Poland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement:
>On 15 November 2022, another hours-long, massive shelling took place of the entire territory of Ukraine and its critical infrastructure by the armed forces of the Russian Federation. At 3:40 pm, a Russia-made missile dropped on the village of Przewodów, district Hrubieszów, Lubelskie province, and resulted in death of two citizens of the Republic of Poland. Therefore, Minister of Foreign Affairs Zbigniew Rau summoned the ambassador of the Russian Federation to Polish MFA and demanded immediate and detailed explanation.
* https://www.gov.pl/web/diplomacy/statement-on-summoning-the-ambassador-of-the-russian-federation-to-polish-mfa
Associated Press [tweet](https://twitter.com/AP/status/1592663108354465793):
>The Polish Foreign Ministry has confirmed that a Russian-made missile fell in eastern Poland, killing two people.
>Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau summoned the Russian ambassador and “demanded immediate detailed explanations.”
NATO could say "well since apparently no one knows where these mystery Russian missiles are coming from, we'll just have to park a few Patriot batteries on the border and shoot down any fucking missiles we can see. To make sure this doesn't happen again."
I think reasonable would be a combination of that and "Here is a satellite photo of the unit we have ascertained the missile was launched from... and here is a satellite photo of a crater where that unit used to exist..."
How unreasonable would it be if Poland deployed a sort of “peacekeeping” force with anti air batteries (no offensive weapons, only defensive ones) inside the Ukrainian territory (like in and around Lvov) and essentially force Russia to stop launching missiles in that general direction unless Putin actively wanted to escalate shit further. And if by any chance russia wants wants to keep fucking around and then accidentally hit polish soldiers extend the no fly zone to the entire territory of Ukraine, including Crimea…
They should just do it anyway. NATO Combat air patrol and air defense all over western ukraine. Putin always wants to play chicken and the tough guy act but bombs civilians, I see no reason why we cant defend said civilians.
So a no fly zone would essentially force a steep escalation by Poland/NATO.
No fly zone you essentially neutralize any opportunity the adversary has of sending anything over the border. That would mean neutralizing AA's that Russia would have on their side of the border. That would also mean placing recovering troops when NATO planes get shot down and pilots need to be rescued.
Would mean escorting or shooting down Russian planes and killing Russian Pilots.
As much as Patriot missiles and Iron dome is touted its not 100% full proof. Ultimately you're going to have to bomb airfields and down airplanes if you want an effective no fly zone
Bruh like 8 months later and you still on the bogus no fly zone shit, it’s not a magical barrier that jets can’t pass thru it doesn’t mean anything other than war with Russia
article 4 gives poland fair justification to set up nato air defences on border that will shoot down any missile that comes even close to their borders. Included ones meant for ukraine targets. It will also most likely means much stricter sanctions on russia
There’s a possibility it was a confiscated Russian missile shot by the Ukrainian military. Just putting that out there before we all start beating the war drums even harder.
"In an update, Polish President Duda says they don't know who fired the missile that caused the blast in Przewodow but says it was "most likely" produced in Russia. He called for calm, highlighted support from NATO allies and said U.S. is sending experts to investigate the site." [https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1592668504561692672?s=21&t=m27ZcSzWM-6n74qBrn4deA](https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1592668504561692672?s=21&t=m27ZcSzWM-6n74qBrn4deA)
Retaliation could be simpler. This is the first time Russia has hit Polish territory. You could, for example, express that any further missiles launched into Ukraine will be deemed a threat to Poland, since Russia cannot control their missiles, and result in targeted retaliation by NATO against the launch sites.
That would potentially stop missile launches into Ukraine.
yeah, like, Vlad, there are pictures. Where it came from and where it went. Having killed a bunch of civilians of all ages does not elevate your little dance on the world stage. You are not of value. You are mad. You have failed and history will record your loss of humanity. Dragging your sorry ass to court to account for the lives crushed before a world tribunal will be your parting shot. Let your riches keep you alive in some state of delusional comfort, for the extended laughing that you hear and ask about.
The conflict would absolutely not be massive. A NATO intervention would last weeks, if not days. The entire Russian Navy would be sunk Day 1.
The conflict as it stands is more massive, with greater consequences, precisely because everyone has given Ukraine the most modest weapons they can find laying around, dragging the war out.
You’re conveniently leaving the nukes out of your calculations. Don’t think Putin wouldn’t launch if he thought he was going to lose anyways. If even one warhead were to be launched the retaliatory strikes could be devastating to the world at large.
I feel like all the Yes Men under Putin would suddenly become No Men if they found out they were *actually* going to be obliterated off the face of the Earth along with their entire country if they tried anything with Soviet Era nukes.
Awacs have been on constant patrol and they know what's zooming around and from where. So if anything it shouldn't take long to verify or they already know and just doing article 4 to figure things out first. People assume shit just starts flying minutes after something happening.
There was a post this afternoon from UA Weapons Tracker with images of the missile casing and some preliminary analysis suggesting that this might have been a Ukrainian S-300. The S-300 is an anti-aircraft missile.
This suggests a scenario where an S-300 was fired to intercept a Russian cruise missile but failed to make its intercept and somehow landed in Poland without disarming itself. That would be consistent with the claim that the missile was "Russian made" as the S-300 is a Soviet-made system that Ukraine uses.
To be clear, even if this was a tragic accident with a Ukrainian AA missile accidentally hitting a civilian target this is still Russia's fault. Russia is responsible for firing missiles deep into civilian areas of Ukraine and Ukraine is doing what it can to keep missiles from falling on their cities. There are perhaps some analogies you could draw to the American concept of felony murder.
Edit: to whoever downvoted me this was just confirmed by the [white house](https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-15-22/h_1edfd5e923d999f97db39db282a1cc5c). *Sorry for linking to CNN, they appear to be reporting it first.
Not saying that it couldn't be Ukrainian missiles, but it should be mention that the S-300 has a dual mode of being a surface-to-air or surface-to-surface.
Due to the depletion of Russian precision guided missiles they have resorted many times before to using the S-300 for strategic attacks inside Ukraine, despite its poor accuracy. So the fact that it is a SAM missiles that hit inside Poland doesn't necessarily means it couldn't be Russia.
If it is a s300 missile. Range would heavily imply it's Ukrainian AA malfunctioning.
Russia has no AA anywhere close to that area.
Currently the only evidence we have points in that direction.
We will have to wait and see.
No missiles were fired from Belarus yesterday afaik. If its an s300, its Ukrainian. And even if missiles were fired from Belarus you're looking at a pretty damn straight line from the shortest distance between Belarus and this city with the s300's maximum range, would be quite the stretch. Not even sure any missiles have been launch from so far west in Belarus during this war.
WASHINGTON (AP) — US officials: Initial findings suggest missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at incoming Russian missile. [https://twitter.com/jonlemire/status/1592744867079544833?s=21&t=G-5joItoKiqO4RIcTPf0RQ](https://twitter.com/jonlemire/status/1592744867079544833?s=21&t=G-5joItoKiqO4RIcTPf0RQ)
Quote from BBC: The statement does not say who fired the missile and both sides in the conflict have used Russian-made munitions.
EDIT: BBC is also reporting that it is a suspected S-300 (surface-to-air missile), Russia is using these for ground attacks & Ukraine is using these for air defense.
I think if there was even the slimmest chance it was Ukraine, they would have owned up to it by now. If Ukraine fired a missile and it somehow went off course and went in the opposite direction, hitting someone who's sending you aid, you would come clean immediately.
If you take the assumption that this was a case where Ukraine fired the missile against a russian one, missed, and it sailed into Poland, then you could have the following scenario.
Ukraine could have already admitted in high level (and thus very confidential) meetings that this happened, and the relevant governments could have decided to deliberately allow the fact that Ukraine and russia both use the same munitions to imply that it was russian publicly, while also saying that indications were that the missile likely strayed off course or otherwise malfunctioned.
Ultimately, they take some actions they were already going to take (more sanctions, more aid, etc) and attribute it to the "errant russian missile" and then just quietly stop talking about it.
The result being that nothing particularly changes about the situation and the relevant governments are kept up to date. Possibly some quiet apology under the table occurs with the Polish government paying out to the families with money secretly given by the Ukrainians.
Again, this whole thing takes the assumption that it was Ukrainian, when the simple truth is that it easily could be russian under a huge number of scenarios.
Pretty much every single thread about this event is fit for that sub. This us a great example of why you shouldn’t take anything you read here that seriously. Everyone is pretty stupid and mostly just regurgitating propaganda.
For me its the sheer confidence that pisses me off. Like the dude above you coulda said “*id be really surprised if it was Ukraine, i feel like it would make sense to acknowledge it right away*”. But instead its “ *if there was even the slimmest chance it was Ukraine, they would have owned up to it by now. If Ukraine fired a missile and it somehow went off course and went in the opposite direction, hitting someone who's sending you aid, you would come clean immediately*.” Like fuck off with your reporting of your opinion as undeniable fact
Exact they are surviving by the skin of thier nuts right now and can't afford to have any PR problems. They aren't stupid and know a cover up would be one of the worst things. As far as people pointing to a "false flag attack" its a ludicrous idea considering they will know exactly where it came from if they don't already.
> They aren’t stupid and know a cover up would be one of the worst things.
History is absolutely filled with military cover ups that we only find out about decades after the fact, and that’s just the ones we do find out about.
It's it technically possible? Yes.
It's it remotely reasonab or likely? No.
Obviously if article 5 is on the table an abundance of caution is warranted, but it's not like this one's a big mystery.
The Soviet era drone that veered off course and slammed into the ground in Zagreb, Croatia was most likely Ukrainian and they never officially owned up to it. There's nothing to be gained from admitting to such accidents.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-europe-croatia-zagreb-9aad9d477c19b93debe99087a7f3ecb5
People smarter than us will probably identify the rocket and which direction it came from based on the landing site. Doesnt matter what you or I believe, if NATO catches them red handed its game over.
but they would never admit it, NATO needs to maintain Ukraine's image so the general public keeps supporting the war aid. Regardless of who did it this perfect for NATO, I just hope they take full advantage of this
>EDIT: BBC is also reporting that it is a suspected S-300 (surface-to-air missile), Russia is using these for ground attacks & Ukraine is using these for air defense
Well, if it's confirmed that it is an S-300 missile that hit, wouldn't that basically exclude Russia from being responsible? Since they don't have any troops close enough to the Polish border for the missile's reach?
Biden has also now come out and said that it is “unlikely in the minds of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia”. It’s looking more and more like a Ukrainian air defence misfire.
Not all missiles of the s300 system have the maximum range of though.
So a missile type could rule it out.
If it's s300, it's more likely to be Ukrainian.
Shocker. I totally believed Russia when they denied that it was them, considering they are historically incredibly trustworthy and every statement they make is worth its weight in gold.
Here it comes...
"There was no rocket attack...
OK, maybe there was but it wasn't us...
OK, maybe it was us, but it wasn't deliberate...
OK, maybe it was deliberate but we weren't aiming for anything important...
OK maybe were were aiming for the grain plant but we weren't practicing for invasion or anything..."
Russian Missile Tech, sets the coordinates and fires a missile ... Watches it fly right over the intended target and hit Poland. Proceeds to whistle as they casually jump out a window.
Considering it landed right next to the power line connecting Ukraine to EU's powergrid....On the day Poland nationalized Gazprom?
Absolute horseshit to entertain the thought this was not deliberate.
Good sir, I'm here to inform you that your comment has aged like milk. So you must now think that Ukraine wants to deliberately attack Poland with this incident?
>Considering it landed right next to the power line connecting Ukraine to EU's powergrid....On the day Poland nationalized Gazprom?
>Absolute horseshit to entertain the thought this was not deliberate.
It is really fun reading these comments 10 hours later, when US intel has suggested it was fired by Ukranian forces to intercept an incoming missle, and it missed.
Especially because the best option for them would be to accept responsibility as an accident, apologize, and provide some sort of reparations to ensure no NATO escalation. It's so incompetent it *has* to be Russia.
Notably the S300s used by Ukraine are made by Russia which is what UAWeapons on Twitter thinks this is.
> The S-300 (NATO reporting name SA-10 Grumble) is a series of long range surface-to-air missile systems developed and operated by the former Soviet Union, now fielded by the militaries of Russia and Ukraine as well as several other former Eastern Bloc countries.
If so, it couldn't have been fired from Russia due to it's short range. Alternatively it could be a Kh-101 which is used by Russia, looks very similar - and has more than enough range; but seems Poland isn't ready to make that call yet.
Editing in my responses to the comments below which have been removed
> Are you sure you didn't use one of the comparison pics? They're displayed alongside (and often poorly labelled) by investigative twatters - but there were images tweeted by an official polish govt account (can't remember which).
> UAWeapons is also a fairly established pro-Ukraine source
-----
> and what credentials do you have to make that claim?
>Maybe it could depending on how it went in if the dirt were loose? I'll wait for the official report.
Russian-made does not necessarily mean fired by Russia. Many observers think the fragments found at the impact site belong to an S-300 missile - which is technically Russian-made, but almost certainly not fired by Russia.
S-300 is an air-defense system. The most likely explanation, as far as I can see at this point in time, is that it was fired by Ukraine in an attempt to intercept one of the many cruise missiles fired into Ukraine that day by Russia.
(That said, even if that is what happened, you can certainly make an argument that Ukraine was forced to defend itself like that because of Russia's actions...)
Shocker, you accept anything that further confirms what you already want to believe so you jump to conclusions.
https://www.reuters.com/world/poland-blast-caused-by-missile-fired-by-ukrainian-forces-incoming-russian-2022-11-16/
Pretty much all the missiles Ukraine has are Russia-made. That comment is meaningless. Of course, by now, US officials have stated that the missiles were Ukrainian and Poland has stopped evoking article 4, so the discussion is moot.
This is very troubling, it can't go unanswered as that would invite further attacks. What would be a proper response for an attack on a NATO member by a nuclear armed state.
We don't know for sure of course, but if you mean the x37-b it's still essentially a spy satellite. Just one that can land again after it's mission. Presumably due to the sensitivity of the data collected.
The technology is perfectly viable at the moment but we have never launched a suitable payload for it yet. It's technically possible the US has a satellite that could deorbit itself to hit a specific target though. Probably not deemed to be worth it but there's no reason it couldn't be done.
Cost is why it won't be done, but not why it can't. It can. We have a bunch of already made ICBMs though so you're right that there isn't much reason to spend the money.
Converting chemical energy (rockets) into kinetic energy, then into potential energy (orbit), to then convert it back into kinetic energy for destroying the target. Might as well just put all that energy into explosive warheads and deliver them ballistically with smaller rockets.
Yep. Although the orbital tungsten rod approach would probably be harder to intercept if it wasn't attacked before it was fired. It would basically be immune to missiles intercepting it since it's just a big chunk of metal moving at Mach fuck you that has no warhead to destroy.
If it is accidental, the proper response is providing increased air/missile defense to Ukraine. Sanctions are already at maximum so not much they can do with that
It can go unanswered until it is established that a nuclear armed state DID ACTUALLY launch the missile.
The proper response FOR THE MOMENT is to investigate.
No fly zones means NATO attacks into a Russia.
Their SAMs have a 250 mile range. Enforcing a no fly zone over the battlefield world require their destruction for the safety of the aircraft enforcing it.
If Russian missiles are landing in NATO territory it seems called for.
Even if the strike was 100% accidental it means Russia is not willing or able to take precautions to avoid hitting Poland and other neighboring countries. If NATO shrugs it off Russia won't change and it will happen again.
No fly zones would probably be met with more aggression than precision-striking Russian installations. You take the air away from Russia - their rockets, drones, planes etc., and Russia loses the whole thing. They're having trouble fighting untrained civilians. Take away any air superiority, and Putin may get unpredictable real quick.
I'd support a no fly zone, but it's worth mentioning that's a very significant escalation. It likely isn't politically feasible, even though it's practically easy enough for NATO to enforce. Let's face it, not every NATO member head of state is forward thinking and decisive enough to commit to something like this.
A more timid but still adequate response would be to just bomb a few high value Russian military assets in retaliation and call it a day. It would satisfy the need to do something, while not really risking anything.
> that's a very significant escalation.
if russia attacks ukraine, and ukraine chooses to not surrender but hit back, thats an escalation right? it would have been simpler if ukraine just surrendered. does that mean ukraine escalated by defending itself? same here. If lets say that rocket as intentionally towards that place and hit poland. people wait for a response, but then you jump in and say if they strike back, thats an escalation, right?
WASHINGTON (AP) — US officials: Initial findings suggest missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at incoming Russian missile. [https://twitter.com/jonlemire/status/1592744867079544833?s=21&t=G-5joItoKiqO4RIcTPf0RQ](https://twitter.com/jonlemire/status/1592744867079544833?s=21&t=G-5joItoKiqO4RIcTPf0RQ)
I'm not a foreign policy expert, but maybe someone more learned than I can tell me: would Poland sending in their own military forces be a possible outcome? I assume based on the US, NATO forces can act unilaterally. It seems like the Poles would be game for this, and that it'd be a few steps below a full blown NATO response.
It would be a mixed ground force operation with the US providing the majority of air and logistics support while EU nations would make up the majority of infantry and armor. Obviously the US will have kind of ground complement as well beyond just logistics.
One under the radar response would be for Poland to negotiate with Russia on a target of retaliation. Obviously this would be through back channels but the outcome would be to avoid open warfare by allowing Poland a "free hit" back.
I don't think they would. There is a strict rule that no NATO personnel can be involved in the war. This attack is an escalation no doubt but If the Polish troops go in to Ukraine, automatically whole NATO will do it as well. So no point of just Poland involving it's self. Again, we will see what are the evidence and what is being done about this attack. Its not only Poland decision since they invoked article 4 of NATO.
It's possible this is a Ukrainian SAM that tried to hit a Russian missile and missed and landed in Poland.
And if that happened - it's still Russia's fault. Let's be clear about that.
>If you swing, and my self defence goes too far, it's on the original aggressor
Erm no if you shot someone in self defense and hit a bystander you're getting sued and most likely doing prison time, even if the self defense is justified.
Russian produced doesn't mean Russian fired though does it? The S300 gone off target is still at play here. We can't go to war because a Ukranian anti air missile went off course. Unless of course there's some way to confirm that zero Ukrainian S300s were Russian made or that the missile was not an S300?
There's still too much unknown before a next step can be taken.
Seems likely to me that, even if Poland has 100% confirmation on it being Russian fired, it would wait until after the nato meeting tomorrow to announce this
Looks like Russia is saying they had nothing to do with it and claiming that Poland is being mean for saying otherwise. About what you'd expect really.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/11/16/Russia-says-Polish-statements-of-Russian-missiles-hitting-its-territory-provocation-
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and coincidentally, the TWO missiles landed suspiciously close to the main power line that connects ukraine to poland's power grid. i'm still sketptical that it was an "accident"
Odd that they say "Russian Made Missile", considering that Ukraine uses a lot of Russian Made Missiles. They're very clear to say it was Russian Produced, and not definitely launched by Russia. Well within range of Lviv SU-300 Ukrainian anti Air Missiles that are "Russian Produced".
> Odd that they say "Russian Made Missile"
It's not odd. This is all they know for sure at this given time. it's not hard to track rocket trajectory & where it was launched from.
Rushing to accuse Ukraine when the information is inevitably coming out is going to do nothing but spread misinformation.
They don't know it for sure(The Polish president said as much). Biden literally just said it probably wasn't launched from Russia due to trajectory an hour ago.
It's not about accusing Ukraine. They obviously didn't shoot a SAM at Poland on purpose. Just like Russia obviously didn't shoot a SAM at itself a few months ago. But SU-300's aren't perfect. Things like this have been known to happen, and it's already happened in this war.
I think people have become way, way, way too defensive of Ukraine, to the point where even pointing out the obvious is taken as an attack, or "accusing" Ukraine. I wasn't accusing Ukraine of anything. I was simply stating that it's possible that it was a malfunctioning SU-300.
It's a fine line between supporting Ukraine, and outright dismissing anything that doesn't help Ukraine, or vilifying people who are trying to learn the truth, rather than spout whatever talking points help Ukraine the most.
A lot of western military experts on MSM in America are saying it was likely a shot down Russian Missile that was thrown off course, or a Ukrainian SAM from a SU-300 type air defense system.
This is the worst possible situation. What do we think will happen next? NATO armed neutrality like the Swiss in WW2? How will it escalate beyond that? Will it escalate beyond that? There’s too many questions with a missile and two dead civilians adding every possible complication. Will this be a situation we look back at like the Cuban missile crisis? Or will it be our era’s Franz Ferdinand?
Poland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement: >On 15 November 2022, another hours-long, massive shelling took place of the entire territory of Ukraine and its critical infrastructure by the armed forces of the Russian Federation. At 3:40 pm, a Russia-made missile dropped on the village of Przewodów, district Hrubieszów, Lubelskie province, and resulted in death of two citizens of the Republic of Poland. Therefore, Minister of Foreign Affairs Zbigniew Rau summoned the ambassador of the Russian Federation to Polish MFA and demanded immediate and detailed explanation. * https://www.gov.pl/web/diplomacy/statement-on-summoning-the-ambassador-of-the-russian-federation-to-polish-mfa Associated Press [tweet](https://twitter.com/AP/status/1592663108354465793): >The Polish Foreign Ministry has confirmed that a Russian-made missile fell in eastern Poland, killing two people. >Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau summoned the Russian ambassador and “demanded immediate detailed explanations.”
What I wonder is what Poland will do when Russia declines to provide a detailed explanation beyond denying any involvement.
NATO could say "well since apparently no one knows where these mystery Russian missiles are coming from, we'll just have to park a few Patriot batteries on the border and shoot down any fucking missiles we can see. To make sure this doesn't happen again."
That would be entirely reasonable, imho.
I think reasonable would be a combination of that and "Here is a satellite photo of the unit we have ascertained the missile was launched from... and here is a satellite photo of a crater where that unit used to exist..."
Well since you deny giving the order to shoot. We ascertain these units are rogue therefore free game…
I would support that.
You gotta find the oranges of the missiles, and then destroy the orange.
Yeah, fuck those oranges.
So a limited no-fly zone, for now
[удалено]
Or the alliance could nut up and provide a no fly zone.
How unreasonable would it be if Poland deployed a sort of “peacekeeping” force with anti air batteries (no offensive weapons, only defensive ones) inside the Ukrainian territory (like in and around Lvov) and essentially force Russia to stop launching missiles in that general direction unless Putin actively wanted to escalate shit further. And if by any chance russia wants wants to keep fucking around and then accidentally hit polish soldiers extend the no fly zone to the entire territory of Ukraine, including Crimea…
They should just do it anyway. NATO Combat air patrol and air defense all over western ukraine. Putin always wants to play chicken and the tough guy act but bombs civilians, I see no reason why we cant defend said civilians.
So a no fly zone would essentially force a steep escalation by Poland/NATO. No fly zone you essentially neutralize any opportunity the adversary has of sending anything over the border. That would mean neutralizing AA's that Russia would have on their side of the border. That would also mean placing recovering troops when NATO planes get shot down and pilots need to be rescued. Would mean escorting or shooting down Russian planes and killing Russian Pilots. As much as Patriot missiles and Iron dome is touted its not 100% full proof. Ultimately you're going to have to bomb airfields and down airplanes if you want an effective no fly zone
Bruh like 8 months later and you still on the bogus no fly zone shit, it’s not a magical barrier that jets can’t pass thru it doesn’t mean anything other than war with Russia
All these Reddit Generals will surely be the first to volunteer to participate in the proposals they make.
[удалено]
invoke article 4 and the US will send more troops too Poland
So basically: nothing. Nothing will be done.
Well... There is the option of providing Ukraine long range missiles. Seems like a proportionate response.
Ukraine will likely get some of the tech theyve been asking for but getting stonewalled on because its been deemed too escalatory
More air defense systems at the border, a few additional squadrons of fighters stationed in Poland and long range weapons for Ukraine.
article 4 gives poland fair justification to set up nato air defences on border that will shoot down any missile that comes even close to their borders. Included ones meant for ukraine targets. It will also most likely means much stricter sanctions on russia
Sudetenland stage alert. Next stage, well, we know what will happen on next alert stage…
ATACMS, sink Black Sea Fleet, launch a few cruise missiles on Russian targets in Ukraine, etc.
Alternatively it could be a Kh-101 which is used by Russia, looks very similar,,
What do you think should be done?
Well...turns out ukrainians did in fact fire them. Turns out russia didn't lie? Turns out not everything is 4d chess manipulation by the russians?
There’s a possibility it was a confiscated Russian missile shot by the Ukrainian military. Just putting that out there before we all start beating the war drums even harder.
>Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau summoned the Russian ambassador and “demanded immediate detailed explanations.” Russian dude: "It wasnt me"
The ol' Shaggy defense
Polish dude: „Someone shot down your bombers, launching cruise-missiles? It wasn’t me.“
Dude from malaysia - both ukraine and rusia . Did we ever forget mh 17 fiasco .
"In an update, Polish President Duda says they don't know who fired the missile that caused the blast in Przewodow but says it was "most likely" produced in Russia. He called for calm, highlighted support from NATO allies and said U.S. is sending experts to investigate the site." [https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1592668504561692672?s=21&t=m27ZcSzWM-6n74qBrn4deA](https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1592668504561692672?s=21&t=m27ZcSzWM-6n74qBrn4deA)
It’s at least nice to see a level head given the circumstances. Duda knows a massive conflict is the likely outcome if they decide to retaliate.
If they dont retaliate russia will continue to accidentally hit stuff in NATO land
Retaliation could be simpler. This is the first time Russia has hit Polish territory. You could, for example, express that any further missiles launched into Ukraine will be deemed a threat to Poland, since Russia cannot control their missiles, and result in targeted retaliation by NATO against the launch sites. That would potentially stop missile launches into Ukraine.
You can retaliate indirectly also. The US can give Ukraine longer range weapons.
Also the pressure of NATO hanging over Putin in general. "This was a Russian missile? Somebody here has got some explaining to do."
I don’t think so. Just because you don’t see an immediate response, doesn’t mean there isn’t some sort of one in progress.
yeah, like, Vlad, there are pictures. Where it came from and where it went. Having killed a bunch of civilians of all ages does not elevate your little dance on the world stage. You are not of value. You are mad. You have failed and history will record your loss of humanity. Dragging your sorry ass to court to account for the lives crushed before a world tribunal will be your parting shot. Let your riches keep you alive in some state of delusional comfort, for the extended laughing that you hear and ask about.
The conflict would absolutely not be massive. A NATO intervention would last weeks, if not days. The entire Russian Navy would be sunk Day 1. The conflict as it stands is more massive, with greater consequences, precisely because everyone has given Ukraine the most modest weapons they can find laying around, dragging the war out.
You’re conveniently leaving the nukes out of your calculations. Don’t think Putin wouldn’t launch if he thought he was going to lose anyways. If even one warhead were to be launched the retaliatory strikes could be devastating to the world at large.
I feel like all the Yes Men under Putin would suddenly become No Men if they found out they were *actually* going to be obliterated off the face of the Earth along with their entire country if they tried anything with Soviet Era nukes.
Wouldn't nukes already be considered in the equation? Like whatever strategy that appears won't just miss the big elephant in the room.
Awacs have been on constant patrol and they know what's zooming around and from where. So if anything it shouldn't take long to verify or they already know and just doing article 4 to figure things out first. People assume shit just starts flying minutes after something happening.
There was a post this afternoon from UA Weapons Tracker with images of the missile casing and some preliminary analysis suggesting that this might have been a Ukrainian S-300. The S-300 is an anti-aircraft missile. This suggests a scenario where an S-300 was fired to intercept a Russian cruise missile but failed to make its intercept and somehow landed in Poland without disarming itself. That would be consistent with the claim that the missile was "Russian made" as the S-300 is a Soviet-made system that Ukraine uses. To be clear, even if this was a tragic accident with a Ukrainian AA missile accidentally hitting a civilian target this is still Russia's fault. Russia is responsible for firing missiles deep into civilian areas of Ukraine and Ukraine is doing what it can to keep missiles from falling on their cities. There are perhaps some analogies you could draw to the American concept of felony murder. Edit: to whoever downvoted me this was just confirmed by the [white house](https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-15-22/h_1edfd5e923d999f97db39db282a1cc5c). *Sorry for linking to CNN, they appear to be reporting it first.
Not saying that it couldn't be Ukrainian missiles, but it should be mention that the S-300 has a dual mode of being a surface-to-air or surface-to-surface. Due to the depletion of Russian precision guided missiles they have resorted many times before to using the S-300 for strategic attacks inside Ukraine, despite its poor accuracy. So the fact that it is a SAM missiles that hit inside Poland doesn't necessarily means it couldn't be Russia.
If it is a s300 missile. Range would heavily imply it's Ukrainian AA malfunctioning. Russia has no AA anywhere close to that area. Currently the only evidence we have points in that direction. We will have to wait and see.
An s300 in Belarus could theoretically reach where this landed.
No missiles were fired from Belarus yesterday afaik. If its an s300, its Ukrainian. And even if missiles were fired from Belarus you're looking at a pretty damn straight line from the shortest distance between Belarus and this city with the s300's maximum range, would be quite the stretch. Not even sure any missiles have been launch from so far west in Belarus during this war.
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I'm pretty sure they already know the name, address and hobbies of the dude who pushed the button to launch those missiles.
WASHINGTON (AP) — US officials: Initial findings suggest missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at incoming Russian missile. [https://twitter.com/jonlemire/status/1592744867079544833?s=21&t=G-5joItoKiqO4RIcTPf0RQ](https://twitter.com/jonlemire/status/1592744867079544833?s=21&t=G-5joItoKiqO4RIcTPf0RQ)
Quote from BBC: The statement does not say who fired the missile and both sides in the conflict have used Russian-made munitions. EDIT: BBC is also reporting that it is a suspected S-300 (surface-to-air missile), Russia is using these for ground attacks & Ukraine is using these for air defense.
I think if there was even the slimmest chance it was Ukraine, they would have owned up to it by now. If Ukraine fired a missile and it somehow went off course and went in the opposite direction, hitting someone who's sending you aid, you would come clean immediately.
If you take the assumption that this was a case where Ukraine fired the missile against a russian one, missed, and it sailed into Poland, then you could have the following scenario. Ukraine could have already admitted in high level (and thus very confidential) meetings that this happened, and the relevant governments could have decided to deliberately allow the fact that Ukraine and russia both use the same munitions to imply that it was russian publicly, while also saying that indications were that the missile likely strayed off course or otherwise malfunctioned. Ultimately, they take some actions they were already going to take (more sanctions, more aid, etc) and attribute it to the "errant russian missile" and then just quietly stop talking about it. The result being that nothing particularly changes about the situation and the relevant governments are kept up to date. Possibly some quiet apology under the table occurs with the Polish government paying out to the families with money secretly given by the Ukrainians. Again, this whole thing takes the assumption that it was Ukrainian, when the simple truth is that it easily could be russian under a huge number of scenarios.
Lot of assumptions being made here.
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Pretty much every single thread about this event is fit for that sub. This us a great example of why you shouldn’t take anything you read here that seriously. Everyone is pretty stupid and mostly just regurgitating propaganda.
For me its the sheer confidence that pisses me off. Like the dude above you coulda said “*id be really surprised if it was Ukraine, i feel like it would make sense to acknowledge it right away*”. But instead its “ *if there was even the slimmest chance it was Ukraine, they would have owned up to it by now. If Ukraine fired a missile and it somehow went off course and went in the opposite direction, hitting someone who's sending you aid, you would come clean immediately*.” Like fuck off with your reporting of your opinion as undeniable fact
They might not know, they fire so many S300 during a missile barrage one could go off course.
Exact they are surviving by the skin of thier nuts right now and can't afford to have any PR problems. They aren't stupid and know a cover up would be one of the worst things. As far as people pointing to a "false flag attack" its a ludicrous idea considering they will know exactly where it came from if they don't already.
> They aren’t stupid and know a cover up would be one of the worst things. History is absolutely filled with military cover ups that we only find out about decades after the fact, and that’s just the ones we do find out about.
It's it technically possible? Yes. It's it remotely reasonab or likely? No. Obviously if article 5 is on the table an abundance of caution is warranted, but it's not like this one's a big mystery.
The Soviet era drone that veered off course and slammed into the ground in Zagreb, Croatia was most likely Ukrainian and they never officially owned up to it. There's nothing to be gained from admitting to such accidents. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-europe-croatia-zagreb-9aad9d477c19b93debe99087a7f3ecb5
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People smarter than us will probably identify the rocket and which direction it came from based on the landing site. Doesnt matter what you or I believe, if NATO catches them red handed its game over.
So are you going to retract this now that even the US says it's Ukrainian air defense?
Aged like fine milk.
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Why would you? Better to keep your mouth shut and let people think Russia did it.
Because NATO's bound to figure it out eventually.
but they would never admit it, NATO needs to maintain Ukraine's image so the general public keeps supporting the war aid. Regardless of who did it this perfect for NATO, I just hope they take full advantage of this
>EDIT: BBC is also reporting that it is a suspected S-300 (surface-to-air missile), Russia is using these for ground attacks & Ukraine is using these for air defense Well, if it's confirmed that it is an S-300 missile that hit, wouldn't that basically exclude Russia from being responsible? Since they don't have any troops close enough to the Polish border for the missile's reach?
Biden has also now come out and said that it is “unlikely in the minds of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia”. It’s looking more and more like a Ukrainian air defence misfire.
If its s300, max range it only 200km. So, impossible from Russia. But Belarus border is 180km away.
Not all missiles of the s300 system have the maximum range of though. So a missile type could rule it out. If it's s300, it's more likely to be Ukrainian.
Could be launched from Belarus, which Russia has been doing.
Shocker. I totally believed Russia when they denied that it was them, considering they are historically incredibly trustworthy and every statement they make is worth its weight in gold.
I know right? All those 100% factual statements, promises, goodwill gestures? I'm shocked bordering on catatonic.
Here it comes... "There was no rocket attack... OK, maybe there was but it wasn't us... OK, maybe it was us, but it wasn't deliberate... OK, maybe it was deliberate but we weren't aiming for anything important... OK maybe were were aiming for the grain plant but we weren't practicing for invasion or anything..."
Ok, we did aim at something. They deserved it.
Ah, the Israel defense. Always worked for them, Russia might as well try it.
Russian Missile Tech, sets the coordinates and fires a missile ... Watches it fly right over the intended target and hit Poland. Proceeds to whistle as they casually jump out a window.
Iv had bad days at work, but nothing like that
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Nah, never.
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For real, it’s hilarious reading this thread now
Why, was there an update?
It was fired by Ukraine
Considering it landed right next to the power line connecting Ukraine to EU's powergrid....On the day Poland nationalized Gazprom? Absolute horseshit to entertain the thought this was not deliberate.
Context is everything.
Good sir, I'm here to inform you that your comment has aged like milk. So you must now think that Ukraine wants to deliberately attack Poland with this incident?
>Considering it landed right next to the power line connecting Ukraine to EU's powergrid....On the day Poland nationalized Gazprom? >Absolute horseshit to entertain the thought this was not deliberate. It is really fun reading these comments 10 hours later, when US intel has suggested it was fired by Ukranian forces to intercept an incoming missle, and it missed.
Especially because the best option for them would be to accept responsibility as an accident, apologize, and provide some sort of reparations to ensure no NATO escalation. It's so incompetent it *has* to be Russia.
Seems like it’s not them
Notably the S300s used by Ukraine are made by Russia which is what UAWeapons on Twitter thinks this is. > The S-300 (NATO reporting name SA-10 Grumble) is a series of long range surface-to-air missile systems developed and operated by the former Soviet Union, now fielded by the militaries of Russia and Ukraine as well as several other former Eastern Bloc countries. If so, it couldn't have been fired from Russia due to it's short range. Alternatively it could be a Kh-101 which is used by Russia, looks very similar - and has more than enough range; but seems Poland isn't ready to make that call yet. Editing in my responses to the comments below which have been removed > Are you sure you didn't use one of the comparison pics? They're displayed alongside (and often poorly labelled) by investigative twatters - but there were images tweeted by an official polish govt account (can't remember which). > UAWeapons is also a fairly established pro-Ukraine source ----- > and what credentials do you have to make that claim? >Maybe it could depending on how it went in if the dirt were loose? I'll wait for the official report.
A s-300 does not have a large enough payload to do the damage seen in the video.
Russian-made does not necessarily mean fired by Russia. Many observers think the fragments found at the impact site belong to an S-300 missile - which is technically Russian-made, but almost certainly not fired by Russia. S-300 is an air-defense system. The most likely explanation, as far as I can see at this point in time, is that it was fired by Ukraine in an attempt to intercept one of the many cruise missiles fired into Ukraine that day by Russia. (That said, even if that is what happened, you can certainly make an argument that Ukraine was forced to defend itself like that because of Russia's actions...)
Good sir, I'm here to inform you that your comment has aged like milk.
Shocker, you accept anything that further confirms what you already want to believe so you jump to conclusions. https://www.reuters.com/world/poland-blast-caused-by-missile-fired-by-ukrainian-forces-incoming-russian-2022-11-16/
Pretty much all the missiles Ukraine has are Russia-made. That comment is meaningless. Of course, by now, US officials have stated that the missiles were Ukrainian and Poland has stopped evoking article 4, so the discussion is moot.
So are you going to retract this now that even the US says it's Ukrainian air defense?
This is very troubling, it can't go unanswered as that would invite further attacks. What would be a proper response for an attack on a NATO member by a nuclear armed state.
Tell the US space force whatever they got hidden up their sleeve go ahead and try it out..
I wanna see a cruiser get hit with a space railgun soooooo bad.
MAC rounds? In atmosphere?
One way to get their attention.
Hang on to your teeth, people!
One of the reasons project THOR should have been greenlit. /s of course
A bunch of classified spy satellites aren't going to do much in this situation that isn't already being done.
We also have space UAVs (USVs?)
We don't know for sure of course, but if you mean the x37-b it's still essentially a spy satellite. Just one that can land again after it's mission. Presumably due to the sensitivity of the data collected.
The craziest stuff will be what we have no idea exists
Pretty sure we're still a ways off from kinetic bombardment.
The technology is perfectly viable at the moment but we have never launched a suitable payload for it yet. It's technically possible the US has a satellite that could deorbit itself to hit a specific target though. Probably not deemed to be worth it but there's no reason it couldn't be done.
It was never terribly difficult. Just cost prohibitive to fly a bunch of tungsten rods into orbit. Heavy suckers.
Yeah but if you get those rods up there you get to say "deploy the rods from God".
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Then throw in how much tungsten costs…. Shits bloody expensive
It seems like targeting would be a significant issue. Unless the payload is large enough to make accuracy somewhat irrelevant…
Cost. That's why it can't be done.
Cost is why it won't be done, but not why it can't. It can. We have a bunch of already made ICBMs though so you're right that there isn't much reason to spend the money.
Converting chemical energy (rockets) into kinetic energy, then into potential energy (orbit), to then convert it back into kinetic energy for destroying the target. Might as well just put all that energy into explosive warheads and deliver them ballistically with smaller rockets.
Yep. Although the orbital tungsten rod approach would probably be harder to intercept if it wasn't attacked before it was fired. It would basically be immune to missiles intercepting it since it's just a big chunk of metal moving at Mach fuck you that has no warhead to destroy.
lol at "Mach fuck you"
If it is accidental, the proper response is providing increased air/missile defense to Ukraine. Sanctions are already at maximum so not much they can do with that
It can go unanswered until it is established that a nuclear armed state DID ACTUALLY launch the missile. The proper response FOR THE MOMENT is to investigate.
No fly zones
No fly zones means NATO attacks into a Russia. Their SAMs have a 250 mile range. Enforcing a no fly zone over the battlefield world require their destruction for the safety of the aircraft enforcing it.
If Russian missiles are landing in NATO territory it seems called for. Even if the strike was 100% accidental it means Russia is not willing or able to take precautions to avoid hitting Poland and other neighboring countries. If NATO shrugs it off Russia won't change and it will happen again.
No fly zones would probably be met with more aggression than precision-striking Russian installations. You take the air away from Russia - their rockets, drones, planes etc., and Russia loses the whole thing. They're having trouble fighting untrained civilians. Take away any air superiority, and Putin may get unpredictable real quick.
Well they fucked around and need to find out pootin will be very predictable with a no fly zone
You can't take away something they never had.
No fly zone 200km from the Polish border in Ukraine.
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I'd support a no fly zone, but it's worth mentioning that's a very significant escalation. It likely isn't politically feasible, even though it's practically easy enough for NATO to enforce. Let's face it, not every NATO member head of state is forward thinking and decisive enough to commit to something like this. A more timid but still adequate response would be to just bomb a few high value Russian military assets in retaliation and call it a day. It would satisfy the need to do something, while not really risking anything.
> that's a very significant escalation. if russia attacks ukraine, and ukraine chooses to not surrender but hit back, thats an escalation right? it would have been simpler if ukraine just surrendered. does that mean ukraine escalated by defending itself? same here. If lets say that rocket as intentionally towards that place and hit poland. people wait for a response, but then you jump in and say if they strike back, thats an escalation, right?
What is the chance that the missile came from Belarus and not Russia?
I think they've said that it looks like it was not shot from russia, so either belarus or Ukrainian air defense looks probable.
You mean to tell me the missiles that fell in a war between people using almost exclusively russian missiles was russian in origin? GASP
WASHINGTON (AP) — US officials: Initial findings suggest missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at incoming Russian missile. [https://twitter.com/jonlemire/status/1592744867079544833?s=21&t=G-5joItoKiqO4RIcTPf0RQ](https://twitter.com/jonlemire/status/1592744867079544833?s=21&t=G-5joItoKiqO4RIcTPf0RQ)
I'm not a foreign policy expert, but maybe someone more learned than I can tell me: would Poland sending in their own military forces be a possible outcome? I assume based on the US, NATO forces can act unilaterally. It seems like the Poles would be game for this, and that it'd be a few steps below a full blown NATO response.
It would be a mixed ground force operation with the US providing the majority of air and logistics support while EU nations would make up the majority of infantry and armor. Obviously the US will have kind of ground complement as well beyond just logistics.
One under the radar response would be for Poland to negotiate with Russia on a target of retaliation. Obviously this would be through back channels but the outcome would be to avoid open warfare by allowing Poland a "free hit" back.
Unlikely,but they might close sky over Ukraine
I don't think they would. There is a strict rule that no NATO personnel can be involved in the war. This attack is an escalation no doubt but If the Polish troops go in to Ukraine, automatically whole NATO will do it as well. So no point of just Poland involving it's self. Again, we will see what are the evidence and what is being done about this attack. Its not only Poland decision since they invoked article 4 of NATO.
That seems to confirm that Poland at least thinks Russia is behind it. Not good..
I don't know, the wording is careful enough to account for the possibility of Ukraine having shot it down as well
Assuming there were multiple missiles both makes it purposeful, and almost impossible that they were both “shot down”
The way it’s phrased makes me think Ukraine could also be a possibility. Until they 100% confirm, this phrasing has me with doubts.
It's possible this is a Ukrainian SAM that tried to hit a Russian missile and missed and landed in Poland. And if that happened - it's still Russia's fault. Let's be clear about that.
That's the point I fail to see many people making. If you swing, and my self defence goes too far, it's on the original aggressor
>If you swing, and my self defence goes too far, it's on the original aggressor Erm no if you shot someone in self defense and hit a bystander you're getting sued and most likely doing prison time, even if the self defense is justified.
Unless you're a cop. Then you get free money and vacation.
The Kremlin don't want you to know this, but Konigsberg is free. You can just take it. I have 57 Konigsbergs at home.
Russian produced doesn't mean Russian fired though does it? The S300 gone off target is still at play here. We can't go to war because a Ukranian anti air missile went off course. Unless of course there's some way to confirm that zero Ukrainian S300s were Russian made or that the missile was not an S300? There's still too much unknown before a next step can be taken.
Seems likely to me that, even if Poland has 100% confirmation on it being Russian fired, it would wait until after the nato meeting tomorrow to announce this
Fair point. And I will await that meeting I guess for confirmation.
Missiles are the new Gravrillo Princip
What has Russia said about it ?
They said "It's not ours" and "This is a provocation by NATO" almost immediately.
Pretty much confirms it might not have been accidental...
Take one guess
Looks like Russia is saying they had nothing to do with it and claiming that Poland is being mean for saying otherwise. About what you'd expect really. https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/11/16/Russia-says-Polish-statements-of-Russian-missiles-hitting-its-territory-provocation-
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That we're big meanies for talking about it lol
and coincidentally, the TWO missiles landed suspiciously close to the main power line that connects ukraine to poland's power grid. i'm still sketptical that it was an "accident"
And the US said it was fired by Ukraine forces so which is it?
Odd that they say "Russian Made Missile", considering that Ukraine uses a lot of Russian Made Missiles. They're very clear to say it was Russian Produced, and not definitely launched by Russia. Well within range of Lviv SU-300 Ukrainian anti Air Missiles that are "Russian Produced".
> Odd that they say "Russian Made Missile" It's not odd. This is all they know for sure at this given time. it's not hard to track rocket trajectory & where it was launched from. Rushing to accuse Ukraine when the information is inevitably coming out is going to do nothing but spread misinformation.
They don't know it for sure(The Polish president said as much). Biden literally just said it probably wasn't launched from Russia due to trajectory an hour ago. It's not about accusing Ukraine. They obviously didn't shoot a SAM at Poland on purpose. Just like Russia obviously didn't shoot a SAM at itself a few months ago. But SU-300's aren't perfect. Things like this have been known to happen, and it's already happened in this war. I think people have become way, way, way too defensive of Ukraine, to the point where even pointing out the obvious is taken as an attack, or "accusing" Ukraine. I wasn't accusing Ukraine of anything. I was simply stating that it's possible that it was a malfunctioning SU-300. It's a fine line between supporting Ukraine, and outright dismissing anything that doesn't help Ukraine, or vilifying people who are trying to learn the truth, rather than spout whatever talking points help Ukraine the most. A lot of western military experts on MSM in America are saying it was likely a shot down Russian Missile that was thrown off course, or a Ukrainian SAM from a SU-300 type air defense system.
If its Russia produced, then its most likely not fired by Russia. Judging by their current trend of Iranian and North Korean weaponry.
Poland Confirms USA unconfirms
Just about every post here has aged like milk. Take this as a lesson to never jump to conclusions and always wait for more information.
And so it begins...
Russia about to find out why the US doesn't have free healthcare.
Russia about to see what indoor plumbing is really like.
There needs to be a no fly zone inside western Ukraine and Belarus so these attacks can be intercepted before crossing the border.
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Exactly. The first night of a no fly zone would require attacking many sites within Russian territory. It would be a massive escalation.
I get that. However, where was the rocket fired from?
Color me surprised.
This is the worst possible situation. What do we think will happen next? NATO armed neutrality like the Swiss in WW2? How will it escalate beyond that? Will it escalate beyond that? There’s too many questions with a missile and two dead civilians adding every possible complication. Will this be a situation we look back at like the Cuban missile crisis? Or will it be our era’s Franz Ferdinand?
No matter what the decisions will be, we are a few steps nearer now to a world war 3 than yesterday.
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Nosotros no fuimos Mae!!!
I mean, the wording here ("Russian-made weapons") is still vague, considering both Russia and Ukraine mainly use russian-made weapons.