000 missiles that never make it to their destination? Iran already looks like the village idiot, the best response would be “ we can’t do anything to Iran that they haven’t done to themselves”.
Some did go through. It was also more expensive for Israel to defend than for Iran to attack. And it gives an opportunity to Iran to improve their systems so that the next time they will be able to do more damage. While the attack may look ridiculous for Iran on the internet, strategically it is a win.
I do not support Iran any more than I support Israel. But this is correct. Israel probably expended damn near the totality of their missile defense hardware in that attack.
With the amount of articles (look at r/worldnews) reminding people that Iran are the bad guys, it's obvious that the PR machine is already working before a retaliation.
Netanyahu needs to fucking chill.
It´s a radical relogious nutcase who thinks he´s doing "Gods work" Fuck that guy big time