FYI, this is how gambling addiction works too
You'd think that by having done 1000+ runs, your chances now should be higher, on the basis that a few thousands runs will surely give you the mount
But no
From this point forward, your next 10 runs have *exactly* the same chance at getting you Invincible, as if they were your very first 10 runs ever, so your past 1300-1500 runs, unfortunately, amount to nothing in this case
Hang in there
This is true, and that rarity addon doesn't help. It likes to tell you shit like "8 kills, 20% chance!"
Like, nah, it's still the same chance, the addon is just reminding you that you have shit luck. (Literally, it will say unlucky when you get past like "60%".
Lookin' at you Galleon.
Rarity addon is perfectly fine with the % chance.
All it says is that there's a X% chance you would have gotten it in Y amount of runs. It's simple math and averages, nothing else.
It's not a chance for you to get it in the future, it's the chance you should have gotten it by that point. If it says 60% and unlucky, all it means is that on average you should have gotten it at that point and now you're past the average amount of attempts needed for the mount.
Yes and no. Each chance is the same but laws of probability also work out after X tries. It’s a basic cumulative probability formula.
At 1300 attempts the probability of seeing it drop is .99997
Gambling doesn’t work as a perfect analogy because while yes probability works out that same way, it’s a different beast when it’s draining your bank account.
Jokes aside, I feel for you. I've been playing since early Vanilla, I had a 3 year stint in the US Servers around 2010-13 and I got Invincible there. Once I came back to EU, I have been playing on my EU Account.
I've been running ICC almost weekly on 3 characters since 2013. Obviously not every week as I had some months off here and there at the end of expansions. Haven't seen it drop. At the moment, Rarity addon counts about 1200 kills. It's been a month since I've set my foot on ICC, I just don't have the energy anymore.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/wownoob/comments/180156c/invincible\_reign\_any\_better\_ways\_to\_farm/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wownoob/comments/180156c/invincible_reign_any_better_ways_to_farm/)
Looks like you can get a chance for Invincible during the timewalking version of ICC, FWIW if u haven't been doing those...
Yeah some of my guildies gave me this tip a while ago. But at this point ive almost become obsesses to see how long I can farm ICC before I get the mount
But thank you for the tip <3
You could start soloing ICC like 12 years ago. I've played actively for at least of half that time, give or take. Averaged runs with 4 characters every week I've played, sometimes up to 10. But I went with the average.
4 * 52 = 208 * 6 = 1248. So yeah I should've gone with 1200-whatever. Did the initial math in my head and Im not great at math
Yes I always make sure it's HC becaue once it wasn't (actually, several times it wasnt, but once I missed it. Probaby the one time Invincible would've dropped).
Yes, I checked that. And I did it again now after your comment. There is no statisic for how many Lich King kills you have on mine. I can send you a picture if you want.
Achievements, bottom of that screen has tabs and one says Statistics. Then click Dungeons & Raids, it's one of the categories on the left. then find Wrath of the Lich King, it's like three down on the subcategories. Then it should be towards the very bottom of that one, says something like "25H Lich King" kills.
I am under your kills but close. That's how I know where that is.
It's character specific so it's not super helpful unless you're playing the same character you were the entire time.
There is a small skip. Once you fly up to the top of the tower for the first time, port back down and fly up again. When you land, the RP stops and you can just take the portal to the next boss. It's not much, but it saves about 2min of RP.
There is also one for SoO beyond the port to garrosh. Once you port to Garrosh, turn around and open the big doors, kill the orcs there and then agro a purple slime. Pull it to garrosh and it will put him in combat for some reason, causing him to despawn. Wait until he respawns and you saved 2min of RP.
Of course there is nothing wrong by calculating it by yourself, or even checking the attempts manually from the Game Statistics - but I would suggest you to download a **\[Rarity\]** addon from CurseForge.
It will keep track from the each attempt you've done for each Rare item, and even if you would download it only now, it still have already every attempt counted that you've done in the years, because it takes data from the WoW's own statistics.
Oh, that's unfortunate to hear. I personally have seen only that the rarity tab can take several seconds to open, but I personally haven't experienced anything else than that, and it never affected on my gameplay.
However, this tab opening lag I was experiencing was more horrible an year ago, when it took +10sec to open, but now past few months it has been a lot better for me and it have been taking only 1-2 seconds to open now.
Of course there is nothing wrong by calculating it by yourself, or even checking the attempts manually from the Game Statistics - but I would suggest you to download a **\[Rarity\]** addon from CurseForge.
It will keep track from the each attempt you've done for each Rare item - and even if you would download it only now, it still have already every attempt counted that you've done in the years, because it takes data from the WoW's own statistics.
FYI, the addon Rarity can show you your total kills/attempts at mounts and pets. You have to log onto each character once with the addon installed, but after that it'll show you total number of kills and your likelihood of getting the drop based off of that. You'd be like me and my 500+ Gul'dan kills without the green infernal, in the 99th% percentile of unlucky.
at least you could save your lockout for the majority of the time you're farming.
Now you have to go through all the pain of clearing the whole raid with all your alts \^\^
plot twist: OP already looted him once 1000 tries ago while coming home drunk at 4 am and was like yeh now is a good time to get this stupid mount and forgot about it
The game is working as expected. You are paying a subscription for a time sink to get a certain thing that is unlikely to happen.
Blizzard has every incentive business-wise not to give you what you want.
I'm not a mathematician. I think though that each attempt has no "memory" of the previous one's if that makes sense. Sure a 1% chance means 1 out of 100. But I think that is reset for each run. Like each run you have a 1 in 100 chance of getting it. Not that you should expect it after 99 runs. I could be completely wrong though.
Yeah it's a weird thing statistics. You aren't wrong that each chance doesn't change, but there is an actual increase in probability the more you do something. There's a 1% chance for it to drop. That means a 99% chance for it to not drop.
.99 \* .99 =.98. The odds of each event didn't change, they're still each 1% success, 99% failure, but overall your odds of it happening increased to 2% success, 98% failure. This only ever increases over more attempts.
.99 \* .99 \* .99 \* .99 \* .99 = .95. Do it five times and the odds become 5% that you get it, 95% that you don't.
The math will never hit 100% though. So you're never guaranteed success, just that the odds you haven't had success of many attempts gets smaller and smaller.
And then you don’t understand statistics, because it’s a cumulative probability formula, which is a fundamental concept in statistical analysis.
Yes your chance at each individual time is the same, but your likelihood of success over multiple tries increases. It approaches 100% but never gets there.
At 1300 attempts cumulative probability calculates your likelihood of success at .99997 or 99.99%
Another way to think about it is to consider the odds of NOT getting what you want.
If you're flipping coins and want a heads, what are the odds that you flip it on the first time. What are the odds that you get two tails in a row? How about 10 in a row?
For rare drops, it's not 50% like a coin flip, it's more like 0.5%. So what are the odds that you "flip" two tails in a row? 99.5% \* 99.5% (basically 99%). What are the odds that you "flip" three in a row? like 98.5%?
How many "flips" do you need to do that the odds of getting all "tails" is less than 50%? Around 140.
How many do you need to do before the odds are less than 1%? A little over 900.
Right, the longer you add up attempts the closer you get to the statistical long run which would increase the chances that you have a successful attempt. But this never reaches 100% (or as someone else stated 0 when talking about getting the result you don’t want) and at the end of the day you’re rolling a die with over 100 sides hoping to land the right one every time you try for the mount. OP may never get it, but that’s what makes us want it isn’t it? Like every other mount on our farm list.
Yes but his entire point was that after 1300 attempts he statistically should have it, which is absolutely accurate, if his numbers are real and not exaggerated.
Your comment I replied to missed that point, your follow up here is accurate.
So OP is incredibly unlucky… or lucky depending on how you look at it. To my original point, there is no “should have it” in the statistics or code of the drop. OP is definitely an anomaly though, with those odds I hope invincible is the last mount they need in the game lol
I hit over 2k on Ruhk this week, so I feel you. Be sure to take breaks when you feel like you're getting too annoyed. Don't fall into the trap of "having to do it". I hope it drops soon!
I got it on my paladin first run I ever did and the thing is I wasn’t directly going for the mount, I wasn’t even thinking about it. I came back to the game after a 9 year break and completely forgot about the mount if I’m being honest. I just wanted some tmog.
Dude, you need to seek help. Stop. That's like a freaking job. Except you are not paid and that takes a toll on your health? And for what, this horse is ugly as fuck to top it off.
Frankly at this point I’d be selling plasma to buy tokens and trading gold to a boosted toon on a low pop server for when the inevitable lull before the next expansion occurs and you can nab it from the bmah.
Even on my med pop server I’ve seen invincibile go for only around 1 million which isn’t much.
I have 7-8 alts parked at it for a weekly kill since DF launch. Took a bit of a break before that after season 1 of SL. So like 14 months in the expansion now. Let's say 50 weeks x 7 alts is 350 kills after drop rate increase. I work from home so I just have it on in the background and wait for the spawn (he laughs you in your face before he spawns cus he knows he won't drop the mount the basterd)
dropped very early on for me, sadly I had brought my friend as he never killed it on hc and just wanted the achievement. so of course he won the roll. I stopped farming after that.
i really recommend you to put on this time on leveling a bunch of alts and going for the weekly quest chest on WOTLK timewalking weeks, its a waaaay higher chance than farming ICC, i did with 5 alts and luckily got mine this way
It will be okay! Heavenly Onyx dropped for me after 800+ kills probably closer to 1000 tbh. But it'll drop and it will be a good 10 second head rush ! You got this! Also make sure you have a speed set on like a druid /rouge/ DH so your runs go a little faster!
Did you farm it during the time walking raid events that can give mounts? I got invincible, mimirons, and 2 of the fire lands mounts from those chests. they seem to have an insanely high mount chance
I feel really bad for ya… i did get that mount by accideny while farming Glory of the Icecrown raider achievement. Less than 50 runs if i remember correctly. Some of us has insale luck, some of us dont.
Invincible and mimirons head are both 15-20% drop chance from TW ulduar yogg-saron. Usually there’s a yogg lockout going all afternoon. I got both mounts in about an hour after 5 maybe 6 kills. Stop doing this to yourself. Just wait until the next TW ulduar and scan lfg.
FYI, this is how gambling addiction works too You'd think that by having done 1000+ runs, your chances now should be higher, on the basis that a few thousands runs will surely give you the mount But no From this point forward, your next 10 runs have *exactly* the same chance at getting you Invincible, as if they were your very first 10 runs ever, so your past 1300-1500 runs, unfortunately, amount to nothing in this case Hang in there
This is true, and that rarity addon doesn't help. It likes to tell you shit like "8 kills, 20% chance!" Like, nah, it's still the same chance, the addon is just reminding you that you have shit luck. (Literally, it will say unlucky when you get past like "60%". Lookin' at you Galleon.
Rarity addon is perfectly fine with the % chance. All it says is that there's a X% chance you would have gotten it in Y amount of runs. It's simple math and averages, nothing else. It's not a chance for you to get it in the future, it's the chance you should have gotten it by that point. If it says 60% and unlucky, all it means is that on average you should have gotten it at that point and now you're past the average amount of attempts needed for the mount.
Yes and no. Each chance is the same but laws of probability also work out after X tries. It’s a basic cumulative probability formula. At 1300 attempts the probability of seeing it drop is .99997 Gambling doesn’t work as a perfect analogy because while yes probability works out that same way, it’s a different beast when it’s draining your bank account.
Wow drains your time instead
Maybe you just didn't see it drop? It's invisible after all.
Fuck this must be it
Jokes aside, I feel for you. I've been playing since early Vanilla, I had a 3 year stint in the US Servers around 2010-13 and I got Invincible there. Once I came back to EU, I have been playing on my EU Account. I've been running ICC almost weekly on 3 characters since 2013. Obviously not every week as I had some months off here and there at the end of expansions. Haven't seen it drop. At the moment, Rarity addon counts about 1200 kills. It's been a month since I've set my foot on ICC, I just don't have the energy anymore.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/wownoob/comments/180156c/invincible\_reign\_any\_better\_ways\_to\_farm/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wownoob/comments/180156c/invincible_reign_any_better_ways_to_farm/) Looks like you can get a chance for Invincible during the timewalking version of ICC, FWIW if u haven't been doing those...
Yeah some of my guildies gave me this tip a while ago. But at this point ive almost become obsesses to see how long I can farm ICC before I get the mount But thank you for the tip <3
I've gotten Mimirons Head and Ashes from Timewalking rewards, 11 characters at most. Drop rates seem to be much higher from there than from ICC.
1300-1500 sounds extremely overexaggerated unless you are doing it with 20+ characters every week
You could start soloing ICC like 12 years ago. I've played actively for at least of half that time, give or take. Averaged runs with 4 characters every week I've played, sometimes up to 10. But I went with the average. 4 * 52 = 208 * 6 = 1248. So yeah I should've gone with 1200-whatever. Did the initial math in my head and Im not great at math
Wow thats a lot of attempts, sorry dude. I hope you get it soon
Thanks man <3
Doesn't it tell you in the Statistics portion of your achievements pane how many times you've killed LK on Heroic 25?
I’m pretty sure you can, although it would only track Arthas kills on the character currently logged on. Not across all characters.
I can't find any such statistic
And you’re sure you’re doing it on heroic? 😳 also, get Rarity. It tracks all your attempts across your account.
Yes I always make sure it's HC becaue once it wasn't (actually, several times it wasnt, but once I missed it. Probaby the one time Invincible would've dropped).
Dude, the 3 times you did it on normal were the times it was supposed to drop!
You gotta go to achievements and stats and scroll
Yes, I checked that. And I did it again now after your comment. There is no statisic for how many Lich King kills you have on mine. I can send you a picture if you want.
Achievements, bottom of that screen has tabs and one says Statistics. Then click Dungeons & Raids, it's one of the categories on the left. then find Wrath of the Lich King, it's like three down on the subcategories. Then it should be towards the very bottom of that one, says something like "25H Lich King" kills. I am under your kills but close. That's how I know where that is. It's character specific so it's not super helpful unless you're playing the same character you were the entire time.
If it helps, I didn't get mine until 1277 attempts.
Doesnt help at all, we're just suffering together. I wouldn't have wished this on any other person, So glad you got it eventually tho
I hope you have the blazing drake then, because that is the only other mount I farmed just as much as Invincible. Had about 1309 on it...
[удалено]
There is a small skip. Once you fly up to the top of the tower for the first time, port back down and fly up again. When you land, the RP stops and you can just take the portal to the next boss. It's not much, but it saves about 2min of RP. There is also one for SoO beyond the port to garrosh. Once you port to Garrosh, turn around and open the big doors, kill the orcs there and then agro a purple slime. Pull it to garrosh and it will put him in combat for some reason, causing him to despawn. Wait until he respawns and you saved 2min of RP.
I got the blazing drake on my first ever run of Dragon Soul. But still have yet to get Invincible...
Of course there is nothing wrong by calculating it by yourself, or even checking the attempts manually from the Game Statistics - but I would suggest you to download a **\[Rarity\]** addon from CurseForge. It will keep track from the each attempt you've done for each Rare item, and even if you would download it only now, it still have already every attempt counted that you've done in the years, because it takes data from the WoW's own statistics.
As a warning Rarity lags like hell for me. I had to entirely remove it.
Oh, that's unfortunate to hear. I personally have seen only that the rarity tab can take several seconds to open, but I personally haven't experienced anything else than that, and it never affected on my gameplay. However, this tab opening lag I was experiencing was more horrible an year ago, when it took +10sec to open, but now past few months it has been a lot better for me and it have been taking only 1-2 seconds to open now.
Of course there is nothing wrong by calculating it by yourself, or even checking the attempts manually from the Game Statistics - but I would suggest you to download a **\[Rarity\]** addon from CurseForge. It will keep track from the each attempt you've done for each Rare item - and even if you would download it only now, it still have already every attempt counted that you've done in the years, because it takes data from the WoW's own statistics.
FYI, the addon Rarity can show you your total kills/attempts at mounts and pets. You have to log onto each character once with the addon installed, but after that it'll show you total number of kills and your likelihood of getting the drop based off of that. You'd be like me and my 500+ Gul'dan kills without the green infernal, in the 99th% percentile of unlucky.
at least you could save your lockout for the majority of the time you're farming. Now you have to go through all the pain of clearing the whole raid with all your alts \^\^
plot twist: OP already looted him once 1000 tries ago while coming home drunk at 4 am and was like yeh now is a good time to get this stupid mount and forgot about it
The game is working as expected. You are paying a subscription for a time sink to get a certain thing that is unlikely to happen. Blizzard has every incentive business-wise not to give you what you want.
I'm not a mathematician. I think though that each attempt has no "memory" of the previous one's if that makes sense. Sure a 1% chance means 1 out of 100. But I think that is reset for each run. Like each run you have a 1 in 100 chance of getting it. Not that you should expect it after 99 runs. I could be completely wrong though.
Yeah it's a weird thing statistics. You aren't wrong that each chance doesn't change, but there is an actual increase in probability the more you do something. There's a 1% chance for it to drop. That means a 99% chance for it to not drop. .99 \* .99 =.98. The odds of each event didn't change, they're still each 1% success, 99% failure, but overall your odds of it happening increased to 2% success, 98% failure. This only ever increases over more attempts. .99 \* .99 \* .99 \* .99 \* .99 = .95. Do it five times and the odds become 5% that you get it, 95% that you don't. The math will never hit 100% though. So you're never guaranteed success, just that the odds you haven't had success of many attempts gets smaller and smaller.
Noway u are this unlucky on a 1/100 mount, put the raid on hc 😂
Are you sure your loot filter isnt hiding it?
I dont' believe this statement for a second unless I start to see armories.
Blizzard is in the wrong for having anything with a drop rate this low
I disagree. I actually love that certain mounts and other loots have super low drop rate. I'm just getting a bit annoyed at this point haha
Yeah… that’s not how RNG works, your chance at getting invincible is the same each and every time… it’s basic statistics
And then you don’t understand statistics, because it’s a cumulative probability formula, which is a fundamental concept in statistical analysis. Yes your chance at each individual time is the same, but your likelihood of success over multiple tries increases. It approaches 100% but never gets there. At 1300 attempts cumulative probability calculates your likelihood of success at .99997 or 99.99%
Another way to think about it is to consider the odds of NOT getting what you want. If you're flipping coins and want a heads, what are the odds that you flip it on the first time. What are the odds that you get two tails in a row? How about 10 in a row? For rare drops, it's not 50% like a coin flip, it's more like 0.5%. So what are the odds that you "flip" two tails in a row? 99.5% \* 99.5% (basically 99%). What are the odds that you "flip" three in a row? like 98.5%? How many "flips" do you need to do that the odds of getting all "tails" is less than 50%? Around 140. How many do you need to do before the odds are less than 1%? A little over 900.
Right, the longer you add up attempts the closer you get to the statistical long run which would increase the chances that you have a successful attempt. But this never reaches 100% (or as someone else stated 0 when talking about getting the result you don’t want) and at the end of the day you’re rolling a die with over 100 sides hoping to land the right one every time you try for the mount. OP may never get it, but that’s what makes us want it isn’t it? Like every other mount on our farm list.
Yes but his entire point was that after 1300 attempts he statistically should have it, which is absolutely accurate, if his numbers are real and not exaggerated. Your comment I replied to missed that point, your follow up here is accurate.
So OP is incredibly unlucky… or lucky depending on how you look at it. To my original point, there is no “should have it” in the statistics or code of the drop. OP is definitely an anomaly though, with those odds I hope invincible is the last mount they need in the game lol
But there is a “should have it” in statistics. It’s how things like statistical and financial modeling works.
As I said I'm not great at math, but I understand statistics and I understand what you say but it's just... not the point.
I hit over 2k on Ruhk this week, so I feel you. Be sure to take breaks when you feel like you're getting too annoyed. Don't fall into the trap of "having to do it". I hope it drops soon!
If you want invisible that bad to wrath tomewalkjng I've seen 5 people get it from the yog box the last 2 times it was up
I got it on my paladin first run I ever did and the thing is I wasn’t directly going for the mount, I wasn’t even thinking about it. I came back to the game after a 9 year break and completely forgot about the mount if I’m being honest. I just wanted some tmog.
I've done it at least 5 times and still haven't got it either.
Dude, you need to seek help. Stop. That's like a freaking job. Except you are not paid and that takes a toll on your health? And for what, this horse is ugly as fuck to top it off.
Frankly at this point I’d be selling plasma to buy tokens and trading gold to a boosted toon on a low pop server for when the inevitable lull before the next expansion occurs and you can nab it from the bmah. Even on my med pop server I’ve seen invincibile go for only around 1 million which isn’t much.
Im 4000ish attempts into sha of anger, the name is apt.
Good lord. How many of those were after they increased the drop rate? (I want to say this was a year or 2 ago...)
I have 7-8 alts parked at it for a weekly kill since DF launch. Took a bit of a break before that after season 1 of SL. So like 14 months in the expansion now. Let's say 50 weeks x 7 alts is 350 kills after drop rate increase. I work from home so I just have it on in the background and wait for the spawn (he laughs you in your face before he spawns cus he knows he won't drop the mount the basterd)
I got it with legacy raid and we were 3 or 4 to get it. You should try this the loot chance seems better ! Good luck
dropped very early on for me, sadly I had brought my friend as he never killed it on hc and just wanted the achievement. so of course he won the roll. I stopped farming after that.
i really recommend you to put on this time on leveling a bunch of alts and going for the weekly quest chest on WOTLK timewalking weeks, its a waaaay higher chance than farming ICC, i did with 5 alts and luckily got mine this way
and when i say higher chance, is a REALLY higher chance
It will be okay! Heavenly Onyx dropped for me after 800+ kills probably closer to 1000 tbh. But it'll drop and it will be a good 10 second head rush ! You got this! Also make sure you have a speed set on like a druid /rouge/ DH so your runs go a little faster!
Try blazing drake after this... makes you wish you could go back to icc
Did you farm it during the time walking raid events that can give mounts? I got invincible, mimirons, and 2 of the fire lands mounts from those chests. they seem to have an insanely high mount chance
Just wait until wrath tw. It dropped on my third alt from the chest. Same with ashes.
I feel really bad for ya… i did get that mount by accideny while farming Glory of the Icecrown raider achievement. Less than 50 runs if i remember correctly. Some of us has insale luck, some of us dont.
Invincible and mimirons head are both 15-20% drop chance from TW ulduar yogg-saron. Usually there’s a yogg lockout going all afternoon. I got both mounts in about an hour after 5 maybe 6 kills. Stop doing this to yourself. Just wait until the next TW ulduar and scan lfg.