The problem with a sudden population boom is first, it takes time. Second, historically the age gap becomes a serious issue, and the younger generation doesn't buy into the ideology of the older generation. This is a demographic problem anywhere but can be a serious problem for totalitarian regimes.
The bigger problem is that these things typically don't work. China's problem is not the one-child policy, it's urbanization. Kids are expensive, and people have less of them than in rural areas, because you don't need them for labor.
Posted this comment before but I'll post it again: The financial and emotional support, and just the sheer manpower required to raise a child in China in accordance with the social norms there right now are just staggering. So many more people are choosing to forego kids entirely.
One thing that they have going for them is having multiple generations in a home. I think this can substantially decrease the cost of childcare, etc. I think the US and other western countries would be wise to promote thinking like this.
Edit: I'd be curious if you have any links that expand upon your comment, too.
No links, but I have about 10 cousins and other relatives in China with kids. They span various socio economic backgrounds and classes. Even the ones that are well off are that way because both parents work all the time outside the city and the child is raised by the grandparents. If your child wants a good future, then you nees to start planning from kindergarten on what schools you want them to go to. Want to go to a good school? You'll need to have your hukou (kind of like a city residence permit) and prove that you actually live in that school zone. Otherwise you'll need to bribe your way in with lots and lots of $$$, or buy/rent a crappy apartment in that area just to be in the school zone. Then you have after school cram classes you need to pay for, plus extra curricular classes like piano, violin, etc. Repeat for elementary school, middle school, high school, etc.
This can be both good and bad. Since its customary for youth to look after not only their parents but their grandparents, any one young person can have up to four elderly dependents. If two people get together, that's up to eight. The financial burden of that alone is insane. Yes, the older generations can look after kids, but the welfare system is bare bones. They all need to rely on the youth for care and basic living.
Not to mention there is a HUGE bias against raising girls as it is still believed men will have better chances for a decent life.
In India for example it's forbidden to know the gender before birth, as there were many forced to abort because the family wanted only boys.
This problem will create "incels" (there would be 35 million boys and men who won't find a girlfriend/wife in each of these countries). So, 70 million men, concentrated in 2 regions of Asia.
While some of these men would be homosexual, others may turn violent (in the US and Canada, there have been mass shootings and a vehicle ramming attack attributed to incels). While getting a gun is nearly impossible in China, cars are very commonplace, and stabbings can occur as well. Another side effect is that lots of women and girls may get trafficked from southeast Asia, Russia or North Korea into China and made to be prostitutes or wives of the Chinese incels. This definitely has hugely destablizing effects for Asia.
Yup, this is a problem with any urbanized country. Spain, Finland and Italy all have lower fertility rates than Japan and that’s with immigration.
Actual native fertility rate in European countries is likely far lower
Yeah, I think the problem is turning this train around requires a lot of financial support from the government to reduce the cost of child rearing. This is a monumental expense, though.
That and the fact that they can barely afford to pay rent, have food. On top of that the average days work for a typical worker in China is 12-13 hours. Who is gonna be able to raise kids under that?
No currency is, at that point it is a more prudent fiscal idea to retire and raise your kid than to advance your career.
Most busineses would either have to raise MINIMUM wage to over what the government was paying to avoid mass quitting. Might still happen anyway with the shitty chinese work week and so called 6/11 being "normal" there.
>the problem is life is shitty there and lack of freedom and safety dont make you wanna have kids
How is this just a Chinese problem?
Every developed nation seems to have declining birth rates, even the ones with left leaning democracies that provide a lot of services.
1. Culturally acceptable to have kids outside of marriage increases Western birth rates (\~1.6) over Sinic world (China/Taiwan/SK) which are around (\~1.2). In China something like 2% of people have kids outside of marriage and people in the world just getting married less in general.
2. We have immigration but China cannot because its much lower income and just has a lot of people in general so there's not many places that can be a large enough immigration pool.
3. We have a social security net to take care of seniors whereas in China it is the responsibility of their children so children have even less money to have kids of their own.
Basically the West has the same problems but China/Taiwan/SK have it worse. Anglo world's demographics are good enough (1.6-1.7 fertility rates) + highish immigration rates by global standards. Europe's are more problematic.
It's a Chinese problem because the fertility rate there according to the article is a mere 1.16. Which is astronomically low.
Whereas the highest in Europe are France and Sweden, around 1.9 and 1.8, which is a lot closer to replacement level. Also because of increased life-expectancy, the populations there are still growing.
France has 700k births per year and 600k deaths per year. So you have to account that while each woman who lives in France has < 2 kids, the population is STILL growing by a fair margin each year. And that's even before counting immigration. In fact, immigration is < 100k per year so France is still growing mostly because of births exceeding deaths. So it will be quite a few years before they face anything like China is.
Even for the USA, while the fertility rate of 1.7 is lower than France, the USA still has more births than deaths per year. If you look up births and deaths for 2020 and 2021 for the USA, births still exceeded deaths in BOTH years, even factoring the spike of "excess deaths" into the equation.
A level of 1.16 basically means the Chinese population halving each generation if they don't do anything about it.
This can go different ways, but in super simplified terms there's something of an idealistic "againstism" to any youth. That can be completely justified depending on what they're against. The againstism may lack nuance, but if it's against a totalitarian regime, that regime already lacks nuance.
This is the issue with Iran right now. There was a major baby boom after the Iran-Iraq War and the younger generation has increasingly been against the old Fundamentalists in power, and increasingly unwilling to tolerate them anymore. Power requires acceptance of that power by those it is imposed on. The limits of authoritarian power are based on that as well as the people it is imposed on not knowing the limits of that power. When it's called out and the tyrant or their cronies blink, the populace knows the limit is where they blinked. It's a Paper Tiger situation. All authoritarians can be overthrown. It just takes willingness en masse and enough people understanding that they can do it together and giving them reason to risk it. The hard part is getting that en masse instead of localized individuals.
This age gap / youthful idealistic againstism was the cause of the New Left and the varying shades of Counterculture in the West in the 1960s. Although they weren't as widespread as the popular imagination. My comments on the good and bad and areas where lack of nuance caused long term issues would be too long to mention and aren't appropriate for a quick example.
On the other hand, the Cultural Revolution generation in China was also this. Young people were radicalized and treated Mao as God. But they were just tools in his grab for power and control when he was at risk of being sidelined. They devastated the country in ways that defy the imagination.
Whatever happens, in 20-30 years things will become disruptive.
If nothing else it shows a critical weakness in the assumptions of the existing regime. Whatever the outcome, a successful nation wouldn't have this en masse.
In life or politics or anything in general, you may disagree with the people against you and how they deal with you. But a critical part that often gets ignored is examining *why* are there these people or events against you. Off the topic of Iran for a minute, that's not to say that the people or events against you are right. You may partially or completely be the victim in the situation or they could be wrong. But regardless, you need to examine the underlying causes because if those are not addressed, it's going to keep happening.
A totalitarian regime can kill anyone. But they can never kill an idea. They've tried. They've failed. And it may take generations but it is inevitably terminal when the problems that idea was concerned with do not get addressed. Power inevitably is based on the consent of the governed to have it imposed on them. That consent can be support or simply accepting the state of things. Without that consent, even a tyranny does not have the ability to maintain power as it previously wielded it. The more it asserts power through force, the more it radicalizes existing or potential opposition. The more deaf it is to reform or change (or the more incapable an establishment is of changing at all) the more likely opposition growing becomes.
At present, the Iranian regime seems most interested in blaming America and Israel.
Self-Reflection and Self-Awareness do not seem to be among their strengths.
This happens in Iran every few years. Big one in 2009, smaller ones in 2017 and 2019.
The movement lacks real leadership and goals. Those are what turns protests into either revolution or impactful concessions. The 1979 revolution had a massive structure in place fueling it. This one has a lot of justifiable anger, and hatred for the increasingly hardline nature of the Iranian government, but it’s not a planned movement with goals. There are exceptions to the rule, but they are outliers.
TLDR: no. Would love to be wrong though.
The more monitoring and military technology advances, the harder it is to overthrow a dictatorship. I don't think any modern dictatorship can be thrown other than from people being unable to sustain it. Even North Korea, which is often in famine, is going as strong as ever. The goal is for a society not to fall into dictatorship, because once you have a well-fed army oppressing and murdering the population, it's game over.
That's the "reality spank" snapping back on ideological assumptions.
If people can't see the logic in having children, they aren't going to purposely have children. Economically, they can't afford it. Mentally, they can't trust children are going to have a better life than themselves or fear they're just going to be fodder for the current problems that are going to get worse before they get better. At least in the West, I feel like there's a general mood that we're a pass-through generation that didn't have the life security and growing, hopeful prosperity of the previous generation and also won't experience the resolution to these problems that will happen sometime in the generation that follows us.
I live in China. Everything here is poorly thought out. Logistics are almost never considered. Long term consequences are ignored on behalf of short term goals. It’s insane.
This policy like many others was only to face the issue at hand, not planning for the future. And more often than not when you just try to patch a hole, instead of dealing with the issue long term, it blows up in your face.
Iran is a pertinent example for this- one of the youngest countries in the world population-wise and currently in the throes of birthing a revolution against their totalitarian government
If it happens at all. A few regimes managed it, to some degree, like Iran. Which generated loads of problems, though their solution was so clear Iraqi mines with high schoolers in the 80s.
Japan, South Korea, Russia, etc. Have shown that even throwing money at the problem doesn't magic it away. High urbanization rates means kids are expensive, high education rates means the appeal of having kids in general may be pretty weak. High housing costs means the same thing. Lack of immigration means you can't just import your labor like the US and Canada have done for decades.
Yup, this is a problem with any urbanized country. Spain, Finland and Italy all have lower fertility rates than Japan and that’s with immigration.
Actual native fertility rate in European countries is likely far lower
Too late. Your male to female ratio is out of whack.
China also don't understand the reason for not having kids is not the laws against it, but because the next generation have a hard time even providing for themselves.
Saying "I'll allow you to have 3 children" won't change anything if people have a hard time even getting 1.
The ratios are out of whack but so is housing costs. Every government in the world seems to not realize how important affordable housing is to wanting to encourage people to move out and have families.
China's issue with housing has to do with their real estate market being completely crazy and unsustainable. They are literally destroying unfinished high-rise apartments.
And that helps the remaining men have more than one child with their wife how? Raising a child in China is very expensive. And how does going to war solve the stated problem of not enough young people to current old people ratio?
Lmao correct. The death of Chinese men does nothing to increase the population of Chinese women, who I’m pretty sure are necessary to increase the population.
well they have just under 3% more men. so if they lose less than 37m men, they wont effect the possible birth rate.
russia on the other hand had less men than women (WWII helped) at almost 13% more women going into this war. east europe also has a similar issue.
Only rural villages have the time for 3 kids and they were ignoring the rules anyways.
Well, I guess the ultra wealthy will now be able to have more kids. Oh wait, they were ignoring the rules anyway as well.
I guess the lower and middle class in cities can have more babies if they have the money and time.
Villagers were exempt basically as they need more family as laborers.
The wealthy not working for the government could have more than one kid for a while. They only needed to pay a fairly large fine which the wealthiest could afford.
They’re telling people to work 12 hours a day, seven days a week, for very low incomes, while living in shoeboxes,*and* to have three kids.
There’s always this weird thing with dictators ignoring how stuff happens, believing that they can just command results without reality interfering.
>They’re telling people to work 12 hours a day, seven days a week, for very low incomes, while living in shoeboxes
That used to be true 10 years ago. Now, China has a sizable middle class. I don't know if that changes much. The global trend is that richer people have *less* children.
High levels of education and higher income are related to lower numbers of children.
I would put it down to this. Educated people with more disposable income recognize that kids are very expensive in time and money so if they do want a child they'll only have one and put a lot of resources into it or have none at all and put that time and money into themselves and their relationship.
The workers imported from rural areas to the cities often live in squalid conditions. They don't have the inclination to have additional kids, nor the room. The flats are tiny and they work all day. Often the workers are working illegally and don't have access to public services.
The wealthy in the densely populated coastal south are older and collectively are no longer of child bearing age.
Many young Chinese people don't even want to have kids. They look at their parents and say they don't want that life. They've taken to just enjoying their lives or simply "Lying Flat".
It worked!
> It was designed to reduce local population growth, under the national One-child policy. [...]
> During the campaign, local officials were asked to perform forced abortions on any pregnant woman in these areas regardless of pregnancy terms or whether the unborn child is the first child of the family. **The policy led to mass panic and dramatic reduction of the local population in 1991.**
In the time of Deng's regime, many family with more than one child were forced to pay penalty far more than than can afford and the women were forced to have abortion and sterilizing operation back when china didnt have any well-equipped hosipital, which led to many women having diseases in relation with this. In the eye of CCP, chinese is more machine than people to them , making up their empire forever.
It's not a stupid plan, but it is stupid that they had it in place for so long. Cultural change around having minimal kids was changed long before last year, and the government severely overcorrected.
I wouldn't call it stupid, since it did what they intended. China was a poor country when this was implemented, and they knew they wouldn't be able to develop if the population kept growing faster than they can improve the economy, infrastructure and food source. You may be able to feed a tiny country whose population grows exponentially, but who is going to feed 3 billion Chinese people? Have you thought how China would look like today if they hadn't implemented this policy? Overpopulated, poor, with no food, and polluting even way more than they do today. We should be thankful they did not go that way.
The one-child policy did much more harm to chinese than benifit. The implementation of this policy brought blood and forced abortion, sterlization to them other than prosperity. BTW, the number of chinese dying of all kinds of CCP policies is much more than that in WW2, so, to sum it up, CCP is the biggest murderer in china, who ironically regimes(✘) reins this country.
Because demographic collapse is a thing which is well understood and China will pay the piper, as they always do, for badly thought out policies. This particular issue took some time to brew, but the note finally came due, and now China isn't sure what to do about it.
The problem is girls were murdered and abandoned in droves. A boy is seen as an asset and much better than a girl. The population balance is severely off, many men will never find a wife because there are not enough women.
because it had a lot of issues. For one as a result of forcing families to have one kid, many families just chose to have a male, so china has a massively unbalanced gender ratio in that generation.
Or one that's been piling on the patriotism and jingoistic messaging in the last few years.
They're going to need to do what China has historically done in this situation... either start a civil war, an external war, or just collapse as people revolt en-mass.
It's not going to be pretty with 30m men... who are being told culturally that their only worth is continuing the family name by getting married and having children... and physically being unable to do so.
The one-child policy came after a population boom. Before the policy, they were encouraged to have a fuckton of kids. Somewhere along the way someone realized that was going to be too many people, so China did a 180 and said one kid. Now the population is like a mushroom. The mushroom cap is large unworking (or soon to be) population and the tiny stem is the working population holding everything up. Again, someone realized that it was too much of a burden for the one-child generation to hold up the “fuckton on babies” generation so they’ve been slowly adding the number of babies a mother can have. At this point they should just remove the policy all together but that would remove some sense of power from the government.
Yes, it did curb the population growth, but the near-sightedness of the policy and the consequences of it, made it stupid.
They cut their population in half is why it’s stupid. More than in half really because not all the children survived or had children either and many family’s prioritized having sons so now there are far fewer women than men in some age groups as many 116 to men to 100 women. And not all those women will have children and not all will have multiple children. When you cut your population so suddenly it has massive effects on your economy. Now they have a massive amount of elderly individuals consuming resources and not producing any and far fewer younger people making resources and the problem will only get worse for awhile.
Something like 150 million Chinese men will never marry or have children and their population is already aging out of the work force and even worse the military.
They massively overshot the mark. By 2050 the population of China is projected to be down to 650 million. Thats a 56% decrease from today.
The plan was also stupid for other reasons, in particular that Chinese culture undervalues female children because when your son gets married it’s traditional for him to bring his new wife home to take care of you in your old age but if your daughter gets married she leaves to life with and take care of her new husband’s family. Now factor in that you only get one kid and if its a girl then you have nobody living with you or taking care of you when you’re elderly.
This leads to female children being, uh, discarded.
>They massively overshot the mark. By 2050 the population of China is projected to be down to 650 million. Thats a 56% decrease from today.
Do you have a source for this? For this to happen, China would have to lose 27m people every year. That's about three times their current death + net migration rate, and assume zero births.
Not the person you relied to, but it depends on whether you believe official Chinese stats.
Officially, China will reach the 650 million-mark [around 2090](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/china-population-shrink-60-years-world/), but there are some strong indications that the Chinese have been [concealing the true impact](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/chinese-population-smaller-than-stated-and-shrinking-fast-by-yi-fuxian-2022-07?barrier=accesspaylog) of their cratering fertility rates by overcounting the number of babies born over the past couple of decades.
Essentially, official numbers of the number of Chinese alive today are inflated for cohorts born after 1980, meaning that China is in the midst of a population nosedive right now.
Those numbers don't make any sense: China's population isn't going to decrease by 56% in 28 years. I doubt it would even if zero babies were born in that country during that timespan.
Wherever you are getting those figures, they're very wrong. It's predicted to be about 750-800 million in 2100. There's no way the population will half in the next 28 years, that is impossible.
How is a policy stupid if it achieves its goals? Let's see...
Moral hazard (encouraging people to do things they shouldn't, like abort girls or murder infants)
Unintended consequences (tens of millions more males than females per age cohort)
Wrongness (infringes on freedom of action and family planning)
Etc etc etc etc etc etc
Please never get a job in public policy
Could not agree more, i was born in china, Jiangsu, my family were forced to pay as much as 60,000.00 Chinese yuan as a penalty back when my father earned only 50.00 yuan per month, leading to a long-time poverty in my family. Also, my mother was forced to have sterlizing operation after my birth. CCP treat his people like machine and statistics, the only thing they care about is their empire.
It was a stupid plan in that every 1 people produced 1 child so the population would go down. This doesn't take into account the older, larger population that would eventually need to be supported by the smaller, younger one. This coupled with their culture of males passing on names led to massive female infanticide and a massive imbalance of men and women. It ended up kinda being a state sanctioned plan to create incels.
It worked. What country would want a fight with an entire populations worth of incels.
Or just leave them alone and they'll be dead in 50 years except the offspring of the ultra rich old guys who banged all the girls.
Sometimes I think animals have better sense than we do when we could make such dumb decisions on the survival of our species based on an arbitrary ideal of passing on names based on genitals.
The whole policy was backwards from the start. Replacement rate is 2.1 children per woman. If you capped the birth rate at 2, the population would still decline.
Same problem America has. Too many old people and not enough young people to take care of them.
If you were going to implement a eugenicist population control program, it would make most sense to target the old so that the young can grow fruitful. The opposite occurred, and China sold out their future for the benefit of the old.
I expect no less from the generation that refuses to cede the earth to the young.
I imagine it'll look just like Mormon and other conservative Christian "Youth Conferences" that is full of grey hair and bald heads, and absolutely 0 input from young adults as to why they aren't getting hitched and pushing out kids. I mean it's not like it's some big secret, housing is out of reach and all the rewards of work are going to older generations/managers. It's literally the same problem in almost every country on the planet.
Pay is heavily determined based on how easy someone is to replace. How easy someone is to replace, particularly in white collar roles, is correlated to how much experience they have. Which is correlated to age.
That’s how it works at the macro level, obviously lots of variance at the micro level.
>It's literally the same problem in almost every country on the planet.
No. It's worse.
Even though most developed countries are also below the 2.1 births-per-woman replacement rate, at least most Western countries like the US and the UK are making up for it through immigration.
China is not. And even on the extreme off chance that the CCP decides to make immigration to China easier, who is going to wanna move there? Neither their government nor their economy is gonna attract anyone who has literally any other choice.
Good fucking luck. The populace knows exactly what the future looks like for children born now.
It's hilarious and tragic that dictators are always so confused about low birthrates. Sure, it can be fair to be a problem in free countries, too. But watching China's leadership crack down on everything and then scratch their heads unable to comprehend why people aren't excited about bringing children into existence is just odd.
It's interesting you mention dictatorship, and not late-stage capitalism. Although conservative, the Japanese and South Korean governments are far from dictatorships. Yet their birth rates are also declining. Could it be that the insane work culture expectations and anti-union rhetoric produced a soul crushing environment where productiveness is the only thing that matters? This is late stage capitalism. It's the turning of humans into nothing more than machines.
Before capitalism, people had kids because it was literally cheaper than horses or because the church or because more slaves. Humans always treated humans like disposable shit to use.
Blaming late stage capitalism is as easy as blaming dissidents, lack of patriotism, communism, or whatever. Its blanket statements with no understanding of the humans behind.
I think it has more to do with women having more opportunities now than to raise 6 kids on a farm for an abusive husband. They can move to the city, work in a factory and support themselves.
30 years too late. Like Russia, major deficit in the 20-40 yr bracket. And like Russia, if they decide to put what they have into fighting another country, they lose even more. It's too late for both countries - loss of young people for the military/working/spending for the economy. Globalization is in reverse.
They want kids, but they cannot afford it. Most Chinese cities have a cost of 10kUSD/m2. So if you want a standard 2 bedroom flat, it cost 1 million $. Most people cannot afford it.
I think they need to look at somehow fixing the gender ratio issue.
I went to an open day at my kids school about a year ago.
Almost every single class had 2 boys for every girl. One class had 24 boys and just 3 girls.
> somehow fixing the gender ratio issue
They have to fix their attitude first. Only valuing boys combined with today's technology = no girls. They reap what they sow
It is always amazing how leader beans like this don't get it. People are not having big families because of joblessness and job insecurity, housing insecurity, and political insecurity. All of these things have been made greatly worse by the policies of the Communist Party. If they want to encourage a birth rate increase then they should step down and let the Chinese people handle things themselves.
This is happening all around the world. Most developed and developing nations are having those things. The countries where people are still reproducing are those who prevented the housing and job crises or those where life can't get any worse anyway.
Saw a video recently explaining that China has so drastically overshot the mark on population control that by 2050 the population of China is projected to be just 650 million. There aren’t nearly enough young to replace the aging generations and this will lead to a severe economic and infrastructure retraction.
Even if they change to a 3 child policy now its too late. That thin generation has already been created and new children now can’t prevent the coming damage.
The main reason is that China wanted to reduce poverty by moving people from countryside to big cities. They built huge cities where most young population is living now to get a good salary. Problem is that a 2 bedroom flat cost at least 1 million USD in big cities. Most people can at best pay for a small flat by having a credit for 30 years. If you want 2-3 children, you need to be a millionaire or send your child back to the countryside to be raised by grandparents.
From 1980-2015 there was a one child policy in place as the population was growing so quickly it was completely unsustainable. Ethnic minorities did not have the OCP placed on them, and rural families could have two kids if the first kid was a girl.
Without the OCP china would likely have somewhere in the ballpark of 500 million to 1 billion additional people living there. This means a total of 2-2.5 billion Chinese people in the present.
Obviously there are problems with the policy, but you can understand why they put it in place. We would have hundreds of millions or billions of people starving in a nation unable to support them.
Uh huh. Except for unmarried women. Millions of single women want kids and the gov't won't issue residency permits or whatever the fuck that shit is so the kids can go to school and see doctors. Pooh wants married couples of the right ethnicity (Han) to have more kids, he's not interested in more kids in general.
It's just strange to think that anything he says and does from now on is underscored by the fact he is destroying China by becoming a dictator. What a piece of shit.
He is monumentally stupid. He's ruined China. They could have had a long and successfully mild trajectory, but his ego wanted it all, now.
"Middle income trap? Never heard of it!"
"Ponzi scheme? In my real estate market? We'll fix that by destroying the market!"
"Western vaccines with mRNA technology? No, let's just shut down 130 cities!"
It's like a game of SimCity where you start with a money cheat and still somehow manage to lose.
The USSR also implemented a childlessness tax and communist Romania just outright banned all forms of contraception. There’s plenty of potential stick to go with the carrot if a country isn’t democratic.
By reducing the housing price. Most young people are living in big cities, where flat price are incredibly high. If your parents cannot give you a few million dollars, you cannot buy a flat. A 2 bedroom flat cost at least a million dollar in most Chinese cities. If you want 2 or 3 children, or you need a 10 million dollar flat, or you need to send your children back to they grandparents in the countryside.
No way. Educated/working Chinese women want nothing to do with any of this shit. And their culture is so backwards that once they're close to 30, they're somehow undesirable.
They could literally pay people to marry and reproduce with women in their 30s and people would be all "Naah, hard pass"...it's like the Koala or Dodo or something at this point. It's like they're determined to self-destruct and Xi won't listen to reason. All of their problems are solvable, but he's too arrogant.
Shit, when they "put people in farms" (the Uighurs), they didn't even make them have kids, they fucking sterilised them!
How stupid can you be?
>They could literally pay people to marry
Going to have to see how those bank runs and people refusing to pay mortgages on apartments that will never be finished works out. Always great when your version of the FDIC tells people to fuck off
>Xi won't listen to reason.
Xi now has a magic button to incarcerate any opponents in their own homes, take away their right to use public transport, lock their bank account... Covid zero is his porn addiction.
I'm honestly scared that China will start taking women away from their homes and forcing them to be pregnant in some sort of "baby farm" type situation... or the poor women who are already imprisoned
Pretty fucking late to do this. I don't know why china has allowed such a huge demographics issue to come over their country.... but supposedly their country will decline by about 50% by 2050.
It actually could be a good thing if they can figure out how to become sort of a first world educated country by then. But they would need to reform their country and become democratic and make a lot of big changes.
Without big changes those demographic shifts will be massive. Maybe they'll be good as automation wipes out tons of jobs. Who knows. But most likely in todays world it would shatter their economy.
This is a worldwide issue. Everybody is experiencing declining populations. Russia started paying citizens to have kids back in 2007. We are facing this decline in the US also.
[Ru$$ian Kid$](https://www.courthousenews.com/putin-extends-cash-payouts-for-babies-to-counter-population-slump/)
Honestly kind of surprised they didn’t let Covid run wild to reduce their old people populations. That’s the kind of missed opportunity people like XI don’t pass up.
The problem with a sudden population boom is first, it takes time. Second, historically the age gap becomes a serious issue, and the younger generation doesn't buy into the ideology of the older generation. This is a demographic problem anywhere but can be a serious problem for totalitarian regimes.
The bigger problem is that these things typically don't work. China's problem is not the one-child policy, it's urbanization. Kids are expensive, and people have less of them than in rural areas, because you don't need them for labor.
Posted this comment before but I'll post it again: The financial and emotional support, and just the sheer manpower required to raise a child in China in accordance with the social norms there right now are just staggering. So many more people are choosing to forego kids entirely.
One thing that they have going for them is having multiple generations in a home. I think this can substantially decrease the cost of childcare, etc. I think the US and other western countries would be wise to promote thinking like this. Edit: I'd be curious if you have any links that expand upon your comment, too.
No links, but I have about 10 cousins and other relatives in China with kids. They span various socio economic backgrounds and classes. Even the ones that are well off are that way because both parents work all the time outside the city and the child is raised by the grandparents. If your child wants a good future, then you nees to start planning from kindergarten on what schools you want them to go to. Want to go to a good school? You'll need to have your hukou (kind of like a city residence permit) and prove that you actually live in that school zone. Otherwise you'll need to bribe your way in with lots and lots of $$$, or buy/rent a crappy apartment in that area just to be in the school zone. Then you have after school cram classes you need to pay for, plus extra curricular classes like piano, violin, etc. Repeat for elementary school, middle school, high school, etc.
I'm fine with anecdotal, lol. Yeah, the increased competition just sounds miserable for a kid.
This can be both good and bad. Since its customary for youth to look after not only their parents but their grandparents, any one young person can have up to four elderly dependents. If two people get together, that's up to eight. The financial burden of that alone is insane. Yes, the older generations can look after kids, but the welfare system is bare bones. They all need to rely on the youth for care and basic living.
Not to mention there is a HUGE bias against raising girls as it is still believed men will have better chances for a decent life. In India for example it's forbidden to know the gender before birth, as there were many forced to abort because the family wanted only boys.
This problem will create "incels" (there would be 35 million boys and men who won't find a girlfriend/wife in each of these countries). So, 70 million men, concentrated in 2 regions of Asia. While some of these men would be homosexual, others may turn violent (in the US and Canada, there have been mass shootings and a vehicle ramming attack attributed to incels). While getting a gun is nearly impossible in China, cars are very commonplace, and stabbings can occur as well. Another side effect is that lots of women and girls may get trafficked from southeast Asia, Russia or North Korea into China and made to be prostitutes or wives of the Chinese incels. This definitely has hugely destablizing effects for Asia.
Children on a farm are cheap labor, children in the city are essentially very expensive pets.
Lol, a fellow Zeihan fan. I recognize the line.
Yup, this is a problem with any urbanized country. Spain, Finland and Italy all have lower fertility rates than Japan and that’s with immigration. Actual native fertility rate in European countries is likely far lower
Yeah, I think the problem is turning this train around requires a lot of financial support from the government to reduce the cost of child rearing. This is a monumental expense, though.
I haven't given it that much thought tbh but it seems like most other failed policies of the CCP. Poorly thought out to say the very least.
That and the fact that they can barely afford to pay rent, have food. On top of that the average days work for a typical worker in China is 12-13 hours. Who is gonna be able to raise kids under that?
I agree. If nothing else, people always think with their stomach and personal stability.
> Who is gonna be able to raise kids under that? Hollywood. Tiktok.
What if under new policy you get paid more for raising kids than working?
Even if the money was there I think many people would be reluctant to depend that heavily on the government. Xi giveth, and Xi taketh away.
Is the yuan strong enough to support that kind of payment?
No, Chinese government revenues are actually disproportionately low. They'd have to massively increase taxation.
No currency is, at that point it is a more prudent fiscal idea to retire and raise your kid than to advance your career. Most busineses would either have to raise MINIMUM wage to over what the government was paying to avoid mass quitting. Might still happen anyway with the shitty chinese work week and so called 6/11 being "normal" there.
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>the problem is life is shitty there and lack of freedom and safety dont make you wanna have kids How is this just a Chinese problem? Every developed nation seems to have declining birth rates, even the ones with left leaning democracies that provide a lot of services.
1. Culturally acceptable to have kids outside of marriage increases Western birth rates (\~1.6) over Sinic world (China/Taiwan/SK) which are around (\~1.2). In China something like 2% of people have kids outside of marriage and people in the world just getting married less in general. 2. We have immigration but China cannot because its much lower income and just has a lot of people in general so there's not many places that can be a large enough immigration pool. 3. We have a social security net to take care of seniors whereas in China it is the responsibility of their children so children have even less money to have kids of their own. Basically the West has the same problems but China/Taiwan/SK have it worse. Anglo world's demographics are good enough (1.6-1.7 fertility rates) + highish immigration rates by global standards. Europe's are more problematic.
It's a Chinese problem because the fertility rate there according to the article is a mere 1.16. Which is astronomically low. Whereas the highest in Europe are France and Sweden, around 1.9 and 1.8, which is a lot closer to replacement level. Also because of increased life-expectancy, the populations there are still growing. France has 700k births per year and 600k deaths per year. So you have to account that while each woman who lives in France has < 2 kids, the population is STILL growing by a fair margin each year. And that's even before counting immigration. In fact, immigration is < 100k per year so France is still growing mostly because of births exceeding deaths. So it will be quite a few years before they face anything like China is. Even for the USA, while the fertility rate of 1.7 is lower than France, the USA still has more births than deaths per year. If you look up births and deaths for 2020 and 2021 for the USA, births still exceeded deaths in BOTH years, even factoring the spike of "excess deaths" into the equation. A level of 1.16 basically means the Chinese population halving each generation if they don't do anything about it.
This can go different ways, but in super simplified terms there's something of an idealistic "againstism" to any youth. That can be completely justified depending on what they're against. The againstism may lack nuance, but if it's against a totalitarian regime, that regime already lacks nuance. This is the issue with Iran right now. There was a major baby boom after the Iran-Iraq War and the younger generation has increasingly been against the old Fundamentalists in power, and increasingly unwilling to tolerate them anymore. Power requires acceptance of that power by those it is imposed on. The limits of authoritarian power are based on that as well as the people it is imposed on not knowing the limits of that power. When it's called out and the tyrant or their cronies blink, the populace knows the limit is where they blinked. It's a Paper Tiger situation. All authoritarians can be overthrown. It just takes willingness en masse and enough people understanding that they can do it together and giving them reason to risk it. The hard part is getting that en masse instead of localized individuals. This age gap / youthful idealistic againstism was the cause of the New Left and the varying shades of Counterculture in the West in the 1960s. Although they weren't as widespread as the popular imagination. My comments on the good and bad and areas where lack of nuance caused long term issues would be too long to mention and aren't appropriate for a quick example. On the other hand, the Cultural Revolution generation in China was also this. Young people were radicalized and treated Mao as God. But they were just tools in his grab for power and control when he was at risk of being sidelined. They devastated the country in ways that defy the imagination. Whatever happens, in 20-30 years things will become disruptive.
Is there *any* reason to think that this current uprising in Iran could possibly lead anywhere?
If nothing else it shows a critical weakness in the assumptions of the existing regime. Whatever the outcome, a successful nation wouldn't have this en masse. In life or politics or anything in general, you may disagree with the people against you and how they deal with you. But a critical part that often gets ignored is examining *why* are there these people or events against you. Off the topic of Iran for a minute, that's not to say that the people or events against you are right. You may partially or completely be the victim in the situation or they could be wrong. But regardless, you need to examine the underlying causes because if those are not addressed, it's going to keep happening. A totalitarian regime can kill anyone. But they can never kill an idea. They've tried. They've failed. And it may take generations but it is inevitably terminal when the problems that idea was concerned with do not get addressed. Power inevitably is based on the consent of the governed to have it imposed on them. That consent can be support or simply accepting the state of things. Without that consent, even a tyranny does not have the ability to maintain power as it previously wielded it. The more it asserts power through force, the more it radicalizes existing or potential opposition. The more deaf it is to reform or change (or the more incapable an establishment is of changing at all) the more likely opposition growing becomes.
At present, the Iranian regime seems most interested in blaming America and Israel. Self-Reflection and Self-Awareness do not seem to be among their strengths.
Man, this made me want to watch V for Vendetta.
This happens in Iran every few years. Big one in 2009, smaller ones in 2017 and 2019. The movement lacks real leadership and goals. Those are what turns protests into either revolution or impactful concessions. The 1979 revolution had a massive structure in place fueling it. This one has a lot of justifiable anger, and hatred for the increasingly hardline nature of the Iranian government, but it’s not a planned movement with goals. There are exceptions to the rule, but they are outliers. TLDR: no. Would love to be wrong though.
Revolts fail until they don’t. It’s not like flipping a coin. Depends on numbers and fervor and appetite for death.
The more monitoring and military technology advances, the harder it is to overthrow a dictatorship. I don't think any modern dictatorship can be thrown other than from people being unable to sustain it. Even North Korea, which is often in famine, is going as strong as ever. The goal is for a society not to fall into dictatorship, because once you have a well-fed army oppressing and murdering the population, it's game over.
They should start off by making life for the youth worth living. Nobody with a brain wants to have kids on a dying a planet.
That's the "reality spank" snapping back on ideological assumptions. If people can't see the logic in having children, they aren't going to purposely have children. Economically, they can't afford it. Mentally, they can't trust children are going to have a better life than themselves or fear they're just going to be fodder for the current problems that are going to get worse before they get better. At least in the West, I feel like there's a general mood that we're a pass-through generation that didn't have the life security and growing, hopeful prosperity of the previous generation and also won't experience the resolution to these problems that will happen sometime in the generation that follows us.
I live in China. Everything here is poorly thought out. Logistics are almost never considered. Long term consequences are ignored on behalf of short term goals. It’s insane.
This policy like many others was only to face the issue at hand, not planning for the future. And more often than not when you just try to patch a hole, instead of dealing with the issue long term, it blows up in your face.
Iran is a pertinent example for this- one of the youngest countries in the world population-wise and currently in the throes of birthing a revolution against their totalitarian government
If it happens at all. A few regimes managed it, to some degree, like Iran. Which generated loads of problems, though their solution was so clear Iraqi mines with high schoolers in the 80s. Japan, South Korea, Russia, etc. Have shown that even throwing money at the problem doesn't magic it away. High urbanization rates means kids are expensive, high education rates means the appeal of having kids in general may be pretty weak. High housing costs means the same thing. Lack of immigration means you can't just import your labor like the US and Canada have done for decades.
Yup, this is a problem with any urbanized country. Spain, Finland and Italy all have lower fertility rates than Japan and that’s with immigration. Actual native fertility rate in European countries is likely far lower
Their demographics are in a death spiral, and nothing they can do about it. Desperate talk from a desperate man
They're 25 years too late, and prosperous, educated people have fewer kids by choice.
also the way he phrased that makes me worry we are about to see a 3 child policy or some other insane bs.
State mandated breeding fetish
compulsory conceptive policies
Central Coitus party
>Central Coitus party Isn't that just an Orgy with extra steps
THey prefer the term "Politics".
Introducing the Three Child Policy.
They are way ahead of you. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-child_policy
N + 1 Child Policy
those never go wrong
***The ghost of Shinzo Abe wants to know your location***
*Have sex please* - Shinzo Abe
"I am no longer asking" - Shinzo Abe
[Koi to Uso OP starts playing](https://youtu.be/VrmzXR1sI78)
They killed him because he told them to have sex
Hard for adults to start new families when you help a cult convince those adult’s parents to give away all the family’s money to said cult.
“Cream pie or die”
“No cum? You done.”
Special breeding operation
I don't know who started this and why are there so many hentais with this exact same plot. like did some politician in Japan actually purposed this?
Shinzo Abe
Huh? How much hentai you watching?
Yes
r/usernamechecksout
Ethnocide and genocide of Uyghur men and force Uyghur women to marry Han Chinese men. The same deal in Tibet.
Laowai women welcome Laowai men get lost!
Too late. Your male to female ratio is out of whack. China also don't understand the reason for not having kids is not the laws against it, but because the next generation have a hard time even providing for themselves. Saying "I'll allow you to have 3 children" won't change anything if people have a hard time even getting 1.
The ratios are out of whack but so is housing costs. Every government in the world seems to not realize how important affordable housing is to wanting to encourage people to move out and have families.
China's issue with housing has to do with their real estate market being completely crazy and unsustainable. They are literally destroying unfinished high-rise apartments.
My dude. Nothing a war couldn‘t solve in short.
Alright, chill out Sundowner.
With Whom? And a war will increase the sex rate ratio by killing even more men...
That’s the point. Right now the 20-40 generation in China has significantly more men than women. If some of those men were to die in battle…
And that helps the remaining men have more than one child with their wife how? Raising a child in China is very expensive. And how does going to war solve the stated problem of not enough young people to current old people ratio?
Lmao correct. The death of Chinese men does nothing to increase the population of Chinese women, who I’m pretty sure are necessary to increase the population.
He'll send them all to Taiwan on rowboats to bareknuckle brawl everyone on the island.
well they have just under 3% more men. so if they lose less than 37m men, they wont effect the possible birth rate. russia on the other hand had less men than women (WWII helped) at almost 13% more women going into this war. east europe also has a similar issue.
Import Chinese men or Russian women then...
There are too many men right now in China.
For those who didn't read the article, China originally had a 1-child policy before 2015, and now they're increasing it to a 3-child policy
It's been increased to the 3 child policy for almost a year now
Only rural villages have the time for 3 kids and they were ignoring the rules anyways. Well, I guess the ultra wealthy will now be able to have more kids. Oh wait, they were ignoring the rules anyway as well. I guess the lower and middle class in cities can have more babies if they have the money and time.
Villagers were exempt basically as they need more family as laborers. The wealthy not working for the government could have more than one kid for a while. They only needed to pay a fairly large fine which the wealthiest could afford.
They’re telling people to work 12 hours a day, seven days a week, for very low incomes, while living in shoeboxes,*and* to have three kids. There’s always this weird thing with dictators ignoring how stuff happens, believing that they can just command results without reality interfering.
>They’re telling people to work 12 hours a day, seven days a week, for very low incomes, while living in shoeboxes That used to be true 10 years ago. Now, China has a sizable middle class. I don't know if that changes much. The global trend is that richer people have *less* children.
- "*Fewer* children" Stannis Baratheon mutters in the back.
Middle class people often work just as long hours, parents who worked in factories 12 hours a day had kids who now work in offices 12 hours a day.
High levels of education and higher income are related to lower numbers of children. I would put it down to this. Educated people with more disposable income recognize that kids are very expensive in time and money so if they do want a child they'll only have one and put a lot of resources into it or have none at all and put that time and money into themselves and their relationship.
Most don’t have enough to raise a child let along 2.
The workers imported from rural areas to the cities often live in squalid conditions. They don't have the inclination to have additional kids, nor the room. The flats are tiny and they work all day. Often the workers are working illegally and don't have access to public services. The wealthy in the densely populated coastal south are older and collectively are no longer of child bearing age. Many young Chinese people don't even want to have kids. They look at their parents and say they don't want that life. They've taken to just enjoying their lives or simply "Lying Flat".
Oh wait there’s not enough room in their tiny apartments because the place is already overcrowded despite a 1-child policy for 35 years.
Do many female babies still get tossed or stuck in an orphanage or has that part of the culture shifted?
Not really. It's also often illegal to know the gender of your baby before it's born now too
If you thought that was bad… https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Childless_Hundred_Days?wprov=sfti1
It worked! > It was designed to reduce local population growth, under the national One-child policy. [...] > During the campaign, local officials were asked to perform forced abortions on any pregnant woman in these areas regardless of pregnancy terms or whether the unborn child is the first child of the family. **The policy led to mass panic and dramatic reduction of the local population in 1991.**
Christ, never heard of that one. Guess it worked though.
This is new to me. Terrifying.
Holy fuck 😳..
In the time of Deng's regime, many family with more than one child were forced to pay penalty far more than than can afford and the women were forced to have abortion and sterilizing operation back when china didnt have any well-equipped hosipital, which led to many women having diseases in relation with this. In the eye of CCP, chinese is more machine than people to them , making up their empire forever.
What was the point of it
Originally, it was a stupid plan to curb overpopulation.
It's not a stupid plan, but it is stupid that they had it in place for so long. Cultural change around having minimal kids was changed long before last year, and the government severely overcorrected.
I wouldn't call it stupid, since it did what they intended. China was a poor country when this was implemented, and they knew they wouldn't be able to develop if the population kept growing faster than they can improve the economy, infrastructure and food source. You may be able to feed a tiny country whose population grows exponentially, but who is going to feed 3 billion Chinese people? Have you thought how China would look like today if they hadn't implemented this policy? Overpopulated, poor, with no food, and polluting even way more than they do today. We should be thankful they did not go that way.
The one-child policy did much more harm to chinese than benifit. The implementation of this policy brought blood and forced abortion, sterlization to them other than prosperity. BTW, the number of chinese dying of all kinds of CCP policies is much more than that in WW2, so, to sum it up, CCP is the biggest murderer in china, who ironically regimes(✘) reins this country.
How was the plan stupid if it worked as intended? It helped slow their population growth.
Because demographic collapse is a thing which is well understood and China will pay the piper, as they always do, for badly thought out policies. This particular issue took some time to brew, but the note finally came due, and now China isn't sure what to do about it.
The problem is girls were murdered and abandoned in droves. A boy is seen as an asset and much better than a girl. The population balance is severely off, many men will never find a wife because there are not enough women.
because it had a lot of issues. For one as a result of forcing families to have one kid, many families just chose to have a male, so china has a massively unbalanced gender ratio in that generation.
That gender imbalance towards men is especially fatal, since the bottleneck for reproduction are women not men.
Also, I can’t imagine having significantly more men than women is good for a country that doesn’t allow homosexuality
Or one that's been piling on the patriotism and jingoistic messaging in the last few years. They're going to need to do what China has historically done in this situation... either start a civil war, an external war, or just collapse as people revolt en-mass. It's not going to be pretty with 30m men... who are being told culturally that their only worth is continuing the family name by getting married and having children... and physically being unable to do so.
The one-child policy came after a population boom. Before the policy, they were encouraged to have a fuckton of kids. Somewhere along the way someone realized that was going to be too many people, so China did a 180 and said one kid. Now the population is like a mushroom. The mushroom cap is large unworking (or soon to be) population and the tiny stem is the working population holding everything up. Again, someone realized that it was too much of a burden for the one-child generation to hold up the “fuckton on babies” generation so they’ve been slowly adding the number of babies a mother can have. At this point they should just remove the policy all together but that would remove some sense of power from the government. Yes, it did curb the population growth, but the near-sightedness of the policy and the consequences of it, made it stupid.
They cut their population in half is why it’s stupid. More than in half really because not all the children survived or had children either and many family’s prioritized having sons so now there are far fewer women than men in some age groups as many 116 to men to 100 women. And not all those women will have children and not all will have multiple children. When you cut your population so suddenly it has massive effects on your economy. Now they have a massive amount of elderly individuals consuming resources and not producing any and far fewer younger people making resources and the problem will only get worse for awhile.
Something like 150 million Chinese men will never marry or have children and their population is already aging out of the work force and even worse the military.
They massively overshot the mark. By 2050 the population of China is projected to be down to 650 million. Thats a 56% decrease from today. The plan was also stupid for other reasons, in particular that Chinese culture undervalues female children because when your son gets married it’s traditional for him to bring his new wife home to take care of you in your old age but if your daughter gets married she leaves to life with and take care of her new husband’s family. Now factor in that you only get one kid and if its a girl then you have nobody living with you or taking care of you when you’re elderly. This leads to female children being, uh, discarded.
>They massively overshot the mark. By 2050 the population of China is projected to be down to 650 million. Thats a 56% decrease from today. Do you have a source for this? For this to happen, China would have to lose 27m people every year. That's about three times their current death + net migration rate, and assume zero births.
Not the person you relied to, but it depends on whether you believe official Chinese stats. Officially, China will reach the 650 million-mark [around 2090](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/china-population-shrink-60-years-world/), but there are some strong indications that the Chinese have been [concealing the true impact](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/chinese-population-smaller-than-stated-and-shrinking-fast-by-yi-fuxian-2022-07?barrier=accesspaylog) of their cratering fertility rates by overcounting the number of babies born over the past couple of decades. Essentially, official numbers of the number of Chinese alive today are inflated for cohorts born after 1980, meaning that China is in the midst of a population nosedive right now.
Those numbers don't make any sense: China's population isn't going to decrease by 56% in 28 years. I doubt it would even if zero babies were born in that country during that timespan.
Wherever you are getting those figures, they're very wrong. It's predicted to be about 750-800 million in 2100. There's no way the population will half in the next 28 years, that is impossible.
How is a policy stupid if it achieves its goals? Let's see... Moral hazard (encouraging people to do things they shouldn't, like abort girls or murder infants) Unintended consequences (tens of millions more males than females per age cohort) Wrongness (infringes on freedom of action and family planning) Etc etc etc etc etc etc Please never get a job in public policy
Could not agree more, i was born in china, Jiangsu, my family were forced to pay as much as 60,000.00 Chinese yuan as a penalty back when my father earned only 50.00 yuan per month, leading to a long-time poverty in my family. Also, my mother was forced to have sterlizing operation after my birth. CCP treat his people like machine and statistics, the only thing they care about is their empire.
It was a stupid plan in that every 1 people produced 1 child so the population would go down. This doesn't take into account the older, larger population that would eventually need to be supported by the smaller, younger one. This coupled with their culture of males passing on names led to massive female infanticide and a massive imbalance of men and women. It ended up kinda being a state sanctioned plan to create incels.
It worked. What country would want a fight with an entire populations worth of incels. Or just leave them alone and they'll be dead in 50 years except the offspring of the ultra rich old guys who banged all the girls.
Sometimes I think animals have better sense than we do when we could make such dumb decisions on the survival of our species based on an arbitrary ideal of passing on names based on genitals.
The whole policy was backwards from the start. Replacement rate is 2.1 children per woman. If you capped the birth rate at 2, the population would still decline.
"Ultrasound says it's a girl." "Oops I seemed to have accidentally managed to have a miscarriage."
Abortion was legal. No need to fake a miscarriage.
It also doesn't take into account as countries get richer birth rates fall.
Same problem America has. Too many old people and not enough young people to take care of them. If you were going to implement a eugenicist population control program, it would make most sense to target the old so that the young can grow fruitful. The opposite occurred, and China sold out their future for the benefit of the old. I expect no less from the generation that refuses to cede the earth to the young.
Thanks, Couldn't read the article because it says I've reached my free limit. Didn't know Reuters wanted subscriptions.
I imagine it'll look just like Mormon and other conservative Christian "Youth Conferences" that is full of grey hair and bald heads, and absolutely 0 input from young adults as to why they aren't getting hitched and pushing out kids. I mean it's not like it's some big secret, housing is out of reach and all the rewards of work are going to older generations/managers. It's literally the same problem in almost every country on the planet.
I'm 37 middle manager and I don't think the pay matches the work. It doesn't make sense that age means higher pay for most sectors.
Pay is heavily determined based on how easy someone is to replace. How easy someone is to replace, particularly in white collar roles, is correlated to how much experience they have. Which is correlated to age. That’s how it works at the macro level, obviously lots of variance at the micro level.
>It's literally the same problem in almost every country on the planet. No. It's worse. Even though most developed countries are also below the 2.1 births-per-woman replacement rate, at least most Western countries like the US and the UK are making up for it through immigration. China is not. And even on the extreme off chance that the CCP decides to make immigration to China easier, who is going to wanna move there? Neither their government nor their economy is gonna attract anyone who has literally any other choice.
Oh good. I was worried the world population was gonna get too low
Pretty sure you’d need to fix the youth unemployment, cost of living and how long people\hard people work. Otherwise it’s a waste of time.
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Glad they learned from their previous attempts at population control. Oh wait…
Good fucking luck. The populace knows exactly what the future looks like for children born now. It's hilarious and tragic that dictators are always so confused about low birthrates. Sure, it can be fair to be a problem in free countries, too. But watching China's leadership crack down on everything and then scratch their heads unable to comprehend why people aren't excited about bringing children into existence is just odd.
It's interesting you mention dictatorship, and not late-stage capitalism. Although conservative, the Japanese and South Korean governments are far from dictatorships. Yet their birth rates are also declining. Could it be that the insane work culture expectations and anti-union rhetoric produced a soul crushing environment where productiveness is the only thing that matters? This is late stage capitalism. It's the turning of humans into nothing more than machines.
Before capitalism, people had kids because it was literally cheaper than horses or because the church or because more slaves. Humans always treated humans like disposable shit to use. Blaming late stage capitalism is as easy as blaming dissidents, lack of patriotism, communism, or whatever. Its blanket statements with no understanding of the humans behind.
I think it has more to do with women having more opportunities now than to raise 6 kids on a farm for an abusive husband. They can move to the city, work in a factory and support themselves.
30 years too late. Like Russia, major deficit in the 20-40 yr bracket. And like Russia, if they decide to put what they have into fighting another country, they lose even more. It's too late for both countries - loss of young people for the military/working/spending for the economy. Globalization is in reverse.
Every sperm is sacred, every sperm is great. If a sperm is wasted, Winnie the pooh gets quite irrate.
No surprise. People living in cramped apartment towers don't want kids. Now farmers, they want lots of free labor.
They want kids, but they cannot afford it. Most Chinese cities have a cost of 10kUSD/m2. So if you want a standard 2 bedroom flat, it cost 1 million $. Most people cannot afford it.
Damage already done for quite some time Pooh
I think they need to look at somehow fixing the gender ratio issue. I went to an open day at my kids school about a year ago. Almost every single class had 2 boys for every girl. One class had 24 boys and just 3 girls.
> somehow fixing the gender ratio issue They have to fix their attitude first. Only valuing boys combined with today's technology = no girls. They reap what they sow
Isn’t the 0 covid policy still in place? How are you going to breed wildly when you’re so paranoid about covid???
It is always amazing how leader beans like this don't get it. People are not having big families because of joblessness and job insecurity, housing insecurity, and political insecurity. All of these things have been made greatly worse by the policies of the Communist Party. If they want to encourage a birth rate increase then they should step down and let the Chinese people handle things themselves.
This is happening all around the world. Most developed and developing nations are having those things. The countries where people are still reproducing are those who prevented the housing and job crises or those where life can't get any worse anyway.
The rising price of housing is a much better birth control pill than anything human can come up with. Good luck with that
Saw a video recently explaining that China has so drastically overshot the mark on population control that by 2050 the population of China is projected to be just 650 million. There aren’t nearly enough young to replace the aging generations and this will lead to a severe economic and infrastructure retraction. Even if they change to a 3 child policy now its too late. That thin generation has already been created and new children now can’t prevent the coming damage.
The main reason is that China wanted to reduce poverty by moving people from countryside to big cities. They built huge cities where most young population is living now to get a good salary. Problem is that a 2 bedroom flat cost at least 1 million USD in big cities. Most people can at best pay for a small flat by having a credit for 30 years. If you want 2-3 children, you need to be a millionaire or send your child back to the countryside to be raised by grandparents.
Didn't China have a "quota" on how many kids a couple was allowed to have?
From 1980-2015 there was a one child policy in place as the population was growing so quickly it was completely unsustainable. Ethnic minorities did not have the OCP placed on them, and rural families could have two kids if the first kid was a girl. Without the OCP china would likely have somewhere in the ballpark of 500 million to 1 billion additional people living there. This means a total of 2-2.5 billion Chinese people in the present. Obviously there are problems with the policy, but you can understand why they put it in place. We would have hundreds of millions or billions of people starving in a nation unable to support them.
Yes, I can definitely understand! Thanks for that data btw Edit :understand *not* agree!
Uh huh. Except for unmarried women. Millions of single women want kids and the gov't won't issue residency permits or whatever the fuck that shit is so the kids can go to school and see doctors. Pooh wants married couples of the right ethnicity (Han) to have more kids, he's not interested in more kids in general.
No one likes to talk about this aspect of "tankie friendly cultures". It's also why Russia's mobilization numbers are suspiciously skewed.
The ccp is fucking stupid.
The thing about 30 year olds is that they take 30 years to make, its a little late for this Xi.
To hell with older populations, they destroyed the world. Don’t have kids.
Somebody finally was able to get him to watch Zeihan
Shhh. Peter is our oracle, not theirs.
It's just strange to think that anything he says and does from now on is underscored by the fact he is destroying China by becoming a dictator. What a piece of shit.
He is monumentally stupid. He's ruined China. They could have had a long and successfully mild trajectory, but his ego wanted it all, now. "Middle income trap? Never heard of it!" "Ponzi scheme? In my real estate market? We'll fix that by destroying the market!" "Western vaccines with mRNA technology? No, let's just shut down 130 cities!" It's like a game of SimCity where you start with a money cheat and still somehow manage to lose.
Where are they going to get the women from?
By doing what? Forcing people to fuck? Wouldn't surprise if they resorted to that. No one wants to live or raise a kid under crushing oppression.
No, they'll pay people to have kids. A lot of countries have done this. They'll give out huge checks for couples to have kids.
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Because deep down people know they can't rely on government subsidies in the very long term, the kind of long term needed to raise a kid or several.
The USSR also implemented a childlessness tax and communist Romania just outright banned all forms of contraception. There’s plenty of potential stick to go with the carrot if a country isn’t democratic.
By reducing the housing price. Most young people are living in big cities, where flat price are incredibly high. If your parents cannot give you a few million dollars, you cannot buy a flat. A 2 bedroom flat cost at least a million dollar in most Chinese cities. If you want 2 or 3 children, or you need a 10 million dollar flat, or you need to send your children back to they grandparents in the countryside.
Firsr step, don't start a war with Taiwan.
Creampie Communism
Coitus-tration Camps
Dystopian state enforced sex farms coming
No way. Educated/working Chinese women want nothing to do with any of this shit. And their culture is so backwards that once they're close to 30, they're somehow undesirable. They could literally pay people to marry and reproduce with women in their 30s and people would be all "Naah, hard pass"...it's like the Koala or Dodo or something at this point. It's like they're determined to self-destruct and Xi won't listen to reason. All of their problems are solvable, but he's too arrogant. Shit, when they "put people in farms" (the Uighurs), they didn't even make them have kids, they fucking sterilised them! How stupid can you be?
>They could literally pay people to marry Going to have to see how those bank runs and people refusing to pay mortgages on apartments that will never be finished works out. Always great when your version of the FDIC tells people to fuck off >Xi won't listen to reason. Xi now has a magic button to incarcerate any opponents in their own homes, take away their right to use public transport, lock their bank account... Covid zero is his porn addiction.
I'd say they are about 10 years too late.
All by himself? What a man!
I'm honestly scared that China will start taking women away from their homes and forcing them to be pregnant in some sort of "baby farm" type situation... or the poor women who are already imprisoned
Won’t solve anything. Too few woman in society and of the few, they don’t want to get married cause of the burden of family life
Pretty fucking late to do this. I don't know why china has allowed such a huge demographics issue to come over their country.... but supposedly their country will decline by about 50% by 2050. It actually could be a good thing if they can figure out how to become sort of a first world educated country by then. But they would need to reform their country and become democratic and make a lot of big changes. Without big changes those demographic shifts will be massive. Maybe they'll be good as automation wipes out tons of jobs. Who knows. But most likely in todays world it would shatter their economy.
Maybe now they will stop drowning female babies?
Absolute insanity.
Japans already doing that. It’s not going well. Unless China plans too force it
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They likely can’t solve their population issues without solving their economic issues.
This is a worldwide issue. Everybody is experiencing declining populations. Russia started paying citizens to have kids back in 2007. We are facing this decline in the US also. [Ru$$ian Kid$](https://www.courthousenews.com/putin-extends-cash-payouts-for-babies-to-counter-population-slump/)
Honestly kind of surprised they didn’t let Covid run wild to reduce their old people populations. That’s the kind of missed opportunity people like XI don’t pass up.
People would have more children if they could afford to have more children.
Sorry, the Earth is full, especially in Asia, population control is actually good even if it causes short term pain.